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7月份制造业PMI回落 新动能持续增长——经济总体产出保持扩张
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-07-31 21:42
Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points but still indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first time since March that it exceeded the critical point, while the factory price index was at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points [2] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant rebounds in their purchasing and factory price indices, indicating improved market prices [2] Business Activity by Enterprise Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, while small enterprises saw a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather, reflected in a business activity index of 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [4] - Sectors related to travel and consumption, such as railway and air transport, maintained high business activity indices above 60%, indicating robust growth [4] Future Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, the overall economic foundation remains solid, with large enterprises continuing to play a stabilizing role [3] - The manufacturing sector's production activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating optimism for future performance [3] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintain stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, suggesting continued growth in investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [4]
7月份制造业PMI为49.3% 我国经济总体产出保持扩张
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-07-31 16:12
Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]
“十五五”启幕,蓝图绘新篇——7月中央政治局会议学习理解(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-07-31 16:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July Central Political Bureau meeting, emphasizing the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic conditions. The meeting sets the stage for the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for high-quality economic development and structural reforms [2][3][4]. Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, surpassing the annual target. This performance was achieved despite external challenges, showcasing the resilience of the Chinese economy [2][3][4]. - The meeting removed the phrase "external shocks are increasing" from its risk assessment but emphasized the need for vigilance and bottom-line thinking regarding potential challenges ahead [2][3][4]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for sustained and timely macro policy efforts, particularly focusing on major economic provinces to drive national growth. It stressed the need to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and enhance their effectiveness [4][17]. - Fiscal policy will continue to prioritize the rapid issuance and utilization of government bonds, with a noted progress of 50.6% in new special bond issuance as of July 13, which is lower than the same period in previous years, indicating potential for further policy support [4][17]. - The monetary policy discussion did not mention interest rate cuts but introduced measures to lower overall financing costs, indicating a shift towards improving the transmission of monetary policy [4][17]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting emphasized the importance of service consumption and the cultivation of industrial competitiveness, linking consumption policies with social welfare initiatives to enhance consumer demand [5][18]. - It reiterated the need to combat "involution" in the economy, focusing on orderly competition among enterprises and the governance of capacity in key industries, while promoting the development of internationally competitive emerging industries [5][18][19]. Investment Quality and Risk Management - There is a heightened focus on "high-quality" investments and a strict prohibition on the creation of new hidden debts, reflecting a commitment to risk prevention in key sectors [7][19]. - The meeting underscored the importance of high-quality urban renewal and the effective promotion of major construction projects while managing the risks associated with local financing platforms [7][19].
7月PMI,淡季偏淡
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-31 14:53
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - July Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.3%, below the expected 49.7% and previous value of 49.7%[1] - New orders in manufacturing decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, while production fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%[1] - Manufacturing new export orders dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 47.1%, slightly below the first half average of 47.3%[2] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - Raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, while factory prices rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%[3] - Procurement volume declined by 0.7 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating insufficient demand constraints[3] - Finished goods inventory decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.4%, reflecting a preference for reducing stock rather than increasing production[3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month[1] - Construction activity index and new orders both fell by 2.2 percentage points, while service sector indices saw minor declines[4] - Employment indices in construction and manufacturing improved by 1.0 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a slight recovery in job markets[4] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Market Implications - Overall economic slowdown in July attributed to adverse weather conditions and previous export surges[5] - The composite PMI for July is at 50.2%, matching levels from April and July of the previous year[6] - Market risk appetite may be affected by the July PMI results, leading to potential volatility in stock markets[5]
澳门第二季GDP1003亿澳门元,恢复正增长
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-07-31 14:09
2025年第二季澳门生产总值修订后的详细结果将于2025年8月15日公布。 采写:南都N视频记者李敏谊 7月31日,南都N视频记者从澳门统计暨普查局获悉,受惠于一系列吸引旅客的措施,今年第二季度访 澳旅客录得近两成的升幅,带动服务出口明显回升,整体服务出口按年上升5.8%,加上当地私人消费 继续保持稳定,令澳门经济恢复正增长。2025年澳门第二季生产总值的初步数值为1003.8亿澳门元,按 年实质增长5.1%,整体经济规模恢复至2019年同期的88.8%。 今年上半年本地生产总值的初步数值为2001.4亿澳门元,按年实质上升1.8%,经济总量恢复至2019年同 期的87.0%。 ...
制造业PMI低于荣枯线 国常会部署贴息政策促消费
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 13:51
Economic Overview - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to enhance macroeconomic policy effectiveness and stimulate internal economic growth [1] - The State Council reiterated the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month below the growth threshold [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [6] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index increased to 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by seasonal weather conditions, while infrastructure-related activities continued to show robust growth [10] Consumer Behavior - The summer consumption effect began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer consumption has not yet significantly impacted these areas [11][12] Policy Implications - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of releasing internal demand potential and implementing consumption-boosting actions [12] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [12]
珠海上半年GDP同比增长3.8%,外贸规模创历史同期新高
南方财经记者冯玉怡 珠海报道 外贸方面,上半年珠海外贸进出口总额1682.65亿元,同比增长8.9%,规模创历史同期新高。其中,出 口总额1154.17亿元,增长4.7%;进口总额528.48亿元,增长19.5%。 7月31日,珠海市统计局发布上半年经济"成绩单"。上半年,珠海地区生产总值2243.65亿元,同比增长 3.8%。其中,第一产业增加值30.04亿元,增长3.7%;第二产业增加值917.55亿元,下降1.3%;第三产 业增加值1296.06亿元,增长7.4%。 投资方面,上半年珠海固定资产投资同比下降38.4%,降幅较一季度收窄2.1个百分点。分投资领域看, 工业投资下降28.0%,降幅收窄18.6个百分点。其中,工业技改投资增长10.3%,增速提升4.7个百分 点。基础设施投资下降40.6%,降幅收窄5.4个百分点。房地产开发投资同比下降42.1%。 上半年,珠海工业生产稳中有进,重点产业增势较好。全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.5%,增速 较一季度提升0.7个百分点。全市"4+3"产业增加值增长7.2%。其中,高端装备制造、集成电路、新能 源、新一代信息技术分别增长17.9%、16.4%、1 ...
国常会最新部署!
证券时报· 2025-07-31 12:35
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese government's commitment to advancing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative and implementing personal consumption and service industry loan interest subsidy policies to stimulate economic growth and enhance market vitality [1][3][5]. Group 1: "Artificial Intelligence +" Initiative - The government aims to deeply implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, promoting large-scale commercial applications of AI across various sectors, fostering a virtuous cycle of innovation and application [2][5]. - The initiative includes optimizing the AI innovation ecosystem by strengthening computing power, algorithms, and data supply, increasing policy support, and enhancing talent development [5]. - The AI industry in China is projected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% for several consecutive years [6]. Group 2: Loan Interest Subsidy Policies - The implementation of personal consumption loan and service industry loan interest subsidy policies is expected to lower credit costs for residents and financing costs for service industry entities, thereby stimulating consumption potential and enhancing market vitality [3][9]. - The policies are designed to leverage fiscal and financial collaboration to improve the efficiency of fund utilization and ensure that financial resources are effectively allocated [9][12]. - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that these subsidy policies will have a leveraging effect on consumption, enhancing demand for end products and improving public service supply capabilities [12].
GDP增速全市第一!广州白云上半年经济成绩单出炉
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-07-31 12:23
Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, Baiyun District's GDP reached 153.28 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, ranking first in the city [1] - The primary industry added value was 1.53 billion, growing by 4.8%; the secondary industry added value was 29.44 billion, growing by 3.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 122.31 billion, growing by 5.7% [1] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Baiyun District was 3.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] - Notably, the vegetable and edible fungus sector saw a production of 226,000 tons and an output value of 1.77 billion, both increasing by 6.6% year-on-year [1] Industrial Sector - The total industrial output value in the district grew by 2.9% year-on-year, with traditional industries like furniture manufacturing and electrical machinery showing significant growth of 8.1% and 19.3%, respectively [1] - New production capacities in industrial robots, solar cells, and medical instruments saw remarkable increases of 91.6%, 72.4%, and 33% in production [1] Aviation Industry - Baiyun Airport's passenger and cargo throughput reached 4.09 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [2] - The air cargo turnover increased by 7.0% year-on-year, indicating a steady growth trend in the aviation sector [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Baiyun District amounted to 58.54 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - Significant growth was observed in essential goods, with daily necessities, hardware, and pharmaceuticals increasing by 33.1%, 10.0%, and 41.8%, respectively [2] Service Industry - From January to May, the revenue of the profitable service industry in Baiyun District grew by 19.0% year-on-year, ranking second in the city [2] - The advertising and application software development sectors showed exceptional growth, with revenues increasing by 90.3% and 44.3%, respectively [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Baiyun District exceeded 64 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [3] - Investment in industrial projects grew significantly, reaching 24.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [3] - Industrial investment completed 8.82 billion, growing by 25.7%, while manufacturing investment reached 6.23 billion, increasing by 11.8% [3]
万业企业:股东国盛资本减持186.12万股,减持计划实施完毕
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-31 12:16
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 万业企业(SH 600641,收盘价:14.62元)7月31日晚间发布公告称,本次减持股份计划实施前,公司 股东上海国盛资本管理有限公司-上海国盛海通股权投资基金合伙企业(有限合伙)(以下简称"国盛 资本")持有公司股份46,531,500股,占公司总股本比例为5.00%。上述股份通过协议转让取得,均为无 限售条件流通股。 前期,公司披露了《股东集中竞价减持股份计划公告》。截至本公告披露日,国盛资本通过集中竞价交 易方式合计减持公司股份1,861,200股,合计减持比例为0.20%,本次减持计划已实施完毕。 2024年1至12月份,万业企业的营业收入构成为:房地产业占比48.34%,制造业占比41.44%,服务业占 比8.72%,其他业务占比1.49%。 ...