消费品制造业

Search documents
抢先看!8公司率先预告半年度业绩
证券时报· 2025-06-16 10:32
Wind统计数据显示,截至6月16日收盘,共计8家公司率先预告了公司今年上半年的经营表现。 从预测类型来看,4家公司预计"续盈",3家公司预计"略增";1家公司预计"略减"。 | 证券代码 | 名称 | 预告日期 | ↓ 预警类型 · 预警摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301590.SZ | ! 优优绿能 | 2025-05-15 | 绿猫 | 净利润:约1.18亿元~1.42亿元,增长-15.19% ~2.05% | | 301595.SZ | 太力科技 | 2025-05-16 | 续篇 | 净利润:约4524万元~5542万元,增长-10.71%~7.04% | | 603382.SH | : C海阳 | : 2025-05-23 | 续营 | 净利润:约7600万元~8600万元,增长-2.05%~10.83% | | 688775.SH | ! C影石 | 2025-05-22 | 续营 | 净利润:约4.94亿元~5.83亿元,增长-4.65%~12.49% | | 001390.SZ | :古麒绒材 | 2025-05-09 | : 略信 | ...
持续放大宏观政策效能
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-13 20:57
今年以来,在一系列稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期等更加积极有为的宏观政策实施下,制造业和非 制造业景气水平均持续改善,新动能持续向好,企业对市场发展的信心保持稳定。 (作者系中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所研究员) (文章来源:经济日报) 也要看到,外部环境依然复杂严峻,外贸回稳仍有不确定性,需求不足等制约因素仍然存在,企业效益 稳步恢复的基础还需继续巩固。未来,要进一步加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础。 持续实施各项稳经济政策措施。多措并举扩大内需,稳住国内基本盘,做强国内大循环。用好用足更加 积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。创设新 的结构性货币政策工具,设立新型政策性金融工具,支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。加大资金 支持力度,扩围提质实施"两新"政策,加力实施"两重"建设。提高中低收入群体收入,大力发展服务消 费,增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。 持续巩固和提升企业效益。培育壮大新质生产力,积极打造一批新兴支柱产业。推动科技创新和产业创 新融合发展,加快传统产业转型升级,坚持标准引领,规范竞争秩序。持续用力推进关键核心技术攻 关,创新推出债券市场的"科 ...
持续释放“两新”政策效能
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-11 22:15
也要看到,目前仍面临着一些亟待解决的问题,比如不同地区和领域间"两新"工作不够平衡,补贴申领 的便捷程度和效率等尚有提升空间,项目执行中依然存在"先涨价后打折"、骗补套补等违法违规行为, 等等。对此,要综合施策尽快予以化解,避免影响政策效果。 完善组织协调机制。各级政府及相关部门要按照职责分工,进一步强化责任意识,压实主体责任,确 保"两新"工作顺利高效推进。其中,国家发展改革委、财政部要加强统筹协调和跟踪调度,商务部、交 通运输部、农业农村部等部门要按照职责分工组织地方认真落实好各自分管领域的相关政策,地方各级 政府要履行好主体责任,强化协调推进,持续放大政策效应。健全和完善"两新"部际协调机制,定期或 不定期围绕"两新"事宜进行磋商、决策等,不断强化统筹推进和跟踪调度,并根据形势需要适时推出更 多支持政策。 今年以来,按照中央经济工作会议部署,我国加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策,继 续有力支撑扩消费、稳投资、促转型、惠民生,政策效应不断显现。 一方面,激发消费活力效果显著。一季度,在汽车、家电、手机、电动自行车、家装等消费品以旧换新 政策带动下,全国限额以上单位通信器材类、家用电器和音像器 ...
什么是关税不确定性下的最佳决策?
2025-06-04 01:50
什么是关税不确定性下的最佳决策?20250602 摘要 2025 年一季度半钢胎开工率虽高于去年同期,但 4 月对等关税落地后, 开工率降至去年水平,5 月汽车零部件关税出台后进一步下滑,表明关 税负面影响持续显现,对轮胎行业产生直接冲击。 美国消费者受关税不确定性影响,3 月耐用品订单激增后补库趋缓,4 月同比增速降至年内最低,显示消费行为趋于谨慎,企业应关注库存管 理和需求变化,及时调整生产和销售策略。 一季度美国进口量占消费支出比例升至近 13%,工业品进口同比增长 53%,能源进口未明显增长,黄金囤积量大,消费品进口增加以规避关 税,汽车及零部件进口负增长,反映全球贸易格局变化。 国内经济 5 月提前进入淡季,沥青、水泥磨机开工率等数据回落,螺纹 钢需求下降,基建相关行业表现疲软,但国债和新增专用债发行或将推 动基建发展,需关注政策支持力度。 二季度以来,切片开工率下滑,PTA 价格低位震荡,一手房销售回升至 去年同期水平,但二手房市场表现不佳,螺纹钢期货价格跌破 3,000 元/ 吨,表明经济下行压力加大,企业应谨慎应对。 Q&A 美国近期关税政策的变化对中国出口和美国进口分别意味着什么? 美国近期 ...
显微镜下的中国经济(2025年第20期):如何看待5月宏观经济形势
CMS· 2025-06-03 09:34
显微镜下的中国经济(2025 年第 20 期) 频率:每周 目前看,5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定,需求方面出口和消费相对较好,房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台,央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...
【广发宏观郭磊】经济呈现哪些基本特征:5月PMI的整体分析
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-06-02 10:45
Core Viewpoint - The May PMI data indicates a series of characteristics reflecting a weak but stabilizing economy, with improvements driven by eased tariffs and a package of financial policies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" (EPMI, BCI, PMI) show consistent upward trends, suggesting a recovery in May after a downturn in April due to tariff disruptions [1][4]. - The EPMI increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, which is still the third lowest reading for the same period historically [6][7]. - The BCI rose slightly by 0.2 points to 50.3, remaining below last year's level, indicating mixed microeconomic conditions [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 points to 49.5, still below the neutral level of 50, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3 [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector leads in absolute economic performance, followed by downstream consumer goods, while upstream raw materials lag behind [8][9]. - The May equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2, indicating positive trends in these sectors [9][10]. Group 3: Export and Demand - New export orders rose significantly by 2.8 points, reflecting a recovery in exports following the joint statement from the US and Japan [15][16]. - The production index increased to 50.7, and the purchasing volume index rose to 47.6, indicating a rebound in production and procurement activities [17]. Group 4: Price Trends and Expectations - Price indicators have not fully stabilized, but the downward pressure has eased, with the purchasing price index slightly declining to 46.9 [17][18]. - Microeconomic expectations have improved, with the production activity expectation index rising to 52.5, although still below March levels [19][20]. - The finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management by companies [22]. Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction sector remains weak, with the building PMI at 51.0, down from 51.9, indicating that real estate construction is a major drag on overall economic performance [23][24].
价格回落势头渐止——5月PMI数据解读
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-06-01 02:15
宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号:S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何?——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张,价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离,经济景气如何?— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...
2025年5月PMI点评:“抢出口”带动制造业PMI回暖
EBSCN· 2025-05-31 14:31
Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]
5月PMI:经济呈现回稳态势,关注外贸修复弹性
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-31 13:20
Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]
价格回落势头渐止——5月PMI数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-31 08:13
报 告 正 文 PMI 表现如何? 5 月全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.5% ,升至近五年同期中位数附近,较上月上行 0.5 个百分点。 主要分项较上月多有回升,其中 供给相对需求增幅更大,外需相对内需改善更明显 ;大企业升至线上运行, 原材料价格和产成品价格稳中略降。本月制造业 PMI 上行主要来自于 供需两端的同步改善 ,而生产回暖是其 回升的最大动力, 主因中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和 ,带动外需回暖,新出口订单低位反弹,而抢出口同步带动 生产改善 。 此外,有三点值得关注 : 一是 从行业来看, 新动能市场需求增长较为突出 。装备制造业和高技术制造业的 新订单指数均在 52% 以上;消费品制造业需求也稳定上升,新出口订单指数上升超过 6 个百分点至扩张区间 。二是价格指数降幅显著收窄 。原材料价格和产成品价格仅较上月小幅下降 0.1 个百分点,环比降幅均较上 月明显收窄 。三是供大于求局面仍然存在 ,新订单和生产指数差距有所扩大,后续仍待稳增长政策加码提振 内需 。 制造业 PMI 线下回升 。本月全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.5% ,较上月上行 0.5 个百分点。主要分项多有回升, 生产升至线上,新订 ...