Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade is a crucial component of its open economy and plays a key role in facilitating domestic and international dual circulation, with a total import and export volume reaching 43.8 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years [1] Group 1: Market Expansion and New Opportunities - Star Refrigeration achieved a "nine consecutive increases" in exports, growing from $30 million to nearly $200 million, by consolidating traditional markets and accelerating expansion into the "Belt and Road" markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [2] - The company has established a production base in Thailand, with an annual capacity of 80,000 units, primarily targeting the Southeast Asian market [2] - The expansion into new markets and the establishment of smart factories have significantly improved production capacity and efficiency [2] Group 2: New Trade Models and Digital Transformation - The online exhibition model adopted by Litian Toys allows overseas buyers to place orders anytime, showcasing over 300,000 toy products [4] - The introduction of AI products in Yiwu International Trade City has enhanced product visibility and accessibility for foreign buyers [5] - New trade models, including cross-border e-commerce and live streaming sales, are becoming vital forces driving China's foreign trade growth [5] Group 3: Innovation and Product Development - Ecovacs Robotics has seen high demand for its smart lawn mowers, with 40% of its products exported, emphasizing the importance of continuous innovation to remain competitive in the global market [6][7] - Companies are focusing on high-tech, high-value-added products, with electric vehicles, 3D printers, and industrial robots gaining traction in international markets [7] Group 4: Brand Development and Market Penetration - Sen Dic Sports has transitioned from a traditional OEM to a multinational brand, exporting to over 60 countries and employing more than 3,000 people [8] - The company has developed six proprietary brands and collaborates with international sports brands to enhance its market presence [9] - The rise of domestic brands in international markets is evident, with self-owned brand exports increasing to 21.8% of total exports in 2024 [10] Group 5: Policy Support and Trade Facilitation - Hongfujin Precision Electronics has benefited from innovative customs policies, reducing clearance times significantly and achieving a 30% year-on-year increase in import and export volume [11] - Various policy measures have been implemented to support foreign trade stability, including simplifying import and export processes and expanding export credit insurance [12] - Despite external challenges, China's foreign trade demonstrates resilience and potential for growth through innovation and adaptation [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant price increase in badminton products, particularly shuttlecocks, driven by raw material shortages and increased market demand [1][2][3] - Major manufacturers like Victor, Yonex, and Li Ning have announced price hikes ranging from 5% to 29%, with the retail price of popular shuttlecocks nearly tripling over two years [1][2] - The cost of producing shuttlecocks has risen by approximately 20%, primarily due to fluctuating feather prices, which have increased from 0.9 yuan to 1 yuan per piece within a short period [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of feathers, a key raw material for shuttlecocks, has been inconsistent, with fluctuations in the number of meat ducks and geese being raised in China from 2019 to 2024 [3] - The demand for badminton products has expanded, particularly among youth training programs and corporate team-building events, leading to increased pressure on supply chains [5][6] - The number of youth participating in badminton competitions has doubled in five years, influenced by educational policies and the growth of training institutions [6] Group 3 - Manufacturers are exploring alternative materials for shuttlecocks, such as synthetic and nylon options, due to the rising costs and supply issues associated with natural feathers [4] - The price of ordinary shuttlecocks is perceived to have reached a ceiling, with prices around 140 to 200 yuan per tube, beyond which consumers may seek alternatives [4] - The market dynamics involve multiple layers of distributors, each adding a markup, which contributes to the final retail price experienced by consumers [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected retail performance for Q1 2025, with overall revenue growth in double digits, particularly strong growth from Anta and FILA brands [7] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for $290 million enhances Anta's multi-brand strategy and global presence in the outdoor apparel market [7] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level with a slight increase in discount rates, indicating stable demand [7] - The financial forecasts for net profit are projected at RMB 134.1 billion, RMB 147.0 billion, and RMB 160.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 14, and 13 [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections are as follows: - FY2023: RMB 623.6 billion - FY2024: RMB 708.3 billion - FY2025E: RMB 779.5 billion - FY2026E: RMB 839.2 billion - FY2027E: RMB 900.7 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are expected to be 16%, 14%, 10%, 8%, and 7% respectively [6] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - FY2023: RMB 102.4 billion - FY2024: RMB 156.0 billion - FY2025E: RMB 134.1 billion - FY2026E: RMB 147.0 billion - FY2027E: RMB 160.1 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are expected to be 35%, 52%, -14%, 10%, and 9% respectively [6] - The gross margin is projected to be around 62% for the next few years, with slight fluctuations [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Anta Sports [3][10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA both experienced high single-digit growth, while other brands saw growth between 65% and 70%. The company is deepening online discounts and has a relatively healthy inventory situation [1][2][10] - Anta plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin for $290 million to enhance its outdoor brand portfolio, which is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025 [6][10] - The projected net profits for Anta from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 13.43 billion, 15.51 billion, and 17.15 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, 15%, and 11% respectively, excluding one-time gains from the Amer acquisition [1][10] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 77.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%. The company expects to achieve revenues of 85.45 billion yuan in 2026 and 92.97 billion yuan in 2027 [8][10] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 16x for 2025 and 14x for 2026 [10] - As of the end of Q1 2025, Anta's inventory turnover ratio is less than 5, indicating effective inventory management [6][10] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand saw high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, with children's products also performing well. The overall online sales for the brand experienced low double-digit growth [1][11] - FILA's sales in Q1 2025 showed high single-digit growth, with children's products growing at a low double-digit rate and the FILA Fusion line achieving high double-digit growth [2][11] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, reported significant growth rates of 60% and 100% respectively in Q1 2025 [2][11]

2025 年 4 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 20,682 | 2.06 | 21.32 | | 恒生国企 | 7,668 | 1.76 | 32.94 | | 恒生科技 | 4,814 | 2.66 | 27.88 | | 上证综指 | 3,224 | 1.16 | 8.36 | | 深证综指 | 1,868 | 2.46 | 1.66 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,901 | 2.27 | 0.48 | | 美国道琼斯 | 39,594 | -2.50 | 5.05 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,268 | -3.46 | 10.45 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 16,387 | -4.31 | 9.17 | | 德国 DAX | 20,563 | 4.53 | 22.75 | | 法国 ...

Macro Insights - The US March CPI data was weaker than expected, with core CPI month-on-month dropping from 0.23% in February to 0.06%, and year-on-year at 2.8%, below the expected 3.0% [2] - The overall CPI month-on-month fell from 0.22% in February to -0.05%, with year-on-year CPI decreasing to 2.4%, both below expectations [2] - Despite the cooling inflation in March, market reactions were muted due to ongoing concerns about tariffs and their impacts, with little change in Fed rate cut expectations [2] Tariff Policy Analysis - On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariff plan, while imposing a 10% tariff on countries outside China, Mexico, and Canada, and increasing the reciprocal tariff on China to 145% [3] - Tariffs are expected to remain a frequently adjusted tool in Trump's negotiations, with potential for further increases against countries perceived as unfavorable [3] - The market may gradually become desensitized to tariff policy changes, with uncertainty becoming a new norm [3] Energy Price Impact - In March, China's CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 0%, while PPI was -2.5%, also below expectations [4] - The decline in energy prices has contributed to the downward pressure on PPI, indicating a broader economic impact [4] Fixed Income Market Trends - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose sharply from 4.0% to around 4.5%, despite weakening economic fundamentals [5] - The bond market's significant adjustment occurred without drastic changes in macroeconomic data, raising investor concerns [6] Energy Sector Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission released a plan for upgrading coal power plants to enhance flexibility, indicating a market potential of 100-200 billion yuan annually [9] - Companies like Dongfang Electric are recommended due to their involvement in this transition [9] Aviation and Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is seen as a key area for investment, with potential market space reaching trillions, driven by regulatory changes and advancements in eVTOL technology [10] Company-Specific Insights - Chongqing Bank is covered for the first time with a buy/hold rating, targeting a PB of 0.70/0.47, benefiting from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [12] - Anta Sports reported strong Q1 performance with retail growth across brands, maintaining a buy rating due to competitive advantages [13] - Yutong Heavy Industries showed a 77% increase in new energy vehicle sales, with a robust cash flow supporting its growth outlook [13] - Pinggao Electric is expected to see significant profit growth due to high voltage business expansion, with a buy rating maintained [17] - Wanfu Biology's international business led to a 10.9% revenue increase, with a buy rating supported by stable cash flow and margin improvements [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Anta reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with the acquisition of German outdoor brand Wolfskin further enhancing its outdoor portfolio [2] - The main brand of Anta shows vitality with a high single-digit growth in Q1, driven by strong performance in children's products and online sales [2] - FILA brand also demonstrated robust growth, with high single-digit increases in revenue, particularly in children's and trendy products [3] - Other brands like Descente and KOLON experienced significant growth, with Descente's revenue growth nearing 60% [4] - The acquisition of Wolfskin, a professional outdoor brand, is expected to complement Anta's mid-range outdoor market presence and enhance its international footprint [5] - Revenue forecasts for Anta are projected to grow by 10% in 2025, 8% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, with net profit expected to reach 134 billion, 147 billion, and 161 billion RMB respectively [6] Summary by Sections Main Brand Performance - Anta's main brand revenue grew in high single digits in Q1, with children's products and online sales also showing strong growth [2] FILA Brand Performance - FILA's revenue growth was high single digits, with children's and trendy products leading the way, and online sales outpacing offline [3] Other Brands - Descente's revenue growth approached 60%, while KOLON's revenue nearly doubled, indicating strong performance across outdoor and women's sports segments [4] Acquisition of Wolfskin - The acquisition of Wolfskin for approximately 2.9 billion USD (about 21.2 billion RMB) is expected to enhance Anta's outdoor brand portfolio and market presence in Europe and China [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Anta are 782 billion RMB in 2025, 846 billion RMB in 2026, and 909 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 134 billion, 147 billion, and 161 billion RMB [6]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group announced the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for a cash consideration of $290 million, aiming to enhance its presence in the outdoor sports market and strengthen its multi-brand strategy [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 or early Q3 of 2025, subject to customary closing conditions [2]. - Jack Wolfskin has a strong presence in the outdoor lifestyle segment, with 495 stores globally, including 226 in Europe and 269 in Asia [2]. Group 2: Market Positioning - The addition of Jack Wolfskin will enhance Anta's brand matrix, focusing on the mass outdoor segment and mid-range market, allowing for a comprehensive layout in the outdoor sector [3]. - The global outdoor market is experiencing rapid growth, with China being a significant driver. Anta's subsidiary, Amer Sports, is projected to see an 18% revenue increase in 2024, with functional apparel growing by 36% [3]. Group 3: Operational Synergies - Anta's established supply chain and digital capabilities are expected to drive cost efficiency for Jack Wolfskin, leveraging its mature supply chain network in China and Southeast Asia [3]. - The collaboration between Jack Wolfskin's German engineering design team and Anta's Asian manufacturing capabilities is anticipated to create growth opportunities globally, including in China [3]. Group 4: Multi-Brand Strategy - Anta has been implementing a multi-brand strategy since acquiring the rights to the Italian brand FILA in 2009, covering various segments such as mass sports, fashion sports, and professional outdoor [4]. - The company has developed core competencies in multi-brand management, retail operations, and global resource integration, which will facilitate the rapid market positioning and brand revitalization of Jack Wolfskin [4][5]. Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The acquisition is expected to provide Anta with more market opportunities and share in the outdoor sector, reinforcing previous acquisitions in this market [5]. - Analysts predict that Anta's brands will continue to experience high growth rates in the outdoor segment through 2025, supported by increasing interest and engagement in outdoor activities [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 operational data showing high single-digit growth for its main brand, FILA, and other brands, which aligns with market expectations. The acquisition of the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin for a base price of $290 million is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025 [2][3] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the main brand achieved high single-digit growth, consistent with the annual growth forecast. The growth rate remained stable compared to Q4 2024 and improved from Q1 2024. This growth is attributed to the continuous adjustment of store types, including the opening of new store formats like Super Anta and Anta Champion [3] - FILA also reported high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, exceeding annual growth expectations, with growth rates stable compared to Q4 2024 [3] - Other brands, including Descente, KOLON, and MAIA, experienced growth rates of 65-70% in Q1 2025, up from 50-55% in Q4 2024 and 25-30% in Q1 2024, indicating improvements in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth [3] Investment Recommendations - The impact of U.S. tax increases on the company is minimal, as overseas revenue accounts for less than 1%. The company anticipates high single-digit growth for the main brand and mid-single-digit growth for FILA in 2025, with KOLON and DESCENTE expected to grow by 30%. The company plans to have a total of 6,900-7,000 Anta stores, 2,600-2,700 Anta Kids stores, 2,100-2,200 FILA stores, and 260-270 DESCENTE stores by the end of 2025 [4] - In the medium to long term, the outdoor market is expected to improve, with KOLON and DESCENTE likely to enhance their core competitiveness and market share. The newly acquired Jack Wolfskin is expected to contribute additional revenue, although there may be short-term integration losses and cost pressures [4] - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 77 billion, 85.9 billion, and 96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit forecasts of 13.87 billion, 15.91 billion, and 17.88 billion yuan for the same years. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.94, 5.67, and 6.37 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 16, 14, and 12 times, respectively [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports (02020.HK) announced the conditional acquisition of 100% equity in Callaway Germany Holdco GmbH for a base price of USD 290 million, plus adjustments for net working capital and other customary items, with completion expected in late Q2 or early Q3 of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The acquisition involves the purchase of the outdoor apparel, footwear, and equipment brand "Jack Wolfskin," which is registered in Germany and operates globally [1] - The transaction is structured to include customary adjustments related to net working capital [1] - The completion timeline for the acquisition is projected for the second half of 2025 [1]