1.2 总市值变动 2025年 度 末， 创业板总市值为17.83万亿元，较2024年末增长43.0%，增幅高于沪深证主板。 1.3 成交额对比 2 025年 度 创业板总成交额达114.22万亿元，单只个股平均成交额819.97亿元，高于上证主板、科创板和北证A股。 | | | 各板块平均成交额对比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 个股数量 | 期间总成交额 （万亿元） | 平均成交额 (亿元) | | 深证主板 | 1490 | 127.09 | 852.93 | | 创业板 | 1393 | 114.22 | 819.97 | | 上证主板 | 1699 | 134.28 | 790.33 | | 科创板 | 600 | 37.79 | 629.82 | | 北证A股 | 288 | 6.49 | 225.23 | | 数据来源: Wind | | | | 1.4 日均换手率对比 市场板块篇 1.1 50指数涨跌对比 2025年 度创业板50指数大涨57.45%，强于各板块50指数。 1.6 市净率对比 2 025年 度 末， 创业板市净率为4.35倍，高于沪深 ...

2025年，中资企业全球IPO市场显著回暖，发行数量与募资规模双双实现大幅增长。全年共有290家中资企业在全球主要资本市场完成上市，较2024年增 加61家；累计募资规模达3663.55亿元，同比大幅增长123.04%。从市场结构看，港股已成为中资企业最主要的融资平台，募资规模显著领先；A股市场 IPO节奏回暖，融资功能明显修复；海外市场发行数量保持稳定，但募资规模有所回落。整体来看，2025年中资企业IPO呈现数量回升、结构优化、港股 领跑的显著特征。 中资企业上市全景 1.1 中资企业全球IPO数量 Wind数据显示，2025年，中资企业全球市场共完成IPO上市290起（A股按网上发行日期，港股及美股市场按首发上市日期，下同），数量较2024年上升 61起。 1.2 中资企业全球IPO募资金额 2025年，中资企业全球IPO募资规模合计约3663.55亿元（人民币，下同），较2024年回升123.04%。 1.3 中资企业分市场 IPO 数量 2025 年，具体到各市场来看， A 股市场 IPO 上市 112 起，较 2024 年上升 10 起；港股市场 IPO 上市 110 起，较 2024 年上升 4 ...

【导读】景林、星石、重阳等知名私募展望2026年市场投资机会 中国基金报记者 孙越 景林资产总经理高云程致信投资者，总结去年投资的同时对2026年进行了展望。高云程认 为，AI对各行各业的渗透和改造才刚刚开始，2026年很可能是AI Agent真正普及的元年。 星石投资认为，2026年泛科技产业需求将保持旺盛，但传统行业价格趋势也有望迎来改善。 重阳投资对A股市场依然持积极态度，但提出投资者需要降低收益预期，在策略上立足于保住 2025年牛市的胜利果实，再寻找进一步扩大收益的机会。 景林资产高云程： 没有AI船票的企业，是要被边缘化的 "我们清晰地看到AI对各行各业的渗透和改造才刚刚开始。未来的巨头现在可能还是刚起步的 AI原生公司。"景林资产管理合伙人、基金经理高云程说。 他认为，2025年AI行业兴起始于DeepSeek的横空出世，让世界认识到中国在生成式人工智 能的竞争浪潮中是有竞争力和性价比优势的。除DeepSeek外，Qwen在开源模型中的全球采 用度也证明了即使在缺乏最先进GPU的条件下，国产模型依然可以利用现有可用资源让领先 者焦虑，也让全球有美国以外的选择。 高云程也指出，在AI突进式发展的同 ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.23 欧美股指成交显著放量 [Table_Authors] 陈菲(分析师) 全球股市立体投资策略周报 12 月第 3 期 | | 021-23187260 | | --- | --- | | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040127 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 短线外资回流规模创 11 月以来新高 2025.12.20 最近一周外资明显回流互联网 2025.12.16 恒指波幅创 2022 年以来新低 2025.12.16 每周海内外重要政策跟踪（25/12/14） 2025.12.14 日股盈利预期自 11 月以来显著上修 2025.12.08 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 上周发达市场表现更优，欧美股指成交大幅放量，港股卖空比例抬升、恒指波幅继 续下降。资金面上，联储 26 年降息路径不明，日央行 12 月加息落地。基本面上， 上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期持续上修。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 [Table_ ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Dividend+" index is experiencing upward fluctuations, with notable increases in various indices and ETFs, indicating a positive trend in value and cash flow-focused investments [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of the midday close, the Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 0.5%, the CSI Dividend Index increased by 0.3%, and the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index saw a 0.2% rise [1]. - The CSI Dividend Index consists of 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, with the banking, coal, and transportation sectors accounting for nearly 55% of the index [2]. - The Guozheng Value 100 Index is composed of 100 stocks with prominent value characteristics, with consumer discretionary, financial, and industrial sectors making up over 65% of the index [2]. Group 2: ETF Insights - The Value ETF (159263) has seen a net inflow of approximately 150 million yuan over the past six trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) tracks the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, which includes 100 stocks with high free cash flow levels, primarily from the industrial, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors [2]. Group 3: Historical Performance - The annualized return for the CSI Dividend Index from 2013 to 2023 is 11.0%, with fluctuations in annual performance, including a peak of 58% in 2014 and a decline of 16% in 2018 [3]. - The Guozheng Value 100 Index has shown consistent performance with annual returns of 22% in 2013 and 17% in subsequent years [3]. - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has experienced more volatility, with a significant decline of 57% in 2014, but an annualized return of 18.2% over the period [3].

中泰证券指出，富时中国A股自由现金流指数成份股集中分布在原材料、工业和可选消费行业，行业防 御属性相对较强。在震荡下跌市中，自由现金流指数跑赢全市场，展现出避险功能。从因子表现看，自 由现金流率与股息率呈显著正相关，现金流充裕的公司更倾向于稳定分红，规避了缺乏现金流支撑 的"价值陷阱"。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 投资者可关注现金流ETF（159399）。市场表现来看，标的指数富时现金流指数2016年至2024年连续9 年跑赢中证红利指数和沪深300指数。现金流ETF（159399）的标的指数聚焦大中市值，标的指数央国 企占比高于同类现金流指数，月月可评估分红，感兴趣的投资者或可持续关注。 ...

11月下旬以来，南向资金净流入持续萎缩，12月第二周甚至转为净流出。中金公司（601995）指出：不 排除公募新规超配港股，导致的调仓或资金流出，但这一因素仅在短期有影响，不应无限外推。 左侧布局港股一季度行情： 恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）跟踪恒生科技指数规模最大的ETF 恒生互联网ETF（513330.SH）聚焦互联网巨头，也是持有人户数最多的港股类ETF 港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）覆盖最广泛的港股科技细分行业，包含AI应用、创新药、机器人、 智能车等热门概念。 12月15日~12月19日，港股市场先抑后扬，恒生科技周涨幅-2.82%。南向资金周度重回净流入，净流入 合计达162亿元，扭转了上一周净流出的态势。 展望未来，中金公司指出：相较A股，港股对流动性更敏感，结构上对基本面更敏感。 真正支撑港股市场和估值弹性的是科技（尤其是AI）和消费。其中，港股科技偏应用、偏互联网平 台，即更多集中在AI的"应用层"而非"硬件层"，而当前AI硬件短期确定性高于应用；港股消费主要是可 选消费、新消费，情绪偏弱并缺乏催化。 华泰证券表示，当前（港股）市场依然在左侧布局区间，右侧拐点尚未清晰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential recovery of the A-share consumer sector and subjective long-only funds as macroeconomic policies shift towards supporting consumption, raising the question of whether 2026 will mark a transition from a downturn to an upturn for these investments [2]. Historical Review: Performance of Consumer Funds in "Good Years" - The consumer sector, primarily consisting of food and beverage, discretionary consumption, and service consumption, does not yield excess returns every year but shows concentrated returns under specific macroeconomic conditions [4]. - In favorable years (e.g., 2009-2010, 2016-2017, 2019-2020), consumer funds typically thrive when the economy transitions from a downturn to a recovery phase, with policies shifting from "stabilizing growth" to "expanding demand" and inflation rising from low levels [4][6]. Policy Logic: Why This Round of "Consumption" is Not Short-Term Stimulus - The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a long-term strategy for China's modernization, indicating a shift from investment-driven growth to a balanced approach of consumption and investment [8]. - The central economic work conference has set three key directions for consumption: moving from "subsidizing consumption" to "restoring consumption capacity," focusing on service consumption, and avoiding deflation while aiming for a stable inflation target [8]. 2026 Consumer Sector and Fund Dynamics - Based on historical experience, policy environment, and inflation signals, the consumer sector is expected to enter a phase of "moderate recovery rather than full-scale attack" in 2026, with a focus on restoring income expectations and expanding service consumption [11]. - The November CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, signaling marginal improvement in demand and alleviating deflation risks, which supports profit margin recovery and valuation stability for consumer companies [11][14]. - The investment opportunities in consumer funds for 2026 are likely to focus on "structural selection and long-term allocation" rather than short-term thematic plays, with an emphasis on service consumption and leading companies with brand and channel advantages [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations this week, with the consumer sector showing strength while technology and pharmaceutical sectors faced declines [1]. Index Performance - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index rose by 0.6% [1]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index fell by 2.0% [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 2.8% [1]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index dropped by 3.0% [1]. - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index declined by 3.1% [1]. Fund Flows - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (513040) saw inflows of 920 million and 270 million respectively during the week [1]. Valuation Metrics - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the indices are as follows: - Hang Seng New Economy Index: 24.5x [3]. - Hang Seng Technology Index: 22.9x [3]. - CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index: 31.9x [3]. - CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index: 24.6x [3]. - CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index: 17.2x [3]. Historical Performance - Year-to-date performance shows: - Hang Seng New Economy Index: +29.0% [8]. - Hang Seng Technology Index: +22.6% [8]. - CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index: +68.8% [8]. - CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index: +28.2% [8]. - CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index: +23.9% [8]. Sector Composition - The Hang Seng Technology Index consists of the largest 30 stocks related to technology, with over 90% from information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [6]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index includes 50 liquid and large-cap stocks from the healthcare sector, with over 90% weight in healthcare [6]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index comprises 30 leading internet companies, primarily from information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [6]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index includes 50 liquid and large-cap consumer stocks, with over 55% from consumer discretionary [6].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with a slight recovery in the afternoon, led by gains in the pharmaceutical, energy, and banking sectors, while technology stocks saw minor declines [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Index rose by 0.5%, while the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index fell by 0.4%, the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index decreased by 0.6%, the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 0.7%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index declined by 1.1% [1] - According to Wind data, as of yesterday, the net inflow of funds into the Hang Seng Technology ETP managed by Yi Fangda (513010) exceeded 2 billion yuan for the month, ranking among the top in its category [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng New Economy Index tracks the 50 largest stocks within the "new economy" sectors listed under the Hong Kong Stock Connect, primarily including information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare [3] - The index decreased by 0.6% today, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 24.6 times [3] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, which consists of the 30 largest stocks highly related to technology themes, with over 90% of the index comprising information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [4] - The index fell by 0.7% today, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 23.0 times [4] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Index, which is composed of 50 highly liquid and large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector, accounting for over 90% of the index [6] - The index rose by 0.5% today, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 31.8 times [6] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, which has seen a decline of 1.1% today, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 24.8 times [8]