Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [7][10][12][14][15]. Core Viewpoints - The black spot market has been mediocre recently, with capital issues not significantly alleviated and weak terminal demand making it difficult for spot prices to rise. The futures market is more driven by expectations, and with the improving domestic and international macro - environment, the overall commodity valuation has increased. The furnace materials with relatively more certain demand perform better than finished products. After the price spike, it is advisable to wait and see for the next two weeks to observe the sustainability of steel demand [1]. - The "anti - involution" - related production cut expectations' positive impact has temporarily ended. The price increase has affected the export orders of finished products, and the spot price increase is weak. The black futures prices have slightly corrected. The industrial fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the degree of demand weakening [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: On July 4, 2025, Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils, and the US President will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline. High prices have limited downstream purchasing willingness. After the rainy season, the supply and demand of rebar have both increased, and the inventory has continued to decline; the supply of hot - rolled coils has increased while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory change is limited [7]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel are not prominent, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariff disturbances are continuous. After the steel price increase, the steel export pressure shows signs of marginal weakening. It is expected that the short - term steel price will oscillate [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: This week, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter production rush, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but is lower than expected. The steel enterprises' iron water output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, the port inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Outlook: The iron ore demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions are not obvious. After this round of increase, the futures price has reached an important pressure level. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate in the short - term [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand has also declined. The long - and short - process total daily consumption of scrap steel has decreased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased [8]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and it is expected that the price will oscillate after the macro - environment cools down [8]. Coke - Core Logic: The supply and demand of coke have both declined. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, while a small number have reduced production due to profit pressure. The steel mills' iron water output has decreased, but the demand for coke remains strong [10]. - Outlook: There is an expectation of a price increase in the coke market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the iron water output and coal mine resumption [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Two coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the overall supply is gradually recovering. The Mongolian coal port transactions are active, but the port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. The short - term demand for coking coal remains, but the market is waiting and seeing due to the expectation of coal mine resumption [10]. - Outlook: The coal mine supply is expected to recover, but the short - term demand remains strong. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate [10]. Glass - Core Logic: In the off - season, the demand for glass has decreased, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [12]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, and the futures price has rebounded due to the expected production cuts. In the short - term, the positive feedback may be strong, but in the long - term, it still needs market - based capacity reduction. It is expected that the price will oscillate [12]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply capacity of soda ash has not been cleared, and the supply pressure remains. The heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand, while the light - soda ash demand is weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [12]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are planned maintenance in July. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the price center will decline in the long - term [12]. Ferromanganese - Core Logic: The price of manganese ore has slightly decreased. The supply of ferromanganese has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand is expected to decline slightly as the steel production may decrease in the off - season [14]. - Outlook: The cost push is insufficient, and the supply - demand relationship of ferromanganese is becoming looser. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost of ferrosilicon is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand from the steel and metal magnesium industries has uncertainties. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but the future supply - demand gap may be filled [15]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, but the price increase driving force is insufficient. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate; soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly; and ferromanganese is expected to oscillate [6][8][9][10][14][15][17][18]. Core View of the Report - Affected by the news that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, the black building materials sector was strong on Monday. The main reason is that the black sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall supply and demand of the industry have strengthened month - on - month, with no pressure on inventory, but the market's outlook for future demand remains pessimistic, and the market is in an oscillatory consolidation stage [1][2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals have increased seasonally, and port inventories have slightly increased. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventories, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Focus on the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises [2]. Carbon Element - Recently, environmental and safety inspections in major production areas have become stricter, resulting in a continuous decline in coking coal production, but the overall supply contraction is limited. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is weak, and port clearance remains at a low level. On the demand side, coke production has declined from its high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprises' operations. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, and the overall amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited. The upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, and the structural inventory problem has not improved significantly. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, increasing the difficulty of downstream procurement bargaining. Some factories have plans to resume production, and a new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the month, so ferromanganese production may continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and the market sentiment for manganese ore has improved. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are poor, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average, and the terminal steel demand is about to enter the off - season. The downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and prices lack the impetus to rise [3]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken month - on - month, and the upstream inventory has accumulated, with off - season pressure still existing, although the sales in Shahe have slightly improved. On the supply side, a 1000 - ton production line has started producing glass, a 700 - ton production line has been cold - repaired, and four more production lines are waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure remains. The actual demand in the off - season faces certain pressure, the market price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. As maintenance gradually resumes, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: This week, the overall supply and demand have strengthened month - on - month, but inventory is still being reduced. The main factor suppressing the market price is the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the price of finished products is under pressure. Electric furnaces are operating at a loss during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market's expectation of price stability has increased, but there are still differences in views on the future. The coke enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is insufficient. There is downward pressure on coke prices in the medium term [10][11][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The market supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the high upstream inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and stably [14]. - **Silicon Manganese**: There is an expectation of increased production, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, so the supply and demand tend to be loose. However, due to cost - price inversion, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices. There is an expectation of increased production from some manufacturers, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [5][9][16] - Specific product ratings: - Steel: oscillating [7] - Iron ore: oscillating [7][9] - Scrap steel: oscillating [8] - Coke: oscillating weakly [8][10] - Coking coal: oscillating weakly [11][13] - Glass: oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: oscillating weakly [12][14] - Ferrosilicon: oscillating [15][16] - Silicomanganese: oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction in the coking coal market has increased, and the prices of the black series have rebounded as a whole. However, due to the approaching off - season of domestic construction and manufacturing industries and the under - expected "rush for exports", the demand is difficult to increase, so the rebound height is limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy orientation [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Black Building Materials Market - **Supply and demand situation**: The domestic demand is seasonally weakening, and the "rush for exports" in the manufacturing industry is under - expected. The off - season trend remains unchanged. Electric furnaces and some blast furnaces have started to make losses, and the molten iron is expected to decline, but the overall profitability provides some support to the cost side [2][3][5] - **Rebound driver**: Low valuation combined with news speculation brings rebound drive, but the height is limited [2][3][5] 3.2 Specific Product Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - **Core logic**: The prices of raw materials rebounded, but the fundamentals changed little. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and there are still expectations of tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand expectation is still weak. The molten iron is at a high level, and the steel output has increased. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week, and the inventory has decreased, but the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand suppress the futures price [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved this week, but the expectation is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Core logic**: The overseas supply increment is lower than expected, the cumulative annual shipment has decreased year - on - year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down. The steel enterprises' profitability and order status are still good, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small. Affected by the coking coal news, the iron ore price has also increased slightly [3][7] - **Outlook**: If the molten iron can stop falling around 240,000 tons per day as expected and the macro sentiment warms up, the price is expected to continue to rise, but the upside space is limited, and the 09 contract will oscillate in a wide range [7] 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - **Core logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume is low, and the electric furnace valley - electricity is in a loss state. The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded slightly, and the total inventory has decreased slightly. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has decreased. The inventory in the factory has increased slightly [8] - **Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace valley - electricity loss has intensified. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [8] 3.2.4 Coke - **Core logic**: The expectation of coking coal supply tightening has increased, but the actual supply - demand remains loose. The supply of coke is stable, but the inventory has accumulated. The demand is weakening, and the cost support is insufficient [8][10] - **Outlook**: The coking coal price is continuously falling, and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the short - term upward trend of the futures price will be difficult to sustain [10] 3.2.5 Coking Coal - **Core logic**: The expectation of supply tightening has increased due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase. However, the actual supply is still loose, the demand is expected to decline, and the upstream inventory pressure is increasing [4][11] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of coking coal remains loose, and the high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [11] 3.2.6 Glass - **Core logic**: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, the deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. The daily melting volume is stable, and the price is low, which inhibits the resumption of production. The inventory in the upstream is expected to increase, and the inventory in the middle reaches has decreased. The futures price oscillates due to news and sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The price cut of Hubei's spot goods leads the futures price to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the price - cut range of Hubei's manufacturers, and the short - term view is oscillating weakly [12] 3.2.7 Soda Ash - **Core logic**: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by the coal market news, the price has fluctuated, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [12][14] - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [14] 3.2.8 Ferrosilicon - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of ferrosilicon has rebounded from a low level. The supply has increased slightly, but the demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is cautious [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The cost may still have a drag effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel procurement and production situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] 3.2.9 Silicomanganese - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of silicomanganese has rebounded from a low level. The cost is weakly stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [14] - **Outlook**: The supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand is becoming looser. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell due to cost inversion. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]