| | 操作评级 | 2025年08月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ★☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★★★ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约价格增仓下跌，价格疲弱。今日中储粮网计划竞价销售4.58万吨，实际成交2.5万吨，成交率为54.8%，成交 均价为4119.3元/吨。短期国产大豆的竞价拍卖给市场带来供应压力。而需求端表现偏弱、因此价格被打压。国产大豆跟进口大 豆价差从低位回升。进口大豆方面美国农业部报告里面虽然大幅上调单产创历 ...

| | 未来鸡蛋需求将进入需求旺季，蛋价存在季节性反弹的可能，考虑到供给端的压 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 力，高点大概率低于去年同期。期货延续下行，期货贴水，市场情绪偏空。关注 | | | | 终端需求变化对现货价格的影响，期货盘面关注市场情绪变化。 | | | | 周四，生猪期货震荡，主力 2511 合约日收跌 0.07%，报收 13765 元/吨。现货方 | | | | 面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 13.78 元/公斤，环比持平，基准交割 | | | | 地河南市场生猪均价 13.76 元/公斤，环比跌 0.12 元/公斤，四川平，广东涨，辽 | | | | 宁、山东跌。北方地区出栏量增加，下游有压价空间，猪价下滑；华南市场需求 | | | 生猪 | | 震荡 | | | 恢复，养殖端拉涨，西南局部地区跟涨，支撑南方猪价主线涨。根据季节性规律， | | | | 后市随着各地高位天气消退，需求恢复，叠加反内卷主基调，猪价存在支撑。但 | | | | 供给端充裕，仍对猪价施压。对猪价维持震荡观点，但短期，期货延续弱势震荡。 | | | | 后期持续关注政策及市场情绪变 ...

油料日报 | 2025-08-22 大豆市场等待需求，花生新旧转换运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3999.00元/吨，较前日变化-37.00元/吨，幅度-0.92%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+261，较前日变化+37，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆价格暂稳，因市场流通库存不多，部分粮贸企业竞拍国储库资源出售，成交不 快。目前新豆生长情况良好，市场多等待新豆上市，对于产量多持丰产预期。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.13元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.13元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较前一日平； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场 国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒 塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较前一日平。 昨日豆一期货继续下探。东北产区贸易商观望情绪进一步升温，采 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-22 近期市场资讯，据印度有关机构消息，印度全国播种进度落后于去年同期。截至8月15日，印度新年度棉花播种面 积达1080万公顷（约16200万亩），较去年同期1110万公顷（约16650万亩）减少约2.7%。据马托格罗索州农业经济 学研究所(IMEA)数据显示，截至8月15日，该州采摘进度环比提升13个百分点至40.0%，同比（57.0%）落后17.0 个百分点。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA调减全球棉花产量及期末库存，其中美棉产量大幅下调，全球供需格局 直接由偏松转为了偏紧，报告利多棉价，发布之后美棉主力应声上涨。不过目前来看美棉产区天气并未出现明显 异常，其他主产国今年供应端天气的叙事性也不足，市场对偏紧格局仍存怀疑，此次产量调减或无法对棉价形成 有利支撑，ICE美棉冲高后又小幅回落维持震荡态势，预计暂难突破震荡区间。国内方面，郑棉在外盘上涨带动下 本周连续震荡上行。7月棉花商业库存去库仍较快，三季度进口量预计维持低位，而滑准税配额迟迟不发，供应趋 紧预期短期对棉价形成较强支撑。不过当前下游需求仍偏弱，纱厂仍处于降开机和累库的过程中，棉价上方压力 仍 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：油脂供应充足，豆油价格继续低开低走。主要原因在于市场 尚未证实的消息称可能会有600万吨大豆抛储并进口美豆轮换（消 息尚未证实）。中美、中加贸易关系依旧严峻，市场对于四季度油 籽供应存在担忧。目前豆油市场处于"弱现实+强预期"格局，弱 现实主要表现为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans Meal**: Short - term adjustment [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans Meal**: With neutral climate expectations and smooth US soybean planting weather, China's soybean and beans meal are in the inventory accumulation stage. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report adjusted the final soybean production and ending stocks downward. Beans meal is under pressure for adjustment, and short - long opportunities after adjustment can be considered in the next one to two weeks [1][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of reduced yield in Canada. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with improved China - Australia trade, have cooled market speculation. After adjustment, short - long opportunities after stabilization can be considered, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies are favorable for palm oil consumption expectations, and China and India have purchasing needs. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [1][8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term soil moisture of US cotton has improved, which is negative for the market, but the international cotton price valuation is low. Zheng cotton's short - term focus is on supply before new cotton listing. Buying on dips can be considered [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be between 50 - 58 million tons, with a certain reduction. Before November, the market speculation around the opening price is long, and short - long opportunities can be considered [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: The current supply pressure is high, but the incremental space is shrinking. Long - position opportunities for far - month contracts can be considered, and short - selling on a short - term basis is not recommended blindly [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Beans Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of beans meal (main contract daily closing) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 3097.14 yuan/ton, down 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [3]. - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.20 million tons from last week; the beans meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment in the next one to two weeks, paying attention to the final US soybean area and yield data [5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 2627.89 yuan/ton, down 47.37 yuan or 1.77% [6]. - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from last week [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment and stabilization, but be cautious when chasing long positions [7]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [8]. - **Export Information**: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, are 869,780 tons, an increase of 17.5% from the same period last month [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a buying - on - dips strategy, paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil this month [8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The main contract of Zheng cotton, CF2509, increases by 0.11% to 14030 yuan/ton; the domestic spot price drops by 0.19% to 15211 yuan/ton; the main contract of ICE cotton drops by 0.19% to 67.47 cents/pound [11]. - **Supply and Demand Information**: In the US, the drought area in the cotton - growing region expands, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton increases by 2% to 55%. In China, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to exceed 740 million tons, and the import volume in July is 5 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreases by 15.06 million tons to 185.61 million tons [11][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider，buying on dips due to the low international cotton price valuation and the supply - tight situation before new cotton listing [13]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increases by 0.39% to 11470 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production and Inventory Information**: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreases by 167 tons to 9519 tons [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities as the market speculation around the opening price is long before November [15]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, decreases by 0.18% to 13765 yuan/ton; the domestic live pig spot price drops by 0.07% to 13820 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Information**: The planned August slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increases by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of newborn piglets from January to July increases, but the increment of breeding sows slows down. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [16][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not blindly short - sell on a short - term basis. Consider establishing long positions for far - month contracts on dips [18].

2025 年 08 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3999 | -23（-0.57%） | 3995 | -18（-0.45%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3113 | -33（-1.05%） | 3105 | -23（-0.74%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1055 | +19.5（+1.88%） | | | | | （美元/短吨） CBOT豆粕12 | 293.8 -3.2 | （-1.08%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 3080～3110， M2509+0/+30， 较昨持平； | 较昨-20至持平； 8-9月M2509+30/+60， | 8月27日前提货M2509-50； 持平； | 现货基差 9月M2509+0/+10/+40， 持 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 平； 10月M2601+0/+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The exemption volume of US biodiesel may fall short of expectations, leading to an increase in international oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Consolidating at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose significantly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][11]. - Soybean: Rebounding and fluctuating [2][11]. - Corn: Weakening [2][14]. - Sugar: Trading in a range [2][17]. - Cotton: Futures prices fluctuating narrowly, waiting for new drivers [2][22]. - Eggs: Pay attention to the rhythm of culling laying hens [2][26]. - Pigs: Wait for the spot market to confirm at the end of the month [2][28]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil and soybean oil futures prices showed different trends in the day - and night - sessions. For example, the palm oil main contract closed at 9,436 yuan/ton during the day session with a decline of 0.53%, and 9,596 yuan/ton at night with an increase of 1.70%. Spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons by the end of June. The US is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemptions. Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20, 2025 increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean and soybean meal futures prices had different performances. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the trading volume and inventory of soybean meal showed certain trends [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 21, CBOT soybeans rose due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The US soybean crop is growing well, and the new - season soybean sales exceeded expectations [11][13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: Corn futures prices showed a downward trend, and important spot prices such as the Jinzhou closing price decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest also changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained stable, while prices in the Northeast and North China showed a weakening trend [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The original sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound, and the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton. The futures main contract price was 5,688 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has decreased. China's sugar imports in July increased by 320,000 tons [17]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Cotton futures prices fluctuated slightly, and spot prices in different regions such as the North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton decreased slightly. Trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading remained weak, and the cotton textile market was generally sluggish. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, and the US cotton weekly export sales data was average [23]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg futures prices declined, and the basis and spot prices in different regions showed certain trends [26]. - **No specific macro and industry news provided for eggs in the text**. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Pig futures and spot prices had different changes, and the basis and spreads also showed corresponding trends [30]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, while demand growth was limited. The market is waiting for government procurement to boost sentiment, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in the long - term price center [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Peanut futures prices declined slightly, and important spot prices remained stable. Trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding changes [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts are gradually being listed, with the supply in Henan being acceptable. The prices of white - sand peanuts are slightly weak, while the prices of large peanuts are stable. New peanuts in Jilin are expected to be listed around mid - to late September [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For corn, due to the increase in US corn production and ending stocks by USDA, international corn prices are dragged down. In the domestic market, with new grains to be listed in September in the Northeast production area, the supply is relatively loose, demand support is limited, and the spot price is under pressure. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2] - For corn starch, as previously shutdown enterprises resume production, the industry's operating rate has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2166 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2484 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. Corn futures持仓量 (active contract) is 949895 hands, up 12659 hands; corn starch futures持仓量 (active contract) is 200843 hands, up 6844 hands [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 91084 hands, up 11036 hands; for corn starch, it is - 21149 hands, up 1645 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 105851 hands, down 4924 hands; that of corn starch is 7450 hands, unchanged [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 366 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 403 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents; CBOT corn total position (weekly) is 1549876 contracts, down 67625 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 133174 contracts, down 25206 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The f.o.b. price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, up 0.11 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the corn main contract is 214.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; the predicted sown area in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 340.2 tons, down 24.1 tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 247 tons, down 22 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 133.9 tons, up 0.7 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, down 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, down 13.28 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 70 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.06 tons, down 2.4 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 52.3%, down 3.6% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.87%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.86%, down 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.34% [2] Industry News - Based on a sample survey of 179 farmlands, the expected corn yield per acre in Indiana is 193.82 bushels, higher than last year's 187.54 bushels/acre and the three - year average of 182.09 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2003 [2] - Based on 336 samples, the expected corn yield per acre in Nebraska this year is 179.50 bushels, higher than 173.25 bushels/acre in the 2024 survey and the three - year average of 166.33 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2021 [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by factors such as global supply - demand adjustments, domestic supply expectations, and downstream demand. The sugar market is influenced by Brazilian production estimates and domestic supply pressure. The pulp market faces supply and demand challenges with high inventory and weak demand [2][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton (- 0.32%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 649,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% and a month - on - month increase of 3.33% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending stocks made the supply - demand pattern shift from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. Domestically, the supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton production is expected to increase [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but policy regulation may limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a change of + 15 yuan/ton (+ 0.26%) from the previous day. In July, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production data shows a decline in some aspects but a high sugar - making ratio. Domestic sugar sales have slowed, and imported sugar pressure is increasing [5][6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short - term, sugar prices will likely oscillate due to supply pressure, but a potential tail - end rise may occur in the fourth quarter [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, a change of - 42 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong decreased by 40 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply pressure exists in the second half of the year with high port inventories. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, and the improvement of terminal demand is expected to be limited [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9]