Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The improvement of fundamentals and policy expectations help the sector stabilize periodically. The rapid recovery of hot metal output after the parade boosts the demand for furnace materials, supporting steel prices. Steel enterprises' rapid resumption of production and frequent policy expectations on the supply - side jointly lead to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2]. - The short - term prices of most varieties in the black building materials sector are expected to oscillate. Although there are some supporting factors, there are also limitations and uncertainties in demand and supply [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The main futures prices of the sector oscillated strongly yesterday, and the night - session prices oscillated. The statements in the NDRC report triggered small fluctuations in the market. The resumption of production by steel enterprises and policy expectations on the supply - side led to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2] 2. Raw Material Analysis Iron Element - In terms of iron ore, port maintenance led to a significant decline in Brazilian shipments, but the impact on annual shipments is expected to be small. The current demand has returned to the level before the parade restrictions, supporting iron ore demand. However, the peak - season demand for finished products needs to be continuously verified, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices leads to low electric - furnace profits, but resources are still tight, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - The recovery of steel mills' imported ore consumption to the pre - parade level indicates the recovery of hot metal production. Steel mills still have restocking demand before the National Day, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating. The recovery of coal mines is slower than that of downstream hot metal, and safety accidents continue to disrupt the coal - mine production increase rhythm. Under this supply - demand pattern, coal - mine inventories are being depleted at a low level, and there is still restocking expectation downstream before the National Day, so the coking coal price is expected to be supported [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, a new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [4] 3. Individual Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is average, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are weak, especially for building materials. Although the cost side has support and there is restocking demand during the peak season, it is expected that the performance of rebar will be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils [8] Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports decreased month - on - month, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil. The demand has support in the short term as the small - sample hot metal output has recovered. The overall inventory level is moderate. The demand is expected to recover, and steel enterprises' inventories are at a low level, but the peak - season demand for finished products has not been verified, so the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8][9] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased this week. The pressure on finished product prices led to low electric - furnace profits, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - flow processes decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - The first - round price cut has been implemented, but the coking profit is still considerable, and the supply has basically returned to normal. After the parade, steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, and they maintain on - demand procurement. The coke supply will gradually become loose. With the support of high hot - metal production, steel mills still have restocking demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Coal mines have basically resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. The downstream steel and coking enterprises' procurement is cautious, and the upstream inventory is accumulating, but the overall inventory pressure is not prominent. After the parade, the production of coking coal and coke will gradually recover, and the downstream restocking on - demand will support the coking coal price [11] Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another wave of oscillations. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12] Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] Manganese Silicon - A new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure [16] Ferrosilicon - The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [17] 4. Index Information - On September 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2222.49, down 0.11%; the commodity 20 index was 2487.89, down 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2232.18, up 0.10%. The steel industry chain index was 1999.51, with a daily decline of 0.18%, a 5 - day increase of 1.04%, a 1 - month decline of 4.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.16% [100][102]

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

1. Natural Rubber Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. There is still support from the upstream cost side, while downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak season of the main producing areas and whether the La Niña phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high prices; if the supply is poor, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the price of Yunnan Guofu mobile phone glue (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropped to 15,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. The new spread decreased by 34.78%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased slightly, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.49% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.3%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires decreased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of Thai dry glue increased, and the production profit margin of STR20 decreased significantly [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao showed different changes [1]. 2. Polysilicon Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In September, although there is a reduction in supply on the supply side, factory resumptions offset it, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation in September may show a slight de - stocking pattern. The price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by downstream enterprises, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. However, the futures market mainly trades policy expectations, and short - term price fluctuations should be vigilant [2]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.10%, the N - type granular silicon price remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis increased by 30.47%. The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, while some showed small changes [2]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 104.65%, and the spreads between other contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production increased by 3.53%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 2.58%. Monthly, the polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The silicon wafer production increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.94%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 6.65%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 7.28% [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will increase during the dry season, raising the cost of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In the short - term, the supply - demand is in a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the prices of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different types of industrial silicon decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 206.25%, the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 66.67%, the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 200.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the regenerative aluminum alloy production decreased by 1.60%, and the industrial silicon export volume increased by 8.32% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang increased slightly, the factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased, the social inventory decreased by 0.74%, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.53% [3]. 4. Log Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The log market is in a volatile pattern. The spot market is weakening, and the enthusiasm of traders for imports is decreasing. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply in September is expected to continue at a low level. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. The futures valuation is relatively low, and it is in the stage of bottom - seeking. It is recommended to go long at low prices [4]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Futures and Spot Price**: On September 10, the 2509 contract of logs increased by 0.12%, the 2511 contract increased by 0.06%, and the 2601 contract decreased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of different contracts showed small changes. The spot prices of various types of logs in ports remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: Monthly, the port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32%. The arrival volume of 12 ports in China last week was about 170,000 cubic meters, a new low this year, and the expected arrival volume this week is about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [4]. - **Inventory**: Weekly, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country decreased to 2.94 million cubic meters as of September 5 [4]. - **Demand**: Weekly, the average daily outbound volume of logs decreased slightly but remained above 60,000 cubic meters as of September 5 [4]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: - **Soda Ash**: The futures market continues to be weak and volatile. The fundamental logic of oversupply persists. Although the inventory has not increased significantly this week, it has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has increased significantly. The weekly production has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, the downstream demand for soda ash will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, the supply is high. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices on rebounds [5]. - **Glass**: The news of the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area at the beginning of the week triggered a rise in the futures market, but the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. The factory inventory in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the middle - stream inventory has not been significantly reduced. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear capacity to solve the over - supply problem. Short - term observation is recommended, and the actual demand in the peak season should be focused on in the medium - term [5]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions showed small changes. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the spread between 05 contracts increased [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 decreased slightly, the price of 2509 increased slightly, and the basis of 05 contracts increased [5]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of soda ash increased by 4.55%, and the weekly production increased by 4.55%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 0.77%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.43%, the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 8.03%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days decreased by 12.54% [5]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different degrees of decline [5].

昨日有消息称几内亚政府可能要求矿业公司建设本土冶炼厂，此举或影响西芒杜铁矿的发运预期，推动铁矿盘面大幅上涨，但目前事件仍存在较大不确定性。从交 易逻辑看，市场更倾向于解读为阅兵结束后钢厂复产补库，叠加本期巴西矿发运量下降，情绪面助推价格上行，当前铁水产量预计仍将快速回升至高位，而成材端 仍处于超季节性去库阶段，这种状态下应该收缩利润压供给，但旺季需求尚未被证伪，成材价格继续向下有阻碍，在这个维度下原料借机向上挤压利润。目前成材 仍受超季节性累库压制，盘面上行乏力。打破僵局需等待两类信号，一是旺季需求实质性改善，能够承接高供给并带动去库；二是供给端出现实际收缩，形成成本 强支撑。目前两者均未明朗，反内卷情绪也有所降温，预计近期盘面或仍呈现震荡偏弱，等待旺季需求验证。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3109 | 3123 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -47 ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，9月4日-9月5日，冀中新材料、威玻新材料、山东玻纤和三 磊玻纤陆续发布复价函，上调直接纱、板材纱、短切毡专用纱等产品5%-10%价格，原因系中美关税等 因素，企业出现持续性亏损。此次调价标志着玻纤行业自律初见成效，内卷情况有所减缓，未来玻纤行 业盈利中枢有望持续提高。玻纤/碳基复材方面，据卓创资讯，截至2025年9月4日，电子纱G75主流报价 8300-9200元/吨，较上一周均价环比持平，高端产品E、D系列及低介电产品市场成交价格高位维持。 广发证券主要观点如下： 据卓创资讯，截至9月4日，国内浮法玻璃均价1190元/吨，环比-0.1%，同比去年-10.6%，库存天数约 27.64天，较上周四增加0.09天。2.0mm镀膜面板主流订单价格13元/平方米左右，环比+18.18%，样本库 存天数约18.35天，环比下降6.80%。当前玻璃龙头估值偏低，看好旗滨集团(601636.SH)、山东药玻 (600529.SH)、福莱特(601865.SH)、福莱特玻璃(06865)、信义玻璃(00868)、信义光能(00968)，关注金晶 科技(600586.SH)、力诺特玻( ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

黑色建材日报 2025-09-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3143 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 26 元/吨（0.834%）。当日注册仓单 230131 吨, 环比增加 7582 吨。主力合约持仓量为 173.7894 万手，环比增加 1462 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3340 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 27 元/吨（0.814%）。 当日注册仓单 24459 吨, 环比减 少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 130.0035 万手，环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector has experienced a decline of 2.79% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which fell by 0.81% and 1.37% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.98% and -1.41% [2][3] Group 1: Cement Market - The national high-standard cement market price is 342.7 CNY/ton, down by 1.7 CNY/ton from last week and down by 40.0 CNY/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [3][9] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 64.1%, up by 0.4 percentage points from last week but down by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][9] - The average daily cement shipment rate is 45.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points from last week but down by 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][9] Group 2: Glass Market - The average price of float glass is 1193.0 CNY/ton, up by 3.3 CNY/ton from last week but down by 147.2 CNY/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [3][10] - The inventory of float glass among sample enterprises is 56.04 million heavy boxes, up by 0.5 million heavy boxes from last week but down by 6.92 million heavy boxes year-on-year [3][10] Group 3: Fiberglass Market - The domestic non-alkali roving market price remains stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 2400tex non-alkali winding direct yarn ranging from 3100 to 3700 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to previous periods [4][7] - The market for electronic yarn G75 is stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 8300 to 9200 CNY/ton, also remaining flat compared to the previous week [4][7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tianshan Cement, among others [5][9] - In the consumer building materials sector, companies such as Arrow Bathroom, Dongpeng Holdings, and Oppein Home are recommended due to expected growth in the second half of the year [5][11] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued Hong Kong-listed construction central enterprises [5]