Core Insights - The conference emphasized the theme of "vitality and resilience, innovation and empowerment" to address contemporary challenges and explore future pathways [2] Economic Transition - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed to medium-speed growth, with a shift in growth drivers from investment and exports to innovation and consumption [3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for ten consecutive quarters leading up to Q3 2025, with actual growth rates of 5.4% and 5.2% in the first two quarters of 2025 [3] Long-term Growth Advantages - China possesses three long-term growth advantages: 1. Catch-up potential, with per capita income at approximately $14,000, indicating significant room for growth towards the levels of developed countries [3] 2. Advantages in new technology revolutions, particularly in digital and green technologies, where China is at the forefront of industrial engineering and commercial applications [4] 3. The scale of the market economy, highlighted by a large middle-income group and the potential for 900 million low-income individuals to transition to middle-income status, significantly expanding the consumer market [4] Financial Strength - The construction of a "manufacturing powerhouse, consumer powerhouse, and financial powerhouse" is essential for modernizing China's economy [5] - Financial systems must enhance their project selection capabilities to support the real economy, especially as the economy shifts towards innovation-driven growth [5] Currency and Internationalization - A strong currency is a key indicator of a financial powerhouse, with the need for the RMB to play a more significant role internationally [6] - Recommendations include balancing imports and exports while increasing the use of RMB for international transactions, thereby enhancing its liquidity and facilitating its internationalization [6]

A 股周四高开低走，航天板块维持 强势；港股下跌，国产半导体表现 不佳；欧洲股市上涨，美联储降息 提振市场情绪；美股在降息推动下 上涨，但甲骨文 (ORCL US) 财报 不及预期拖累科技股表现，纳指下 跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 受美股早盘下跌拖累，周四原油期 货收于 10 月以来的最低水平；投 资者权衡美联储的利率前景，黄金 价格上涨，白银现货和伦敦期铜再 创历史新高。 固 定 收 益 周四美国国债基本持稳，收益率轻 微上涨约 1 个基点，走势延续陡峭 化。30 年期国债标售表现稳健。亚 洲债市表现稳健，利差收窄 1-2 个 基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 环球市场动态 中 央 经 济 工 作 会 议 稳 中 求 进 股 票 2025 年 12 月 12 日 ▪ 中央经济工作会议认为国内的矛盾主要是 "供强需弱"，强调要 "推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"： 要求继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，并指出 "发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，我们 认为政策或更注重政策协调与落地效果。总体上，我们预计明 ...

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月12日，杰富瑞量化策略师Shrikant Kale表示，日本股市在2026年前景具有强劲吸引力，因为东京证 券交易所推动的自下而上的企业改革，与自上而下的、促进增长的政治领导力相互叠加。 责任编辑：栎树 他表示，日本央行应该推进货币政策正常化，但对美国经济的担忧可能会提升对美联储放松政策的预 期，从而对日元形成上行压力。Kale预计，受盈利增长推动，2026年日本东证指数（Topix）将有13% 的上涨空间。他说："尽管市场追逐AI主题，但在高昂预期之下，我们认为盈利存在风险。" ...

分析人士表示，泰国提前举行大选预计将提振当地股市，而泰铢在今年因宏观因素已表现强劲，未来受 到的影响可能有限。大华继显分析师Kitpon Praipaisarnkit认为，如果泰自豪党或为泰党领导联合执政联 盟，将对泰国股市形成利好，因为两党的核心政策总体上都支持经济和资本市场。马来亚 银行分析师 Alan Lau称，"没有发现过去选举期间泰铢表现的明显规律。不过，除了政府政策外，泰铢的走势还可 能受到多种因素影响。近期，由于美元走软，泰铢已与其他区域货币一起升值。然而，我们注意到泰铢 表现优于其他货币，也不排除季节性旅游资金流入对其提供支撑的可能性（即使可能低于往年水平）。 目前来看，泰铢的势头确实较强。" ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that the worst is over, expecting the index to rise by 14% to 7800 points by 2026 [1] - Four reasons are provided for the growth cycle in the economy, corporate profits, and the stock market: (1) Corporate profit expectations have rebounded significantly from a low of -25% in April to around +15% currently [1] (2) Slowing wage growth allows for expansion in corporate profit margins [1] (3) Consumer demand is expected to accelerate, with companies showing stronger pricing power [1] (4) Following a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, two more rate cuts are anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Several market sectors are expected to perform well: (1) Non-essential consumer goods stocks, which have been rated "underweight" for four years, typically perform well during economic recoveries [3] (2) Small-cap stocks, which are cyclical and benefit more from declining interest rates [3] (3) Financial stocks, with potential improvements in commercial and industrial loan growth next year, making them attractive in terms of profit revisions, valuations, and holdings [3]

中经记者 张漫游 北京报道 2025年是"十四五"收官与"十五五"谋划的承启之年，也是进一步全面深化改革、推动中国式现代化行稳 致远的关键一年。 值此承前启后、继往开来的关键时刻，2025年12月9日至10日由《中国经营报》主办的"2025中国企业竞 争力年会"圆满闭幕。本届年会以"开局谋新、行稳致远"为主题，广邀政策制定者、学界权威专家与企 业领袖齐聚一堂，深入解析未来发展趋势与路径，共同探讨中国式现代化进程中企业如何把握机遇、构 筑可持续竞争力。 本届年会还特别设置了金融、数据要素、新消费、医药大健康四场平行论坛，聚焦关键领域，会聚近百 位行业嘉宾分享真知灼见，共话发展新路径。 开局谋新 行稳致远 在主论坛开幕致辞中，中国社会科学院工业经济研究所所长、党委副书记陈彦斌谈到，新时代的中国企 业竞争力在本质上是与国家战略同频共振，在高质量发展轨道上实现价值创造的能力，也是在深刻变革 中准确识变、科学应变、主动求变的能力，更是融合了科技创新、绿色发展、社会责任与国际视野的综 合性能力。广大企业要以科技创新锻造新质生产力，以品牌建设赢得市场的认可，以绿色低碳塑造未来 的新优势，以安全韧性筑牢发展的根基，以开放合作 ...

中债-1-10年国债指数的财富代码为CBA36801，基期为2012年12月31日，基点值为100，不包含分段子 指数。指数成分券原则上每日调整。 截至2025年11月28日，中债-1-10年国债指数的成分券数量279只，指数总市值约24.9万亿元，平均久期 为4.19年，平均到期收益率为1.52%，平均待偿期为4.5年，平均派息率为2.29%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月12日电为多角度反映人民币债券市场的走势，给投资者提供多元化的业绩比较基准和 投资标的，中债金融估值中心有限公司于2025年12月12日发布中债-1-10年国债指数。该指数成分券包 含境内公开发行且上市流通的待偿期1年至10年（含10年）的记账式国债。该指数可作为投资该类债券 的业绩基准和标的指数。 ...

市场对于美联储后续的政策节奏保持关注。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具数据显示，目前市场认为美联储在下次会议上维持利率不变的概率已升至约 78%。有分析指出，美联储可能在2026年上半年进入一段政策观望期。（注：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成 个人投资建议。） 来源：市场资讯 在降息决议公布后，美元指数出现下跌。较低的利率环境通常有助于降低持有黄金等非收益型资产的机会成本，而美元走弱则使得以美元计价的黄金对其他 货币持有者而言更具吸引力。 根据最新公布的经济预测摘要（SEP），美联储官员对2026年美国经济增速的预测中位数较9月份有所上调。不过，美联储内部对未来利率路径的分歧明 显。本次利率决议以9票赞成、3票反对通过，这是2019年以来首次出现三张异议票。同时，美联储宣布将于12月12日起启动购买短期国债的操作，以维持充 足的准备金供应。 美元走弱以及美联储最新降息举措，为黄金市场提供了支撑。美国联邦储备委员会于当地时间12月10日结束的货币政策会议上宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区 间下调25个基点至3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储自今年9月以来连续第三次降息，累计 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the China State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which has shown a slight increase, with specific stocks like Huayang Co., Ltd. and Western Mining experiencing notable gains [1] - The China State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has seen a recent increase of 0.18%, with an average daily trading volume of 2.8974 million yuan over the past month [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - Since the beginning of 2025, China's economy has demonstrated two unexpected strengths: resilient exports and a robust capital market, supported by external factors like the Fed's easing cycle and proactive domestic policies [2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting in December reaffirmed the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, opening up space for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The ongoing structural transition in China's economy is expected to lead to a focus on technology and dividend stocks in the A-share market for 2026, with technology being a long-term strategic direction [2] Group 3 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Jizhong Energy, and Shanxi Coal International, collectively accounting for 16.99% of the index [3] - The performance of individual stocks within the index varies, with notable movements such as COSCO Shipping Holdings increasing by 0.40% and Jizhong Energy decreasing by 0.18% [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national financing cooperation platform has significantly increased its support for enterprises, with a total financing amount exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan, and 70% of this financing is directed towards innovative enterprises in specialized and advanced manufacturing sectors [1] - In the first 11 months of this year, the national financing cooperation platform added 289.7 billion yuan in financing for enterprises, indicating a strong commitment to supporting the manufacturing sector [1] - The platform has established 25 specialized service zones and has gathered over 400,000 enterprises, 3,000 financial institutions, and more than 800 financial products [1] Group 2 - In the first 11 months, loans in the manufacturing sector saw significant growth, with 18.1% increase in loans for high-end equipment manufacturing and 28.2% increase in loans for artificial intelligence [3] - Industrial green loans reached 735.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, showcasing the emphasis on sustainable industrial practices [3] - The People's Bank of China and other departments have set a goal to fully meet the effective credit demand of manufacturing enterprises by 2027, indicating a long-term commitment to financial support for the sector [5] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated 66 national pilot cities for financing cooperation, promoting integrated financing activities for technology and industry [5] - Over 130 hard technology projects have received equity financing exceeding 11 billion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of the financing initiatives [5]