2025 年 07 月 14 日 模型提示行业交易拥挤度上升，市 场情绪逐渐修复 ——量化择时周报 20250711 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 量 化 策 略 相关研究 - ⚫ 市场情绪得到修复：市场情绪指标数值为-0.25，较上周五的-0.9 有所上升，代表市场情 绪进一步修复，观点偏多。从所有分项指标分数之和的变化来看，本周分数呈现上升趋势。 ⚫ 行业交易拥挤度上升，PCR 结合 VIX 指标同步转正反映市场情绪修复：行业间交易波动 率上升代表当前资金活跃度回暖，资金观点分歧减弱、短期情绪不确定性下降；行业涨跌 趋势指标继续提示行业涨跌趋势不强，指标位置大幅提升但是上攻力量略显不足，因此短 期内可能迎来进一步调整。另外 PCR ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the weak fundamental expectation remains unchanged. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies, and consider short positions in the 14,000 - 14,500 range. Pay attention to raw material supply in each production area and US tariff changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, with a 0.70% increase. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) rose by 145 to - 10, a 93.55% increase. Other raw material prices showed various changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 860, a 1.15% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 to - 40, a 27.27% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25 to 900, a - 2.70% decrease [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a 157.52% increase. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production decreased slightly, while the tire export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 14,802 tons to 632,090 tons, a 2.40% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7,258 tons to 36,994 tons, a 24.41% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View For soda ash, although the futures price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and spot trading improved, the supply - demand situation remains in an obvious surplus, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, although the futures price is strong due to macro - sentiment, the demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China showed small changes. The prices of glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 increased slightly [4]. - **Soda - ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable. The prices of soda ash futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly [4]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash remained unchanged, and the weekly production was stable. The daily melting volume of float glass increased slightly, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory Data**: The glass market inventory decreased by 198,300 square meters to 67.102 million square meters, a - 2.87% decrease. The soda - ash factory inventory and delivery - warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different trends [4]. Group 3: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the fundamental aspect, the demand for logs enters the off - season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Be vigilant against emotional price increases [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of some spot logs decreased, while the outer - market quotation increased [5]. - **Supply**: The port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a - 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 130,000 cubic meters to 3.23 million cubic meters, a - 3.87% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume increased by 12,000 cubic meters to 669,000 cubic meters [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of industrial silicon increased due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, with less impact from supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase further. Technically, it shows a strong - side fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong, but short - selling can be considered if large - scale enterprises resume production or the price of polysilicon drops. Risk management is recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China and Xinjiang increased. The basis of different grades decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a 6.50% increase. The production of related downstream products also changed [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 26,200 tons to 123,900 tons, a - 17.46% decrease. The social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of polysilicon increased rapidly under the expectation of policies, but the market is cautious about the new price. There is a large discount in the futures market, and there is room for price repair. The market may fluctuate greatly next week. Attention should be paid to the price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon and risk management [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, while the basis of some types increased slightly [7]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The prices of polysilicon futures contracts and the spreads between different contracts showed various changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. The monthly production of polysilicon increased, while the import and export volumes changed [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The silicon - wafer inventory decreased [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with rapid growth in the semiconductor materials business [7] - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 1.727 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 14% [7] - The growth in revenue is attributed to increased production capacity and optimization of costs in polishing pads, as well as significant growth in the semiconductor materials segment [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 4.046 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 687 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32% [6] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 48.8% in Q1 2025 to 49.0% in 2025E [6] Business Performance - The semiconductor materials and integrated circuit design business is expected to generate 945 million yuan in revenue in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 49% [7] - The CMP polishing pads segment is projected to see a revenue increase of 59% in H1 2025, with a significant order breakthrough in copper polishing liquids [7] - The display materials segment is also experiencing rapid growth, with a 62% increase in revenue in H1 2025 due to improved capacity utilization among downstream customers [7]

证券代码：002171 证券简称：楚江新材 债券代码：128109 债券简称：楚江转债 安徽楚江科技新材料股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-012 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 ☑其他 （电话会） | | 参与单位名称及 | 本次电话会由中信证券组织，具体参会人员名单详见附件 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 7 月 11 日 | | 地点 | 安徽楚江科技新材料股份有限公司 | | 上市公司接待人 | 楚江新材董事会秘书：姜鸿文 | | 员姓名 | 楚江新材证券事务代表：李旭 | | 投资者关系活动 | 2025 年上半年，公司预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净 | | | 利润 2.4 亿元至 2.9 亿元，同比增长 42.35%-72%；扣除非经 | | | 常性损益净利润2亿元至2.5亿元，同比增长75.43%-119.29%。 | | | 1、天鸟高新生产的产品有哪些？ | | | 回复：子公司天鸟高新作为国内碳 ...

但河北省外主营业务收入占比最高的华东地区客户毛利率不足5%，对此，交易所在第二轮问询中追问国亮新材在河北省内的竞争优势、华东地区毛利率明 显偏低的合理性以及持续拓展其他区域市场客户的能力等。 对此，国亮新材回复指出，公司在河北省内具有明显的竞争优势，但在耐火材料行业充分竞争的市场环境下，其市场份额存在被行业龙头企业抢占的风险。 新开拓市场毛利率偏低系区域经营策略所致，公司具备持续拓展其他区域市场客户的能力，但也存在业务拓展不及预期的风险。 作者：郑勇康 编辑：张佳茗 去年6月，河北国亮新材料股份有限公司（下称"国亮新材"）北交所IPO申请获受理。国亮新材是一家从事高温工业用耐火材料整体解决方案的企业，其为客 户提供耐火材料整体承包服务及耐火材料产品。 值得注意的是，交易所连续两轮都关注到了国亮新材的业绩和收入确认的合规性等问题。 行业竞争激烈、产能过剩 据招股书，国内有2,000多家耐火材料企业，生产规模相对分散，行业集中度较低，市场竞争较为激烈。国亮新材有将近80%的主营业务收入来自于河北省 内，但其在华北地区的市场占有率却不足5%。 首轮问询回复中，国亮新材在对"开拓河北省外或唐山市外的策略和具体措施"回 ...

据了解，西安高新区是国务院首批批准成立的国家级高新区之一，重点发展光电子信息、智能制造、生 物医药、汽车、新材料新能源等创新产业（300832）。西安高新区内科技企业在不断深耕国内市场的同 时，"出海"需求也在不断增强。合作备忘录的签署，让现场70余家西安高新区企业看到了更多发展机 遇。 有参会企业表示，近年来，香港资本市场针对科技企业做了许多改革。西安高新区内企业既可以充分利 用香港资本市场获取融资，也可以借助在港上市拓展国际投资的资源，同时助力海外业务拓展。还有企 业表示，香港的国际化平台，能够帮助中小企业在发展初期就开启全球发展模式，积极参与到国际竞争 中，从而挖掘更多发展机遇。 "作为连接内地与国际市场的重要桥梁，香港一直致力于为内地创新企业提供全方位支持。"香港投资推 广署投资推广总监干杉立表示，希望进一步发挥两地互补优势，协助西安高新区更多优质企业借港出 海，共同开拓创新合作新机遇。 中化新网讯 7月8日，在西安举行的香港优势助力陕西科技企业走出去交流会上，香港特别行政区投资 推广署与西安高新区管委会签署合作备忘录，携手支持科技企业借港出海，积极拓展国际市场。 根据合作备忘录，西安高新区将鼓励区内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point level, indicating potential upward momentum in the market [1][10]. Market Performance - As of the midday close on July 14, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3525.4 points, up 0.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10671.48 points, down 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index at 2190.82 points, down 0.74% [1][2]. - The overall market saw over 2600 stocks rising, indicating a relatively balanced performance between gainers and losers [2]. Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector led the gains, followed by precious metals, small home appliances, humanoid robots, and the power sector [4]. - Conversely, the diversified financial sector was sluggish, with cultural media and real estate sectors showing weakness [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in machinery, electrical equipment, and automotive sectors, while outflows were noted in computing, non-bank financials, and media sectors [6]. - Specific stocks such as Siyuan Electric, Greenland Holdings, and Xiangyang Bearing saw net inflows of 8.63 billion, 7.38 billion, and 7.26 billion respectively [7]. - On the outflow side, stocks like Dazhihui, Dongfang Caifu, and BYD faced sell-offs amounting to 11.1 billion, 9.1 billion, and 7.77 billion respectively [8]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the Shanghai Composite Index's breakout above 3500 points could open further upward space, with long-term funds continuously buying into bank-led dividend sectors [10]. - The market is advised to focus on sector rotation opportunities, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals, computing power chains, PCB, and solid-state batteries [10]. - Technical analysis highlights the importance of the 3490-point support level for the Shanghai Composite Index, with potential buying opportunities if the index dips [10].

2025 年 7 月 14 日 行业研究 6 月电解铝产能利用率续创 2012 年有统计数据以来新高水平 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.7.7-7.13） 要点 流动性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点。（1）BCI 中小 企业融资环境指数 2025 年 6 月值为 49.12，环比上月+0.07%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点，环比+0.9 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格环比上 周+0.53%。 基建和地产链条：6 月下旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比-0.88%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+1.89%、水泥价格指数-1.57%、橡胶+2.15%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤+0.93%、铁矿+2.47%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别 -0.39pct 、 -3.60pct 、 +3.5pct 、 +0.81pct；（3）今年 6 月下旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量为 212.90 万吨。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本 ...

早盘，A股市场机器人及PEEK材料概念股表现抢眼，多只个股强势涨停。中欣氟材、兄弟科技涨停， 新瀚新材涨超10%，富恒新材、中研股份等跟涨；机器人板块中，中大力德涨停，安乃达、长盛轴承等 涨超5%。 宇树科技以四足机器狗起家，2023年发布首款通用人形机器人H1，该产品曾亮相2025年央视春晚。公 司2024年机器狗销量高达2.37万台，占据全球市场份额69.75%。宇树科技近期完成C轮融资7亿元，由中 国移动旗下基金、腾讯联合领投，投后估值达120亿元，市场传闻其正在筹备科创板IPO。 2025年被业内公认为人形机器人规模化量产元年。除中国移动的大额订单外，近期市场已出现多笔重要 采购：同济大学采购10台宇树人形机器人，总价825万元。优必选与东风柳汽签订20台大型双足仿人机 器人合同。均普智能子公司签订人形机器人销售框架合同，金额约2825万元。 TrendForce集邦咨询数据显示，中国已有11家主流人形机器人本体厂商于2024年启动量产计划，预计 2025年该领域本体产值将超过45亿元。 PEEK材料革命：轻量化技术打开成长天花板 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- ...

"目前我们已签约的项目推进得如何？主动和我们接洽的项目进展到哪一步？"7月11日上午，在新 材料产业中试基地服务专班每周例行召开的推进会上，专班负责人师晓倩问得仔细。从最初出门招商找 项目，到如今项目主动找上门，新材料产业中试基地服务专班正经历"幸福的烦恼"。 在化工新材料领域，中试是从"研"到"产"之间极为关键的一环，高校、科研院所、企业的研发成果 要想实现产业化，需要经过中试环节的验证，只有中试成功，才能确保生产的安全性和产品的稳定性。 作为我市唯一发展化工新材料产业的园区，南京江北新材料科技园正以"研产贯通"行动为抓手，推 动传统石化产业向高端化、智能化、绿色化升级。建设新材料产业中试基地，正是园区以科技创新推动 产业创新的一次探索实践。 "中试基地自去年立项以来，就坚持建设与招商'同步走'的战略。"师晓倩介绍，园区举办各种中试 基地推介会、项目对接会、路演会等，储备中试项目60余个，"确保中试基地建成即投运，开园即满 园，全力打造化工园中试基地标杆。" 据了解，目前还有一些项目和园区积极洽谈，希望能签约入驻，其中还有不少高校院所。园区组建 了中试基地专家委员会，涵盖技术、安全环保、市场金融等多个领域专 ...