Report Information - Report Name: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Aluminum: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season [9]. - Zinc: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news [10]. - Tin: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term [11]. Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - Copper (CU2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 79,920, up 1,930 (2.47%) from June 20. The spot price was 80,160, up 1,790 (2.28%) [7]. - Aluminum (AL2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 20,580, up 115 (0.56%) from June 20. The spot price was 20,940, up 240 (1.16%) [7]. - Zinc (ZN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 22,410, up 565 (2.59%) from June 20. The spot price was 22,406, up 634 (2.91%) [7]. - Tin (SN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 268,870, up 8,310 (3.19%) from June 20. The spot price was 270,500, up 6,500 (2.46%) [7]. - Nickel (NI2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 120,480, up 2,200 (1.86%) from June 20. The spot price was 122,540, up 1,900 (1.57%) [7]. 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge. The average weekly outbound volume in the 4th week of May was 3.54 million tons/week, and in the 4th week of June, it was 3.32 million tons/week, a decrease of 220,000 tons/week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a decrease of 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year. As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to the increase in the overall supply of aluminum ingots in late June and the high price of aluminum inhibiting consumption and outbound performance, inventory accumulation occurred as expected. In early July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, inventory may continue to increase steadily. [9] - View: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season. [9] Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices were strong. The macro - market sentiment improved due to macro - easing, and the expectation of interest rate cuts also supported the upward movement of LME zinc. There was a strike by workers at a zinc smelter in Peru, and overseas inventories have been declining recently, which brought uncertainty to the supply side and drove prices up. The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. The procurement of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to the rising zinc price and weakening downstream consumption, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, a decrease of 8.58 percentage points month - on - month. Due to the rising zinc price, enterprise procurement willingness was low, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to weakening downstream consumption and high prices, the outbound volume of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of June 30, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and 1,100 tons from June 26. [10] - View: Zinc supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news. [10] Tin - Logic: Overseas supply remains tight, domestic smelting enterprise inventories are low, and the operating rate has decreased. Although future supply is expected to be loose, short - term supply tightness continues to support tin prices. Downstream demand has not changed much, but there are signs of slowing growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, and home appliances, which may put some pressure on tin. [11] - View: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term. [11] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton from June 20 to June 27, up 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 570 yuan/ton, up 30 year - on - year; the average import bauxite price index was 74.21 US dollars/ton on June 27, a decrease of 0.22 from June 20 and an increase of 2.04 year - on - year. The port arrival volume on June 27 was 4.8992 million tons, an increase of 698,300 tons from June 20 and 716,400 tons year - on - year; the port outbound volume was 3.7212 million tons, a decrease of 783,300 tons from June 20 and an increase of 13,100 tons year - on - year. [15][18] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan on June 27 was 3,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 from June 20 and 790 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,866.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 from June 20 and an increase of 47.8 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 from June 20 and 957.58 year - on - year. [21] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost on June 27 was 16,864.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.37 from June 20 and 1,096.24 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 from June 20 and 80 year - on - year. The operating rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy all had certain changes. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on June 26 was 103,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 19 and 57,200 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 119,300 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from June 19 and 67,200 tons year - on - year; the social inventory on June 30 was 468,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 295,000 tons year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on June 23 was 108,800 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from June 16 and an increase of 11,100 tons year - on - year. The SHFE inventory on June 27 was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from June 20 and 167,910 tons year - on - year; the LME inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons from June 20 and a decrease of 687,675 tons year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM A00 aluminum also had corresponding changes. [23][27][32][33] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The domestic zinc concentrate price on June 27 was 17,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 3,090 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,600 yuan/metal ton from June 20, an increase of 1,300 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 65.25 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 9.98 from June 20. The enterprise production profit was 4,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 2,548 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 988.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 558.63 from June 20 and 906.63 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang on June 27 was 80,000 physical tons, a decrease of 10,000 from June 20 and an increase of 64,000 year - on - year. [49][52] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on June 30 was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 117,300 tons year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on June 26 was 6,000 tons, unchanged from June 19 and a decrease of 7,500 tons year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on June 27 was 43,633 tons, an increase of 769 from June 20 and a decrease of 83,064 tons year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 119,225 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from June 20 and 120,375 tons year - on - year. [55] - Galvanized: The production volume on June 27 was 334,740 tons, a decrease of 4,960 from June 20 and 5,480 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.21, a decrease of 2.39 from June 20 and 0.89 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 14,525 tons, a decrease of 720 from June 20 and an increase of 1,475 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 379,500 tons, an increase of 600 from June 20 and a decrease of 47,680 year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM 0 zinc ingot also had corresponding changes. [58][61][65] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on June 27 was 2,470 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 790 tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 50.97%, an increase of 4.13 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 16.3 percentage points year - on - year. [69] - Tin Ingot: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory on June 27 was 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 from the previous period and 8,172 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 9,096 tons, an increase of 251 from the previous period and a decrease of 7,221 tons year - on - year. [72] - Tin Ore: The tin concentrate processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged from June 20, with a year - on - year decrease of 5,000. The tin ore import profit and loss level on June 26 was 10,606.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,635.29 from the previous period and 6,890.96 year - on - year. The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 5,700 from June 20 and 6,250 year - on - year. [74][75][79]

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250630申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | 铜 | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续 正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交 | 可能短期区 | | | 织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量 | 间波动 | | | 等因素变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 弱。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽 | 幅波动 | | | 幅波动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

文字早评 2025/06/30 星期一 宏观金融类 宏观消息面： 1、央行等六部门：创新适应家庭财富管理需求的金融产品，规范居民投资理财业务， 提高居民财产性收入； 2、央行等六部门发布 19 项举措：支持增强居民消费能力、支持提高消费供应 效率、加强基础金融服务； 3、以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期 12 天的冲突 于北京时间 24 日结束；4、国泰君安国际获批升级牌照，成为香港首家可提供全面虚拟资产服务的中资 券商，支持加密货币交易等业务；5、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会 降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办关于银行资本的会议；6、商务部：中美 6 月 9 日至 10 日伦敦经贸会 谈后，近日双方进一步确认了框架细节，中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请，美方将相应取 消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。7、沪深交易所：拟将主板风险警示股票涨跌幅限制比例调整为 10%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.76%/-1.00%/-1.15%/-1.92%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.26%/-2.02%/-3.96 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated June 30, 2025, covering copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Copper: The weak US dollar supports the price [2] - Zinc: It is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price [2] - Lead: There are expectations for the peak season, which supports the price [2] - Nickel: The support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity [2] - Stainless steel: The inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [2] Summary by Metal Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,920 yuan, up 1.31% during the day and unchanged at night. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 9,879 US dollars, down 0.17%. Trading volume and positions of Shanghai copper increased, while LME copper's trading volume decreased and positions increased. Inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 1,650 tons, and LME copper decreased by 1,800 tons. The LME copper premium decreased by 79.16 US dollars [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Nasdaq and S&P reached record highs due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and interest - rate cut expectations. Japan's JX Metal will cut refined copper production. China's May copper concentrate imports decreased by 17.55% month - on - month and increased by 6.61% year - on - year. Antofagasta hopes to extend the mining of Los Pelambres. Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars/ton and 0.0 US cents/pound [4][6] - **Trend Intensity**: The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,410 yuan, up 0.76%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was at 2,778.5 US dollars, up 0.31%. Trading volume of Shanghai zinc increased, and LME zinc decreased. Positions of Shanghai zinc increased, and LME zinc decreased. The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc decreased, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased. Zinc inventories of both Shanghai and LME decreased [7] - **News**: From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May alone, it decreased by 9.1% [8] - **Trend Intensity**: The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [8] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,125 yuan, down 0.58%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk was at 2,041.5 US dollars, up 0.15%. Trading volume of both Shanghai and LME lead decreased, while positions of Shanghai lead increased and LME lead decreased. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead remained unchanged, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased slightly. Lead inventories of both Shanghai and LME increased [10] - **News**: Similar to zinc, from January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May alone, it decreased by 9.1% [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [10] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,480 yuan, down 350 yuan. The stainless - steel main contract was at 12,620 yuan, down 15 yuan. Trading volumes of both decreased significantly. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 700 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased slightly. The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi increased slightly [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project entered the trial - production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July. The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban. Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park [12][13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 重要内容提示： ● 本次股权无偿划转系福建省人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会（以下简称"福建省国资委"）将其直接 持有的福建省冶金（控股）有限责任公司（以下简称"福建冶金"）80.00%股权，无偿划转至福建省工业 控股集团有限公司（以下简称"省工控集团"），从而使得省工控集团间接控制四川福蓉科技股份公司 （以下简称"公司"）65.72%的股份，成为公司的间接控股股东（以下简称"本次收购"）。 ● 根据《上市公司收购管理办法》第六十三条规定，本次收购符合免于发出要约的情形。 ● 本次收购不会导致公司控股股东和实际控制人发生变化，公司控股股东仍为福建省南平铝业股份有限 公司（以下简称"南平铝业"），实际控制人仍为福建省国资委。 证券代码：603327 证券简称：福蓉科技 公告编号：2025-026 转债代码：113672 转债简称：福蓉转债 四川福蓉科技股份公司 关于间接控股股东股权无偿划转的提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 一、本次收购基本情况 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Group Co., Ltd. has established a comprehensive tax compliance model that integrates digital empowerment and collaborative governance, positioning itself as a leader in the non-ferrous metal smelting industry with nearly 70 years of experience [1][2]. Compliance System and Culture - The company has developed a compliance system that covers the entire business process, including procurement, production, sales, and finance, recognizing tax compliance as a fundamental requirement and a reflection of social responsibility [2]. - A tiered training system has been implemented to enhance tax compliance awareness among employees, combining case studies and simulation exercises to improve practical skills [3]. Resource Utilization and Risk Management - Yuguang Group processes 20% of the nation's waste lead-acid batteries, facing compliance risks in the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy [4]. - The company has established a comprehensive management mechanism that includes pre-purchase risk screening, dynamic monitoring during transactions, and post-settlement analysis to mitigate tax risks [4][5]. Digital Empowerment in Tax Management - The company has developed a digital platform that integrates finance, tax, and supply chain management, addressing challenges posed by complex inter-regional operations and diverse accounting practices [6][7]. - A standardized tax data system has been established to ensure data accuracy and consistency, enhancing the quality of tax reporting and risk assessment [7]. Competitive Advantage through Compliance - Continuous A-level tax credit has enabled the company to secure bank loans at lower financing costs, supporting investments in green smelting technology and intelligent transformation [8].

午评：创业板指半日涨1.16% 有色金属、算力硬件股集体走强 智通财经6月27日电，市场早盘震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一。沪深两市半日成交额9913亿，较上个交易日放量138亿。盘面上热点较为杂乱，个股涨多跌 少，全市场超3600只个股上涨。从板块来看，算力硬件股再度走强，中京电子涨停。有色金属概念股展开反弹，北方铜业等涨停。大金融股一度冲高，天风 证券涨停。下跌方面，银行股展开调整，中国银行等多股跌超2%。板块方面，有色金属、铜缆高速连接、CPO、多元金融等板块涨幅居前，油气、银行、 保险、港口等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指跌0.21%，深成指涨0.85%，创业板指涨1.16%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 创业板指 | | --- | --- | --- | | -3441.30 | -10431.51 | -2138.90 | | -7.15-0.21% 7 | +88.03 +0.85% 70 - | +24.48 +1.169 | 门以 |宁 イベン光 封板率 1.04% 高开率 57% 获利率 51% 63.00% 封板 39 触及 23 昨涨停今表现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For lead, the price has been rising due to support from raw materials and reduced production in the secondary lead sector, but the downstream market has not entered the peak season yet, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, so the upward momentum of the lead price is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 17,500 yuan/ton [1] - For zinc, the short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a narrow range, but the rebound space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.44% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures rose by 0.35% compared with the previous day. The basis of Shanghai lead was - 225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between different contracts of Shanghai lead futures showed various changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract being - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 52,643 lots, an increase of 45.33%, and the open interest was 51,182 lots, an increase of 237.77%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.03, a decrease of 56.97% [1] Inventory - The LME inventory remained unchanged at 273,250 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.37% to 45,278 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared with June 19 and increasing by more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [1] Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, and the supply of recyclers is limited. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, and the finished product inventory of secondary lead is increasing [1] - The demand side is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve, which may reduce the drag on the lead price [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.27% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose by 0.88% compared with the previous day. The basis of Shanghai zinc was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [1] - The spreads between different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures and the spreads in different regions showed various changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract being 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 168,109 lots, an increase of 6.04%, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 4.45%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.24, an increase of 1.53% [1] Inventory - The LME inventory remained unchanged at 119,850 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9.71% to 6,473 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with June 19 and an increase of 0.17 tons compared with June 23 [1] Fundamental Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee has continued to rise. The raw material shortage has less impact on smelter production, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream maintains rigid demand for zinc ingots [1] - Recently, the downstream procurement sentiment has improved after the zinc price decline, and the macro - sentiment is positive. The strike at Nexa's Cajamarquilla zinc smelter has increased market concerns about future supply, pushing up the zinc price [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - shares are oscillating narrowly at a high level, with hotspots rapidly rotating. The index is approaching the predicted neutral point, and market sentiment is exuberant [14]. - The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the downward - revised Q1 GDP and increased economic downward pressure [18]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short - term, and copper prices may be supported by macro factors and show a slightly stronger oscillating trend [4][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Collins believes it may be too early to cut interest rates in July, and the baseline outlook is to resume rate cuts later this year. Gold lacks upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction [10][11]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors should be aware of correction risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued a plan to improve the social credit repair system, and the third batch of consumer trade - in funds will be released in July [13][14]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump hopes Congress can pass the tax reform bill before July 4. The US Q1 GDP was downward - revised, and the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [16][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US durable goods orders in May increased by 16.4% month - on - month, but the Q1 GDP was downward - revised. Market sentiment is high, but there are still concerns about economic data and tariff negotiations [20][21]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase the high as the US stock market has factored in a lot of optimistic expectations [22][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentine soybean sales may stagnate in July due to the expiration of the tax - cut policy. US soybean export sales are better than expected. Domestic soybean meal prices have fallen, and trading volume is average [24][26]. - Investment advice: Futures prices are expected to remain range - bound. Focus on US soybean growing area weather and Sino - US relations [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.83% from June 1 - 25. The oil market is oscillating and waiting for new data [27]. - Investment advice: The oil market is expected to continue oscillating in the short - term. It is recommended to operate within the range and not to short when the bottom support is strong [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazilian port sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from August 1, which may support sugar prices [28][31]. - Investment advice: The external sugar market is weakly consolidating. Zhengzhou sugar may have limited rebound space and may fall after the July contract is delivered [32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly this week, but rebar inventory decreased slightly. Steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short - term [33][34]. - Investment advice: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy when the price rebounds [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn and corn starch consumption in starch sugar products increased slightly this week. The opening rate of starch enterprises decreased slightly, and inventory decreased steadily. The CS09 - C09 spread decreased [36]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see as the factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Spot prices are stable with an upward trend, while futures are weak [37][39]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. Consider shorting the November and January contracts when the new - crop situation is clearer [39]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The metal market shows a cautiously bullish sentiment. India plans to take measures to deal with copper supply risks. Macro factors support copper prices in the short - term, and inventory changes should be focused on [39][43]. - Investment advice: Copper prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short - term. Adopt a bullish strategy. Wait patiently for arbitrage opportunities [43]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi plans to build a 1.4GW BC component factory in Indonesia. The polysilicon market is still under pressure, with falling prices and limited production cuts [44][45]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to focus on the PS08 - 09 positive spread opportunity due to high unilateral investment risks [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased this week. There are rumors of production cuts and restarts. The price increase may face resistance [47][48]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price of industrial silicon rebounds [48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is in a contango. A zinc smelter in Peru went on strike, and domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Zinc prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term but face an oversupply situation in the medium - term [49][51]. - Investment advice: Reduce or stop losses on previous short positions in the short - term. Look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - sentiment fades. Consider positive spread arbitrage [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng's first shipment of lithium concentrate from Mali set sail. The low price attracts some pre - season stocking, and there may be a short - term price rebound [53][54]. - Investment advice: Avoid short positions. Consider the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased slightly. The nickel market is facing an oversupply situation, and nickel prices may be affected by the price of nickel ore [55]. - Investment advice: The short - term up - and - down profit - loss ratios of nickel prices are not good. Consider short - selling when the premium of nickel ore drops significantly [56]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China decreased, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [57][58]. - Investment advice: Wait and see the demand after the increase in the release of civil LPG in East China [59]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration issued 215 million green certificates in May. The demand for green certificates is increasing, and they are evolving into financial assets [60]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [61]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable. Supply is stable, and demand is average. The downward space of the futures price is limited [62]. - Investment advice: The spot price of caustic soda is gradually weakening, but the downward space of the futures price is limited [62]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and the demand from downstream paper mills was weak [63][64]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak [64]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder was narrowly adjusted, and the futures price oscillated. The trading volume was low [65]. - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals change little in the short - term [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises decreased slightly. The domestic supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, but the export quota may affect the market [67][69]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to potential policy changes regarding export quotas [69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate of PTA was slightly adjusted. Supply decreased slightly this week and is expected to increase in the medium - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PTA price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term [72]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable with some slight decreases. The industry plans to cut production in July, which may relieve supply pressure [73][76]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin of bottle chips when the price is low [76].

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