Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is neutral. In the medium term, the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For far - month contracts, it's difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and it's hard to predict shipping companies' price - adjustment behavior. So, cautious operation is advised. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3]. - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly to short the 09 contract and long the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is already relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - peak to peak season transition point, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3]. - Before the Spring Festival holiday, frequent position - closing operations by funds are expected to cause large market fluctuations. Prudent operation is advised this week [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2604 closed at 1179.0 with a - 4.77% change, EC2605 at 1273.0, EC2606 at 1499.8 with a - 3.43% change, EC2608 at 1576.3 with a - 2.38% change, EC2610 at 1110.9 with a - 1.35% change, and EC2612 at 1380.0 with a - 3.19% change [2]. - The trading volume of EC2604 and EC2605 combined was 29560, and the open interest was 33899 with a change of 2767. The trading volume of EC2606 was 4155, and the open interest was 14740 with a change of 14. The trading volume of EC2608 was 340, and the open interest was 1416 with a change of 2. The trading volume of EC2610 was 1093, and the open interest was 8071 with a change of 178. The trading volume of EC2612 was 38, and the open interest was 127 with a change of - 11 [2]. - The month - spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 320.8 (day - on - day change: - 5.8, week - on - week change: - 34.4), and the month - spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 388.9 (day - on - day change: - 38.0, week - on - week change: 5.8) [2]. Spot Market Information - The spot price (European line) on 2026/2/9 was 1657.94 points, a - 7.49% change from the previous period [2]. - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/2/6 was 1403 dollars/TEU, a - 1.06% change from the previous period [2]. - In Week 7, MSK's opening price was 1950 dollars (a decrease of 100 dollars compared to the previous period), PA was around 2000 dollars, MSC was 2140 dollars, OA was 2300 dollars. The central price was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. In Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 dollars. In March, MSC led a price - increase notice, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL, with the European line price expected to rise to 3000 - 3100 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 10 remained at 1950 dollars [4]. Related News - On February 10, Israel's Defense Forces were formulating a plan to launch a new offensive in the Gaza Strip to disarm Hamas [5]. - On February 11, the US military in Qatar loaded missiles onto mobile platforms. Since January, as the tension between the US and Iran escalated, the US military at the Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar loaded missiles onto mobile launch platforms this month [5].

相关新闻 2/9 美国海事局告知本国船只远离伊朗水域。在霍尔木兹海峡上周发生一起事件之后，美国方面告知恩挂美国国旗的船只，在通过该航道时应尽 可能远离伊朗水域。美国运输部在一份海事通告中指出，伊朗部队在登船行动中历来会使用小型船只和直升机，并曾试图迫使商船进入伊朗领 海，最近一次发生在2026年2月3日。通告建议："在霍尔木兹海峡向东航行时，建议船只贴近阿曼领海通过。"美国海事管理局表示，船舶应在 "不影响航行安全的前提下，尽可能远离伊朗领海"。 2/8 哈马斯高级官员：只要以方持续占领 巴方就不会停止抵抗。当地时间8日，哈马斯高级官员哈立德·迈沙阿勒围绕"巴勒斯坦问题与地区格局 "发表讲话，阐述了加沙局势、巴勒斯坦政治前景及抵抗理念等多项立场。迈沙阿勒表示，经历两年的灭绝性冲突后，加沙民众的苦难仍在持续 。他呼吁在打开拉法口岸后加大救援力度，推进安置工作，并制止以色列的持续侵犯。谈及未来阶段安排，迈沙阿勒指出，当前加沙地带停火协 议正进入涉及解除武装、国际部队部署、和平机制以及以色列撤出等重大议题的第二阶段。他强调，哈马斯及巴勒斯坦各派将共同推动政治努 力，在巴勒斯坦民族愿景框架下寻求务实方案，为加沙恢复正 ...

2026/2/9 最新观点 集运欧线数据日报 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 集运欧线：上周五EC上涨2.85%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1403美元/TEU，环比下跌15美元/TEU，基本对应于 02.09-02.15期间的欧线订舱价，反映2月第二周运价的继续下行。整体来看，2月现货运价延续下行为主，春 节当周大柜均价在2050美元左右，测算下来当前市场高点和现货基本持平，贴水幅度收窄，2月现货层面可博 弈的驱动相对有限。目前统计到春节停航主要集中在第9周和第10周，3月第一周运价或较为关键，一方面是 MSC率先提涨后，其他船司的跟涨情况或很大程度上传递船司节后的挺价意愿及3月运价会否跌穿大柜2000美 元，另一方面则是光伏等产品的抢出口会否带来节后货量没那么平淡及对船司挺价信心的支撑，重点关注后续 船司涨价函的公布情况。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line will continue to decline before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February will drop to around $2080, and there is still a discount of about 200 points in the market. The real - level game space is relatively small, and the game is more concentrated on the expected level. The market is highly correlated with the commodity market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on EC. The main event at the expected level is the rush to export products such as photovoltaic before April 1st, which may bring about 2 container ships with a capacity of 18,000 - 23,000 TEU. It is difficult to cause a full - load situation in the off - season after the festival, but it may lead to an increase in the list price of shipping companies, the stabilization and even a slight increase in freight rates, bringing real - level drivers to the market. Attention should be paid to the possible falsification of expectations caused by the subsequent release of shipping companies' price increase letters [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1743 | 0.39 | 280 (183) | 1602 (-224) | 1256 | 1424 | -168 | | EC2604 | 1268.2 | 3.86 | 43994 (19795) | 34661 (1900) | 19719 | 23054 | -3335 | | EC2606 | 1568.2 | 3.56 | 5866 (2496) | 14888 (666) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2608 | 1630.5 | 3.05 | 588 (192) | 1440 (-54) | | | | | EC2610 | 1131.8 | 0.60 | 1760 (-203) | 8150 (-35) | | | | | EC2612 | 1420.2 | 0.34 | 14 (-30) | 137 (-2) | | | | | Total | - | - | 52502 | 60878 | 20975 | 24478 | -3503 | [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Increase/Decrease Rate | Previous Period | Increase/Decrease Rate | Two Periods Ago | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1792.14 | -3.6% | 1859.31 | -4.9% | 1954.19 | -0.1% | | SCFI - $/TEU | | 1418 | -4.8% | 1595 | -2.5% | 1676 | 1.7% | | Spot Freight Rate | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1551 | 0.0% | 1551 | -3.3% | 1604 | -3.3% | | (Daily) $/FEU | TCI(40GP) | 2636 | 0.0% | 2636 | -3.3% | 2725 | -2.4% | [4] Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 523.94 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 544.54 points, with a change of - 20.6 points [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core View - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line will continue to decline before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February is expected to drop to around $2080, and the market still has a discount of about 200 points. There is relatively little room for real - level gaming, and the gaming is more focused on the expectation level. The market is highly correlated with the sentiment of the commodity market, and the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on EC should be noted. The key event at the expectation level is the pre - April 1 rush to export products such as photovoltaic, which may lead to an increase in the listed price of shipping companies, stabilize or slightly increase freight rates, but it is difficult to cause full - load cabins during the post - festival off - season. Attention should be paid to the release of shipping companies' price increase notices, which may prove or disprove expectations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1737.8 | 1.15 | 612 (318) | 1883 (- 456) | 1409 | 1652 | - 243 | | EC2604 | 1237.9 | 5.22 | 29296 (- 3522) | 34229 (423) | 19239 | 21845 | - 2606 | | EC2606 | 1533.7 | 2.57 | 3147 (- 2797) | 13458 (860) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2608 | 1597.9 | 1.32 | 353 (- 778) | 1479 (29) | | | | | EC2610 | 1128.6 | 1.37 | 1355 (- 1149) | 7677 (- 207) | | | | | EC2612 | 1439 | 3.18 | 29 (- 11) | 128 (7) | | | | | Total | - | - | 34792 | 58854 | 20648 | 23497 | - 2849 | [2] 3.2 Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | MoM Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1792.14 | - 3.6% | 1859.31 | - 4.9% | 1954.19 | - 0.1% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1418 | - 4.8% | 1595 | - 2.5% | 1676 | 1.7% | | Spot Freight Rate | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1551 | - 3.3% | 1604 | - 3.3% | 1660 | 0.0% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2636 | - 3.3% | 2725 | - 2.4% | 2793 | 0.0% | [4] 3.3 Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 554.24 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 607.54 points, with a MoM change of - 53.3 points. There are also trend charts for the basis of the main container shipping European line futures contract and the spreads between different contracts [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak stage of pre - Spring Festival shipping demand has passed, and spot freight rates will enter a downward channel. After the Spring Festival, the shipping market is likely to continue its off - season performance, and the high shipping capacity in March limits the potential for rebound. However, geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots. It is recommended to short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The peak of pre - Spring Festival shipping demand has passed. Spot freight rates will decline. For example, the pre - Spring Festival quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route by Maersk was around $2,100 - 2,170 per large container, dropping to $2,000 after the festival. The OCEAN Alliance's February quote is in the range of $2,293 - 2,430, and the Premier Alliance's February quote is around $2,035, with a March opening quote of $2,535. Considering the slow post - Spring Festival resumption of work and the upcoming traditional off - season in April, it is difficult to maintain high prices. It is recommended to short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 3.2行业要闻 - From January 26th to 30th, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust. The overall demand for long - haul routes was weak, and market freight rates declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. On January 30th, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1,316.75 points, a 9.7% decrease from the previous period. - In the European route, the eurozone's January composite PMI was 51.5, lower than market expectations. Economic growth momentum showed marginal slowdown. On January 30th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1,418/TEU, a 11.1% decrease from the previous period. - In the Mediterranean route, the market situation was similar to that of the European route, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On January 30th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2,424/TEU, a 12.0% decrease from the previous period. - In the North American route, the US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014. The spot booking price continued to adjust. On January 30th, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1,867/FEU and $2,605/FEU respectively, with decreases of 10.4% and 10.0% from the previous period. - On January 14th, the US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan, focusing on demilitarization, technocratic governance, and post - war reconstruction. However, there are still issues and differences between Netanyahu and Trump regarding this plan. - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned that if Saudi Arabia takes military action, it will face a strong response. The Yemeni President's Leadership Council announced the establishment of a Supreme Military Council [9][10] 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - On February 2, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1,792.14 points, a 3.6% decrease from January 26th. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1,101.4 points, a 14.9% decrease from January 26th [12] 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures contracts on February 4th, including the pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report includes various shipping - related data charts, such as the container ship capacity in Europe, the global container ship order backlog, the Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [18][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping route is expected to continue declining before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February will drop to around $2080. There is currently a discount of about 200 - 300 points in the market. With a deep discount and strong expectations, there is relatively little room for real - level gaming, and the focus is more on the expected - level gaming [1]. - The market is highly correlated with the sentiment of the commodity market recently. Attention should be paid to the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on the EC. The main event at the expected level is the pre - April 1 export rush of products such as photovoltaic. It may bring the cargo volume equivalent to about 2 container ships of 18,000 - 23,000 TEU, which is unlikely to cause full - load cabins in the post - holiday off - season but may lead to price increases by shipping companies, price stabilization, or even a slight upward trend in freight rates. Attention should be paid to the release of shipping companies' price increase notices and the possible falsification of expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2602: The latest trading price is 1737.8 points, with a daily increase of 1.15%. The trading volume is 612 (a decrease of 318 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 1883 (a decrease of 456 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 205 [2]. - EC2604: The latest trading price is 1237.9 points, with a daily increase of 5.22%. The trading volume is 29296 (a decrease of 3522 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 34229 (an increase of 423 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1655 [2]. - EC2606: The latest trading price is 1533.7 points, with a daily increase of 2.57%. The trading volume is 3147 (a decrease of 2797 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 13458 (an increase of 860 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2608: The latest trading price is 1597.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.32%. The trading volume is 353 (a decrease of 778 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 1479 (an increase of 29 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2610: The latest trading price is 1128.6 points, with a daily increase of 1.37%. The trading volume is 1355 (a decrease of 1149 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 7677 (a decrease of 207 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2612: The latest trading price is 1439 points, with a daily increase of 3.18%. The trading volume is 29 (a decrease of 11 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 128 (an increase of 7 compared to the previous period) [2]. - Total: The total trading volume is 34792, and the total open interest on one side is 58854. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1860 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly Spot Index: The SCFIS is 1792.14 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The SCFI is $1418/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.8% [4]. - Daily Spot Freight Rates: The TCI (20GP) is $1604/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 3.3%. The TCI (40GP) is $2725/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 554.24 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 607.54 points, with a change of - 53.3 points [6].

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/3 最新观点 集运欧线：EC下跌3.06%。节前现货运价仍将延续下行为主，2月第三周大柜均价降至2080美元左右，测算下来 目前市场仍有200-300点左右的贴水，深贴水和强预期下现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多还是集中于预 期层面的博弈。近期商品市场降温，预计也会对市场情绪形成一定压制。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产 品的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于 节后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实 层面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | ...

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/2 最新观点 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌1.55%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1418美元/TEU，环比下跌177美元/TEU，对应于 02.02-02.08期间的欧线订舱价，反映2月第一周船司运价的加速下调。整体来看，节前现货运价仍将延续下行 为主，现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多可能是预期层面的博弈。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产品 的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于节 后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实层 面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20 ...