1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [5] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [5] 2. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets have weak spot trading, with both futures closing down after wide - range oscillations. The glass market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the soda ash market faces supply pressure and weak demand. The prices of both are affected by factors such as the real - estate data and the Middle - East situation [1]. - The silicon - alloy market is in a game between production cuts and the reality. The silicon - alloy futures first rose and then fell. The silicon - alloy market has over - capacity and high inventory problems, and the prices are affected by factors like the hurricane, energy prices, and manganese ore shipments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures had wide - range oscillations and closed down at the end of the session. The spot price was stable, and the trading was mainly driven by刚需, showing weak trading [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The glass market has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The enterprise profit is shrinking, the number of cold - repaired production lines is increasing, and the output is continuously declining. The downstream deep - processing orders are weak, and the overall demand is sluggish. Although the inventory has declined from the high level, the price is still under pressure due to the disappointing real - estate data [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures had wide - range oscillations and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market trading was mainly driven by刚需 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The soda ash output continued to increase, and the supply pressure still existed. The downstream demand was weak, and the total inventory was still under high - level pressure. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the cost was influenced by energy prices, and the soda ash price fluctuations intensified. Attention should be paid to cost support and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: The global manganese industry association alloy seminar was held, with a strong atmosphere of production cuts. However, the over - capacity in the manganese - alloy industry restricted the upward price movement. The manganese - silicon futures first rose and then fell. The spot market of silicomanganese had a strong - side oscillation. The alloy factories' production enthusiasm was fair, and there was no large - scale production increase or decrease. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 6200 - 6300 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, the silicomanganese output decreased, the apparent demand increased, and the inventory increased. Due to the loose capacity and high - inventory pressure, the supply - demand contradiction was large. In the short term, the price rose significantly due to the possible impact of the Australian hurricane on manganese ore shipments and the increase in manganese ore costs caused by the rise in shipping fees. However, when the hurricane impact subsided or the Middle - East situation stabilized, the price still faced downward pressure. Attention should be paid to energy prices and manganese ore shipments [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [5] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The ferrosilicon futures had high - level oscillations. The spot market of ferrosilicon adjusted upward, with general market activity. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main producing areas was 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon was relatively limited. However, recently, due to the improvement in profits, the output increased significantly, and the loose capacity added resistance to inventory reduction in the peak season. The tense Middle - East situation disturbed the international energy prices, and the market was concerned about the rise in electricity prices, so the ferrosilicon price oscillated strongly. Attention should be paid to energy prices, ferrosilicon costs, inventory changes, and ferrosilicon warehouse receipts [4]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Rubber Industry - The market sentiment has eased with the expectation of a cease - fire and peace talks between the US and Iran, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound in rubber prices. However, as the domestic rubber - producing areas are fully tapped, supply pressure will gradually dominate the market, and rubber prices are expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran conflict [2][4]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is volatile, and the spot price has risen slightly. The current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the spot market deviates from the futures. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is generally cautious. Policy factors suppress prices, and the short - term rise in futures driven by emotions cannot be transmitted to the spot market. The urea market is highly volatile in the short term due to the expected escalation of the Middle East conflict [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - For caustic soda, the supply has further decreased this week, the profit has increased significantly, and the export expectation is high. Although the downstream demand has improved, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. The price has been affected by the Middle East conflict and has fluctuated sharply, and it has fallen recently as the market sentiment has ebbed. For PVC, the futures price has weakened, and the spot price has retreated from a high level. The ethylene - based PVC has a rising trend driven by cost, while the calcium - carbide - based PVC has insufficient upward momentum. The overall market price is likely to be difficult to fall, but regional trends and raw material prices should be carefully observed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has shrunk, and the demand is weak. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the market is expected to be a game between supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, with a weak and volatile trend. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The weekly output has shown a declining trend due to equipment maintenance, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is also expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, some Asian refineries' operations are affected, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream product prices are rising, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. However, the short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices, and it may fluctuate with oil prices. For styrene, the overall supply is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is still tight. The profit has been continuously compressed due to the sharp rise in raw material ethylene prices, and the absolute price also fluctuates with oil prices [8]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market is highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply side shows an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has a warming expectation for MTO demand in ports. Currently, the decrease in imports dominates the market, but the sustainability of demand and policy risks should be noted [9]. LPG Industry - No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data show that LPG prices have fallen, and the inventory of refineries and ports has increased. The upstream refinery operating rate has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has increased [10]. Crude Oil Industry - The current conflict in the Middle East has entered the fourth week, and the focus is on the control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply chain security. The market sentiment has eased, but there are doubts about the negotiation and cease - fire. The oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, mainly supported by geopolitics and suppressed by policies. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual通航 recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decrease further, and the downstream polyester has a cost - transmission problem, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices. For PTA, there is an inventory - accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply has decreased significantly, and the price has the momentum to rise. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong [13]. Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the expectation of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, the polyolefin futures market has fallen significantly, and the basis has strengthened passively. The current fundamentals are based on the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply", but the downstream demand is limited. The unilateral price fluctuates greatly, and long - positions can be reduced [14]. 3. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various rubber products have shown different degrees of changes, such as the increase in the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex and the decrease in the price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna. The basis of some products has also changed [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the change in the 9 - 1 spread and the 1 - 5 spread [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in different countries and regions in different months has changed, and the operating rates of tire enterprises and the production and export volume of tires have also fluctuated. The inventory of rubber in bonded areas and warehouses has also shown different trends [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [5]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of some upstream raw materials have changed slightly, such as the increase in the price of动力煤 in Yijinhuoluo Banner [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in different regions have shown different trends, with some prices rising slightly [5]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea has decreased, the inventory of enterprises and ports has decreased, and the order days of production enterprises have increased [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products in the spot and futures markets have changed, with some prices rising and some falling [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have increased [6]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have decreased, and the profits of different production methods have changed [6]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in factories and society have decreased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of glass and soda ash products have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads changing [7]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The daily melting volume of glass has decreased, and the weekly production of soda ash has increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in factories have decreased, and the inventory days of glass factories' soda ash have increased [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in real - estate data such as new construction area, sales area, and construction area have shown different trends [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products have also changed [8]. - **Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of benzene - styrene products in the spot and futures markets have changed [8]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports have changed, and the operating rates of related industries in the产业链 have also changed [8]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of methanol futures contracts and spot prices have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads narrowing [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of methanol in enterprises and ports have decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol have changed, with the operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises increasing and the operating rate of some downstream industries also changing [9]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **LPG Outer - Market Prices**: The outer - market prices of LPG have increased [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of LPG in refineries and ports have increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil products such as Brent, WTI, and SC have changed, and the spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties have also changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products and the spreads between different contracts have changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed, with some prices falling and some cash flows improving [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products have changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA products have changed, and there is an inventory - accumulation expectation [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG products have changed, and the supply has decreased significantly [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have fallen [14]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of polyolefin products have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of PE and PP have changed [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of PE and PP in enterprises and society have decreased [14].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-3-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：随着企业检修开始，供应呈现下降趋势，但整体供给仍充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑，纯碱厂库处于历史同期最高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1215元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1240元/吨，基差为-25元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存185.38万吨，较前一周减少4.03%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：成本端提振，短期预计纯碱震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游浮法玻璃冷修较少，产量持稳。 2、美伊冲突提振 ...

1. Report Information - Report title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: March 25, 2026 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the soda ash futures market may experience increased volatility, but in the medium - to - long - term, it faces downward price pressure due to a weak supply - demand situation. Although cost - side support from geopolitical factors exists, it is unstable [8]. - The glass market is in a dilemma. In the short - term, there is a possibility of a rebound in trading, but the upside is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, an improvement in the supply - demand structure and an upward price trend depend on the sustained change in commercial housing sales data [9][10]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash Market - On March 24, the main soda ash futures contract SA605 rose first and then fell, closing at 1240 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.24%, with a daily reduction of 11,088 lots [8]. - The soda ash market is under pressure, with significant supply - side pressure due to new capacity and high operating rates, weak demand in real estate and photovoltaic sectors, and high inventory levels. Geopolitical factors support the cost side but are unstable [8]. Glass Market - The glass price is in a dilemma. High inventory and potential production capacity limit the upside, while cold - repair expectations and geopolitical - influenced upstream prices support the downside. However, the current cold - repair of individual production lines has little impact on the supply side, and inventory is still accumulating [9]. - In the short - term, coal and natural gas price hikes due to geopolitics have driven the glass price to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of raw material price increases. The glass price's medium - to - long - term upward trend depends on commercial housing sales data [10]. 4.2 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][14][20]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-3-24 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：随着企业检修开始，供应呈现下降趋势，但整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏 日熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期最高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1235元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1256元/吨，基差为-21元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存185.38万吨，较前一周减少4.03%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：成本端提振，短期预计纯碱震荡运行为主。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游浮法玻璃冷修较少，产量持稳。 2、美伊冲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy substitution logic of coal has become the focus of recent market trading. Under the high crude oil prices due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, coking coal and coke prices are strong. The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited, but the rising energy valuation continues to support alloy prices. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the peak - season expectations are still cautious, so the upward driving force for steel prices is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron - ore supply - side disturbances [1] - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world situation remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, prices will be strongly supported; if they ease, prices may face downward pressure [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to oscillate. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals recovered. Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuates. Steel mill profitability increased month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to recover further. Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel - mill imported - ore inventories increased [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, scrap - steel arrivals are generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap - steel supply is generally stable, short - process steel - mill demand has recovered rapidly, but long - process steel - mill demand has recovered slowly. Steel - mill inventories are still at a low level [11] Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both coke supply and demand are increasing, and the iron - water复产 speed may be faster. The spot cost is rising, and the expectation of a spot price increase is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. After the lifting of production restrictions, both supply and demand of coke have recovered. With the rising energy valuation due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost is rising, and the willingness to raise spot prices has emerged again [12] - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will remain the focus of coking - coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to fundamentals, there will be downward pressure on the futures prices. Domestic coal - mine supply has room for a slight increase, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. After the lifting of production restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased slightly [13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese - ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, in the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction in the valuation level of the futures market above the cost due to the loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transfer. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited. The cost of manganese ore is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to pick up with the start of the peak season. However, the supply may increase, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products in the current geopolitical environment is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventories will always suppress prices. The spot price is low, and glass manufacturers are suffering large - scale losses. Downstream demand has not recovered, and middle and downstream restocking has led to a reduction in upstream inventories. Energy - price increases have pushed up the expected cost of far - month contracts [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is currently stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted. The daily production decreased month - on - month. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has not changed much. The industry is still at the bottom of the cycle [16] Steel - Spot trading is performing well. After the weakening of environmental - protection production restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly led by building materials. Infrastructure investment growth at the beginning of the year is good, downstream resumption of work is progressing well, and rigid and restocking demands are slowly being released. Steel inventories have started to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals [9] Commodity Index - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial products index was 2583.01, up 1.73%. The steel - industry chain index on March 23, 2026, had a daily increase of 2.25%, a 5 - day increase of 2.11%, a 1 - month increase of 7.03%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.86% [104][106]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore price shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. In the medium to long term, new capacity will make the fundamentals looser, and macro - demand is under pressure both at home and abroad [25] - The short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal has intensified, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [42] - The support for ferroalloys has strengthened, but the demand from steel mills is weak, and the silicon - manganese inventory is at a historical high with great de - stocking pressure [57] - The supply pressure of soda ash persists, and the price trend may be affected by other sectors and macro - factors, with limited upward and downward space [69] - The price of float glass fluctuates due to the combined effects of supply, demand, and cost factors [91] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro Data**: In January - February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%, and the single - month steel consumption was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The decline trend has begun to stabilize. The automobile production in January - February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The steel consumption in the automotive industry decreased for two consecutive months. The infrastructure investment completion in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year [4][6][8] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts on March 23, 2026, showed certain changes compared with March 20. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had corresponding changes [10][15] - **Price Ratios**: The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 on March 23, 2026 [22] Iron Ore - **Price Situation**: The price shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The cost - end support comes from high - level crude oil and fuel shortage. The global shipping volume has marginally recovered, and the molten iron output has increased with the resumption of production by steel mills. The inventory at ports is being depleted slowly, and the structural shortage of spot goods supports the price. In the medium to long term, new capacity will make the fundamentals looser, and macro - demand is under pressure both at home and abroad [25] - **Price Data**: On March 23, 2026, the 01, 05, and 09 contract closing prices of iron ore were 762.5, 819, and 786.5 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [26][30] - **Fundamental Data**: On March 20, 2026, the daily average molten iron output was 228,150 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.2097 million tons, and other data such as global shipping volume, port inventory, and steel mill inventory also showed certain changes [37] Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high, and the price decline of Australian coal has narrowed the domestic - foreign price difference, intensifying the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. The price increase of coke chemical products has improved profits, and the operating rate is expected to increase. However, the profit pressure of downstream steel products has dragged down the resumption of molten iron production, and the supply - demand contradiction may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [42] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price differences and spot prices of coking coal and coke on March 23, 2026, showed certain changes compared with previous days, and the corresponding profit data also changed [43][44][45] Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The Australian hurricane has disturbed the shipping of manganese ore, and miners' price - holding has pushed up the manganese ore price. The strong coking coal provides cost support, enhancing the downward support for ferroalloys. The output of ferrosilicon has increased, while the output of silicomanganese remains low. The profitability of steel mills is limited, providing weak support for the demand for ferroalloys. The silicomanganese inventory is at a historical high, with great de - stocking pressure, and the manganese ore disturbance amplifies the price fluctuations [57] - **Data**: The daily data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese on March 23, 2026, showed changes in basis, price differences, and spot prices compared with previous days [58][60][61] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The daily production remains at a high level, the supply pressure persists, the rigid demand is stable but weak, the inventory performance is better than expected, and there is room for replenishment in the middle - stream, but the limited demand elasticity restricts the upward amplitude. The downward space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In the medium to long term, the high - level supply expectation remains unchanged, and the industrial contradiction needs further accumulation. The price trend may be affected by other sectors and macro - factors, and the upward and downward space is difficult to open up for the time being [69] - **Price Data**: On March 23, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash increased compared with March 20, and the price differences and basis also changed [70][71] Float Glass - **Market Situation**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, the daily melting volume has declined, the middle - stream inventory is relatively high, and there is a risk of negative feedback. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase. The demand needs to be verified. The increase in the price of petroleum coke at the cost end provides support, and the macro - sentiment and fluctuations in related sectors have a driving effect. The price fluctuates under the combined action of supply, demand, and cost [91] - **Price and Sales Data**: On March 23, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass increased compared with March 20, and the price differences, basis, and daily sales data also showed certain changes [92][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driving force has been formed. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - Due to resource - structural issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply of overseas iron ore is fluctuating at a high level with a marginal decline, and the demand side is gradually recovering after the end of production restrictions [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities has not ended, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the phased callback pressure of prices under the expectation of macro - recession and the high - volatility attribute under the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. The black sector is under relatively low pressure, and the withdrawal of funds that previously long - allocated non - ferrous metals and short - allocated black metals may support the prices of the black sector to some extent [9][14]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese ore end and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short term, the fundamentals for a significant price rebound are insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, coking coal prices are still optimistic, especially from June to October [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the cost providing strong support in the short term. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate and find a bottom, with the current fundamentals being weak [17][20]. - Float glass is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and soda ash is expected to continue a low - level wide - range oscillation trend [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.38%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 49,286 tons, a net increase of 7,610 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.3872 million lots, a net decrease of 62,026 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3297 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 522,795 tons, a net increase of 48,799 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.0982 million lots, a net decrease of 44,974 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Strategy Views - The real - estate data from January to February was still weak, and the support of the real - estate sector for steel demand was limited in the short term. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered quickly, and the inventory entered the destocking stage. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The overall steel fundamentals were in a "weak balance" state [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - On Friday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 815.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.99% (+ 8.00). The position changed by + 3294 lots to 450,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 880,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.39 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.82% [3]. Strategy Views - The overseas ore shipments in the latest period rebounded month - on - month. The shipments from Australia increased, those from Brazil remained basically stable, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased by 69,500 tons to 2.2815 million tons. The blast furnaces that resumed production were mainly in Hebei after the end of production restrictions, and it was expected that the pig - iron output would continue to rise. The port inventory decreased slightly from the high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased. Affected by resource - structural issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices oscillated at a high level [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 20, affected by the typhoon, the manganese - silicon futures strengthened significantly. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) once rose above 6600 yuan/ton or nearly 7% during the session and then gave back some gains in the late session, finally closing up 3.43% at 6400 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6200 yuan/ton, equivalent to 6390 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) followed the sentiment of manganese silicon and rose, closing up 1.85% at 5932 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton to the futures price [7]. Strategy Views - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon was still not ideal, but most of these factors had been priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon were good. The future market would be affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese ore end and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 20, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.99% at 1171.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1464.9 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1272.5 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 101.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1304.5 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 133.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1215 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a discount of 44 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 1.13% at 1740.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1725.5 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1710.5 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - In the short term, the fundamentals for a significant price rebound of coking coal and coke were insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, coking coal prices were still optimistic, especially from June to October. However, the high volatility of oil and gas would also bring high volatility to coking coal prices [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - On Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8455 yuan/ton, with a change of + 2.05% (+ 170). The weighted contract position changed by - 4914 lots to 374,013 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 645 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 345 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures - market price [16]. - On Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 37,765 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.04% (- 785). The weighted contract position changed by + 340 lots to 51,255 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 42 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 43.5 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 5735 yuan/ton [18][19]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon continued to rise slightly, and the demand improvement was weak. The cost could provide strong support in the short term, and the price was expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of polysilicon were weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to oscillate and find a bottom [17][20]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1065 yuan/ton, down 0.09% (- 1) from the previous day. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million cases, a net decrease of 1.413 million cases (- 1.86%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 4049 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 25,370 lots [22]. - On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1217 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+ 6) from the previous day. The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1207 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.8538 million tons, a net decrease of 77,900 tons (- 1.86%) from the previous week, including 890,700 tons of heavy - soda - ash inventory, a net decrease of 27,400 tons, and 963,100 tons of light - soda - ash inventory, a net decrease of 50,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 1998 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 6617 lots [24]. Strategy Views - For float glass, the supply contraction provided some support, but the high inventory and weak demand restricted the price increase. It was expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. For soda ash, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory decreased slightly. It was expected to continue a low - level wide - range oscillation trend [23][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward. The closing price of the main contract SA2605 decreased by 5.87% compared to the previous week, reaching 1,202 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,190 yuan/ton, a 5.18% drop from the previous week [3]. - The supply of soda ash is showing a downward trend as enterprise maintenance begins. Next week, the expected operating rate is 82%, and the output is over 780,000 tons. Market sentiment has weakened, new - price transactions are average, and production and sales are maintained. Downstream demand is average, mainly on a need - to - buy basis, with low - price restocking. Consumption is stable with little overall fluctuation and no obvious new additions. The downstream's intention to restock at the new price has weakened, and they are mainly consuming inventory. As of March 19, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8538 million tons, a 4.03% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period [3]. - In the short term, soda ash is more affected by macro - sentiment and is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,277 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.87%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1,255 yuan/ton to 1,190 yuan/ton, a 5.18% decrease. The main basis decreased from - 22 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton, a decline of 45.45% [8]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,190 yuan/ton, a 5.18% decrease from the previous week [14]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 25.30 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is 227.5 yuan/ton [17]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87%, and the weekly output is 818,100 tons, including 434,000 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high [20][22]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are planned new production capacities for soda ash. In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [23]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 101.92% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 145,800 tons, and the operating rate is 70.41% [29]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash is 1.8538 million tons, a 4.03% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: There is little cold - repair of downstream float glass, and the output remains stable [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved. The second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased its operating load, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. The heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6][7].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Since February 28, 2026, due to continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflicts and suspension of production in giant oil fields, international crude oil prices have risen sharply. During this period, soda ash futures prices first rose and then fell. The 05 contract of soda ash initially followed the crude oil price increase, reaching a maximum of 1330 yuan/ton, but then declined and has now returned to the level before the conflict [2][13]. - On the cost side, domestic soda ash production enterprises mainly use coal as energy, accounting for about 1/3 of production costs. The Middle - East conflict has led to a surge in overseas coal prices, but the short - term impact on domestic soda ash costs is relatively limited. If domestic coal prices follow the upward trend, it may support soda ash costs [2][21]. - On the supply side, since the second half of 2023, driven by high profits, the soda ash industry has rapidly expanded its production capacity. In January - February 2026, 355 million tons of new capacity were added, and the total domestic soda ash capacity reached 44.65 million tons. It is estimated that in 2026, the soda ash output will increase by about 5.4%, or 2 million tons, deepening the oversupply situation [3][28]. - On the demand side, in 2026, the demand for heavy soda ash from the floating glass and photovoltaic industries is weak, dragging down the overall demand. It is estimated that the total annual demand for soda ash will decrease by 5.1% year - on - year, a net reduction of 1.9 million tons, with heavy soda ash demand down 20% (a net reduction of 4.22 million tons) and light soda ash demand up 138% (a net increase of 2.32 million tons) [3][75]. - In terms of net exports, the Middle - East conflict has limited impact on the global soda ash supply - demand pattern. China's soda ash has significant cost advantages, and it is estimated that the net export of soda ash in 2026 will reach 3.09 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [4][76]. - On the inventory side, it is expected that the supply will increase by 5.4% and the demand will decrease by 5.1% in 2026. The soda ash supply - demand will remain loose. The inventory may be relatively stable in the first half of the year and will continue to rise in the second half, with the total inventory possibly accumulating to 3.6 million tons by the end of the year [5][83]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Middle - East Geopolitical Conflicts Disturb Soda Ash Prices, Which First Rise and Then Fall - From February 28 to March 19, WTI crude oil prices rose to $96.14 per barrel, a 68% increase from the beginning of the year, and Brent crude oil futures prices rose to $108.65 per barrel, a nearly 79% increase. The 05 contract of soda ash futures first rose to 1330 yuan/ton and then fell back to 1217 yuan/ton as of March 19 [13]. - In March, the national mainstream average price of heavy soda ash was 1293 yuan/ton, with a slight month - on - month increase. As the futures price declined, the spot price also weakened, and the basis narrowed slightly [16]. - The short - term impact of the Middle - East conflict on domestic soda ash costs is limited. Recently, coal prices have fluctuated downward, and the production profits of the combined - alkali and ammonia - alkali methods have rebounded slightly. The profit of the combined - alkali method is 227.5 yuan, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is about - 25.3 yuan [21]. II. New Production Capacity Continues to Be Put into Use, and Soda Ash Production Reaches a New High - From 2023 - 2025, domestic new soda ash production capacity was 3.95 million tons, 2.6 million tons, and 1.8 million tons respectively. In January - February 2026, 3.55 million tons of new capacity were added, and the total capacity reached 44.65 million tons. There are still new production capacity projects after 2026, and the industry will remain in the production - expansion cycle in the next two years [28]. - In the first quarter of 2026, the operating rate of soda ash enterprises was around 85%. From January - February, the total national soda ash production was 6.49 million tons, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. Considering the new production capacity and summer maintenance, it is estimated that the monthly production in 2026 will remain at a high level of about 3.32 million tons, with an annual increase of about 5.4% or 2 million tons [33][42]. III. Floating Glass Cold - Repair Continues, and Photovoltaic Overcapacity Restricts Soda Ash Demand - Affected by the real - estate industry, the daily melting volume of floating glass has declined, and enterprises' profits have been squeezed. The photovoltaic industry has overcapacity, with an operating rate of less than 60%. In the first quarter of 2026, the total daily melting volume of floating and photovoltaic glass decreased by 5% year - on - year, and the corresponding heavy soda ash consumption also decreased by 5% [46]. - The adjustment of the photovoltaic product export tax - refund policy has led to a "rush - to - export" situation, which has temporarily boosted the production of photovoltaic components and battery chips but has also overdrawn future demand. However, the continuous Middle - East conflict may support photovoltaic demand [53]. - The demand for light soda ash in the first quarter was relatively strong. It is estimated that the apparent demand for light soda ash from January - February 2026 increased by 17.5% year - on - year. The demand for heavy soda ash from photovoltaic glass may decline in the future [67][70]. - Overall, it is estimated that in 2026, the total demand for soda ash will decrease by 5.1% year - on - year, a net reduction of 1.9 million tons, mainly due to the decline in heavy soda ash demand [75]. IV. The Middle - East Conflict Has Limited Impact, and Soda Ash Exports May Further Increase - In recent years, due to low domestic soda ash prices, exports have continued to increase. In 2025, the export volume was 2.1 million tons, and from January - February 2026, the cumulative export volume was 400,000 tons, a 39% year - on - year increase. - The Middle - East conflict has limited impact on the global soda ash supply - demand pattern. China's soda ash cost advantage may lead to further substitution of overseas enterprises. It is estimated that the net export of soda ash in 2026 will reach 3.09 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [76][80]. V. The Total Soda Ash Inventory May Continue to Rise - In recent years, the problem of soda ash overcapacity has become more prominent, and inventory in all aspects has increased. As of now, the total inventory of the three major links (production enterprises, glass factories, and delivery warehouses) has reached 2.76 million tons, at an absolute high level in the same period [79]. - It is expected that in 2026, the supply - demand of soda ash will remain loose. The inventory may be stable in the first half of the year and will rise in the second half, possibly reaching 3.6 million tons by the end of the year [83]. VI. Summary - The Middle - East conflict has led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, while soda ash futures prices first rose and then fell. - The short - term impact of the conflict on domestic soda ash costs is limited, but if domestic coal prices rise, it may support costs. - The soda ash industry's production capacity is still expanding, and the output is expected to increase in 2026, deepening the oversupply. - The demand for soda ash from the floating glass and photovoltaic industries is weak, and the total demand is expected to decline in 2026. - Soda ash exports are expected to increase in 2026 due to China's cost advantages. - The soda ash inventory is expected to continue rising in 2026, and the supply - demand will remain loose. The conflict mainly brings emotional and cost - side disturbances to the domestic soda ash market, and it is difficult to reverse the substantial supply - demand contradiction [85][88]. Strategy Wait for the geopolitical conflict to ease and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [6][89].