Market Overview - As of January 30, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures closed at 148,200 CNY/ton, with a monthly price increase of 21.9% [2][12] - The highest price during the month reached 181,520 CNY/ton [2] - The average market price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate (99.0%) was 167,000 CNY/ton, up 41.53% year-on-year [2][12] - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 170,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 41.67% increase year-on-year [2][12] Supply Side - Domestic lithium carbonate production in January was 104,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% month-on-month [3][13] - Stringent regulations from the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" have led to production cuts in some enterprises, particularly in Jiangxi [3][13] - Supply is expected to remain constrained into February due to pre-holiday production adjustments and shutdowns [3][13] Demand Side - Demand has exceeded expectations, driven by policy changes that reduced export tax on battery products, stimulating "export rush" [4][13] - The release of policies for large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs has improved demand forecasts for the new energy vehicle market [4][13] - Despite traditional seasonal demand declines in January, the overall market for terminal power and energy storage has performed well [4][13] Cost and Profitability - Costs have continued to rise, with prices exceeding 11,000 USD/ton [14] - Profit margins have improved for companies with their own mines and salt lakes, while contract manufacturing fees have seen slight increases [14] Inventory Levels - Total inventory decreased to 107,500 tons, with lithium salt plant inventory stable and downstream inventory slightly reduced [14] Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced a new capacity pricing mechanism, which is expected to positively impact storage demand and lithium carbonate prices [5][14] Strategy Outlook - The new capacity pricing policy is anticipated to boost demand expectations, with lithium carbonate prices likely to continue rising [6][15] - However, caution is advised due to previous price increases and potential risks of market corrections [6][15]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries (09696) anticipates a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the year ending December 31, 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between RMB 369 million and RMB 553 million, compared to a net loss of approximately RMB 7.905 billion in the previous year [1] Group 1 - The expected net profit range for the current reporting period is RMB 369 million to RMB 553 million, while the previous year recorded a net loss of RMB 7.905 billion [1] - The projected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is estimated to be between RMB 240 million and RMB 360 million, compared to a loss of RMB 792.3 million in the prior year [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between RMB 0.22 and RMB 0.34, a significant improvement from a loss of RMB 4.82 per share in the previous year [1] Group 2 - The main reason for the expected performance change is the reduced impact of pricing cycle mismatches in lithium product sales, despite a decline in sales prices due to market fluctuations [1] - The company’s subsidiary, Windfield Holdings Pty Ltd, has improved its pricing cycle, which has positively affected the cost of lithium concentrate used in production [1] - The company is also benefiting from the gradual consumption of inventory lithium concentrate and the arrival of newly purchased lithium concentrate [1] Group 3 - The company’s investment income from its associate, Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM), is expected to increase significantly due to projected growth in SQM's performance for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] - The appreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar has resulted in increased foreign exchange gains compared to the previous year [2] - The company plans to conduct impairment tests on assets showing signs of impairment as of the 2025 balance sheet date, with preliminary estimates indicating a reduction in impairment losses compared to 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) has completed the issuance of its first phase of green technology innovation bonds for 2026, raising a total of 500 million yuan at an interest rate of 2.19% [1] Group 1 - The total amount raised from the issuance of the short-term financing bonds is 500 million yuan [1] - The interest rate for the bonds issued is set at 2.19% [1] - The funds raised will primarily be used for repaying the company's interest-bearing debts, replacing self-owned funds for repaying interest-bearing liabilities, and purchasing raw materials [1]

证券日报网讯 1月28日，永杉锂业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至目前，公司并无自有锂矿资 源，锂矿主要来源为长协采购。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main contract and basis**: On January 27, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 165,680 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 3,100 yuan/ton or about 1.84% from the previous day. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, to 12,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 23,840 yuan/ton [1][31]. - **Open interest and trading volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased to 416,719 lots, a decrease of 21,909 lots or about 5%. The trading volume increased to 575,675 lots, an increase of 232,870 lots or about 68% [1][32]. *** Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable on January 27, 2026, at 19,470 yuan/ton and 8,700 yuan/ton, respectively. However, information indicated that lithium ore prices had increased slightly recently, and overseas mine quotes had risen. The smelter operating rate remained stable at 87.14%, but the reluctance to sell among upstream lithium salt producers had increased, and some manufacturers had hoarded goods, resulting in a weak willingness to sell spot orders. On January 16, 2026, Yahua Group announced the commissioning of its lithium mine project in Zimbabwe, which increased self - sufficiency, but the overall supply increase was limited [2]. - **Demand side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On January 27, 2026, the price of power ternary materials was 188,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of power lithium iron phosphate was 58,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,185 yuan/ton. Although the prices of some battery cells had increased, the demand for new energy vehicles was weak. According to data from the Passenger Car Association on January 21, 2026, the retail sales from January 1 - 18 decreased by 16% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 23%. Downstream material manufacturers mainly purchased on demand, and some began to stock up for February, but overall purchases were cautious. Coupled with the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, the demand side lacked support [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: As of January 23, 2026, the lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 physical tons, a slight decrease of 783 tons or 0.71% from 109,679 physical tons on January 16, 2026, continuing the de - stocking trend [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The weak demand persists, with the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream purchases restricting the upside space. Meanwhile, although the supply side has support from reluctance to sell and inventory de - stocking, the stable lithium ore prices and high capacity utilization rate limit the rebound strength. The overall market may experience increased volatility under the weak supply - demand balance but lacks a breakthrough driver [3].

碳酸锂周报 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 大大大大 作者：陈琳萱 从业资格证号：F03108575 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 观点小结 | 碳酸锂 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 2月需求排产环比预计下调，只是下调幅度也落在了市场于12月给出的判断内，而抢出口、上游涨价引发的负反馈等预期均未明显体现在2 月的排产数据中，可关注排产与实际产量间是否存在较大差距。而年前在需求旺盛的远期展望下，3月的需求排产给到了显著上调的判断， 使得Q1需求呈现出环比基本持平的态势，因此在2月数据未超预期的情况下，后续3月需求排产的变动或将对期价造成一定扰动。短期在下 | | | | 游未有强负反馈的情况下，价格或仍偏向于震荡偏强态势。此外，近期监管较为严格，关注日内价格振幅，建议投资者谨慎持仓。 | | 碳酸锂现货价格 | 偏多 | 上周电碳现货价格环比上涨8000元/吨至171000元/吨。 | | 月差 | 中性 | ...

格隆汇1月28日丨永杉锂业(603399.SH)在互动平台表示，截至目前，公司并无自有锂矿资源，锂矿主要 来源为长协采购。 ...

| 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 166740 | 6240 | 3.89% | 4800 | 2.96% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 376418 | -74656 | -16.55% | -212601 | -36.09% | 手 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 427928 | 12577 | 3.03% | -24655 | -5.45% | 手 | | 加权指数合约收盘价 | 167131 | 6304 | 3.92% | 4713 | 2.90% | 元/吨 | | 加权指数合约成交量 | 492964 | -121292 | -19.75% | -593880 | -54.64% | 手 | | 加权指数合约持仓量 | 848112 | 16036 | 1.93% | -38206 | -4.31% | 手 | | LC2605-LC2607 | -620 | 240 | -27.91% | 120 | -16.22% | 元/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved impressive Q3 performance in 2025, with revenue of 6.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 334 million yuan, up 116.02% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to stable orders from high-quality customers and improved operational efficiency [1] - The demand for energy storage is expected to rise, with global lithium battery shipments projected to reach 620 GWh in 2025, a 77% increase year-on-year, and 960 GWh in 2026, a 54.8% increase. This trend is expected to create a favorable supply-demand landscape for lithium [2] - The company has established a diversified lithium resource guarantee system through self-controlled and purchased mines, ensuring stable raw material supply. The Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe has a processing capacity of 2.3 million tons per year [2] - The company is advancing its solid-state battery layout, with plans to start building a lithium sulfide pilot line in 2026, achieving industry-leading product specifications [3] - The company is actively participating in mergers and acquisitions in the civil explosives industry, aiming to expand capacity and business reach, particularly in Africa and Australia [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts a net profit of 610 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 36.3%, and an increase to 1.31 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 5.6% rise. The projected net profit for 2027 is 1.59 billion yuan, with P/E ratios of 44, 21, and 17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - Revenue is expected to decline to 7.716 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 8.693 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 11.757 billion yuan in 2026 and 14.745 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 13.5% in 2023 to 25.4% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the company, Keli Yuan, is focusing on increasing its lithium carbonate production capacity and reducing production costs through enhanced mining operations and resource procurement [2] Group 2 - The company sources its lithium carbonate raw materials primarily from its four lithium resource mines, supplemented by external procurement [2] - Keli Yuan's subsidiary, Jinfeng Lithium Industry, has a planned production capacity of 30,000 tons per year for lithium carbonate, with the first phase of 10,000 tons already reaching full production in 2023 [2] - The subsequent 20,000 tons production line will be accelerated based on technological development progress and market conditions [2]