Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to geopolitical easing and increasing supply - side pressure, but may rebound in the short - term due to unexpected inventory drops [1][5]. - LPG prices have rebounded in the short - term due to cost stabilization and valuation repair, but investors should take profit on long positions due to potential cost weakening [1]. - L prices may improve due to expected production cuts in South Korea and approaching peak demand season, and investors can consider buying on dips [1]. - PP prices face limited rebound space due to weak industry expectations and high warehouse receipts, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - PVC prices are under pressure due to increasing warehouse receipts, inventory accumulation, and policy - affected exports, and short positions should be held [1]. - PX prices are expected to rise as the domestic chemical industry's "anti - involution" may start, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [1]. - PTA prices may increase with the approaching consumption peak season and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices may rise due to low inventory and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [2]. - Methanol prices may increase as negative factors are expected to subside, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract [2]. - Urea prices may be supported by potential fertilizer exports to India, and long positions in the 01 contract can be held [2]. - Asphalt prices are under pressure due to sufficient raw material supply and increasing supply - demand imbalance, and short positions can be lightly established [2]. - Glass prices are expected to decline due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and increasing inventory, and short positions should be held [2]. - Soda ash prices are likely to fall due to high supply, inventory accumulation, and industrial hedging pressure, and short positions should be held [2]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.52%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC down 0.64% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: US crude inventory unexpectedly decreased, but in the long - term, the support from the peak season is weakening, and OPEC+ production increase will put pressure on prices. Supply from Azerbaijan decreased, and India's imports hit a low. US commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories changed [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 20, the PG main contract closed at 4315 yuan/ton, up 0.02% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and the valuation was repaired. Supply decreased, and demand from PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil showed different trends. Inventory decreased [10]. - **Strategy**: Be vigilant about the weakening of cost - end oil prices and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 27 day - on - day. Spot prices also declined, and warehouse receipts increased [14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: Plastic accounts for 54% of ethylene demand, and South Korea's production cut expectation supports the market. Current supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to pick up [16][17]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [17][18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [21][22]. - **Fundamentals**: Industry expectations are weak, and high warehouse receipts suppress the rebound. Supply is affected by high - level maintenance, and demand starts slowly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7150] for PP [24][25]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, exports in July exceeded expectations, but new capacity will be released in August, and exports may slow down. Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 weeks [30][31]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [31][32]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side slightly increased production. Demand is weak but expected to improve. PX inventory is still high, but the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations may support prices [35][36]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, look for low - buying opportunities, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6810 - 6900] for PX511 [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton [40]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA processing fees are low, and supply pressure may increase in the future. Demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. TA inventory is still high [41]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, buy put options, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4810] for TA01 [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, but demand is expected to improve with the peak season. Inventory is low, and "anti - involution" policies and macro - expectations may support prices [45]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, do not chase the market, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4440 - 4490] for EG01 [46]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton [48]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost is supported by coal [49]. - **Strategy**: Continue to look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract and sell put options on the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [50]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing as the operating rate is expected to rise. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Inventory is high [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract and sell put options. Focus on the range of [1780 - 1810] for UR01 [55]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 20, the main contract closed at 3454 yuan/ton, up 0.03% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [56][57]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. Inventory decreased slightly [58]. - **Strategy**: Lightly establish short positions. Focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [59]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 34 day - on - day. The market price in Hubei remained flat [61][62]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is weak, downstream orders are low, and inventory is increasing [63]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [63]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1309 yuan/ton, down 49 day - on - day. The market price in Shahe remained flat [66][67]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remains high, inventory is accumulating again, and industrial hedging pressure exists [68][69]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1290 - 1350] for SA [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices tend to decline, but the downside space is narrowing. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells around $60. [1][3][4] - LPG: Low valuation and improved demand lead to a short - term rebound. However, due to the weak oil price at the cost end, partial profit - taking on long positions is recommended. [1][7][9] - L: Cost support is weak, but with the approaching peak season for shed films, demand support strengthens. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm and consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [1][12][16] - PP: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [1][19][22] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [1][25][29] - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. [1][35][37] - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. [2][39][41] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and port inventory accumulates. Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but winter fertilizer use and exports are relatively good. Take profit on 09 short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Oil prices have room to compress, raw material supply is sufficient, and supply increases while demand decreases. Try short positions with a light position. [2] - Propylene: The absolute price is low. Buy on dips as the downstream is entering the seasonal peak season. [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.16%, Brent rising 1.14%, and SC falling 0.76%. [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increases, putting pressure on oil prices. [4] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased in January - July. Global oil demand is expected to grow, and US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending August 8. [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC. [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 18, the PG main contract closed at 3,849 yuan/ton, down 0.67% month - on - month. [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weak, but the fundamentals are good, with high basis, improved supply - demand, and a short - term rebound. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions due to the possible drag of weak oil prices at the cost end. Focus on the range of [3830 - 3930] for PG. [10] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,334 yuan/ton (down 17 day - on - day). [13][14] - **Industry News**: PE prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand. [15] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weak, but demand support strengthens with the approaching peak season. Consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,048 yuan/ton (down 36 day - on - day). [20][21] - **Industry News**: The market is expected to oscillate bearishly in the short term due to factors such as demand and supply. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,054 yuan/ton (down 43 day - on - day). [26][27] - **Industry News**: The domestic PVC market continues to be weak due to factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [28] - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern is conducive to inventory accumulation in August. [30] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton. [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Cautiously bearish. [33][34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton. [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Cautiously bullish. [37][38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the range of [4720 - 4770] for TA01. [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton. [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Cautiously bearish. [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. Focus on the range of [4370 - 4410] for EG01. [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas methanol supply increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Bearish. [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. Focus on the range of [2368 - 2397] for MA01. [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton. [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases, domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Cautiously bullish. [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 due to the possible autumn fertilizer peak and export speculation. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1760] for UR01. [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease and supply surplus pressure rises, leading to a downward trend in oil prices, but the decline space is narrowing [1][4] - LPG: High basis and improved downstream demand lead to a short - term rebound, and long positions can be partially taken profit [1][9] - L: With the approaching of the shed film peak season, the demand side strengthens, and it is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [1][16] - PP: Although the cost is weak in the short term, with the approaching of the demand peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [1][23] - PVC: After India announced the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1][30] - PX: The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and with the weakening of oil prices, it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [1][35] - PTA: Although the supply pressure is expected to increase later, considering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [1][39] - Ethylene glycol: Supply increases and demand is expected to recover, but the inventory is low, so it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [2][43] - Methanol: Supply pressure increases and demand is weak, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][47] - Urea: Supply is sufficient and domestic demand is weak, but export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][51] - Asphalt: The cost is under pressure and supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season, so it is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Last Friday, international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 3.10% (due to contract roll - over), Brent decreased 1.48%, and SC rose 0.62% [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices. In the medium - long term, oil prices may be pressed to around $60 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August output was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to grow by 685,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 699,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week ending August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [475 - 495] [6] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PG main contract closed at 3,875 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weak, but the basis is high, and the supply and demand situation improves with both supply and inventory decreasing, leading to a short - term rebound [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the price mainly follows the oil price. Partially take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3830 - 3930] [10] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,251 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Ningmei in North China was 7,280 yuan/ton [13][14] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline slightly, the basis weakens. With more device maintenance recently, the supply pressure eases. The shed film peak season is approaching, and the demand side strengthens. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [17] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, and the spot price of East China drawn wire was 7,051 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices decline, spot prices continue to decline slightly, and the basis weakens. Although the upstream maintains high - level maintenance, the demand peak season is approaching. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season and buy on dips [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 4,954 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 399 [27][28] - **Basic Logic**: After the main contract roll - over and India's announcement of the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to hold short positions [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then short [31] 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side slightly increases production, the demand side weakens but is expected to improve. The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6620 - 6720] [36] 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton [37][38] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to increase later. However, with the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step by step, buy put options, and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for TA. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4680 - 4750] [40] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton [41][42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply increases, and the demand is expected to recover. Although the inventory is low, it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4380 - 4425] [44] 3.9 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the 01 main contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton [46] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure increases as the previous maintenance devices resume production, and the demand is weak. The social inventory accumulates, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step by step, look for long - buying opportunities on 01, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage in batches. Pay attention to the range of MA [2390 - 2420] [48] 3.10 Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - granular urea in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is sufficient, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and considering the potential of the autumn fertilizer peak season and export speculation, look for long - buying opportunities on 01. Pay attention to the range of UR [1725 - 1750] [53] 3.11 Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost is under pressure, supply increases while demand decreases, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [2] 3.12 Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [2]

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][33][37][41] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG, Urea [1][48] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Propylene [1] - **Bearish**: Methanol, Asphalt [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center is moving down. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and high positions suggest potential for a rebound. Consider a light - long position [1][11]. - **L**: Demand is improving marginally. Consider buying on dips [1][16]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the start of the peak season. Consider buying on dips [1][23]. - **PVC**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [1][30]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Hold short positions cautiously and buy put options [1][35]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted [1][39]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, and sell call options [2][43]. - **Methanol**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and port inventory is accumulating. Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][46]. - **Urea**: Cost support exists, and exports are relatively good. Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][50]. - **Asphalt**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish. Try a light - short position [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season. Buy on dips [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 0.77%, and SC up 0.02% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is decreasing, and OPEC+ production increase is pressuring prices. There is still room for price compression [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's August production increased, and EIA data shows changes in US inventories [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 12, the PG main contract closed at 3813 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, but the basis is high, and positions are rising. There is potential for a rebound [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - long position and focus on the range of [3750 - 3850] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7329 yuan/ton [15]. - **Industry News**: Downstream demand is increasing, and prices are expected to rise slightly [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving marginally, and supply pressure is increasing marginally. Consider buying on dips [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7091 yuan/ton [21]. - **Industry News**: International oil prices are rising, but demand is insufficient. Prices may fluctuate [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is shifting, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Consider buying on dips [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7050 - 7200] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 5047 yuan/ton [28]. - **Industry News**: Production is normal, but fundamentals are weak. Prices may be stable [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait to go short after the rebound and focus on the range of [4900 - 5150] [30]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6726 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Cautiously bearish [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and focus on the range of [6690 - 6780] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, PTA in East China was 4670 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4684 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Cautiously bearish [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] [40]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot in East China was 4456 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4384 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Cautiously bearish [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, sell call options, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4440] [44]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the methanol spot in East China was 2393 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2383 yuan/ton [45]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. Bearish [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract, and take partial profit on the MA9 - 1 spread. Focus on the range of [2360 - 2395] [47]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1728 yuan/ton [49]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, but exports are relatively good. Cost support exists. Cautiously bullish [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [1720 - 1750] [51]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - short position and focus on the range of [3450 - 3550] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [2].

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 ★ 谨慎看空 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移，关注周五美俄会谈。油价进入旺 季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小。供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页 岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点；地缘端重点关注本周五美俄会谈。策略：买入看 跌期权。SC【490-505】 LPG ★ 谨慎看多 成本端企稳叠加高基差，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价 有所企稳；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可，PDH 开工 率 70%左右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口库存上升。 策略：轻仓试多。PG【3750-3850】 L ★ 空头反弹 成本止跌，需求边际好转，现货价格连续上涨。近期多数装置陆续重启， 国内外价差扩大，转口意愿提升，供给压力边际增加，社会库存连续 6 周 累库。但农膜旺季即将开始，开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对 价格低估值，远月合约具有抗跌性。策略：旺季临近，逢低试多。L 【7200-7400】 PP ★ 空头反弹 丙烯现货涨价，成本支撑好转，下游成交乏力，现货小幅下跌。上游 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | | 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移。油价进入旺季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐 | | | 谨慎看空 | 扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小， | | ★ | | 重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：空单止盈，暂时观 | | | | 望。SC【490-505】 | | | | 液化气估值偏低，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价偏弱，成本端 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 利空；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可，PDH 开工率 70%左 | | ★ | | 右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口库存上升。策略：轻仓试 | | | | 多。PG【3750-3850】 | | L | | 现货价格连续上涨，基差走强。近期多数装置陆续重启，国内外价差扩大，转口 意愿提升，供给压力边际增加，社会库存连续 6 周累库。但农膜旺季即将开始， | | | 谨慎看空 | | | ★ | | 开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对价 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most varieties are rated as 'Cautiously Bearish', some as 'Bearish' [1][2] Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and macro - policy impacts lead to downward price pressure [1][2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Partially take profit on short positions due to supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks [1][3] - **Key Points**: OPEC's planned September production increase of 548,000 barrels per day, combined with the mid - to - late peak season, causes downward pressure on oil prices. The key support level is around $60 per barrel [5][7] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions [1][8] - **Key Points**: Cost - end oil price decline and Saudi's CP contract price reduction drag down LPG. Although the fundamentals are okay, there is short - term downward pressure [10][11] L (PE) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions [1][13] - **Key Points**: Spot prices fall, inventory accumulates, and supply pressure increases. New capacity is expected to be put into production in August [16] PP - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 9 - 1 calendar spreads [1][19] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is weak, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream. Third - quarter production capacity pressure is high [23] PVC - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1][26] - **Key Points**: Rising raw material costs, postponed maintenance, and new capacity release lead to inventory accumulation in August [29] PX - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions and sell put options [1][32] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with high inventory. PXN is not low, and there is a lack of macro - level positive factors [34] PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and sell put options [1][36] - **Key Points**: Supply pressure may increase with new device production, while demand is weak. The processing fee is low [38] MEG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions, sell put options, and look for low - buying opportunities [1][40] - **Key Points**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with low inventory. Market sentiment has cooled [42] Glass - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][44] - **Key Points**: Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption leads to inventory reduction [47] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][49] - **Key Points**: Macro - policy hype has cooled, supply has decreased slightly, but inventory remains high, and the supply - demand surplus persists [52] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Bearish, the price range has declined [2][54] - **Key Points**: Supply - demand is balanced, inventory is high year - on - year, and there is no obvious fundamental driver. The downstream alumina market has corrected [57] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on 09 short positions, sell call options, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2][59] - **Key Points**: Supply pressure increases with the resumption of domestic and overseas devices. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is accumulating [60] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [2] - **Key Points**: Production capacity is expected to increase, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating, but exports are relatively good [2] Propylene - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 1 - 2 calendar spreads [2] - **Key Points**: Spot prices are weak, cost support is weakening, and inventory is accumulating [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普就俄乌冲突对普京施压，IMF 上调全球经济增速，油价反弹。宏观 | | | | 及地缘带来利好，短期提振油价；从供需基本面看，油价进入旺季下半程， | | 原油 | 反弹加空 | 随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大， | | | | 当前供给端重要变量集中在美国产能变化。策略：卖出 10 合约同时买入 | | | | 看涨期权对冲风险。SC【520-535】 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 油价企稳反弹，自身基本面尚可，液化气反弹。成本端原油反弹，但中长 | | | | 期仍有压缩空间；基差处于高位，估值偏低；下游化工需求回升，PDH 开 | | | | 工率升至 73.13%；供给和库存中性偏多，国内商品量小幅下降，港口库 | | | | 存有所下降。策略：卖出看跌期权。PG【4000-4100】 | | L | 谨慎看多 | 原油上涨，中美贸易谈判结束。社会库存连续 5 周累库，基本面承压。塑 | | | | 料煤制占比 20%，老旧产能占比 14%，多数产能已 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress; some chemical products are affected by factors such as inventory, production capacity, and policies, showing different trends of rise and fall [1][2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress [1]. - **Basic logic**: The oil market is currently in a situation of weak expectations and strong reality, with certain support below. However, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day; the EU introduced a new round of sanctions against Russia, reducing the upper limit of Russian crude oil sanctions to about $50 per barrel. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% from the previous month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest level since February; China's crude oil imports in June were 49.888 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.386 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 18, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels to 232.8 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve SPR decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, due to the impact of new energy and the expansion cycle of OPEC+, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. In the short term, the daily line rebounds, but the upside pressure is strong. The strategy is to lightly lay out short positions and buy call options to protect the positions. SC focuses on the range of [510 - 525] [5]. LPG - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG are okay, leading to a rebound in LPG [1]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is that the cost-side oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG improve marginally. Currently, the downstream chemical demand is rising, and the basis is at a high level, so the short-term upward momentum of LPG increases. As of July 28, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous period. In terms of cost and profit, as of July 28, the profit of PDH devices remained unchanged from the previous period, while the profit of alkylation devices decreased by 12.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. On the supply side, as of the week of July 25, the total LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.04 million tons compared with the previous week, and the civil LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.18 million tons. On the demand side, as of the week of July 25, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased by 1.35pct, 1.38pct, and 1.99pct respectively compared with the previous period. On the inventory side, as of the week of July 25, the refinery inventory increased by 0.4 million tons compared with the previous period, and the port inventory decreased by 16.59 million tons [6][7]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, after the geopolitical risks are released, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. Technically and in the short term, the daily line stabilizes and rebounds. It is recommended to sell put options. PG focuses on the range of [3950 - 4050] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure [1]. - **Basic logic**: The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The coal-based proportion of plastics is 20%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 14%. Most of the production capacity has been shut down for a long time or replaced. Attention should be paid to policy changes. The marginal improvement of agricultural film operations should be noted, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of raw material replenishment. The restart of devices increases, and the output is expected to increase this week. In the medium and long term, high production limits the rebound space [9][10]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. L focuses on the range of [7300 - 7450] [10][11]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The number of warehouse receipts increases, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The number of warehouse receipts increases. The coal-based proportion of PP is 19%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 8%. Most of them have been shut down for a long time or replaced. The demand fails to keep up, and the supply is under continuous pressure. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative exports increased by 21% year-on-year, and the export profit margin is relatively high in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future. In the medium and long term, the production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [13][14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. PP focuses on the range of [7050 - 7250] [14][15]. PVC - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The market sentiment cools down, and the price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously. The proportion of old PVC production capacity is 11%. Attention should be paid to the policy changes in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks. The 900,000 - ton devices of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development have started trial - runs one after another. The weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of warehouse receipt registration [18][19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. V focuses on the range of [5100 - 5300] [19][20]. PX - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are still positive factors under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity". Attention should be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips [1]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, there are not many changes in domestic and foreign devices. Some domestic devices are under maintenance or have reduced loads, while others have increased loads. In August, some devices are planned to increase loads or restart. Overseas device operating rates are temporarily stable. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread is positive. The gasoline cracking spread and the comparison between aromatics reforming and oil blending show that the cost of aromatics reforming is more cost - effective. The weekly output of PX has decreased slightly, and the international PX device operating rate has declined. The import volume in June is at a relatively low level in the past five years. On the demand side, there are some changes in PTA device maintenance and new device production. The PTA spot and futures processing fees have increased. The weekly operating rate and output of PTA remain stable and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. In general, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, the PX inventory is decreasing but still at a high level, the PXN is not low, the basis is strong, and there are still positive factors under the policy [21][22]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. PX focuses on the range of [6910 - 7030] [22][23]. PTA/PR - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. Recently, there are relatively few changes in device operations. Later, new PTA devices will be put into production, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. The demand side is seasonally weak. Stimulated by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The tight - balance expectation of TA fundamentals is loosening. In the short term, affected by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, there are positive opportunities on the supply side, but the TA processing fee is neutral. Be cautious about going long at low levels [1]. - **Basic logic**: The supply - side device changes are relatively small recently, but new PTA devices will be put into production later, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand side is seasonally weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The PTA fundamentals are expected to change from a tight balance to a looser situation. In the short term, there are positive factors on the supply side due to the policy, but the TA processing fee is neutral [24][25]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on dips. TA focuses on the range of [4800 - 4880] [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still lower than the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders continue to decline. In July, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the low inventory also supports the futures price. Recently, there is still positive sentiment under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", and the market is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still at a low level compared with the same period. Some domestic devices have restarted, while others are under maintenance or have reduced loads. Overseas, some devices have restarted, and some have maintenance plans. The weekly maintenance loss of MEG is at a high level in the same period in the past five years, the weekly operating rate has increased, and the weekly output has increased slightly. The demand side is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The polyester product inventory has decreased, but the terminal weaving is still weak. The social and port inventories of MEG are at a low level compared with the same period [26][27]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG focuses on the range of [4420 - 4580] [27][28]. Glass - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The policy expectation cools down, and the futures price fluctuates greatly [2]. - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, the market has been fermenting around the "anti - involution" policy expectation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be introduced, which has reignited market sentiment, and related varieties have continued to be strong, and the price of glass has risen significantly. At the same time, the strength of coal - related varieties has led to the expectation of cost increase. The fundamentals of glass have improved, the corporate profitability has improved, the output has increased slightly, especially the corporate inventory has continued to decline to a five - month low, and the comprehensive demand for glass in the off - season has remained resilient, significantly boosting market confidence. In the short term, the futures price is boosted by the macro - policy, and the continuous inventory reduction enhances market confidence. As long as the policy expectation logic is not falsified, the price center will continue to move up. In general, the futures price fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate and production capacity sectors, the futures price may continue to rise. If the demand remains weak, supply contraction is needed to have a strong upward space. In late July, it is a period of intensive macro - policies, the macro - sentiment repair is difficult to be falsified, but the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price fluctuates widely [30][31]. - **Strategy recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1170 - 1230] [31]. Soda Ash - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The exchange has issued a risk warning, and the price fluctuates widely [2]. - **Basic logic**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the trading atmosphere in the glass and coal markets has become stronger, which has boosted the industrial sentiment and driven up the futures price of soda ash. The inventory of soda ash plants has accumulated again, reaching a new historical high, but the market reaction has been calm, and the domestic spot market prices have remained stable with a slight decline. Recently, in the soda ash market, some devices are under maintenance while others are restarting. The overall supply has slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the soda ash output has increased. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has continued to accumulate, reaching a new historical high, and the market supply surplus pressure is heavy. The downstream support is general, with only terminal rigid - demand consumption. The short - term demand in the glass market is mediocre, some production lines in the photovoltaic glass industry have been cold - repaired, and the demand in the light - soda industry remains at a low level, maintaining a just - in - time procurement model, which has little impact on boosting the demand for soda ash. Recently, the soda ash futures price has been mainly affected by commodity sentiment fluctuations, and the fundamentals are difficult to provide sufficient driving force. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and technical operations [33][34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased month - on - month. Follow the sentiment of the coal and glass futures markets. The exchange has issued a risk warning, the price fluctuates greatly, and the price falls back under the pressure of the annual line. There is a short - term callback risk. SA focuses on the range of [1280 - 1350] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The upstream and downstream are linked, and the price corrects from a high level [2]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, the current average capacity utilization rate is 84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. Some previously reduced - production or shut - down devices in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China have gradually increased their loads, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to varying degrees. In Central China, the low price of liquid chlorine has led to losses for alkali plants, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Overall, the operation is at a high level, and with the expected commissioning of new production capacity, the supply tends to be saturated. In terms of demand, the production of the main downstream product, alumina, has increased, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in Zhejiang has been continuously low, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for rigid demand. In May, the export scale shrank, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. In terms of cost and profit, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the subsidy for liquid chlorine has decreased, and the overall profit of the chlor - alkali industry has shown an upward trend. Currently, the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. In general, the weekly supply - demand fundamentals have weakened, the device maintenance has returned, the macro - policy expectation has cooled down, the alumina futures price has corrected, the subsidy for liquid