平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 宏 2026 年 2 月 8 日 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 1 周） 二手房挂牌价恢复 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周春节临近，工业生产环比大多季节性走弱，工业品 价格指数环比回落。不过，年初以来二手房挂牌价逐步止跌，外贸港口吞 吐量及韩国、越南 1 月出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需支撑增强。 1. 工业：本周生产环比季节性走弱。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量提 升，部分化工品开工率环比提升；水泥熟料产能利用率、浮法玻璃开工率、 石油沥青开工率、钢铁建材表观需求环比回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织 聚酯开工率、织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工率、全钢胎开工 率环比回落。 2. 地产：二手房挂牌价抬升。1）销售方面，本周（截至 2 月 6 日）30 大中 城市新房销售面积同比快速增长，去年同期基数受春节假期拖累；年初以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations, as the underlying trends indicate a shift from virtual to real economies in Europe and the US, alongside the disruptive innovation brought by AI [2] - The urgency for strategic security investments and new infrastructure in the US reflects a growing competition, balancing short-term shareholder interests with long-term strategic value [2] - China's capital market has already completed the pricing adjustment from virtual to real, currently undergoing a verification and pricing process for quality and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - A potential "favorable timing and conditions" for a new upward cycle in the A-share market is anticipated in the coming months, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] - Historical data shows that February, especially around the Spring Festival, is a period of strong market activity, with small-cap stocks likely to outperform [3] - The recent market pullback is seen as an opportunity to regain confidence and prepare for the upcoming upward cycle, especially around the 4000-point level [3] Group 3 - The global market is quickly pricing in the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while the Chinese government is shifting its focus towards domestic demand, which is expected to boost economic prospects [5] - The recent emphasis from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on stabilizing the capital market is expected to support a gradual recovery in the A-share market [5] - Recommendations include focusing on emerging technologies and sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and traditional manufacturing [5] Group 4 - The recent global asset adjustment is more about digesting emotions rather than fundamental changes, with a favorable environment for market recovery expected post-Spring Festival [6] - Key sectors to focus on include technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains, with a particular emphasis on AI hardware and high-end manufacturing [6] - The upcoming period is expected to see increased industry catalysts and a rise in risk appetite, creating opportunities for thematic investments [6] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is seen as having value for investment, with expectations of a rebound once the liquidity shock subsides [7] - The market is expected to experience a stronger performance post-Spring Festival, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] - The rotation of investment focus is anticipated to accelerate in February, particularly towards sectors like oil, food and beverage, and construction materials [7] Group 6 - The global risk-off mode has led to a reevaluation of assets, with a focus on physical assets and a recovery in manufacturing trends [8] - Recommendations include investing in commodities like oil, copper, and lithium, as well as sectors with confirmed bottoming out in the Chinese manufacturing industry [8] - The return of capital and easing of pressure from quantitative tightening are expected to support a recovery in consumer sectors [8] Group 7 - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily driven by internal factors, with external shocks having limited impact on the fundamental industry landscape [9][10] - The market sentiment has been sufficiently released, and a continuation of the spring market rally is anticipated post-Spring Festival [10] - Key sectors to watch include AI computing, chemical industries, and power equipment, with potential catalysts from local policy signals [10] Group 8 - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a shift towards value and consumer sectors as high-valuation tech stocks face selling pressure [12] - Defensive sectors like banking and food and beverage are likely to attract investment, while growth sectors may regain focus post-Spring Festival [12] - The upcoming policy window and recovery in risk appetite are expected to shift market attention back to growth sectors with clear performance catalysts [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector remains at a high level of prosperity, with oil tanker market conditions particularly strong due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions impacting oil supply [6][17] - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stocks that provide stable dividend assets, with a recommendation for Wanhua Express [18] - The aviation industry shows an upward trend in fundamentals for 2026, with significant increases in passenger volume and ticket prices during the Spring Festival [21][34] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a return to mid-to-high single-digit growth rates in 2026, with a focus on valuation and competitive positioning [20][21] Shipping Sector Summary - Oil tanker market conditions are buoyed by geopolitical risks, with VLCC rates at $124,000/day, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [13][55] - The dry bulk market has seen fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1923 points, down 10.5% week-on-week [53] - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][17] Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data shows significant growth in freight traffic, with road truck traffic at 56.83 million vehicles, a 506.1% year-on-year increase [18][59] - Port throughput reached 281.597 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [18][59] - The report suggests focusing on stable cash flow assets in the port sector, highlighting their current undervaluation [18] Aviation Sector Summary - During the Spring Festival, passenger traffic increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with domestic ticket prices rising by 6.1% [21][34] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of profit elasticity for the aviation industry due to improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices [34] - The report emphasizes monitoring Spring Festival data and its impact on market sentiment [34] Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.6% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with a slowdown expected in 2026 [20][21] - The report highlights the competitive landscape and the potential for valuation recovery in the sector [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [21]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.11%, the ChiNext down 3.28%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 4.31% [1] - Citic Securities highlights a conflict between short-term interests and long-term value in overseas markets, driven by a heightened urgency for real economy investments and the disruptive innovation brought by AI [1] - China’s capital market has already transitioned towards real economy pricing, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, suggesting that short-term market fluctuations should not cause anxiety [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position for the holiday" strategy to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for the post-holiday spring market, particularly in a transitional phase where policy expectations have partially materialized [2] - The focus should be on two main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the emphasis on sectors with safety margins in valuations, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and financials [2] - The second line of focus includes key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military, and aerospace, which are aligned with the new production capacity logic in the domestic economy [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market will maintain a structurally active and oscillating pattern, with technology sectors remaining active in the short term, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and semiconductor equipment [3] - High-dividend sectors are expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-elasticity trading to more certain configurations post-Spring Festival, with a focus on low-valuation, stable earnings, and high dividend certainty [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities notes that the global AI industry cycle is entering a new phase, with a shift in focus towards infrastructure investments that cannot be disrupted by AI, leading to a revaluation of physical assets [4] - Recommendations include investing in physical assets like oil, copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as electrical equipment and engineering machinery [4] - The consumption recovery channel is expected to benefit from capital inflows, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel re-entry, particularly in aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverage sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global AI industry is entering a second phase, leading to a shift in the performance of the technology chain, making it complex to determine which companies will succeed [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of recovery in overseas manufacturing is strengthening, indicating a shift in the core contradictions of AI investment towards infrastructure represented by energy [1] - A quiet revaluation of global physical assets that cannot be disrupted by AI is beginning, with the return of funds from export enterprises signaling a resonance between domestic and external demand [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The revaluation logic of physical assets is shifting from liquidity and dollar credit to low inventory and stabilizing demand, focusing on commodities such as crude oil, oil transportation, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, and rare earths [1] - The Chinese equipment export chain, which has a global comparative advantage and confirmed cyclical bottom, includes sectors like power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, and wafer manufacturing [1] - Domestic manufacturing sectors that are at the bottom of the cycle include petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, and titanium dioxide [1] - The consumption recovery channel is driven by the return of funds, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel entry, focusing on sectors like aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverages [1] - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from the expansion of capital markets and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Spring Festival travel peak, leading to a positive outlook for airline stocks. The report highlights a significant increase in flight operations and passenger volumes during this period, indicating a recovery in demand [4][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for oil transportation to rise, driven by geopolitical factors and structural demand growth, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the shipping sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly focusing on major airlines and low-cost carriers that are expected to benefit from rising ticket prices and improved operational performance [4][6] - It also highlights the logistics and express delivery sectors, noting the positive earnings forecast for companies like SF Express, which is capitalizing on the growth of instant delivery services [6] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from February 2 to February 6 showed significant increases for major airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines leading the growth [4] - The average aircraft utilization rates also improved, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency across the sector [4] Shipping Data Tracking - The report tracks various shipping indices, noting a mixed performance in container shipping but a positive trend in oil transportation indices, suggesting a potential upturn in the oil shipping market [6][7] - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil shipping sector due to limited supply and structural demand growth [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report provides data on logistics performance, indicating a substantial increase in express delivery volumes, which is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in e-commerce and instant delivery services [6] - It highlights the importance of addressing industry challenges such as competition and regulatory changes to maintain profitability [6] Company Performance Tracking - The report includes performance metrics for key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, showcasing their earnings forecasts and operational improvements [4][6] - It emphasizes the strategic positioning of companies like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to leverage their market positions for growth [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is showing resilience and potential for growth amidst fluctuations in other investment areas, with airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines experiencing significant stock price increases and approaching three-year highs in their index [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The aviation index has seen a three-day consecutive rise, indicating a strong performance in the sector [1]. - Recent earnings forecasts from several companies suggest a positive outlook, with historical high passenger load factors and rising ticket prices providing a solid foundation for growth [2][4]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers are optimistic about the aviation sector, citing a favorable supply-demand balance and limited growth in supply due to slow aircraft deliveries from Airbus and Boeing [4]. - The increase in air ticket prices globally, which have risen by 25% compared to 2019, is expected to support profitability, especially as domestic prices remain relatively low due to a decrease in business travel [4][5]. Group 3: Performance of Funds - Several actively managed funds have increased their holdings in aviation stocks, leading to improved performance, such as the fund managed by Yang Jinjing, which saw a 9.43% increase by February 4 [3]. - The shift in fund strategies towards travel and aviation stocks reflects a broader trend of moving away from saturated consumer goods towards service consumption as a growth driver [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The aviation industry is anticipated to experience a tightening supply over the next 3-5 years due to previous losses leading to fewer new aircraft orders [5]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to set records for passenger volume, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand [6]. - By 2026, improvements in supply-demand dynamics and a potential recovery in business travel are projected to lead to a positive shift in pricing and profitability for the industry [6][7].

德国联邦统计局6日公布的数据显示，2025年德国出口在连续两年下滑后首次恢复正增长，但工业产出仍持续收缩。德国出口回暖，经济能否走出低 迷？ 此外，2025年德国对美出口下降9.3%，同时法国对美出口下滑明显加剧。欧洲主要经济体正面临怎样的对美出口压力？ 出口止跌回升 德国经济整体压力仍在 北京外国语大学德语学院副教授寇蔻在接受总台环球资讯《闪评》栏目采访时指出，德国出口回暖释放出一定积极信号，但尚不足以扭转德国经济整体 承压的局面。 △路透社报道截图 中国再成为第一大贸易伙伴 中德经贸韧性凸显 2025年德国出口实现约0.9%的小幅增长。在全球经贸环境低迷、德国经济表现疲弱的背景下，确实"超出此前市场预期"。 出口回暖主要得益于德国对主要欧盟成员国出口的改善。法国、荷兰、波兰等传统市场均实现正增长，凸显欧洲统一市场对德国外贸的重要支撑作用。 2026 年德国出口仍面临美国关税政策不确定、本国经济低迷及企业成本压力等多重挑战。 △彭博社报道截图 工业连续下滑 制造业拖累经济增长 与出口回暖形成鲜明对比的是，2025年德国工业产出较前一年下降1.1%，已连续第四年下滑。寇蔻指出，作为制造业强国，工业萎缩对德国经 ...

Core Insights - The "Treasury Plan" launched by President Trump aims to break the U.S. dependence on China for critical minerals, with a budget of $12 billion [1] - The plan involves collaboration with major companies like General Motors, Boeing, and Google to create emergency stockpiles of strategic minerals [1][3] - The U.S. has formed a critical minerals production alliance with 31 countries to reduce reliance on Chinese resources [3] Funding and Investment - The plan is backed by approximately $2 billion in private capital and up to $10 billion in loans from the Export-Import Bank of the United States [1] - Japan has committed to invest up to $55 billion in the U.S. as part of this initiative, although the terms of the investment have raised concerns domestically [3][5] Strategic Implications - The U.S. government is pushing for public-private partnerships to strengthen domestic mineral production, including investments in companies like MP Materials and American Lithium [1] - Japan's investment strategy has been criticized for its unfavorable terms, which could lead to significant financial risks for Japanese investors [3][5] Geopolitical Context - By 2024, the U.S. is projected to rely on 100% imports for 12 critical minerals, with over 50% of 29 other minerals also coming from imports, highlighting a significant vulnerability [3] - The geopolitical tensions have prompted the U.S. to seek alternatives to Chinese supply chains, but experts warn that immediate changes are unrealistic [3][7] Technological Challenges - Western companies, despite having capital, face significant challenges in replicating China's advanced rare earth processing capabilities, particularly in achieving the required purity levels [8][10] - The concept of "tacit knowledge" in China's industrial ecosystem presents a barrier that Western firms struggle to overcome, impacting their ability to compete effectively [10]