Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The index is expected to continue its outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and increased merger activities [1] - The preference order for the Chinese basic materials industry in 2026 is copper/gold, aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [3] Company Performance - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][4] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper/gold [4] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [4] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [5] Supply Chain Dynamics - Ongoing supply disruptions include maintenance at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine, which is expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [2] - The demand growth for basic metals in China is projected to stabilize, with copper and aluminum demand growth rates expected at 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation New Materials has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 7.31% and a recent trading volume indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 15, the stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 4.55 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.02 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.60% [1] - The stock has experienced a 3.88% increase over the last five trading days, an 8.59% increase over the last 20 days, and a 4.36% increase over the last 60 days [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 587.16 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.09 billion CNY, down 10.28% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 17.96 billion CNY, with 8.31 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of December 31, the number of shareholders increased to 63,700, a rise of 0.44%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 0.44% to 58,986 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include the Southern CSI 500 ETF, which holds 22.73 million shares as a new shareholder [3] Group 4: Business Overview - Innovation New Materials, established on June 7, 1996, and listed on November 29, 2001, specializes in the research, development, and production of aluminum alloys and related products [2] - The company's revenue composition includes 61.01% from bars, 23.66% from aluminum rods and cables, 7.18% from sheets and foils, 5.82% from profiles, and 2.16% from other sources [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance with significant increases in both revenue and net profit for the year, indicating strong operational growth and investor interest [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 15, Yun Aluminum's stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 33.35 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 8.22 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.72%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 115.66 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 1.55%, with a 0.63% increase over the last five trading days, a 25.56% increase over the last 20 days, and a 53.83% increase over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yun Aluminum achieved a revenue of 44.07 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.40 billion CNY, which is a 15.14% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 6.07 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.88 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yun Aluminum was 79,100, a decrease of 8.51% from the previous period, with an average of 43,857 circulating shares per shareholder, which is an increase of 9.30% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 269 million shares, an increase of 72.09 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Ding Sheng New Materials has shown significant stock performance and financial growth, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2] - As of January 15, Ding Sheng New Materials' stock price increased by 6.06% since the beginning of the year, with a recent drop of 2.21% over the last five trading days, but a substantial rise of 31.68% over the last 20 days and 44.46% over the last 60 days [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of aluminum foil, with its main business revenue composition being 85.57% from aluminum foil products, 12.80% from aluminum plates and strips, and 1.64% from other sources [1] Group 2 - As of December 20, the number of shareholders for Ding Sheng New Materials decreased by 16.89% to 42,800, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 20.33% to 21,711 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Ding Sheng New Materials achieved an operating revenue of 19.604 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 307 million yuan, up 36.61% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Ding Sheng New Materials has distributed a total of 949 million yuan in dividends, with 720 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflow. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand under high - price conditions, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expected trading, with increased price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, and the strong expectation can support the current high price [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventories with a slight reduction. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, there are risks of large - scale inventory accumulation in the overseas LME in the long - term [13] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1252, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 27212. The spot import profit increased by 191.03, and the three - month import profit increased by 282.64 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The recent increase in copper prices is due to the potential US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflow. Future performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 370, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 370, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 380. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the import alumina price remained unchanged. The Shanghai aluminum social inventory had no change record, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Situation**: The spot and futures prices are affected by expected trading. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected, with poor automobile terminal sales and good short - term demand from photovoltaic installations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of zinc remained at 70, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 240, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 270, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 260. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC of zinc is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally normal overseas [5] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage in the monthly spread [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 55.0, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the Jinchuan premium decreased by 150. The LME inventory increased by 510, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 702 [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 150. The inventory is at a high level with a slight reduction [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of lead decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3725, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 3200 [12] - **Market Situation**: Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot import profit decreased by 1317.95, the spot export profit decreased by 2293.37, and the tin position increased by 11997. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [12] - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 120, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 120, the 553 East China basis decreased by 120, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [16] - **Market Situation**: Supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the main - contract basis increased by 8540, the near - month contract basis increased by 3500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 260 [19] - **Market Situation**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1 will significantly impact China's high-carbon industries, particularly steel and aluminum exports to the EU, which account for approximately 3.5% of China's total exports to the EU [2][3]. Group 1: Short-term Impact - The initial pressure from CBAM is manageable, with a starting carbon cost of only 2.5%, allowing Chinese companies to maintain competitive pricing in the short term [4]. - The default emission values set by the EU for Chinese products are generally higher than the global average, creating an unfair barrier for Chinese exporters [4]. - The steel industry, in particular, may face increased export tariffs and competitive pressure, especially for companies that do not conduct their own carbon assessments [3][4]. Group 2: Compliance and Adaptation - Chinese exporters need to shift from relying on default values for carbon reporting to establishing their own carbon monitoring and reporting systems [5][6]. - Over 90% of Chinese companies used global average default values during the trial phase, which will lead to increased carbon costs once country-specific values are published [5]. - Companies are encouraged to engage with third-party certification bodies to enhance the credibility of their carbon data and compliance [6]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy - The transition to low-carbon operations should be a key focus for companies aiming to expand in international markets, with an emphasis on developing green products and processes [8]. - The CBAM will expand to include around 180 downstream products by 2028, necessitating a comprehensive approach to carbon footprint management across the entire supply chain [8]. - Companies should evaluate potential partners based on their carbon data transparency and low-carbon transition plans to ensure compliance and competitiveness in the future [8]. Group 4: External Environment and Policy - The Chinese government advocates for fair trade practices and is prepared to take necessary measures against any unfair trade restrictions imposed by the EU [9]. - There is a call for improvements in the domestic carbon market, including the introduction of auction mechanisms and negotiations with the EU for recognition of China's carbon pricing [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that resource commodities continue to face opportunities, with strategic value enhancement due to factors such as global liquidity boosting prices and increasing demand from technology sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing [1] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, geopolitical disturbances are elevating the strategic importance of key minerals, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of commodity prices [1] - For precious metals, factors like monetary easing, expanding credit cracks in the US dollar, and ongoing high debt levels are contributing to a situation where gold prices are likely to rise but face challenges in declining [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The constituent stocks of the index have a large average market capitalization, providing good liquidity and representativeness, with a balanced industry distribution [1]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds have generally increased, with changes ranging from 0 BP to 8 BP, leading to a significant increase in credit bond issuance volume due to a low base effect [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has increased, while the net financing for targeted tools has decreased; corporate bonds have a negative net financing amount, while other types have positive net financing [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts for credit bonds, with most types experiencing growth [2] - Credit spreads have narrowed for most mid-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, as credit bonds continue to perform better than interest rate bonds [2] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are insufficient, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [2] Company Research: WuXi AppTec (药明康德) - WuXi AppTec expects to achieve a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.84%, with continuous operating business revenue expected to grow by approximately 21.40% [6][7] - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit is projected to be around 14.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 41.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach approximately 19.151 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 102.65% [6][7] - The strong growth is attributed to the advantages of the CRDMO model, with a focus on integrated services and continuous optimization of production processes [7] - The company plans to focus on its CRDMO business model and has sold parts of its equity in joint ventures, contributing to its profit growth [7] Industry Research: Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to maintain production levels due to acceptable profit margins, although demand is in a seasonal decline [13] - Copper prices are influenced by market sentiment and resource competition, with potential for high volatility [13] - Aluminum prices are supported by high copper prices and strategic resource concerns, while supply remains ample [13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. employment data [13] - The rare earth market is anticipated to strengthen due to export control measures and strategic importance [14]

Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoints - On the 13th, the night session of Shanghai Aluminum continued to rise to the 25,000 mark and then declined for adjustment. The closing price at the end of the session dropped 0.85% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 20,000 lots to around 770,000 lots. The high aluminum price suppressed downstream procurement demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared with the previous trading day. The discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were -60, -220, and -45 respectively. [7] - In the short term, the overall supply of aluminum increased slightly. New projects in China and Indonesia continued to ramp up production, driving up the daily average output. Although the shutdown of an aluminum plant in Mozambique was finalized, it would still operate at full capacity in the first quarter, and the market had basically digested this news. [7] - High aluminum prices suppressed terminal demand. Downstream enterprises generally adopted strategies of delaying procurement and consuming inventories, and the weekly inventory quickly accumulated and exceeded the 700,000-ton mark. [7] - The operation logic of the aluminum market was still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. As copper and gold prices rose significantly, funds continued to buy relatively undervalued resource products, which supported the aluminum price to be more likely to rise than to fall. [7] Industry News - 19 air-conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation work of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards, triggering market discussions. Due to the continuous rise in copper prices, the price difference between copper and aluminum was about three times. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum household air-conditioning products as soon as 2026, while others had no such plan. [10] - Lizhong Group said that its production and operation had been stable in recent years, and the overall capacity utilization rate had gradually increased. The second phase of the 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheel project in its Mexican factory, with a capacity of 1.8 million, had achieved initial production. The third aluminum alloy wheel factory in Thailand, with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast-rotated aluminum alloy wheels, was expected to be put into production next year. The high-performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, Thailand, and other places would be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. [10][11] - India's state-owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) planned to start the mining of the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support the expansion of its integrated aluminum business. It had awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increase in mining capacity, Nalco was expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which would increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons. [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - The medium - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift of the bottom center. Short - term price strength is due to the risk of structural imbalance in global inventories and supply concerns from the Venezuela event. However, real - end demand is weak at high prices [2]. Zinc - In the context of geopolitical tensions, the non - ferrous metal sector moves upward in resonance. The zinc price is supported by tight ore supply but may face pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with support around 23800 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, with the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak fundamentals. The aluminum price is driven by macro and policy expectations but faces pressure from supply growth and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to be high - level and widely volatile [7]. Tin - The supply of tin may increase with the potential resumption of mines in Myanmar, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to hold previously bought call options [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to be low - level and volatile, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices are falling. The market will continue to accumulate inventory in January. The price may be supported at 48000 - 50000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market fluctuates at a high level. Cost is the main driving factor, but the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [14]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate futures are rising. The supply side has a slight increase expectation, and downstream demand has some resilience. The market sentiment is strong, but short - term liquidity and regulatory risks should be noted [16]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a wide - range shock. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market. Short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile [18]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a narrow - range shock. It is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand in the off - season. Short - term price is expected to adjust in a shock pattern [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 102510 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous value. The refined - scrap spread is 5042 yuan/ton, down 7.96% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month. Global visible inventories are at a high level, but 50% are in the US and difficult to flow to non - US regions [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24330 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The refined zinc output in December was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic zinc mine production has declined for two consecutive months, and the zinc ore TC is at a low level. The downstream start - up rate and orders are weak [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24300 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, and the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons. The inventory is accumulating [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 380200 yuan/ton, up 3.16%. The import volume of tin ore in November increased significantly month - on - month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may accelerate, and demand shows regional differences [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is at 8835 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be weak. The production may decrease by 1 - 2 million tons, and demand may decline by about 1 million tons [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is below 50000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline, and the market will continue to accumulate inventory [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM ADC12 is 23950 yuan/ton. The cost is the main driving factor, but the supply and demand are weak [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in December was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [14]. Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159500 yuan/ton, up 4.93%. The supply side has a slight increase, and downstream demand has some resilience [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate was 99200 tons, and the demand was 130118 tons. The inventory is changing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 145200 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 30.08% [18]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel is stable. The price is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50% month - on - month, and the social inventory is decreasing [20].