双焦期货周度报告 2025年08月11日 六轮提涨开启 盘面震荡偏强 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内市场炼焦煤价格延续震荡运行走势 ，8 日主流焦企针对焦炭价格提出第六轮上涨，捣固湿熄焦上调50元 /吨、捣固干熄焦上调55元/吨，自8月11日0时起执行。 基本面分析：供应端，本周部分地区受煤矿检查叠加月底完 成生产任务以及井下条件等各种因素影响，原煤日产收缩，短期 恢复较为缓慢。本周市场情绪不及上周，主流大矿线上竞拍成交 涨跌互现，主力煤种目前暂稳，整体表现窄幅波动。需求端，本 周部分焦企开启第六轮提涨，预计近期焦钢仍有博弈空间，现钢 厂当前利润尚可且开工高位，焦炭刚需支撑较强，后续需关注月 底华北区域焦钢限产政策情况。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 1、央行8月1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the sales of new homes in first-tier cities weakened significantly. On Friday, Beijing introduced new property market policies, and it is expected that other first-tier cities will also introduce a new round of property market policies successively. The price of rebar fluctuated, the price of cement continued to decline, and the focus was on key industries to combat excessive competition. The travel intensity remained strong, and the SCFI continued to decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales in First-Tier Cities Weakened Significantly - This week (August 1 - August 7), the transaction volume of new homes decreased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the year-on-year decline slightly narrowed. Specifically, the transaction area of new homes in first-tier cities was significantly weaker than that of the same period last year, while that in second, third, and fourth-tier cities was slightly lower than last year. The transaction area of 20 key cities monitored by Wind decreased by 27.18% week-on-week and 14.49% year-on-year [7]. - The transaction volume of second-hand homes decreased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the year-on-year performance varied. Among key cities, on a week-on-week basis, the transaction area of each city decreased significantly compared to the previous period. On a year-on-year basis, except for Shanghai (3.83%) and Shenzhen (3.88%), the transaction volume in other cities was weaker than last year [26]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - This week, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range, with the cost side supported by strict inspections of coking coal overproduction, but the demand side remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The price of glass decreased as the sentiment of combating excessive competition subsided, and the price lacked upward momentum due to weak demand. The cement price index continued to decline, affected by weather and demand, and local price cuts could not offset the inventory pressure. The price of asphalt decreased, possibly affected by fluctuations in the cost of crude oil [2]. 3. Production: The Utilization Rates of Production Capacity Showed Differentiated Performance - This week, the utilization rates of production capacity showed differentiated performance. The utilization rates of coking enterprises and steel mills' blast furnaces increased, while those of petroleum asphalt, polyester filament, and PTA decreased significantly. The utilization rate of automobile tire production remained basically flat [2]. 4. Consumption: Strong Travel Momentum - In terms of consumption, automobile sales and domestic flights were stronger than the seasonal average, subway ridership was in line with the seasonal average, and movie box office was lower than the seasonal average [2]. 5. Exports: SCFI and BDI Declined - This week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined, while the CRB Spot Index remained basically flat. The lack of further growth momentum in transportation demand led to continued adjustments in market freight rates [2]. 6. Prices: Pork Prices Declined, Vegetable Prices Rose Significantly, and Oil Prices Declined - This week, pork prices declined, vegetable prices rose significantly, and oil prices declined. The sharp increase in vegetable prices was mainly due to floods caused by heavy rainfall in the north, which destroyed vegetable fields and reduced the supply of vegetables. The decrease in crude oil prices was mainly due to the expected decline in global trade demand, increased supply surplus, and the subsidence of geopolitical risk premiums [2].

市场情绪降温 盘面回调明显 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内市场炼焦煤价格延续震荡偏强走势，不 过涨幅有所收窄，本周涨幅多在50-100元/吨。焦炭价格连续提 涨落地，第四轮提涨于28日落地，累计涨幅达200-220元/吨。 基本面分析：供应端，本周部分地区受查超产叠加月底完成 生产任务以及井下条件等因素影响，原煤日产小幅减少，但整体 炼焦煤需求韧性较强，煤矿去库明显。需求端，铁水产量小幅回 落，但仍在高位，焦炭第四轮提涨落地，主流焦企对焦炭提出第 五轮涨价，主流钢厂暂未回应，焦钢企业在高生产负荷、库存消 耗稳定的情况下，对原料煤的采购需求保持刚性，后期需关注煤 矿及焦钢企业开工变化。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 双焦期货周度报告 2025年08月04日 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周国内市 ...

本报告内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议,请注意风险控制 请阅读底部《免责条款》 数据来源：Mysteel、宝城期货金融研究所 230家独立焦化厂焦炭库存: 周: 万吨 2020 —2021 l －2022 － — 2023 — 2024 2025 250 200 120 100 50 0 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 12/4 247家钢厂样本焦化厂焦炭库存: 周: 万吨 －2022 － — 2023 2020 2021 l — 2024 - 2025 1060 =2021 — 2019 - = 2020 ·2022 = = 2023 - 2024 · 2025 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 2/4 10/4 11/4 12/4 1/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 2、焦煤库存 煤焦周度产业数据 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1778号 2025年8月1日 | 简评:1、焦煤产量、进口量均维持较高水平、基本面无明显支撑;2、焦炭供需均小幅下降、基本面 | | | | | | 姓名 ...

Company Performance - Antai Group expects a net loss of approximately 95 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant reduction from a loss of 183 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company's net loss excluding non-recurring items is projected to be around 91 million yuan, compared to a loss of 185 million yuan in the previous year [2] - The reduction in losses is attributed to the successful transition of the coking business to a processing model, which has mitigated some market risks [2] Business Operations - Antai Group primarily engages in the production and sale of coke and section steel products [2] - The company faced production scale reductions and increased unit costs due to major repairs in the first quarter, while the second quarter saw stable production and sales but declining prices for key products like coal tar and H-beams [2] - The current losses are mainly concentrated in the section steel business, which has not yet shown effective improvement [2] Industry Analysis - The domestic steel billet market has been operating weakly in the first half of 2025, with a 13.78% year-on-year decline in average prices [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the closing price for domestic steel billets was 2,943 yuan per ton, down 5.58% from the beginning of the year [3] - The steel industry has experienced a downward trend since 2022, characterized by weak demand, high inventory levels, and high raw material costs, which have pressured profitability [4] - The market is expected to continue facing imbalances between supply and demand, with intensified competition and increased operational pressures for companies in 2024 [4]

第一部分 前言概要 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 双焦：短期博弈加大 中期跟踪查超产实际影响 黑色板块研发报告 - 银河期货 第 1 页 共 21 页 - 图 1：焦煤主力合约走势 图 2：焦炭主力合约走势 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 基本面情况 7 第 2 页 共 21 页 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 图 3：炼焦煤价格指数 单位：元/吨 图 4：中硫主焦煤价格 单位：元/吨 800 1300 1800 2300 2800 3300 3800 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 中硫主焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 图 6 ：蒙 5 原煤-甘其毛都 单位：元/吨 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 蒙5精煤 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Rankings - Company ranked 322nd in the 2025 Fortune China 500 list, improving by 17 positions from the previous year [1] - Revenue reached 47.54 billion yuan, a growth of 3.2% year-on-year, with total assets at 59.841 billion yuan (+11.2%) and net assets at 15.877 billion yuan (+9.7%) [1][2] - Company has been listed in the Fortune China 500 for seven consecutive years since its IPO in March 2019 [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Global Expansion - Company has established nine production parks in China and Indonesia, focusing on coking and chemical industries, with a total coking capacity of 23.8 million tons per year [2][3] - The overseas coking park in Indonesia achieved a sales volume of 2.22 million tons and generated revenue of 730 million USD in 2024 [3] - Company is expanding its international presence with seven overseas subsidiaries and offices, targeting emerging markets in Mongolia, the Middle East, and South America [3] Group 3: Innovation and R&D - Company is transitioning to a service-oriented and innovation-driven model, establishing a three-tier R&D system with over 1,000 researchers [4][5] - Investment of 1.21 billion yuan in 146 digital projects, leading to the development of an intelligent manufacturing system [7] - Successful launch of a 5,000-ton/year amino alcohol production facility, marking a significant technological breakthrough in high-end fine chemicals [12][13] Group 4: Sustainability and Environmental Responsibility - Company has invested 9.32 billion yuan in environmental protection projects, achieving a 100% wastewater recovery rate and over 99% recycling of cooling water [18][19] - Maintains a record of zero major safety incidents and implements a comprehensive safety management system [18] - Achieved ultra-low emissions in several parks and actively engages in energy-saving technology upgrades [19] Group 5: Product Quality and Market Competitiveness - Company focuses on quality management, developing products that meet high standards, such as the "Xuyang No. 1" coke for large blast furnaces [20] - Achieved significant international market competitiveness with solid products, including solid amine exports doubling [20]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月25日08时12分 报告导读： 政策面上，工信部将推出钢铁、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案 ，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。另有消息称，国家能源局煤炭 司主导严查煤矿超产、整治行业内卷，焦煤连续涨停，对其他黑色板块品种有较强的带动作用 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹钢 产量、表需由降转增，厂库连续第二周减少，社库连续第二周增加。五大品种总库存有所上升，表观需求有所回落。从需求的季节性规律看，在暑 期高温天气，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会进一步回升。目前市场是弱现实和强预期的博弈 ，强预期占主导，对宏观政策的乐观预期也有所 加强。从技术上看，期价大幅拉升后进入高位震荡 操作建议： 暂时维持观望，调整之后再逢低做多，短线操作。空仓的投资者谨慎追涨杀跌 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 虽然期价大幅上涨，但现货价格涨幅相对较小，目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，本周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 242.2 万吨，环比上周 下降了 0.1 万吨。目前市场 ...

Summary of Meijin Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meijin Energy - **Industry**: Coal and Coke Production Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Meijin Energy's gross profit from coal and coke businesses remained stable compared to Q1, with coke business losses slightly narrowing. Coal prices decreased year-on-year but remained stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The company expects an overall loss for the year, primarily due to high depreciation costs estimated at approximately 2 billion yuan [2][10] - The anticipated loss for Q2 2025 is projected to be between 500 million to 700 million yuan, attributed to oversupply in the coal and coke markets and weak demand from the real estate and downstream steel sectors [3][10] Production and Capacity - The Guizhou coking plant has completed the first phase with a capacity of 1.8 million tons, and the second phase plans to add another 2 million tons, with preliminary investments nearly complete [2][6] - Coal production is operating at near full capacity, with only minor adjustments due to coal quality issues at the well-return mine [7] - The company does not plan to reduce production despite the current supply-side reforms, as they believe the impact on leading enterprises is minimal [8] Market Conditions - The company is closely monitoring the recovery of the downstream steel industry, which is expected to drive growth in the entire supply chain [8] - The recent rise in raw steel prices has had a limited impact on operations due to existing inventory and coal storage [16] Debt and Cash Flow - The rating agency Zhongzheng Pengyuan downgraded Meijin's convertible bonds to A+ due to severe losses and high shareholder pledge rates, indicating tight cash flow [9] - The company faces challenges in resolving shareholder pledge issues due to market value constraints [14] Future Outlook - Short-term recovery from losses in the coking sector is deemed difficult, with high depreciation costs further complicating profitability [10] - Asset impairment for 2025 is expected to be over 10 million yuan, a decrease from the previous year's impairment of 100 to 200 million yuan [10] - The company does not currently meet conditions for adjusting the conversion price of its bonds, which are expected to mature in 2028 [10][11] Strategic Projects - The asset injection project for Jiyuan Coal Mine is currently paused, pending successful joint trial production, expected to resume in Q3 2026 [4][12] - The company is considering suitable projects for investment but is slowing down its overall investment pace [4][12] Supply Chain Dynamics - The self-supply ratio of coking coal is approximately 30%, with the remaining 70% sourced externally, primarily through spot purchases [17] - Long-term pricing agreements for coking coal are not common due to the weak bargaining position of coking plants [18][19] Conclusion - Meijin Energy is navigating a challenging market environment with significant financial pressures and operational constraints. The focus remains on maintaining production levels while monitoring market conditions and potential recovery in the steel sector. The company is also addressing internal financial issues, including shareholder pledges and cash flow management, as it plans for future growth and investment opportunities.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is optimistic due to the "anti-involution" trend and the rectification of overproducing coal mines, and the industrial products at low levels continue to rise sharply. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes on both supply and demand sides [2]. - The market expectations have improved due to the "anti-involution" and the upcoming important meeting, and the market sentiment has been further strengthened. It is expected that the short-term trend of iron ore will be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased market volatility [3]. - The coke and coking coal prices have risen sharply, and although the carbon element supply is still abundant, the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The impact of "anti-involution" on these industries is currently limited, and attention should be paid to whether the policies are further implemented. The futures prices are at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [4][6]. - The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have risen. The inventory of silicon manganese is expected to continue to decline, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure in the long term. The demand for ferrosilicon is generally good, and both follow the trend of thread steel, with relatively small increases [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The demand for thread steel is weak during the off-season, production continues to decline, and inventory accumulates slightly at a low level. The demand for hot-rolled coil remains resilient, production continues to decline, and inventory drops slightly. Molten iron production has increased and remains at a high level. The negative feedback pressure on the market is small under the low-inventory pattern. Domestic demand is still weak, while exports remain relatively high. The market is expected to remain strong [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have increased month-on-month and are stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has declined from a high level, and port inventory has increased slightly with no obvious short-term inventory accumulation pressure. On the demand side, it is the off-season for the terminal, the proportion of profitable steel mills is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the motivation for active production cuts is insufficient. The molten iron production unexpectedly rebounded last week. The short-term trend is expected to be strong [3]. Coke - The price limit up within the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, the coking profit is meager, and the daily coking production has increased slightly after a continuous decline. The overall coke inventory has decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders has increased. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The futures price is at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The price limit up within the day. Affected by policy documents, the futures price has risen significantly. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction market has improved, the transaction price has continued to rise, and the terminal inventory has increased. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the production-side inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The futures price is at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated upward within the day. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level has decreased, the weekly production recovery rate is slow, and both futures and spot demand have improved. It is judged that the inventory will mainly continue to decline. In the long term, the manganese ore inventory is gradually increasing, which exerts great pressure on the price. In the short term, the current inventory level is low, the price support intention of manganese mines has increased, and the spot manganese ore price has risen following the futures price [7]. Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated upward within the day. The molten iron production has increased and returned above 242. The export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand has slightly declined marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance inventory has declined fluctuatingly [8].