Group 1: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices increased by $232.5, or 2.28%, closing at $10,414.0 per ton on September 29, driven by a weaker dollar and concerns over global supply due to an incident at the Grasberg copper mine [1][3] - The Grasberg mine has been suspended since September 8 following a fatal landslide, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The copper market is expected to remain supported due to tightening conditions caused by disruptions at the Grasberg mine [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices rose by $23.5, or 0.88%, to $2,679.0 per ton, while zinc prices increased by $52.0, or 1.80%, to $2,940.5 per ton [2] - Tin prices surged by $987.0, or 2.86%, closing at $35,490.0 per ton, reaching a high not seen since April 4 [4] Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The plan includes goals for a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals, with significant progress expected in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]

盛达金属资源股份有限公司 关于发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金事项的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 特别提示： 1、盛达金属资源股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年10月31日披露的《盛达金属资源股份有限 公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金预案》的"重大事项提示"和"重大风险提示"章节中，详细披露了 本次交易尚需履行的审批程序及可能存在的风险因素，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 2、自本次交易预案披露以来，公司及交易相关方积极推进本次交易的相关工作。截至本公告披露日， 本次交易相关方尚需就交易细节进一步沟通商讨，交易方案受交易各方成交意愿以及相关监管要求等的 影响，存在一定的不确定性。除已披露的风险因素外，公司尚未发现可能导致公司董事会或者交易对方 撤销、中止本次交易或者对本次交易方案作出实质性变更的相关事项，公司将继续积极推进本次交易， 并根据中国证监会和深圳证券交易所的相关规定及时履行本次交易的后续审批和信息披露程序。 一、本次交易的基本情况 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：000603 证券简称： ...

纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.56%，热门中概股多数下跌，金山云跌超10%；蔚来、理想汽车跌超5%；哔哩哔哩跌超4%；百度跌3%，爱奇艺、阿里巴巴 跌超2%；小鹏汽车涨超2%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.11%，报14983点。 每经编辑｜何小桃 杜宇 当地时间9月26日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指上涨299.97点，涨幅0.65%；纳指涨0.44%；标普500指数涨0.59%。 热门科技股多数上涨，英特尔涨超4%，微软、亚马逊涨幅不足1%，甲骨文跌超2%。金属与采矿、汽车股涨幅居前，世纪铝业涨超7%，泛美白银、美国 黄金公司、黄金资源涨超4%，Lucid、福特汽车涨超3%。加密矿企、稀土概念跌幅居前，Hut 8跌近5%，TeraWulf跌超1%。艺电收涨15%，创最近六年来 最佳单日表现，报道称沙特主权财富基金PIF和银湖资本考虑将其私有化。 特斯拉报440.40美元，涨幅4.02%，市值为14643.96亿美元。其市值一夜增加约566亿美元（约合人民币4038亿元）。 剔除了波动较大的食品和能源部分的核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.9%，预期为2.9%，前值为2.9%；核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%， ...

商品日报 20250924 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 9 月 PMI 符合预期，国内股债商均有所调整 海外方面，鲍威尔称通胀上行与就业下行风险并存，美联储需权衡取舍，称关税属一次 性冲击，决策不受政治因素驱动；鲍曼则称在稳就业上动作滞后，若需求走弱或需加快降息。 美国 9 月标普制造业、服务业 PMI 基本符合预期，均处于扩张区间，企业虽受关税成本冲 击但未提价，也印证关税未必长期推升物价的观点。美股调整，美元指数震荡偏弱，金价再 创 3791 美元历史新高，油价受供应扰动上涨超 1%，铜价小幅收涨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 国内方面，周二股债商均有所调整，市场风险偏好回落。A 股放量调整，上证指数盘中 下跌超 1%、尾盘修复大部分，两市超 4000 家收跌、赚钱效应较弱，成交额回升至 2.5 万亿， 红利板块、创业板收涨，中证 1000、北证 50 等小票偏弱。股市主要交易前期上涨后的调整， 假期前夕有部分资金选择了结观望，目前基本面温和、四季度政策预期在升温， ...

金银比翼同飞之际，以大宗商品全球主管马克西米利安·莱顿（Maximilian Layton）为首的花旗策略师团 队预测："在美联储新鸽派领导层在2026年5~6月上任的前景、美国实际利率下降及美元承压的推动下， 黄金和白银的牛市行情将进一步扩大，并最终在2026年延伸至铜和铝领域。" 金价再创新高，开启长牛模式 23日，金价涨至3790美元/盎司，此前两个交易日连续上涨。 本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑是市场对美联储将进一步降息的强烈预期。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔仍 强调未来降息路径将保持谨慎，但市场仍预计美联储未来将大幅降息。 瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究主管曼克（Carsten Menke）在本次降息前后对一财记者表示，过去几周，货 币政策无疑是投资需求增加的主要推动力，短线交易员与市场跟风者担心自己会错过这一波上涨，进一 步推动了投资需求的增长。同时，美国经济正显示出明显的降温迹象，提高了市场对美国降息和美元走 软的预期。由于美国总统特朗普持续施加压力，市场担心美联储的独立性。此外，除了投资需求增加的 强劲支撑外，我们预计在当前的季节性疲软之后，央行将重新加强购买。因此，我们坚持对黄金持建设 性看法。 美联储上周 ...

希尔威金属矿业(SVM.US)周一收涨17.27%，报6.11美元，该股今年以来累计上涨104%。 消息面上，周一，纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格上涨69.30美元，涨幅1.9%，收于每盎司 3775.10美元，创下最活跃合约有记录以来的最高收盘价。这是黄金今年以来第36次刷新历史收盘纪 录，年初至今累计涨幅已达到43%，远超1980年经通胀调整后的历史高点。 白银价格也在持续上涨，现货白银周一涨至43.8美元/盎司，创下逾14年新高。随着美联储放松政策、 各大央行增持储备以及持续的地缘政治紧张局势助推避险需求，黄金和白银在多重利好因素支撑下跻身 年内表现最佳的大宗商品之列。此外，白银还因光伏等绿色产业的强劲需求，面临持续的供应缺口。 值得一提的是，公开资料显示，公司El Domo项目目前正处于建设阶段，该项目富含铜、金、银等多种 金属，一方面该项目将帮助希尔威降低对白银、铅锌等原有主力金属价格的过度依赖，实现金属多元 化;其次，根据可行性研究，El Domo项目投产后，在10年矿山寿命期内，预计年均产量约2.1万吨铜当 量，有望成为强大的利润增长点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in the stock price of Silvercorp Metals (SVM.US), which increased by 17.27% to $6.11, marking a cumulative gain of 104% year-to-date [1] - Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange rose by $69.30, or 1.9%, closing at $3,775.10 per ounce, achieving the highest closing price on record for the most active contract [1] - The year-to-date increase in gold prices has reached 43%, surpassing the inflation-adjusted historical peak from 1980, with this being the 36th time gold has set a new historical closing record this year [1] Group 2 - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, with spot silver rising to $43.8 per ounce, reaching a level not seen in over 14 years [1] - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including the Federal Reserve's easing policies, central banks increasing reserves, and ongoing geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven demand [1] - Silver is facing a continuous supply shortage due to strong demand from green industries such as photovoltaics [1] Group 3 - Silvercorp's El Domo project is currently under construction and is rich in copper, gold, and silver, which will help the company diversify its metal portfolio and reduce reliance on silver, lead, and zinc prices [1] - According to feasibility studies, the El Domo project is expected to yield an average annual production of approximately 21,000 tons of copper equivalent over a 10-year mine life, potentially becoming a significant profit growth driver for the company [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 200 points or 0.76%, ending at 26,344 points, with a significant drop of over 300 points at one point during the trading session [3] - The total market turnover decreased by nearly 23% to HKD 290.54 billion, indicating reduced trading activity [3] - The decline in blue-chip stocks was notable, with 71 out of 88 stocks falling, including CITIC Limited down 4.7% and Anta Sports down 2.2% [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's inflation rate rose to 1.1% in August, slightly higher than the 1% increase in July, with transportation prices increasing by 2.5% and housing costs by 1.7% [7] - The overall consumer price index showed a mixed performance, with durable goods and clothing prices declining by 3.1% and 2.8% respectively [7] Group 3: Corporate News - China Rare Earth Holdings announced a placement of 75 million shares to Zijin Mining at a price of HKD 3.13, raising approximately HKD 235 million for its Australian gold mining project [12] - Cloudwise Technology signed a memorandum of understanding with UBTECH for potential strategic cooperation in humanoid robotics, focusing on technology and market resource sharing [13] - Meituan launched a new efficient reasoning model, LongCat-Flash-Thinking, which achieves state-of-the-art performance in various reasoning tasks [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles as a comprehensive product of economic, technological, and social systems, rather than merely focusing on macroeconomic indicators [2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - Following the pandemic, global fiscal stimulus, geopolitical tensions, and a surge in AI capital expenditures have led to a bullish trend in metals and various commodities [3]. - The article questions whether the current commodity bull market can sustain itself and what underlying bullish drivers remain unrecognized by investment banks and media [3]. - The series aims to provide insights and materials for readers to make informed judgments and decisions regarding the commodity market [3]. Group 2: Market Participation and Trading Behavior - The article discusses the role of top traders and their actions in influencing market prices, suggesting that asset price changes are a result of complex interactions within economic and social systems [4]. - It highlights the importance of understanding market rhythms and the process of trading rather than relying solely on predictive models [4][5]. - Historical cycles of economic prosperity and recession (Kondratiev waves) are presented, indicating that the current phase may be entering a recovery period with increased investment demand [6]. Group 3: Strategic Role of Commodities - Recent political developments have led investment banks to believe that commodities will play a more strategic role in investment portfolios, with even a small allocation being considered beneficial [7]. - Goldman Sachs outlines a four-step "control cycle" for commodities, emphasizing the need for supply chain security, market share expansion, concentration of supply, and leveraging geopolitical tools [8][9][10]. - The article suggests that as commodities become a necessary part of investment strategies, their market dynamics will change, potentially leading to increased price volatility and inflation risks [10]. Group 4: Gold as a Safe Haven - The World Gold Council is planning to introduce "digital gold" to innovate the gold trading and settlement process, which could significantly alter the existing gold market ecosystem [15]. - The rising price of gold, particularly since the election of Trump, signals a shift in the global macro environment, indicating a potential bull market for commodities [17]. - The influx of capital into gold futures is expected to have a spillover effect on other commodities, leading to a broad-based bull market [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are experiencing various changes. In the commodity market, precious metals are rising due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations and geopolitical risks, while basic metals face a complex situation with supply - demand imbalances. In the financial market, the stock market shows positive trends, and the bond market is in a state of low - interest - rate and complex trading strategies. The currency market also has fluctuations influenced by multiple factors [4][32][24]. - The Chinese economy has both positive and negative aspects. The GDP maintains a certain growth rate, but there are also challenges in areas such as inflation and fixed - asset investment. The government is taking measures to promote economic development and environmental protection, and the financial sector is actively adjusting policies and structures [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a 5.2% year - on - year growth at constant prices, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, and the CPI had a - 0.4% year - on - year change [1]. - M1 and M2 money supply had year - on - year growth in August 2025, with M1 at 6% and M2 at 8.8% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Metals - International precious metals are rising due to Fed rate - cut expectations, a weak dollar, and geopolitical risks. London basic metals mostly fell, with supply disturbances and weak demand in a complex situation [4]. - As of September 18, tin, zinc, lead, copper, and nickel inventories decreased, while aluminum, cobalt, and alloy inventories remained stable [5]. - Platinum futures prices have risen over 50% this year, outperforming gold futures, and global platinum demand in Q1 2025 increased by 10% year - on - year [5]. 3.2.2 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Shanxi's coalbed methane production in the first 8 months of this year reached 9.81 billion cubic meters, a record high [6]. - Congo (Kinshasa) will lift the cobalt export ban on October 16 and set export quotas. If the ban is extended, cobalt prices may rise [6][7]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - China's Jintan salt - cavern gas storage expanded its capacity, with a 60% increase in daily gas injection and a 2 - fold increase in daily peak - shaving gas extraction [8]. - The EU proposed new sanctions on Russia, including a ban on Russian LNG imports and a $47.6 per - barrel oil price cap [8]. - As OPEC+ voluntary production cuts end, Iraq increased oil exports and earned additional revenue [8]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - China's irrigated farmland area has reached 1.086 billion mu, and water - saving irrigation projects have expanded [10]. - The US will cancel the annual food insecurity survey, but the 2024 results will still be released [10]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 19, the central bank conducted 354.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 124.3 billion yuan [12]. - This week, 1.8268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF are due. The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation method [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the US leaders had a phone call, emphasizing the importance of stable bilateral relations and a good business environment for Chinese companies in the US [15]. - On September 22, the LPR will be announced, and the market expects it to remain unchanged [17]. - 8 - month foreign exchange market data shows stable operation, with increased cross - border receipts and payments and net capital inflows [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Bank - to - bank bond yields generally rose, and bond futures prices fell. The money market improved, and the DR001 weighted average rate dropped to around 1.46% [24]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose and some fell. The convertible bond index also declined [24][25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 46 points at 7.1125, and the RMB central parity rate was down 43 points [28]. - The US dollar index rose 0.30%, and most non - US currencies fell [28]. 3.4 Research Report Highlights - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that bond funds will maintain a medium - to - high duration level [29]. - Guosheng Fixed Income points out that fiscal revenue and expenditure declined in August, and the sustainability of fiscal stimulus is uncertain [29]. 3.5 Stock Market - Since the implementation of "9·24" policies, China's capital market has become more stable, with increased trading volume and new accounts [32]. - Institutions have been actively researching A - share companies, especially in "hard - tech" sectors. High - profile institutions are optimistic about the sustainable rise of the Chinese stock market [33]. - After the Fed's rate cut, foreign institutions expect more capital to flow back to A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [34]. - Private equity institutions' positions have reached a new high this year [34].