Group 1 - The core index of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index reported at 5488.14 points, showing a decline of 1.54% over the past month, an increase of 2.05% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 3.77% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen industry index series categorizes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Composite, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Composite Index into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies [1] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index include Meihua Biological (2.53%), Zhengbang Technology (2.43%), Yanjing Beer (2.2%), Anjii Food (1.83%), Maogeping (1.79%), Hengan International (1.76%), Dabeinong (1.66%), Dekang Animal Husbandry (1.64%), First Pacific (1.57%), and Bairun Co. (1.55%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings is 41.28% from Shanghai Stock Exchange, 41.17% from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and 17.55% from Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings shows that food accounts for 32.70%, breeding for 20.94%, liquor for 17.06%, planting for 8.99%, beauty care for 6.79%, soft drinks for 6.78%, and household goods for 6.75% [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][61]. Core Views - The report highlights that the pig price may experience a turning point due to seasonal factors and policy changes, suggesting a bottoming out phase for the sector [2][12]. - The poultry sector is seeing price declines, but there are signs of marginal improvements in the cycle [3][24]. - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, and there are investment opportunities in the pet medical industry [4][35]. - The planting sector is witnessing a week-on-week rebound in grain prices [5][43]. - The feed sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with a general downward trend [6][46]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength [7][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - The average pig price is currently fluctuating between 14-15 CNY/kg, with a notable increase in average weights compared to previous years [11][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with low costs and strong financial health, such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [12][61]. Poultry Industry - The poultry prices are declining, with the white feather chicken price at 3.48 CNY/jin, showing a slight decrease [24][25]. - The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Livestock, while suggesting to pay attention to He Feng and Minhe Livestock [25][61]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to recover, supported by the profitability of the pig farming industry [35][36]. - The pet medical market is projected to grow, with a market size of approximately 840 billion CNY, representing 28% of the pet industry [4][35]. Planting Sector - Grain prices are showing a week-on-week increase, with corn priced at 2353 CNY/ton and wheat at 2446 CNY/ton [43][44]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-tech [43][61]. Feed Sector - Feed prices are experiencing a downward trend, with pig feed at 3.36 CNY/kg [46][47]. - The report recommends Hai Da Group and suggests paying attention to He Feng [47][61]. Pet Industry - The pet market is expected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [51][52]. - The report recommends companies in the pet food sector like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and in the pet medical sector, it recommends Ruipu Biological [55][61].

Group 1: Pet Economy - The pet economy continues to show high growth, with over 400 pet brands achieving sales growth of over 100% year-on-year during the "618" shopping festival [1] - The number of pet transaction users increased by 32% year-on-year, while new pet owners grew by 39% [1] - Top brands in various pet food categories include Royal Canin and Maffidi for cat and dog dry food, and Maffidi and Zeal for cat and dog snacks/wet food [1] Group 2: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs rose to 14.22 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.43% [2] - The average price of piglets decreased to 31.85 yuan/kg, down 3.16% week-on-week [2] - The average weight of market pigs decreased slightly to 128.28 kg, while the inventory rate of frozen products increased to 14.04% [2] Group 3: Grain Prices - Prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat have increased, with corn averaging 2417.06 yuan/ton (up 0.47%), soybean meal at 3015.14 yuan/ton (up 1.59%), and wheat at 2441.67 yuan/ton (up 0.46%) [3] - Weather conditions and trade dynamics are influencing corn prices, while soybean meal prices are affected by supply concerns from the U.S. and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a long-term profit growth phase after inventory reduction, with recommended companies including Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Muyuan Foods [4] - The post-cycle sector is seeing a recovery in feed and veterinary demand, with companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biotech recommended [4] - The planting chain is showing positive fundamentals with rising grain prices, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and recommended companies including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of a young entrepreneur in the agricultural sector, focusing on the innovative practices adopted to enhance productivity and sustainability in farming [1][2]. Group 1: Entrepreneurial Journey - The entrepreneur, Hua Mengli, has been working in rural agriculture for ten years, starting her journey after high school by studying horticultural technology [1]. - In 2016, the company shifted from traditional farming methods to an ecological circular agriculture model, establishing a high-standard farm covering over a thousand acres [1]. Group 2: Agricultural Innovation - The company developed a plant tissue culture laboratory in 2018, optimizing strawberry seedling breeding technology and achieving mass production [1]. - By 2020, the company extended its agricultural supply chain, assisting farmers in selling 5.13 million pounds of agricultural products [1]. Group 3: Sustainable Practices - The company employs modern farming techniques to enhance productivity and has implemented strict green production standards, achieving multiple green food certifications [2]. - The farm operates as a small ecological circle, promoting biodiversity with over 30 species of wild animals, contributing to a healthier ecosystem and better quality agricultural products [2].

Group 1: Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is showing strong performance, with top brands like MaiFuDi and FriegaTe leading sales during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The growth of the pet economy in China is notable, with domestic brands demonstrating strong innovation capabilities [2] Group 2: Feed Industry - The feed production in China is experiencing significant growth, with April 2025 data showing a production of 27.53 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.2% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [3] - The recovery of pig stocks and high levels of poultry farming are expected to drive feed industry growth, alongside overseas expansion by major feed companies [3] Group 3: Agriculture - Recent drought conditions in the Huang-Huai-Hai region are affecting wheat production, with 40% of counties experiencing severe drought [4] - Grain prices are on the rise, with corn prices reaching 2375 RMB/ton and wheat prices at 2468 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, indicating a favorable environment for planting profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Insights - The USDA's May supply and demand report indicates a tightening of global supply for corn, soybeans, and wheat, while beef prices in the U.S. are expected to rise due to reduced supply [5][6] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the agricultural sector, particularly in corn and soybean markets, as prices are expected to stabilize and recover from historical lows [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA forecasts a global corn production increase of 43.7 million tons (approximately +3.45%) to 1.26498 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage rising by 24.4 million tons (approximately +1.91%) [16][17] - China's corn production is expected to increase by 80,000 tons (approximately +0.03%) to 295 million tons, with total usage up by 5 million tons (approximately +1.56%) [17] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with strong support expected for price recovery [19] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected to increase by 5.95 million tons (approximately +1.39%) to 426.82 million tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 13.76 million tons (approximately +3.24%) [31][32] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain under pressure in the first half of 2025 due to high supply levels, but long-term trends are expected to improve [34][35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to rise by 8.81 million tons (approximately +1.10%) to 80.852 million tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage increasing by 4.38 million tons (approximately +0.55%) [43][44] - The overall supply of wheat remains ample, and prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels [43] Beef - The USDA predicts a significant reduction in U.S. beef supply for 2026, with prices expected to rise by 15.2% in Q2 2025 and 14.1% in Q3 2025 [5][7] - The domestic beef market is expected to see a price increase despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential upward cycle for beef prices [5][7] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase by 1.33% in 2026, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply [7][8] - Domestic pork prices are projected to decline, but low-cost producers are expected to maintain profitability [7] Poultry - U.S. poultry supply is expected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand in China anticipated to improve [7][8] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are diminishing, which may support recovery in poultry production [7] Eggs - U.S. egg production is projected to increase by 6% in 2026, with domestic supply expected to remain ample throughout the year [8][9] - The report indicates that egg prices may face downward pressure due to high supply levels [8][9]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The pet sector continues to show high prosperity, driven by domestic substitution and consumption upgrades, leading to a dual increase in volume and price [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value creation," with leading companies shifting from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" through formula innovation and precise demand capture [2][17] - The domestic pet food market remains strong, with a significant increase in sales and exports, indicating robust growth potential for domestic brands [2][17] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The fifth TOPS Pet Expo in Shanghai showcased over 1,200 exhibitors and 8,000+ brands, reflecting strong growth momentum in the pet industry, with a 43% year-on-year increase in attendance [1][16] - Trends in pet food are shifting towards precision nutrition, with a focus on age-specific feeding and high-end production techniques [1][16] - Key recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co., with additional recommendations for pet medical and product companies [2][17] Swine Sector - As of May 10, the average price of live pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, with production capacity continuing to grow [3][18] - The industry is facing a potential downturn in profitability due to weak demand and seasonal price declines [3][19] - Recommended companies include leading players such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, with a focus on core assets [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is facing uncertainties in breeding imports, with a significant decline in the number of breeding stock updated [20][21] - The yellow chicken segment is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand, with stable prices observed [23] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Co. for white chicken, and Wens Foodstuffs for yellow chicken [22][23] Planting Sector - The government emphasizes agricultural technology innovation and self-sufficiency in food security, with a focus on biological breeding [25][26] - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, with additional focus on agricultural water-saving technologies [25][26] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its market share growth and consistent performance in the feed sector [27] - The animal health sector is seeing new opportunities in pet health products, with recommended companies including KQ Bio and Zhongmu Co. [28]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 19 周周报：它博会归来，如何看宠物经济发展新趋势？ 1、宠物板块：高景气延续，国产替代与消费升级共筑量价双升 1）它博会看点：①今年关注度再上一层。第五届 TOPS 它博会于本周在上海国家会展中心开幕，展会以超 10 万平展览面积、1200 余家展商、8000+ 品牌缔造行业盛况，折射宠物赛道强劲增长动能。展会首日观众数同比激增 43%，创历史新高，核心数据验证行业扩容。②产品和工艺趋势变化：宠 物主粮精细化趋势显著，分龄分阶喂养成为核心升级方向：幼年期主打高蛋白、原生营养（麦富迪奶弗羊奶肉主粮系列），老年期聚焦肠胃调理、关节 养护（麦富迪老年犬粮）；工艺革新驱动高端化：低温烘焙成军备竞赛焦点（领先烘焙鲜肉猫粮、弗列加特鲜肉烘焙粮），鲜粮/湿粮赛道崛起（ZEAL 新西兰进口主食罐），国产技术迭代创新，行业从"粗放供给"迈向"精准营养+体验升级"新周期；③部分参展公司亮点：外资品牌如皇家、渴望、 爱肯拿，国产头部品牌如麦富迪、鲜朗、蓝氏，以及国产宠物用品公司天元宠物等齐聚展会，其中国产品牌表现较为亮眼——麦富迪它博会以"超级 工厂+天性数据研 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the potential recovery of grain prices in 2025, which is expected to create investment opportunities in the planting sector due to reduced imports of agricultural products and a focus on food security [1][2] - In 2024 and Q1 2025, grain prices such as corn and soybeans are projected to decline initially but then rise, with specific increases noted: corn prices up by 6.4%, soybean meal by 6.5%, wheat by 1.2%, and cottonseed meal by 18.4% in Q1 2025 compared to the beginning of the quarter [1] - The performance of agricultural companies is expected to improve in 2025, driven by rising prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat, with specific mention of Morning Light's recovery due to increased cottonseed meal prices [1] Group 2 - The adjustment of tariffs is anticipated to lead to a decrease in grain imports from the United States, which was valued at $24.9 billion in 2024, thereby enhancing the domestic grain price environment and benefiting the planting industry [2] - The promotion of food self-sufficiency is deemed essential, with advancements in technology such as transgenic and gene editing expected to accelerate, benefiting seed companies with leading technological reserves [2][3] - The performance of seed companies is expected to vary, with strong competitive varieties being a core support for their success [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [3]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing high growth in performance, with significant profitability in Q1 2025 despite a downward price trend starting in Q4 2024 [1][2]. - The overall financial health of the industry is improving, with a notable reduction in the asset-liability ratio and strong operating cash flow [1][24]. - The supply of pigs is expected to rebound in the short term, while medium-term capacity continues to decline, indicating a cautious approach to long-term asset investment by pig farming companies [1][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming: Performance Improvement and Continuous Operations - The pig farming industry maintained high profitability, with a total revenue increase of 2.53% year-on-year in 2024, and a significant recovery in net profit to 30.68 billion yuan [1][13]. - Operating cash flow for 14 listed pig farming companies reached a historical high of 74.77 billion yuan in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing to show strong performance at 13.29 billion yuan [24][30]. - Inventory levels for listed pig farming companies increased to approximately 96.89 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 4.03% year-on-year growth [31]. 2. Post-Cycle: Recovery in Pig Farming and Beneficiaries - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with animal health revenue reaching 17.56 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.06% [43]. - The feed sector's revenue in 2024 was 261.65 billion yuan, down 8.31% year-on-year, but profitability improved significantly with a net profit of 7.84 billion yuan [43]. 3. Poultry: Stable Revenue and Profitability - The poultry farming sector reported a revenue of 72.91 billion yuan in 2024, with a remarkable year-on-year increase in net profit to 2.95 billion yuan [67]. - The fixed assets of four major white-feathered chicken companies reached 20.33 billion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating a slowdown in long-term asset growth [68].