软件ETF（515230）跟踪的是软件指数（H30202），该指数从市场中选取涉及系统软件、应用软件开发 及相关服务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映软件行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。软件指数主 要聚焦信息技术领域，具有显著的成长性和创新性特征，是观测软件行业发展态势的重要指标之一。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国泰海通指出，OpenAI推出的AgentKit为开发者提供了简便、快捷的Agent开发工具包，通过可视化画 布"Agent Builder"和可嵌入聊天组件"ChatKit"简化了复杂业务流程的设计和集成。同时，OpenAI正推动 ChatGPT成为"AI操作系统"，通过Apps SDK允许开发者在ChatGPT内部构建交互式应用程序，并强调上 下文记忆和理解能力，使App能自然融入对话流程。此外，OpenAI计划通过"入口+生态"策略深度绑定 用户，目标成为"AI时代的基础设施入口"。在全球AI应用加速发展的背景下，国产算力及AI应用的长 期发展空间被看好。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3900-point mark on October 9, driven by policy support and increased capital inflow [1][3] - Major institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, citing reasonable overall valuations and potential for upward movement in the medium to long term [3] - Factors contributing to the market's strength include the rise of quality enterprises, active capital participation, and supportive policies, which are seen as the foundation for the revaluation of A-shares [3] Group 2 - Investment focus is shifting towards two core sectors: consumption and technology, with a consensus among public fund institutions [4] - In the technology sector, the AI industry chain is highlighted as a significant opportunity, particularly in software and AI applications, with expectations for domestic computing power to show trends in the fourth quarter [4] - The consumption sector is viewed through the lens of structural opportunities, with an emphasis on "value-for-money consumption" as consumer income expectations improve [4] - Additional investment themes include "new productivity" and the trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas, which are seen as key drivers for future economic growth and opportunities for investors [4]

阿里巴巴 20251008 摘要 AI 云基础设施潜力巨大，预计到 2032 年能耗需求达 16 吉瓦，需新增 约 10 吉瓦设施，投资规模达万亿人民币。芯片供应紧张状况缓解，为 云厂商带来机遇，但短期内 AI 云盈利受折旧成本影响，主要通过提升收 入和订单增速稳定市场份额。 海外 AI 云市场由微软和亚马逊主导，Token 收费稳定在每百万 15 美元 左右。新兴云厂商如甲骨文、CoreWeave 通过租赁英伟达卡抢占市场 份额。国内市场字节跳动入局，对阿里构成竞争压力，其国内 AI token 消耗量已达 55%。 阿里云业务短期内利润率受规模扩张影响承压，预计三季度 EBIT margin 维持在高单位数。PaaS 层（如数据库）和 SaaS 层毛利较高， 将成为未来利润增长点，加强 PaaS 能力是关键。 软件产业发展趋势是 Agent 自主化生成，简化用户交互，增强 Agent 性能。Copilot 战略值得关注，未来每个公司可能有数千个自主生成的 Agent。钉钉可借鉴 Copilot 战略，增强产品能力应对市场变化。 阿里巴巴在提升 Agent 记忆能力方面有哪些举措？ Q&A 阿里巴巴在四季度 ...

来源：环球市场播报 周三，美国联邦政府停摆持续至第八天。尽管政府停摆事件迄今对股市影响有限，但若长期持续将对市 场情绪构成更大风险。 华尔街还关注周三即将发布的美联储最新会议纪要，这份文件或可让投资者窥见九月分歧严重的政策会 议后美联储的决策思路。 高盛称无需担忧美国科技股存在泡沫。 高盛策略师奥本海默认为，对于当前涨幅强劲的美国科技股，现在担忧其存在泡沫还为时尚早。他表 示，科技巨头股价创下纪录的涨势，伴随着强劲的盈利增长；而在过去的泡沫时期，市场上涨主要由投 机行为推动。 奥本海默及其团队在一份报告中写道："科技行业的估值正逐渐偏高，但尚未达到与历史泡沫时期相符 的水平。" 北京时间10月8日晚，美股周三高开。此前标普500指数因甲骨文股价下挫终结七连涨走势，引发对人工 智能交易可持续性的质疑。美国联邦政府停摆已进入第二周。美联储将在今天发布9月货币政策会议纪 要。 周二美股收跌，当天关于甲骨文公司的一则负面新闻令股指承压。据报道，甲骨文云业务利润率低于分 析师当前预期，且该企业软件公司在部分租用英伟达芯片的交易中处于亏损状态。 关于甲骨文公司的报道令人联想起1990年代末早期互联网公司狂热最终导致互联网 ...

Core Insights - The ongoing debate about whether the market has entered an AI bubble is intensifying, particularly following Goldman Sachs' recent report analyzing five key controversies in the AI sector [1][2]. Group 1: AI Adoption and Monetization - Consumer AI adoption is accelerating, with ChatGPT reaching a record of 700 million weekly active users in July, but monetization capabilities are lagging behind infrastructure investments [1][3]. - A significant disparity exists between the rapid growth of consumer AI usage and the slower monetization efforts by AI companies, as evidenced by only 40% of companies purchasing official LLM subscription services despite 90% of employees using personal AI tools [3][4]. Group 2: Corporate AI Deployment and ROI - Companies are expanding internal AI applications to enhance efficiency, yet the visibility of ROI remains low, with only 5% of firms reporting measurable impacts on their financial statements [5][6]. - The advertising sector is identified as a potential disruption area, with AI-driven platforms threatening traditional advertising agencies, which collectively represent a profit pool of approximately $161 billion [5][6]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure Investment - AI infrastructure investment is at an unprecedented level, with the five major cloud service providers expected to spend $381 billion in 2023, marking a 68% year-over-year increase [1][7]. - By 2025, total spending on AI-related capital is projected to reach around $1.4 trillion, driven by increasing consumer demand and significant partnerships announced recently [7][8]. Group 4: Power Infrastructure Demand - The rapid expansion of AI workloads is expected to increase global power demand for data centers by over 165% by 2030, necessitating substantial new power generation capacity [10][11]. - In the U.S., 60% of future power demand will require new generation facilities, primarily from natural gas, solar, and wind sources [10]. Group 5: Bubble Risk Assessment - While there are similarities between the current market and the late 1990s, the current valuation levels are significantly lower, with the Nasdaq 100 index trading at a 46% discount compared to the peak of the internet bubble [2][11]. - The IPO activity is also markedly lower than during the late 1990s, indicating a more cautious market environment [11].

证券研究报告|宏观专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 金属股带动，喜迎"开门红" [Table_Title2] ——双节假期国内外重要信息分析 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ► 复盘：大类资产表现 美股：美股市场在科技板块强劲表现推动下三大指数集体上涨。市场受 对美联储降息预期及企业盈利乐观情绪支撑，政府停摆的影响被淡化。 日股：市场预期日本新首相将重拾安倍经济政策（宽货币+宽财政），日 经股指显著上涨，日元大幅贬值，推升美元指数。 港股：国庆期间，港股整体缩量震荡，恒指、恒科收涨，指数在 10 月 2 日创四年新高。南向资金持续流入科技、创新药、有色板块，推动港股市 场整体估值修复。 商品：黄金方面，受美国政府停摆引发避险需求升温，进一步推升金价， 纽约金价突破 4000 美元/盎司大关；铜价方面，供应端的多重冲击，加剧 了全球铜供应紧张局势，推动铜价持续走高。 ► 假期出行消费平稳增长，美国政府再陷停摆困境 1）"双节"假期，出行人数和商贸零售数据小幅增长，热门城市及景点 人气较旺；观影人次及票房不及预期；商品房销售平淡。 2）美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market rally is driven by strong corporate earnings rather than liquidity, indicating a shift from a "liquidity bull market" to an "earnings bull market" [3][6][20] - Corporate earnings have stabilized for three consecutive quarters, with the "Earnings Revision Breadth" indicator turning positive for the MSCI China Index in August, signaling a recovery in companies' profit-generating capabilities [4][25] - The market is experiencing significant internal differentiation, with hot sectors like technology, internet, finance, and biotechnology showing strong earnings growth, while traditional sectors like consumer goods and real estate are facing downward revisions [7][11][29] Group 2 - AI is not a bubble; leading companies in China are significantly undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts, with the potential for substantial profit contributions from AI integration into their existing businesses [12][13][25] - The market is witnessing a fundamental shift in foreign investment, with over 90% of U.S. investors expressing plans to increase exposure to Chinese stocks, particularly in sectors where China has established global leadership [14][30] - Key sectors attracting foreign investment include humanoid robotics, automation, and biotechnology, indicating a strategic shift in how foreign investors view China from a mere emerging market to a core asset in the global tech race [15][16][30]

来源：@究竟视频微博 美国软件巨头甲骨文股价收跌2.52%。据报道，甲骨文的云业务利润率远低于分析师的预期，并且在部 分英伟达芯片租赁交易中出现亏损。甲骨文盘中一度跌超7%。 受此拖累，芯片股大幅下跌。费城半导体指数收跌2.06%，台积电跌2.77%，美光科技跌2.76%。 日内科技股普遍走弱。特斯拉跌4.45%，此前特斯拉发布了更实惠版本的Model Y SUV 和 Model 3轿 车，许多投资者原本希望能听到关于其他新产品的消息，例如马斯克（Elon Musk）一直承诺的下一代 Roadster。 此外，谷歌跌1.86%，微软跌0.87%，Meta跌0.36%，英伟达跌0.35%，苹果跌0.08%。 【美股三大股指齐跌，#标普500终结7连涨#，#甲骨文一度重挫7%#】受权重科技股下跌拖累，周二（7 日）美股三大股指全线下挫，投资者对人工智能的盈利前景有所担忧。截至收盘，道指跌91.99点，跌 幅0.20%，报46602.98点；纳指跌153.30点，跌幅0.67%，报22788.36点；标普500指数跌25.69点，跌幅 0.38%，报6714.59点。 ...

*美股三大股指齐跌，标普500七连涨终结 *甲骨文盘中跌超7%，芯片股普遍下挫 *黄金期货价格首破4000美元 受权重科技股下跌拖累，周二（7日）美股三大股指全线下挫，投资者对人工智能的盈利前景有所担 忧。截至收盘，道指跌91.99点，跌幅0.20%，报46602.98点；纳指跌153.30点，跌幅0.67%，报22788.36 点；标普500指数跌25.69点，跌幅0.38%，报6714.59点。 市场概况 美国软件巨头甲骨文股价收跌2.52%。据报道，甲骨文的云业务利润率远低于分析师的预期，并且在部 分英伟达芯片租赁交易中出现亏损。甲骨文盘中一度跌超7%。 受此拖累，芯片股大幅下跌。费城半导体指数收跌2.06%，台积电跌2.77%，美光科技跌2.76%。 日内科技股普遍走弱。特斯拉跌4.45%，此前特斯拉发布了更实惠版本的Model Y SUV 和 Model 3轿 车，许多投资者原本希望能听到关于其他新产品的消息，例如马斯克（Elon Musk）一直承诺的下一代 Roadster。 此外，谷歌跌1.86%，微软跌0.87%，Meta跌0.36%，英伟达跌0.35%，苹果跌0.08%。 美国资管机构Ame ...

来源：环球市场播报 投资者对 OpenAI 的业务扩张感到兴奋，推动科技股大幅上涨，但越来越多华尔街专业人士担忧：短短 几分钟内市值便增加数十亿美元的剧烈波动，正释放出不健康的市场信号，令人联想到互联网泡沫时 代。 超威半导体公司（Advanced Micro Devices Inc．，简称 AMD）周一便经历了这样一轮 "火箭式上涨"。 这家芯片制造商与 OpenAI 签署了一份可能带来数十亿美元营收的协议后，股价飙升，盘中高点时市值 一度增加约 1000 亿美元。AMD 股价周二延续涨势，早盘涨幅最高达 7.5%。此前在 9 月，甲骨文公司 （Oracle Corp．）因发布了云计算业务的重磅业绩指引（包括与 ChatGPT 运营商 OpenAI 签署的一份五 年价值 3000 亿美元的协议），股价单交易日暴涨 36%，为这家软件公司新增 2550 亿美元市值。 "若这些协议中有任何一份告吹，都可能引发连锁反应，我认为这一风险值得警惕，" 扎克斯投资管理 公司（Zacks Investment Management Inc．，管理资产规模约 120 亿美元）的客户投资组合经理布莱 恩・马尔伯里（Brian ...