中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反复拉扯，油价反弹。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊谈判仍有较大 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩格局仍 | | ★ | | 未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩油产量 | | | | 变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价短期 | | LPG | | 受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需方面， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存 | | | | 在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 标品装置陆续回归，仓单增加，基本面偏空，短期产业可关注逢高套保机 | | | 空头盘整 | 会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增加，农膜需求淡季，基差跌 | | ★ | | 至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | | 地缘扰动仍存，短期跟随成本震荡 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘缓和，油价回落，短期仍有较强不确定性。地缘：中东地缘拉扯， | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 美伊谈判仍有较大不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动： | | ★ | | 供给过剩格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量： | | | | 美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价大幅回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价 | | LPG | | 短期受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工 | | | | 需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 两油石化库存重新累库，寒潮影响阶段性回落，盘面回吐地缘和天气溢价， | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 短期产业可关注逢高套保机会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增 | | | | 加，基差跌至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘不确定性较高，油价短期震荡偏强。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 谈判仍有较大不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供 | | ★ | | 给过剩格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美 | | | | 国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘提振油价叠加沙特上调 CP 合同价，成本端拉动液化气反弹。成 | | LPG | | 本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 好；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下 | | | | 游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 两油石化库存降至同期低位，上中游显性库存暂无突出矛盾，涨势延续， | | ★ | 震荡偏强 | 关注地缘变动。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增加，基差跌至同 | | | | 期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | | 节前仍 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘冲突升温，油价走强。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，当前不确定性上升， | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩格局仍未扭转，需 | | ★ | | 求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌 | | | | 以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘反复，跟随成本端反弹，关注月底沙特 CP 合同价。成本端油价 | | LPG | | 短期受地缘扰动反弹，当前原油仍过剩，中枢或继续下移；供需方面，液 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存在韧 | | | | 性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 短期强预期主导盘面走势，跟随成本继续偏强震荡，基差小幅走弱，关注 | | L | 震荡偏强 | 地缘和寒潮变动。两油石化库存降至同期低位，上中游显性库存暂无突出 | | ★ | | 矛盾。近期装置陆续回归，预计下周产量环比增加，基差跌至同期低位， | | | | 关注后市需求验证 ...

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘反复扰动，油价短线反弹。地缘：中东地缘反复，油价反弹；核心驱 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | ★ | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘反复，跟随成本端反弹。成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹，当前 | | LPG | | 原油仍过剩，中枢或继续下移；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存 | | | | 环比下降。 | | L | | 乙烷继续涨价，盘面跟随成本继续偏强震荡，关注寒潮和地缘变动。两油 | | | 空头反弹 | 石化库存暂无明显压力，上游出厂价偏强。近期线性排产继续回升，农膜 | | ★ | | 需求淡季，终端补库意愿不足，基本面供强需弱存累库预期，谨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Bearish rebound [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Range - bound [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously avoid shorting [2][3] - **Urea**: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Bearish continuation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Extreme cold weather drives up gas prices, leading to an oil price rebound. However, there is a supply - surplus situation in the off - season, and geopolitical uncertainties remain [1][8][9]. - **LPG**: Follows the cost - end oil price. In the medium - to - long - term, the oil price is under pressure, and the LPG price has room for compression [1][14][15]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but the spot price has not stopped falling. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short term [1][19]. - **PP**: Follows the cost to rebound in the short term. The fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and the short - term supply pressure eases [1][23]. - **PVC**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [1][26]. - **PX/PTA**: Valuation is not low, with supply and demand in a tight balance. It is expected to perform well, but there are risks of negative feedback from the demand side and excessive oil price drops before the Spring Festival [2][28]. - **MEG**: Valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The supply increases, and the demand weakens seasonally. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][31][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the rebound height may be limited [2][35][37]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the supply load is rising. The demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season [3][39][41]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air drives up gas prices, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [6][45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. However, there are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials and the compression space for spreads [6][49][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak. In the absence of further cold - repair implementation, it should be treated bearishly [6][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, and the demand support is insufficient. It should be treated bearishly before further intensification of maintenance [6][58]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose by 0.43%, Brent fell by 0.60%, and the domestic SC rose by 0.59% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up gas prices, pushing up oil prices. The Middle - East geopolitical situation eases but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On January 21, the PG main contract closed at 4064 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month [13]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price has compression space. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's related data shows certain price and volume changes [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the linear production schedule increases, but the spot price has not stopped falling. The terminal replenishment is insufficient, and it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6600 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [21]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds with the cost in the short term. The supply and demand are both weak, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the maintenance expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6450 - 6600] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The liquid caustic soda price drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4650 - 4850] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply is affected by device maintenance, the downstream demand weakens seasonally, and the cost end is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, with the TA05 monitored in the range of [5130 - 5220] [29]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is low, the domestic supply load increases, the demand weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulates [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, with the EG05 monitored in the range of [3680 - 3760] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent market - review section. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the domestic and overseas device loads decline, the supply pressure eases, and the demand weakens slightly [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure eases in January, and the demand is suppressed by weak olefin demand. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2200 - 2250] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply load rises, the demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still relatively high [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter - storage benefit is limited, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.183 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 17.80% month - on - month [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up demand and gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory situation is known [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space may be limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [4.866 - 5.496] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 21, the BU main contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 0.57% month - on - month [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The raw material end provides support, the cost profit declines, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory increases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spread valuation returns to normal but still has compression space. There are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are both weak, the demand is in the off - season, and the weak demand suppresses the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from float glass is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol [2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ethylene glycol, natural gas [2][4] - **Bearish Rebound**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, asphalt [1][4] - **Bearish Consolidation**: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Sideways Consolidation**: Urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances lead to a rebound in oil prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure [1][7][9] - **LPG**: It rebounds following the cost - end oil price in the short - term, but in the medium - to - long - term, the price is expected to decline due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil [1][13][14] - **L**: The cost support improves, and the price continues to rebound. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market is expected to repair profits [1][18] - **PP**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase, and the cost end strengthens. The supply - demand is weak, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to PDH device dynamics [1][22] - **PVC**: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens, and there is an expectation of future maintenance [1][25] - **PX/PTA**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05 [2][27][28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2][30][31] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05 [2][34][36] - **Urea**: The supply - side pressure increases. Although there are winter storage and spring fertilizer use expectations, be cautious about chasing up. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05 [2][38][40] - **Natural Gas**: The supply side is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Although there is support in the demand season, the upward space is limited [4][44] - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical situation in South America leads to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The price center moves up, but there is still room for compression in the medium - to - long - term [4][48][49] - **Glass**: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound space. The price fluctuates within a range [4][53] - **Soda Ash**: The demand for heavy soda weakens, and the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term. The price fluctuates at the bottom [4][57] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On January 12, international oil prices rose. WTI increased by 2.35%, Brent by 2.18%, and SC by 1.87% [5][6] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a rebound in oil prices. Core: In the off - season, crude oil supply exceeds demand, and global and US inventories are increasing [7][8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ production expansion puts pressure on prices. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 445] [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On January 12, the PG main contract closed at 4236 yuan/ton, up 0.33% month - on - month [12] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term: It rebounds following the oil price. Long - term: The oil price is under pressure, and the supply - demand is relatively stable. The inventory decreases [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [14] L - **Market Review**: L05 closed at 6737 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price of naphtha rises, strengthening cost support. The parking ratio increases, and production is expected to decline. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market is expected to continue to repair profits. Pay attention to the range of L [6600 - 6750] [18] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.7% month - on - month [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase the cost end. The supply - demand is weak in January, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics. Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6600] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 closed at 4905 yuan/ton, down 1.3% month - on - month [23] - **Basic Logic**: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with a positive spread between months. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 4950] [25] PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the past three months [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: The processing fee improves. Supply: The overall maintenance intensity is high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5080 - 5170] [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG05 closed at 3639 yuan/ton, at a low - level position in the past six months [29] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is relatively low. Supply: Domestic production capacity utilization increases, and the overseas maintenance is expected to be high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3790 - 3880] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol reduces positions and rises, and the port basis weakens [34] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: Domestic and overseas production capacity utilization increases, and there is supply pressure in January. Demand: It improves slightly. Cost: The support is weakly stable [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2219 - 2269] [36] Urea - **Market Review**: UR05 closed at 1777 yuan/ton, at a high - level position this year [37][39] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: The overall production capacity utilization increases, and the supply pressure exists. Demand: It weakens, and winter storage has limited positive effects. Inventory: It is at a relatively high level [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Winter storage has limited positive effects, and there is an export window and spring fertilizer use expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1780] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 9, the NG main contract closed at 3.169 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 6.99% month - on - month [43] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is abundant, and the recent demand is stable. The price is under pressure [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, there is demand support, but the supply is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [3.131 - 3.576] [44] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 11, the BU main contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, down 0.32% month - on - month [47] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in South America lead to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The cost profit decreases, the supply decreases, and the demand increases slightly. The inventory increases [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation returns to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to risks due to the uncertainty of raw material supply. Pay attention to the range of BU [3050 - 3150] [49] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.1% month - on - month [51] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound. The supply - demand is weak, and the profit of three processes turns negative [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [55] - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda weakens, the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term, and the inventory decreases slightly [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates at the bottom. Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [57]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [3] - Methanol: Bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure, with many varieties facing supply - demand imbalances and cost - related challenges. Some varieties are facing supply surpluses, while others are affected by weakening cost support and uncertain demand prospects [1][3][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.49%, and SC down 0.70% [7][8] - **Key drivers**: The supply surplus persists, with global crude oil inventories accelerating accumulation. OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and geopolitical factors may impact the market [9] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: US oil rig count increased, and global demand is expected to grow slightly in the future. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic reserve inventories changed [10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [11] LPG - **Market performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [13] - **Key drivers**: The downward trend of crude oil prices drags down LPG, and inventory accumulation adds downward pressure [14] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Refinery production increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but inventory is rising [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] L - **Market performance**: The price of L contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [17] - **Key drivers**: Cost support weakens, and the market is in a contango structure. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weakening [19] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic production starts to pick up seasonally, and port arrivals are sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing [19] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of L [6400 - 6550] [19] PP - **Market performance**: The price of PP contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [21] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and PDH device maintenance willingness is low. Inventory pressure is high, and demand is entering the off - season [23] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The parking ratio is declining, and there are few maintenance plans in the future. The OPEC+ production increase cycle may lead to further oil price declines [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Consider arbitrage strategies. Focus on the range of PP [6100 - 6250] and propylene [5600 - 5750] [23] PVC - **Market performance**: The price of PVC contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [24] - **Key drivers**: The market is at a discount to the spot, and the high - production - low - profit situation persists. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of northwest devices [26] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Up - middle stream inventory remains high, and demand is in the off - season. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is being compressed [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term; wait for inventory to decline for long - term long positions. Focus on the range of V [4200 - 4350] [26] PTA - **Market performance**: The price of PTA contracts increased, and spreads and processing fees changed [27] - **Key drivers**: Processing fees are low, and device maintenance intensity is high. Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is expected to weaken [28] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Multiple domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, and downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Focus on the range of TA [4580 - 4670] [29] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market performance**: The price of MEG contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [30] - **Key drivers**: Domestic and overseas device loads decreased, but demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [31] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or reduced load, downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. Social inventory is slightly accumulating [31] - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [3540 - 3630] [32] Methanol - **Market performance**: The price of methanol contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [33] - **Key drivers**: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the cost support weakens. Supply pressure is large, and demand changes little [34] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is at a high level, overseas devices are reducing load, and port inventory is gradually decreasing. Demand from MTO and traditional downstream industries has different trends [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract, and look for low - buying opportunities on the 05 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 [2011 - 2075] [36] Urea - **Market performance**: The price of urea contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [37] - **Key drivers**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening, and supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is short - term good but lacks sustainability [38] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Urea daily production is high, but some gas - head enterprises will stop for maintenance. Demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is increasing, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [39] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Focus on the range of UR [1620 - 1650] [40] Natural Gas - **Market performance**: On December 10, the NG main contract closed at 4.595 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.46% [43] - **Key drivers**: Demand enters the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the current supply is relatively abundant, putting pressure on the price [44] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms decreased, US production is expected to be stable, and inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.021 - 4.406] [45] Asphalt - **Market performance**: On December 11, the BU main contract closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [47] - **Key drivers**: The price is mainly affected by the decline of crude oil prices and the weak supply - demand situation [48] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: December refinery production is expected to decline, demand is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing [48] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2850 - 2950] [49] Glass - **Market performance**: The price of glass contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [51] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and the industrial outlook is weak. Supply is difficult to shrink significantly, and demand is weak [53] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: A production line in East China restarted, and the daily melting volume remained stable. Real - estate - related demand is weak, and inventory is high [53] - **Strategy recommendation**: Bearish in the short - term, wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [930 - 980] [53] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The price of soda ash contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [55] - **Key drivers**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly, the basis weakened, and warehouse receipts remained high. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is insufficient [57] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Factory inventory decreased, but it is still at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and a large - scale device is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The cold - repair expectation of float glass increases [57] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of SA [1080 - 1130] [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish with potential rebounds [2] - L: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PP: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PX/PTA: Buy on dips [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Bottom - side oscillation, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4] - Methanol: Add long positions on dips [4] - Urea: Buy on dips [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish trend continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continuation in the second phase [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market for most energy and chemical products is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical situations, and cost support. Some products face supply - side pressures, while others are influenced by seasonal demand changes and cost fluctuations. For example, crude oil is pressured by oversupply in the off - season, while natural gas is boosted by increased demand in the winter [2][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.69%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC up 0.47% [8] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term support comes from the Ukraine's attack on the CPC pipeline and South American uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, with OPEC+ maintaining its production policy and global and US inventories rising [9] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 5, the US oil rig count increased by 6 to 413. Russia's Tuapse port's oil product exports in December are expected to increase by 21.4%. Market expects India's imports from Russia to reduce by nearly one - third. As of November 28, US crude and product inventories increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [445 - 455] for SC [11] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the PG main contract closed at 4294 yuan/ton, down 0.16% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4510 (+10), 4411 (+0), and 4470 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [15] - **Basic Logic**: It is closely related to the cost of crude oil. Although it rebounds with short - term oil price increases, the long - term oil price trend is downward. There is some support from downstream chemical demand, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Supply has increased, while inventory has decreased [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [17] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton (-8). The basis was +31 yuan/ton (-22) [20] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthened, leading to a short - term oversold rebound, but spot prices did not follow suit. The supply remains sufficient due to seasonal increases in domestic production. The peak season for shed films is ending, and oil prices may decline in the medium - term [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Exit short positions. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [6750 - 6900] [21] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The basis was +89 yuan/ton (+28) [24] - **Basic Logic**: The increase in the parking ratio has alleviated supply pressure, but demand remains weak, and there is a high inventory - reduction pressure. OPEC+ is still in the production - increase cycle, and oil prices may continue to decline. The production of propylene warehouse receipts may lead to a weak market [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It may be strong in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Consider going long on PP processing fees. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP and [5850 - 6000] for propylene [25] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5). The basis was - 76 yuan/ton (-5) [27] - **Basic Logic**: High - level production has continued, and the main contract hit a record low at night. During the macro - policy window period, trading has returned to the weak fundamentals. High social inventory limits upward movement, but low valuation provides some support. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position - shifting [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [4350 - 4500] [28] PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton (+66) [29] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is generally low, and many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. PX is oscillating weakly. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or conducting a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of [4635 - 4700] [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas production loads have decreased, but the arrival volume has increased. Downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. It has a low valuation but lacks upward momentum [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3680 - 3770] [34] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Taicang spot prices have continued to weaken [37] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory restricts spot price rebounds. Domestic production loads have increased, while overseas production loads have decreased. Port inventory is decreasing, but the speed has slowed down. The arrival volume in December is expected to be about 1.3 billion tons. Demand has changed little, and cost support has weakened [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound height of the main contract may be limited. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of [2040 - 2080] for MA01 [39] Urea - **Market Performance**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened, with a basis of 47 (+25) yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: The daily output is currently high but is expected to decrease as some gas - based enterprises shut down for maintenance in mid - December. Demand is currently good but lacks sustainability. Social inventory has decreased slightly but is still at a high level. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the range of [1665 - 1695] [43] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the NG main contract closed at 5.063 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.36% month - on - month [45] - **Basic Logic**: Entering the consumption peak season, the extremely cold weather in the US has boosted heating demand. The number of US natural gas drilling platforms has decreased, and EU import bans on Russian gas will be gradually implemented. US natural gas inventory has decreased [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to increased winter demand. Pay attention to the range of [4.980 - 5.185] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 5, the BU main contract closed at 2948 yuan/ton. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2930 (-10), 3180 (+0), and 3000 (-50) yuan/ton respectively [50] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. Oil prices have fallen due to geopolitical easing. The comprehensive profit of asphalt has decreased. Supply is expected to decrease in December, while demand has increased slightly. Inventory has decreased [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [2900 - 3000] [52] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16). The basis was 77 yuan/ton (+16) [55] - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has decreased, and multiple production lines are planned for cold repair in December. The real - estate market is weak, and demand remains low [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [1020 - 1070] [56] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton (+25). The basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+5) [59] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts have continued to increase, putting pressure on the market through industrial hedging. Supply and demand have both decreased, and long - term supply is expected to be abundant [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].