Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market shows resilience with the Hang Seng Index up 0.78%, driven by strong performance in technology and consumer sectors, despite rising global macro risks and trade tensions [1] Market Performance - As of July 8, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.78%, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.29%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.84% [1] - Popular ETFs such as the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) saw increases of nearly 2% and 1.5%, respectively [1] Economic Outlook - Global macro risks are rising, influenced by trade tensions, particularly threats from Trump regarding tariffs on Japan, and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - The U.S. job market remains strong, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1] - China's economic sentiment showed an overall recovery in June, indicating potential for growth [1] Investment Recommendations - The technology sector is highlighted as having significant investment opportunities due to strong policy support, leading profit growth, and relatively low historical valuations [1] - The consumer sector is expected to see improved performance driven by domestic consumption policies, with a focus on the pharmaceutical and discretionary consumption industries [1] - High dividend stocks are recommended for stable returns amidst domestic and international uncertainties [1] Focus Areas - Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) is noted for packaging e-commerce and new consumption, covering areas that are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [1] - Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets and leading technology firms that are also less represented in A-shares [1]

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market mostly declined, with the Consumer Discretionary ETF dropping over 1%, the Semiconductor ETF falling nearly 1%, and the Biotechnology Index ETF decreasing by 0.7% [1] ETF Performance - Consumer Discretionary ETF (US XLY) current price: $218.19, down by $3.02 (-1.37%), with a trading volume of 115,000 shares and a total market value of $27.405 billion, year-to-date performance down by 2.27% [2] - Semiconductor ETF (US SMH) current price: $281.22, down by $2.40 (-0.85%), with a trading volume of 229,900 shares and a total market value of $3.324 billion, year-to-date performance up by 16.13% [2] - Biotechnology Index ETF (US IBB) current price: $129.11, down by $0.89 (-0.68%), with a trading volume of 22,713 shares and a total market value of $10.251 billion, year-to-date performance down by 2.26% [2] - Energy ETF (US XLE) current price: $86.56, down by $0.47 (-0.54%), with a trading volume of 1.4898 million shares and a total market value of $21.677 billion, year-to-date performance up by 2.67% [2] - Technology Sector ETF (US XLK) current price: $255.63, down by $1.33 (-0.52%), with a trading volume of 203,700 shares and a total market value of $81.304 billion, year-to-date performance up by 10.31% [2] - Healthcare ETF (US XLV) current price: $134.89, down by $0.61 (-0.45%), with a trading volume of 353,700 shares and a total market value of $25.813 billion, year-to-date performance down by 1.10% [2] - Global Technology ETF (US IXN) current price: $92.93, down by $0.40 (-0.43%), with a trading volume of 7,225 shares and a total market value of $1.301 billion, year-to-date performance up by 9.86% [2] - Consumer Staples ETF (US XLP) current price: $81.87, down by $0.31 (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 847,500 shares and a total market value of $13.854 billion, year-to-date performance up by 5.42% [2] - Internet ETF (US FDN) current price: $268.40, down by $0.62 (-0.23%), with a trading volume of 5,447 shares and a total market value of $178.22 billion, year-to-date performance up by 10.38% [2] - Utilities ETF (US XLU) current price: $81.75, down by $0.09 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 672,400 shares and a total market value of $11.868 billion, year-to-date performance up by 9.53% [2] - Global Airlines ETF (US JETS) current price: $24.13, up by $0.01 (+0.03%), with a trading volume of 31,918 shares and a total market value of $76.0004 million, year-to-date performance down by 4.82% [2] - Banking ETF (US KBE) current price: $58.86, up by $0.04 (+0.07%), with a trading volume of 62,373 shares and a total market value of $4.556 billion, year-to-date performance up by 7.60% [2] - Financials ETF (US XLF) current price: $53.24, up by $0.05 (+0.09%), with a trading volume of 1.5935 million shares and a total market value of $59.259 billion, year-to-date performance up by 10.94% [2] - Regional Banks ETF (US KRE) current price: $63.36, up by $0.13 (+0.21%), with a trading volume of 282,500 shares and a total market value of $5.288 billion, year-to-date performance up by 6.41% [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index recording semi-annual returns of 20% and 18.7% respectively, ranking among the top global indices [1] - The rebound in the Hong Kong stock market is primarily driven by a decrease in risk premium, while contributions from risk-free interest rates and fundamental earnings improvement are relatively limited [1] - Current favorable conditions for the Hong Kong stock market include a reduction in external environmental disturbances, a shift in Trump's policy focus from tariffs to tax cuts, and a supportive liquidity environment for capital allocation [1] Group 2 - The technology sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, with foreign capital showing sustained confidence through increased allocations to the information technology sector [2] - The adjustment in the technology sector's valuation narrative has led to a moderate level of crowding, indicating potential for upward elasticity and positioning it as a key driver for the next market rally [2] - There is a notable rotation of southbound capital across various sectors, with recent focus shifting towards healthcare and financial sectors, reflecting market interest in high-growth sectors and defensive value in high-dividend stocks [2] Group 3 - The short-selling landscape shows high levels of short interest in cyclical and consumer sectors, while the technology sector is experiencing a convergence of long and short positions [3] - The consumer sector is witnessing a clear divergence, with essential consumption remaining stable while discretionary consumption has seen increased short-selling activity [3] - The concentration of short-selling in the information technology sector is decreasing, supported by continued foreign investment and appropriate allocation from southbound capital [3]

策略研究 · 周度报告 港股板块轮动加速,行情是否延续? 2025 年 07 月 06 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望:时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07, 关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读："持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03, 港股 2025 年二季度投资展望: 从估值修 复到盈利兑现 2025-04-02, 2025 年二季度 A 股投资展望: 风格切换, 均衡配置 2025-03-23, 港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? ...

策略研究 · 周度报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 港股板块轮动加速,行情是否延续? 中国银河证券|CGS 策略研究 · 周度报告 目录 Catalog | 一、 本周港股市场回顾 | | --- | | (一) 指数涨跌幅. | | (二) 资金流动 . | | (三) 估值与风险溢价 | | 1 í 港股市场投资展望 . | | 三、 风险提示… | 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 2025-06-22, 2025 年港股中期投资展望:时移世易, 见机而作 2025-06-10,稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化? 2025-05-07, 关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读："持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面? 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? 2 ...

Group 1 - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market experienced an overall increase, with regional bank ETFs rising by 1.59%, global airline ETFs by 1.51%, and bank ETFs by 1.27% [1][2] Group 2 - Regional bank ETF (KRE) is currently priced at $63.51, with a gain of $0.99 (+1.59%) and a total market value of $5.3 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 6.66% [2] - Global airline ETF (JETS) is priced at $24.15, up by $0.36 (+1.51%), with a market value of $760.725 million, showing a year-to-date decline of 4.73% [2] - Bank ETF (KBE) is trading at $59.00, gaining $0.74 (+1.27%), with a market capitalization of $4.567 billion and a year-to-date increase of 7.86% [2]

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US experienced a decline, with the global airline industry ETF down by 0.9%, the healthcare ETF down by 0.72%, and the utilities ETF down by 0.67% [1] Industry Performance - The global airline industry ETF is priced at $23.22, reflecting a decrease of $0.21 or 0.90% with a trading volume of 43,489 shares and a total market value of $73.14 million, showing an 8.40% decline year-to-date [2] - The healthcare ETF is priced at $135.73, down by $0.98 or 0.72%, with a trading volume of 676,100 shares and a total market value of $259.74 billion, indicating a year-to-date decrease of 0.48% [2] - The utilities ETF is priced at $81.39, down by $0.55 or 0.67%, with a trading volume of 942,700 shares and a total market value of $11.81 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 9.05% [2] - The financial sector ETF is priced at $52.48, down by $0.18 or 0.34%, with a trading volume of 2.23 million shares and a total market value of $584.13 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 9.35% [2] - The technology sector ETF is priced at $250.50, down by $0.47 or 0.19%, with a trading volume of 254,600 shares and a total market value of $796.73 billion, indicating a year-to-date increase of 8.10% [2] - The energy sector ETF is priced at $85.78, up by $0.32 or 0.37%, with a trading volume of 1.09 million shares and a total market value of $21.48 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 1.74% [2]

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs mostly declined, with the Consumer Discretionary ETF down approximately 1%, the Biotechnology Index ETF down 0.55%, and the Energy ETF down 0.5% [1] Industry Performance - Consumer Discretionary ETF (US XLY) current price: $215.37, down $1.96 (-0.90%), with a trading volume of 86,452 shares and a total market value of $27.051 billion, down 3.53% year-to-date [2] - Biotechnology Index ETF (US IBB) current price: $125.81, down $0.70 (-0.55%), with a trading volume of 54,019 shares and a total market value of $9.989 billion, down 4.76% year-to-date [2] - Energy ETF (US XLE) current price: $84.39, down $0.42 (-0.50%), with a trading volume of 1.0193 million shares and a total market value of $21.133 billion, up 0.09% year-to-date [2] - Semiconductor ETF (US SMH) current price: $277.65, down $1.23 (-0.44%), with a trading volume of 248,700 shares and a total market value of $3.282 billion, up 14.65% year-to-date [2] - Internet Index ETF (US FDN) current price: $268.48, down $0.85 (-0.31%), with a trading volume of 2,192 shares and a total market value of $17.827 billion, up 10.41% year-to-date [2] - Global Technology ETF (US IXN) current price: $92.09, down $0.25 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 3,645 shares and a total market value of $1.289 billion, up 8.87% year-to-date [2] - Banking ETF (US KBE) current price: $55.67, down $0.09 (-0.16%), with a trading volume of 32,613 shares and a total market value of $4.309 billion, up 1.77% year-to-date [2] - Technology Sector ETF (US XLK) current price: $252.89, down $0.34 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 158,800 shares and a total market value of $804.33 billion, up 9.13% year-to-date [2] - Healthcare ETF (US XLV) current price: $134.61, down $0.18 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 326,900 shares and a total market value of $25.760 billion, down 1.30% year-to-date [2] - Financials ETF (US XLF) current price: $52.31, down $0.06 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 890,000 shares and a total market value of $58.223 billion, up 9.00% year-to-date [2] - Global Airlines ETF (US JETS) current price: $22.95, down $0.02 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 42,334 shares and a total market value of $72.293 million, down 9.47% year-to-date [2] - Utilities ETF (US XLU) current price: $81.60, down $0.06 (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 595,900 shares and a total market value of $11.846 billion, up 9.33% year-to-date [2] - Regional Banks ETF (US KRE) current price: $59.42, up $0.03 (+0.05%), with a trading volume of 263,600 shares and a total market value of $4.959 billion, down 0.20% year-to-date [2] - Consumer Staples ETF (US XLP) current price: $81.33, up $0.36 (+0.44%), with a trading volume of 459,700 shares and a total market value of $137.63 million [2]

研究报告 Research Report 1 Jul 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 经济预测：预计东南亚各国 2H25 经济预计将维持温和增长，整体 增速在 4%至 5%之间。随着通胀普遍回落至 2%–3%，各国央行有更 多政策操作空间。越南若成功避免美国高关税，3Q25 将以制造业 和基建为支撑；菲律宾内需与汇款拉动明显；泰国受消费疲软与出 口承压拖累，全年增速承压；新加坡则因外部需求疲弱面临更大压 力。整体来看，下半年东南亚经济仍将依靠内需恢复、基建投资与 旅游复苏支撑，但外部风险如中美贸易摩擦、全球需求放缓等仍是 主要不确定因素。亚洲开发银行预计 2025 年东盟增长将维持在 4.7%左右，2026 年同样约 4.7％，而国际货币基金组织下调亚太整 体增速至 3.9％，指出贸易摩擦等因素对区域构成压力。 消费：消费指标表现各异。2025 年 5 月印尼消费者信心指数为 117.50，创下自 2022 年 9 月以来的新低。2025 年 4 月马来食品饮 料批发指数为 165.2，同比增长 5.5%；零售板块食品饮料指 ...

2025年上半年，中资企业上市数量较去年下半年小幅减少，但募资金额接近1400亿元人民 币，增长显著。值得注意的是，港股市场已经成为中资企业IPO主要融资渠道。 中资企业全球市场IPO 1.1 中资企业全球IPO数量 Wind数据显示，2025年上半年，中资企业全球市场共完成IPO上市129起（A股按网上发行日 期，港股及美股市场按首发上市日期，下同），数量较2024年同期增加34起。 1.2 中资企业全球IPO募资金额 2025年上半年， 中资企业全球IPO募资规模合计约1398.93亿元（人民币，下同），较2024 年同期上涨143.30%。 1.3 中资企业分市场IPO数量 具体到各市场来看，A股市场IPO上市48起，较2024年同期增加5起；港股市场IPO上市41 起，较2024年同期增加14起；海外市场完成IPO上市40起，较2024年同期增加16起。 1.4 中资企业分市场IPO募资金额 从IPO募集资金情况看，A股市场中资企业募集资金380.02亿元，较2024年同期上涨 25.53%；港股市场中资企业首发募集资金956.80亿元，较2024年同期上涨738.75%；海外 市场中资企业首发募集资 ...