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美国就业数据爆冷 美股盘前直线跳水!特朗普怒了!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-06-04 14:01
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant slowdown in U.S. hiring, with the private sector adding only 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest level in over two years, indicating weakened labor demand [1][2] - The report shows that the goods-producing sector lost 2,000 jobs, with notable declines in natural resources and mining (5,000 jobs lost) and manufacturing (3,000 jobs lost), while construction added 6,000 jobs [1][2] - In the services sector, leisure and hospitality added 38,000 jobs, and financial activities increased by 20,000, but professional and business services decreased by 17,000, and education and health services dropped by 13,000, contributing to the overall decline [2] Group 2 - Year-over-year wage growth for retained employees was 4.5%, while job switchers saw a 7% increase, indicating stable wage levels [3] - Recent economic data presents mixed signals regarding the job market, with job openings increasing unexpectedly in April, but surveys indicating a decline in hiring intentions [3] - Federal Reserve officials express optimism about the economy but voice concerns over uncertainties related to inflation and employment impacts from tariff policies [3] Group 3 - Following the release of the ADP employment data, President Trump urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth [4] - The stock market reacted negatively, with major U.S. stock index futures dropping sharply in pre-market trading [5]
5月“小非农”跌至近两年冰点 连续两月远逊预期
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 13:12
Group 1 - U.S. corporate hiring activity has slowed to its lowest level in nearly two years, with job cuts observed in sectors such as business services, education, and healthcare, indicating a continued weakening in labor demand [1][2] - According to ADP Research, private sector employment increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, falling short of all economists' predictions in a survey, marking the second consecutive month of significant underperformance [1][2] - The current job market is under dual pressure: a noticeable slowdown in hiring speed and an extended time for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, with economists expecting more signs of cooling in the labor market in the coming months [2][3] Group 2 - Following the data release, stock index futures and U.S. Treasury yields fell, while President Trump reiterated calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates in response to the current situation [3][4] - Despite the hiring slowdown, wage growth remains strong, with a 7% increase for job switchers and a 4.5% increase for retained employees, according to the ADP report, which covers over 25 million U.S. private sector employees [4] - The upcoming U.S. government employment report for May is expected to show a slowdown in non-farm employment growth compared to the strong performance in April, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable [4]
5月小非农“爆冷”!美国就业市场踩下急刹车?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-04 12:33
Group 1 - The ADP report indicates that U.S. private sector job growth slowed to a near standstill in May, with only 37,000 jobs added, the lowest level in over two years, and significantly below the market forecast of 110,000 [1][3] - The report shows a mixed picture in the labor market, with the goods-producing sector losing 2,000 jobs, while the construction industry added 6,000 jobs, partially offsetting losses in other areas [3][4] - In the services sector, leisure and hospitality added 38,000 jobs, while professional/business services and education/health services saw declines, contributing to the overall slowdown in job growth [3][5] Group 2 - The annual salary growth rate for retained employees is 4.5%, while for those who switch jobs, it is 7%, indicating a strong wage growth environment despite the slowdown in job creation [3][5] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some economists expressing concerns about the limited hiring and low turnover rates, suggesting that the labor market may not sustain its current state for long [5][6] - Federal Reserve officials maintain an optimistic view of the economy, but there are rising concerns about the potential impact of trade policies on inflation and employment [5][6]
BCR聚焦国际金融热点: 非农震荡波冲击市场:黄金美元美债同步异动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 05:07
周五公布的美国4月非农就业报告揭开劳动力市场双面图景:新增就业17.7万人远超预期的13万,但前两月累计下 修5.8万;失业率持稳4.2%的同时,薪资年率3.8%低于预期。这份交织着韧性与裂痕的报告,引发金融市场剧烈波 动,黄金急挫8美元,美元飙升20点,美债收益率触及日内低谷。 数据修正暗藏隐忧尽管4月数据表现亮眼,劳工统计局将2月就业人数从11.7万下修至10.2万,3月从22.8万下修至 18.5万,两月累计减少5.8万就业岗位。这种"数据回撤"现象引发市场警惕,显示此前就业市场热度或被高估。 本活动仅限2025年5月1日-5月31日期间新开通的「MT5阿尔法账户类型」参与,账户需完成至少10交易积分 累计,具体兑换流程以客户经理指引为准。 政策博弈暗流涌动美联储5月会议料维持利率不变,但交易员已将年内降息预期调整至四次。惠誉评级美国经济研 究主管Olu Sonola强调:"报告展现的'R'是韧性(Resilience)而非衰退(Recession)。"不过其警告,贸易政策可 能成为新的经济拖累。 劳动力蓄水池扩容劳动参与率微升至62.6%,25-54岁核心工作群体参与率创七个月新高,显示更多潜在劳动者 ...
美国4月就业数据超预期,特朗普政府贸易战阴影下经济前景如何?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 10:11
由于特朗普的关税计划仍处于早期阶段,其影响尚未渗透到招聘中:劳工部在一份声明中表示,上个月 这个全球最大经济体增加了17.7万个工作岗位,略低于3月份修订后的18.5万个。 然而,根据Briefing.com的数据,就业创造仍远高于市场预期的13万个,并且略高于过去12个月的平均 月增长。 失业率保持在4.2%,与预期一致。 就业创 造仍远高于市场预期的13万个 美国政府周五公布的数据显示,4月份美国招聘放缓幅度低于预期,失业率保持不变,这给在唐纳德·特 朗普第二任总统任期初期的动荡月份中导航的投资者带来了信心。 自1月重返办公室以来,特朗普寻求削减联邦雇员数量,并发动了一场许多经济学家警告可能会冷却增 长并推高通胀的贸易战。 根据CME集团的数据,金融市场绝大多数预计美联储下周将延长其暂停降息的期限。 劳工部表示,上个月就业增长的行业包括医疗保健、运输和仓储、金融活动以及社会援助。 但4月份联邦政府就业减少了9000人,使自1月以来政府雇员总数减少了26000人。 特朗普政府因试图解雇数万名联邦员工作为积极削减成本的一部分而面临法律诉讼。 劳工部周五表示,4月份平均小时工资增长0.2%,至36.06美元。 ...
美国4月非农就业增17.7万,大幅好于预期,失业率稳定,薪资增幅放缓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-02 17:10
Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 177,000 in April, exceeding expectations of 138,000, indicating a robust labor market despite trade policy uncertainties [1][2] - The average monthly job growth over the past six months was 193,167, reflecting a steady economic performance [2] - The healthcare sector led job growth with an increase of 51,000 positions, while transportation and warehousing added 29,000 jobs, the largest increase since December [4] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector experienced a decline, losing 1,000 jobs, contrasting with previous expectations of a loss of 5,000 jobs [4] - The federal government reported a reduction of 9,000 jobs, marking the longest streak of federal layoffs since 2022, primarily due to efficiency measures [4] - Private sector employment rose by 167,000, surpassing the expected 125,000, although it was lower than the previous month's figure of 209,000 [6] Group 3 - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a broader measure of unemployment slightly decreasing to 7.8% [7] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, with the participation rate for the prime working age group (25-54 years) reaching a seven-month high [10] - Average hourly earnings grew by 3.8% year-over-year, the lowest since July 2024, indicating a potential cooling in wage growth [9] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the strong employment data may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June, as there are no significant signs of job losses [14] - The market reacted positively to the employment data, with U.S. stock indices and bond yields rising, while the dollar index saw a slight decline [15]
非农报告超预期,细节暗示关税影响!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-02 12:52
Group 1 - The latest non-farm payroll report indicates that the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding the expected 130,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was recorded at 3.8%, slightly below the expected 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The revisions for February and March non-farm employment numbers showed a downward adjustment of 58,000 jobs combined [1] - The healthcare, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance sectors continued to see job growth [3] - The construction sector added 11,000 jobs, which was anticipated due to expected spring activity [3] Group 3 - The transportation and warehousing sector added 29,000 jobs, potentially indicating an increase in tariffs [3] - Average hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations at 0.2%, compared to the anticipated 0.3% [3] - Year-over-year wage growth of 3.8% outpaced consumer price inflation, leading to real income growth [3]
美国4月ADP就业人数增长6.2万人不及预期 为九个月来的最低增速
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-30 12:52
在经济不确定性增加的情况下,美国企业对劳动力的需求正在减弱。有"小非农"之称的ADP就业数据在4月增长大幅放缓,远低于市场预期。 周三,ADP Research公布的数据显示,美国4月ADP就业人数增长6.2万人,是近九个月以来最慢的增长速度,不及预期的11.5万人,前值为15.5万 人。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示: 报告还揭示了工资增长方面的情况。更换工作的人的工资增长了6.9%,是自2024年12月以来的最高水平,3月为6.7%;留在原岗位的人的工资增 长了4.5%,比3月份略有放缓。 生产类工作的招聘表现优于服务类工作。 有分析称,特朗普暂停征收部分关税,已经导致一些企业暂停支出计划,这可能导致未来几个月劳动力需求减弱。此外,包括联邦承包商在内的 公司裁员公告也在增加,这些公司的合同已被美国政府效率部门取消。 密歇根大学的一项月度调查显示,消费者仍然担心未来一年失业率上升和收入增长放缓。美联储主席鲍威尔强调,美联储需要确保关税不会导致 通货膨胀持续上升,他警告称,美联储可能不得不在控制物价压力和支持劳动力市场之间做出选择。 目前,市场普遍预期2025年有四次降息。 "不安是今 ...
美国就业市场拉响警报:4月“小非农”断崖式暴跌!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-04-30 12:43
ADP周三报告称,由于企业准备应对美国总统特朗普对美国贸易伙伴征收关税可能带来的影响,4月招聘速度急剧放缓。 这份报告正值特朗普关税政策对企业招聘计划和更广泛经济状况影响的不确定性加剧之际。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示,"不安是当前的主旋 律。雇主正试图在政策和消费者不确定性与一系列多数积极的经济数据之间取得平衡。在这样的环境下很难做出招聘决定。" 本月,美国私营部门新增就业人数仅为6.2万人,是自2024年7月以来的最小增幅,大幅低于11.5万人的预期,较3月下修后14.7万的增幅有所放缓。 数据公布后,现货黄金短线拉升,并一度重回3290美元。 ADP数据是劳工部周五公布的非农就业报告的先行指标,这两份报告可能存在显著差异。经济学家预计定于周五公布的非农就业报告将显示就业增长13.5万 人,与不包括政府就业的ADP数据不同,预计失业率将维持在4.2%不变。 工资增长也出现放缓,报告显示,留在现有岗位的员工薪资同比上涨4.5%,较3月下降0.1个百分点。然而,跳槽者薪资上涨至6.9%,上升0.2个百分点。 从行业角度来看,休闲和酒店业增幅最大,新增2.7万个就业岗位。其他录得增长的行 ...
关税和国际贸易不确定性飙升 美国4月就业大幅放缓
news flash· 2025-04-30 12:30
关税和国际贸易不确定性飙升 美国4月就业大幅放缓 金十数据4月30日讯,ADP周三报告称,公司在4月份大幅放缓招聘,以应对特朗普总统对美国贸易伙伴 征收关税的潜在影响。私营部门当月就业人数仅增加6.2万人,为2024年7月以来的最小增幅,原因是关 税实施程度及招聘计划和经济状况所受影响的不确定性加剧。工资涨幅也出现了倒退,没换工作的群体 工资同比增长4.5%,较3月份减少0.1个百分点。然而,换工作的人增加到6.9%,上升了0.2个百分点。 从行业角度来看,休闲和酒店业增幅最大,增加2.7万个就业岗位。其他出现增长的行业还包括贸易、 运输和公用事业(2.1万)、金融活动(2万)和建筑(1.6万)。教育和卫生服务岗位减少2.3万个,信 息服务岗位减少8000个。 ...