Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). Among them, the PA Alliance offers $2,500, MSK offers $2,300, and the OA Alliance offers $2,700 - $2,800. From a fundamental perspective, in week 33, MSK had better cargo collection, OA was average, and PA was poor. In week 34, cargo collection significantly declined, and some shipping companies faced pressure to accept cargo. This week, the overall shipping capacity for September has been reduced due to an additional suspension of sailings by the PA Alliance in week 37. The average weekly shipping capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, the capacities are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU. In terms of strategy, the overall logic of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. This is mainly because the overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving forces are weak. Currently, the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and it is expected that there is still room for further decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear and is more affected by driving forces. However, due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2,088.2, with a change of 0.21%, a basis of 147.3, a previous trading volume of 250, a previous open interest of 2,452, and an open interest change of - 54. For other contracts (EC2510, EC2512, etc.), detailed price, change, basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change data are also provided [2]. - Regarding the month - to - month spreads, for example, the EC2508 - 2510 spread was 715.1, with comparisons to the previous one, two, and three days and percentage changes also given [2]. Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index, updated weekly on Mondays, was 2,235.48 on August 11, 2025, with a change of - 2.71% compared to the previous period. The SCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was $1,820/TEU on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 7.19% compared to the previous period. The CCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was 1,790.47 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 0.48% compared to the previous period. The NCFI index was 1,188.69 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 5.49% compared to the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). On Monday, EMC's price dropped by $200 to $2,760, MSC's price dropped by $250 to $2,590, and MSK's price rose from $2,300 to $2,490 [3]. Related News - On August 19, Middle - East media reported that Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees. Israeli media reported that Israel received Hamas' latest cease - fire proposal. Note that the XSI - C index is released with a three - day delay [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of $1.6645 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $630 million, up 79.7% [8]. - The increase in both volume and price contributed to the positive results, with a cargo volume of 1.83 million TEU, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, and an average revenue per container of $776 per TEU, a 22.77% increase [8]. - The company has a high dividend yield of 11.5%, with a dividend of HKD 1.30 per share and a payout ratio of approximately 73% [8]. - The demand for shipping services in Southeast Asia remains strong, with a 13% increase in exports from China to ASEAN countries in the first half of the year [8]. - The supply side is constrained by limited new orders for smaller container ships, with only 5.4% of the fleet having orders, and an aging fleet pushing for capacity exit [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: $2.429 billion - 2024: $3.058 billion - 2025E: $3.182 billion - 2026E: $2.962 billion - 2027E: $2.942 billion [7][12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: $531 million - 2024: $1.028 billion - 2025E: $1.130 billion - 2026E: $859 million - 2027E: $790 million [7][12] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 8.2 for 2025, which is below its historical range of 10-20 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

General Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increasing decline rate. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The 10 - contract is currently deeply discounted, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Spot market: The peak of the shipping season has passed. This week, the SCFIS further declined with a larger decline rate. Main airlines have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. The freight rate may return to the early - July level by late August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the freight rate may be even lower in the off - season. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and it is recommended to short it on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 4th to August 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with the lack of growth momentum in transport demand. Most route freight rates continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 8th was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period [9]. - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The EU is China's second - largest trading partner in the first 7 months of 2025, with a trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase year - on - year, accounting for 13% of China's total foreign trade value. In July, China's export growth to the EU reached 9.2%, which was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - The supply - demand relationship in the shipping market this week was weak, and the freight rates on European and Mediterranean routes continued to decline. On August 8th, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1961 US dollars/TEU, a 4.4% decline from the previous period; the freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2318 US dollars/TEU, a 0.6% decline [10]. - The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked an Israeli airport and "sanctioned" 64 shipping companies, which may disrupt shipping routes and affect freight rates [10]. - The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From August 4th to August 11th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 2297.86 to 2235.48, a 2.7% decline; the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased from 1130.12 to 1082.14, a 4.2% decline [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 14th shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract decreased by 2.4, a 0.18% decline, with a trading volume of 32077 and an open interest of 56698 [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Spot freight rates have likely reached their peak and are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The主力10 contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Shipping companies have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rates are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively high during the off - season. The freight rates this year may be even lower during the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. The freight rates of most routes continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - Geopolitical Tensions: The threat from the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated again, and the international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10]. - Trade Policy: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.7% from August 4th to 11th, and the SCFIS for the US West route decreased by 4.2% [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentioned the trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 13th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. for different contracts [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but does not provide detailed data analysis [12][16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows mixed signals with high power plant daily consumption but weakening demand in some sectors such as real - estate and shipping [4][21]. - Inflation presents different trends, with CPI affected by falling pork prices and PPI influenced by declining oil prices [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Power Plant Daily Consumption Reaches a New High in Recent Years 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Reaches a New High in Recent Years - On August 12, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 955,000 tons, up 7.3% from August 5. On August 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.502 million tons, up 12.3% from July 31 [11]. - The daily consumption of coastal eight - province power plants reached a five - year high due to high - temperature and humid weather [11]. 3.1.2 Production: Partial Decline in Blast Furnace Operating Rate - On August 8, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from August 1; the capacity utilization rate was 90.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from August 1. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 92.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from August 1 [14]. - There is a possibility of stricter environmental protection control in Tangshan due to air quality concerns [14]. 3.1.3 Production: Weakly Stable Tire Operating Rate - On August 7, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from August 1; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from August 1 [16]. - On August 7, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 90.7%, down 0.9 percentage points from July 31; the operating rate of downstream looms was 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from July 31 [16]. 3.1.4 Demand: Nine - Consecutive - Day Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index - From August 1 - 12, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 175,000 square meters, down 12.5% from July, 15.9% from August last year, and 32.5% from August 2023 [21]. - In August, retail sales of cars decreased by 4% year - on - year, while wholesale sales increased by 16% year - on - year [23]. - On August 12, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 0.6%, 1.0%, 2.0%, and 0.8% respectively compared to August 5. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 201,000 tons from August 1 to August 8 [30]. - On August 12, the national cement price index decreased by 0.1% compared to August 5. The average cement price has been falling both month - on - month and year - on - year [31]. - On August 12, the active glass futures contract price was 1,067 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from August 5. The decline in glass prices has slowed [36]. - On August 8, the CCFI index decreased by 2.6% and the SCFI index decreased by 3.9% compared to August 1. The container shipping market is in a wait - and - see state due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs [40]. 3.2 Inflation: Pork Prices Fall to a One - Year Low 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fall to a One - Year Low - On August 12, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from August 5. The average wholesale price of pork in August decreased by 0.9% month - on - month and 24.2% year - on - year [48]. - The agricultural product price index's upward inflection point is later than in previous years. On August 12, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% from August 5 [54]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Continue to Decline - On August 12, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 67.6 and 63.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.8% and 3.1% from August 5. The prices have been falling both month - on - month and year - on - year [55]. - On August 12, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.1% and 1.7% respectively compared to August 5 [60]. - Most industrial product prices increased in August. The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index narrowed [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the reports Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Spread Report - **Stock Index Futures** - IC期现价差最新值为 -75.56，较前一日变化 17.40，历史 1 年分位数 17.60%，全历史分位数 7.00% [1] - IM期现价差最新值为 -80.01，较前一日变化 12.73，历史 1 年分位数 90.00%，全历史分位数 18.00% [1] - IF跨期价差、IH跨期价差、IN跨期价差等各合约价差有不同程度变化及分位数情况 [1] - 跨品种比值如 IC/IF 为 1.5353，较前一日变化 0.0008，历史 1 年分位数 99.50%，全历史分位数 82.90% 等 [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - TS基差最新值为 1.1662，较前一日变化 0.0396，上市以来百分位数 9.10% [2] - TF基差最新值为 1.4695，较前一日变化 0.0230，上市以来百分位数 36.90% [2] - TL基差最新值为 2.5075，较前一日变化 0.0575，上市以来百分位数 86.00% [2] - 各品种跨期价差和跨品种价差有不同程度变化及分位数情况 [2] Precious Metals Report - **Domestic Futures** - AU2510合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 776.04 元/克，较前一日跌 3.44 元，跌幅 0.44% [5] - AG2510合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 9187 元/千克，较前一日跌 23 元，跌幅 0.25% [5] - **Foreign Futures** - COMEX黄金主力合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 3393.70，较前一日跌 64.50，跌幅 1.87% [5] - COMEX白银主力合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 37.65 美元/盎司，较前一日跌 0.86，跌幅 2.25% [5] - **Spot Prices** - 伦敦金 8 月 12 日价格 3347.64，较前一日涨 5.89，涨幅 0.18% [5] - 伦敦银 8 月 12 日价格 37.89 美元/盎司，较前一日涨 0.31，涨幅 0.81% [5] - **Basis** - 黄金 TD - 沪金主力现值 -2.87，较前值涨 0.75，历史 1 年分位数 29.70% [5] - 白银 TD - 沪银主力现值 -24，较前值涨 13，历史 1 年分位数 47.70% [5] - **Price Ratios** - COMEX 金/银现值 90.15，较前一日涨 0.35，涨幅 0.39% [5] - 上期所金/银现值 84.47，较前一日跌 0.16，跌幅 0.19% [5] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates** - 10 年期美债收益率现值 4.29，较前值涨 0.02，涨幅 0.5% [5] - 2 年期美债收益率现值 3.72，较前值跌 0.04，跌幅 1.1% [5] - 美元指数现值 98.07，较前值跌 0.43 [5] - 离岸人民币汇率现值 7.1856，较前值跌 0.0107，跌幅 0.44% [5] - **Inventory and Positions** - 上期所黄金库存现值 36045 千克，较前值无变化 [5] - 上期所白银库存现值 1151209，较前值跌 753，跌幅 0.07% [5] - COMEX 黄金库存现值 38617003，较前值无变化 [5] - COMEX 白银库存现值 507041876，较前值涨 600095，涨幅 0.12% [5] Container Shipping Report - **Spot Quotes** - MAERSK马士基 8 月 13 日上海 - 欧洲未来 6 周运价参考 2651 美元/FEU，较前一日涨 152，涨幅 6.08% [6] - CMA 达飞 8 月 13 日运价 3199，较前一日涨 9，涨幅 0.28% [6] - MSC 地中海 8 月 13 日运价 2860，较前一日涨 15，涨幅 0.53% [6] - **Container Shipping Index** - SCFIS (欧洲航线) 8 月 11 日结算价指数 2235.48，较 8 月 4 日跌 62.4，跌幅 2.71% [6] - SCFIS (美西航线) 8 月 11 日结算价指数 1082.14，较 8 月 4 日跌 48.0，跌幅 4.25% [6] - SCFI 综合指数 8 月 8 日 1489.68，较 8 月 1 日跌 61.1，跌幅 3.94% [6] - **Futures Prices and Basis** - EC2602 合约 8 月 12 日价格 1528.0，较前一日涨 10.9，涨幅 0.72% [6] - EC2604 合约 8 月 12 日价格 1350.0，较前一日涨 5.1，涨幅 0.38% [6] - 主力合约 EC2508 8 月 12 日价格 2082.0，较前一日涨 2.0，涨幅 0.10% [6] - 基差(主力) 8 月 12 日 753.4，较前一日跌 47.4，跌幅 5.92% [6] - **Fundamental Data** - 全球集装箱运力供给 8 月 13 日 3282.66 万 TEU，较前一日无变化 [6] - 上海港口准班率 7 月 32.58，较上月跌 1.99，跌幅 5.76% [6] - 上海港口挂靠情况 7 月 310.00 个，较上月跌 14.00，跌幅 4.32% [6] - 月度出口金额 7 月 3217.80 亿美元，较上月跌 34.53，跌幅 1.06% [6] Trading Calendar Report - **Overseas Data/Information** - At 0:00, EIA will release the monthly short - term energy outlook report [7] - At 4:30, the API crude oil inventory (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending August 8 in the US will be announced [7] - At 22:30, the EIA crude oil inventory (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending August 8 in the US will be announced [7] - **Domestic Data/Information** - In the evening, the weekly production and sales survey of 523 mines by the Steel Union for coking coal will be carried out [7] - At 14:30, Longzhong Information will release the commercial crude oil inventory (in 10,000 tons) at Chinese ports [7] - In the evening, the production - sales ratio of glass and the inventory at the delivery warehouse of soda ash will be concerned [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, along with related indicators such as spreads, basis, and price ratios, to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spreads**: Provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, covering both spot - futures spreads and inter - delivery spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents ratios and their changes for different cross - variety combinations, such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Shows the basis, its change, and the percentile since listing for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), as well as the internal rate of return (IRR) for TS [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Reports the inter - delivery spreads and their changes and historical percentiles for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides cross - variety spreads and their changes for different combinations of treasury bond futures [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Prices**: Presents domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: Reports the basis, its change, and historical 1 - year quantiles for different combinations of precious metal spot and futures [4]. - **Price Ratios**: Shows price ratios and their changes for different precious metal combinations [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Provides data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Reports inventory and holding data and their changes for precious metals in different markets [4]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes and their changes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Provides settlement price indexes and their changes for different container shipping routes, as well as Shanghai export container freight rates and their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Reports futures prices, their changes, and basis data for container shipping futures contracts [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [6]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, including economic sentiment indexes, inflation rates, and small - business confidence indexes [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents economic indicators and events in different domestic sectors, such as port inventories, to - port forecasts, and production - sales ratios [9].