Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak domestic demand and cautious market sentiment [2] - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level with support from high hot metal production and limited inventory build - up pressure [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4][6] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices show good performance with upward - repaired valuations, and it is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7][8] Summary by Industry Steel - The futures market declined today. Thread apparent demand recovered, production continued to fall, and inventory decreased slightly. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory accumulated again. High hot metal production eased the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain, but poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the market was cautious, and the bearish demand outlook restricted the upside of the futures market [2] Iron Ore - The futures market declined today. Global shipments fell from a high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory decreased last week with no significant short - term inventory build - up pressure. Domestic terminal demand was weak, steel mills had slight profits and low willingness to cut production actively. High hot metal production last week continued to support iron ore demand. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still some pre - festival replenishment demand. Market speculation cooled down. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated during the day. The first round of coking price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly. Overall coke inventory increased. With the rise in futures prices, traders' purchasing willingness improved. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a slight premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated during the day. Mongolian coal customs clearance suspended during the National Day holiday and will resume on October 8. Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, spot auction transactions increased, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory increased, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The resumption of production in coking coal mines was basically completed, and it was less likely to significantly increase production capacity under the over - production inspection. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Weekly silicon manganese production continued to increase, and inventory did not accumulate. Spot and futures demand was good. Manganese ore forward quotes rose slightly, and spot ore was boosted. Manganese ore inventory increased slowly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Magnesium metal production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, spot and futures market demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The downstream starts pre - holiday stockpiling, which supports the confidence of the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly continuously, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise coke prices due to rising costs [2] - In August, China's coking coal imports were 1.01622 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.02%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 7.26075 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 632.03 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. In August, Mongolian coal imports were 601.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.8% [2] - Recently, Tangshan has been affected by environmental protection policies, with a planned production restriction from September 15th to September 30th. Most of the production restrictions are voluntary. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 billion tons, and there was no overall production reduction in steel mills [3] Raw Materials - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and output continued to increase. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia caused concerns about coal mine production reduction, the actual reduction in coking coal was limited. In the short term, there is still a slight increase in production space for coal mines in the main production areas, and the market may remain strong before the holiday [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market continues to rebound, but the poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The demand expectation is pessimistic, which restricts the upward space [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation. The supply has declined from the high level, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal. The inventory has increased, and there is still a pre - holiday restocking demand [3] - The coke price is relatively firm, with a small premium on the trading floor. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [4] - The coking coal price is relatively firm, with a premium on the trading floor. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [6] - The silicon manganese price has a good upward repair, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [7] - The ferrosilicon price has a good upward repair, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand has recovered, production has declined, and inventory has slightly decreased. The hot - rolled coil's demand has declined, production has increased, and inventory has re - accumulated. The hot - metal production remains high, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain has eased, but the poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption [2] - The real - estate investment decline has widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have continued to slow down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the steel export remains high [2] - The trading floor continues to rebound under the support of "anti - involution" and the Fed's interest - rate cut, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space, and the rhythm is still volatile [2] Iron Ore - The global iron - ore shipment has declined from the high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. The shipment from Australia and that to China has decreased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a relatively high level this year [3] - The steel mills' willingness to actively cut production is still insufficient. The short - term high - level hot metal continues to support the iron - ore demand. The steel mills' imported - ore inventory has increased significantly, and there is still a certain pre - holiday restocking demand [3] - The Fed's interest - rate cut overseas meets market expectations, and the expectation of domestic policy release has increased. It is expected that the short - term market speculation sentiment still exists, and the iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The third round of price cut in the coking industry is still expected, and some coking plants have started the first round of price increase, with intensified game [4] - The coking profit is average, the daily production has slightly decreased, and the overall coke inventory has increased. The traders' purchasing willingness has recovered due to the rising trading - floor price [4] - The carbon - element supply is abundant, the downstream hot - metal production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. Coupled with the pre - National - Day restocking sentiment, the price is relatively firm, and the coke trading floor has a small premium. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal mine production has slightly increased. The pre - National - Day restocking sentiment is strong, the spot auction transactions have increased, the transaction price has improved following the trading floor, and the terminal inventory has increased [6] - The total coking - coal inventory has increased month - on - month, the production - end inventory has slightly decreased, the short - term shutdown of coking coal has basically recovered, but the possibility of further large - scale capacity release is low under the background of over - production inspection [6] - The carbon - element supply is abundant, the downstream hot - metal production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. Coupled with the pre - National - Day restocking sentiment, the price is relatively firm, and the coking - coal trading floor has a premium. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [6] Silicon Manganese - The hot - metal production has continued to rise above 241. The weekly silicon - manganese production has continued to increase to a relatively high level, the silicon - manganese inventory has not increased, and the spot and futures demand is good [7] - The forward quotation of manganese ore has increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore has been boosted following the trading floor. The manganese - ore inventory has increased, but the inventory - building speed is slow [7] - The price valuation has been repaired upward, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The hot - metal production has continued to rise above 241. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month, the secondary demand has slightly declined marginally, and the overall demand is okay [8] - The ferrosilicon supply has recovered to a high level, the market's spot and futures demand is good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has slightly decreased [8] - The price valuation has been repaired upward, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Coal and coke supply and demand are both increasing, and downstream enterprises are starting pre - holiday stockpiling, which supports the confidence of the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Market Situation - Last week, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly as a whole, and the price center shifted upward. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the dot - plot indicated two more cuts this year. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise coke prices due to rising costs [3] - Recently, due to the severe air quality situation in Tangshan, coking enterprises were required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to September 30th. However, the current production restrictions are mainly voluntary, and the specific plan is not clear [3] Production and Operation Data - Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot - metal output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons, and steel mills as a whole did not reduce production [3] Market Outlook - In the coal mine sector, last week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and output continued to rise. Although the policy is expected to improve, the market is worried about coal mine production cuts due to the over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia. In the short term, there is still room for a slight increase in production in major coal - producing areas, and the market will remain strong before the holiday [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of high-level ecological protection to promote high-quality development, with a comprehensive policy system established by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment [1] - The Ministry is focusing on strengthening access management to optimize and adjust industrial structure, implementing strict approval processes for high-emission and high-pollution projects, and transferring environmental assessment approval authority to provincial departments [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the number of environmental assessments for high-emission projects has decreased, while assessments for wind power and new energy vehicles have increased by 44.4% and 31.3% respectively in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Ministry has completed the revision of 32 emission standards to enhance the ecological environment standard system, leading to significant improvements in traditional industries [2] - Over the 14th Five-Year Plan period, 198 million tons of coking capacity and 110 million tons of cement clinker capacity have undergone ultra-low emission transformations, showcasing the revitalization of traditional industries [2] - The establishment of a national ecological environment technology achievement transformation service platform has gathered over 5,000 excellent technological achievements to support green low-carbon development [2] Group 3 - The development of green finance is being promoted to assist in the green and low-carbon transition, with over 100 projects receiving financial support amounting to 216.4 billion yuan and 76.4 billion yuan in loans issued [3] - A project recommendation mechanism for green finance has been established in collaboration with the People's Bank of China, with the first batch of loan contracts reaching 14.3 billion yuan [3] - Urban ecological comprehensive governance has been implemented to enhance city quality, exemplified by the successful transformation of the Liangma River in Beijing, which has become a significant aspect of high-quality urban development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's commitment to high-quality development through the implementation of the "Green Mountains and Clear Water are Gold and Silver Mountains" philosophy, focusing on optimizing the industrial structure and promoting green projects [1] Group 1: Environmental Policy and Project Approvals - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the number of environmental impact assessments (EIAs) for high-emission and high-pollution projects has been continuously decreasing, while EIAs for wind power and new energy vehicles have increased by 44.4% and 31.3% respectively in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - A total of 14,600 EIA documents for high-tech electronic information manufacturing projects have been approved since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," involving a total investment of 6.28 trillion yuan, providing strong support for the development of new productive forces [1] Group 2: Policy Framework and Standards - China has established an effective policy framework to promote new productive forces through high-level protection, covering various areas such as standards and norms, precise regulation, EIA reform, market mechanisms, and green financial support [1] - A total of 32 emission standards have been revised and completed, enhancing the green transformation of key industries [1] Group 3: Industrial Transformation and Technological Innovation - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," 198 million tons of coking capacity and 110 million tons of cement clinker capacity have completed ultra-low emission transformations, along with organized emission modifications for over 2,000 coal-fired boilers [1] - Over 5,000 outstanding technological achievements have been gathered to assist enterprises in achieving green and low-carbon development, contributing to the establishment of the world's largest clean steel production system [1] Group 4: Green Finance - The development of green finance has also facilitated the transition to a low-carbon economy, supporting the overall green transformation efforts [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The energy industry in Turpan is experiencing new vitality, driven by compliance and effective policies from the local tax authority [1] - Turpan is a significant coal production and processing base in Xinjiang, with a focus on safe mining practices supported by civil explosives [2] Group 2: Company Highlights - Turpan Tianbao Mixed Explosive Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the civil explosive sector, emphasizing compliance and innovation [2] - The company has saved over 28 million yuan in tax reductions over the past three years, which has been reinvested into R&D for new environmentally friendly explosives and intelligent blasting management systems [2] - Tokkexun County Panji Coal Industry Co., Ltd. has become a benchmark in the coal industry, benefiting from good tax credit ratings that enhance its development opportunities [3] Group 3: Taxation and Compliance Support - The Turpan tax authority has implemented targeted services to support compliance in the mining sector, utilizing big data to analyze tax risks and provide tailored advice [3] - The tax department's initiatives, such as "Tax Policy into Mining Areas," have helped companies improve their financial management and maintain good credit ratings [3] - Xinjiang Shengxiong Coking Co., Ltd. has benefited from timely tax policy education, which has clarified tax-related issues and facilitated compliance [4] Group 4: Environmental and Technological Advancements - Companies are focusing on reducing energy consumption and pollution emissions while pursuing green upgrades and industrial transformation [5] - The emphasis on compliance and innovation is seen as a stabilizing factor for the companies' development in the region [4][5]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke is progressing rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of molten iron, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, attention should be paid to the implementation of recent environmental protection and production restriction measures by steel mills. The market is expected to fluctuate [2][3]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - Overseas interest rate cut expectations are strong, and there is a strong atmosphere of "anti - involution" in China. The prices of coking coal and coke futures showed a strong trend yesterday. After the market, there was news of an environmental protection and production restriction plan in Tangshan, causing the night session to open high and close low. Tangshan's steel and coking enterprises have started environmental protection and production restrictions. Steel mills have shut down 40% of their blast furnaces, and coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The current overall operating rate of coking plants in the Tangshan market is around 75%. Steel mills have received the production restriction notice, but the specific implementation plan is still to be discussed [2]. Coal Mine End - After some coal mines reduced prices, sales improved. The market still expects inventory replenishment before the National Day. Last week, coal production gradually recovered. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines was 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Due to the impact of production cuts and improved sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [3]. Demand Side - The resumption of production at steel mills is fast. Last week, the daily average molten iron output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before production restrictions. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of molten iron production, and the demand for raw materials will face a test in the later stage [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weak, but the upward movement is still restricted. Although there are speculative factors such as anti - involution, the weak demand in the spot market and the increase in supply after the parade continue to limit the upward movement of the market. It is recommended to maintain a strategy of buying coking coal on dips [4]. - As of Friday's close, the coke 01 contract rose 0.56% to 1625.5, and the coking coal 01 contract rose 1.51% to 1144.5 [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The futures price first fell and then rose last week, and there are opportunities to buy on dips. The first - round reduction of spot prices has been implemented, and the second - round reduction has begun. The trucking freight has increased slightly. For example, the price of Shanxi Jiexiu quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price dropped from 1380 yuan/ton to 1330 yuan/ton [7][10][18]. - **Supply**: Most of the previously shut - down or restricted coking plants have resumed production, and coke supply has increased. As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of all independent coking enterprises was 75.92%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78 percentage points, and the daily average coke output was 66.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.44 tons [27][29]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production has increased significantly, and the rigid demand for raw materials is still supported. However, after the parade, logistics has improved, steel mills' arrivals have increased, and some steel mills are controlling arrivals. Speculative sentiment is average, export profit has changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials is lower than the same period in previous years [35][39][41]. - **Inventory**: Inventories have increased across all sectors, and the total inventory has risen. As of September 12, the total coke inventory increased by 10.96 tons week - on - week to 906.24 tons [42][44]. - **Profit**: The profitability of coking enterprises has been compressed, and the coke futures profit has fluctuated. The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan [55][57]. - **Valuation**: The premium of coke 01 has expanded, and the 1 - 5 spread has continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 11.3 to - 95.88 week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28 to - 137 [59][61]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The futures price first fell and then rose last week, and there are opportunities to buy on dips. The spot prices have shown mixed trends. For example, the CFR price of Peak Downs hard coking coal from Australia increased by 4.6 dollars/ton to 202.05 dollars/ton [64][67]. - **Supply**: The supply from production areas has increased, the output of coal washing plants has slightly increased, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Mongolian border has remained high, but the cumulative import of coking coal from January to July 2025 has decreased year - on - year. As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points, and the daily average output of clean coal was 25.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons [70][75][78]. - **Inventory**: Inventories have decreased across all sectors, and the total inventory has declined. As of September 12, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 62.03 tons week - on - week to 2483.50 tons [79][81]. - **Valuation**: The coking coal 01 is basically at par, and the 1 - 5 spread has weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 increased by 14 to - 13.5 week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 9 to - 81 [105][107].

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Tianjin has achieved new results in technological innovation, industrial development, and green transformation through comprehensive deepening of reforms [1][3] - Tianjin has formulated 329 reform tasks focusing on ten areas, including regional integration and coordinated development of industry, port, and city [3] - The city has established a platform for achievement transformation, the Tianjin High Education Science and Technology Innovation Park, with over 12,000 national high-tech enterprises and technology-based SMEs [5] Group 2 - Tianjin has enhanced its open economy by exploring innovative policies and building a higher-level free trade zone, adding 17 new container shipping routes during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [7] - The marine economy in Tianjin has surpassed 400 billion yuan [7] - The city has improved urban management systems, renovating 985 old urban communities and creating 270 "pocket parks," attracting over 130 million domestic tourists in the first half of the year [9] Group 3 - Hebei has completed afforestation of 30.46 million acres and desertification control of 9.597 million acres during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing its green foundation [12] - The province is accelerating the green transformation of traditional industries through technological innovation and digital upgrades, with 147 enterprises in key sectors achieving A-level environmental performance [14] - Xiong'an New Area is focusing on building a future industrial system around new-generation information technology, modern life sciences, and new materials, attracting over 200 technology-based companies [16]