黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights three main directions: overseas expansion, AI new materials, and domestic demand in the real estate chain, characterized by "rationality and restraint" with short-term fluctuations rather than trend changes [12][13] - In the AI materials sector, domestic and international manufacturers are rapidly entering the market, leading to high-frequency positive and negative feedback. A "steady response" approach is recommended, with a focus on diversified product offerings [13] - The lithium battery sector is identified as a potential area for improvement, with notable advancements in the lithium copper foil business of Copper Crown Copper Foil and the lithium diaphragm business of China Materials Technology [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - The AI new materials sector is experiencing rational market behavior, with no significant upward adjustments in valuations or profit expectations for ongoing testing and development projects [12] - The report suggests that a "material supermarket" approach is safer than a "specialty store" model due to rapid changes in downstream industries [13] 2. Cyclical Linkage - Cement: The national average price is 355 RMB/t, down 70 RMB/t year-on-year, with a slight increase of 5 RMB/t month-on-month. The average shipment rate is 44.6% [15] - Glass: The average price of float glass is 1163.86 RMB/ton, up 16.02 RMB/ton, with a 1.40% increase. Inventory levels have increased slightly [15] - Concrete: The capacity utilization rate for concrete mixing stations is 8.15%, up 0.46 percentage points [15] 3. Market Performance (1201-1205) - The construction materials index increased by 2.61%, with notable performances in glass manufacturing (2.10%) and fiberglass (5.22%) [19] - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a mix of price increases and stability across various segments, with specific attention to the performance of leading companies in overseas markets [14][19] 4. Price Changes in Construction Materials - Cement prices have increased by 1.3% this week, particularly in East and Southwest regions, driven by rising production costs and limited time for price adjustments [29] - The float glass market is experiencing mixed price movements, with regional variations and a focus on inventory management as year-end approaches [43][44] 5. Important Developments - Recent announcements include a capital increase plan by Zhongda An and a contract signed by China Materials International for a mining project worth 2.7 billion RMB [5]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering steel products, iron ore, glass, and soda ash, with data from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the medium to long - term, the steel industry's prosperity is declining, with weakening demand for rebar and downward pressure on iron ore futures prices. Glass and soda ash also face challenges, with limited upward momentum for glass and weak demand for soda ash [67][71] - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore are expected to trade in a range, while glass and soda ash are likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [68][72] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodities Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price rose from 3117 to 3157 (up 1%), with a spot price of 3290 and a basis of 133 [2] - **Hot - rolled coil (HC2605)**: Futures price increased from 3288 to 3320 (up 1%), spot price 3300, basis - 20 [2] - **Iron ore (I2601)**: Futures price dropped from 794 to 786 (down 1%), spot price 810, basis 25 [2] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price rose from 1575 to 1585 (up 1%), spot price 1720, basis 135 [2] - **Coking coal (JM2605)**: Futures price decreased from 1152 to 1140 (down 1%), spot price 1510, basis 370 [2] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price fell from 1053 to 994 (down 6%), spot price 1130, basis 136 [2] - **Soda ash (SA601)**: Futures price declined from 1177 to 1137 (down 3%), spot price 1258, basis 121 [2] 3.2 Rebar Analysis - **Profit**: On December 4, the blast - furnace profit for rebar was 31 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: As of December 5, the blast - furnace operating rate was 80.16% (down 0.93 percentage points), daily hot - metal output was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons), and weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons (down 16.77 tons) [12] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 10.96 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume of construction steel by major traders was 93,867 tons [18] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, social rebar inventory was 361.13 tons (down 23.62 tons), and in - plant inventory was 142.68 tons (down 4.05 tons) [23] 3.3 Iron Ore Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, global iron - ore shipments were 3323.2 tons (up 44.8 tons), and arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2784 tons (down 155.5 tons) [28] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15991.11 tons (up 89.89 tons), and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 42.25 tons) [33] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 334.23 tons (down 9.83 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 126.6 tons [38] 3.4 Float Glass Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 218 (down 2), weekly output was 1085095 tons (down 18800 tons). As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate was 77.25%, and the operating rate was 73.4% [43] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, in - plant float - glass inventory was 59.442 million weight - boxes (down 2.92 million tons), and the available inventory days were 26.8 days (down 0.7 days) [48] - **Demand**: In the week of December 1, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 10.1 days [52] 3.5 Soda Ash Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.74% (down 0.66 percentage points), and production was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons) [55] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, in - plant soda - ash inventory was 153.86 tons (down 4.88 tons) [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of December 5, the soda - ash sales ratio was 106.93% (down 1.23 percentage points) [64] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: Medium - to long - term outlook is bearish due to weakening demand and low winter - storage willingness. Short - term trading should be based on a range - bound strategy [67][68] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Medium - to long - term, glass has limited upward momentum, and soda - ash demand is weak. Short - term, they are expected to trade weakly and oscillate [71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs, with gradually improving profits. The market may pre - trade market expectations, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate moderately. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and steel mills have actively carried out maintenance and production cuts. After the reduction in steel production, steel inventory has been destocked, and the contradictions in the industrial chain have been alleviated. The price of coking coal has generally declined, benefiting steel mills, and the profits of steel mills have recently increased. Steel mills now have the space and motivation for new production increases. Steel currently has low raw material inventory and has the demand for winter storage replenishment. With the approaching of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, macro - expectations provide support, and the short - term price decline space is limited [21]. - For coking coal, the marginal change in supply is limited, but the profits of terminal steel mills are under pressure, and the production of hot metal has been continuously reduced. The supply and demand of coking coal have turned into a slight surplus. Coking enterprises are actively controlling the raw material procurement rhythm due to the expected price cuts, and the inventory pressure on upstream mines is becoming apparent. Short - term coal prices will still be under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal has decreased, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase. As the coking enterprises' production gradually resumes, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills. Considering that the futures market has already priced in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts in advance, the spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price - cut pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may decline due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the supply side maintains the trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Recently, the price of finished steel has been relatively strong, and the market may pre - hype market expectations, driving the rebound of ferroalloys. However, due to the weak fundamentals of ferroalloys themselves, they may return to their own fundamentals after the rebound [47]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is firm, the valuation has no upward elasticity without a trend - based production cut. The cold repair of glass has accelerated, and the expected rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The expectation of maintaining a high - level supply of soda ash in the medium and long term remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started inventory accumulation at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, and the balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In October, the export of soda ash exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - In December, the expectation of cold repair of glass production lines has resurfaced, and the implementation situation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key lies in the spot price in Hubei and the expectation of warehouse receipts. In reality, with the recent acceleration of cold repair and the expected further decline in daily melting volume, but the terminal has entered the off - season, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains at a high level, so there is still pressure on the spot price. The degree of inventory destocking in the mid - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3137, 3157, and 3192 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3320, and 3329 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed slight changes on December 5, 2025. For example, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3326 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [9][11]. - The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed compared with the previous day [4]. - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke remained unchanged at 4 and 2 respectively on December 5, 2025 [18]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil's futures prices, month - spreads, and basis were provided [5][6][7]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 785.5, 769, and 744 respectively, with daily changes of - 9, - 8, and - 9 respectively [22]. - The basis of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed certain changes [22]. - **Fundamentals** - On December 5, 2025, the daily average hot - metal production was 232.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.38 tons and a monthly decrease of 1.92 tons. The 45 - port desulfurization volume was 318.45 tons, a weekly decrease of 12.13 tons and a monthly decrease of 2.48 tons. Other indicators such as global shipping volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel - mill inventory also changed [25]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of iron ore's futures month - spreads and basis were provided [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - The month - spreads of coking coal and coke, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05, showed different degrees of changes on December 5, 2025. The immediate coking profit, main mine - coke ratio, main rebar - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio also changed [35]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and different types showed certain fluctuations on December 5, 2025 [38]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of coking coal and coke's futures month - spreads, basis, and coking profit were provided [40][41][42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 24, with a daily increase of 72. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions remained relatively stable, and indicators such as the price of semi - coke small materials and the price of thermal coal also showed certain changes [48]. - **Silicon Manganese** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 122, with a daily increase of 38. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions increased slightly, and the prices of different ores and the inventory of silicon manganese also changed [49][50]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese's production costs, profits, month - spreads, and basis were provided [51][52][53]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1213, 1275, and 1137 respectively, with daily changes of - 19, - 19, and - 25 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash also remained unchanged in most regions [62]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of soda ash's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, production capacity utilization, and production were provided [63][64][65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1115, 1176, and 994 respectively, with daily changes of - 16, - 12, and - 16 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also changed [85]. - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different degrees of fluctuations from November 28 to December 4, 2025 [86]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of glass's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, daily melting volume, and sales - to - production ratio were provided [87][88][89].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：供需格局未改，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行，盘面成交活跃，持仓量下降。现货方面，区域有所分化，整体维持弱稳。 据隆众数据显示，本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5944.2万重箱，环比减少4.68%。供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加， 带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍显不足，供需矛盾依旧较大。库存有所去化，但仍处高位。后续 玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。现货方面，整体价格持稳，以刚需采购为主。供需与逻辑：纯碱产销存 数据均有所回落，供需矛盾得到小幅缓解，但库存仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预期，重碱 需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：建材消费数据尚可，合金期货有所反弹 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日钢联公布了本周钢材消费情况，整体看建材消费强劲，去 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-05 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3175 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 6 元/吨（0.189%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 141.1905 万手，环比增加 114799 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3332 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 13 元/吨（0.391%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations. Steel products are in the off - season but continue to reduce inventory, with a firm performance on the futures market. Iron ore is under pressure due to the expected seasonal decline in hot metal. Coal and coke have rebounded from low levels on the futures market, while glass and soda ash are suppressed by oversupply [1][2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals have limited highlights. There is a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability rate of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The current arrival volume has decreased month - on - month, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the release of restocking demand is slow. With macro expectations ahead of important meetings, short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Coke supply continues to increase, while steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. With the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts expected, but due to the subsequent winter restocking expectations for raw materials, the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The current valuation level of coking coal on the futures market is still low. The low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the subsequent winter restocking expectations of the middle and lower reaches are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in manganese silicon costs supports the price, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose. Further upward movement of the futures price will face spot warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The strong cost trend supports the bottom of the silicon iron price, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Further upward movement of the futures price may face warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Currently, supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices may rise [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash industry price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has increased further, but the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][18]. 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel Products**: The demand has declined month - on - month. The overall spot market transactions are average. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Steel production has decreased from a high level, especially the production of rebar. The funds available for domestic construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. Steel inventories continue to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. With the weakening demand, the speed of inventory reduction is difficult to accelerate. The third - round and fifth - batch central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams have reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei, but the impact on the production of northern steel mills is limited. The profitability rate of steel mills has improved this week, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the future. With the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited due to poor fundamentals [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume and daily consumption of scrap steel have decreased, and steel mill restocking has slowed down. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price of the main contract has oscillated strongly due to the warm trend of the black sector and the significant increase in manganese ore port quotations, which has strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The cost of manganese silicon has gradually increased, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of the main contract has risen due to the strong trend of black chain varieties and the increase in settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai, which has strengthened the cost support and production - reduction expectations for silicon iron. The cost trend is strong, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [21].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China indicates a significant supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but relatively weak domestic demand. Policy adjustments will focus on increasing quality consumption supply, reducing inefficient investments, promoting consumer welfare, and addressing debt issues, which will impact various industries differently [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Projections**: China's economy is expected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, with inflation anticipated to be higher than in 2025. This suggests that nominal growth will outperform this year, positively influencing secondary market investments. Structural opportunities will primarily be found in technology and consumption sectors, driven by both economic and cultural factors [3]. - **Export Performance**: Exports in 2025 exceeded expectations, and growth in 2026 is projected to be at least as high as this year, potentially exceeding 6%. The share of exports to emerging markets is increasing, while direct exports to the U.S. are declining, although overall dependency is rising. Despite falling export prices, corporate profit margins are stabilizing due to technological advancements and cost reductions [5][13]. - **Weak Domestic Demand**: The primary reasons for weak domestic demand are the transformation of the real estate sector and heavy debt burdens, which have adversely affected the income of businesses, governments, and households. This situation is reflected in accounts receivable and payable metrics, indicating potential risks [6]. - **"Anti-Involution" Policy**: This systemic initiative differs from historical capacity reduction measures and will intensify in certain sectors such as glass, chemicals, photovoltaics, non-ferrous metals, and coal in 2026. This indicates that structural opportunities will increasingly manifest in specific industries [7]. - **Economic Policy Trends**: The economic policy for 2026 will continue a trend of moderate acceleration, focusing on increasing quality consumption supply and reducing inefficient supply. This approach has been emphasized since the 2022 strategic planning outline and the 2025 "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sectors to Watch**: Key areas for increasing quality consumption supply include yachts, private jets, automobiles, and services in sports and high-end healthcare. Inbound consumption is also significant. Collectively, these sectors represent about 3% of 2024's GDP, with a potential growth of 10%, translating to a 0.3 percentage point increase in GDP [10]. - **Fiscal Policy Measures**: The overall fiscal deficit rate is expected to rise, including a narrow deficit rate of 3%-4% and a broader fiscal support rate. Adjustments in the use of special bonds aim to enhance efficiency, with the 2025 special bond scale at 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in usage compared to previous years [11]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in 2026, with interest rate cuts likely and sufficient room for reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2025 [12]. - **Investment and Consumption Outlook**: Investment is anticipated to improve slightly next year due to moderate increases and structural adjustments. Consumption levels are expected to remain stable, supported by policies like trade-in programs and increased social welfare spending, alongside enhanced quality consumption supply. Export expectations are optimistic, with a projected growth of 6% or higher, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and advancements in Chinese technology [2][13]. - **Potential Growth Space**: China's potential growth rate exceeds 5%, indicating substantial growth opportunities. With sufficient policy support, higher growth can be achieved. Overall, a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures will allow the economy to reveal more positive aspects, with significant development opportunities across various sectors [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move within a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the overall commodity environment on prices. Although the overall inventory of iron ore is still high, there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make a rebound rather than continue to short. The positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth looking forward to [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short term, with a weak supply - demand pattern and limited marginal changes in the real - world situation. The price of polysilicon is affected by factors such as production reduction, inventory, and delivery games, and the instability risk of the near - month contract is relatively high [13][15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand side shows obvious improvement [18][20]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.149%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3319 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) [1]. - **Strategy Views** - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.59% [4]. - **Strategy Views** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased significantly, and the profitability of steel mills was at a low level in the same period of the past three years [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On December 3, the main contract of manganese silicon closed up 0.31% at 5746 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.04% at 5446 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak. Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys also showed a weak trend. There is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.61% (- 55). The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57430 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.98% (+ 1115) [12][14]. - **Strategy Views** - Industrial silicon production is decreasing, and demand is weak. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the near - month contract is unstable [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1020 yuan/ton, down 1.35% (- 14). The soda ash main contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, down 1.52% (- 18) [17][19]. - **Strategy Views** - The glass industry has reduced supply, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light. The soda ash market has a stable price supported by cost and pending orders, but the demand is still weak [18][20].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm as the December Central Economic Work Conference is approaching and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. However, the current steel inventory level is still higher year - on - year, demand is under pressure to weaken, and the steel futures market lacks upward momentum. There is still an expectation of seasonal weakening of hot metal, the driving force for further upward movement of iron ore is insufficient, the spot prices of coking coal and coke remain weak, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1][2]. - Overall, there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals during the off - season. There is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to the boost of macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Sinter ore inventory decreased slightly despite the increase in the sinter ore output and its proportion in the furnace, but sinter powder inventory increased. With the continuous compression of profit margins, hot metal is expected to continue to weaken, and the support from rigid demand is gradually weakening. Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The arrivals in this period decreased month - on - month, port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory of imported ore in national steel mills declined, with the replenishment demand not yet significantly released. After the previous price recovery, there is insufficient support for further upward movement, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - The arrival of scrap steel is low. After the price decline, its cost - performance has recovered, and the demand for scrap steel from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported. The downside space is limited, and the scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - Coke supply has increased slightly, and steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. Coupled with the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts. However, there are still expectations of winter storage and replenishment for raw materials in the future, and the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated marginally, the current valuation level of the futures market is still low. The low - output state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the expectations of winter storage and replenishment by the mid - and downstream are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to the impact of delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected, and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3][11]. Alloys - The price center of ore has risen, and the cost of ferromanganese silicon remains relatively high. However, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the price is under great upward pressure. It is difficult to transfer the cost downstream. It is expected that the futures price will mainly operate at a low level [3]. - The strong cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price. However, the market supply - demand is in a weak state, and the price increase is still weak. The cost transfer downstream is not smooth, and the futures price of the main contract is expected to mainly operate at a low level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in a surplus state. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][12]. - The price of the soda ash industry is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased, and the overall supply - demand is still in a surplus state. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the surplus pattern of supply will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][15]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the futures market lacks upward momentum. The spot market trading is generally average. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, but the willingness to reduce production is limited. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and the demand is facing the pressure to weaken. The third - round and fifth - batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team has reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Although it has limited impact on the production of northern steel mills, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market still has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upside space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to oscillate. The overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, the arrivals decreased month - on - month. The rigid demand for hot metal is gradually weakening, the port inventory continues to accumulate, the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has declined, and the replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price recovery, there is insufficient support for further upward movement [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the price is expected to oscillate. The arrival volume this week decreased slightly compared with last week and was lower than the level of the same period last year. The demand from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported, and the downside space is limited [9]. - **Coke**: The supply and demand are slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has declined slightly, the inventory has slightly accumulated, but the overall contradiction is not significant. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts, but the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of price cuts is low, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The domestic coal mine production continues at a low level, the imports from Mongolia remain high, the demand from the mid - and downstream has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The futures market is expected to oscillate, with the near - month contracts remaining stable and the far - month contracts expected to oscillate with an upward trend [10][11]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply reduction is still needed. The supply is expected to decline in December. The demand is weak compared with the same period last year, and the large inventory of the mid - stream always suppresses the futures valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and the supply - demand is still in a surplus state. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the price center will decline [15]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost transfer downstream is not smooth, and the inventory accumulation puts pressure on the price. The supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction is limited, and it is difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will mainly operate at a low level [16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is in a weak state, and the price increase is weak. The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is still weak, and it is difficult to transfer the cost downstream. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly operate at a low level [18]. Index Information - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on December 3, 2025, was 1990.66, with a daily decline of 0.30%, a 5 - day increase of 0.53%, a monthly decline of 0.39%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.58% [103].