Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Recently, the supply side of pulp has been disrupted again, but the demand side is weak. Pulp lacks a clear trading logic and is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On February 4, 2026, the SP2601 futures price was 5520 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day and down 1.15% week - on - week. The SP2609 spot price was 5374 yuan/ton, up 0.94% day - on - day and down 0.85% week - on - week. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.12% week - on - week. The price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.92% week - on - week. The price of broadleaf pulp Gold Fish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [5]. - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: The external quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month. Its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month. The external quote of Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month, and its import cost was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% month - on - month. The external quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month. The import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month. The shipment volume of pulp to China in November 2025 was 178 (in ten - tons), up 3.00% month - on - month. As of January 29, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 24 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, and day - card paper decreased, while the production of tissue paper increased slightly. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with a slight increase in tissue paper prices and stable prices for other paper products [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 tons, an increase of 10.1 tons from the previous period, a 4.9% increase. The inventory has continued to accumulate in this cycle, and the port sample inventory has shown a trend of accumulation for four consecutive weeks [5].

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: February 5, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for pulp, crude oil asphalt, PTA, MEG, polyolefins, and glass soda ash [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 05 had a previous settlement price of 5,286 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,324 yuan/ton, rising 0.72% overall. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,700 - 5,600 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price, with the Shandong Yinxing quotation at 5,370 - 5,380 yuan/ton [7]. - For other contracts: - SP2609 had an opening price of 5,334 yuan/ton, a high of 5,380 yuan/ton, a low of 5,330 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5,370 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. - SP2701's high was 5,520 yuan/ton, and the price change was 0.1%. [7] Industry Situation - Suzano announced a $10/ton price increase for the Asian market in February 2026, and the FOB quotation continued to rise. - In November, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.6% and hardwood pulp down 7.3%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. - In December 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports was 1.5086 million tons, up 8.6% month - on - month and 4.4% year - on - year. - In December 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, down 4.1% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year. - As of January 29, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.1199 million tons, up 4.96% month - on - month. - On the demand side, the pulp - purchasing rhythm of downstream paper mills slowed down, some small and medium - sized mills planned to close, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market weakened. - In the short term, pulp prices are restricted by the sector's influence and weak downstream procurement, experiencing a correction and maintaining a wide - range oscillating trend. [8] Group 3: Industry News - On February 4, news reported that the EU - India trade agreement opened up the market for pulp, paper, cardboard, and recycled paper. The agreement, signed on January 27, 2026, included the gradual removal of tariff barriers for over 90% of traded goods, which was expected to significantly boost bilateral trade. Recycled paper, pulp, cardboard, and processed products (e.g., packaging and printing materials under HS codes 47 - 49) were also included in the tariff agreement. In 2024, the EU imported wood pulp, paper, and cardboard worth 249 million euros from India, while its exports to India reached 1.07 billion euros. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences in Shandong Yinxing, softwood - hardwood price differences in Shandong, cross - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of CCB Futures. [7][15][23]

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a staged rebound, but the overall upside is limited. Operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying within the range [4] Summary by Category Coking Coal - Indonesia's government's large - scale production cut plan has led to miners suspending spot coal exports. Some companies' 2026 production quotas may be cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025, causing export quotes to skyrocket and driving the A - share coal sector to a daily limit and coking coal futures to strengthen [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines in major production areas are starting to arrange for holidays and production suspension, leading to a seasonal low in supply. However, the Mongolian coal customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, with relatively sufficient imports. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, and the fundamentals improve marginally [3] - The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with the 1,300 - yuan integer mark being a strong resistance level. The recent rally lacked volume, which may trigger profit - taking by funds. Macroscopically, market trading activity decreases as the Spring Festival approaches, and speculative demand shrinks [3] Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded after hitting the bottom today, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the gap. It is facing short - term pressure near the current level, and it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for now [6][7] Gold - Gold prices continue to decline sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through the platform support and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has changed little, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today, and the trading idea has turned to oscillating bullishly [15][16] Methanol - As the Spring Festival approaches, the methanol market has abundant supply and weakening demand. Enterprises are smoothly clearing their inventories but mostly selling at low prices. The market lacks positive support, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term [18] Pulp - From the perspective of the pulp fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month since the end of last year, driving the pulp price to bottom out and rebound. However, the recovery of domestic terminal consumption is still slow, which should limit the speed and space of price increases. The futures market has shown an oscillating pattern in the recent period [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - Recent disturbances have resurfaced on the pulp supply - side, while the demand - side shows a decline. The overall commodity market has been highly volatile recently, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On February 3, 2026, SP2601 was 5464 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.44% and a weekly decrease of 1.69%; SP2609 was 5324 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly decrease of 1.26%; SP2605 was 5276 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly decrease of 1.24% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On February 3, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5320 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.12%; Russian coniferous pulp was 5100 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 1.92%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The foreign quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no month - on - month change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% compared to the previous period; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton with no change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the shipment of coniferous pulp to China was 77.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.31%, and broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.40%. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed some fluctuations from December 2025 to January 2026 [5] - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous period. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses also fluctuated during the same period. The port sample inventory has been accumulating for four consecutive weeks [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed some decline. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with a slight increase in tissue paper prices and stable prices for other paper products [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The recent supply side of pulp has seen disruptions again, but the demand side shows a decline. The overall commodity market has been highly volatile recently. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On February 2, 2026, SP2601 was 5440 yuan/ton, down 1.13% day-on-day and 2.33% week-on-week; SP2609 was 5306 yuan/ton, down 0.82% day-on-day and 2.21% week-on-week; SP2605 was 5266 yuan/ton, down 0.64% day-on-day and 2.01% week-on-week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On February 2, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5320 yuan/ton, down 1.12% day-on-day and 1.48% week-on-week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5150 yuan/ton, down 0.96% day-on-day and 1.90% week-on-week; the price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.08% week-on-week [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Production**: The production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly from December 2025 to January 2026 [5] - **Pulp Port Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream port samples was 216.9 tons, up 4.9% compared to the previous period, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend for four weeks [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also fluctuated from December 2025 to January 2026 [5] - **Finished Paper Production**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard decreased to varying degrees [5] Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, Chilean Arauco's coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer of broadleaf pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer of natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand Side**: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has increased slightly, and the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper has decreased [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of January 29, 2026, the inventory in Chinese pulp mainstream ports continued to accumulate [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recently, the concentrated registration of pulp futures warrants limits the further upward space. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly loosened, and the overall outlook is bearish [6]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 29, 2026, SP2601 was priced at 5,584 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 1.01%; SP2609 was 5,420 yuan/ton with a 0.52% daily and 0.44% weekly rise; SP2605 was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily and 0.26% weekly [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,380 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.37% weekly; Russian Needle was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.95% weekly; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 1.08% weekly [5]. - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's foreign quote rose 2.94% to 700 dollars/ton, and its import cost increased 2.91% to 5,721 yuan/ton; Japanese West American Fish's foreign quote rose 1.89% to 540 dollars/ton, and Brazil's Huiyu's import cost increased 1.87% to 4,425 yuan/ton; Chilean Venus's foreign quote remained at 620 dollars/ton, and its import cost stayed at 5,073 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In December 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 77.8 tons, a 7.31% monthly increase; hardwood pulp imports were 135.2 tons, a 23.40% monthly decrease. The shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a 3.00% increase. From January 22 - 29, 2026, hardwood pulp production was 24 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper decreased. Double - offset paper production was 18.70 tons; coated paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 29.87 tons; and cardboard was 33.10 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 216.9 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous period, and the port sample inventory had been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5].

| 2026年1月27日 | | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年1月27日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SP2601 | 期货价格 | 5558 | -0.22% | 0. 14% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5380 | -0. 37% | -1.28% | | SP2609 | (元/吨) | 5392 | -0. 63% | -0. 33% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5200 | -0. 95% | -0. 95% | | SP2605 | | 5342 | -0. 60% | -0. 63% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4600 | -1.08% | -1.08% | | 本期价格 | | | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 智利银星 | 外盘报价 | 700 | 680 | 2.94% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5559 | 2.91% | | 巴西金鱼 | (美元/吨) | 54 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The cotton market is in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for policy drivers. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short - term, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic cotton market has increased production and consumption, with a possible tight inventory at the end of the year [1][2] - The sugar market has a short - term tight trade flow in the first quarter, which may support the price. In the second quarter, the supply will be more abundant. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with limited downward space [3][4] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, but the domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [5][6] Group 3: Cotton Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.31%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [1] - In December 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 25,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.78%. The export amount was 98 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.42%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn was 332,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.48%, and the export amount was 1.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.23% [1] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated and closed down. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short - term, and the US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic cotton production has increased significantly, and the commercial inventory has increased seasonally. Although the downstream yarn spindle capacity has expanded, the new orders have decreased, and the finished product inventory is at a relatively high level [2] Strategy - The short - term pre - holiday stocking still supports the cotton price, but the domestic market faces downstream transmission pressure and internal - external price difference pressure. It is expected to oscillate strongly. The medium - and long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price policy and area - reduction policy [3] Group 4: Sugar Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,172 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 24, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 41 sugar mills in Punjab, Pakistan were in operation, with a cumulative crushing of 24.89 million tons of sugarcane and a production of 2.329 million tons of refined sugar, an increase of 266,000 tons compared with the same period of the previous season. The paid sugarcane payment reached 92.57% of the total payable amount, higher than 87.81% in the same period of the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price was in a narrow - range consolidation. The Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the short - term export in the Northern Hemisphere is restricted, which may support the raw sugar price in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply will be more abundant. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with limited downward space [4] Strategy - The short - and medium - term sugar price should be treated with an oscillation - bottoming - building idea, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [3] Group 5: Pulp Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [5] - The import pulp spot market price showed a downward trend. The prices of some grades in different regions decreased to varying degrees [5] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly consolidated. The overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance news and the increase in foreign quotes promoted the pulp price rebound, but the global wood pulp inventory is still accumulating. The European port pulp inventory decreased in November, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [6] Strategy - Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy suggests a bearish stance for single - sided trading and advises to monitor overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices for arbitrage [3] Core View - The pulp market lacks fundamental drivers and is expected to fluctuate weakly. Supply is relatively strong, demand is neutral to bearish, and inventory is bearish, leading to an overall bearish outlook [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was $710/ton, up $10/ton; eucalyptus pulp Star was quoted at $590/ton, up $20/ton; and natural pulp Venus was quoted at $620/ton, unchanged [3] - **Demand**: This week, the price of tissue paper continued to rise, the price of coated paper fell, and the prices of offset paper and white cardboard were stable. Paper production decreased slightly due to maintenance. Most paper mills have gradually completed pre - Spring Festival stockpiling [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of Chinese pulp's mainstream port samples was 2.068 million tons, up 54,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The price of eucalyptus pulp declined slightly this week, paper mills' willingness to purchase coniferous pulp was average, and port inventory increased. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly. The single - sided trading strategy is bearish, and for arbitrage, pay attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Pulp futures continued to operate weakly this week. The price of eucalyptus pulp declined slightly, the basis of coniferous pulp strengthened slightly, and port inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. With the completion of pre - festival stockpiling, it is expected to continue to operate weakly [7] - **Spot Market**: The price of eucalyptus pulp weakened, and the basis of coniferous pulp strengthened. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of coniferous pulp Buzhen was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of eucalyptus pulp Jinyu was 4,620 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 180 yuan/ton month - on - month [9][15] - **January Foreign Offer**: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was $710/ton, up $10/ton; eucalyptus pulp Star was quoted at $590/ton, up $20/ton; and natural pulp Venus was quoted at $620/ton, unchanged [17] - **Pulp Position**: As of January 23, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 348,378 lots, up 7% from last week; the position of the main pulp futures contract was 260,129 lots, up 7% from last week [19] Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In December, the import volume of eucalyptus wood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, up 23.99%; the coniferous pulp import volume was 725,000 tons, up 4.92%; the eucalyptus pulp import volume was 1.765 million tons, up 33.88%; and the eucalyptus wood chip import volume was 1.49 million tons, up 55.69% [4] - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory increased, and futures warehouse receipts were slightly cancelled. Overseas pulp mill inventory days were basically stable, but according to PPPC, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers at the end of November was 46 days, with bleached softwood pulp at 49 days and bleached hardwood pulp at 45 days [29][34] - **Paper Price and Gross Margin**: As of January 23, 2026, the price of offset paper was 4,725 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of coated paper was 4,660 yuan/ton, down 0.43% week - on - week; the price of tissue paper was 5,875 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of white cardboard was 4,269 yuan/ton, down 0.12% week - on - week. As of January 23, 2025, the gross margin of offset paper was - 10.61%, up 0.42% week - on - week; the gross margin of coated paper was - 10.29%, down 0.10% week - on - week; the gross margin of tissue paper was 4.65%, up 0.44% week - on - week; the gross margin of white cardboard was - 5.84%, up 0.15% week - on - week [38] - **Downstream Demand**: In December 2025, the production of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The production of offset paper was 867,400 tons, up 9.7% month - on - month and 15.8% year - on - year; the production of coated paper was 409,200 tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 21.1% year - on - year; the production of tissue paper was 858,600 tons, up 3% month - on - month and 10.2% year - on - year; the production of white cardboard was 1.125 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and 30.4% year - on - year [46] - **Paper Inventory**: As of December 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.93 million tons, down 2.6% month - on - month and up 18% year - on - year; the inventory of coated paper was 1.278 million tons, down 1.1% month - on - month and up 14.6% year - on - year; the inventory of tissue paper was 346,200 tons, down 7.3% month - on - month and up 4% year - on - year; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.286 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and up 18.3% year - on - year [53] - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of January 23, 2025, the total inventory of double - offset paper was 1.9539 million tons, up 0.01% week - on - week, with mill inventory at 1.4079 million tons and social inventory at 546,000 tons. The available days of mill inventory were 30.53 days, up 0.1 day week - on - week. The production was 196,000 tons, down 6,900 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 52%, down 0.18% week - on - week. The production cost was 5,094 yuan/ton, down 0.6% week - on - week, and the production gross profit was - 451 yuan/ton, down 7% week - on - week [61][64][68] - **Overseas Market**: In December 2025, European coniferous pulp demand was 198,600 tons (down 7.1% month - on - month and 8.3% year - on - year); eucalyptus pulp demand was 476,000 tons (down 11.59% month - on - month and up 2.55% year - on - year). European coniferous pulp inventory was 222,800 tons (up 6.93% month - on - month and 0.71% year - on - year); eucalyptus pulp inventory was 493,800 tons (up 9.59% month - on - month and 15.53% year - on - year) [75] - **Spread**: As of January 23, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star was - 48 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of Shandong Jinyu was - 778 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from last week. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 44 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week [83]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].