年度报告——纯碱 风雨萧瑟，熊途依旧 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | 纯碱 | | : | 看跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 26 | 日 | 2025 年在行业扩能压力下，纯碱基本面呈过剩态势，年内 价格屡创新低。2026 年产能端的增长已是明牌，2025 年末 投产的 350 万吨产能将对 2026 年全年的纯碱供给端构成明 显冲击。本轮行业扩能预计至少持续到 2028 年，这种持续 大规模的低成本产能扩张对纯碱价格端的压制是显而易见 的。随着行业扩能压力进一步显现，加上明年煤价运行中 枢相较今年并无进一步下移空间，明年或有更多低竞争力 产能降负荷。预计 2026 年纯碱产量较 2025 年增长 3%左右。 ★2026 年纯碱消费量预计增长 2.7%，轻重碱表现继续分化： 能 源 化 工 近年来纯碱需求端维持增长态势。2025 年虽然重碱需求端 因浮法和光伏玻璃行业减产出现萎缩，但轻碱需求侧增长 较多，纯碱整体需求依然有所增长。展望 2026 年，我们认 为浮法和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) production, indicating a steady increase in output and market dynamics from 2025 to 2031 [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In October 2025, China's soda ash production reached 3.41 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of soda ash in China was 33.017 million tons, showing a cumulative increase of 5.2% [1] Group 2: Market Research - The report titled "2025-2031 China Soda Ash Industry Market Special Research and Competitive Strategy Analysis" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting has over a decade of experience in industry research, providing comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Sanyou Chemical has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a recent stock price increase but a decline in revenue and profit year-on-year [1][2]. - As of December 26, Sanyou Chemical's stock price rose by 2.16% to 6.16 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 12.716 billion CNY [1]. - The company has experienced a 15.64% increase in stock price year-to-date, but a 11.90% decrease in revenue to 14.164 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 2 - Sanyou Chemical's main business segments include viscose staple fiber (52.17%), soda ash (21.47%), and polyvinyl chloride (10.39%), among others [1]. - The company has distributed a total of 4.376 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 623 million CNY in the last three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 17.30% to 72,100, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 20.92% to 28,626 shares [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - Glass market sentiment is weak, with production and sales slightly declining and prices remaining volatile; supply contraction is insufficient, demand lacks improvement, and prices are under pressure [1] - Soda ash market sentiment is also weak, with prices in a narrow - range oscillation; production is decreasing but still high, demand is stable, and inventory is being reduced, but price rebound is restricted [1] - For silicomanganese, there is a mix of long and short sentiments, with prices oscillating; production and operating rates are low, but inventory is at a high level, and cost support is weakening [3] - For ferrosilicon, prices are in a narrow - range oscillation; production has significantly decreased, inventory pressure has eased, and fundamental contradictions have been mitigated [3] Group 3: Summary by Product Categories Glass - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and the center of spot market transactions moved down. In late December, some production lines were cold - repaired, and supply contracted. Daily melting of float glass decreased this week, and manufacturer inventory increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production decreased slightly, supply contraction was insufficient, rigid demand lacked improvement, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. With the Spring Festival approaching, rigid demand is expected to further decline, and high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. This week, production decreased month - on - month, and inventory was reduced month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production continued to decline but remained at a high level in the same period. Downstream demand was stable, and high - level inventory was being reduced, optimizing the supply - demand contradiction to some extent. However, the expected increase in float glass cold - repair plans and the launch of new soda ash production capacity restrict the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream demand on prices [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: After the release of the five - major steel product consumption data, there was a mix of long and short sentiments in the futures market, with prices oscillating. Spot prices were consolidating at high levels, with the northern market price ranging from 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5620 - 5670 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Enterprises are suffering continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the production reduction is insufficient, resulting in record - high inventory. Port manganese ore inventory continued to rise, and the total manganese element inventory slightly increased, weakening cost support. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and with the upcoming steel procurement, spot prices were stable. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon price was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Last week, production significantly declined as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to respond to the decline in demand. Inventory pressure was relieved, and fundamental contradictions were mitigated. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - side changes, and regional policies [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile and downward. The supply is expected to be abundant as the production of soda ash plants is at a high level and the second - phase project of Yuangxing is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash is 1184 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1130 yuan/ton, and the main base difference is - 54 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1130 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 146.70 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 109 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 82.74%. The weekly production of soda ash is 72.14 tons, including 39.03 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales Rate**: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 99.31% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.50 tons, with an operating rate of 73.90% [27]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash plants nationwide is 143.85 tons, a decrease of 4.06% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [33]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance and slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to weakening demand [4]. 3.8 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level during the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. The prices of finished products are under short - term pressure due to export license management policies but are expected to gradually digest policy disturbances. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and the macro level is in a policy observation period [3]. - For iron ore, the recent market environment is relatively mild. The decline in hot metal production has reduced marginal pressure. The late Spring Festival in 2026 has postponed the restocking time, and the low inventory of steel mills provides restocking demand expectations. Iron ore prices are expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the market macro - sentiment fluctuations have temporarily ended, and the black chain index has rebounded. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and possible emergencies in the manganese ore market [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price rebounds to fill the gap and fluctuates strongly. The supply decline depends on the production rhythm in the northwest. The demand from polysilicon weakens, and the demand from silicone is relatively stable in the short term. The price is expected to follow the market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. - For polysilicon, the production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. Although the upper - middle reaches are raising prices, the futures price is still unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a supply - demand relaxation pattern. In the short term, the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation [19]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The price decline space is limited due to corporate losses. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2057 tons to 58627 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 15590 lots to 1.581839 million lots. In the spot market, the rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanghai it was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 295 tons to 104588 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 9350 lots to 1.238912 million lots. In the spot market, the hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanghai it was 3280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar production increased slightly this week, apparent demand declined, and the inventory level was at a five - year low. For hot - rolled coils, production continued to decline, apparent demand strengthened slightly, inventory continued to decrease, and inventory contradictions were marginally alleviated. Beijing's relaxation of housing purchase policies may have a demonstration effect on other first - tier cities and help digest real - estate inventory. Overall, terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Iron Ore a. Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 778.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00). The open interest increased by 13387 lots to 567100 lots, and the weighted open interest was 932500 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.96 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.59% [4]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, while those from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot - metal production was stable at 226.58 tons. The profitability of steel mills improved. Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but were still at a five - year low. Iron ore prices are expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On December 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fluctuated, closing up 0.24% at 5846 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 64 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.64% at 5692 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 8 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment fluctuations have ended, and the black chain index has rebounded. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, and supply has declined due to losses. Future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, manganese ore cost - push for manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon supply contraction due to losses [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8835 yuan/ton, down 0.28% (- 25). The weighted open interest decreased by 1468 lots to 396686 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 365 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% (+ 2460). The weighted open interest increased by 2097 lots to 212843 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were unchanged. The basis was - 8410 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for polysilicon futures contracts from December 29, 2025 [13][14][15]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The short - term price rebounds to fill the gap and fluctuates strongly. Supply decline depends on the northwest production rhythm, and polysilicon demand support weakens. The price is expected to follow market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. - Polysilicon: Production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Although the upper - middle reaches are raising prices, the futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: The glass main contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.95% (+ 20). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan (unchanged), and in Central China it was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57% (331000 cases). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 13175 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13150 short positions [18]. - Soda ash: The soda ash main contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.77% (+ 9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan (unchanged). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57% (5000 tons), with heavy - soda inventory down 18800 tons and light - soda inventory up 23800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11632 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13318 short positions [20]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: Demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a supply - demand relaxation pattern. In the short term, the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation [19]. - Soda ash: Downstream demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weakening. The price decline space is limited due to corporate losses. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [21].

Group 1 - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 4.13% [1] - Light soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons week-on-week, while heavy soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a decrease of 68,200 tons [1] - On December 25, the price of light soda ash from Jiangsu Kunshan Jinggang decreased to 1,350-1,370 RMB/ton, while Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical's light soda ash price remained stable at 1,300 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - According to Caixin Futures, the demand for heavy soda ash is negatively impacted by the decline in float glass production, with the annual demand growth expected to be slightly negative [3] - Light soda ash demand is anticipated to continue growing due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity and improved exports, although the large base of soda ash production capacity will pressure cost lines [3] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that short-term commodity sentiment is decent, but fundamental changes in soda ash remain limited, with a mid-term trend expected to maintain a bearish outlook amid a supply surplus [3]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货12月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. Affected by the export license management policy, the prices of finished products still face some short - term pressure, and the policy impact is expected to be gradually digested later. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro - level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range. The support at the lower level is relatively solid in the short term. After the rebound of the futures price, the basis has shrunk [5]. - The market sentiment of the black commodity chain has clearly warmed up. The future trends of ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon are mainly led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese - silicon and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Also, the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply of ferrous alloys needs attention [8][9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest region [12]. - The futures price of polysilicon is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to weak demand and limited capacity contraction [18]. - The soda ash market's rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3136 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.255%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 60684 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.597429 million lots, an increase of 17388 lots. The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: This week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. The overall terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3285 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.121%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 104293 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.229562 million lots, an increase of 31165 lots. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of hot - rolled coils has significantly declined, the apparent demand has weakened slightly, the inventory has continued to fall, but the inventory pressure is still relatively prominent. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 779.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The position changed by - 317 lots to 553,700 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 920,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.78 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period decreased month - on - month. The daily average pig iron production continued to decline. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range [5]. Ferrous Alloys (Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese - Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 24, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM603) maintained an oscillation, closing up 0.17% at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures basis, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to cost - push from manganese ore and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5656 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Due to increasing production losses, some enterprises have shut down or switched production, leading to a supply decline and a certain rebound in the futures price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to supply contraction due to losses and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) was 8860 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.91% (+80). The weighted contract position changed by - 2859 lots to 398,154 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, both with no change. The basis of the main contract was 340 yuan/ton for 553 and - 10 yuan/ton for 421 [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in the short term. The weekly production decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2605) was 58300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.56% (- 925). The weighted contract position changed by - 12830 lots to 210,746 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were stable, with a basis of - 5950 yuan/ton for the main contract. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has introduced position limits and added delivery warehouses [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon production in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is difficult to relieve before the Spring Festival. The futures price is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton, up 1.95% (+20). The large - plate price in North China was 1020 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 28192 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 31578 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand recovery is still weak, and the market is in a supply - demand loosening pattern. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton, up 0.77% (+9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 13051 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 14971 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is weak, the factory inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is low, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. Glass prices are oscillating upward with increased production line maintenance, while soda ash prices are oscillating narrowly. The sentiment of waiting and seeing is growing for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese, and their alloy prices are consolidating [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is contracting due to cold - repairs in some production lines in late December, but the supply contraction is insufficient, the rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is still an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory also suppresses prices. For soda ash, although production has declined, it is still at a relatively high level, and with new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand [1]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The cost support has weakened. For ferrosilicon, production decreased significantly last week, inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Futures oscillated upward yesterday, while the market transaction center of spot goods moved downward, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand. Some production lines are expected to undergo cold - repairs in late December, leading to a contraction in glass supply [1]. - Soda Ash: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, mainly purchasing for rigid demand [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Production is oscillating at a high level, the supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to glass cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1]. - Soda Ash: Production has declined but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. With new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand situations [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and spot prices were consolidating at a high level. Steel tenders are ongoing, with prices in the northern market ranging from 5,520 - 5,570 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5,620 - 5,670 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Futures maintained narrow - range oscillations yesterday. Steel tenders are imminent, and spot prices are stable. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. Port manganese ore inventories continue to rise, and the total manganese element inventory has slightly increased, weakening the cost support. Attention should be paid to cost support and production changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production decreased significantly last week as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to cope with declining demand. Inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - end changes, and regional policies [3]. Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4]