| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月18日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王凌辉 | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | | | | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 旅鉄 | 旅跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8510 | -20 | -0.59% | | | 期分 | Y2605 | 8096 | 8172 | -76 | -0.93% | | | 墓差 | Y2605 | 364 | 338 | 26 | 7.69% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | 01+490 | 01+490 | 0 | ւ | | | 仓单 | | 25964 | 25964 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | | 现价 期价 | 广东24度 P2605 | 8380 8398 | 8430 8 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 | | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | | 短线整理 | | | ★ | | 应预计暂充足，现货价格表现抗跌。豆粕预计短线暂维持偏弱震荡行情。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月前 15 日出口数据环比下降，马政府对于 12 月马棕榈油累库预期的言 | | 棕榈油 | 短线整理 | 论叠加下半月东南亚降雨表现一般双重作用下，市场人气偏空。但由于东南亚逐步 | | ★ | | 进入减产季，棕榈油原空单可暂时持有，追空操作谨慎对待。关注调整后企稳反弹 | | | | 短多机会。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油 ...

美豆油 49.02 49.13 48.35 49.13 0.49% 北京时间12月18日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格有所反弹，今日开盘报49.11美分/磅，现报 49.22美分/磅，涨幅0.20%，盘中最高触及49.32美分/磅，最低下探49.07美分/磅。 更新时间： 豆油期货行情回顾： 12月17日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 【豆油市场消息速递】 巴西大豆行业协会（Abiove）公布的数据显示，2025年10月，巴西工厂加工大豆439万吨，豆油产量为 90万吨。工厂大豆期末库存为1126吨，豆油期末库存为49万吨。 12月17日，大商所豆油期货仓单25964手，环比上个交易日持平。 12月17日，全国一级豆油成交量9500吨，环比上个交易日减少53.20%。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-18 持续上涨驱动不足，板块延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约13925元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14978元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨，现货基差CF05+1053，较前一日变动+30；3128B棉全国均价15144元/吨， 较前一日变动+14元/吨，现货基差CF05+1219，较前一日变动+34。 近期市场资讯，16日2025/26年度印度棉花上市量折皮棉约4.2万吨，包含来自安得拉邦1.6万吨、马哈拉施特拉邦8670 吨及古吉拉特邦5950吨。据悉，16日CCI抛储约7.3万吨，前一日成交量为1972吨。具体来看，S-6竞拍底价稳定在 51500卢比/坎地，折约72.45美分/磅。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期ICE美棉仍将承压。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand pattern for soybean meal has not changed, with high oil refinery operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - For corn, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a tight supply. As prices reach a relatively high level and holidays approach, the grain sales progress is expected to accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2756 yuan/ton, a change of - 21 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2331 yuan/ton, a change of - 28 yuan/ton (- 1.19%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: As of December 12, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 94.1%, higher than 90.3% a week ago and the five - year average of 90.6%, but lower than 96.8% in the same period last year [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2206 yuan/ton, a change of - 14 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2512 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.40%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - Market news: As of December 11, the sowing of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season was completed. The rainfall in southern Brazil last week relieved the pressure on corn growth. The predicted total corn output in the 2025/26 season is 1.353 billion tons, lower than the record - high output of 1.411 billion tons in the 2024/25 season [3]

吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 豆粕：美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 豆一：抛储影响，偏弱震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2601 | 4090 -12 | （-0.29%） | （-0.95%） 4053 -39 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2756 | -7（-0.25%） | 2746 -20（-0.72%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1058.5 | -4.75（-0.45%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 301.8 | -4.5（-1.47%） | n a | | | | 较昨-10至持平； 3045～3120， | 豆粕 （43%） 现货基差M2605+370， | 较昨+10； 2026年1-3月 | | | （元/吨） 山东 | 持平； M260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may have a short - term rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Dalian palm oil futures may seek support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate in the 8200 - 8300 range [1]. - Soybean oil: With uncertain biodiesel policies in the US and upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest, CBOT soybean oil is under pressure. In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but with the approaching Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports in Q1, domestic factory soybean oil inventories may decrease, and basis quotes are expected to have limited fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the decline in US crude oil prices and subsequent events, the domestic vegetable oil market was first dragged down and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to whether the rapeseed oil 05 contract can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [1]. Pork - Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing demand for southern curing, the downside support is stronger. There is high uncertainty in the December - January market due to the possible impact of the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening pigs. The spot market has a sentiment of holding back sales, which supports the market. The futures market rose on the news of tariff increase on European pork imports but then fell as the actual tariff was lowered and the impact of imported pork on domestic supply is limited. The futures market will continue to adjust narrowly [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are in a bearish pattern due to the favorable export conditions in Brazil and the expected increase in sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand. In China, the sugar - pressing speed in the main producing areas has accelerated, and the futures market price is weakening due to increased supply. The market is expected to remain weak [7]. Meal - The US soybean market lacks trading highlights, and the South American new - crop soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, which suppresses the US soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. Although there is speculation about delayed soybean clearance and a sentiment of supporting prices, the upward space is limited, and there is a risk of decline [9]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grass - roots have a sentiment of supporting prices, and the prices in the producing areas are stable. In the north port, the supply has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. In North China, farmers sell when the price is high and hold back when the price is low. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and feed enterprises have a slightly lower willingness to pay for new orders. In the short term, the increase in corn supply will put pressure on the price, but the price decline is limited due to the grass - roots' price - supporting sentiment and the need for low - inventory enterprises to replenish stocks. The market will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Red Dates - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. The price in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market is firm, while that in the Guangdong Ruyifang market has slightly declined. The futures price is weak, the spot price is stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved transactions during the consumption peak, and the downward momentum is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the inventory level after the Spring Festival and the planting area and early - stage weather in 2026 [17]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. The US cotton export sales showed a decrease compared to the previous week and the four - week average. The US cotton market will remain volatile. In China, although the market expects a decline in the Xinjiang planting area next year, the downstream industry is weak, with increasing finished - product inventories and deteriorating spinning enterprise profits and cash flows. However, the rigid demand for cotton raw materials by spinning enterprises remains, so the downside space of cotton prices is limited, but there is pressure above. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100 [21]. Eggs - Egg prices are gradually rising from a low level, leading to a sentiment of holding back sales among farmers. The number of newly - laying hens is decreasing, but the overall inventory improvement is not obvious. With favorable storage conditions due to the recent cooling, egg supply remains sufficient. The market transaction is okay, with increased buying sentiment in low - price areas and high inventory pressure in high - price areas. All links are actively clearing inventory. The egg market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On December 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8460 yuan, down 0.59% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8096 yuan, down 0.93%; the basis of Y2605 was 364 yuan, up 7.69%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25964 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8380 yuan, down 0.59%; the futures price of P2605 was 8398 yuan, down 0.92%; the basis of P2605 was - 18 yuan, up 60.87%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port for May was 8848.4 yuan, down 0.77%, and the import profit was - 450 yuan, down 2.02%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 950 [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan, down 0.83%; the futures price of O1605 was 9157 yuan, down 1.59%; the basis of O1R05 was 413 yuan, up 19.71%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 3386 to 3336 [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread was 68 yuan, down 15%; the palm oil 05 - 09 spread was 102 yuan, down 15%; the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread was 13 yuan, down 68.29%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 80 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 520 yuan, up 3.35%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1110 yuan, down 2.63%; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1061 yuan, down 6.35% [1]. Pork - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 315, up 215% from the previous day. The price of live - hog 2605 was 11955 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the price of live - hog 2603 was 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 520, up 10.34%. The main - contract position was 167381, up 6.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 823 [3]. - **Spot**: In Henan, the price was 11750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 12410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Hebei, it was 11650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 231951, up 2.48%; the weekly strip price was 18 yuan, down 0.17%; the weekly piglet price was 16.5 yuan/kg, down 2.94%; the weekly sow price was 32.46 yuan, down 0.03%; the weekly slaughter weight was 129.63 kg, down 0.15%; the weekly cumulative breeding profit was - 163 yuan, up 2.59%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 241 yuan, up 7.21%; the monthly number of fertile sows was 39900000, down 1.12% [3]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5215 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5139 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.76 cents/lb, down 0.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was 76 yuan/ton, down 3.8%. The main - contract position was 487935, up 1.35%. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remained unchanged at 611 and 1490 respectively [7]. - **Spot**: In Nanning, the price was 5320 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; in Kunming, it was 5245 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The Nanning basis was 181 yuan, down 12.56%; the Kunming basis was 106 yuan, down 16.54%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4094 yuan/ton, down 0.8%; outside the quota was 5188 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1050000 tons, down 23.24%; the cumulative national sugar sales was 350000 tons, down 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 133900 tons, down 73.87%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi was 89400 tons, down 68.63%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate was 33.5%, down 24.75%; the cumulative sugar - sales rate in Guangxi was 66.77%, up 20.05%. The national industrial inventory was 700000 tons, down 7.4%; the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 44500 tons, down 80.43%; the industrial inventory in Yunnan was 12600 tons, up 110%. The sugar import volume was 750000 tons, up 38.89% [7]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 3100 yuan, down 0.32%; the futures price of M2605 was 2756 yuan, down 0.76%; the basis of M2605 was 344 yuan, up 3.3%. The spot basis quote was m2605 + 280. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in February was 38, up 140.7%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 23830 [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2410 yuan, up 0.42%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2331 yuan, down 1.19%; the basis of RM2605 was 79 yuan, up 92.68%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in January was 476, down 7.57%. The number of warehouse receipts was 0 [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4090 yuan, unchanged; the basis was - 150 yuan, unchanged. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3739 yuan, down 1.16%; the basis was 211 yuan, up 26.35%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17034 [9]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread was - 110 yuan, down 10%; the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan, down 25.45%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.73, down 0.27%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.84, up 0.12%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 690 yuan, down 2.82%; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 425 yuan, up 1.67% [9]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 was 2206 yuan, down 0.63%; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan, down 0.44%; the basis was 74 yuan, up 5.71%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 33 yuan, down 83.33%. The bulk grain price in Shekou was 2410 yuan, down 0.41%. The north - south trade profit was 30 yuan, unchanged. The CIF price was 2120 yuan, down 0.1%; the import profit was 290 yuan, down 2.65%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 421, down 59.48%. The number of warehouses decreased from 2146100 to 2098833, down 2.2%. The number of warehouse receipts was 54440, down 0.87% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2512 yuan, up 0.4%. The spot price in Changchun was 2590 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2800 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 78 yuan, down 11.36%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan, up 18.6%. The 01 - contract spread between starch and corn was 306 yuan, up 8.51%. The profit of Shandong starch enterprises was - 8 yuan, down 233.33%. The number of warehouses decreased from 287376 to 286198, down 0.41%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2500 [10]. Red Dates - **Futures**: The price of red dates 2601 was 8830 yuan, unchanged; the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8915 yuan, down 0.56%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9235 yuan, down 0.48%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan, up 37.04%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 320 yuan, down 1.59%. The position was 175737, up 1.68%. The number of warehouse receipts was 982, up 11.21%; the effective forecast was 1145, up 0.97%; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 2127, up 5.45% [14]. - **Spot**: The price of top - grade red dates in Cangzhou was 9650 yuan, down 0.21%; the price of first - grade red dates was 8600 yuan, unchanged; the price of second - grade red dates was 7200 yuan, unchanged. The basis of top - grade red dates to the main contract was 135 yuan, up 28.57%; the basis of first - grade red dates to the main contract was 885 yuan, up 5.99% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13925 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 63.46 cents/lb, up 0.52%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 200%. The main - contract position was 731267, up 2.48%. The number of warehouse receipts was 3482, up 8.85%; the effective forecast was 3898, down 3.08% [21]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 1

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场外盘承压、内盘震荡，核心矛盾在于全球供应宽松预期与国内成本支撑的博 弈。美豆期价在触及七周新低后小幅反弹，但整体情绪仍受制于供应压力。一方面，中国对美国大豆 的采购步伐不及市场预期；另一方面，南美新季大豆丰产前景明确，巴西即将开始收割，全球大豆供 应宽松格局未改，限制了美豆的反弹空间。国内市场则表现出"近强远弱"的分化特征。高企的库存 和疲软的需求压制了上行空间。短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 参考 ...

2025年12月18日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：抛储影响，偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251218 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：冬至需求高峰将至 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 2 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,342 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,398 | 涨跌幅 0.67% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

新华财经纽约12月16日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价16日全线下跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.37美元，比前一交易日 下跌3.25美分，跌幅为0.74%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.1美元，比前一交易日下跌11.25美 分，跌幅为2.16%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳10.63美元，比前一交易日下跌9美分，跌幅为 0.84%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 如果阿根廷和巴西南部1月份没有出现持续干旱和高温天气，农产品市场长期风险依然看跌。预计12月 剩余时间农产品市场交易将波动加剧。随着南美洲天气溢价释放和现货市场得到补充，3月份芝加哥期 货交易所（CBOT）大豆期价有望再次测试每盎司10.30美元至10.40美元，3月份玉米期价有望再次测试 每盎司4.25美元至4.30美元。目前推动市场持续复苏所需的动力仍然不足。 宏观经济疲软波及农产品市场；阿根廷降雨量预测摇摆不定，当日避险情绪主导各类市场。美国11月非 农录得6.4万人，失业率为四年来新高，令股市和能源市场承压，WTI原油现货价格午盘触及7个月新 低，报每桶55.45 ...