行业 欧线集运月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 挺价曙光初现 20240809【专题报告】宏观数据 走索，加速欧线集运下行 全线下挫，远月合约跌停 升破 4700 点后大幅下挫 再起，欧线主力升破 2800 点 20240419【市场点评】伊以冲突 推动欧线合约创新高，主力合约 升破 2700 点 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 20240826【专题报告】多种因素 推动欧线季节性走势 9~10 月为传统淡季，且运力调控力度有限，供给压力仍存， 不过船司开始为年末长约季挺价，纷纷调涨 10 月下半月运 价，虽然宣 ...

09:26 黄金股开盘大涨，赤峰黄金、四川黄金竞价涨停，山金国际、西部黄金、山东黄金、中金黄金等 多股高开。消息面上，10月8日，现货黄金历史首次突破4000美元/盎司大关，年内涨幅超52%。 09:25 A股开盘丨沪指跳空高开0.4% 沪指高开0.40%，深成指高开0.53%，创业板指高开0.40%，科创50涨2.12%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3 | 3898.31c | 15.53 | 0.40% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | VV | 13598.35c | 71.84 | 0.53% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | "In | 3251.04c | 12.88 | 0.40% | | 000688 | 科创50 | ww | 1526.92c | 31.63 | 2.12% | 09:35 蓝丰生化盘初涨停后快速触及跌停，上演"天地板"，此前连续7日涨停。 | 200 3日 19 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 11 7 第 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货9月29日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,150.8 | 1,141.0 | 1,115.0 | 1,122.0 | -35.8 | -3.11 | 16679 ...

2025.09.29 本文字数：693，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 |一财阿驴 09:39存储芯片概念股反复活跃，香农芯创直线拉升涨超6%，德明利、佰维存储、协创数据跟涨。消息 面上，存储模组大厂威刚日前宣布，自29日起停止DDR4报价，DDR5与NAND闪存优先供应主要客 户。 09:36集运欧线期货主力合约日内跌幅扩大至4%，报1102.6点。 09:33创业板指涨超1%，电池、有色金属、存储芯片等板块涨幅居前。 恒指高开0.74%，恒生科技指数涨0.67%。医药股回暖，来凯医药涨近15%，LAE102针对治疗肥胖症 MAD研究取得积极初步结果；科网股反弹，京东健康高开2%，中芯国际涨超1%；贵金属续涨，紫金矿 业涨3%。 | મટા | 恒生指数 | NW | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | hom | 1.58 | 796 | PS：家人们！ 睁大你们的双眼，握紧你们的手机！ 没错，你们催了八百遍的「实体周边」 它！终！于！来！了！ 09:27电池板块开盘涨幅居前，天际股份涨超9%，湖南裕能、鹏辉能源、万润新能、容百科技、天宏锂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਿੱਚ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交昆 | | 昨日持会昆 | 持仓变动 -5414 | | | EC2510 | | 1173.0 | 5.26 | 267.2 | 38888 | | 35526 | | | | EC2512 | | 1783.1 | 5.10 | -342.9 | 23493 | | 22995 | BB9 | | | EC2602 | | 1696.2 | 6.81 | -256.0 | | 5485 | 8709 | 666 | | | EC2604 | | 1285.1 | 1.91 | 155.1 | | 1964 | 8957 | 26 | | 期間 | EC2606 | | 1482.3 | 2.56 | -42.1 | | 212 | 952 | -3 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前内日 | 前三日 | 日环比 ...

品种观点 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 26 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：公募基金规模首破 36 万亿 中基协发布数据显示，我国公募基金规模首次突破 36 万亿元大关，截至 8 月底 达到 36.25 万亿元，单月猛增 1.18 万亿元。股债跷跷板效应下，债券基金规模 小幅下降 285 亿元。商务部发布公告，决定将扁平地球管理公司等 3 家美国实体 列入出口管制管控名单，决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投资壁垒调查。 美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%，创近两年新高，PCE 物价指数 2.6%，显示 出通胀压力比之前评估的更为顽固。美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人， 为 7 月以来最低。市场对 10 月降息预期有所降温。美股三大指数三连跌，2 年 期美债收益率回升，黄金、原油价格上涨。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指继续反弹，传媒板块领涨，纺织服饰 板块领跌，市场成交额 2.39 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 24 日融资余额增加 140.82 亿元至 24141.23 亿元。整体上而言 9 月走势相对 7 月和 8 月更为波折，我们认 为是进入了 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the October freight rates are further reduced. The spot freight prices show a smooth downward trend in the off - season, with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the freight rate reduction rate can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East is expected to support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December contracts, and the October contracts are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the October freight rates are further reduced. The spot freight prices of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route and other routes have decreased significantly, showing a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: There may be low - buying opportunities in December contracts, and the October contracts are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Shipping Market**: From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the freight rates of ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the comprehensive index expanded. The freight rates of European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all decreased [9]. - **Economic Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. Germany's September ZEW economic situation index fell to - 76.4 points, and the US September Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 55.4, both lower than market expectations [9][10]. - **Middle East Situation**: The US vetoed the permanent cease - fire resolution in Gaza at the UN Security Council. There are continuous military operations between the Israeli army and Hamas in Gaza, which has a certain impact on the shipping market [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **European Route**: On September 22, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1254.92 points, a decrease of 12.9% compared with September 15th [12]. - **US West Route**: On September 22, 2025, the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, a decrease of 11.6% compared with September 15th [12]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - **Contract Data**: The trading data of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 24th are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][17][22]

集运宝宝 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导演 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1114.4 | 1.31 | 325.8 | 46816 | | 40940 | 5568 | | | EC2512 | | 1696.5 | 4.50 | -256.3 | 26219 | | 22606 | 433 | | | EC2602 | | 1588.1 | 3.42 | -147.9 | 4582 | | 8043 | 442 | | | EC2604 | | 1261.0 | 2.14 | 179.2 | 1655 | | 8931 | 777 | | | EC2606 | | 1445.3 | 1.69 | -5.1 | | 105 | ે રેસ્ટ | -6 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前内日 | 前一日 | 日环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a deep decline in the container shipping freight index at a low level, with power plant daily consumption experiencing a seasonal decline, and inflation marked by a further drop in pork prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Deep Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index at a Low Level 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has declined seasonally. On September 23, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 864,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease from September 16. On September 17, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.262 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from September 10 [4]. - The blast furnace operating rate has continued to rise. On September 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 84.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from September 12, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.4%, also a 0.2 - percentage - point increase. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 93.0% on September 19, a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from September 12 [4]. - The tire operating rate has rebounded moderately. On September 18, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 65.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, and that of passenger car semi - steel tires was 73.7%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined. On September 18, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease [4]. 3.1.2 Demand: New Home Sales in 30 Cities Exceeded the Same Period Last Year - From September 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 210,000 square meters, an 8.8% increase from the same period in August, a 13.7% increase from September last year, and a 30.6% decrease from September 2023 [4]. - The retail trend in the auto market has been stable. In September, retail sales increased by 1% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 0% year - on - year [4]. - Steel prices have been weak. On September 23, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, 1.1%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.03% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - Cement prices have weakly rebounded. On September 23, the national cement price index increased by 2.3% compared to September 16, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions rising by 3.5% and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Glass prices have fluctuated widely. On September 23, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a 4.4% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The container shipping freight index has deeply declined at a low level. On September 19, the CCFI index decreased by 0.5% compared to September 12, and the SCFI index dropped by 14.3% [4]. 3.2 Inflation: Further Drop in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Further Drop in Pork Prices - Pork prices have further declined. On September 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.6 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The agricultural product price index has moderately rebounded. On September 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.2% compared to September 16. By variety, eggs (up 4.4%) > fruits (up 1.3%) > mutton (up 0.6%) > chicken (up 0.5%) > beef (up 0.4%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (down 1.6%) [4]. 3.2.2 PPI: Weak Oscillation in Oil Prices - Oil prices have shown a weak oscillation. On September 23, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.03% and 1.7% decrease from September 16 [4]. - Copper and aluminum prices have turned down. On September 23, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.7% and 2.9% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - The decline in the domestic commodity index has widened on a month - on - month basis. On September 23, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.1% compared to September 16, and the CRB index decreased by 1.3% [4].