Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, marking two consecutive months of growth [1][3] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50%, indicating stable overall operations, while the comprehensive PMI output index remained in expansion [1][6] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, outperforming the same period last year, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The production index, new orders index, and purchasing volume index showed signs of recovery, while order indices remained below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand challenges [3][4] - The construction sector's business activity index remained below 50%, indicating weak growth in investment-related construction activities [7] - The overall economic outlook for the fourth quarter is positive, driven by macroeconomic policy support, holiday consumption, and project launches [8][10] Group 3 - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in the third quarter was 49.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [9] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stable operations with an average business activity index of 50.1% in the third quarter [9] - Expectations for the fourth quarter are optimistic, with manufacturing enterprises showing increased confidence in production activities [10]

9月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国采购经理指数显示，9月份制 造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.8%，较8月上升0.4个百分点，实现连续两个月回升；非制造业 商务活动指数为50%，处于临界点，整体运行平稳；综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 9月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为50%，环比下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点。中国物流与采购联合会 副会长何辉认为，9月份，商务活动指数较上月下降，但仍稳定在50%，与去年同期持平，显示非制造 业经营活动保持平稳。 分析指出，生产端和企业采购活动显现恢复迹象，稳增长政策效果正进一步显现。同期，非制造业运行 保持平稳，其中金融业商务活动指数升至60%以上，且好于去年同期，为经济回升提供了有利的金融环 境。不过，分析也指出，市场需求不足仍是当前核心挑战，制造业订单类指数均处于荣枯线以下，同时 建筑业活动偏弱，反映出经济复苏的基础尚需加固。展望四季度，在宏观政策加力，节假日消费、项目 发力及企业乐观预期的共同推动下，宏观经济有望继续向好回升。 制造业PMI连续两个月上升 9月份制造业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续两个月上升。中 ...

9月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国采购经理指数显示，9月份制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.8%，较8月上 升0.4个百分点，实现连续两个月回升；非制造业商务活动指数为50%，处于临界点，整体运行平稳；综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬强调，尽管两个价格指数均较上月有所下降，但分行业来看，市场价格运行走势有所分化。 具体来看，装备制造业和消费品制造业购进价格指数都在50%以上，且环比上升，出厂价格指数虽都在50%以下，但环比上升，显示装备制造业和消费品制 造业原材料购进价格都加快上升，产成品销售价格降势收窄。高技术制造业购进价格指数在扩张区间内环比上升，出厂价格指数与上月持平，显示高技术制 造业原材料购进价格加快上升，产品销售价格稳定。 "压力较大的是基础原材料行业。"文韬指出，由于房地产投资相对低迷以及国外大宗商品市场波动等原因，基础原材料行业运行趋弱，购进价格指数虽保持在 扩张区间，但较上月下降2.2个百分点，出厂价格指数较上月下降4.5个百分点至略高于45%的水平，显示基础原材料行业购进价格上升势头放缓，产品销售价 格加快下降。整体来看，当 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, exceeding market expectations[1] - The New Orders Index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the Production Index surged by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, marking a six-month high[2] - Seasonal recovery, improved consumer demand due to policy incentives, and positive outcomes from the China-US trade talks contributed to the PMI increase[2] Price and Economic Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to approximately -2.3% in September, influenced by last year's lower base[3] - The Manufacturing PMI for high-tech sectors stood at 51.6%, while the Equipment Manufacturing PMI rose significantly by 1.4 percentage points to 51.9%[4][5] - The Consumer Goods Manufacturing PMI also increased by 1.4 percentage points to 50.6%, supported by government subsidies and stable export growth[5] Service and Construction PMI - The Services PMI decreased to 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, reflecting seasonal trends and the impact of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - The Construction PMI was at 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, but remained in contraction territory due to a cooling real estate market and weak infrastructure investment[7] Economic Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment shows slight improvement, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 4.7% year-on-year for Q3, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from Q2[7] - Looking ahead, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly decline to approximately 49.6% in October, influenced by high tariffs and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，9月份制造业PMI指数继续小幅回升，表明稳增长多项 政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回升，显示企业 生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求的情况仍然比 较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 随着高温多雨极端天气影响消退，叠加扩内需促增长政策继续发力，制造业PMI出现回升，但仍位于荣 枯线之下。 国家统计局9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较上月上升0.4 个百分点，连续2个月上升。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 张立群表示，综合看，当前政策推动的经济回升因素与市场引导的经济收缩力量仍处激烈角力之中。要 以力度足够的政府投资有效激活企业投资需求和居民消费需求，使超大规模内需市场尽快摆脱市场引导 的收缩态势，尽快转入持续活跃扩张轨道。 制造业供需改善 9月份制造业部分行业迎来产销旺季，带动制造业整体生产活动加快扩张。生产指数为51.9%，较上月 上升1.1个百分点，连续2个月上升，连续5个月运 ...

9月份，大型企业延续稳中有增态势，连续5个月运行在扩张区间。小型企业采购经理指数比上月上升1.6个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 市场预期持续改善。9月份生产经营活动预期指数为54.1%，比上月上升0.4个百分点。 中国物流与采购联合会会长 蔡进：供需两端都有比较良好的表现，国民经济运行保持稳中向好的趋势，特别是市场活力趋于回升，从经 济运行的质量来看，就业状况也在进一步向好。 9月份从业人员指数较上月上升0.6个百分点，升至3月份以来的高点。 新动能继续较快增长。9月份装备制造业采购经理指数为51.9%，较上月上升1.4个百分点。高技术制造业连续两个月稳定在51%以上。消 费品制造业方面，长假临近、开学季等因素拉动居民消费意愿释放，9月份消费品制造业采购经理指数为50.6%，较上月上升1.4个百分点，创 今年以来高点。 央视网消息：国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会9月30日联合发布9月份中国采购经理指数。 9月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.8%，较上月上升0.4个百分点，连续两个月上升，景气水平继续改善。企业生产扩张加快，生产指数 升至近6个月高点，制造业生产活动较为活跃。随着高温多雨极端天气影响基本消退，叠 ...

宏观政策有望加码推出和落实。 随着高温多雨极端天气影响消退，叠加扩内需促增长政策继续发力，制造业PMI出现回升，但仍位于荣 枯线之下。 国家统计局9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较上月上升0.4 个百分点，连续2个月上升。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，9月份制造业PMI指数继续小幅回升，表明稳增长多项 政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回升，显示企业 生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求的情况仍然比 较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 张立群表示，综合看，当前政策推动的经济回升因素与市场引导的经济收缩力量仍处激烈角力之中。要 以力度足够的政府投资有效激活企业投资需求和居民消费需求，使超大规模内需市场尽快摆脱市场引导 的收缩态势，尽快转入持续活跃扩张轨道。 中国物流信息中心专家文韬表示，9月制造业生产活动加快扩张还有一个重要原因是部分行业企业在销 售旺季预期下增加产成品储备，9月产成品 ...

一份亮眼的工业"成绩单"为国庆假期预热。9月27日，国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，8月规模以上工 业企业利润实现超预期"反转"——8月同比增长20.4%，较7月的下降1.5%大幅改善，不仅创下2023年12 月以来的最高增速，更在国庆前夕为市场注入一针"强心剂"。 "工业企业利润明显改善。"国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，1-8月份，规模以上工业企业利 润由1-7月份同比下降1.7%转为增长0.9%，扭转了自今年5月份以来企业累计利润持续下降态势。 超预期反转8月这一数据释放哪些信号 这是宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进的结果，各类市场主体盈利的"普惠性"显著增强。 --------------- 这一变化释放出明显的积极信号。从微观层面来看，企业盈利能力增强直接提振发展信心、为扩大生产 提供支撑，8月份，企业生产经营活动预期指数为53.7%，上升1.1个百分点；从宏观层面，更有望推 动"企业盈利-扩大生产-稳定就业-居民增收-消费扩容-经济复苏"的良性闭环形成，成为经济持续回暖的 重要动力源。 同期数据亦印证经济景气水平的回升：8月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)、非制造业商务活动指数和综 合 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide a specific industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of industrial enterprise profits in August 2025 is the result of anti - involution and the low - base effect, with high - end equipment manufacturing being an important support [5]. - Bonds will not enter a trend - like bear market. With the stabilization of earnings, bond yields are expected to enter a low - level oscillation state. For equities, the current market is mainly supported by risk appetite, which has basically recovered. In the future, risk appetite and earnings will oscillate within a range [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Profit Margin - From the perspective of volume, price, and profit margin, there is a decline in volume, an increase in price, and a rise in the revenue profit margin. In August, the national industrial added - value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a month - on - month decline of 0.5 percentage points. The year - on - year decline of PPIRM and PPI narrowed, ending the five - month trend of expanding decline. Affected by pork prices, CPI fell below 0. The monthly revenue profit margin of the whole industry in August was 5.8%, a significant year - on - year increase of 0.85 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry Differentiation - Upstream industries have improved comprehensively supported by anti - involution and price increases. The decline of coal mining and dressing has narrowed, and the growth rate of the non - ferrous industry has increased significantly. The equipment manufacturing industry is the most powerful driving sector, especially in technology - intensive industries such as railway, ship, aerospace, electrical machinery, special equipment, and computer and communication electronic equipment, where the profit growth rate leads. In August, the profit decline of the consumer goods manufacturing industry was generally around 10%, with obvious improvements in the food and paper industries [3]. 3.3 Inventory and Leverage - In terms of inventory, the growth rate of finished product inventory continued the downward trend since July last year, but the decline narrowed. In terms of scale, the liability growth rate of industrial enterprises rebounded, reaching 5.4% in August (the previous value was 5.1%), and the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises continued to rise to 58% [4].

经济日报记者 熊丽 不同规模企业利润均有改善，私营企业利润明显加快。前8个月，分规模看，规模以上工业中型、 小型企业利润同比分别增长2.7%、1.5%，较前7个月加快1.1个、0.4个百分点，大型企业降幅较前7个月 收窄4.6个百分点。分企业类型看，国有控股企业利润降幅较前7个月收窄5.8个百分点；私营企业利润增 长3.3%，高于全部规模以上工业企业平均水平2.4个百分点，较前7个月加快1.5个百分点。 8月份，规模以上工业企业成本状况有所改善，每百元营业收入中的成本同比减少0.20元，为2024 年7月份以来首次当月同比减少。规模以上工业企业营业收入利润率为5.83%，同比提高0.90个百分点。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，在外部环境严峻复杂、国内市场需求仍显不足的背景 下，要全面贯彻落实党中央决策部署，进一步扩大国内需求，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，规范企业 竞争秩序，为工业企业利润持续恢复创造更多有利条件。 从三大门类看，前8个月，制造业增长7.4%，较前7个月加快2.6个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水 生产和供应业增长9.4%，加快5.5个百分点；采矿业下降30.6%，降幅收窄1.0个百分点。 ...