2025 年 04 月 29 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：叶思嘉（执业 S1130523080001） yesijia＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 内需：3 月政策加力逐步释放，2 月全国新房/二手房价格环比微跌接近持平。一线城市表现优于全国整体，新房 表现整体优于二手房，新房企稳迹象更明显，一线城市新房已连续 4 个月转正。一线新房价格环比+0.1%，一线 二手房价格环比+0.2%。 ◼ 出口：受关税影响，3 月各类别（除家电、纺织）出口额累计同比不及往年同期，家电、纺织逆势增长，家电连 续 6 个月累计同比增长。各类别（除箱 ...

Market Performance - The A-share index rose by 1.15% during the week of April 21-25, with the CSI 1000, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.85%, 1.74%, and 1.38% respectively, outperforming the overall A-share index [1] - Small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with the CSI 1000's performance of 1.85% surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index's increase of 0.38% [1] - The cyclical and growth styles outperformed the overall A-share index, with increases of 2.44% and 1.41% respectively, while stable, consumer, and financial styles saw smaller gains of 0.73%, 0.24%, and 0.21% [1] Industry Insights - The automotive, beauty care, and basic chemical industries led the gains among primary industries, with increases of 4.87%, 3.80%, and 2.71% respectively [1] - Conversely, the food and beverage, real estate, and coal industries experienced declines [1] Policy Developments - Recent meetings emphasized the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts and maintaining ample liquidity to support the real economy [2] - The World Bank highlighted China's commitment to adopting more proactive macro policies to achieve annual growth targets amid complex external conditions [2] Consumer Sector - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy to boost inbound consumption, which currently accounts for about 0.5% of China's GDP, compared to 1%-3% in major countries [3] - The consumer sector has shown a rotation upward since mid-April, with retail (+6.35%), real estate (+3.20%), beauty care (+1.97%), and food and beverage (+1.00%) sectors leading the gains [3] Future Outlook - The smart consumption sector is expected to see significant growth driven by policy support and demographic changes, with a shift from optional to essential consumption [4] - Analysts suggest focusing on three key areas for investment: dividend stocks with attractive valuations, technology sectors benefiting from policy support, and large consumer sectors supported by domestic demand strategies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for a proactive approach in economic management, focusing on domestic demand expansion and self-sufficiency in response to external uncertainties [1][8] - The Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of strengthening bottom-line thinking and preparing contingency plans to ensure economic stability, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1][8] - The report indicates that expanding internal demand is crucial for countering external shocks and low domestic inflation, with future policies expected to revolve around this central theme [1][8] Group 2 - Domestic economic data for Q1 shows positive signs, with industrial production and domestic consumption showing relative strength, although Q2 may face volatility due to external factors [2][16] - The report notes a potential easing of the "tariff war" between the US and China, which could positively impact market sentiment, but warns that formal trade negotiations have not yet commenced, leaving external trade risks high [2][17] - The report suggests that the capital market may benefit from strong signals of domestic demand expansion, with sectors such as consumer goods, real estate, and technology being highlighted for potential investment opportunities [3][18] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors that may benefit from the expansion of domestic demand, including consumer electronics, automotive, and healthcare, particularly in light of upcoming holidays that may boost spending [3][18] - It also recommends a cautious approach to investment in defensive assets and dividend-paying stocks to mitigate ongoing external risks [3][18] - The focus on technology and self-sufficiency is underscored, with attention drawn to domestic alternatives in critical areas such as semiconductors and emerging industries like robotics and healthcare [5][18]

A 股策略周报：认清形势 积极应对 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 P2 东兴证券策略报告 认清形势 积极应对 A 股策略: 从 A 股近期走势来看，市场基本消除贸易战对指数的影响，市场重新步入常态化走势，在业绩披露期即将结 束的阶段，市场阶段性业绩风险释放，展望政策未来指向更加清晰，对资本市场的稳定和活跃给予较高定位，我们倾向 于指数未来将会呈现出稳中有升的格局。高质量发展未来仍将是市场的主线，我们继续看好大科技的主线地位，中美博 弈仍是主旋律，自主可控受消息面影响出现调整可视为布局机会。从政策角度，消费是下一步关注重点，提高中低收入 者福利和生育养老等方面政策支持，服务消费为代表的政策红利将会逐步释放，重点关注生育、教育、文旅等政策扶持 方向。 投资建议：中美贸易领域继续博弈可能性大，政策做好充分应对，短期市场风险偏好稳步回升，业绩风险逐步兑现，可 逐步提升仓位比例。首选人工智能、机器人为代表的大科技板块，经历了业绩兑现期之后，市场关注度有望重回行业发 展层面，主题性投资热度有望恢复。其次关注消费，未来政策红利充足，重点关注 ...

据央广网4月27日报道，商务部等6部门出台《关于进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入境消费的通知》，通 知提出，下调离境退税起退点。境外旅客同日同店购买退税物品金额达到200元人民币，且符合其他相 关规定的，可以申请办理离境退税。优化离境退税支付服务。 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 江海证券认为，此前免税店针对的顾客包括国内消费者和国外旅游者，免税店主要以进口商品为主，国 产商品进入免税店比重较小，部分免税店销售国有商品其实是有税商品，且品类有限。此次即买即退政 策后，预计免税店会引入更多的国产商品，退税流程也将更加便捷。 此外，利好国内的商贸零售行业，特别是百货公司，百货公司可申请增加退税和"即买即退"业务，境外 旅客退税便利度提升，目前该政策先后在上海、北京、广东、四川、浙江、深圳等地开展试点，利好当 地百货等零售业态公司。 公司方面，据招商证券表示，中国中免、格力地产（珠免集团）、王府井为A股主要免税公司。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 此外，将现金退税限额上调至20000元人民币。推动退税代理机构与支付机构、清算机构等加强合作， 在风险可控的前提下，通过移动支付、银行卡、现金等多种方式提 ...

Market Performance - Major global markets recorded gains, with Nasdaq up 6.73%, DAX up 4.89%, and S&P 500 rising over 4.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and other indices like CSI 300 and A50 saw more modest increases, with Hang Seng Index up 2.74% [1] A-Share Market - A-share market experienced fluctuations driven by policy dynamics and earnings expectations, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 1.74% weekly gain [2] - Daily average trading volume for the week reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 38 billion yuan from the previous week [2][6] Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector rose by 3.97%, while the power equipment sector saw a decline of 7.73% [3] - The automotive sector increased by 4.87%, and the beauty care sector rose by 3.8%, indicating strong performance in certain industries [5] Policy Impact - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for more proactive macro policies, suggesting a potential acceleration in policy implementation to boost market confidence [2] - The G20 meeting highlighted the importance of dialogue and policy coordination, which may enhance financial cooperation between China and the European Central Bank [1] Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus remains on domestic demand sectors, particularly in building materials, smart home appliances, and the hospitality industry, which are expected to benefit from policy upgrades [2]

Group 1 - The report identifies three significant export downturn periods in China: 2009-2014, 2016-2018, and 2023, with varying internal demand drivers such as infrastructure and consumption [4][12][14] - During the 2009-2014 downturn, the primary internal demand sectors were infrastructure and manufacturing, influenced by global economic crises [12] - The 2016-2018 period saw real estate and consumption as key internal demand sectors, impacted by trade protectionism and economic adjustments [13] - In 2023, the internal demand sectors shifted to consumption and infrastructure, driven by global economic slowdown and trade tensions [14] Group 2 - The report outlines structural policy responses during the three export downturns, emphasizing the need for export facilitation, infrastructure investment, and consumption stimulation [5][17] - Export policies evolved from short-term measures to stabilize trade to long-term structural optimization, focusing on enhancing trade facilitation and exploring new markets [18] - Infrastructure policies transitioned from traditional projects to major engineering and new infrastructure initiatives, particularly in response to economic challenges [18] - Real estate policies shifted from strict controls to significant relaxations, reflecting the changing economic landscape [20] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market during these downturns shows that the technology sector often outperformed, while the export chain struggled, particularly during the 2016-2018 period [22][24] - In the first downturn (2009-2014), the technology sector benefited from the smartphone boom, while the export chain lagged significantly by 26.08% in 2014 [23] - The second downturn (2016-2018) saw the red chip and internal demand chains perform relatively well, while the technology sector faced a downturn due to high valuations [24][28] - In 2023, the technology sector led the market, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence and digital economy, while the export chain remained under pressure [29][30]

受访者由看好消费板块转向人形机器人等板块。 本周（4月21日至4月25日），A股市场成交放量，连续5个交易日成交额维持在万亿元以上。本周，沪指累计上涨0.56%，深证成指上 涨1.38%，创业板指上涨1.74%，沪深300上涨0.38%。 | 名称 | 年初至今 | 本周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | | (%) | (%) | | 中证1000 | -0.31 | 1.85 | | 创业板指 | -9.08 | 1.74 | | 深证成指 | -4.78 | 1.38 | | 中证500 | -1.72 | 1.20 | | 上证指数 > | =1.69 | 0.56 | | 沪深300 | -3.76 | 0.38 | | 科创50 | 1.58 | -0.40 | | 北证50 | 25.28 | -2.16 | 从盈亏情况来看，本周有42%的受访者"盈利10%以内"，较上一期29%的比例大幅增长13个百分点；"亏损10%以内"的受访者占比 34%，上一期占比42%；"亏损10%到20%"的受访者占比11%，较上期继续下降2个百分点。 35%受访者认为大盘将站上3300点 对目前 ...

本周，大盘继续走出修复性行情，但更多地体现在局部板块上。全周，中小盘股、微盘股走势略强，大 盘股、蓝筹股表现略弱，本周的情况与上周相反。其中，国证2000指数、中证1000指数、创业板指数、 微盘股指数的涨幅均超过1.70%，而上证50指数下跌了0.33%。 那么，中小盘股表现略强，是否意味着稳市场的任务已经结束了？4月25日召开的政治局会议，有哪些 值得关注的内容？今天，达哥和牛博士就大家关注的话题展开讨论。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到了周末我们聊行情的时间。4月25日召开的政治局会议，引起了投资者的广 泛关注，你怎么看？对于下周的走势，你又是如何看待的？ 道达：我对比了本次会议与过去几次会议的表述，发现了一些值得关注的方向。 首先说下大家最为关注的股市与楼市。 去年12月及今年2月的政治局会议，表述都是"稳住楼市股市"；而本次政治局会议的表述则是"持续稳定 和活跃资本市场""持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势"。 综上，我认为，从股市的角度来看，持续稳定和活跃资本市场，将夯实市场根基；设立服务消费与养老 再贷款，应该是本次政治局会议最大的预期差。 对于资本市场，表述中的"活跃"两个字是超预期的。对于房地产市场来说， ...

2024年度商贸零售行业分红排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 每10股送转 | 每10股派现 | 派现金额（万 | 派现占净利润比例 | 股息率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （股） | （元） | 元） | （%） | （%） | | 601888 | 中国中 免 | 0.00 | 10.5 | 217230.20 | 50.91 | 1.42 | | 600415 | 小商品 | 0.00 | 3.3 | 180960.32 | 58.87 | 3.24 | | | 城 | | | | | | | 601061 | 中信金 属 | 0.00 | 1.68 | 82320.00 | 36.78 | 2.09 | | 600655 | 豫园股 份 | 0.00 | 1.9 | 73840.31 | 589.51 | 3.12 | | 002416 | 爱施德 | 0.00 | 5 | 61964.09 | 106.56 | 3.66 | | 600729 | 重庆百 | 0.00 | 13.6216 | 60000.00 | 45.64 | ...