Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

期货日报记者在采访中了解到，玻璃、纯碱期价大幅上涨的主要原因是政策预期改善带来的估值修复，宏观与产业层面多重信号共振，市场风险偏好回 升。 宏观层面，本周召开的2026年央行工作会议释放利多信号，明确提出继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。 中信建投（601066）期货能化高级分析师胡鹏认为，这一表述为宏观预期改善筑牢基础，会议强调加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度、保持流动性充裕，不仅 能为经济稳定增长营造良好的货币金融环境，也能带动大宗商品市场看多情绪回暖。 产业层面，"反内卷"政策持续推进。2025年12月，陕西省发展改革委发布差别电价政策，对铁合金、烧碱等7个限制类产能的电价每千瓦时加价0.1元，淘 汰类产能加价幅度更高，落后产能有望加速出清。与此同时，玻璃、纯碱产业结构调整持续深化，2025年沙河地区加快玻璃企业"煤改气"进程，湖北计划 在2026年8月底之前完成玻璃企业清洁能源改造，等等。上述举措进一步为期货价格反弹提供助力。 此外，成本端与产销端的变化也为玻璃、纯碱价格上涨提供了有力支撑。 玻璃方面，据国投期货高级分析师周小燕介绍，近期沙河及湖北地区产销态势转好，行业有 ...

纯碱产量将显著增加，尽管产能增幅放缓至 0.58%，但产量增幅预计达到 5.65%，全年总产量可能达到 4,100 万吨。这主要是由于部分新增产能将在今 年逐步实现满负荷生产。 需求方面，重质纯碱需求疲软。浮法玻璃和光伏玻璃 两大主要下游板块需求下降明显。浮法玻璃日熔量持续下降，截至去年 12 月 底降至 14.96 万吨以下。而光伏玻璃虽然整体需求相对稳定，但库存压力较大， 并且存在堵窑口风险，即不再消耗纯碱但保持生产线运行。 轻质纯碱需求表现 良好，下游如碳酸锂、环保行业（污水处理）及传统行业（如碳酸氢钠）消费 量增加。据估算，2025 年轻质纯碱需求同比增幅达 9.8%，增量约 50-60 万 吨。这种增长趋势有助于部分抵消重质纯碱需求疲软带来的压力。 综上所述， 尽管短期内供需格局依然偏弱，但政策支持和轻质纯碱需求增长可能为未来提 供一定支撑。然而，由于供应压力仍然存在，需要密切关注政策变化及其对市 场的影响。 纯碱、尿素行业专家交流 20260106 摘要 2024 年纯碱价格下跌，目前估值较低，需关注房地产托底政策及石化、 能化产业政策对市场的影响，这些政策可能带动下游行业回暖。 2025 年纯碱 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-07 市场情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：下游消费持稳，玻碱震荡上涨 市场分析 玻璃方面，昨日玻璃盘面震荡上行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡上涨，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。纯碱厂库大幅增长，价格压 力显现。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾相对有限，供给有所下降，伴随需求转弱，库存环比回升。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目投产，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，持 续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：硅铁电费影响，盘面快速拉涨 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日锰硅盘面小幅上涨，整体情绪有所好转。硅锰市场震荡运行，市场观望情 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-1-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1135元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1190元/吨，基差为-55元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存140.83万吨，较前一周减少2.10%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，202 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-01-07 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3111 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.225%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.29 万手，环比增加 14597 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3263 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 15 元/吨（0.461%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 127 ...

| 期现日报 | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | 2026年1日7日 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | | | | | | 0.71% | 1694 | 1682 | 12 | 01合约 | 1778 | 10 | 05合约 | 1768 | 0.57% | 元/1中 | | | 09合约 | 1730 | 15 | 0.87% | 1745 | 2215 | 78 | 3.52% | 甲醇主力合约 | 2293 | | | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 車位 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | 2.33% | 01合约-05合约 | -84 | -86 | 2 | -13.16% | 05合约-09合约 | 33 | 38 | -2 | 丁C/四中 | | | 09合约-01合约 | 48 | 3 | 6.25% | 51 ...

宁证期货投资咨询中心 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 投资咨询证号： Z0015369 F3040522 目录 供需过剩有待改善，预计震荡偏弱 摘 要： 供应端：2026 年纯碱将迎来集中投产潮，全年新增产能超 550 万吨，总产 能将逼近 4700 万吨，纯碱供应有望继续增加，纯碱供应过剩的格局或进一步强 化。远兴能源阿拉善二期 280 万吨/年天然碱预计将进入满负荷运行，是最大的 新增产能来源。 蒯三可 | | | | | | | 图表目录 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第 | 1 章 | | 纯碱价格全年震荡下行 | 4 | | 第 | 2 章 | | 供应端分析 | 5 | | | | 2.1 | 仍有新产能投放预期 | 5 | | | | 2.2 | 纯碱开工高位震荡 | 6 | | | | 2.3 | 纯碱利润低位震荡运行 | 6 | | | | 2.4 | 纯碱出口量同比显著上升 7 | | | | | 2.5 | 全年纯碱厂家库存上升至高位 8 | | | 第 | 3 章 | | 需求端分析 | 9 | | | | 3.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation", with some varieties having specific ratings such as "oscillation", "oscillation - biased upward", and "oscillation - biased downward" [5] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's emphasis on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery has led to a warm macro - sentiment. There are still expectations of hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking, with iron ore prices remaining strong and coal and coke prices recovering from lows. The fundamentals of steel in the off - season have limited highlights, but cost support is strong, and the futures prices have rebounded from lows. The glass and soda ash futures follow the sector and perform strongly [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have limited highlights. Before the Spring Festival, continue to focus on the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and furnace material prices still have the potential to rise from lows, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits [5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The port inventory is continuously accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The复产 of hot metal and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks upward momentum, but the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, which supports demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the coke supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The space for further spot price cuts is limited, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [2] - Coking coal: As the year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in futures and spot prices [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand for manganese silicon continues, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price may gradually fall back to the cost valuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the upstream supply pressure of ferrosilicon has been relieved, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The short - term futures price is expected to remain high. However, if the spot price is significantly adjusted upwards due to the influence of futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: The cost is strong, and the futures price has rebounded from lows. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak. Although the fundamentals of rebar still have resilience and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [7][8] - Iron ore: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures and spot prices are rising. The supply side has expectations of disturbances, and the demand side has an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. The ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Scrap steel: Steel mills' arrivals are at a low level, and the price oscillates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, so the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures price first weakens and then strengthens. The cost side has stabilized, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [12][13] - Coking coal: The online auctions show mixed results, and the night - session futures of commodities generally rise. As the year approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is upward momentum in prices [14] - Glass: The commodity sentiment has recovered, and the valuation premium has rebounded. The supply has expectations of disturbances, and the inventory is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15] - Soda ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the sentiment drives the valuation to repair. The supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center will decline in the long run [17] - Manganese silicon: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel tender prices. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price may fall back to the cost valuation in the medium term [18] - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The upstream supply pressure has been relieved, but attention should be paid to the potential resurgence of supply pressure [20]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 纯碱当日行情： 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯 ...