金融期货早评 宏观：政策基调仍是积极有为 【市场资讯】1）中共中央政治局召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济 形势和经济工作，中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。2）育儿补贴是新中国成立以来首次大 范围、普惠式、直接性向群众发放的民生保障现金补贴，初步预算 900 亿元、8 月下旬申 领。3）美联储连续五次会议按兵不动，但两票委支持降息，指出经济增长放缓；鲍威尔未 就 9 月降息给指引，强调关税和通胀的不确定性，称就业市场未走弱。特朗普对进口半成 品铜等征 50%关税，但不含阴极铜和精炼铜，纽铜暴跌 20%。4）美国暂停对低价值货物的 最低限度免税待遇。5）特朗普称美国将对印度施加 25%关税及"惩罚"，指印方是俄罗斯能 源大买家。特朗普宣布与韩国达成全面贸易协议，征收 15%关税，韩国将向美国提供 3500 亿美元投资，由美国拥有和控制。特朗普签署行政命令，将对巴西征收 50%关税。6）美国 Q2 实际 GDP 年化季环比初值 3%好于预期，PCE 物价指数 2.5%。美国 7 月 ADP 就业人数增 加 10.4 万人超预期，但雇主对招聘决策趋于谨慎。欧元区二季度躲过衰退，GDP 超预期增 长 0 ...

广西贺州：抢收早稻【3】 广西贺州：抢收早稻 广西贺州：抢收早稻【5】 广西贺州：抢收早稻【2】 广西贺州：抢收早稻【4】 广西贺州：抢收早稻【6】 ...

Group 1: Emergency Response and Public Safety - The Shanghai police quickly activated an emergency response to ensure public safety and protect citizens' lives and property during Typhoon "Zhu Jie Cao" [2][3] - Over 3100 traffic police were deployed across key intersections to manage traffic and handle accidents, ensuring safe transportation during the storm [2] - A total of 454 emergency incidents related to road flooding, fallen trees, and public assistance were reported and addressed promptly by the police [3] Group 2: Agricultural Supply and Food Security - As of July 30, 89,000 acres of vegetable greenhouses and 23,000 acres of fruit greenhouses were reinforced to protect crops from the typhoon [4] - The Shanghai Vegetable Group reported that vegetable prices were approximately 20% lower than the previous year due to favorable weather conditions in major production areas [4][5] - The Shanghai Commerce Commission is actively monitoring supply chains and has implemented measures to ensure food safety and availability during the storm [5] Group 3: Power Supply and Infrastructure - The Shanghai power supply company responded quickly to power outages caused by the typhoon, restoring power to affected areas within a short time frame [7] - By 5 PM, over 90% of power network faults caused by the storm had been repaired, and the main power grid was operating smoothly [7] Group 4: Tree and Road Maintenance - A total of 3,423 personnel were mobilized to address fallen trees and road maintenance, with most incidents resolved within 30 minutes [8][9] - The city reported 437 trees had fallen due to the typhoon, and all were promptly dealt with to ensure public safety [9] Group 5: Transportation and Travel Safety - Many flights were canceled at Shanghai's two major airports, and additional staff were deployed to assist passengers with rebooking and inquiries [10] - The railway system implemented temporary speed restrictions on certain routes and conducted thorough inspections to ensure safety [10] Group 6: Insurance and Claims Processing - Insurance companies in Shanghai quickly processed claims related to vehicle damage caused by the typhoon, with some claims completed in under 30 minutes [11] - A significant number of insurance personnel were mobilized to assess damages and assist affected clients promptly [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by the better - than - expected US economy, the hawkish stance of the FOMC, and tariff developments. The dollar index is approaching 100, US bond yields are rising, and the stock and commodity markets are experiencing adjustments [2]. - In the domestic market, after the Politburo meeting and the Sino - US negotiations did not exceed expectations, the market risk preference declined. The stock market style shifted to high - dividend stocks, the commodity market sentiment cooled, and the bond market rebounded [3]. - Different commodities have different price trends. Precious metals are under pressure, copper shows a mixed trend, aluminum is oscillating, and other commodities also present various price movements based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The July statement downgraded the economic growth assessment, and Powell's hawkish remarks emphasized inflation control. The market reduced the expected number of rate cuts this year to 1 time, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped to 41%. The US Q2 GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rebounded to 3.0%, better than the expected 2.4%. Trump announced a series of tariff measures starting from August 1st, which affected market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing the consolidation of the economic recovery momentum. The market risk preference declined, and the stock, commodity, and bond markets showed corresponding adjustments [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to correct. COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce. Powell's hawkish remarks and strong economic data led to a delay in the market's expectation of the first rate cut this year, putting pressure on the prices of gold and silver. Short - term precious metals are expected to remain weak [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - Trump's tariff on imported semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivatives (excluding refined copper) caused the US copper price to plunge nearly 20%. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell remained cautious, slightly dampening market sentiment. In the industry, the second - stage pumping work at the Kamoa mine is progressing actively. It is expected that Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Fed maintained interest rates stable, and strong US economic data did not support rate - cut expectations. The domestic meeting indicated that macro - policies will maintain a growth - stabilizing orientation in the second half of the year. The aluminum market has no clear direction, and aluminum prices are expected to remain oscillating [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina spot market is structurally tight, with low delivery inventory. Supported by news of domestic delivery requirements and overseas supply disruptions, alumina is expected to maintain a relatively positive oscillating trend [10]. 3.6 Zinc - US economic data was strong, the Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the dollar strengthened. The fundamental situation of zinc remained weak, with an expected increase in refined zinc production in August and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - The reduction and resumption of production co - exist in primary and secondary lead smelters. The transportation of raw materials and products in Ningxia is affected. The supply tension has eased, and the terminal demand is differentiated. Lead prices are expected to remain oscillating in the short term [12][13]. 3.8 Tin - Strong US economic data and the Fed's unchanged interest rates led to a stronger dollar, putting pressure on tin prices. The tin market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with weak supply and demand in China. Tin prices are expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, waiting for the guidance of the US July non - farm payroll data [14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is firm. The supply is contracting, and the demand shows a mixed situation. The futures price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Policy expectations dominate the price direction. Overseas lithium ore supply is stable and abundant, and the demand is stable. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17][18]. 3.11 Nickel - Tariff disturbances continue, and the macro - level is still volatile. The shortage of nickel ore has eased, but the ore price has not significantly declined. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks drive up oil prices, but the OPEC + may increase production in September, and the fundamentals may gradually become looser. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.13 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - The Politburo meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability. The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak production and sales pattern, and supply is expected to contract in mid - August. Steel futures prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The spot market trading is average, and the market sentiment is weakly stable. The port inventory has decreased this week, and the supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [24]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the Sino - US negotiation results may weaken the export demand for new - season US soybeans. The domestic soybean procurement is insufficient in the long - term, and the supply is loose in the short - term. Rapeseed meal rebounds strongly, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The US employment data is strong, and the dollar index rises. The import of rapeseed is expected to decline, and rapeseed oil inventory decreases, leading to a compensatory rebound. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market has policy support, and there are opportunities to go long on dips. The bond market is affected by the stock - commodity market, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the hawkish stance of the Fed. Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. The black building materials market is affected by policies and demand, and prices may fluctuate. The energy and chemical market has various trends for different products based on supply - demand and cost factors. The agricultural products market also shows different trends for different products such as livestock, grains, and oils [2][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Ningde Times' net profit increased by 33.02% year - on - year. Zhongchuan Emergency will be under risk warning from August 1st [2] - **Base Ratio**: Different base ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [2] - **Trading Logic**: The policy's support for the capital market is confirmed, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [3] - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. The Sino - US economic and trade talks agreed to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [3] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1585 billion yuan [3] - **Strategy**: The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, but the stock and commodity markets may suppress the bond market in the short - term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Both domestic and foreign gold and silver prices declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 99.82 [7] - **Market Outlook**: The hawkish stance of the Fed and the strong US economic data are negative factors for precious metals [7] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.74%, and SHFE copper was affected. The inventory and basis changed [10] - **Price Outlook**: The pressure on copper prices is relieved, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [10] Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum rose slightly, and SHFE aluminum was in a volatile state. The inventory and basis changed [11] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the low inventory and weak demand [11] Zinc - **Market Quotes**: SHFE zinc index rose slightly. The inventory and basis changed [12] - **Price Outlook**: The long - term price is bearish, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's decision and market risks [12][13] Lead - **Market Quotes**: SHFE lead index fell slightly. The inventory and basis changed [14] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is tightening, and the price may strengthen if the smelter inspection expands [14] Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel changed [15] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to decline, and short positions can be held or shorted on rallies [15] Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The inventory and price of upstream tin concentrate changed [16] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures price fell. The trading limits were adjusted [18] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty, and speculators are advised to be cautious [18] Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The index rose, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory increased slightly [19] - **Price Outlook**: The over - capacity pattern may remain, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [19] Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The futures price was flat, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory decreased [20] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to terminal demand [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was flat. The inventory increased slightly [21] - **Price Outlook**: The price is under pressure due to the weak supply and demand in the off - season [21] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell. The inventory and basis changed [23] - **Price Outlook**: The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [24] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price and basis changed [25] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may be adjusted, and risk control is needed [26] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was flat. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was stable. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price and basis changed [29] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price fluctuates greatly, and speculation is not recommended. The long - term fundamentals are bearish [30][31] Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. The spot price and basis changed [33] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate with high volatility, and waiting and watching are recommended [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices fell. The supply concern decreased [37] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate downward, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [39] Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil rose, while INE crude oil fell. The inventory data changed [40] - **Price Outlook**: The price has upward momentum in the short - term but is limited by the off - season demand [41] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The basis changed [42] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and demand may weaken, and waiting and watching are recommended [42] Urea - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price was flat. The basis changed [43] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and long positions can be considered on dips [43] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened [44] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise with the cost after the inventory is reduced [44] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [46] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price may fall back [46] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [47] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the price may decline [47] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [48] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and inventory may accumulate, and long positions can be considered on dips [50] p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [51] - **Price Outlook**: The price may go down with inventory, and long positions can be considered on dips [51] Polyethylene PE - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [52] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by cost and supply, and short positions can be held [52] Polypropylene PP - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [53] - **Price Outlook**: The price may follow the crude oil trend in July [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The pig price was stable with local fluctuations [57] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise slightly today. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [57] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The egg price was stable [58] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may oscillate, and short positions can be considered after the rebound [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The US soybean price fell, and the domestic soybean meal price rose slightly [59] - **Price Outlook**: The soybean import cost may be affected by trade relations, and long positions can be considered on dips [60][61] Oils - **Market Quotes**: The domestic palm oil oscillated, and the net long positions of three major oils changed [62] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter [63] Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell [64] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase, and the price may continue to decline [65] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell [66] - **Price Outlook**: The price is bearish in the short - term due to the weak consumption and unresolved trade issues [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Central Political Bureau meeting maintained a stable tone, emphasizing the optimization of existing policies and some structural increments. The stock market is expected to remain at a relatively high risk - preference level due to the demand for a long - bull market [1]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell downplayed the expectation of a September rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the US dollar index [2]. - The July Political Bureau meeting announced limited incremental policies, and the policy risks faced by the bond market significantly decreased. There is a chance to start trying to go long [3]. - The oil market continued to rise, while the EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased [6]. - The steel price declined significantly. The Political Bureau meeting did not give further expectations on "anti - involution", causing a decline in market sentiment. The long - term impact of "anti - involution" is worthy of attention, but short - term trading is difficult, and market fluctuations remain large [5]. - The grease market continued to fluctuate. The poor rapeseed harvest in Ukraine led to an increase in the price of rapeseed oil [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3%, better than expected. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, with internal differences. Gold prices fell significantly by more than 1%. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - This year, the preliminary budget for childcare subsidies is about 90 billion yuan, and the application will be fully open by August 31. The Political Bureau meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability, and the stock market is expected to remain at a high risk - preference level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [15][16][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July. Powell downplayed the September rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar index rose significantly. It is recommended that the US dollar index will rebound in the short term [20][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed continued to hold off on rate changes, with two voting members supporting rate cuts. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3%, better than expected. Market risk preference declined slightly. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction due to economic data falling short of expectations [24][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The July Political Bureau meeting highly evaluated the economic development in the first half of the year, and the incremental policies were limited. The policy risks faced by the bond market decreased. The long - end variety spread may rise moderately. It is recommended to start trying to go long [27][28][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction in Linfen mostly continued to rise. Coke started the third round of price increases. The short - term price may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to position management [31][32][33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is rising. The US soybean产区 has good weather, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. It is recommended to view the internal and external futures prices with a volatile mindset [34][35][36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is expected to export more than 5 million tons of palm oil to India. The grease market continued to fluctuate. Rapeseed oil rose due to the poor rapeseed harvest in Ukraine. It is recommended to buy on dips [37][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized capacity governance. Steel prices declined, and market sentiment slipped. The short - term market may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious [40][41][42]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to remain in low - level volatility [43][44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port corn spot price remained stagnant. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. It is recommended to hold short positions in new crops [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The northern port steam coal price remained stable. The short - term coal price is expected to continue to fluctuate due to factors such as rainfall and environmental inspections [46][47]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest over $700 million in an iron ore project. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limits of some polysilicon futures contracts were adjusted. The spot transaction average price increased. The short - term polysilicon price is expected to run between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips [49][50][51]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal increased. The industrial silicon production may increase. The price is expected to run between 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [52][53][54]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale Indonesia plans to develop a nickel project. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The short - term raw material price is weakening, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [55][56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto expanded its lithium business in Quebec. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures decreased after position limits. It is not recommended to short too early, and long positions need to wait for safer points [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - An energy storage project using lead - carbon batteries started. The Shanghai lead futures maintained a weak and volatile pattern. In the short term, pay attention to buying on dips and manage positions well [60][62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Grupo Mexico's second - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 56% year - on - year. The Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [64][66][67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen LPG increased. The US C3 inventory increased. Pay attention to the release of the August CP [68][69]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA US commercial crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices continued to rise, supported by short - term geopolitical risks. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp varied. The futures price of pulp decreased. It is expected to follow the commodity market correction [74][75]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price was range - bound. The futures price fluctuated. It is expected to follow the commodity market correction [76][77]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price of Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical remained stable. The futures price increase declined. The short - term market may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The futures price increase declined. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies [79]. 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The proportion of West African dry bulk freight volume soared. The container freight rate price inflection point was confirmed. It is recommended to pay attention to the decline slope of the freight rate [80][82][83].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US economic data is strong, and Powell maintains a wait - and - see stance, causing the US dollar index to rise continuously and the global risk appetite to heat up. In China, the economy grew higher than expected in H1 2025, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks has extended the tariff truce period by 90 days, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index will run with a short - term upward bias, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds will experience a short - term high - level shock and correction, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black products will have greater short - term fluctuations, with short - term cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals will have a short - term shock and correction, with short - term cautious observation; energy and chemicals will have a short - term shock and rebound, with cautious long positions; precious metals will have a short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and Powell avoids guiding on a September rate cut. The US Q2 economic growth is 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%, and the July ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding the expected 75,000. The strong US economic data and Powell's stance drive the US dollar index up. Domestically, China's H1 economic growth is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed down. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and Sino - US trade talks extended the tariff truce by 90 days [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as film and television, oil and gas, and food and beverage, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. As trade agreements are reached, market risk appetite recovers, and precious metals are under pressure. The Fed maintains the interest rate, and the ADP employment report is strong, weakening the safe - haven property of precious metals. In the short term, precious metals are under pressure, but the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains. Attention should be paid to the key support levels for long - term position allocation [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot steel market rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price rose and then fell. After major macro - events, the actual demand has not improved significantly. The supply will remain high, but production restrictions may suppress it. The steel market should be treated with a short - term shock - upward bias [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures and spot prices declined. The iron - making production decreased slightly last week, and the demand growth is limited. If production restrictions are implemented in August - September, the iron - making production may decline. The supply increased slightly this week, and the port inventory increased slightly. The iron ore price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices diverged. The production enthusiasm in Inner Mongolia is high, and the production in the main producing areas of silicon iron is stable. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to be strong [7]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda ash contract was weak. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand is weak. Market concerns about capacity exit support the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed. After a disappointing meeting, the price corrected [8]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. The supply pressure increases during the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate industry is weak, and the demand is poor. The profit increased slightly. The short - term price is supported by policies, but it corrected after a disappointing meeting [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements, which is sentimentally positive for copper prices. The copper concentrate spot TC has rebounded slightly, and Comex copper inventories are at a multi - year high [10]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the aluminum price fell slightly. Fundamentally, it is weak, with domestic and LME inventories increasing. The impact of relevant policies is limited, and the price increase is expected to be limited. Wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is the off - season, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The short - term price will fluctuate, and the medium - term upside is limited [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. The prices of lithium ore and lithium carbonate products decreased. Due to policy uncertainties, short - term observation is recommended, and wait for the price to stabilize [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9800 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated greatly, and short - term observation is recommended [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. The prices of related products were stable. The production in July is expected to increase by about 10% month - on - month. There are many rumors in the market, and direct short - selling is risky [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump threatens to punish India for buying Russian oil, causing concerns about supply tightening. However, the increase in US crude oil inventories limits the price increase. The oil price will remain strong and fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has been stable recently. The support from the crude oil price has increased slightly. The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The price will follow the crude oil price, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PX**: The tight supply of PX continues, but the external price has decreased. The high profit of PX may cause downstream negative feedback. The short - term price will fluctuate, and the upside is limited [16]. - **PTA**: The trading volume of PTA is weak. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the downstream inventory has decreased, but the profit has not increased. The processing fee is low, and the price is supported by the crude oil price. Wait for the August stocking rhythm to change [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price has returned to a short - term range. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. The short - term price will fluctuate within a range [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Wait for the August peak - season stocking [17]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price was supported by coal prices but was restricted by factors such as device restart and import increase. It is expected to return to a shock range, and conservative investors should observe [17]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies, the PP price is still supported to some extent. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [18]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene futures price corrected. In the short term, it will be affected by policies. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the price is expected to decline [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean contract fell. Argentina's soybean exports exceeded expectations, and the pre - sale of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on the price [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is split. The import volume in August - September is expected to be high, and the USDA report in August may be bearish. The cost expectation of soybean meal will weaken [20]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has narrowed. The export of domestic soybean oil is expected to increase, but the domestic demand is weak. The rapeseed inventory is low, supporting the rapeseed oil price [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the decline of US soybean oil, palm oil may weaken. The domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, and the Malaysian palm oil production is increasing while the export is decreasing [21]. - **Pigs**: The pig price has fallen to a new low this year. In August, the supply may increase, and the price will be under pressure until late August. The futures price of some contracts is too high, and the basis is low, suitable for industrial selling hedging [22]. - **Corn**: The corn futures technical indicators are bearish, but there is no logical driver. The spot price is stable. There may be an oversold risk in the far - month contracts. The opening price of new - season corn is expected to be slightly optimistic [23].

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Industry Association and the China Agricultural Risk Management Research Association have jointly released a series of standards for the application of remote sensing technology in agricultural insurance, specifically for rice, wheat, corn, and cotton crops, aiming to enhance the precision of underwriting and claims assessment in agricultural insurance [1] Group 1: Remote Sensing Technology in Agricultural Insurance - The newly established standards provide a scientific and applicable framework for the use of remote sensing technology in agricultural insurance, covering operational aspects such as data acquisition and processing, underwriting verification, and disaster loss assessment [1] - The application of remote sensing technology is expected to significantly reduce labor costs while improving the accuracy of underwriting and efficiency in disaster assessment [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Benefits - The lack of industry technical standards has led to discrepancies among remote sensing companies in data source selection, interpretation techniques, and accuracy evaluation, which has hindered the large-scale application of remote sensing technology [1] - The implementation of these standards is anticipated to enhance compliance in agricultural insurance operations, combat insurance fraud, and improve farmers' risk management capabilities, ultimately promoting increased income for farmers and greater efficiency in agriculture [1]

2025.07. 31 本文字数：369，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协 议。根据协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于由美方拥有并控制的投资项目。此外，韩国还 将采购价值1000亿美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品，并承诺再投资一笔大额资金，用于其本国投 资目的。该金额将在韩国总统李在明两周后访美举行双边会谈时公布。 特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致， 美国将对韩国征收15%的关税 。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩 国将对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 多个"新大学"首年招生分数线直超985高校，原因何在 ...

Group 1: Tariff Announcements - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on South Korean goods and a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1 [1][2] - Brazil will face a 40% tariff, raising the total tariff to 50% on certain products [2] - A 50% tariff will be applied to various semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [3] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - South Korea will invest $350 billion in U.S. controlled projects and purchase $100 billion worth of LNG or other energy products [1] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and India is significant, with U.S.-India trade estimated at $128.8 billion for 2024 and India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion [2] - Following the tariff announcements, copper prices in New York fell nearly 20% [4]