短期镍价弱势运行 镍周报 2025/12/13 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周镍矿价格整体持稳运行。火法矿方面，尽管冶炼厂成本倒挂加剧，对矿需求显著走弱，但矿商议价能力较强，印尼与菲律宾火法 矿价格均未出现明显下跌，后市或能继续维持坚挺。湿法矿方面，市场仍相对平淡，价格持稳运行为主。 ◆ 镍铁：本周随着印尼铁厂利润触及低位，市场部分采买需求释放，镍铁价格企稳反弹。但从需求来看，目前下游钢厂整体采购意愿依旧低迷， 预计镍铁价格上行空间有限，后市或持稳运行为主。 ◆ 中间品：本周中间品成交整体一般，但在成本支撑下系数价格维持高位。供给方面，海外硫磺价格维持强势，卖方挺价意愿偏强。但当前外采 MHP经济性较低，且镍盐厂多已完成采购，整体需求转弱，多持观望态度。 ◆ 精 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，江西昇冠供应链有限责任公司成立，法定代表人为肖其红，注册资本200万人 民币，经营范围为一般项目：供应链管理服务，煤制活性炭及其他煤炭加工，非金属矿及制品销售，选 矿，有色金属合金销售，常用有色金属冶炼，钢、铁冶炼，金属矿石销售，金属材料销售，新型金属功 能材料销售，金属结构销售，铁合金冶炼（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活 动）。 ...

格隆汇12月12日丨豫光金铅(600531.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司属有色金属冶炼行业，外购原材 料的采购价格是按照产成品市场价格扣减加工费的方法确定，产品盈利水平会随金属市场价格波动及加 工费调整而相应变化。白银价格上涨对公司经营利润构成正面影响。 ...

11月12日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪锌期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报 23680.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.96%。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，下游市场逐步转向淡季，地产板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块 也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。 宏观方面，据铜冠金源期货介绍，美国上周初请失业金人数增加4.4万人至23.6万人，预估为22.0万人， 创2020年全球疫情爆发以来最大增幅，美元回落。国内中央经济工作会议保持积极，助力经济修复。 供应方面，创元期货指出，国内矿供应受北方冬季减产和进口利润影响持续紧张，表观呈现TC持续下 行和矿库存减少，冶炼利润因TC影响受损严重，呈逼近去年利润低点趋势。 展望后市，国泰君安期货表示，明年锌元素依然存在过剩预期，但国内现实端过剩年内已经兑现，弱预 期应有所修正，短期来看利空因素较为受阻。叠加TC Benchmark博弈阶段供应端扰动增强，价格存在 一定向上弹性，关注阶段性交易机会。 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 4 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 QE，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。 | | | 长线持有 | 印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割逻辑。市场押注降息持续和供需缺口 | | | 长线持有 连续 | 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。全球经济刺激、流动性维持宽松， | | ★★ | | 长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 宏微共振下，铜续创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 | | ★ | | 求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 国内经济工作会议召开，重提反内卷并强调实施更加积极的财政政策。锌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on December 12, 2025, presenting data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for multiple futures varieties across different sectors. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on December 11, 2025, was - 48.4 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend compared to previous days. The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodity Basis**: For fuel oil and INE crude oil, the basis on December 11, 2025, was - 1.64 yuan/ton and - 2.37 yuan/ton respectively. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1485 [7]. - **Chemical Commodity Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 285 yuan/ton, methanol was 51 yuan/ton, PTA was - 14 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 466 yuan/ton, V was 84 yuan/ton, and PP was 148 yuan/ton [9]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, methanol was 57 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, methanol was 54 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 5 inter - period, rubber was 20 yuan/ton, methanol was - 3 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, LLDPE - PVC was 2267 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 377 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Black Metal Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rebar was 181.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was 33.0 yuan/ton, coke was 113.5 yuan/ton, and coking coal was 135.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Black Metal Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rebar was - 10.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 20.0 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 1 inter - period, rebar was 22.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 43.5 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 5 inter - period, rebar was 32.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 23.5 yuan/ton, etc. [19]. - **Black Metal Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.05, the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.0289, etc. [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the domestic basis of copper was 170 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 80 yuan/ton, zinc was 125 yuan/ton, lead was 5 yuan/ton, nickel was 3350 yuan/ton, and tin was - 600 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market Data**: On December 11, 2025, the LME copper premium/discount was 24.76, aluminum was (26.68), etc.; the Shanghai - London ratio of copper was 7.93, aluminum was 7.65, etc.; the CIF price of copper was 94072.03, aluminum was 23768.13, etc.; the domestic spot price of copper was 92950.00, aluminum was 21910.00, etc.; the import profit/loss of copper was (1122.03), aluminum was (1858.13), etc. [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Agricultural Product Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 153 yuan/ton, soybeans No.2 was - 60.11 yuan/ton, soybean meal was 310 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 534 yuan/ton, and corn was 37 yuan/ton [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - 1 inter - period was 11 yuan/ton, 9 - 1 was 14 yuan/ton, 9 - 5 was 38 yuan/ton; for other products, similar data are provided [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.86, soybeans No.2 to corn was 1.69, etc. [41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 12.58, SSE 50 was 7.23, CSI 500 was 8.49, and CSI 1000 was 7.40 [53]. - **Stock Index Futures Inter - period Spreads**: For the CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month was - 16.0, the next - quarter minus current - quarter was - 43.6; for other indices, similar data are provided [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand relationship, market sentiment, and price trends of each product, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Highlights - **Tin**: Fed's balance - sheet expansion boosts market risk appetite, and supply - side tightness leads to a strong - biased shock in tin prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply remains unimproved, and the futures prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices of coal and coke continue to fall, and the futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and its support level is around 8000 yuan. Soybean oil follows the rise of rapeseed oil, and the basis of the May contract is supported [5]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the interest - rate cut, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling. It's recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and consider a bull - spread strategy on dips [6][7][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. It's recommended to go long on T and TL contracts on dips and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The risk of a downturn in the US labor market increases the expectation of Fed's easing, leading to a sharp rise in precious metals. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, silver to be cautious about chasing highs, and platinum to maintain a low - buying strategy [12][13][14]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. It's recommended to hold long positions in the long term and pay attention to the support level of 90000 - 91000 yuan [17][20][21]. - **Alumina**: The market is pessimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. It's recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It's recommended to buy on dips [23][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level. It's recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: A weak US dollar, inventory reduction, and TC decline boost zinc prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and a cross - market reverse - arbitrage strategy [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment and fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are expected to be strong. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [31][34][35]. - **Nickel**: After the macro - expectation is settled, the price is under pressure. It's expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 116000 - 120000 yuan [35][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 yuan [38][39][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by strong capital sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to wait and see [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It's recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to close positions [48][49][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Affected by negative feedback, the steel price is weak. It's recommended to consider a short - position strategy on the January contract's iron - ore - to - steel ratio [50][51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to go short on the 2605 contract [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fall, and the futures price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [57][58][59]. - **Coke**: The second price cut in December is expected to be implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and it's recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive - arbitrage [62][64][65]. - **Pigs**: The pickling demand provides support, but the price is affected by the epidemic. It's recommended to pay attention to the epidemic situation [66][67]. - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to the continuity of supply [68][69][70]. - **Sugar**: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [71]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuates at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to pay attention to the pressure level around 14000 yuan [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the decline is limited [75]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and soybean oil is supported. It's recommended to pay attention to the support level of palm oil at 8000 yuan [76][78]. - **Jujubes**: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to pay attention to the actual sales [79][80]. - **Apples**: The trading is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [81][82]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price is supported at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan [83][84]. - **PTA**: The December supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the first - quarter supply - demand is expected to be loose. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan, and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive - arbitrage is recommended [86][87]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [88]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin [89][90]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost decline drags down the price. It's recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is driven by the oil price and styrene. It's recommended to pay attention to domestic device changes [93]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [96]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure increases, and it's recommended to wait and see [97]. - **PP**: The supply - demand increases, and it's recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [97][98]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, and it's recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [98][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. It's recommended to hold short positions [100][101]. - **PVC**: The oversupply contradiction remains, and the price is expected to decline at the bottom [102]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is high, and the demand contracts. It's recommended to hold short positions [104]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be bearish [105]. - **Natural Rubber**: It's recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500 yuan [105][107]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR price is expected to be under pressure. It's recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 yuan [109][110].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed's rate cut and potential bond - buying, along with China's central economic work conference's loose monetary signals, create a warm sentiment in the market despite geopolitical disturbances. For copper, short - term price may rise but consumption may limit the upward trend. For aluminum, with inventory reduction and supply issues, the price is likely to rebound. For lead, low domestic inventory of deliverable products makes the price strong. For zinc, short - term supply reduction and positive market atmosphere may lead to a stronger price. For tin, supply disruptions may drive the price up after macro - risk release. For nickel, short - term price may turn to a volatile state. For lithium carbonate, due to supply - demand uncertainties, it's advisable to wait and see. For alumina, near - cost prices may lead to production cuts, and it's better to observe. For stainless steel, high inventory is a problem, and supply control may bring a turnaround. For cast aluminum alloy, the price may fluctuate within a range [4][5][6][7][10][12][14][16][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar index is weak, and China's central economic work conference raises loose expectations. LME copper 3M rose 2.37% to $11,833/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 94,080 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons to 165,850 tons. Domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term price may still rise, but the weakening consumption may make the upward movement less smooth. The reference range for SHFE copper is 92,500 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,600 - 11,950/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The central economic work conference's policy signals made non - ferrous metals stronger. LME aluminum rose 1.14% to $2,895/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,175 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories decreased, and the market transaction was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased, and the cash/3M remained at a discount [6] - **Strategy**: With the domestic inventory decline, high US spot premium, and low LME inventory, along with supply disruptions and stable downstream production, the aluminum price is likely to rebound. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,920/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE lead index rose 0.21% to 17,157 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,989/ton. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 2.29 tons [9] - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased. Both primary and secondary lead production rates are high, and downstream battery production also increased. With low domestic deliverable inventory, the lead price shows a strong trend in the short - term [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.39% to 23,004 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,087.5/ton. The zinc social inventory decreased by 0.78 tons to 12.82 tons. The LME zinc inventory slowly increased, and the 3 - 15 spread was still high [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore and zinc ingot supply have decreased. With the positive market atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may follow copper and aluminum to rise in the short - term after breaking through the pressure level [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, SHFE tin fell 0.63% to 320,600 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons. Although the supply shortage has slightly eased, conflicts in Congo (DRC) and Nigeria still cause concerns. The traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors provide support. The high price makes the spot trading cold [13] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, supply disruptions are the key factors for the price. After the macro - risk is released, the tin price may strengthen. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for domestic contracts is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 42,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE nickel fell 0.65% to 115,400 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was also stable. The nickel iron price rebounded [15] - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term price may turn to a volatile state with the stable nickel iron price and warm macro - atmosphere. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 2.61%, and the LC2605 contract rose 3.02% [19] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation has not changed, and the inventory decline has narrowed slightly. There are uncertainties in supply release and demand. With high positions, the price may fluctuate greatly. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the LC2605 contract is 95,800 - 103,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.28% to 2,534 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas price also dropped. The futures inventory increased [22] - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the ore shipment is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The alumina production capacity is still in surplus, but with the price close to the cost line, production cuts may increase. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the domestic contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel contract fell 0.44% to 12,500 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: High inventory is still a problem. If the supply is effectively controlled and downstream restocking demand is released, the market may turn around [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract rose 0.17% to 20,945 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the inventory decreased [28] - **Strategy**: The cost is firm, and supply disruptions support the price, but the fluctuating demand and delivery pressure limit the upward movement. The price may fluctuate within a range [29]

日度报告——综合晨报 议召开 美国首申人数超预期，中国中央经济工作会 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-12 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上周首申人数增 4.4 万人，创 2020 年来最大增幅 美国首申数据明显超预期，劳动力市场走弱，美元指数继续下 行。 宏观策略（股指期货） 世行上调 2025 年中国经济增长预测 综 A 股市场震荡下挫，以地产、零售等题材领跌。从中央经济工作 会议看，政策基调稳健，增量政策或偏少，对应明年盈利修复 的弹性也不宜高估。那么股市面临一定的挑战。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具 报 经济工作会议货币政策的表述超市场预期，债市也出现了快速 走强。不过按照此前经验，利多落地后，债市进一步上涨的空 间应较为有限，其后将逐渐转入偏强震荡的行情中。 农产品（棉花） 新疆：棉企籽棉零星收购 现货点价销售积极 郑棉 12 月 11 日再度拉涨，盘面近期表现坚挺，主要原因是现货 基差高企&产业大户接货的意愿较强，同时下游刚需用棉量较 大。 黑色金属（铁矿石） 预计 2026 年全国新建商品房销售面积同比降 6.2% 铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central economic work conference has a positive tone, and the improvement of demand expectations may boost basic metals. In the short - to - medium term, positive macro - expectations and supply disruption concerns continue to support prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin remain, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - For different metals, the report gives specific views: copper prices will oscillate and rise; alumina prices will continue to be under pressure; aluminum prices will oscillate and rise; alloy prices will oscillate at a high level; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will stabilize and rebound; nickel prices will run weakly; stainless - steel prices will correct; tin prices will oscillate and strengthen [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: The Fed continues to cut interest rates, and copper prices oscillate and rise, showing a trend of being oscillatory and strong in the medium - term [6][7][8]. - **Analysis**: The Fed cuts interest rates and restarts balance - sheet expansion, providing liquidity support. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT will reduce the production capacity of mine copper by more than 10% in 2026. The terminal demand is weak, but the spot is at a premium, and the overseas squeeze on positions boosts prices [6][7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with an expected oscillatory trend [8][9]. - **Analysis**: High - cost production capacity fluctuates, and there are short - term disturbances, but the supply contraction is insufficient, with strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak, and the futures - spot price difference is large. Although the valuation is low, the price may still be under pressure [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices oscillate and rise, showing an oscillatory and strong trend in the short - term and a potential upward shift of the price center in the medium - term [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The macro - environment is complex, with fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations. The domestic production capacity is high, while overseas supply may tighten in the long - term. The terminal demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and the market oscillates at a high level, with an oscillatory and strong trend in the short - and medium - term [14][15]. - **Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply side has production reduction risks, while the demand side shows marginal improvement, and the inventory shows a mixed trend [14][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: Social inventory has decreased, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level, with an overall oscillatory trend [16][18][19]. - **Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance and weak economic data increase the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory may not accumulate, but there is still a potential for price decline in the long - term [18][19]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices stabilize and rebound, showing an oscillatory trend [20][21]. - **Analysis**: The spot premium is stable, and the supply of lead ingots is tight in some regions. The demand from the battery industry is relatively good, and the inventory is at a low level [20][21]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: LME inventory remains at a high level, and nickel prices run weakly, showing an oscillatory trend [21][23]. - **Analysis**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. The overall supply of nickel resources is loose, and the inventory is high, but there are potential supply - side policy risks [21][23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Weak nickel prices drive the stainless - steel market to correct, with an expected range - bound oscillation [24]. - **Analysis**: The cost support of nickel iron is strengthening, but the stainless - steel production is expected to decline in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, but the profit compression and cost support limit the price decline [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: Supply concerns remain unresolved, and tin prices oscillate and strengthen [25][27]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is tight, with slow复产 in mines, restricted exports from Indonesia, and limited production in Africa. The demand is growing in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries, which will push up the price [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (non - ferrous metals index) are presented, with specific values and changes on December 11, 2025 [154][156].