来源：紫金天风期货研究所 引言 当地时间1月3日凌晨，委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯多处地区遭遇美军持续约一小时的轰炸，具体地点包括军 用机场、国防部、港口等目标。期间美军三角洲特种部队抓获了熟睡中的该国总统马杜罗及其夫人，并 将他们带往美国。最新消息，1月5日联合国安理会在纽约联合国总部就委内瑞拉局势举行紧急会议。会 上，多国声援委内瑞拉，中国、俄罗斯等多国代表就美国对委军事行动表示强烈谴责。 （来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 【20260106】【专题】美委冲突对有色金属及贵金属市场的影响分析 美委冲突的爆发，本质上是地缘政治博弈与资源争夺的必然结果。除去原油之外，委内瑞拉也同样拥有 丰富的有色金属及贵金属资源。我们就本次冲突对有色金属（铜、铝、镍）、贵金属（黄金、白银、 铂、钯）市场以及可能产生的产业链成本冲击产生的可能性做出分析，并对当下企业如何应对本次局面 给出建议。预计本次文章阅读需要15-20分钟的时间。 目录 第一章 地缘政治风险传导机制 1、委内瑞拉金属资源分布与出口依赖度 2、历史上美国制裁升级对供应链的阻断效应 3、区域冲突对物流通道的冲击路径 第二章 关键金属品种供需分析 1、铝土矿与氧化铝供应中断 ...

分析人士认为，白银价格走高的核心因素是需求结构发生根本性重塑，工业需求成为绝对的主导力量， 这意味着白银价格的波动与全球制造业活动、能源转型进程的关联性等，远超过与货币政策的关联性， 这也是2025年白银期价独立于黄金走出强势上涨格局的原因。 今日周二(1月6日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于78.60一线上方，今日开盘于76.63美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报78.98美元/盎司，上涨3.15%，最高触及79.34美元/盎司，最低下探75.84美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 2026年开年，地缘风险"热度陡增"，贵金属避险价值再现。美国总统唐纳德.特朗普罢免马杜罗为市场 增添了新的地缘政治风险。特朗普表示，如果委内瑞拉临时总统德尔西.罗德里格斯不满足他们的要 求，华盛顿可能会进行第二次军事攻击，依据《卫报》的报导。马杜罗周一对美国在一起毒品恐怖主义 案件中对他的指控表示不认罪，开启了一场具有重大地缘政治影响的非凡法律斗争。 与此同时，白银工业需求连续五年超过供给，库存则降至十年低位，且增产困难，导致供需矛盾激化。 随着全球能源转型加速，光伏、新能源汽车、AI数据中心等领域 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones reaching an intraday record high of 49,209.95 points [1] - The US stock market started the first full trading week of 2026 positively, led by technology and energy stocks [1] - Despite geopolitical risks following the removal of Venezuelan President Maduro, traders showed little concern [1] Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing index for December recorded 47.9, indicating the largest contraction since 2024, with the index below 50 for ten consecutive months [6] - The report suggests that many companies are relying on existing inventory to meet weak demand, although a decrease in customer inventory may signal potential order and production increases in the coming months [6] Commodity Market - Gold prices rose over 2.6% to $4,449.02, with an intraday high of $4,455 [5] - Copper prices surpassed $13,000 per ton due to a strike at a Chilean copper mine, raising supply concerns [5] - The US is expected to face a copper supply shortfall of 300,000 to 400,000 tons in 2026, with demand projected to grow by about 3% [5] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin surpassed $94,000, gaining over 2.8%, while Ethereum rose over 2.9% to $3,237.8 [4] Company News - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced that Neuralink will begin large-scale production of its brain-machine interface devices in 2026, aimed at helping patients with paralysis and neurological diseases [8] - Qualcomm is expanding its PC chip offerings with the new X2Plus processor, targeting the mid-range laptop market [10] - Chevron (CVX.US) saw a 5.2% increase, nearing a new high, while Tesla (TSLA.US) rose by 3% [2]

1月5日，在经历了2025年黄金与白银的强势行情后，贵金属市场的关注焦点正逐步发生变化。 Mhmarkets迈汇认为，随着市场进入新的周期，资金不再只集中于传统避险资产，铂金及钯金等铂族金 属正在重新进入投资者视野，成为2026年值得重点审视的方向。 从数据表现来看，白银、铂金和钯金在去年均录得历史性涨幅，其中白银涨幅接近150%，铂金超过 126%，钯金约80%。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，尽管涨势显著，但铂族金属整体仍未完全反映其供需基本面 的紧张程度，这为后续估值修复留下了空间。 需求结构的变化是市场重新评估铂金和钯金的重要原因。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，虽然电动车发展曾压制 铂族金属情绪，但内燃机车型在多个核心市场依旧保持稳定需求，使汽车行业继续贡献约八成消费量。 同时，玻璃制造与电子产业的稳定用量，也增强了铂金需求的多元支撑。 在供给端，长期投资不足导致的产能受限仍未缓解。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，连续多年的供应缺口已显著 消耗地上库存，目前全球库存仅能覆盖数月需求，这意味着即便市场逐步走向平衡，现货紧张状态仍可 能延续，并对价格形成中长期支撑。 展望2026年，多家机构对铂金价格中枢上移持相对 ...

Group 1 - The core strategy for investing in stocks, particularly in cyclical commodities like non-ferrous metals, is to follow futures prices rather than market trends [1] - In 2025, gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures rising over 60% for the year, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979 [1] - Copper prices also surged, with LME three-month copper reaching a historical peak of $12,960 per ton, and Shanghai copper futures surpassing 100,000 yuan per ton for the first time [1] Group 2 - The recent copper price rally is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar, which directly boosts prices and reduces holding costs, benefiting non-ferrous metals from the Fed's interest rate cuts [2] - Jiangxi Copper's acquisition of the Cascavel copper-gold mine, which holds 12.2 million tons of copper and over 30 million ounces of gold, is expected to double copper production by 2028 [2] - The macroeconomic narrative of "green inflation" and "interest rate cuts" provides strong support for the sector's prosperity, with structural demand for copper driven by AI and new energy [2] Group 3 - The outlook for copper prices in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of further price increases due to limited new supply and ongoing demand from new energy and grid upgrades [2] - Investment plans for 2026 include holding stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Northern Copper, while observing Jiangxi Copper as an industry leader [2] - The international market for gold, silver, and copper futures reached new highs by the end of 2025, indicating a strong upward trend in non-ferrous metals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The capital markets in 2025 experienced significant activity, with the metals sector, particularly precious metals, leading the gains, showcasing a remarkable annual increase of 94.73% by year-end [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The precious metals sector, including silver and gold, saw year-to-date price increases of over 130% and 40%, respectively, despite regulatory interventions causing a pullback in silver prices [4][5]. - In the Hong Kong stock market, the copper sector surged over 261%, significantly outperforming other sectors, while gold and precious metals also saw increases exceeding 170% [4][5]. - The top five performing sectors in the Hong Kong market were all dominated by non-ferrous metals, marking a historical first [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) saw its stock price increase by over 163%, with a market capitalization exceeding 940 billion HKD, outperforming its A-share counterpart [7][9]. - China Molybdenum (03993.HK) experienced a stock price increase of over 287%, with a market cap reaching 410 billion HKD [9]. - China Hongqiao (01378.HK), the largest integrated electrolytic aluminum producer, recorded a stock price increase of 203.7%, with a market cap surpassing 320 billion HKD [9][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, with a net profit of 37.86 billion RMB, up 55.45% [18][20]. - China Hongqiao's revenue for the first half of the year reached 81.04 billion RMB, a 10.12% increase, with a net profit of 12.36 billion RMB, up 35.02% [20][23]. - China Molybdenum's net profit for the first three quarters reached 14.28 billion RMB, a 72.61% increase, despite a revenue decline of 5.99% [24][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026, driven by favorable monetary conditions and a tight supply-demand balance [4][28]. - Global structural supply constraints in copper and aluminum are anticipated to maintain high prices, with projections indicating a significant copper concentrate deficit in 2025 [29]. - Major institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have expressed positive outlooks on the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the growth potential of leading companies like Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao [28][30].

Market Overview - On December 31, the A-share market opened slightly higher, with the three major indices turning positive: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.1%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.13%, and ChiNext Index up 0.22% [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 502.8 billion yuan for the day [2]. Sector Performance - The precious metals sector showed overall gains, while sectors such as agriculture, retail, and oil & petrochemicals underperformed [6][10]. - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a rise, with active trading in industrial metals, copper, cobalt, and nickel stocks [8][9]. Individual Stock Highlights - Jiangxi Copper reached its daily limit, with other stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy, Guocheng Mining, Jingyi Co., and Zijin Mining also seeing gains [9]. - Jia Mei Packaging achieved an 11-day consecutive limit-up, trading at 13.04 yuan per share [11][12]. - On December 31, the newly listed stock Hengdongguang opened at 350 yuan per share, soaring by 1007.95% and reaching a peak increase of 1128.24% [15][16]. Company Specifics - Hengdongguang, established in 2011, focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices in the optical communication field. Its products are widely used in data centers and telecom networks, with clients including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [18]. - The company issued 10.25 million shares at a price of 31.59 yuan per share, aiming to raise approximately 32.38 million yuan, with a net amount expected to be around 27.78 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [19].

新 】 社 主管主办 上海浴券系 (2)中国证券网 大多 美联储会议纪要: 合肥 步降息 印度称其GDP已超日本 【企业资讯】 特斯拉罕见展开预期管 日本软银已完成对Ope 资承诺 (市场回顾) 铜等金属隔夜出 官报、 日经225指数全年累计. 韩国KOSPl指数全年涨 最大年度涨幅纪录 (国际宏观) 【市场回顾】 美东时间12月30日，美股三大指数连续第三个交易日以集体微幅下跌收盘。截至收盘，标准普尔500指数跌0.14%，报6896.24点；纳斯达克综合指数跌 0.24%，报23419.08点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌0.2%，报48367.06点。 欧洲三大股指12月30日全线上涨，英国富时100指数创历史新高。英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数报收于9940.71点，较前一交易日上涨 74.18点，涨幅为0.75%；法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于8168.15点，较前一交易日上涨56.13点，涨幅为0.69%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24490.41 点，较前一交易日上涨139.29点，涨幅为0.57%。 年末备受瞩目的金属市场演绎波动态势，前一交易日从历史高位跳水的白银、铜等金属 ...

Group 1 - The metal market continues to experience significant volatility as strong price increases face reversals, with investors closely monitoring price trends in this sector [1] - On December 30, spot silver rose nearly 5.6% to $76.16 per ounce, following a sell-off driven by speculative trading and supply shortage concerns that previously pushed silver prices to historic highs [1] - Spot gold briefly increased over 1.5% but retreated after reaching the 200-hour moving average, with its gains narrowing post-Federal Reserve meeting minutes, approaching the previous New York closing price of $4,335 [4] Group 2 - Base metals saw a broad increase, with London copper rising approximately 3.7%, potentially marking the longest consecutive increase since 2017, driven by expectations of increased pressure on supply chains [6] - London tin rose by 3.56%, while London zinc increased by over 1% [6] - London nickel surged over 6%, reaching a 14-month high of $16,780 per ton, continuing a rebound since mid-December, influenced by signals of production cuts from Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, aimed at boosting prices [8]

2025年，贵金属板块迎来全面爆发，其中白银的表现尤为惊艳，不仅大幅跑赢黄金，更成为全年商品市场的"明星品种"。 这一轮贵金属的上涨，并非单一因素驱动，而是避险需求、货币政策宽松、供需失衡与投机情绪共同作用的结果。 见下图，黄金价格从年初的每盎司2,624.50美元上涨67.16%，至如今的4,387.06美元。 2025年的全球商品市场，呈现出一幅泾渭分明的"冰火两重天"图景。 在地缘冲突扰动、货币政策转向与产业需求变革的多重合力下，黄金、白银、铜等金属品种涨势凌厉，成为资产配置的"避 风港"与"增长引擎"；而国际油价则在供应宽松与需求疲软的双重压制下持续下行，相关油企股价承压。这种分化格局的背 后，固然有投机资金在拨弄风云，但也不乏基本面的支撑，是宏观周期、产业逻辑与政策预期的深度交织。 贵金属：避险与流动性共振，白银成年度"涨势之王" 需求端：三重逻辑支撑，资金涌入硬通货 地缘风险的持续升温，为贵金属的避险需求提供了坚实基础。美国对委内瑞拉石油供应的封锁仍在持续，地缘冲突的未决 态势始终扰动市场情绪，不确定性的攀升推动全球投资者主动增持黄金、白银等避险资产。 与此同时，全球债务问题的凸显进一步强化了硬通 ...