Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China shows signs of improvement, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June rising to 49.7%, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continuous upward trend for two consecutive months [1] Manufacturing Sector Summary - The PMI for the equipment manufacturing industry reached 51.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, with both production and new orders indices above 53% [5] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, remaining stable compared to last month, with production and new orders indices around 52% [5] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4%, a rise of 0.2 percentage points, reflecting steady growth [7] - The basic raw materials industry PMI rose by 0.8 percentage points, ending a three-month decline [7] Enterprise Type Analysis - Large enterprises continued to expand, with their PMI at 51.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating significant support for the overall manufacturing sector [9] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points, ending a two-month downward trend, with new orders index rising over 4 percentage points, showing a notable recovery in demand [11] Non-Manufacturing Sector Summary - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion [11] - The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, showing stability in the sector [11] - The construction industry business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in activity levels [11] - The civil engineering construction index was at 56.7%, remaining above 55% for three consecutive months, suggesting rapid progress in infrastructure projects [11] - Investment-related activities in the construction sector have shown significant recovery, supported by the expansion of special bond investments [11]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-06-30 工企盈利承压 ——中国盈利系列十一 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 6 月 27 日，国家统计局数据显示，1—5 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，同比下降 1.1%。 核心观点 ■ 营收压力仍存 总量：需求与价格双弱，库存压力仍存。2025年 1-5月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额 2.72 万亿元，同比下降 1.1%（较 1-4 月的+1.4%由正转负），主要受三重压力影 响：一是需求与价格双弱，PPI累计同比下跌 3.3%挤压毛利空间，叠加每百元营收成本 同比增加 0.24 元，进一步压缩利润；二是短期基数效应，投资收益等非经营性收益的 高基数下拉利润增速1.7个百分点；三是单月加速下滑，工业企业同比增速从4月的3% 大幅转负至 5 月的-9.1%，反映内需不足与"抢出口"效应消退的冲击。积极信号方面， 营业收入同比增长 2.7%，毛利润增长 1.1%，为后续盈利修复提供基础；装备制造 ...

Economic Overview - In April 2025, Canada's real GDP decreased by 0.1%, ending the growth trend observed in March [1] - The goods-producing sector experienced an overall decline of 0.6%, with manufacturing being a significant drag, falling by 1.9% [1] - Durable and non-durable goods manufacturing dropped by 2.2% and 1.6% respectively, indicating negative impacts from tariff uncertainties on transportation equipment manufacturing and the food and oil industries [1] Service Sector Performance - The service-producing sector saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with public administration, finance and insurance, and arts and entertainment contributing to this growth [2] - The finance and insurance sector grew by 0.7%, marking the largest increase since August 2024, driven by high-frequency trading activities due to U.S. tariff announcements [2] - The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector achieved a growth of 2.8%, primarily due to increased attendance at NHL playoff games in Canada [2] Trade and Resource Sector Insights - The wholesale trade sector declined by 1.9%, significantly impacted by reduced imports and exports in motor vehicles and parts [7] - In the resource sector, while the oil and gas extraction sub-sector was affected by decreased natural gas and crude oil production, oil and gas support activities saw an increase due to rising drilling activities [7] Government Financials - In Q1 2025, the total deficit for all levels of government in Canada was CAD 12.4 billion, a reduction of CAD 19.6 billion compared to the same period last year [7] - The federal government significantly reduced its deficit to CAD 8.7 billion, while provincial and territorial governments faced pressures from increased spending and reduced revenues [7] Future Economic Outlook - The real GDP is expected to continue declining by 0.1% in May 2025, indicating challenges for short-term economic growth [7] - Growth in real estate rental activities may partially offset declines in other sectors [7] - The economic situation reflects the impact of global trade tensions on Canada's manufacturing and export-oriented industries, while also highlighting the supportive role of the service sector and other areas in economic growth [7]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 26 Jun 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 产能和库存周期有望触底回升，企业盈利修复动能增强 Capacity and Inventory Cycle to Bottom Out and Recover; Momentum of Enterprise Profit Recovery Strengthens 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA 周林泓 Amber Zhou jh.li@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 具体来看，产能周期下游已率先临近拐点，正在向上传导。上游产能利用率仍在下行，其中采矿业产能去化仍需 时间、制造业上游去产能进入后期；中游产能周期分化，总体产能利用率宽幅波动，子行业超半数处于产能去化 后期及产能企稳期；下游产能利用率先前稳步回升一年有余，一季度回落，各子行业基本全 ...

Core Insights - Industrial production in May showed a robust growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in the added value of large-scale industries, and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% after seasonal adjustments [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector significantly contributed to industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, accounting for 54.3% of the total industrial production growth [2] - High-tech manufacturing continued to drive quality development, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in added value, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall industrial growth [3] Industrial Production Overview - In May, 35 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 85.4% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to May, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.3% year-on-year [1] Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The equipment manufacturing sector's added value growth of 9.0% was higher than the overall industrial growth by 3.2 percentage points, maintaining a share of 36.7% of total industrial output [2] - The automotive industry experienced a significant increase of 11.6% in added value, with other sectors like aerospace and electrical machinery also showing strong growth [2] Consumer Goods Manufacturing - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with 10 out of 13 major categories reporting growth [2] - Notable growth was observed in sectors such as cultural and educational products, chemical fibers, and agricultural by-products, with respective increases of 10.1%, 6.1%, and 7.6% [2] High-Tech and Intelligent Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing's added value increased by 8.6%, with significant contributions from sectors like aircraft manufacturing and electronic components [3] - The digital product manufacturing sector also showed strong growth, with a 9.1% increase in added value, driven by smart devices and electronic components [3] Green Manufacturing Trends - The production of new energy vehicles and related products saw remarkable growth, with increases of 31.7% for vehicles and 52.5% for lithium-ion batteries [3] - The supply of green materials also improved, with high-performance chemical fibers increasing by 92.2% [3] Policy Impact - The "two new" policies have effectively stimulated consumption, leading to significant growth in sectors such as motor manufacturing and shipbuilding [4] - The implementation of vehicle replacement subsidies contributed to an 11.3% increase in automotive production [4]

国家统计局6月16日发布数据显示，5月，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，社会消费品零售总 额同比增长6.4%。1至5月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长3.7%。 此外，付凌晖表示，5月，假日消费态势良好，文旅休闲、出行服务、聚会就餐等消费较快增长。消费 新动能持续释放，市场供给不断丰富，消费环境逐步优化，居民高品质生活需求增加，带动相关商品和 服务销售较快增长。今年以来，我国逐步扩大入境免签国家范围，促进了人员往来，也活跃了消费市 场。 "总体看，5月，消费市场延续向好发展势头。但也要看到，居民消费能力和消费意愿有待提升，消费增 长的内生动力仍待增强。"袁彦表示，下阶段，要加快实施提振消费专项行动，加强促消费政策协同联 动，培育壮大消费新场景和新动能，推动消费市场持续回升向好。 付凌晖表示，从未来发展看，直播带货、即时零售等消费新业态新模式日益成熟，银发经济、首发经 济、低空经济等快速发展，消费经济新的增长点不断涌现。 工业生产保持较快增长 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，5月，随着政策组合效应持续释放，稳经济促发展效果显现，国民 经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，充分展现了我国经济的韧性和活 ...

Wind统计数据显示，截至6月16日收盘，共计8家公司率先预告了公司今年上半年的经营表现。 从预测类型来看，4家公司预计"续盈"，3家公司预计"略增"；1家公司预计"略减"。 | 证券代码 | 名称 | 预告日期 | ↓ 预警类型 · 预警摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301590.SZ | ! 优优绿能 | 2025-05-15 | 绿猫 | 净利润:约1.18亿元~1.42亿元,增长-15.19% ~2.05% | | 301595.SZ | 太力科技 | 2025-05-16 | 续篇 | 净利润:约4524万元~5542万元,增长-10.71%~7.04% | | 603382.SH | : C海阳 | : 2025-05-23 | 续营 | 净利润:约7600万元~8600万元,增长-2.05%~10.83% | | 688775.SH | ! C影石 | 2025-05-22 | 续营 | 净利润:约4.94亿元~5.83亿元,增长-4.65%~12.49% | | 001390.SZ | :古麒绒材 | 2025-05-09 | : 略信 | ...

今年以来，在一系列稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期等更加积极有为的宏观政策实施下，制造业和非 制造业景气水平均持续改善，新动能持续向好，企业对市场发展的信心保持稳定。 （作者系中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所研究员） （文章来源：经济日报） 也要看到，外部环境依然复杂严峻，外贸回稳仍有不确定性，需求不足等制约因素仍然存在，企业效益 稳步恢复的基础还需继续巩固。未来，要进一步加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础。 持续实施各项稳经济政策措施。多措并举扩大内需，稳住国内基本盘，做强国内大循环。用好用足更加 积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。创设新 的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。加大资金 支持力度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消 费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。 持续巩固和提升企业效益。培育壮大新质生产力，积极打造一批新兴支柱产业。推动科技创新和产业创 新融合发展，加快传统产业转型升级，坚持标准引领，规范竞争秩序。持续用力推进关键核心技术攻 关，创新推出债券市场的"科 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025 年 06 月 12 日 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 工企盈利视角看中报利润 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 系 核心观点：2024 年"924"政策转向后，市场风险偏好显著改善，增量资金入场和 风险偏好改善推动市场活跃度攀升，"牛市思维"主导下，部分受益于估值修复的 行业率先回暖。进入 2025 年，宏观经济呈现"见龙在田"的企稳特征，企业盈利 也开始筑底回升。然而，当前内外部宏观环境依然复杂，不确定性犹存，导致部分 资产波动率显著提升。在这一背景下，叠加绝对收益思维主导和投资者对均衡稳健 配置的诉求，市场对基本面的关注度开始提升。鉴于工业企业利润数据与上市公司 盈利间存在较强的联动性，我们在本篇报告中从宏观视角出发，结合最新的工业企 业利润情况，对即将到来的 A 股非金融上市公司中报盈利趋势进行前瞻性讨论。 规上工业企业盈利现状 ① ...

也要看到，目前仍面临着一些亟待解决的问题，比如不同地区和领域间"两新"工作不够平衡，补贴申领 的便捷程度和效率等尚有提升空间，项目执行中依然存在"先涨价后打折"、骗补套补等违法违规行为， 等等。对此，要综合施策尽快予以化解，避免影响政策效果。 完善组织协调机制。各级政府及相关部门要按照职责分工，进一步强化责任意识，压实主体责任，确 保"两新"工作顺利高效推进。其中，国家发展改革委、财政部要加强统筹协调和跟踪调度，商务部、交 通运输部、农业农村部等部门要按照职责分工组织地方认真落实好各自分管领域的相关政策，地方各级 政府要履行好主体责任，强化协调推进，持续放大政策效应。健全和完善"两新"部际协调机制，定期或 不定期围绕"两新"事宜进行磋商、决策等，不断强化统筹推进和跟踪调度，并根据形势需要适时推出更 多支持政策。 今年以来，按照中央经济工作会议部署，我国加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，继 续有力支撑扩消费、稳投资、促转型、惠民生，政策效应不断显现。 一方面，激发消费活力效果显著。一季度，在汽车、家电、手机、电动自行车、家装等消费品以旧换新 政策带动下，全国限额以上单位通信器材类、家用电器和音像器 ...