[Table_Reporto] 2025 年 07 月 28 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（7.21-7.25） 跨市场联动下的债市"逆风期"何时结束？ S 风险资产走强是本轮债市"逆风"的主因 "逆风期"需要重点关注的风向标 反内卷行情能否延续短期内或应重点关注 PPI 能否确认改善。短期来看，虽然 美国特朗普政府引发的全球关税谈判事件仍对资本市场定价具有重大意义，但 考虑到关税问题具有反复性，该事件对债券市场的边际影响可能已逐步减弱， 债券市场定价幅度预计相对有限。而当前由反内卷预期催化的风险资产行情却 仍有可能延续，不过目前无论是对风险资产或是无风险资产的定价都是源于价 格水平回升的预期，若 7月 PPI指数未能实现实质性回升，债市情绪或有可能 迎来修复窗口期。另外，本周即将召开的政治局会议按惯例将研讨下半年经济 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶昱宏 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.c ...

证券研究报告 保险Ⅱ 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 28 日 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 引导行业分红险转型，有效降低负债成本和资产负债久期缺口 投资评级： 看好（首次） ——保险公司调整人身险产品预定利率点评 投资要点： 事件：7 月 25 日，中国保险行业协会组织召开人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询 委员会 2025 年二季度例会，保险业专家就人身保险产品预定利率发表了意见，认为当前 普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为 1.99%。 联系人 紧随其后中国人寿、太保寿险等公告将调整新备案保险产品的预定利率最高值，其中普通 型保险产品预定利率最高值为 2.0%，分红型保险产品预定利率最高值为 1.75%，万能型 保险产品最低保证利率最高值为 1.0%。保险公司将于 2025 年 8 月 31 日 24 时起，不再 接受超过上述预定利率最高值的保险产品投保申请。 2、考虑到 25 年以来的长期利率走势和 25Q1 预定利率研究值，我们认为本次预定利率 的调整符合市场预期，但传统险 ...

7月28日，和讯投顾徐梦婧表示，中午的回调就是震仓，不出所料今天下午创业板继续创新高，所以说 这就是我们中午直播的价值，那今天全天最值得关注的就是空头借机发力，考验了5天均线，导致了盘 中出现两续两波向下。那么随着关税谈判第三轮进入尾声，月底还有中报会议召开，同时美财长也说不 不再延期，8月1号的关税最后期限三个因素叠加到一起，我们应该怎么应对呢？ 首先我们先来看一下，今天成交量相较于上周五而言是先缩量后放量的，但是最终还是缩量了近500 亿，那盘中的放量也是基于盘中的两波跳水所导致的。那今天主力军是保险啊保险日线突破，但是券商 今天只要拉板就被爆头，没有办法带动起情绪，所以说今天成交量缩量也比较正常。那同时呢我们看到 今天基建和资源股都出现了较大幅度的回落，但是银行上午在这里顶盘，还有券商在局部的活跃迹象再 叠加科技这个方向集体出现了上拉，所以说情绪稳在这个位置没有太大问题。指数呢整体趋势很强，但 是盘中每次强行跳水都在做控制节奏的动作，但趋势起来了不会缺买盘，承接力度比较强，说明多空双 方还是有平衡，都在等待下一个变盘时机。 同时我们观察一下上午第一波跳水之后下午的回拉，我们发现像消费电子机器人这些方向都 ...

CANADA - 2025/04/06: In this photo illustration, the Centene Corporation logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Centene (NYSE:CNC) recently reported a surprise loss of $0.16 per share for Q2, significantly missing analyst expectations of $0.23 per share. This downturn is primarily attributed to a continued increase in medical costs for government-backed insurance plans, evi ...

Core Insights - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) highlights the increasing practicality of AI applications in the financial sector, with a focus on digital labor and the restructuring of business interactions [1][2] - Financial intelligent agents are evolving from single-point applications to core business scenarios, such as credit decision-making, indicating a shift towards scalable applications [1][2] - The financial industry is seen as an ideal sector for AI implementation due to its high digitalization and data density, with various financial sub-industries exploring intelligent agent applications [2] Group 1: AI Applications in Finance - Financial intelligent agents are expanding in both depth and breadth, with a significant increase in the number of application scenarios and improvements in business efficiency [2] - Major banks have implemented a technology architecture combining general models, specialized models, and intelligent agents, while leading securities firms have launched multiple AI application products [2] - The insurance sector is advancing the construction of intelligent claims systems, showcasing the diverse applications of AI across financial services [3][4] Group 2: Transformation of Business Interactions - The interaction model in financial services is transforming, exemplified by Shanghai Bank's launch of an AI mobile banking app that allows users to conduct transactions through conversational interfaces [5] - This shift from traditional menu navigation to "dialogue as a service" enhances user experience and personalizes financial services, particularly benefiting older customers [5] Group 3: Challenges in AI Implementation - Despite the advancements, challenges remain, including the "hallucination" issue of large models, which can lead to inaccuracies in instruction adherence [6] - The need for high-quality data sets for training specialized models is critical, requiring significant investment and long-term commitment [6][7] - Many financial institutions lack the engineering capabilities to integrate business needs, computational power, models, data, and knowledge bases effectively [7]

下图显示了一个有趣的对比：绿线代表标普500指数，红线追踪民主党ETF，蓝线反映共和党ETF。 来源：美股研究社 在金融市场，上市公司内幕人士买卖股票的行动往往受到密切关注，他们能在公司发布重要消息前就了 解到相关情报，因此他们必须披露有关交易。 此外，还有一群人也备受关注：美国国会议员。 Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (NYSE:GOP)追踪共和党国会议员的美股持仓，管理 费为0.75%。此ETF的最大持仓行业包括：科技24.15%、金融16.32%、工业13.96%、能源11.77%及医疗 保健7.40%。主要持仓包括： 摩根大通（NYSE:JPM）：4.49% iShares 比特币信托ETF（NASDAQ:IBIT）：3.12% AT&T（NYSE:T）：3.06% Comfort Systems USA（NYSE:FIX）：2.62% 雪佛龙（NYSE:CVX）：2.56% 好事达（NYSE:ALL）：2.47% 英伟达(NVIDIA)（NASDAQ:NVDA）：2.39% 英特尔（NASDAQ:）：2.39% 泰森食品（NYSE: ...

Core Insights - Qingdao's financial sector showed strong performance in the first half of the year, with premium income growing by 8.31%, surpassing national averages [1] - The balance of green loans reached 592.38 billion yuan, increasing by 15.28% since the beginning of the year, supporting high-quality economic development [1] Financing Challenges - Qingdao's banking sector reported a loan balance of 3.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 152.7 billion yuan since the start of the year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.36% [1] - The deposit balance reached 2.85 trillion yuan, with an increase of 151.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 6.42% [1] - The insurance sector achieved a premium income of 45.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.31% [1][2] Real Estate Financing - Qingdao's financial regulatory bureau implemented 15 new policies to stabilize the real estate market, including support for project commencement and housing consumption [2] - By the end of June, there were 316 projects on the "white list" for financial support, with a total credit amount of 209.8 billion yuan and a disbursement amount of 151.8 billion yuan [2] Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - A "Small and Micro Enterprise Financing Coordination Month" was organized, resulting in 5.42 million loans issued, totaling 278.9 billion yuan [3] - The interest rate for loans under the small and micro enterprise coordination mechanism was 3.38%, remaining below national and provincial levels [3] - New loans for small micro enterprises reached 44.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.8% [3] Green Finance Initiatives - Qingdao's financial regulatory bureau issued 16 policy measures to expand the green investment and financing market, with green loan balances increasing to 592.38 billion yuan [4] - The focus on marine economy led to the issuance of guidelines to support high-quality development in this sector, encouraging financial institutions to establish specialized branches and departments [4] Support for Foreign Trade - A set of measures was introduced to support foreign trade enterprises, including a monthly monitoring mechanism for a whitelist of foreign trade companies [5] - The initiative aimed to cover 26,400 foreign trade enterprises, enhancing financial services through tailored strategies [5] Future Directions - The Qingdao financial regulatory bureau plans to promote pilot projects for financial asset investment companies and technology enterprise mergers and acquisitions [6] - There will be a focus on improving market access processes and enhancing regulatory capabilities to ensure compliance and safety in the financial system [6]

Core Viewpoint - The executive team of Hengqin Life Insurance Co., Ltd. is experiencing significant turnover, with multiple core executives leaving the company, leading to concerns about organizational stability and performance amidst ongoing financial losses [1][3][5]. Executive Changes - Hengqin Life's executive team has shrunk from 8 members at the beginning of the year to 5 currently, with several veteran executives departing, including Zhang Lin, who held multiple key positions [3][4]. - Zhang Lin, who joined the company in June 2019, is no longer listed among the executives, highlighting a broader trend of leadership changes within the company [3][4]. - The company is set to hold an important meeting in April 2024, where the first chairman, Lan Yadong, will officially retire, and Qian Zhonghua has been nominated as the new chairman [3][4]. Financial Performance - Hengqin Life reported a net loss of 3.57 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, continuing a trend of financial instability with cumulative losses exceeding 15 billion yuan since 2022 [6][7]. - The company has faced fluctuating profits since its inception, with significant losses recorded in 2017 (820 million yuan), 2018 (2.46 billion yuan), 2019 (2.41 billion yuan), and again in 2022 (1.79 billion yuan), 2023 (7.72 billion yuan), and 2024 (5.64 billion yuan) [7]. Strategic Challenges - The company has been heavily reliant on traditional savings-type products, which has limited its ability to diversify into higher-value insurance products such as health and dividend insurance [7][8]. - Industry experts suggest that Hengqin Life needs to optimize its product structure, enhance actuarial and investment management capabilities, and leverage digital transformation to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs [8]. Market Conditions - The insurance industry is facing a downward adjustment in the predetermined interest rates, which could impact the profitability of traditional and dividend insurance products [8]. - The current research value for ordinary life insurance products' predetermined interest rate is 1.99%, down from 2.13%, indicating a trend that may affect sales and profitability in the long term [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The company maintains a leading position in the property insurance sector, with a market share of 37.5% in premium income as of 2024, significantly higher than its competitors [1][16] - The company's car insurance business is a key profit driver, contributing 92.85 billion yuan in underwriting profit in 2024, supported by strong operational capabilities and a leading position in the new energy vehicle insurance market [2][46] - Non-car insurance business is positioned for growth, with premium income reaching 240.7 billion yuan in 2024, despite a short-term underwriting loss [3][74] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Property Insurance Leader - The company is the largest property insurance provider in China, with a premium income market share of 37.5% and a net profit market share of 47.3% as of 2024 [1][16] - The company has a strong state-owned background, with the Ministry of Finance holding 68.98% of shares, providing long-term resource support [32] - The profit structure is clear, driven by both underwriting and investment [35] 2. Business: Steady Development in Property Insurance and Resilient Investments 2.1. Underwriting: Strong Car Insurance Advantage, Significant Non-Car Potential - Car insurance constitutes 55% of the company's total premium income, with a 2024 underwriting profit of 92.85 billion yuan [2][48] - The company leads in new energy vehicle insurance, with 11.59 million vehicles insured in 2024, reflecting a 57.3% increase [2][66] - Non-car insurance has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9% over the past six years, with premium income reaching 240.7 billion yuan in 2024 [3][74] 3. Investment Resilience and Stable Dividend Returns - The total investment return rate for 2024 is 5.2%, with fixed income assets accounting for 60.2% of the portfolio [8] - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy, with a CAGR of 12.8% in cash dividends from 2011 to 2024 [8][43] - The dividend payout ratio averaged 36.5% over the years, with a per-share dividend of 0.54 yuan in 2024 [8][43] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue leading the industry, with projected insurance service revenues of 508.3 billion yuan in 2025 and net profits of 38.3 billion yuan [9] - The report provides a first-time coverage with a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong cost control in car insurance and growth potential in non-car insurance [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities and risks associated with stocks held by U.S. Congress members, highlighting two ETFs that track Republican and Democratic members' stock holdings, respectively [5][6][36]. Group 1: ETFs Tracking Congressional Holdings - The Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (NYSE:GOP) has a management fee of 0.75% and its largest sector allocations are Technology (24.15%), Financials (16.32%), Industrials (13.96%), Energy (11.77%), and Healthcare (7.40%) [5]. - The Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (NYSE:NANC) has a management fee of 0.74% and its largest sector allocations are Technology (39.46%), Communication Services (13.22%), Healthcare (11.18%), Consumer Discretionary (9.90%), Consumer Staples (8.79%), and Financials (8.55%) [6]. Group 2: Notable Stock Holdings - Major holdings in the Republican ETF include JPMorgan Chase (4.49%) and in the Democratic ETF include Nvidia (10.62%) and Microsoft (8.09%) [7][8]. - Stocks in these ETFs exhibit two characteristics: they are undervalued compared to fair value and they pay dividends [10]. Group 3: Tyson Foods - Tyson Foods, established in 1935, is the second-largest chicken and pork processor globally, with a dividend of $0.50 per share scheduled for September 12, yielding 3.67% [12][14]. - The company is expected to report a 20.6% growth in earnings per share (EPS) for the first nine months [16]. Group 4: Allstate - Allstate, an insurance company founded in 1931, will pay a dividend of $1 per share on October 1, with a yield of 2.03% [19][21]. - The company anticipates a 22.40% growth in EPS for the upcoming quarter [23]. Group 5: Fidelity National Information Services - Fidelity National Information Services, focused on fintech solutions, pays a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share, yielding 1.96% [28][30]. - The company is optimistic about its financial outlook and is planning a $12 billion acquisition to enhance its focus and profitability [34].