Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could have significant ripple effects beyond the energy market, particularly impacting global agricultural prices [1] Group 1: Fertilizer Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for the global nitrogen fertilizer market, accounting for approximately 60% of total fertilizer usage, essential for crops like corn and grains [3] - Over a quarter of global nitrogen fertilizer trade and about 20% of liquefied natural gas (a key raw material for fertilizer production) typically pass through the Strait, making the supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical risks [3] - Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged by about 40%, reflecting tightening supply and rising input costs [3] Group 2: Agricultural Production Risks - The report highlights that the greater risk to the agricultural market may stem from decreased crop yields rather than just rising input costs [3] - Fertilizer shortages could lead to reduced yields due to delayed or improper fertilization, and some farmers may shift to crops with lower fertilizer intensity, further tightening grain supply [3] Group 3: Regional Impact Variability - Different regions are expected to experience varying levels of impact; while the U.S. may be relatively insulated in the short term due to pre-season fertilizer purchases, Europe, Australia, and regions in the Southern Hemisphere may face greater disruptions [3] - This situation could increase demand for U.S. grain exports and elevate global prices [3] Group 4: Broader Commodity Market Implications - The conflict underscores the growing role of commodities as a hedge against supply shocks, with a broad risk exposure in the commodity market potentially driving up inflation and hindering global growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is escalating the risk of spillover effects, particularly in the energy and agricultural sectors [1]. Group 1: Energy Market Impact - The Russian government has announced a ban on gasoline exports starting April 1, aimed at stabilizing prices amid the turmoil in the Middle East and prioritizing domestic supply [2][4]. - The ban will last until July 31, with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister indicating that the crisis has caused significant volatility in global oil and petroleum product markets [4]. - The conflict has severely disrupted shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to dramatic fluctuations in international oil prices [5]. - Approximately 40% of Russia's oil supply is reportedly affected by Ukraine's intensified attacks on its oil industry, which could have long-term implications for Russia's export capabilities [5]. Group 2: Agricultural Sector Risks - Economists warn that the current conflict has triggered one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years, leading to soaring natural gas prices and tightening fertilizer supplies [6]. - The United Nations World Food Programme has highlighted that the poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are heavily reliant on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region, with shortages coinciding with the planting season [6]. - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical channel for global energy and fertilizer transport, handling about 20 million barrels of oil daily, which constitutes approximately 35% of global crude oil transport [7]. - The supply of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is under direct threat, with around 30% of global urea trade already impacted by the conflict [7]. - Countries like Ethiopia, which depend on Gulf imports for over 90% of their nitrogen fertilizer, are facing severe shortages [7].

等待出口预期 尿素周报 2026/03/28 张正华 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 周度评估 行情走势 图1：尿素指数 1,500.0 1,550.0 1,600.0 1,650.0 1,700.0 1,750.0 1,800.0 1,850.0 1,900.0 1,950.0 2,000.0 2025-01-01 2025-01-08 2025-01-15 2025-01-22 2025-01-29 2025-02-05 2025-02-12 2025-02-19 2025-02-26 2025-03-05 2025-03-12 2025-03-19 2025-03-26 2025-04-02 2025-04-09 2025-04-16 2025-04-23 2025-04-30 2025-05-07 2025-05- ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Sierte (002538) has been found to have falsified financial records in its 2021 and 2023 annual reports, leading to significant discrepancies in reported profits and costs [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Misstatements - In 2021, Sierte's subsidiary Guizhou Lufa Industrial Co., Ltd. fabricated contracts and settlement documents, resulting in a fictitious increase in assets and profits by 45.804 million yuan [1][2]. - The company also engaged in false procurement of urea and sales of organic fertilizer, which inflated costs by 18.9603 million yuan and revenue by 9.5029 million yuan, respectively [2]. - The overall impact of these fraudulent activities led to a reported profit increase of 36.3467 million yuan in 2021, which constituted 6.76% of the total disclosed profit for that year [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau issued an administrative penalty notice, indicating that the company’s financial disclosures contained false records [1][3]. - Starting March 31, 2026, Sierte's stock will be subject to risk warnings, with its trading name changing to "ST Sierte" and a trading limit of 5% on price fluctuations [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market opened higher and closed higher today, with the market transaction price rising after the increase in futures trading yesterday [1]. - High daily production and national reserve supplies ensure domestic urea supply, contrasting with the shortage of overseas resources [1]. - The start - up data of compound fertilizer factories continued to rise this period, but the increase has shrunk significantly. Agricultural demand is basically weakening, and the downstream support mainly relies on nitrogen - containing compound fertilizers in spring and summer, supplemented by the demand from panel factories and melamine [1]. - The inventory continued to decline this period, with a 13.4% decrease compared to last week, and is expected to continue to decline next week [1]. - The market price fluctuation has narrowed. The main tone of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices limits the rise and fall of urea, and the price fluctuations of other commodities have also weakened. The urea market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea market opened higher and closed higher today, and the market transaction price increased after the rise in futures trading yesterday. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in major domestic producing areas such as Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are concentrated at 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1872 yuan/ton, closed higher, and finally closed at 1877 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.43%. The trading volume was 191703 lots, a decrease of 4937 lots. Among the top 20 main positions of the main contract, the long position decreased by 945 lots, and the short position decreased by 1075 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +447 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of +418 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +1546 lots, and Galaxy Futures had a net short position of -1967 lots [2]. - On March 26, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8707, a decrease of 317 compared to the previous trading day. Among them, Meishan Xindu (Yuntu Holdings UR) decreased by 250, and Zhongnong Yuncang decreased by 67 [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - After the increase in futures trading yesterday, the market transaction price increased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in major domestic producing areas such as Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are concentrated at 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1. Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was -17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3.2. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 27, 2026, the national daily urea production was 218,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared to yesterday, and the start - up rate was 86.91% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea spot ex - factory quotes have reached the March guidance price, and the domestic market is in a critical period of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season. The ex - factory price of urea spot remains stable. The off - season storage starts to be fully released in March. Affected by geopolitical conflict news, the bulk market as a whole has corrected, the urea futures market has fluctuated, and spot transactions have slowed down. The supply has decreased slightly due to an increase in temporary failures. The demand for green - turning fertilizer in the central region is coming to an end, while the spring plowing in the South China and Southwest regions is in progress. The compound fertilizer production has continued to pick up, with good shipments of low - price orders in the early stage, but the high - price market has some resistance. The melamine market sentiment is good, exports are promising, prices are rising, production has increased, and there is rigid demand for procurement. Recently, industrial demand has increased, factory inventories have decreased, and port inventories have slightly increased. The situation in Iran has led to a significant increase in international urea prices, but there is no new news about the current domestic export quota, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season storage release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On March 26, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,875 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,890 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,890 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of small - block anthracite was 850 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 15 yuan/ton (-12), in Henan was - 15 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was 15 yuan/ton (-12) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of March 26, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.35% (an increase of 0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 70.05 tons (-10.84), and the port sample inventory was 16.90 tons (+0.20) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 290 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the export profit was 2,829 yuan/ton (-4) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The situation in Iran has led to a significant increase in international urea prices, but there is no new news about the current domestic export quota, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market [2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Production and Orders - As of March 26, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 51.24% (an increase of 1.27%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 65.98% (an increase of 6.67%); the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 8.24 days (-0.05) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 70.05 tons (-10.84), and the port sample inventory was 16.90 tons (+0.20) [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Neutral [2] - PP: Neutral [2] - PVC: Neutral [2] - PTA/PX: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral with Adjustment [7] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Urea: Bullish [8] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [2] Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand patterns of various chemical products are changing. Some products are facing supply contractions, while others are experiencing changes in demand and cost factors [2][6][7]. - Different products show different trends, including oscillations, cautious bullishness, and bullishness, depending on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and cost - related factors [2][6][8]. Summary by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,767 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 27.3%. The L05 basis was - 177 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 135 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, with the parking ratio rising to 19%. Multiple devices are planned to be overhauled before early April. Short - term geopolitical conflicts persist, and the supply - demand pattern is gradually tightening [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,120 yuan/ton, up 1.6% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 12.9%. The PP05 basis was - 102 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 311 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and supply contraction intensifies. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side strongly supports PP. The parking ratio reached a record high of 26%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving [14]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,650 yuan/ton, down 0.9% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume increased by 4.0%. The V05 basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 116 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Basic Logic**: The start - up increased slightly, the de - stocking slope of the upper and middle reaches slowed down, and the market fluctuated widely. The raw material ethylene shortage intensifies the expectation of load reduction for ethylene - based PVC globally. High inventory and weak basis limit the upside space [18]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,070 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton. The PXN was 280.3 US dollars/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts intensify. The supply side has domestic device load reduction, and the downstream polyester start - up load increases weakly. The PX fundamentals improve. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical changes [6][20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term attention to callback buying opportunities; TA5 - 9 positive spread for the far - month contract with the expectation of geopolitical easing [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol was 66.45% as of March 19 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persist, and domestic and overseas devices continue to reduce loads. The downstream demand is relatively good but weaker year - on - year. The import pressure is expected to ease in March - April [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Some long positions should take profit as the geopolitical game enters a critical week [25]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol主力 is at a near - one - year high, with a back structure, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and overseas device loads are low. The import is expected to shrink in March - April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating de - stocking [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical impulses [29]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,841 yuan/ton. The urea comprehensive profit was 188.12 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was 29 yuan/ton [30][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Demand has recovered, and factory inventories are continuously de - stocking [31][32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea price is oscillating strongly. Wait for new demand (overseas exports) to take profit [33]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,509 yuan/ton. The SH05 basis was - 234 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was - 51 yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory increased slightly at a high level, and the spot price remained stable. The overall chlor - alkali load in the country increased slightly to 84.6%, and it is expected to continue to increase. Pay attention to the spring overhaul progress and export order volume changes [35].

Market Overview - The current market is characterized by a short-term orientation, with significant amounts of money being driven by retail traders and systematic hedge funds, leading to rapid rotations in market sectors [3][4] - There is a perception of complacency regarding the potential long-term impacts of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the energy sector [4] Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict has led to a reevaluation of supply chains, similar to the changes seen during the pandemic, with a focus on the necessity for diversification due to chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz [5][6] - The military actions have resulted in significant production shutdowns, particularly in LNG capabilities, which are expected to take 3 to 5 years to rebuild [6] Economic Outlook - The potential for sectoral recessions is highlighted, with the possibility of rolling recessions affecting different parts of the economy rather than a full economic recession [10][12] - Sustainable increases in oil prices could exacerbate these sectoral recessions, particularly impacting consumer-oriented sectors with high energy costs [13] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges due to its dual mandate of managing inflation and the labor market, complicating its decision-making process regarding interest rates [15][16] - Current labor market data suggests resilience, but any significant weakness could lead the Fed to maintain its current policy stance rather than pursue rate hikes [16][17]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term urea market is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. The weakening cost support from coal prices and relatively sufficient supply with limited growth in agricultural demand are the main factors. If coal prices rebound or agricultural demand exceeds expectations, urea prices may rise; otherwise, if agricultural demand is less than expected or enterprise inventories continue to increase, prices may face further pressure [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of urea futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 1,862 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 144,800 lots, and the open interest was 192,100 lots, indicating active market trading. The basis structure shows that the spot market is slightly stronger than the futures market, but the overall spread remains at a low level [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Raw Material Cost**: Coal and natural gas are the main raw materials for urea production, and their price changes directly affect urea production costs [3]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: Urea supply comes from coal - based and gas - based urea plants, and demand is mainly from agricultural fertilization and industrial uses [3]. - **Agricultural Demand Seasonality**: Urea demand has obvious seasonal characteristics. Spring (March - May) is the peak season for agricultural fertilization, with concentrated demand for winter wheat top - dressing and spring plowing fertilizer preparation [5]. - **Industrial Demand**: Industrial urea is mainly used in the fields of wood - based panels, melamine, and vehicle urea, and its demand changes affect the overall consumption structure of urea [5]. - **Inventory Data**: Inventory levels reflect the supply - demand balance, and changes in enterprise inventories directly affect the supply pressure in the spot market [5]. - **Policy Factors**: Fertilizer export policies, agricultural subsidy policies, and environmental protection production - restriction policies affect the supply - demand pattern of the urea market, especially the fertilizer export tariff policy and off - season reserve policy [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short term, the urea market is expected to be volatile and weak. The cost support from coal prices is weakening, and the supply is relatively sufficient while agricultural demand growth is limited. Urea, in the middle of the industrial chain, is affected by both raw material costs and terminal demand. Changes in coal prices, agricultural demand, and industrial demand will all affect urea prices [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation; Inter - period: Observation; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural demand for urea is weakening while the industrial demand is strengthening. The ex - factory price of urea spot has reached the March guidance price, and the price is mainly stable during the key period of spring plowing supply guarantee and price stability. The off - season storage starts to be fully released in March. Affected by geopolitical conflict news, the bulk market has corrected, the urea futures market has fluctuated, and spot trading has slowed down. Supply has decreased slightly due to more temporary failures. In the demand side, the application of green - turning fertilizer in the central region is nearly over, and spring plowing is in progress in the South China and Southwest regions. The operation rate of compound fertilizer has continued to rise, with good shipment of low - price orders and some resistance to high - price markets. The melamine market is in good sentiment, with rising prices, increasing operation rate, and rigid demand for procurement. Recently, industrial demand has increased, factory inventory has decreased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp rise in international urea prices, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to Shandong and Henan urea small - particle prices, Henan basis, urea main contract closing price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][9] 3.2 Urea Production - Figures about urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided [24] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - The report shows figures on urea production cost, urea production profit, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural gas - based capacity utilization rate [22][29] 3.4 Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - Figures related to urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle and large - particle FOB in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China FOB, export profit, and on - disk export profit are presented [36][41][43] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Figures about compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pending order days are shown [49][54] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures related to factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, urea warehouse receipt quantity, urea main contract holding volume, and urea main contract trading volume are provided [50][59][58]