证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0707-0711） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年7月12日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年7月11日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 15.94 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-0 ...

文 | 王璨 当白酒的年轻化目标逐渐抬头，品牌的潮流化姿态也由国内逐步迈向海外。凭借创意特调鸡尾酒与汇聚 人气的时尚基地，五粮液（000858）巧妙融合传统白酒与国际现代潮流元素，让"五谷罗尼"在当地酒吧 声名鹊起。这一现象，正是五粮液创新出海战略、重构品牌国际叙事的一个生动缩影。 由味蕾的极致体验触发浅层感官的愉悦惊喜，进而潜移默化地引领文化认知、促进文明互鉴，五粮液由 浅入深的战略布局，亦在"和美全球行"的征程中，通过更加深入、多元的路径，持续打破年龄纵向界限 与圈层横向壁垒，实现消费群体的纵向渗透与横向拓展。市场营销范式的重新定义、海外战略的全面升 级，五粮液书写的白酒出海故事，正焕发新的生机与无限可能。 创意特调燃动法兰克福酒吧， "量体裁衣"打入国际年轻群体市场 为时尚举杯，不仅是品牌面向部分消费者的特例，更是白酒企业整体趋向潮流、链接全球年轻消费群体 的符号。 在国内打开年轻群体增量空间的五粮液，也将该战略思维引入了国外。 价值的传递向来讲求场景的开发与深入渗透，品牌"年轻化"目标，亦需要借助与年轻群体近距离沟通、 互动来推动。本次五粮液"和美全球行"德国站期间，五粮液·紫气东来与"五谷罗尼""年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the liquor sector, particularly the white wine segment, is misleading, with a superficial appearance of recovery masking underlying weaknesses and risks [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The white wine sector experienced a "four consecutive days of gains" with a total increase of only 4.2%, significantly lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's over 18% rebound [2]. - Over the past ten days, the sector has seen a net outflow of over 9 billion yuan from major funds, indicating a large-scale exit by institutional investors [3]. - The public fund's holding ratio in white wine has dropped from 8.5% in 2023 to 6.2% currently, reflecting a significant reduction in institutional interest [3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Major stocks like Moutai and Wuliangye have faced substantial sell-offs, with Moutai being reduced by 5.84 million shares and Wuliangye by 34.88 million shares in the second quarter [3]. - The current high price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 is seen as inflated compared to the 12.8 ratio at the end of 2018, suggesting a potential overvaluation in the market [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The white wine industry is grappling with severe inventory issues, with distributors holding stock levels of 6-8 months, far exceeding the normal 3-4 months [3]. - Cash flow issues are prevalent, with over 30% of companies experiencing tight liquidity [3]. - Production of white wine has plummeted by 7.8% year-on-year from January to April, indicating a lack of demand despite stable high-end prices [3]. Group 4: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors are influenced by cognitive biases such as the "anchoring effect" and "herding effect," leading them to overlook current valuations and fundamentals [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a high probability of a downturn, with over 70% likelihood of a price drop [5]. - The market is characterized by a predominance of small transactions, with institutional large trades disappearing, leaving retail investors vulnerable to losses [5].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye Group has significantly increased its shareholding in Wuliangye Co., completing 122.8% of its minimum buyback plan within just over 90 days, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future growth and long-term value [1][5]. Group 1: Shareholding and Buyback Plans - Wuliangye Group has acquired 4.76 million shares at a cost of 614 million yuan, surpassing the lower limit of its buyback plan of 500 million yuan [1]. - The buyback plan, initially announced on April 9, allows for an investment of between 500 million and 1 billion yuan over a six-month period starting from April 9, 2023 [1]. - As of April 8, 2023, Wuliangye Group held 795 million shares, representing 20.49% of the total share capital, with a combined holding of 54.92% when including its action partner [7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with a 0.75% increase in the sector as of July 11, and Wuliangye's stock price rose by 1.4% to 124.30 yuan per share [5]. - Research reports indicate that media corrections on strict policy implementations may lead to a gradual recovery in consumer demand for gatherings and banquets [5]. Group 3: Value Management Initiatives - Wuliangye has institutionalized its market value management by releasing a new system that monitors key indicators such as market value, price-to-earnings ratio, and price-to-book ratio [7][9]. - The company emphasizes focusing on core operations to enhance efficiency and profitability, while also considering mergers, share buybacks, investor relations management, and equity incentives to boost investment value [9]. - This is the first time Wuliangye has disclosed its value management system, indicating an increasing focus on managing market perception and investment value [9]. Group 4: Broader Industry Context - Other liquor companies, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe, are also engaging in share buybacks and have released their own value management systems following regulatory guidance aimed at enhancing investor returns [10]. - Major liquor companies are actively implementing shareholder return plans, with Wuliangye planning to distribute 10 shares for a cash dividend of 25.76 yuan, totaling 10 billion yuan [12].

Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends in Baijiu Sector - Foreign investment in the baijiu sector has been decreasing, with Kweichow Moutai's foreign ownership dropping from 26% to nearly 13% over the past five years, representing a reduction of about 50% [1] - Other major baijiu companies have also seen significant reductions in foreign holdings, with Luzhou Laojiao decreasing from 8.1% to 4.5% (44% reduction), Yanghe from 27.4% to 3.5% (87% reduction), and Gujing Gong from 10.3% to 3.8% (63% reduction) [2] - Wuliangye has experienced a similar trend, with foreign ownership decreasing from 26% to approximately 7%, equating to a 73% reduction over the last five years [3] Group 2: Recent Performance and Forecasts - Recent quarterly data indicates that Kweichow Moutai had two quarters of net buying and two quarters of net selling, with total shares held decreasing from 87 million to 73 million, a 16% reduction over the past year [1] - Forecasts for the first half of 2025 suggest Kweichow Moutai will see a revenue growth of 9%, while Wuliangye is expected to grow by 1-2%, and Luzhou Laojiao is projected to decline by 6-10% [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu is an exception, with foreign holdings increasing from 36 million to 49 million shares over the past year, indicating a 36% increase in foreign investment [12] Group 3: Overall Industry Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the baijiu industry appears cautious, with many companies experiencing declines in foreign investment, suggesting that the industry's fundamentals may not have fully bottomed out [9] - The baijiu index has been one of the worst-performing indices this year, raising concerns about whether the actual earnings will meet broker expectations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with major brands like Moutai experiencing substantial price fluctuations due to long-standing industry issues and changing consumer attitudes towards premium pricing [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The price of Moutai has dropped from 2800 to around 1800 in just over six months, indicating a continuing downward trend [1]. - The traditional distribution model leads to inflated prices, with a factory price of 100 yuan for liquor potentially rising to 500-900 yuan at retail due to multiple layers of distributors [3]. - Companies face challenges in sourcing quality products at reasonable prices, with high costs and poor service complicating the procurement process [3]. Group 2: Solutions and Innovations - The introduction of a direct supply model by Jijiujian aims to cut out the markup chain, allowing prices to reflect true value and reducing procurement costs by 30%-50% compared to market rates [5]. - Digital quality control measures are being implemented, including strict sourcing from designated grain bases and comprehensive testing of each batch of liquor [6]. - Flexible customization options are available for enterprises, allowing them to choose liquor types and packaging designs, thus enabling small batch orders without high minimums [6]. Group 3: Market Reception and Future Outlook - Jijiujian has gained trust among high-end consumers, as evidenced by endorsements from prominent business leaders during a polar expedition [7]. - The company's vision emphasizes altruism in business, aiming to provide quality liquor to every company while breaking down information barriers and channel monopolies [9]. - The current market turbulence is seen as a precursor to a value reconstruction in the liquor industry, moving from a focus on high prices to quality and customization [9].

文｜付双祺 近期，茅台接连召开两场重要会议——7月7日的贵州茅台酒销售有限公司半年市场工作会、7月9日的贵州茅台酱香酒营销有限公司半年市场工作会。 云酒头条关注到，在这两场会议上，"亲清"一词都被重点强调。 "亲清"理念绝非简单反腐，而是茅台应对行业"消费者主权时代"的渠道革命，将经销商纳入"服务共同体"，以厂商关系重构支撑"消费者为王"的战 略转型。 这种"角色变化"意味着，厂商将形成从传统合作关系到共建共赢的伙伴关系、从价格博弈到价值共创、从短期利益捆绑到长期生态共建。 比如，茅台集团党委书记、董事长张德芹提到，要与经销商保持"亲清"关系。 茅台集团总经理王莉也两次表示，要坚守底线，坚持"亲清共赢"理念。 "亲清"并不是新词，自2016年高层提出以来，便常作为"政商关系"的固定搭配，如"构建亲清型政商关系"等。 但在茅台的叙事表达中，"亲清"又是一个全新的词汇，甚至对整个酒行业来说，也是如此。 在云酒头条看来，张德芹与王莉近期频繁强调与经销商构建"亲清"关系，并提出"亲清共赢"理念，这一动向与白酒行业的深度调整以及茅台自身的战略转 型密切相关。 首先，应该如何理解"亲清"的内涵？ "亲"代表亲近、协同，即 ...

财报显示，2024年，五粮液实现营业总收入891.75亿元，同比增长7.09%；归母净利润318.53亿元，同 比增长5.44%，连续10年保持稳健增长。今年一季度，公司实现营业收入369.4亿元，同比增长6.05%； 利润总额204.31亿元，同比增长5.02%。 本报记者 梁傲男 7月11日晚间，宜宾五粮液股份有限公司（以下简称"五粮液"）发布2024年度分红派息实施公告。 公告显示，五粮液本次实施的利润分配方案为，以总股本388160.80万股为基数，向全体股东每10股派 发现金红利31.69元（含税），合计派发现金红利123.01亿元，占同期归母净利润的比例为38.62%。本 次权益分派股权登记日为7月17日。 在2024年度股东大会上，五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦提到，公司坚定践行为投资 者创造良好回报的初心使命，发布未来三年股东回报规划，每年度现金分红比例不低于70%、分红总额 不低于200亿元。2024年，五粮液实施100亿元大规模中期现金分红，叠加年度123亿元的分红方案，全 年分红总额达223亿元，分红率70%，创历史新高。 "截至目前，公司现金分红24次，分红总金额1164 ...

1、工信部发布信息化和工业化融合2025年工作要点，实施" 人工智能+制造"行动，支持企业在重点场 景应用通用大模型、行业大模型和智能体。2、2025年 医保目录调整正式启动，今年首次新增的商保 创 新药目录，主要聚焦创新程度高、临床价值大、患者获益显著，但因超出"保基本"定位暂时无法纳入基 本目录的药品。3、国有保险公司三年以上长周期考核机制全面落地，增加五年周期指标。4、多晶硅期 货三周飙涨近30%，现货市场上，多晶硅现货价格大幅回升，硅片厂商纷纷提价。机构表示，光伏下游 对涨价接受度有限，观望居多，实际成交有限。5、2连板 北方稀土：公司目前生产经营一切正常 有序 组织开展生产经营管理各项工作。2连板 中银证券：公司经营正常 无应披露而未披露的重大事项。 五 粮液：2024年度利润分配每10股派31.69元。大智慧：公司未开展" 稳定币"、"虚拟 资产交易"、" 跨境 支付"等相关业务。5连板 国投中鲁：公司生产经营情况未发生重大变化，股票交易存在较大波动风 险。4连板 华媒控股：预计上半年净亏损4650万元-6000万元，同比转亏。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomy - The core of the "Great Beautiful Act" signed by Trump includes significant tax cuts for corporations and individuals, reductions in clean energy subsidies, and cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, which will increase the fiscal deficit in the future [3] - The act is projected to boost the actual GDP by less than 0.5 percentage points and has an inflationary impact of no more than 0.15 percentage points by 2026 [3] - Over the next decade, the combination of tariffs and tax cuts is expected to increase the net deficit by approximately $1.3 trillion, maintaining a deficit rate around 6% [3] - Current economic conditions, including low unemployment and moderate inflation, suggest that the U.S. government debt does not face immediate risks [3] Group 2: Strategy - The passage of the "Great Beautiful Act" is anticipated to increase bond supply, which may lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields, potentially affecting market sentiment and stock prices in the short term [7] - Despite short-term liquidity disturbances, the overall credit cycle recovery and the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction trajectory remain unchanged, providing better buying opportunities for both U.S. stocks and bonds [7] Group 3: Quantitative & ESG - A real-time forecasting model driven by large language models (LLMs) is proposed to address the lag in macroeconomic indicators, allowing for timely adjustments in investment strategies based on economic changes [11] Group 4: Strategy - A forecast for the mid-year report indicates that A-share earnings growth may slow compared to the first quarter, but the second half of the year could see improved performance, particularly in the non-bank financial sector due to high market activity [14] - In the non-financial sector, midstream and upstream companies may face performance pressures due to price impacts, while sectors like gold, consumer upgrades, and tech hardware are expected to show structural strengths [14] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize in demand in the second half of 2025, driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption and encouraging births [17] - The mass food segment has shown signs of improvement since March, with new consumption trends in snacks and health drinks likely to drive valuation increases in the sector [17] - The liquor sector is currently in a valuation correction phase, but the basic valuation has reflected pessimistic expectations, indicating emerging investment value [17]