2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：震荡偏强 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆小幅收涨，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货产区稳定、销区补涨，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260129 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节后淡季预期未变 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，供应矛盾扩大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：震荡偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,270 | 涨跌幅 0.35% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,344 | 涨跌幅 0.80% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.19%, reaching 29.3655 points, with a peak of 29.5851 points recorded at 23:06 Beijing time [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures Performance - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.00% [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 2.29% [1] - CBOT soybean futures gained 0.70%, closing at $10.7475 per bushel, with a high of $10.8475 recorded at 22:41 [1] - Soybean meal futures increased by 1.22% [1] - Soybean oil futures decreased by 0.11% [1]

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月28日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，原糖期货跌 0.74%报14.72美分/磅，棉花期货跌0.3%报63.64美分/磅，可可期货跌6.47%报4146美元/吨，咖啡期货跌 4.42%报351美分/磅。 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Meal Daily Report" [1] - Date: January 28, 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Futures practice certificate number: F3045719 [2] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0015458 [2] - Contact information: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal: Futures prices in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao showed increases; spot basis decreased by 10 in different regions [3] - For rapeseed meal: Futures prices in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi showed increases; spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi increased by 4, while in Nantong it decreased by 26 [3] Monthly Spread - For soybean meal: 15 - spread decreased by 3, 59 - spread decreased by 8, 91 - spread increased by 11 [3] - For rapeseed meal: 15 - spread decreased by 15, 59 - spread increased by 10, 91 - spread increased by 5 [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - Bean - rapeseed 01 spread increased slightly, bean - rapeseed 09 spread increased, and oil - meal ratio 01 also increased slightly [3] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 6, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal increased by 30, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased by 6 [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market was strong due to dry weather after a short - term decline; South American market quotes rose slightly; the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets were also strong; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed; the near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was strong [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean: Carry - over stocks were raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels; quarterly grain stocks were also bearish, reaching 3.29 billion bushels, higher than the market estimate of 3.25 billion bushels; exports improved, but the supply - demand was still relatively loose [4] - South American market: Brazil's new crop was in good condition; exports were expected to increase, but it was subject to actual yield changes; Argentina's soybean exports and crushing increased [4] Domestic Market - Soybean meal: The domestic spot supply tightened; the oil mill operating rate increased but the overall quantity decreased; the inventory decreased; the market transaction increased; the demand was good; as of January 23, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1021 million tons, the operating rate was 57.83%, the soybean inventory was 6.5899 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from last week and an increase of 45.8% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, a decrease of 5.13% from last week and an increase of 104.55% year - on - year [7] - Rapeseed meal: The demand weakened; the oil mill operation basically stopped; the rapeseed supply was low; the granular rapeseed meal inventory was still high; as of January 23, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas was 60,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [7] Group 6: Logic Analysis - US soybean: High inventory pressure and high South American production, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand [8] - Brazil: Good weather, increased production forecast, and price pressure [8] - Argentina: Strong due to dry weather, but the driving effect may be limited [8] - Domestic market: Uncertainty in soybean supply, support in the spot market, limited upside space; in the long - term, the supply is loose and there is price pressure [8] - Rapeseed meal: High import price, expected pressure after increased supply, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen, but the South American weather may support the price [8] - Spread: The near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, and that of rapeseed meal was strong [8] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Limited upside space, suggest short - term observation and short - selling at high points [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [9] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazil showed different changes in different shipping months, with some decreases and some increases [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Last week, the decline in raw sugar led to a simultaneous decline in domestic sugar. With limited bullish factors, the probability of further price increases is relatively low. Current domestic sugar demand is average, and yesterday's spot price continued to decline, providing no positive support for the futures market [3]. - **Cotton**: Although domestic downstream yarn mills have poor profits, the overall inventory pressure is not significant, and there is no obvious negative feedback. Xinjiang yarn mills are operating at a high load, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Cotton prices are likely to rise under the expectation of tight supply and demand, but in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise, and focus on downstream import and new order trends [14]. - **Apple**: Recently, apple demand has slowed down and spot prices have weakened, but the futures market is relatively strong. The reduction of short positions in near - month contracts has driven the price up, and the long - position power in the main contract has increased. Future attention should be paid to whether the logic of shortage of delivery products will return to the market [20]. - **Red Dates**: The production of red dates in the 2025/2026 season has been determined, and the market focus is on the change in demand. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream buyers are mainly making rigid restocking. In the short - term, red date prices may remain volatile at a low level. In the long - term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new domestic season is loose, and prices will continue to be under pressure [25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Price and Spread**: On January 28, 2026, SR01 closed at 5308 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.23% and a weekly increase of 0.80%. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes. For example, SR01 - 05 was 128, down 3 from the previous day and up 21 for the week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and different sugar contracts also changed. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 on January 27 was - 26, up 7 from the previous day and down 66 for the week [9]. - **Import Price**: The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar changed. For example, the Brazilian import quota - in price was 4049 yuan/ton, up 8 from the previous day and down 35 for the week; the quota - out price was 5129 yuan/ton, up 11 from the previous day and down 46 for the week [12]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: On the reporting day, cotton 01 closed at 15365 yuan/ton, up 275 (1.82%); cotton 05 closed at 14940 yuan/ton, up 375 (2.57%); cotton 09 closed at 15010 yuan/ton, up 300 (2.04%) [15]. - **Spread**: The cotton basis was 1430, up 85; the spread between different cotton contracts and the spread between cotton and yarn also had corresponding changes [15]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Price**: On January 28, 2026, AP01 closed at 8302 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 1.39%. The spot prices of different grades of apples in different regions also showed different trends. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4 yuan/jin, with a daily increase of 0% and a weekly decrease of 2% [20]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spreads between different apple contracts (AP01 - 05, AP05 - 10, etc.) and the basis of the main contract also changed. For example, AP01 - 05 was - 1235, with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly increase of 0.65%; the main contract basis was - 106, with a daily increase of 4.95% and a weekly increase of 404.76% [20]. Red Dates - **Futures Spread**: The spreads between different red date contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) showed different trends in different time periods [26][28]. - **Price Trends**: The price trends of red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in main sales areas also showed certain changes over time [29].

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周二，郑糖主力合约偏弱调整，午后收于5168元/吨。广西南宁白 糖报价527 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean meal inventory is continuously being consumed but remains significantly higher than historical levels, and the soybean inventory also stays at a high level. Affected by the boost of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal prices are expected to run relatively strongly in the short - term. However, due to the upcoming harvest of new - season soybeans in Brazil, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and soybean meal prices are likely to weaken in the future [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are starting to stock up. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the purchase demand of deep - processing enterprises is increasing. Although the arrival volume is low due to snowfall, the purchase price of corn has been raised, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly. The inventory in the northern ports has slightly increased, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern ports is still being consumed. The price is relatively high, and feed enterprises are mainly fulfilling contracts. The current inventory is still lower than historical levels. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2,766 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton (- 0.11%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2,271 yuan/ton, a change of + 2 yuan/ton (+ 0.09%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 404, a change of + 3 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 304, a change of + 3 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 304, a change of - 7 from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 209, a change of - 2 from the previous day [1] - Market news: From January 26th, Brazilian export data showed that Brazil exported 1.522 million tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 95,000 tons, a 96% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 49,000 tons in the whole of January last year. The agricultural consulting firm AgRural reported that the soybean production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach 181 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 180.4 million tons. As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.324 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 900,000 - 1.55 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.345 million tons [2] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2,283 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.44%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 18 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 67, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 90, a change of + 18 from the previous day [4] - Market news: The consulting firm AgRural predicted that the total corn production in Brazil's 2025/26 season would be 136.6 million tons, 600,000 tons higher than the December forecast but still lower than the record - high production of 141.1 million tons in the 2024/25 season. As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.51 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1 - 1.7 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.486 million tons [4] Group 5: Figures - The report includes 44 figures related to the prices, production, consumption, inventory, and basis of soybean meal, corn, rapeseed meal, and corn starch, with data sourced from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7]

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 28, 2026 [1][2][4][6][8][10][13][17][19] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil may face resistance and fall due to concerns about limited inventory decline; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US threats to Canada and inventory status [1] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,258 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis of Y2605 was 412 yuan/ton, down 5.07%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,253 yuan/ton, up 1.46%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,238 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The basis of P2605 was 28 yuan/ton, down 46.43%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed oil was 10,306 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the futures price of OI605 was 9,326 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1] - **Inventory and Other Factors**: Palm oil inventory changes will be a focus at the end of the month; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US - Canada relations and inventory [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level shock, and domestic Zheng cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area adjustment expectations [2] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the futures price of cotton 2609 was 14,710 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, import volume increased by 49.5%, and other indicators showed different changes [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar maintains a low - level shock, and domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock with support from cost and market atmosphere [4] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of sugar 2605 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the futures price of sugar 2609 was 2,182 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of Nanning was 5,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, sales decreased by 37.18%, and other indicators changed accordingly [4] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The jujube spot market has weak transactions, and the futures is in a low - valuation range. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival transactions and inventory [6] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of jujube 2605 was 8,820 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [6] - **Market Situation**: The spot market has weak transactions, and some traders exchange price for volume, with some small factories shutting down [6] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is affected by pre - holiday demand, but high prices may suppress consumption, and inventory removal is slow [8] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of apple 2605 was 9,504 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [8] - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment is warming up, but the inventory removal of ordinary apples is slow due to high prices and competition from other fruits [8] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and pre - holiday inventory building, but is pressured by policy release and high - price transmission difficulties, maintaining a high - level shock [10] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of corn 2603 was 2,283 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures price of corn starch 2603 was 2,540 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [10] - **Market Situation**: Northeast corn price is stable and strong, North China has a small inventory - replenishing intention, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory in a rolling manner [10] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The hog market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with increasing supply pressure and limited fundamental benefits [13] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of hog 2605 was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of hog 2603 was 11,285 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [13] - **Market Situation**: Spot price is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and the base difference is strong, but the fundamental situation is not optimistic [13] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The meal market is expected to maintain a shock, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [17] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2605 was 2,766 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [17] - **Market Situation**: The domestic spot market is loose, the开机率 is high, and the inventory is still relatively high, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty [17] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The egg market is expected to maintain a range shock, with sufficient supply and attention to the digestion ability of high - price goods [19] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of egg 03 contract was 3,047 yuan/500KG, down 0.72%; the futures price of egg 04 contract was 3,322 yuan/500KG, down 1.25% [19] - **Market Situation**: Egg price increase boosts farmers' confidence, supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to the terminal digestion ability of high - price eggs [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to its lowest since 2014, the dollar index hit a four - year low, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased. Domestically, A - shares entered a phase of volume contraction and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remained positive. Industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 showed year - on - year growth, and the full - year profit in 2025 had its first increase in four years [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold prices hit new highs, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a 50 - year low [4]. - Copper: The decline in the US consumer confidence index led to a fall in copper prices. It was expected to maintain a high - level range - bound oscillation in the short term [5][6]. - Aluminum: The sharp decline in the US dollar index boosted aluminum prices, which were expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. - Alumina: The supply pressure decreased slightly, and alumina prices were expected to stabilize [8][9]. - Cast aluminum: The supply - demand stalemate continued, and cast aluminum prices were expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - Zinc: Supported by the weakening dollar and cost factors, zinc prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [11]. - Lead: Refinery production cuts provided some support, and lead prices were expected to remain weak with possible fluctuations around the integer level [12][13]. - Tin: Regulatory measures were offset by the sharp fall of the dollar, and tin prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, but there was a risk of correction [14]. - Steel products (Screw and coil): Before the Spring Festival, demand was limited, and steel prices were expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - Iron ore: Supply pressure persisted, and iron ore prices were expected to oscillate downward [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Spot trading was sluggish, and futures prices were expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: Attention should be paid to the progress in South American production areas, and soybean meal prices were expected to continue to oscillate [19][20]. - Palm oil: It was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to geopolitical factors, policy support, and supply - demand changes [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interest, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [22] 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on inventory, spot quotes, and spreads. Similar data are presented for nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [23][25][27][29]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 28 日星期周三 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1 月 27 日，地缘政治紧张，国际原油上涨预期加强，生柴概念再起，植物油板块延 续上涨。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8258 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.39%，日增仓 | | | | | 5418 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8172 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.42%，日增 | | | | | 仓 11101 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9238 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.61%，日增 | | | | | 仓 15902 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主 ...