1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - This report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple commodity futures and options, including livestock, soft commodities, and energy, and provides short - term and medium - term views and trading strategies for each variety. - **Livestock and Soft Commodities**: - **Pig**: The current supply and demand are both weak, with a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high [1][2]. - **Sugar**: It shows a short - term weak shock and a medium - term trend of rising first and then falling. It is advisable to sell high [3][4][5]. - **Energy**: - **Crude Oil**: It has a short - term weak shock and a medium - term downward pressure. Selling out - of - the - money call options on SC crude oil is recommended [6][7][8]. - **PVC**: It has a short - term range shock and limited upward space in the medium term. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options [9][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Short - term View**: Narrow - range shock [1] - **Medium - term View**: Near - strong and far - weak [1] - **Strategy**: Sell high [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: The average weight of pig slaughter is decreasing, and the weight - reduction rhythm is accelerating due to policy and temperature. The market's ability to digest pork is limited, and the demand for large pigs is in the off - season [1]. - **Demand**: The secondary fattening group may continue to enter the market due to low pig prices, low feed prices, and an expanding standard - fat price difference. Secondary fattening still has a continuous impact on pig prices [1]. - **Market**: The short - term supply - demand mismatch leads to a strong bullish sentiment, but the current supply - demand is weak, and there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise [2]. Sugar - **Short - term View**: Weak shock [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rising first and then falling [3] - **Strategy**: Sell high [4] - **Core Logic**: - **International**: The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 4.7% year - on - year, with a significant supply surplus. Brazil's gasoline price cut and expected production increase, as well as India's expected large - scale production increase, will put pressure on sugar prices in the medium and long term [4]. - **Domestic**: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the inventory pressure is small, but the import profit window is open, and the future supply pressure is the core factor restricting sugar prices. The current basis can support the market, but the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to be realized [5]. Crude Oil - **Short - term View**: Weak shock [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on SC crude oil [6] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: OPEC + will increase production in August, and may increase production significantly again in early August. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the growth rate of U.S. crude oil production will slow down in the long term [6][7]. - **Demand**: Although the refinery operating rates in major consuming countries are high, the downstream demand has not reached the peak season level. The demand for gasoline and diesel has limited growth [7]. - **Inventory**: The U.S. crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased, and commercial crude oil inventories will accumulate in the third quarter [8]. PVC - **Short - term View**: Range shock (4800 - 5000) [9] - **Medium - term View**: Limited upward space [9] - **Strategy**: Hold the strategy of selling out - of - the money call options [9] - **Core Logic**: - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide has increased, and the price has decreased [9]. - **Supply**: Some PVC plants are under maintenance, but there are new production capacity expectations, and the supply will increase significantly [9][10]. - **Demand**: The low - level rebound of PVC futures prices has boosted the replenishment willingness of some downstream enterprises, but the downstream operating rate is low, and the domestic demand will continue to weaken. The export has short - term support, but there is uncertainty in anti - dumping policies [10]. - **Inventory**: The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the PVC inventory has accumulated [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guide companies to improve product quality, and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This policy signal has led to a noticeable recovery in the sentiment of the bulk commodity market, with some investors anticipating market benefits similar to those from the supply-side structural reforms of 2016 [3][4]. Policy Impact Analysis - Different periods may have varying policy focuses, necessitating an in-depth analysis of the core impact range of policies. Attention should be directed towards industries with severe overcapacity, widespread losses, high proportions of outdated capacity, and strong policy constraints [4]. - Industries such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and PVC currently exhibit persistently low profit levels, aligning with the main objectives of policy regulation. The sustainability of profit improvement in these industries hinges on the enforcement strength of policies and the effectiveness of actual capacity clearance [4][5]. Historical Context - The aluminum industry serves as an example where strong policy constraints successfully led to sustained profit improvements during the last capacity reduction phase. Historical experience indicates that there is a certain lag between policy issuance and market rebound, ultimately relying on strict enforcement to achieve profit redistribution within the industry chain [4]. Current Industry Status - Leading companies in industries like polysilicon are beginning to formulate capacity optimization plans. However, due to differences in company nature, interest conflicts, and market constraints, the realization of substantial capacity clearance in the industry will require more time for validation [5]. Profit and Capacity Overview - A summary of key indicators for various bulk commodities, including profit levels, capacity concentration, and the nature of enterprises, has been compiled for reference [6]. - For example, the profit margins and capacity concentration for several commodities are as follows: - PVC: -13% profit margin, 40% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Polysilicon: -13.5% profit margin, 82.23% capacity concentration, private enterprises [10] - Urea: 20% profit margin, 28% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Copper products show varying profit margins, with electrolytic copper at 0.31% and lithium battery copper foil at 26.07% [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently lacking catalysts, leading to increased volatility pressure. The downward space for large-cap stocks is relatively limited under the support of the Central Huijin Investment. Short-term focus is recommended on defensive sectors such as banks and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][4] - New consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are facing higher adjustment risks in the short term, suggesting that investors should wait for risk release before seeking more cost-effective investment opportunities [2][4] Stock Market Factors - The large-cap value style remains dominant in the market, while the volatility of both large and small-cap styles has decreased. The volatility of value and growth styles is at a near-year low [6][8] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices is at a near-year low, with a decrease in the proportion of rising constituent stocks and an increase in industry rotation speed [6][8] - Market activity remains low, with the market volatility at a near-year low and a slight increase in turnover rate [7][8] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of black and precious metals has decreased, while the trend strength of agricultural products has increased. The basis momentum of precious metals and non-ferrous metals has rapidly declined [19][22] - The volatility of energy and precious metals has slightly increased, while other sectors remain at near-year low volatility levels. Liquidity performance is mixed across sectors, with the energy sector at a near-year high in liquidity [19][22] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 show no significant trend, with the implied volatility of CSI 1000 remaining at historically low levels. The skewness of put options for CSI 1000 has increased, indicating a temporary alleviation of market concerns regarding small-cap stocks [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - In the convertible bond market, valuations continue to rise, with the premium rate for bonds converting at 100 yuan increasing and approaching the peak seen in May. The proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums has significantly decreased, while market transaction volume remains stable within a fluctuating range [31]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical conflicts provide a new opportunity for shorting energy and chemical commodities, with expectations that the current conflicts are unlikely to escalate into prolonged wars, and the short-term price surges are driven more by panic than substance [4][43]. Group 1: Geopolitical Conflict and Energy Market - The current geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to have a short-term impact on energy prices, with the potential for a new bear market to emerge as the situation cools down [6][7]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is deemed unlikely, as it would harm both Iran and unrelated major powers, and current oil flow levels remain normal [7]. - The energy price surge is characterized as an event-driven emotional cycle, with expectations of a gradual de-escalation of conflicts leading to a return to normal pricing levels [7][43]. Group 2: Energy Consumption Trends - China's transition to renewable energy has reached a critical point, with significant declines in coal and oil consumption, indicating a peak in fossil fuel usage that will negatively impact future global demand growth [12][45]. - The increase in traditional energy production is being driven by China and OPEC+, with China's output rising despite demand peaking, contributing to downward pressure on energy prices [17][19]. Group 3: Global Economic Pressures - The combination of tariffs and high debt levels is expected to suppress global demand, with the U.S. shifting from a consumer to a more protectionist stance, which will further impact global trade dynamics [21][28]. - The high levels of debt across major economies limit their ability to stimulate domestic demand, exacerbating the challenges posed by reduced U.S. consumption and trade deficits [25][28]. Group 4: Market Strategy and Outlook - The overall outlook for energy and chemical commodities remains bearish, with expectations that prices will first decline in upstream markets like crude oil and methanol before affecting downstream products [34][41]. - The strategy suggests shorting crude oil and methanol at high points, while monitoring the market for signs of inventory accumulation and weakening basis levels [34][45].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term pig price may have a small - scale rebound, but in the long - term, it will maintain a weak trend due to the supply - demand imbalance [1][2]. - The sugar price will stop falling and rebound in the short - term but will be in a weak oscillation in the medium - to - long - term as the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus [3][4]. - The crude oil price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but will decline in the long - term as the supply increases and demand is restricted [5][7]. - PVC will run strongly in the short - term due to the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict, but its price may face pressure in the long - term as its supply - demand fundamentals are not strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of June 20, the average weight of national pig slaughter was 123.78kg, down 0.18kg from the previous week. Due to policy and temperature factors, scale enterprises are accelerating the weight reduction of pigs [1]. - **Demand**: On June 20, the slaughtering rate was 28.13%, slightly up from the previous week. However, consumer demand for pork is low in summer, limiting the further increase of the slaughtering rate [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a continued rise, the medium - term view is a weak operation after a phased rebound, and the recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies [1][2]. Sugar - **International**: Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, increasing the proportion of Brazilian sugar mills producing ethanol and reducing sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of May increased year - on - year. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to produce 1005 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons year - on - year. The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Imported sugar is expected to increase in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a stable rebound, the medium - term view is a weak oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: The US's raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated the Middle East situation. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, there is a risk of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel. Non - OPEC resources are expected to expand, and OPEC+ is maintaining a production - increasing strategy [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the US, the refinery operating rate has returned to normal levels, but the downstream demand is poor. In China, the operating rate of major refineries is approaching 80%, and the gasoline consumption has slightly improved, while diesel demand has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, while fuel inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks. Oil inventories are expected to accumulate, suppressing the upside of oil prices [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is high - level fluctuations, the medium - term view is a downward - pressured operation, and the recommended strategy is a combination of short futures positions and buying call options [5][7]. PVC - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide in the northwest region is tightening, and the demand from downstream is weakening. As of June 23, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained flat [8]. - **Supply**: The 200,000 - ton/year PVC device of Haohua stopped production last week. As of June 20, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - **Demand**: Some downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm is not significantly improved. The export situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year, but the current orders have not increased significantly [8][9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the social inventory of PVC was 355,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week and a decrease of 41.19% year - on - year [9]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is range - bound fluctuations, the medium - term view is limited driving force for continuous growth, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8][9].

【上周商品市场整体收涨，各板块走势分化】上周，商品市场整体收涨2.29%。其中，能化涨幅较大， 达4.11%；农产品和黑色分别上涨2.10%和0.91%；贵金属和有色金属分别下跌1.76%和0.09%。从具体品 种收盘价看，原油、甲醇和短纤涨幅居前，分别为8.82%、5.86%和5.31%；黄金、纸浆和白银跌幅较 大，分别为1.99%、1.50%和1.44%。资金方面有所下降，主要受贵金属资金流出影响。 展望后市，伊以 局势演化受关注，决定短期大类资产走向和定价逻辑。周末美国攻击伊朗核设施，市场有伊朗封锁霍尔 木兹海峡预期，能源价格偏强。但美国有维稳诉求，短期不确定性仍存，需观察伊朗反击力度。风险偏 好短期承压，人民币稳定下冲击有限，需跟踪能源隐含波动率和离岸美元流动性情况。 贵金属方面， 国际金价高位整理。因美联储官员释放偏鸽信号、市场对年内降息预期升温，美元指数回落助推资金流 入黄金市场。地缘政治紧张未缓和，全球央行购金持续，为黄金提供支撑。白银受制造业数据波动影 响，呈区间震荡。 有色金属板块整体窄幅震荡。铜价高位整理，受海外库存偏紧、全球新能源投资延 续支撑，但受美联储利率政策及高位消费乏力影响，动能 ...

【上周商品市场整体收涨，多板块走势分化】上周，商品市场整体收涨2.29%。其中，能化涨幅较大， 达4.11%；农产品和黑色分别上涨2.10%和0.91%；贵金属和有色金属分别下跌1.76%和0.09%。从具体品 种收盘价看，原油、甲醇和短纤涨幅居前，分别为8.82%、5.86%和5.31%；黄金、纸浆和白银跌幅较 大，分别为1.99%、1.50%和1.44%。资金方面有所下降，主要受贵金属资金流出影响。 展望后市，伊以 局势演化受关注，决定短期大类资产走向和定价逻辑。周末美国攻击伊朗核设施，市场有伊朗封锁霍尔 木兹海峡预期，能源价格偏强。但美国有维稳诉求，短期不确定性仍在，需观察伊朗反击力度。风险偏 好短期承压，人民币稳定下冲击有限，需继续跟踪能源隐含波动率和离岸美元流动性稳定情况。 贵金 属方面，国际金价高位整理，受美联储官员偏鸽信号、市场降息预期升温影响，美元指数回落助推资金 流入。地缘政治紧张、全球央行购金提供支撑。白银受制造业数据影响区间震荡。有色金属板块整体窄 幅震荡。铜价高位整理，海外库存偏紧、新能源投资延续提供支撑，但受美联储政策和消费乏力影响动 能放缓；铝价在成本线附近获支撑，市场关注电力成本 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report covers different commodity futures and options, presenting diverse views for each variety. For example, for pork, it will likely rebound slightly in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term; for sugar, it will stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and be weak in a volatile manner in the medium - term; for crude oil, it will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term; for PVC, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but lack strong driving forces for continuous increase in the medium - term [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Intraday View**: Slight rebound [1] - **Medium - term View**: Remain weak after the rebound [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Short after the rebound [1] - **Core Logic**: Official measures such as state purchases, bans on secondary fattening, and stricter environmental policies have signaled market price stabilization. In the short - term, changes in the average slaughter weight should be monitored, and in the long - term, policy implementation and capacity reduction are key factors. Overall, the price will likely remain weak after a short - term rebound [1]. Sugar - **Intraday View**: Stop falling and stabilize [2] - **Medium - term View**: Weak in a volatile manner [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, the tense Middle - East situation and weather conditions in major producing countries affect supply. Domestically, although sales are fast and industrial inventory is down, imports are expected to increase, and the overall 25/26 sugar season is expected to be in surplus, leading to a short - term stabilization and medium - term weakening of sugar prices [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate at a high level [5] - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the profitable position of selling out - of - the - money put options on SC2508 [5] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and OPEC+ policies affect supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates are rising, but actual downstream demand is weak. In terms of inventory, commercial crude oil inventory is falling, while fuel inventory is rising. Overall, the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term [5][6][7]. PVC - **Intraday View**: Show a warm trend [8] - **Medium - term View**: Lack strong driving forces for continuous increase [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8] - **Core Logic**: Cost factors such as power rationing in Inner Mongolia affect supply. Supply has decreased due to plant maintenance. Demand from downstream enterprises has some changes, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but face pressure as demand seasons change [8][9][10].

Investment Insights - The report indicates an increase in the risk of "herding" behavior in the market, suggesting a cautious approach until the risk is released [3][4] - Current market focus remains on defensive sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, nuclear power, and new consumption themes, with a recommendation to wait for adjustment pressure to ease before making further investments [4] Stock Market Analysis - In the past week, small-cap growth stocks outperformed, while volatility in both large and small-cap styles increased, indicating instability in market styles [6] - The dispersion of excess returns among industry indices has decreased to a near one-year low, with a slight decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks [6] - Market activity showed a slight increase in volatility, but turnover rates continued to decline, particularly in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, which reached historically low turnover levels [6] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market displayed divergent trends, with energy and black metal sectors maintaining their momentum, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals showed upward trends [15] - The basis momentum for the black metal sector increased, while agricultural products remained at a low basis momentum [15] - Volatility was high in the energy sector, while other sectors experienced low-level fluctuations [15] Options Market Insights - Implied volatility for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 showed no significant trend before the Dragon Boat Festival, with long-term contracts experiencing a relative increase in implied volatility compared to short-term contracts [20] - The skew of put options relative to call options for the CSI 1000 maintained an advantage, with a noticeable increase in open interest, indicating market expectations of potential adjustments in small-cap stocks [20] Convertible Bond Market Trends - The convertible bond market saw a slight rebound, with the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan recovering, although the proportion of low-premium convertible bonds increased slightly [23] - Market transaction volume remained stable, and credit spreads significantly narrowed [23]