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黑色板块日报-20250902
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 06:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, the focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline during the peak season, but concerns remain due to the real - estate market's slow recovery. Technically, both rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the Bollinger Bands' lower support, possibly opening a downward space [2]. - For the iron ore market, although the iron ore trend is the strongest among the black series due to potential growth in steel mill's molten iron production after the parade, the upward space is limited as the molten iron output is already high and terminal demand is not optimistic. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season. Technically, the 01 contract shows a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Focus**: The market is now focused on verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonal patterns suggest that demand should rise and inventory fall during the peak season, but the real - estate market's slow recovery may lead to lower - than - expected demand [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production increased, apparent demand slightly rose, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week. Total production of the five major varieties increased, total inventory rose, and apparent demand also increased. After the parade, production is expected to further increase [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, potentially opening a downward space [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short positions can be held [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - Rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous day and 23 yuan (-0.73%) from last week [3]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points from last week [3]. -全国建材钢厂螺纹钢产量 was 220.56 tons, up 5.91 tons (2.75%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. After the parade, there is potential for an increase in molten iron production, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract oscillates around the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily K - line, with the overall Bollinger Bands' opening narrowing. It has a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - 麦克粉(青岛港) was priced at 750 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan (-2.09%) from the previous day and the same from last week [4]. - 澳大利亚铁矿石发货量 was 1640.9 tons, down 78.1 tons (-4.54%) from last week [4]. - 北方六港到货量合计 was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons (12.82%) from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From August 25th to 31st, 2025, the total iron ore arrival at 45 ports in China was 2526.0 tons, a 132.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The arrival at the six northern ports was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons [6]. - As of the week ending August 31st, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 tons, a 241.0 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 tons, up 141.7 tons [7]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan area plan to stop production on September 2nd and resume on September 4th. The total approved production capacity of the affected mines is 790 tons, with an estimated impact on daily raw coal production of about 2.52 tons [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on September 1st after a 5 - day shutdown. The approved production capacity of this mine is 240 tons, and the total affected raw coal production during the shutdown was 4 tons [8].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250902
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:57
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, black commodities declined significantly, with iron ore and coking coal showing signs of catch - up decline. In August, steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the supply - demand gap widened, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The rebar market weakened first, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened. - Entering September - October, there is an expectation of seasonal strengthening in demand. If the apparent demand recovers, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and inventory accumulation will slow down. However, high production levels still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. - Currently, steel prices have fallen from their highs. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have dropped to around 3100 yuan/ton and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the profit per ton of steel has declined significantly. - In terms of operations, the space for unilateral short - selling is limited. One can sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the significant contraction of steel mill profits and the expected reduction in coking coal production, one can consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global shipment volume of iron ore has increased significantly month - on - month to a high for the year, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume will continue to increase gradually in the short term. - During the military parade in Tangshan, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from its high but remained at around 2.4 million tons per day. The impact of production restrictions this week will be reflected in molten iron output. - In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the outbound shipment volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity iron ore inventory decreased month - on - month. - After the military parade, molten iron output will decline slightly from its high, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a significant increase in the fundamentals. Since steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, molten iron output will remain at a high level in September. - On the 28th, the work plan for stabilizing growth in the steel industry was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume. The demand during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period is questionable. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Coke futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. After the spot price increase, it has temporarily stabilized, and the port trade quotation has slightly declined following the futures. - On the supply side, after the price increase was implemented, coking profits improved, but due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places, coking enterprise operations decreased slightly. - On the demand side, the molten iron output from blast furnaces has declined from its high. This week, molten iron output may continue to decline, but the impact is limited due to the short duration. - In terms of inventory, coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all seen slight inventory increases. The overall inventory is at a medium level. - The steel industry's work plan for stabilizing growth is negative for coke demand. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotation is running weakly. - On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, coal mine operations have decreased slightly month - on - month, sales have slowed down, and some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal has fallen following the futures, and downstream users are cautious about restocking. - On the demand side, due to production restrictions on Tangshan steel and coking in Shandong and Henan before the military parade, coking operations have decreased slightly, and the molten iron output from downstream blast furnaces has declined slightly from its high. This week, operations may continue to decline. - In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and borders have seen slight inventory increases, while coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills have seen slight inventory decreases. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. - The production restrictions caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi are not enough to reverse the downward trend of the spot price. The coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and futures contracts have all declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3270 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3208 yuan/ton to 3165 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3347 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 3173 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 22 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 65,000 tons to 8.846 million tons, an increase of 0.7%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace output increased by 15,000 tons to 313,000 tons, an increase of 5.0%, and the converter output increased by 44,000 tons to 1.893 million tons, an increase of 2.4%. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased by 164,000 tons to 6.234 million tons, an increase of 2.7%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 3.655 million tons, an increase of 1.1%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 268,000 tons to 14.679 million tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.6 to 8.9, an increase of 6.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 48,000 tons to 8.578 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 94,000 tons to 2.042 million tons, an increase of 4.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.207 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 19.8 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 19.0 to - 58.5, a decrease of 48.1% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port have decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0%. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Jinshi 62% Fe index have also slightly decreased [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 1.327 million tons to 25.26 million tons, an increase of 5.5%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.568 million tons, an increase of 7.3%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.315 million tons to 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.6 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average outbound shipment volume at 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 71,000 tons to 318,600 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.108 million tons to 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.526 million tons to 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory decreased by 357,000 tons to 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58,300 tons to 90.072 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coke products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coke decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1467 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%, and the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 tons to 64.5 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 11,000 tons to 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 0.14%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 9,000 tons to 653,000 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 5,000 tons to 6.101 million tons, an increase of 0.1% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The estimated supply - demand gap of coke decreased by 13,000 tons to - 57,000 tons, a decrease of 22.4% [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coking coal products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coking coal decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 943 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.4%, and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.8% [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines remained unchanged at 860,500 tons, and the clean coal output increased by 18,000 tons to 444,500 tons, an increase of 0.4% [5]. Demand - The coke output (weekly) decreased, which affected the demand for coking coal [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9,000 tons to 116,700 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 51,000 tons to 9.613 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% [5].
想卡中国脖子,结果特朗普失算,澳大利亚成了大赢家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 04:17
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Australia has emerged as a significant beneficiary of the US-China trade war, contrary to expectations that either the US or China would gain the most [1][8]. - The trade war began in March 2018 when the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a series of retaliatory measures from China, which resulted in a loss of price advantage for Chinese products in the US market [3][5]. - Australia, being a major exporter of iron ore and coal, capitalized on the gap left by the US tariffs on Chinese goods, as its products faced lower tariffs in the US market, thus gaining a competitive edge [5][6]. Group 2 - The diplomatic thaw between Australia and China, particularly after the meeting between leaders in November 2022, has led to a significant increase in bilateral trade, with trade volume surpassing 300 billion AUD and creating substantial economic benefits for Australian households and employment [5][6]. - Australia's strategy of balancing economic reliance on China while maintaining security ties with the US presents a precarious situation, as it risks potential backlash if geopolitical tensions escalate [6][8]. - The sustainability of Australia's gains from the US-China trade war is uncertain, as shifts in global supply chains and the potential for changing demand dynamics could impact its current advantages [6][8].
铁矿石早报-20250902
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 04:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 762, down 14 daily and 14 weekly; PB powder is 765, down 14 daily and 15 weekly; Mac powder is 750, down 16 daily and 16 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 738, down 12 daily and 14 weekly; Mixed powder is 703, down 15 daily and 10 weekly; Super special powder is 663, down 10 daily and 5 weekly; Carajás powder is 873, down 18 daily and 14 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder is 802, down 14 daily and 10 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 770, down 14 daily and 18 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 775, down 14 daily and 18 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is 885, down 18 daily and 5 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 727, down 12 daily and 14 weekly; Karara concentrate powder is 885, down 18 daily and 5 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 735, down 14 daily and 15 weekly; KUMBA powder is 824, down 14 daily and 15 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 608, down 10 daily and 5 weekly; Atlas powder is 698, down 15 daily and 10 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 982, down 7 daily and 7 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is 766.0, down 21.5 daily and 21.0 weekly; i2605 is 743.0, down 20.5 daily and 20.0 weekly; i2509 is 801.5, down 1.5 daily and 5.0 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 102.52, down 0.47 daily and up 2.68 weekly; FE05 is 100.09, down 0.54 daily and up 2.54 weekly; FE09 is 103.50, down 0.70 daily and up 2.91 weekly [1].
首席点评:金银涨势持续
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 02:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职,几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].
铁矿:吨钢利润收缩,矿价承压
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 12:00
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints In August, the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore ran smoothly, with port inventories showing a continuous downward trend and prices remaining relatively stable. However, the supply pressure increased as the current shipment reached a new high for the year, with significant increases in Brazil and non - mainstream mines, and obvious rebounds in arrivals. On the demand side, the molten iron output continued to decline month - on - month, and the northern production restrictions at the end of the month would cause periodic disturbances to demand, weakening the supply - demand situation. In terms of valuation, after the finished product prices fell, the spot and futures profits shrank significantly, causing price pressure adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support around $90, and cautious operations are recommended [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: In August, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with monthly increases ranging from 12 - 30 yuan. As of August 29, the Platts 62% index was at $103.6, up $4.55 month - on - month, equivalent to about 860 yuan in RMB. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore was at par with the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory was 143.88 million tons, a decrease of 560,000 tons from the previous period, 12.22 million tons from the beginning of the year, and 16.91 million tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may increase slightly in the next period [6]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume in this period was 3.5568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 241,000 tons. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.8081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 115,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.8115 million tons, a decrease of 69,500 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4504 million tons, a decrease of 207,800 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 996,600 tons, an increase of 185,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills in this period was 240,130 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 6,200 tons per day. There were 4 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace shutdown and restart plan, the molten iron output may continue to decline in the next period [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: As of August 29, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal was PB powder [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period**: As of August 29, the spread between iron ore 09 and 01 contracts was 15.5 (-3.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **High - Low Grade Price Difference**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **Premium Index**: As of August 28, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1835 (+0.0025), and that for 65% pellets was 16.4 (+0.4) [26]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: The content presents the inventory trends and premium (discount) situations of various iron ore brands in 15 ports [29]. - **Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, the imported sintered fine ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills was 1.206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%, and the domestic sintered fine ore inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.94% [32]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption**: As of August 29, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9.0072 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%, and the daily consumption was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [35]. - **Port Inventory, Berthing**: The content shows the trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, and inventories of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores in 45 ports [38]. - **Port Inventory - By Ore Type**: As of August 29, the imported port lump ore inventory was 1.654 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%; the pellet ore inventory was 283,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%; the iron concentrate inventory was 1.113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; and the coarse powder inventory was 10.713 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20% [41]. - **Siltage**: The content presents the historical siltage volume data from 2020 - 2025 [44]. - **Iron Ore Floating Quantity**: The content shows the floating quantity trends of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: The content presents the import quantity trends of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [50][51][57]. - **Australia's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Australia's shipment to China was 1.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53%, and the total shipment was 1.812 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69% [60]. - **Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Brazil's shipment to the world was 997,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.78% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: As of August 29, the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 2.112 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Among them, Vale's shipment volume increased significantly, while Rio Tinto's decreased [66]. - **Iron Ore Arrival**: As of August 29, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, and the arrival volume at northern ports was 1.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% [73]. - **Freight**: The content shows the historical freight trends from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: As of August 29, the iron concentrate output of mines was 76,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%, and the inventory was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [77]. - **Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption & Steel Mill Capacity Utilization**: As of August 29, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%, and the average daily molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [79]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the daily pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [84]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The content shows the pig iron production trends of the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China [87]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [92].
铁矿石早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 04:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 776, down 1 from the previous day and up 11 for the week; PB powder price is 779, down 2 from the previous day and up 12 for the week; Macfarlane powder price is 766, down 1 from the previous day and up 13 for the week; Jinbuba powder price is 750, down 2 from the previous day and up 10 for the week; Mixed powder price is 718, unchanged from the previous day and up 18 for the week; Super special powder price is 673, unchanged from the previous day and up 22 for the week; Carajás powder price is 891, unchanged from the previous day and up 18 for the week [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore price is 816, down 2 from the previous day and up 6 for the week; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 784, down 5 from the previous day and up 9 for the week; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 789, down 5 from the previous day and up 9 for the week [1] - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 903, up 4 from the previous day and up 25 for the week; 61% Indian powder price is 739, down 2 from the previous day and up 10 for the week; Karara concentrate powder price is 903, up 4 from the previous day and up 25 for the week; Roy Hill powder price is 749, down 2 from the previous day and up 12 for the week; KUMBA powder price is 838, down 2 from the previous day and up 12 for the week; 57% Indian powder price is 618, unchanged from the previous day and up 22 for the week; Atlas powder price is 713, unchanged from the previous day and up 18 for the week; Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 989, up 3 from the previous day and up 12 for the week [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 787.5, down 3.0 from the previous day and up 17.5 for the week; i2605 contract price is 763.5, down 2.0 from the previous day and up 16.0 for the week; i2509 contract price is 803.0, down 8.0 from the previous day and up 14.0 for the week [1] - **FE Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 102.99, up 1.40 from the previous day and up 2.47 for the week; FE05 contract price is 100.63, up 1.43 from the previous day and up 2.42 for the week; FE09 contract price is 104.20, up 1.70 from the previous day and up 3.03 for the week [1] Price Spreads - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: For i2601, the inter - monthly spread is 15.5, with a value of 37.0, up 0.8 from the previous day and down 4.3 for the week; for i2605, the inter - monthly spread is 24.0, with a value of 61.0, down 0.2 from the previous day and down 2.8 for the week; for i2509, the inter - monthly spread is - 39.5, with a value of 21.5, up 5.8 from the previous day and down 0.8 for the week [1] - **Basis/Internal - External Price Spreads**: Not detailed in a summarized way, but data is presented in the document [1] - **Premium**: U - ball/pellet premium and PB block/block premium data is presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [1]
中美关税战“意外”转折?最大赢家浮出水面,美国订单竟被盟友截胡?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 04:02
中美关税战在历经三轮艰难谈判后,如今两国实际上进入了"休战"阶段。在这场没有硝烟的战争中,美国似乎并未捞到什么好处,反倒是另一个国家悄然崛 起,成了最大赢家。特朗普怎么也没想到,原本属于美国的中国订单,竟被自家"盟友"抢走了。 最近,澳大利亚总理在公开场合对中国大加赞赏,称中国取消了对澳大利亚的反制措施和贸易壁垒,中澳贸易迎来了新的春天。从这一系列举动不难看出, 这个"受益"国家已经十分明显了。 中美关税战"意外"转折?最大赢家浮出水面,美国订单竟被盟友截胡? 特朗普:关税战里"栽了跟头" 2025年4月,特朗普再次入主白宫后,对华关税政策愈发激进。美国对华关税总额一度飙升至104%,紧接着第二天,又把额外关税提升到145%。这种近乎 疯狂的"极限施压",目的就是想迫使中国做出让步。然而,中国的反应迅速且强硬,在短时间内就将关税反制力度提升至125%,用实际行动表明了"奉陪到 底"的决心。 贝森特会有这样的感慨并不奇怪。长期以来,美国在对其他国家实施经济打压,尤其是关税施压时,几乎是一路畅通。就拿欧盟来说,面对美国的关税政 策,欧盟总是选择低调应对,通过冗长的谈判来拖延时间,最终还是不得不妥协让步。越南的态度 ...
预计9月铁矿期价将震荡为主
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 03:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.55%. The iron ore spot has been fluctuating recently. Last week, global shipments declined slightly, and port inventories decreased marginally. Due to blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan and sintering machine production restrictions in Shandong, demand decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore will maintain a fluctuating trend with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The supply is stable. Blast furnace maintenance in steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas is clear, and other regional steel enterprises are also undergoing maintenance. Next week, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by over 40,000 tons, but the impact time is limited. After next week, iron ore demand will return to a high level, and port inventory accumulation is not obvious. There is a multi - empty game in downstream steel, but the medium - and long - term macro narrative is still upward. Attention should continue to be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5][35]. - According to Mysteel, the average price of iron ore in August was $101.2 per ton. The decline in iron ore supply is greater than that in demand. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly to 33.158 million tons month - on - month, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.92 million tons this year. On the demand side, hot metal production declined slightly and remained at a medium - high level. In terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased by 561,800 tons month - on - month and is currently at 144 million tons. In August, with the decline in market sentiment, the black sector generally fluctuated and corrected, and iron ore fluctuated. In September, the black sector enters the peak season. The recovery of downstream demand may support the black sector to stabilize and rebound, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Disk Analysis - **Futures Price**: In August 2025, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.55% [10] 2. Important Market Information - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, aiming to promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities, and improve the real - estate development model [17]. - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level [17]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of July 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 104.62 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $91.41 per ton, a decrease of $1.47 per ton from the previous month [22]. - As of June 2025, the iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 71.156 million tons, an increase of 2.908 million tons from the previous month, and that from Brazil was 27.158 million tons, a decrease of 889,000 tons from the first half of the month [25]. 4. Demand - side Situation - Last week, the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 192,400 tons year - on - year [29]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Recently, the iron ore spot has been fluctuating. Last week, global shipments declined slightly, and port inventories decreased marginally. Due to blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan and sintering machine production restrictions in Shandong, demand decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore will maintain a fluctuating trend with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The supply is stable. Blast furnace maintenance in steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas is clear, and other regional steel enterprises are also undergoing maintenance. Next week, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by over 40,000 tons, but the impact time is limited. After next week, iron ore demand will return to a high level, and port inventory accumulation is not obvious. There is a multi - empty game in downstream steel, but the medium - and long - term macro narrative is still upward. Attention should continue to be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5][35]. - According to Mysteel, last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 821,800 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1864 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 98, an increase of 6. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.8802 million tons, a decrease of 561,800 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3414 million tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 61.3031 million tons, a decrease of 1.2872 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.2676 million tons, an increase of 598,700 tons; the inventory of traded ore was 92.2802 million tons, an increase of 146,900 tons; the inventory of coarse powder was 112.9016 million tons, an increase of 424,100 tons; the inventory of lump ore was 16.689 million tons, a decrease of 971,100 tons; the inventory of concentrate powder was 11.3859 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons; the inventory of pellets was 2.9037 million tons, a decrease of 238,100 tons. The number of ships at ports was 101, an increase of 4 [36]. 6. Market Outlook - According to Mysteel, the average price of iron ore in August was $101.2 per ton. The decline in iron ore supply is greater than that in demand. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly to 33.158 million tons month - on - month, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.92 million tons this year. On the demand side, hot metal production declined slightly and remained at a medium - high level. In terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased by 561,800 tons month - on - month and is currently at 144 million tons. In August, with the decline in market sentiment, the black sector generally fluctuated and corrected, and iron ore fluctuated. In September, the black sector enters the peak season. The recovery of downstream demand may support the black sector to stabilize and rebound, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [6][38]. 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Opportunistically sell deep out - of - the - money put options [39]
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250901
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 01:41
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 9 月 1 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行,矿价高位震荡 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行,钢厂生产趋弱,矿石需求持续下行,且钢厂利润收缩,叠加限产短期 扰动,利好效应趋弱。与此同时,国内港口到货虽回落,但海外矿商发运维持高位,按船期推算后续 澳巴矿到货仍将回升,海外矿石供应相对偏高,而内矿生产受限,矿石供应平稳运行。目前来看,铁 ...