Group 1 - The company, Jiuwu High-Tech, announced on September 23 that it received a bid notification for the "Comprehensive Utilization and Capacity Expansion Project of Lithium Extraction from the Old Brine of the Lop Nur Salt Lake" from State Investment Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd [2] - The company has signed a procurement contract for the membrane treatment system related to the aforementioned project with State Investment Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply leading to a downward trend that is difficult to reverse. The main logic is capacity mismatch, resulting in strong supply and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of power battery manufacturers to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,527 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.13%, with a production loss of 3,096 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 78,845 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.94%, with a production loss of 8,402 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8] - **Basis**: On September 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 460 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount [8] - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,456 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 59,495 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 137,531 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [8] - **Market Chart**: The MA20 of the market chart was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main players decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Expectation**: In August 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import will be 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.71%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 72,740 - 75,180 [8] 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene was 859 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.12%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2 - 2.5%) was 1,880 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.58% [14] - **Lithium Salt**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.07%. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.07% [14] - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries showed small fluctuations, with some products remaining unchanged [14] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has different trends in different periods [23] - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the export volume has also changed to a certain extent. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different changes [29] - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also shows different results in different months [35] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends in different years [38] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months [40] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The production cost and profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed, and the processing cost is composed of multiple parts [43] - **Import and Other Profits**: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and exporting have all changed [43][45][48] 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has different trends [50] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [50] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium batteries has shown small fluctuations, and the monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends [54] - **Inventory and Bidding**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the EPC bidding situation of energy storage systems have changed [56] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the cost and profit of different types of ternary precursors have different trends [59] - **Capacity Utilization and Supply - Demand Balance**: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has changed, and the supply - demand balance also shows different situations in different months [59][62] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials has changed, and the cost - profit trend of different types of ternary materials has different characteristics [64] - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [64][66] 3.11 Demand - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of phosphorus iron/phosphorus iron lithium has changed, and the cost - profit situation of phosphorus iron lithium has different trends [68] - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium have changed [68][71] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have different trends, and the sales penetration rate has also changed [76] - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indexes of dealers have changed [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall operation of the lithium carbonate market this week was stable, in line with previous expectations. The news of illegal waste disposal by Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. in Qinghai triggered concerns about environmental compliance, but it has not yet had a substantial impact on the supply - demand fundamentals. The core contradiction of lithium carbonate futures price trends in the next month will focus on supply - side factors such as the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo, potential disruptions at Qinghai lithium salt enterprises due to environmental inspections, and market sentiment regarding the "930" node in Jiangxi, as well as demand - side factors such as the support of downstream restocking demand during the peak season [1]. - If the "930" shutdown expectation in Jiangxi is not fulfilled after the National Day holiday, some long positions in the futures market may face closing pressure, potentially suppressing prices in the short term. The evolution of demand will also significantly affect prices. If demand support persists, prices are expected to remain in a reasonable range; otherwise, prices may weaken. By the end of October, if the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo exceeds market expectations, prices will show a weakening trend [2]. - From a national industrial policy perspective, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which may provide phased support for lithium carbonate futures prices. It is estimated that before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The current core contradiction in the lithium carbonate market lies in the supply - side factors such as the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo, potential disruptions at Qinghai lithium salt enterprises due to environmental inspections, and market sentiment regarding the "930" node in Jiangxi, and demand - side factors such as the support of downstream restocking demand during the peak season [1]. - The market focus is first on the "930" shutdown expectation in Jiangxi and further environmental policies. The evolution of demand after the National Day and the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo in late October will also be crucial for price trends [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations. The price range is 70,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, with a low - level range of 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton and a high - level range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: When the price reaches the high - level range, short positions can be established (preferably above 78,000 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to gradually weaken [9]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Hold the long spread of LC2511 - LC2605 and plan to exit at the end of the month [9]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell LC2511 - P - 70000 or put options with a strike price below 70,000 (preferably enter at a price above 1,000); hold the short position of LC2511 - C - 78000 or call options with a strike price above 78,000 (preferably enter at a price above 1,700) [9]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - For lithium - battery enterprises, different hedging strategies are recommended based on different scenarios such as procurement management, sales management, and inventory management, including using futures, on - exchange/over - the - counter options, and different hedging ratios and entry price ranges [11]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: The news of illegal waste disposal by Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. in Qinghai triggered market concerns; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will accelerate the R & D and industrialization of forward - looking technologies; Fulin精工's subsidiary received a 1.5 - billion - yuan prepayment from CATL; Ganfeng Lithium's energy - storage cell production capacity is fully utilized [12]. - **Negative Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is researching and formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry" to prevent low - level redundant construction [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information No relevant information provided. Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated widely, with a simultaneous decline in trading volume and open interest. The weighted index contract closed at 74,015 yuan/ton on Friday, up 3.84% week - on - week. The trading volume was about 492,300 lots, down 5.89% week - on - week, and the open interest was about 734,900 lots, down 3.61% week - on - week [16]. - Technical indicators suggest that the market is likely to enter a stage of fluctuating decline, but considering the support of moving averages, it is expected to maintain a wide - range consolidation pattern. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has the possibility of a phased increase [16]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, there are signs of short - position withdrawal, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [18]. - The term structure of lithium carbonate has changed from a backwardation to a contango structure, and there is a possibility of further weakening in the future [21]. - This week, the basis of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated. Based on historical data and spot - market fundamentals, the basis may weaken after the end of downstream restocking at the end of the month [25]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - The prices of various lithium - related products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed different trends this week, with some raw materials and products experiencing price increases, while others decreased [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain - The profits of lithium - salt enterprises that purchase lithium ore externally have been marginally weakening this week, but most enterprises still maintain a certain level of profitability due to previous hedging positions. The profits of enterprises purchasing lithium spodumene have increased, while those purchasing lithium mica have decreased, indicating a shortage of mica ore [28]. - The processing profits of lithium - iron phosphate plants and cobalt - acid lithium plants have started to strengthen this week, while the profit growth of ternary - material plants and manganese - acid lithium plants has decreased marginally, indicating an improvement in demand for lithium - iron phosphate cells [28]. 4.2 Import and Export Profits - Recently, the import profit of lithium carbonate has been decreasing marginally, which may affect future import volumes. In contrast, the export profit of lithium hydroxide has been increasing [32]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Situation 5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - **Domestic Mine Production**: No specific production data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of domestic lithium - ore production [35]. - **Overseas Mine Imports**: No specific import data was provided, but charts showed the import volume of lithium concentrate by country and the monthly import volume of lithium spodumene by country [37]. - **Lithium Ore Inventory**: The domestic lithium - ore inventory has decreased this week, including the total available inventory, trade - merchant inventory, warehouse inventory, and port inventory [39]. 5.2 Upstream Lithium - Salt Supply - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The total production of sample enterprises this week was 20,363 tons, an increase of 2.00% week - on - week. The production of lithium carbonate from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake materials, and recycled materials also showed different trends [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate Net Exports**: No specific net - export data was provided, but a chart showed the seasonal trend of net exports [58]. - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.71% week - on - week, with a decrease in smelter inventory and an increase in downstream inventory [59]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: No specific production data was provided, but charts showed the monthly production of lithium hydroxide by process, total monthly production, and production by the smelting and causticizing ends, as well as the seasonal trends of production and operating rates [68]. 5.3 Mid - Stream Material Plant Supply - **Material Plant Production**: The production of various materials such as lithium - iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different trends this week, with some increasing and some decreasing [73]. - **Material Plant Inventory**: No specific inventory data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of the total weekly inventory of ternary materials, lithium - iron phosphate, and other materials [83]. 5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - **Power Cell Production**: The weekly production of power cells was 26.01 GWh, an increase of 0.08% week - on - week. The production of iron - lithium and ternary power cells also showed different trends [87]. - **Consumption - Type Cell Production**: No specific monthly production data was provided, but charts showed the monthly production of consumption - type cells by category and the seasonal trends of production [88]. - **Lithium - Battery Installation Volume**: No specific installation - volume data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of the total installation volume of lithium batteries and the installation volume of power lithium batteries by vehicle type [91]. 5.5 New - Energy Vehicles - **New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: The production and sales of new - energy vehicles showed different trends, with the weekly sales of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles increasing by 41.99% week - on - week, and the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles reaching 60.00% [95]. - **New - Energy Commercial Vehicle Production**: The production of new - energy commercial vehicles showed different trends, and charts showed the production volume and seasonal trends [99]. - **Automobile Inventory**: No specific inventory data was provided, but a chart showed the seasonal trend of the domestic automobile dealer inventory warning index [104]. 5.6 Energy Storage - The total bid - winning power and capacity of energy - storage projects showed different trends, and charts showed the total bid - winning capacity and its seasonal trend [106].

责任编辑：小浪快报 9月19日，天齐锂业涨5.59%，截至发稿，报45.56元/股，成交19.16亿元，换手率2.91%，总市值747.74 亿元。 资料显示，天齐锂业股份有限公司位于四川省成都市天府新区红梁西一街166号,香港铜锣湾勿地臣街1 号时代广场2座31楼，成立日期1995年10月16日，上市日期2010年8月31日，公司主营业务涉及锂精矿产 品和锂化合物及其衍生物产品的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：锂化合物及衍生品50.54%，锂矿 49.25%，其他0.21%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，招商基金旗下1只基金重仓天齐锂业。招商中证新能源汽车指数A（013195）二季度减持2.5 万股，持有股数32.17万股，占基金净值比例为2.49%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约 77.53万元。 招商中证新能源汽车指数A（013195）成立日期2021年8月27日，最新规模1.26亿。今年以来收益 42.44%，同类排名870/4222；近一年收益85.97%，同类排名872/3805；成立以来亏损24.96%。 招商中证新能源汽车指数A（013195）基金经理为刘重杰。 截至发稿，刘重 ...

9月19日，天齐锂业涨5.59%，截至发稿，报45.56元/股，成交19.16亿元，换手率2.91%，总市值747.74 亿元。 资料显示，天齐锂业股份有限公司位于四川省成都市天府新区红梁西一街166号,香港铜锣湾勿地臣街1 号时代广场2座31楼，成立日期1995年10月16日，上市日期2010年8月31日，公司主营业务涉及锂精矿产 品和锂化合物及其衍生物产品的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：锂化合物及衍生品50.54%，锂矿 49.25%，其他0.21%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，天弘基金旗下1只基金重仓天齐锂业。天弘中证新能源车A（011512）二季度减持2.68万股， 持有股数72.73万股，占基金净值比例为2.49%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约175.27 万元。 天弘中证新能源车A（011512）成立日期2021年4月9日，最新规模1.3亿。今年以来收益42.73%，同类 排名853/4222；近一年收益84.94%，同类排名894/3805；成立以来收益13%。 天弘中证新能源车A（011512）基金经理为祁世超。 截至发稿，祁世超累计任职时间241天，现任基金资产总规模2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable withdrawal of long positions and a decline in prices, driven by changing supply and demand dynamics and expectations of increased production from major players like CATL [2][9][10]. Market Dynamics - The benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has dropped to 71,683 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.07% decrease week-on-week and an 11.94% decline month-on-month [2]. - On September 10, the main futures contract opened significantly lower, reaching a low of 68,600 yuan/ton, nearly hitting the daily limit down [3][4]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards bearish, with a high proportion of short positions among the top 20 futures companies [4]. Supply and Demand Changes - The recent price drop is attributed to a transformation in the supply-demand fundamentals, particularly due to the anticipated resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxiawo lithium mine [9][10]. - Lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of 85,200 tons, contributing to increased supply [13]. - The cost of producing lithium carbonate from spodumene has decreased from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to approximately 65,000 yuan/ton, further weakening the support for prices [11]. Demand Trends - Demand from traditional sectors, particularly mid-to-low-end electric vehicles, has shown signs of weakness, with battery manufacturers focusing on inventory reduction [14]. - Despite a 5% increase in production from leading battery manufacturers, actual purchasing intentions remain low due to ongoing price declines [14]. - The only bright spot in demand is the energy storage sector, which has seen its production share rise to 38.5%, a historical high [15]. Market Reactions - Traders are adopting a cautious approach, with many inquiries but limited actual transactions, reflecting concerns over further price declines [16]. - High-cost producers, particularly those relying on lithium mica, are facing significant losses and may reduce production or exit the market [17]. Future Outlook - The market is currently seeking a new price equilibrium, with long-term expectations suggesting prices will fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. - Some companies are adjusting their strategies, such as Ganfeng Lithium integrating lithium salt lake assets in Argentina [20]. - New technologies in lithium recovery and direct lithium extraction are gaining attention, with companies exploring ways to reduce costs further [21]. - Industry experts predict that lithium demand will maintain an annual growth rate of over 15% in the next five years, indicating a potential return to supply-demand balance [22].

财报显示，天齐锂业上半年营收为4,832,680,736.98元，同比下降24.71%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为84,410,596元，同比扭亏为 盈；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为1,320,004.23元，同比扭亏为盈。 （校对/黄仁贵） 同时，硫化物固态电解质材料方面，在完成硫化锂产业化筹备工作基础上，针对下游硫化物固态电解质对硫化锂的需求，公司年产50 吨硫化锂中试项目已实质落地并动工。项目采用自主开发的硫化锂制备新技术、新设备，具有低风险、快速量产的能力。 此外，天齐锂业已完成下一代固态电池关键原材料硫化锂的产业化设备及工艺开发，形成可落地的完整工艺数据包。公司研发的电池 级硫化锂微粉新品在均一性、活性方面显著提升，并通过循环提纯技术降低生产成本，为突破全固态电池原材料"卡脖子"难题提供技 术支持。 9月16日，天齐锂业在投资者互动平台表示，在下一代高性能锂电池关键材料研究领域，目前，新型电解制备技术已完成实验级验证， 正积极推进中试线建设；完善稳态合金负极研制实验平台建设，具备"克级-公斤级-百公斤级"系统性开发能力，开发出的五类二元锂合 金负极材料部分进入电芯客户验证阶段；建立300mm幅宽超 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Cobalt - Related Product Prices**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side support during the peak season. The resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine under CATL will be a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to the market pricing in advance the potential downward pressure on prices due to future supply increases, while the demand side provides solid support. The resumption of production at the lithium mine has significant uncertainties, and before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 6,8000 - 76,000 yuan/ton until National Day [3][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the time - limit pressure on lithium mines in Jiangxi for report submission and the policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage. Negative factors include the risk of insufficient restocking during the peak season and the expected resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility Forecast**: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 39.0%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 65.9% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 73,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan (0.69%) and a weekly increase of 280 yuan (0.38%); the trading volume is 500,267 lots, with a daily increase of 17,477 lots (3.62%) and a weekly decrease of 91,408 lots (-15.45%); the open interest is 300,437 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,009 lots (-2.91%) and a weekly decrease of 50,903 lots (-14.49%) [9][10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, show different price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (2.25%) and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (-2.68%) [24]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.57%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.42%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.55%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.35%) [27]. - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,470 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan (0.28%); the average price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary materials is 114,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan (0%) [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., show different price differences. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 is - 237.5 yuan/ton [35]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 38,824 lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [38]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profits**: The report mentions the production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene and lithium mica) and the import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical details are not fully presented [42]. Lithium - Ion Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: - For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 60% of corresponding futures contracts at 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of put options (P - 68,000) [2]. - For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 20% of the futures main contract according to the procurement progress and use 20% of put options + call options [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales prices can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use 20% of put options + call options according to the production plan [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 20% of the futures main contract at 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of call options (C - 77,000) [2].

| 碳酸锂日评20250915:偏弱震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) 2025-09-12 2025-09-11 2025-09-05 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | 近月合约 收盘价 71180.00 71020.00 73880.00 160.00 | | | | 收盘价 71020.00 70860.00 74100.00 160.00 5 连一合约 | | | | 连二合约 收盘价 71360.00 71300.00 74260.00 60.00 5 | | | | 3 连三合约 收盘价 71360.00 71300.00 74300.00 60.00 | | | | 收盘价 71160.00 71000.00 160.00 3 74260.00 | | | | 砖酸包期货 成交堂(手) 410989.00 426041.00 802006.00 -15,052.00 ~ 活跃合约 | | | | (元/吨) 持仓堂(手) 309402.00 323456.00 364002.00 -14,054.00 | | | | 库存(吨) 38625.00 ...