Group 1 - Indonesia is implementing strict production limits on its nickel industry, significantly reducing the annual production quota of PT Weda Bay Nickel from 4.2 million tons in 2025 to 1.2 million tons in 2026, a decrease of over 70% [1] - The country aims to reverse the long-term decline in nickel prices, as its nickel supply accounts for approximately 65% of the global market, which has pressured prices and led to production halts in Australia and New Caledonia [1] - Indonesia plans to lower its national nickel production target for 2026 from 379 million tons in 2025 to 260 million tons, with a series of tightening measures expected to support a rapid rebound in nickel prices and create bullish market expectations [1] Group 2 - Eramet has confirmed the quota reduction and plans to apply for a revision, while the Weda Bay Nickel mine, located in Indonesia's North Maluku province, was initially set to expand production to over 6 million tons, a plan that is now unfeasible [2] - Weda Bay Nickel has been a core source of nickel supply in Indonesia, characterized by strong "park closure" and "related transactions," with nearly all output used to meet the smelting capacity within the Weda Bay Industrial Park [2] - Some companies in the industrial park are now forced to import nickel ore from the Philippines due to insufficient local raw materials, highlighting the impact of regulatory shocks on supply chains [2] Group 3 - Zhongwei New Materials holds equity in multiple nickel mines in Indonesia and has secured a supply of 600 million wet tons of nickel ore, establishing four nickel raw material industrial bases that cover a full product matrix from nickel ore to various nickel products [3] - The company has diversified its nickel supply in response to the production limits at Weda Bay Nickel, ensuring that its own nickel mines near the Debang project will prioritize supply for that project, providing a safety net for its business operations [3] - Zhongwei New Materials is a global leader in the field of nickel-based materials for new energy, ranking first in global shipments of nickel materials from 2020 to 2025, with a projected market share of 31.7% for high-nickel ternary precursors in 2024 [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia has announced a significant reduction of 70% in the annual nickel ore production quota for the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel, in response to rising raw material prices in the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Production Cuts and Market Impact - Weda Bay Nickel's production quota for 2026 is set at 12 million tons, down from 42 million tons in 2025, marking a direct halving of production [3]. - The reduction aims to reverse the long-term low nickel prices, as Indonesia's nickel supply has accounted for approximately 65% of the global market, which has suppressed prices and led to production halts in other regions [3]. - Indonesia plans to lower its national nickel production target for 2026 from 379 million tons in 2025 to 260 million tons, indicating a series of tightening measures to support a price rebound [3]. Group 2: Global Market Reactions - Following the announcement, nickel prices began to rise on the London Metal Exchange (LME), with major investment banks adjusting their price forecasts for 2026 significantly upward [5]. - Macquarie raised its average nickel price forecast for 2026 from $15,000 to $17,750 per ton, while Goldman Sachs increased its forecast from $14,800 to $17,200 per ton, predicting prices could reach around $18,700 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 [5]. - There is a consensus in the market that Indonesia's production cut is a strategic move rather than a short-term reaction, indicating a long-term shift in the nickel market dynamics [5]. Group 3: Long-term Strategic Considerations - Indonesia's production cut is part of a broader strategy to move away from being a low-cost resource exporter and to develop its domestic nickel refining and processing industries [6]. - The goal is to gain pricing power within the global EV supply chain, allowing Indonesia to capture a larger share of the industry's profits [6]. - This strategic shift is expected to have profound implications for the global nickel market and reshape the competitive landscape of the EV industry [6]. Group 4: Industry Adaptations and Innovations - The tight nickel supply situation has prompted the EV industry to explore alternative battery technologies, such as low-nickel or nickel-free battery solutions, to reduce dependency on high-nickel batteries [8]. - Lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) batteries, which use more abundant and stable materials, are gaining attention as a viable alternative [8]. - The recycling of nickel from waste materials is emerging as a crucial strategy to alleviate supply pressures, with the potential for significant profit margins as nickel prices rise [9]. Group 5: Global Resource Strategies - Companies in the EV supply chain are pursuing global resource strategies, including investments in nickel mining and refining projects in regions like New Caledonia and Australia to diversify supply sources [9]. - New Caledonia is attracting attention due to its rich nickel reserves, providing a strategic option for companies to mitigate supply chain risks [9]. - This cross-regional resource strategy enhances the bargaining power and supply chain control of EV industry players, reducing risks associated with supply disruptions in any single region [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the information game between Indonesia and the Philippines [1]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,610, with a change compared to T - 1 of 250, T - 5 of 5,180, T - 10 of - 7,860, T - 22 of 1,160, and T - 66 of 20,900 [1]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,970, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 70, T - 5 of 160, T - 10 of - 615, T - 22 of 180, and T - 66 of 1,545 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 433,838, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 84,787, T - 5 of - 148,686, T - 10 of - 349,437, T - 22 of - 843,852, and T - 66 of 335,590 [1]. - The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 220,012, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 43,037, T - 5 of - 110,145, T - 10 of - 228,480, T - 22 of - 127,542, and T - 66 of 80,309 [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 140,750, with a change compared to T - 1 of 3,000, T - 5 of 5,550, T - 10 of - 3,900, T - 22 of - 250, and T - 66 of 21,750 [1]. - The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,052, with a change compared to T - 1 of 9, T - 5 of 14, T - 10 of - 3, T - 22 of 71, and T - 66 of 143 [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of 0, T - 10 of - 300, T - 22 of 200, and T - 66 of 1,275 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of - 300, T - 10 of - 1,450, T - 22 of - 900, and T - 66 of 3,505 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [3]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for some companies [3]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB [4]. - Philippine miners claim that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The nickel price has recently shown a volatile consolidation pattern, with the fundamentals continuing the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although the market expects a significant contraction in Indonesian nickel supply due to quota reduction, the previous increase in nickel price has led to a short - term increase in supply and continuous accumulation of domestic inventory. In the future, the nickel fundamentals still have a repair expectation. The raw material ore price has risen significantly, and the rainy - season disturbances and the delay of the MOMS system review still restrict the supply. The nickel ore premium may increase further, and the cost support of the nickel industry chain is strong, which is expected to provide bottom - line resilience for the price [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Futures**: Last week, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 138,000 yuan/ton, closed at 131,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 141,100 yuan/ton and a low of 129,300 yuan/ton, down 5.83% for the week. The stainless - steel main contract opened at 14,100 yuan/ton, closed at 13,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 14,115 yuan/ton and a low of 13,420 yuan/ton, down 3.32% for the week [9][79]. - **Spot**: As of February 9, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 139,450 yuan/ton, a 0.53% week - on - week decrease; the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 144,150 yuan/ton, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; the imported nickel price decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 134,600 yuan/ton, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease. The 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,100 yuan/ton [16][79]. - **Import and Export**: As of February 6, the LME nickel price decreased by 320 US dollars/ton to 17,235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% week - on - week decrease. The electrolytic nickel import profit and loss decreased by 69.9 yuan/ton to - 476.27 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic nickel export profit and loss increased by 265.28 US dollars/ton to - 1,178.88 US dollars/ton [21]. 3.2 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - **Price**: As of February 9, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were 30, 64.5, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +0, +5, +0. The ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were 22 and 60.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of +0.5 and +5.9 [34]. - **Supply**: The Philippine nickel ore output is usually at a very low level at the beginning of the year. The Surigao and Homonhon mining areas are in the rainy - season peak, while Palawan and Zambales are in the dry season and are the main sources of export supply. Some Indonesian mining areas are still affected by rainfall, and the production and circulation efficiency is low. The supply - side increment is limited due to the RKAB quota reduction expectation and the review of the forestry working group [34][4]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 230,000 tons to 6.83 million wet tons, a 3.26% week - on - week decrease [37]. 3.3 Intermediate Products - **Production**: As of January 2026, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.3 to 42,000 nickel tons, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ice - nickel metal production in January 2026 was 41,500 tons, a 4.06% month - on - month increase and a 31.05% year - on - year increase [42]. - **Price**: As of February 9, the MHP FOB price decreased by 1,234 US dollars/ton to 14,870 US dollars/ton, a 7.66% week - on - week decrease; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 1,270 US dollars/ton to 15,362 US dollars/ton, a 7.64% week - on - week decrease [42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 6,300 tons to 37,700 tons, a 20.06% month - on - month increase and a 25.54% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 4,398 tons to 51,300 tons, a 9.38% week - on - week increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,300 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 2,582 tons to 73,200 tons, a 3.65% week - on - week increase [51]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's nickel sulfate monthly production decreased by 1,414 tons to 33,600 nickel tons, a 4.04% month - on - month decrease [63]. - **Demand**: Before the Spring Festival, the downstream precursor and battery factory stocking was basically completed, with only rigid - demand restocking. The high - nickel ternary production scheduling slowed down seasonally, and the trading was light [63]. 3.6 Ferronickel - **Production**: As of January 2026, the national ferronickel production (metal content) increased by 2,000 tons to 23,200 tons, a 9.47% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 9,200 tons to 132,100 nickel tons, a 6.51% month - on - month decrease [73]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ferronickel cost pressure intensified, and the profit space significantly narrowed. The high cost was difficult to be passed on to the downstream due to weak demand [75]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 165,500 tons to 3.426 million tons, a 5.08% month - on - month increase and a 24.83% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the production scheduling in February 2026 will be 2.651 million tons, a 22.62% month - on - month decrease and a 12.49% year - on - year decrease [82]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 12,300 tons to 964,900 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week increase. The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 9,705 tons to 53,500 tons, a 22.18% week - on - week increase [85]. - **Cost**: As of February 9, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 141 yuan/ton to 13,696 yuan/ton, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease [88].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Indonesia's nickel mining policy significantly impacts global nickel prices, with recent announcements leading to a notable increase in nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) [1][3][23] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a nickel mining production target of 260 to 270 million tons for 2026, with major mines like Weda Bay Nickel receiving a reduced approval rate of only 30% [1][3][10] - The tightening of supply due to policy changes has led to a significant price increase, with the SHFE nickel futures contract reaching a high of 140,230 and closing at 139,360, marking a daily increase of 4.51% [1][3][23] Group 2 - The article discusses the synergistic support for nickel prices from both endogenous and exogenous factors, suggesting that the current market conditions do not warrant a bearish outlook on nickel prices [2][11] - Exogenous factors include the strengthening of nickel's financial attributes and its strategic metal positioning, while endogenous factors highlight structural shortages in the spot market and rising industry costs that limit price declines [2][11] - The overall expectation is that the main price range for SHFE nickel will stabilize between 135,000 and 140,000, with potential catalysts from future policy adjustments [2][23] Group 3 - Historical analysis indicates that Indonesia's nickel mining policies have been inconsistent, often leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations and prices [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming policy revisions and quota distributions, particularly in February and March, as well as the mid-year review of the RKAB [24] - The supply-demand balance for nickel is projected to face challenges, with potential shortfalls if the government implements strict policies too quickly [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction in nickel production quotas by the Indonesian government for the world's largest nickel mine, aiming to boost global prices for this essential battery metal [2][3]. Group 1: Nickel Market Overview - The Indonesian government has set the 2026 production quota for the Weda Bay nickel mine at 12 million tons, a drastic decrease from 42 million tons in 2025 [2][3]. - This reduction is part of Indonesia's aggressive measures to increase the price of nickel, which has seen a significant drop due to oversupply, accounting for approximately 65% of global production [3][4]. - Following the announcement of the production cut, nickel futures prices on the London Metal Exchange rose by 2.8%, reaching $17,980 per ton [5]. Group 2: Impact on Companies - The production cut will severely impact the Weda Bay nickel mine, which had plans to increase output to over 60 million tons to support a nearby industrial park [5]. - The mine is co-owned by China’s Tsingshan Holding Group, France’s Eramet Group, and Indonesia’s state-owned Antam, with Eramet confirming the scale of the production cut [3][5]. - Due to local supply shortages, the mine has been forced to import significant amounts of ore from the Philippines [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is still evaluating the production quotas, and the mine's representatives have not responded to requests for comments [7]. - The Weda Bay nickel mine is also facing penalties for forestry permit violations, with potential fines reaching 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately 1.24 billion yuan) [7].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's drastic reduction of nickel mining quotas for the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, from 42 million wet tons in 2025 to 12 million wet tons in 2026, signals a shift towards production control and price stabilization in the global nickel market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Quota Changes and Market Impact - The quota for Weda Bay was cut by 71.4%, marking one of the most aggressive adjustments in Indonesian nickel mining history [22]. - Indonesia's overall nickel mining quota for 2026 has been reduced from 379 million wet tons to 250-260 million wet tons, a decrease of 34% [4][22]. - The reduction in quotas has led to a rebound in LME nickel prices, which increased by 22% following the announcement [2][22]. Group 2: Indonesia's Strategic Intent - Indonesia aims to transition from aggressive mining to a model similar to OPEC, focusing on limiting production to enhance prices [5][24]. - The Indonesian government has clear motives: maximizing national revenue by selling less at higher prices, strengthening control over the entire nickel supply chain, and creating supply tightness to reduce global nickel inventories [8][9][25]. - Indonesia holds 42% of global nickel reserves and accounted for 67% of nickel production in 2025, giving it significant market power [7][24]. Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - The competition for nickel pricing is intensifying, with China seeking to establish pricing authority through internationalization of nickel futures, while the U.S. is forming alliances to reshape global mineral supply chains [26][27][29]. - The geopolitical landscape is evolving, with resource-rich countries like Indonesia aiming to maximize their resource profits, while consumer nations like China strive to stabilize prices and secure pricing power [30][31]. - The current environment reflects a shift from globalization to a more fragmented resource competition, with significant implications for future industrial structures [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government is taking measures to boost global nickel prices by significantly reducing the production quota for Weda Bay Nickel, the world's largest nickel mine, from 42 million tons in 2025 to 12 million tons this year, a reduction of 71% [1][2]. Group 1: Production Quota Changes - Weda Bay Nickel has been informed of a production quota of 12 million tons for this year, a substantial decrease from the previously planned 42 million tons for 2025 [1][2]. - The reduction in production quota is part of Indonesia's strategy to stabilize nickel prices, which have been under pressure due to oversupply [2][3]. - Indonesia's nickel supply has surged to account for approximately 65% of global production, contributing to a prolonged decline in nickel prices over the past two years [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The drastic cut in Weda Bay Nickel's production is expected to significantly alter the global nickel supply-demand dynamics, especially with the growing demand in sectors like electric vehicle batteries [2][3]. - Following the announcement, LME nickel futures prices rose nearly 2% to $17,888 per ton, marking the fourth consecutive day of price increases [1]. - Indonesia's overall nickel production quota for the year is projected to be between 260 million to 270 million tons, which is slightly above market expectations but still lower than the 379 million tons anticipated for 2025 [3]. Group 3: Operational and Strategic Implications - The significant reduction in production quota will directly impact Weda Bay Nickel's operational and expansion plans, which previously aimed to increase annual output to over 60 million tons [3]. - The company and its shareholders will need to reassess their investment and production strategies in light of the new quota [3].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia has approved a nickel mining quota of approximately 260 million to 270 million tons for the year 2026, as reported by local media citing mining department official Tri Winarno [1] Group 1 - Indonesia's mining department has set a significant quota for nickel extraction, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its mining sector [1] - The approved quota reflects Indonesia's strategic position in the global nickel market, which is crucial for battery production and electric vehicles [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and investment suggestions for each commodity [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][8][9]. - **Silver**: The price is expected to fall from a high level, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][8][9]. - **Platinum**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][29][30]. - **Palladium**: The price is expected to oscillate within a box, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][13]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][16]. - **Lead**: Due to losses in the recycling sector, attention is paid to the lower - level support, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Technical repair is underway, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the departure of funds before the holiday, the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesia, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the downside space is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][44]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday spot transactions, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand expectation is weakening, and the price is oscillating and falling, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The apparent demand decreases month - on - month, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][53]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand decreases month - on - month, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][53]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sentiment of the sector is weak, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][57]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: The sentiment of the sector is weak, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Long - position holders take profits, and the price oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][61]. - **Coking Coal**: Long - position holders take profits, and the price oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][62]. - **Log**: The demand expectation is poor, and the price is falling, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][65]. - **Para - Xylene**: It is in a unilateral oscillating market, and the month - spread is weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **PTA**: It is in a range - bound market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **MEG**: Interval operation is recommended, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][81]. - **LLDPE**: Spot transactions have stagnated, and funds are seeking risk - aversion, showing an oscillating market, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][84]. - **PP**: The valuation repair is limited, and the weekly export orders are declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][87]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][90]. - **Pulp**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][100]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][102]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to oscillate with support, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][108]. - **Styrene**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][111]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][114]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][118]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand remains tight, and the upward driving force is weakening, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][118]. - **PVC**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price rebounded at night, and the short - term weakness was temporarily alleviated, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][128]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][128]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the opening guidance of the near - month contract; a light long position can be established in the 7 - 9 positive spread, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][130]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][145]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][149]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental driving force is limited, and the price is supported by energy prices, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][153]. - **Soybean Meal**: It may oscillate following the US soybean, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][158]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong, with a trend intensity of +1 [2][158]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate narrowly, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][161]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][164]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][168]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][173]. - **Live Pig**: The peak season is confirmed not to be prosperous, and the release of the backlog has begun, with a trend intensity of - 2 [2][176]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][181].