Group 1 - The article emphasizes the potential for a market style shift in the fourth quarter, suggesting a reduction in positions within the technology growth sector and a shift towards broader indices and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][6] - The macro strategy team indicates that external short-term disturbances are expected to be less significant than in April, with positive signals anticipated from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][6] - The report notes an increase in market volatility and a tendency for profit-taking and portfolio adjustments following the release of favorable signals in October [2][6] Group 2 - In the equity market, the style has shifted towards large-cap stocks, with a preference for value over growth, while the volatility of large-cap stocks has increased [8][9] - The report highlights a decrease in the proportion of stocks rising within the market, alongside a decline in the concentration of trading among the top 100 stocks [8][9] - Market activity has shown increased volatility, with a mixed performance in turnover rates across different sectors [8][9] Group 3 - In the commodity market, trends for precious metals, energy, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products have strengthened, while the black metal sector has weakened [14][15] - The report indicates an increase in liquidity for precious metals, contrasting with a decline in liquidity for other sectors [14][15] Group 4 - The options market experienced heightened implied volatility due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a temporary spike in fear among investors [19] - The report notes that the indicators for the small-cap/growth style have not shown signs of improvement, despite previous strength [19] Group 5 - The convertible bond market adjusted in line with the stock market, maintaining stable conversion premiums, which suggests a good defensive characteristic compared to the stock market [22] - The report mentions a decline in pure bond premiums and a significant drop in market transaction volumes post-holiday [22]

Group 1 - Guangdong Hongda held its 10th board meeting on October 9, 2025, to discuss the election of the chairman and other documents [1] - For the first half of 2025, Guangdong Hongda's revenue composition was as follows: mining accounted for 70.36%, civil explosives and other income 15.11%, energy and chemical business 12.85%, defense equipment 0.88%, and other industries 0.8% [1] - As of the report date, Guangdong Hongda's market capitalization was 32.9 billion yuan [1]

Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic landscape shows distinct characteristics in consumption and industrial policy, with a shift towards rational travel decisions during the National Day holiday, as overall travel intensity was lower than during the May Day holiday [1][6] - The tourism market is evolving towards diversification and personalization, with traditional attractions losing some popularity while niche tourism options like "inter-provincial border tours" and "border tourism" are gaining traction [1][6] - The expansion of visa-free travel has stimulated outbound tourism, reflecting the release of domestic residents' international travel demand and the positive effects of national tourism opening policies [1][6] Foreign Macro - During the National Day holiday, the U.S. ADP employment and services PMI data were weaker than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 [1][13] - The U.S. services PMI fell to 50, indicating a slowdown in business activity and new orders, which may impact global market sentiment [1][13] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and demand for risk hedging against the dollar [2][17] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of continued market easing following the initial interest rate cuts [2][17] Oil Market - International oil prices fluctuated during the holiday, ultimately stabilizing around pre-holiday levels, influenced by ongoing supply increases and insufficient demand [2][18] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day, reflecting a focus on maintaining market share amid competitive pressures [2][18] Film Industry - The National Day box office exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, with several films surpassing 100 million yuan in ticket sales, indicating a strong recovery in cultural consumption [8] - The diversity of content, including various genres, has driven demand, with family-oriented films performing particularly well [8] Industrial Policy - The release of growth stabilization plans by seven major industries before the holiday marks a significant shift towards quality and efficiency improvement rather than mere scale expansion [11] - The focus on supply-demand balance and the integration of artificial intelligence aligns with current technological trends, promoting high-end and intelligent industrial development [11] Overall Economic Outlook - The current domestic macroeconomic environment is characterized by structural optimization and diversified demand in consumption, alongside a commitment to high-quality development in industrial policy, which together create a favorable environment for economic growth [12][12] Key Commodity Trends - LME copper prices rose by 2.85% during the holiday, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and ongoing tightness in the copper market [19] - LME zinc prices increased by 3.7%, supported by declining inventories and stable processing fees [19] - LME aluminum prices continued to rise, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance and positive macro sentiment [20] Agricultural Products - U.S. cotton prices weakened during the holiday due to market information delays caused by the government shutdown, while domestic cotton prices face pressure from new crop expectations [21] - International sugar prices are expected to remain weak due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory levels [22] Shipping Industry - During the National Day holiday, shipping rates increased significantly, with major shipping lines raising prices for the second half of October [48] - The market is expected to enter a phase of competition for the year-end peak season, with attention on the impact of shipping rate adjustments [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic economic repair depends on the demand side, with potential incremental policies. Overseas, the US government shutdown increases market uncertainty, and the Fed's decision - making may be affected. The Japanese political situation also impacts the market [2]. - The RMB exchange rate needs continuous improvement in internal and external environments and policy signals for trend - like appreciation. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [4]. - A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after the holiday, with a likely structural market. Attention should be paid to multiple events in the future [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and it is advisable to enter long positions at low prices without chasing high [8]. - The shipping market is affected by the US policy on Chinese ships and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. The 10 - contract may decline, and other contracts are likely to oscillate [12]. - Precious metals are expected to remain strong, but there may be price adjustments. Any adjustment is a mid - to - long - term buying opportunity [13][14][15]. - Copper prices are driven up by supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, high - price industrial acceptance is a risk [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday, showing an oscillatory and strong pattern, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [18]. - For lithium carbonate, focus on downstream restocking. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [20][21]. - Steel products face de - stocking pressure, and the market is expected to be under pressure. Iron ore prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disturbances. Coal and coke prices' rebound depends on the steel market. Ferroalloys have prominent supply - demand contradictions [24][27][28]. - LPG is expected to run weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate weakly. Methanol supply pressure increases. PVC is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern. Pure benzene and styrene follow the cost decline. Fuel oil is expected to open flat, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower. Asphalt may open slightly lower, with a possible last - chance rise this year [30][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][44]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate weakly. Propylene prices rise slightly [45][47][48][49]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Oilseeds are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Oils may rebound after the holiday. Soybean prices are expected to decline. Cotton prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. Sugar prices may open high and go high in the short - term. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to be cautious. Apple prices may rise due to bad weather. Red dates may face downward pressure [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][66][68]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Key information includes the Fed's meeting minutes, the US government shutdown, the US budget deficit, and international political situations. Domestic economic repair focuses on the demand side, and overseas uncertainties increase [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the Fed's decision, the US government shutdown, and the Japanese political situation. Short - term strategies for enterprises are given [3][4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, A - shares were strong, and overseas stock indexes were also strong during the holiday. A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall, with attention on multiple events [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The Fed's internal differences and the US government shutdown are important information. The bond market rebounded before the holiday, and it is expected to oscillate after the holiday [8]. Container Shipping - Spot market prices are relatively stable. Global trade volume and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation are key factors. Short - term strategies for different contracts are provided [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices rose strongly during the holiday, driven by investment demand, inflation concerns, and the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to data release and the Fed's meeting [13][14]. - **Copper**: Prices rose during the holiday due to supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about industrial acceptance at high prices [16][17]. - **Nickel**: Prices were strong during the holiday, affected by Indonesian policies. It is expected to rise slightly after the holiday with limited upward momentum [18]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production and downstream restocking [20]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Inventory increased significantly during the holiday. The market faces de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase. The price is expected to rise in the short - term due to demand recovery and supply issues [25][26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply elasticity is limited, and the price is supported by winter storage. The rebound depends on the steel market. Strategies for different contracts are provided [28][29]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction, with high supply and weak demand [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Overseas prices were weak during the holiday. Supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter, and the demand requirement is higher [30]. - **PTA - PX**: It oscillates weakly with the cost side. The polyester season is not very strong, and PTA processing fees have limited expansion [33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: There is a marginal improvement in supply and demand, but the long - term inventory increase expectation makes it difficult to break through upward [34][35][36]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [37]. - **PVC**: There were few changes during the holiday. The market is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices follow the cost decline. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the supply of styrene will increase later. Consider widening the price spread [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to open flat, with a strong self - performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower, following the cost [41][42]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increases, and demand is affected by weather and funds. There may be a last - chance rise this year [43][44]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to oscillate weakly, with different influencing factors for each [45][47][48]. - **Propylene**: Prices rise slightly, with changes in supply and demand [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Prices declined during the holiday, in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Short at high prices [52][53]. - **Oilseeds**: Affected by Sino - US negotiations, with different trends in the internal and external markets. Strategies for contracts are provided [54][55]. - **Oils**: May rebound after the holiday, with different supply and demand situations for different oils [56][57][58]. - **Soybeans**: Prices are expected to decline, with attention on policy and market factors [59][60]. - **Cotton**: Prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds, with a focus on multiple factors [61][62]. - **Sugar**: Prices may open high and go high in the short - term, affected by production and disasters [63][64]. - **Eggs**: Prices were weak during the holiday, and it is advisable to be cautious or short far - month contracts [65]. - **Apples**: Prices may rise due to bad weather, with different price levels for good and poor - quality products [66][67]. - **Red Dates**: May face downward pressure, with attention on weather and inventory [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending on September 12, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.08%, -0.33%, and 0.02% respectively. The public - fund market showed a pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds, with enhanced strategy indices performing strongly, and precious - metal ETFs having rising returns while energy - chemical ETFs' returns declined [3]. - All the five - style indices of CITIC rose last week, with the growth style leading in returns. The financial style declined in relative strength, while the stability and growth styles had large increases in indicator momentum. Financial - style funds had better excess performance, and the deviation of products from growth and financial styles increased marginally [3]. - The overall market congestion decreased slightly this week, and the consumer style remained in a historically high - congestion range. In the neutral strategy, the stock - index basis fluctuated and recovered, and the ETF premium - rate index rose and then fell. The latest signal indicated a short - term decline risk for the IF basis [3]. - The momentum - reversal factor had better return performance with a weekly excess return of 2.00%, and the leverage factor's excess return continued to decline. The valuation and profit factors strengthened month - on - month in terms of winning rate. The factor cross - section rotation speed increased month - on - month and was in the low - to - middle historical range [3]. - According to the latest score of the style - timing model, the consumer and growth styles rebounded slightly this week, and the current signal favored the stability style. The style - timing strategy's return last week was 1.44%, with an excess return of - 0.41% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - **Overall Market Index**: As of the week ending on September 12, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.08%, -0.33%, and 0.02% respectively [3]. - **Public - Fund Market**: The public - fund market showed a pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds. Enhanced strategy indices performed strongly with a weekly return of 2.17%. Precious - metal ETFs' returns continued to rise (gold ETF net value increased by 2.31%), while energy - chemical ETFs' returns continued to decline [3]. Style Analysis - **CITIC Five - Style Indices**: All five - style indices rose last week, with the growth style leading in returns. The financial style declined in relative strength, and the stability and growth styles had large increases in indicator momentum [3]. - **Fund Style**: Financial - style funds had a weekly excess return of 0.77%. The deviation of products from growth and financial styles increased marginally. The overall market congestion decreased slightly this week, and the consumer style remained in a historically high - congestion range [3]. Neutral Strategy - **Stock - Index Basis**: The stock - index basis (futures - spot) fluctuated and recovered. Some contracts of IH and IF were slightly at a premium, and the basis was within one - standard - deviation range of the one - month average. The ETF premium - rate index rose and then fell to the middle - level range of the past month, and the latest signal indicated a short - term decline risk for the IF basis [3]. Barra Factor - **Factor Return**: The momentum - reversal factor had a weekly excess return of 2.00%, and the leverage factor's excess return continued to decline. The valuation and profit factors strengthened month - on - month in terms of winning rate [3]. - **Factor Rotation**: The factor cross - section rotation speed increased month - on - month and was in the low - to - middle historical range [3]. Style - Timing Model - **Style Score**: The consumer and growth styles rebounded slightly this week, and the current signal favored the stability style [3]. - **Strategy Return**: The style - timing strategy's return last week was 1.44%, with an excess return of - 0.41% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - The implementation of domestic service - consumption stimulus policies may form a synergistic effect with commodity - consumption boosting measures to support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, but the actual effect needs further observation. Overseas, the CPI data rebounded in August, and the weakening of the US employment market has increased the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed's interest rate dot - plot will be the focus of the market [1]. - The US dollar index is in a volatile range. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy near the 7.10 mark [2][3]. Stock Index - The sentiment and capital situation of the stock index have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. However, if the stock index continues to rise rapidly, there will be a need for adjustment due to over - heated sentiment [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded due to rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases. The central bank's attitude needs to be closely watched, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [4][5]. Shipping - The new weekly opening quotes of Maersk are lower than the previous values, and CMA CGM and Evergreen have also followed up and lowered their quotes for European routes, which is likely to drive down the futures price valuation. It is recommended to operate with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a high - level shock. In the medium and long term, they may be bullish. In the short term, gold and silver are in a high - level consolidation. It is advisable to maintain the idea of buying on dips [9][11]. Copper - US inflation - related data are lower than expected, which increases the expectation of interest rate cuts and causes the copper price to strengthen slightly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [12]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, the macro environment is favorable, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, the cost provides support, and it is advisable to consider arbitrage operations [13][14][15]. Zinc - In the short term, the zinc price is in a bottom - strengthening shock. It is advisable to continue to observe the LME inventory approaching the extreme value or sell out - of - the - money put options [16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They maintain a shock trend, with limited downward space [17][18]. Tin - Affected by US PPI data, the tin price has risen slightly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand provides support for the lithium - carbonate price, and short - term supply - side disturbances do not change the fundamental support logic [20][21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry is under structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and investors are advised to be cautious [22][23]. Lead - The lead price is in a narrow - range shock. It is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money call options or using a double - selling strategy [24]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The supply of crude steel has recovered, but the overall supply of the five major steel products has decreased. The steel inventory pressure is large, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [26][27]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is difficult to rise unilaterally. It is recommended to take profit on long positions [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - A second - round price cut is expected. The coal - coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [29]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Their trends mainly follow the coking - coal price. It is recommended to lightly try long positions on the main contracts, but beware of the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Production increase dominates the oil - price trend. It is recommended to short on rallies [33]. LPG - It maintains a shock trend. The domestic supply is controllable, and the demand is slightly weakened [34][35]. PTA - PX - The industrial profit is under pressure, but the support is strengthening. It is recommended to expand the processing margin below 260 and try to lay out long positions on TA01 below 4650 [35][38]. MEG - Bottle Chip - There is a pre - expected inventory build - up. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to short on rallies [39][40]. PP - The cost provides support, and it is expected to be stronger than PE in the short term [41][43]. PE - The current driving force is weak. It is expected to be in a shock pattern, and further demand increase signals need to be awaited [44][45]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - They follow the cost - end fluctuations. Pure benzene is expected to be weak in the short term, and styrene is in a shock state and it is advisable to wait and see [45][47]. Fuel Oil - It follows the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to wait to short the cracking spread [46][47]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It is recommended to wait to go long on the cracking spread [48]. Asphalt - The demand is affected by rainfall, but the inventory is improving. It is advisable to try long positions after the crude - oil price stabilizes [49][50]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The downstream operating rate has increased, and the domestic demand is resilient. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [50][52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The supply is expected to remain high in the medium and long term. The supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to cost and supply expectations [53]. Glass - The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase. The market is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and demand factors [54]. Caustic Soda - The near - end spot price is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [55][56]. Pulp - The fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase short positions [56][57]. Logs - There are no new factors, and it is in a shock state. It is advisable to wait and see [57]. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic service - consumption stimulus policies are expected to be introduced, and overseas, the US employment market is weakening, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week. Different strategies are recommended for export and import enterprises [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The sentiment and capital situation have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of adjustment [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the central bank's attitude is the focus. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. Shipping - Maersk's new quotes and the follow - up actions of other shipping companies drive down the futures price valuation. A quick - in - and - quick - out strategy is recommended [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - The inflation data are in line with expectations, and the employment market is cooling. Precious metals are in a high - level shock, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][11]. Copper - US inflation data increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the copper price strengthens slightly. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [12]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, the macro and fundamental factors are favorable, but investors should be cautious. For alumina, the supply is excessive. For cast aluminum alloy, the cost provides support [13][14][15]. Zinc - The supply is in excess, and the demand is average. The short - term trend is a bottom - strengthening shock [16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They maintain a shock trend, with limited downward space [17][18]. Tin - Affected by US PPI data, the tin price rises slightly. Selling out - of - the money put options is recommended [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and short - term supply disturbances do not change the fundamentals [20][21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The short - term sentiment is supported, but the long - term industry is under structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policies [22][23]. Lead - The lead price is in a narrow - range shock. It is advisable to consider option - selling strategies [24]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The crude - steel supply has recovered, but the overall supply of the five major steel products has decreased, and the inventory pressure is large [26][27]. Iron Ore - The price is difficult to rise unilaterally due to weak demand. Taking profit on long positions is recommended [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - A second - round price cut is expected, and the market is in a wide - range shock in the short term [29]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Their trends follow coking coal. Lightly trying long positions is recommended, but beware of risks [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Production increase leads to a decline in oil prices. A short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [33]. LPG - It maintains a shock trend, with controllable supply and slightly weakened demand [34][35]. PTA - PX - The industrial profit is under pressure, but the support is strengthening. Processing - margin expansion and long - position layout strategies are recommended [35][38]. MEG - Bottle Chip - There is a pre - expected inventory build - up. It is recommended to wait and look for short - on - rallies opportunities [39][40]. PP - The cost provides support, and it is expected to be stronger than PE in the short term [41][43]. PE - The current driving force is weak, and it is in a shock pattern, awaiting demand increase signals [44][45]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - They follow cost fluctuations. Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and styrene is in a shock state [45][47]. Fuel Oil - It follows cost fluctuations. Waiting to short the cracking spread is recommended [46][47]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Waiting to go long on the cracking spread is recommended [48]. Asphalt - The demand is affected by rainfall, and the inventory is improving. Trying long positions after crude - oil price stabilization is advisable [49][50]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The downstream operating rate has increased, and the domestic demand is resilient. Short - term long positions can be considered [50][52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The supply is expected to remain high, and the supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [53]. Glass - The supply is stable or slightly increasing, and the market is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state [54]. Caustic Soda - The near - end spot is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Spot rhythm and demand need to be watched [55][56]. Pulp and Logs Pulp - The fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and not chase short positions [56][57]. Logs - There are no new factors, and it is in a shock state. It is advisable to wait and see [57].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Guangdong Hongda Holding Group's General Manager Zhang Gengcheng highlights the strengthening of cooperation between China and Serbia, particularly in the fields of mining and civil explosives, as Guangdong Hongda accelerates its international expansion efforts [2][6][8]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting took place in Beijing on September 3, where President Vučić expressed appreciation for Guangdong Hongda's contributions to the local economy and social development in Serbia [2][6]. - Vučić indicated the Serbian government's willingness to deepen cooperation with Guangdong Hongda in areas such as civil explosives and mining services [7][8]. - Zhang Gengcheng thanked President Vučić for the invitation and expressed gratitude for the Serbian government's support for Guangdong Hongda's development [10][12]. Group 2: Company Background - Guangdong Hongda Holding Group is a state-owned enterprise under the Guangdong Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, recognized as China's first publicly listed company providing integrated services in mining and civil explosives [24][25]. - The company aims to become a leader in the global civil explosives, mining services, and energy chemical industries, with ongoing international expansion efforts [26][28]. - Guangdong Hongda has established multiple contact points and subsidiaries in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, achieving significant breakthroughs in overseas sales [28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market is in a phased shock interval with high trading volume, leading to significant shock amplitude. Short - term trading is influenced by the STAR 50 index, and funds are the main disturbing factor. Traders prefer blue - chip stocks. It's advisable to hold positions and take risk - avoidance measures before a clear consensus is formed [4]. - The bond market may need to repeatedly test the bottom due to the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic as stock market risks increase after reaching a high level [4]. - For the shipping index (European line) futures, the possibility of a shock - and - decline trend is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the risk of a low - level rebound of some contracts [6]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and may maintain a strong state in the short - term. It's recommended to pay attention to the impact of the US PCE data on Friday night [10]. - Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile, with both upward and downward pressures [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina shock - weak, and cast aluminum alloy shock - strong [15]. - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom in the short - term [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a situation of long - short game, waiting for clear signals [18]. - Tin is expected to be slightly strong [20]. - Carbonate lithium is in a state of correcting over - valuation and oscillating adjustment. In the short - term, there may be a rebound opportunity, and in the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to short at high prices [22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillating adjustment phase, and it's recommended to wait and see or trade based on an oscillating strategy [24]. - Lead is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [25]. - For steel products, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the short - term market may be bearish [26]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space in the short - term [27]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [28]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended to go long lightly at the 60 - day moving average [29]. - For crude oil, it's recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [32]. - LPG is expected to be weak and shock, with the spot price rising to catch up [33]. - PTA - PX is following the decline of commodity sentiment, and it's recommended to short the processing fee and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [36]. - MEG - bottle chips are following the decline of commodity sentiment but showing resistance to decline. It's recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and conduct covered call option operations in the medium - to - long - term [37]. - PP is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern [39]. - PE is recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [41]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in an oscillating decline, and for styrene, short - sellers should pay attention to stop - profit [43]. - Fuel oil is facing a situation where the downward driving force remains unsolved [44]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long - allocated as its valuation is low and the driving force is upward [45]. - Asphalt is in an oscillating consolidation phase, mainly following cost fluctuations [46]. - Rubber is expected to be in an interval shock, and it's recommended to expand the spread between light and dark rubber at low levels [49]. - Urea is in a pattern of having both support and suppression, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [50]. - For soda ash, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [52]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance state, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [53]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Macro - Domestic policies focus on promoting service consumption, and overseas markets show economic and employment resilience in the US. Attention should be paid to the upcoming US non - farm payroll report and price index [1]. - The Fed's policy shows marginal loosening signs, and the US dollar index is in a shock - consolidation pattern. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is expected to be more likely to depreciate [2]. Stock Index - The stock market is in a phased shock interval with high trading volume and significant shock amplitude. Short - term trading is affected by the STAR 50 index, and funds are the main disturbing factor [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and may need to repeatedly test the bottom, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic [4]. Shipping Index - The shipping index (European line) futures are affected by the reduction of spot cabin quotes and geopolitical risks, and the possibility of a shock - and - decline trend is relatively large [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the US PCE data on Friday night. It's recommended to go long on dips [8][10]. Copper - Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile, with both upward and downward pressures due to factors such as the US dollar index and demand [13]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina shock - weak, and cast aluminum alloy shock - strong, each with different influencing factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14][15]. Zinc - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom in the short - term, with support from inventory and potential demand improvement [16][18]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are in a long - short game situation, and attention should be paid to factors such as nickel ore supply, nickel iron price, and stainless steel demand [18][19]. Tin - Tin is expected to be slightly strong, supported by supply - side tightness and inventory decline [20]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium is in a state of correcting over - valuation and oscillating adjustment. In the short - term, there may be a rebound opportunity, and in the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to short at high prices [21][22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillating adjustment phase, and it's recommended to wait and see or trade based on an oscillating strategy [24]. Lead - Lead is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with limited upward space and sufficient downward support [25]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The supply and demand of five major steel products both increase, but the inventory accumulates, and the short - term market may be bearish [26]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space in the short - term due to support from coking coal and macro - sentiment [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy [28]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are facing supply pressure, and it's recommended to go long lightly at the 60 - day moving average [29]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The international crude oil market is in a multi - empty game, and it's recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [30][32]. LPG - LPG is expected to be weak and shock, with the spot price rising to catch up, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [32][33]. PTA - PX - PTA - PX is following the decline of commodity sentiment, and it's recommended to short the processing fee and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [34][36]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG - bottle chips are following the decline of commodity sentiment but showing resistance to decline. It's recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and conduct covered call option operations in the medium - to - long - term [37]. PP - PP is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern, affected by supply and demand factors [37][39]. PE - PE is recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [40][41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene are in an oscillating decline, and for styrene, short - sellers should pay attention to stop - profit [41][43]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is facing a situation where the downward driving force remains unsolved, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [44]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long - allocated as its valuation is low and the driving force is upward [45]. Asphalt - Asphalt is in an oscillating consolidation phase, mainly following cost fluctuations, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [46]. Rubber and 20 - Rubber - Rubber is expected to be in an interval shock, and it's recommended to expand the spread between light and dark rubber at low levels, affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [48][49]. Urea - Urea is in a pattern of having both support and suppression, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [50]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and glass is in a weak balance state, both affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [52][53].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the current market sentiment remains high, with an influx of incremental funds and a continued "deposit migration" logic, leading to a sustained profit effect [2][5]. - It is expected that the A-share market will continue its upward trend unless there is policy intervention, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced allocation focusing on mid-to-large cap and leading companies, particularly in the technology growth sector [2][5]. - The article suggests paying attention to the rotation and rebound opportunities in key sectors such as technology, new energy, cyclical industries (including military and rare earths), pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend stocks [2][5]. Group 2 - In the equity market, the style shifted from small-cap dominance to large-cap dominance, with growth style significantly outperforming [7]. - The volatility of both small and large-cap styles has decreased, while the volatility of value and growth styles has increased [7][10]. - The concentration of trading has increased, with the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries seeing a rapid rise in their transaction volume proportions [7][10]. Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals has slightly decreased, while the trend strength of energy and black metals has increased [12]. - The volatility of energy and black metal sectors has decreased from near-year highs, while the volatility of precious metals has slightly increased [12]. - Liquidity in the black and non-ferrous metal sectors has rapidly declined [12]. Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 remains high, indicating pressure on short positions due to strong upward movements [14]. - The skew of put options has dropped into negative territory, with an increase in the open interest of put options compared to call options, suggesting that market participants are beginning to take risk precautions [14]. Group 5 - The convertible bond market experienced some volatility, with the premium rate for conversion dropping significantly from its peak to near the median of the past year, primarily due to the market's sharp rise [16]. - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has decreased, indicating that the recent valuation drop is mainly due to adjustments in previously high premium convertible bonds [16].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Hongda announced its 2025 semi-annual report during the board meeting held on August 21, 2025, highlighting the revenue composition for the first half of 2025 [2]. Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, Guangdong Hongda's revenue composition is as follows: - Mining operations accounted for 70.36% - Explosives and other income contributed 15.11% - Energy and chemical business represented 12.85% - Defense equipment made up 0.88% - Other industries accounted for 0.8% [2].