集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持合变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1795.1 | -1.53% | -52.5 | 24777 | | 27855 | -2582 | | | EC2604 | | 1160.2 | -0.83% | 582.4 | 7238 | | 21241 | 44 | | | EC2606 | | 1370.0 | -0.29% | 372.6 | 856 | | 2230 | - 1249 | | | EC2608 | | 1500.1 | 0.16% | 242.5 | 86 | | 1196 | -10 | | | EC2610 | | 1056.0 | 0.12% | 686.6 | 643 | | 6084 | 72 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环 ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 環 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓星 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1604.8 | -0.51% | 137.8 | 151 | | 1695 | | | | EC2602 | | 1822.9 | -0.09% | -80.3 | 24389 | | 30437 | 20 -1412 | | | EC2604 | | 1169.9 | 1 31% | 5/2.7 | 6/62 | | 21197 | -265 | | | EC2606 | | 1374.0 | 4.39% | 368.6 | 984 | | 2350 | 110 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1497.7 | 0.7/8% | 244.9 | 110 | | 1206 | 14 | | | EC2610 | | 1054.7 | 0.51% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 提涨落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：提涨落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【1】Gemini 联盟（MSK、HPL）MSK 1 月第 2 周运价涨至 2540 美元 / FEU，环比开舱涨 40 美元，对应线下装载率整体抬升；HPL-SPOT 1 月上半月价格 | | | | 从 3535 美元 / FEU 回落 500 美元至 3035 美元 / FEU，1 月下半月线上仍有回升至 3535 美元 / FEU 的涨价预期。【2】OCEAN 联盟（OOCL、CMA）OOCL | | 现货运价 | 利多 | 1 月上半月运价环比持平，维持 3180-3230 美元 / FEU ...

2025年12月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场暂无明确交易方向，盘面震荡运行，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月26日 12月22日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨7.24% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1589.20点, 较上期上涨5.2% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1144.37点, 较上期上涨7.22% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 962.10点, 较上期上涨4.1% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1254.91点, 较上期上涨2.16% 12月26日 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1656.32点、较上期上涨103.4点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1124.73点,较上期上涨0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格11690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1473.90点,较上期上涨0.2% 上海出口集 ...

02后面主要看现货走势，1月运价见项高度与时间、后续跌价等节奏很难预估，当前点位下不建议入场 04估值中性偏高，但短期存在上行风险（资金移仓、地缘反转、节前减仓、跌无可跌后的涨价函），思路以逢高空为主。 远月受地缘影响大；在复航预期、淡季的长期逻辑下，10逢高空思路为主。 欧线视്വ്വീഷ Week52: MSK开舱2300,其余公司目前沿用week51为主。中枢2500美金,折盘面约1750点 Week1: MSK开舱2500美金, OA2700-2800 (EMC部分航线2500+)，PA2800 (集量2600)，。中枢1950美金, 折盘约1950点, 消息面 Week2：MSK平开2500美金，但汉堡港2600（环比+100）。 | | EC2512 | | 1613.0 | 0.31% | -23.8 | 82 | | 1675 | -39 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | | 1824.5 | 1.38% | -235.3 | 26553 | | 31849 | -24 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,603.6 | 1,605.0 | 1,605.9 | 1,604.4 | 2.3 | 0. ...

集运星报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਾਲੇ EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1605.9 | 涨跌 -0.01 % | 基差 -16.7 | 昨日成交昼 139 | | 昨日持仓昼 1790 | 持仓变动 -100 | | | EC2602 EC2604 | | 1795.8 1165.0 | -0.60% 0.60% | -206.6 424.2 | 23706 5133 | | 34316 20990 | -688 123 | | | EC2606 | | 1319.0 | -0.95% | 270.2 | 200 | | 2145 | -4.2 | | | EC2608 | | 1481.0 | 0.07% | 108.2 | 124 | | 1193 | -6 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1051.1 | -0.09% | 538.1 | 651 | | 5664 | 61 | | | 月差 | | ...

集运早报 远月受地缘影响大，做空淡季合约比做旺季合约更安全，整体以正套思路对待，以及关注10做空机会。 欧线现货情况: 消息面 Week52: MSK开舱2300 (环比-100)，其余公司目前沿用week51为主。中枢2500美金, 折盘面约1750点。 所有船司喊涨1月舱位。 Week1: MSK开舱2500美金(环比+200)，等待其余船司开舱。 Week2: MSK平开为主,报2500美金(高箱2600)。 相关新闻 12/23 苏伊士运河管理局：法国达飞海运Jacques Saadé号和Adonis号于周二通过了运河。 (一艘为返程船, 已发过声明; 另一艘为地线, 有先 例) | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓虽 | 持仓变动 -66 | | | EC2512 | | 1606.0 | -1.53% | -16.8 | 281 | | 18 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 | | | | | | No. of the Real Pro- | | of the first of the results of | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3025.6 | 0.24% | 0.64% | 2.25% | 1.22% | 12.98 | | | 中证500期货 | 7133.2 | 0.14% | 110% | 4.88% | -2.16% | 25.30 | | | 中证1000期货 | 7197.4 | -0.09% | 0.78% | 2.44% | -2.82% | 23.06 | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102.526 | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.23% | -0.44 | | | 5年期国债期货 | 106.025 | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.26% | 0.48% | -0.48 | | | 10年期国债期货 | 108.22 | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.2 ...