Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices showed a slight rebound followed by a callback, still in a grinding phase. It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday. In the medium - term trend, there is a bullish outlook on the unilateral price, volatility direction, and smelting profit of aluminum [3]. - Alumina prices continued to move downward, and attention should be paid to the downside space. The key lies in the rigid production when the loss area of production capacity expands further [4]. - The overall fundamentals of aluminum are still not bad, with downstream consumption showing a certain degree of improvement during the consumption peak season in September [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly under the influence of the sharp rise in copper prices, but then declined again with the adjustment of copper prices. The short - term trend is still in a grinding phase [3]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: As of September 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 22,000 tons to 614,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of September 26, the weekly total output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased for the sixth consecutive week, with a cumulative year - to - date decline of - 1.39%, and the decline was still moderately expanding compared with the previous week. As of September 24, the output of aluminum profiles continued to increase steadily, and the overall sample production schedule weakened slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 40 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, currently at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [3]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In September, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% compared with the previous week. The stronger downstream sectors are aluminum plates and strips, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys; the relatively weaker sectors are aluminum profiles, aluminum foils, and recycled aluminum alloys [3]. Alumina - **Price Trend**: Alumina first rose slightly and then declined in the past week, with a large divergence in the market around the 2900 mark, and the overall center of gravity was still downward [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market remained weak. The winning bid price of a regular tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang on Monday was lower than the previous one. Manufacturers' willingness to ship and the willingness to accept tender transactions were relatively strong [4]. - **Price Changes**: As of September 26, the average prices of alumina in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia continued to decline. The FOB forward spot price in Australia continued to decline to $321/ton, and the import window remained open, with a profit of about 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 25, the all - caliber social inventory of alumina in Aladdin increased by 78,000 tons to 3.797 million tons compared with the previous week; the inventory in the Steel Union's caliber also continued to accumulate, with the all - caliber inventory reaching 4.505 million tons, increasing by 44,000 tons compared with the previous week [4]. Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum strengthened, while the spot premium of alumina weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 20 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 70 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from 21 yuan/ton to - 21 yuan/ton, and the premium of Henan alumina to the current month changed from 96 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the near - term months of Shanghai aluminum remained stable [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased slightly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly and was at a historical high; the trading volume of the main alumina contract decreased slightly [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the main Shanghai aluminum contract declined; the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and was at a historically low level [20]. Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: - Port inventory and inventory days increased. As of September 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite in the Steel Union's weekly data showed an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same [25]. - In August, the port inventory and port inventory days of bauxite in China according to the Aladdin caliber continued to accumulate [25]. - The port shipping volume of Guinea decreased, and the floating inventory increased. As of September 26, the weekly port shipping volume of Guinea decreased by 215,300 tons compared with the previous week, and the floating inventory increased by 714,400 tons; the port shipping volume of Australia decreased by 153,300 tons, and the floating inventory increased by 447,400 tons [31]. - The outbound volume showed differentiation, and the inbound volume declined. As of September 19, the outbound volume of bauxite from Weipa + Gove Port in Australia decreased by 252,200 tons compared with the previous week; the outbound volume of bauxite from Boffa + Kamsar Port in Guinea increased by 217,800 tons; the inbound volume of bauxite under the SMM caliber decreased by 837,100 tons [36]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to accumulate. The total inventory increased by 44,000 tons compared with the previous week. The in - plant inventory of alumina increased slightly, the alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory at the platform/on - the - way increased slightly [45]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There was a reduction in inventory. As of September 25, the weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 22,000 tons to 614,000 tons [53]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory showed differentiation this week [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foils**: As of August, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly; the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also increased slightly [61]. Production - related - **Bauxite**: In August, the supply of domestic bauxite showed differentiation in different calibers. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. The supply of imported bauxite was still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. The production of bauxite in Shanxi decreased slightly, while the production in Henan increased slightly in the Steel Union's caliber, and decreased in the SMM caliber. The production of bauxite in Guangxi decreased slightly in both calibers [66][70]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental situation of loose supply has not been reversed. As of September 26, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country was 96.7 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. This week, the domestic production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.855 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week, still at a relatively high level in recent years [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. As of August, the operating capacity continued to be at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of September 25, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum in the Steel Union's caliber was 852,700 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the previous week. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally, and the supply pressure decreased [77]. - **Downstream Processing**: - The output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils increased slightly, with a weekly increase of 2,700 tons [79]. - The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased, with a weekly decrease of 500 tons. The load of aluminum rod plants increased slightly, and the weekly output of aluminum rods increased by 600 tons [81]. - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream enterprises increased slightly, reaching 63%. The operating rate of aluminum plates and strips increased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum foils remained at a high level, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained unchanged. The operating rates of aluminum cables, recycled aluminum alloys, and primary aluminum alloys increased [82][88]. Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally. This week, the profit of alumina decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union's caliber was 158.3 yuan/ton, maintaining a relatively good level. In terms of different provinces, the profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [90]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [105]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, but the downstream processing profit was still at a low level. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 40 yuan/ton this week, but the overall downstream processing profit remained low [106]. Consumption - related - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed [115]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,000 tons. The export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed differentiation [117][120]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for primary aluminum and aluminum rods showed certain changes, and the transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [124][128].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum element shows a serious oversupply situation from the mine end, and there is a certain downward pressure on overseas ore prices in the long - term, but the price decline speed and amplitude are controllable before Guinea's monopoly status is shaken [21]. - The alumina industry is in a state of large - scale oversupply and is under import pressure. The price needs to break through the high - cost part of the industry. The Q4 price bottom may test 2700 - 2800 yuan, and mid - term long positions can be considered below 2700 yuan [47]. - The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in Q4 is expected to decline, and the supply will continue to increase both domestically and overseas. The demand growth rate will face downward pressure, but the low supply and inventory will support the aluminum price, and the price does not have a basis for rapid upward movement [51][62][64][72][91]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Ore - Overseas - The latest transaction price range of Guinea's bauxite is 73 - 75 dollars per dry ton, and the bauxite freight is maintained at 20 - 25 dollars per ton. In August, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 18.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% [6][11]. - In 2025, overseas bauxite supply will continue to grow, with the main increment coming from Guinea (+50 million tons), Australia (+2 million tons), and Guyana (+5 million tons). There are many new projects planned in 2026, with a total planned increase of 62.5 million tons [13][14]. - The Q4 price game of Guinea's ore is expected to be 70 - 75 dollars, corresponding to the cash cost of alumina plants using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan of 2900 - 3100 yuan [14]. Aluminum Ore - Domestic - The domestic bauxite price remains stable. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi is 700 yuan per ton, and that in Henan is 658 yuan per ton. From January to August, the domestic bauxite output was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. The domestic bauxite supply in Q4 is expected to have no significant improvement, and the output in 2025 is expected to be 62.3 million tons, an increase of 4.2 million tons (+7.2%) compared with 2024 [20]. Aluminum Ore - Conclusion - From January to August, the total domestic and imported bauxite was 182.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%, while the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum output was +2.7%. The aluminum element shows a serious oversupply situation from the mine end [21]. - Guinea has certain pricing power, but due to the high proportion of bauxite exports in local fiscal revenue, the government is difficult to intervene in supply on a large scale. Domestic mine governance policies will form long - term constraints on domestic ore and support global ore prices to some extent [21]. Alumina - Domestic - In August, the domestic alumina output was 8.1904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 61.81 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The national alumina production capacity is 104.62 million tons (excluding zombie capacity), with an operating capacity of 97.95 million tons and an operating rate of 93.6% [22]. - The alumina supply continues to recover when there are profits. There are new capacity plans in 2025 and 2026, with over 8 million tons of new projects in 2026, and the supply pressure in the second half of 2025 still exists [29][30][32]. Alumina - Overseas - There are many new production plans for overseas alumina in 2025 and 2026, with a total of 10 million tons in 2025 and 8.5 million tons in 2026. The overseas alumina supply is in a state of oversupply [34]. Alumina - Strategy - The alumina industry returns to cost - based pricing. High - cost projects in Shanxi and Henan need to withdraw to repair the supply - demand balance sheet. The Q4 price bottom may test 2700 - 2800 yuan, and mid - term long positions can be considered below 2700 yuan [47]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost - The current real - time full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is over 16,000 yuan per ton, and the industry's theoretical profit is over 4,000 yuan per ton. The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in Q4 is expected to decline, with the cost center dropping to 15,500 - 16,500 yuan per ton [51]. Supply - Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has been released as expected, with a net import of 1.56 million tons of primary aluminum from January to August, and the import scale of Russian aluminum exceeding expectations. There will still be a small amount of capacity release in Q4 2025, with a total of 370,000 tons, and the output in 2025 is expected to be 44.025 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [59][62]. Supply - Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum - The overseas electrolytic aluminum supply shows a slight increasing trend in 2025. The amount of electrolytic aluminum capacity to be increased and restarted in Q4 is 290,000 tons. The overseas supply pressure will gradually increase from 2026, mainly concentrated in Chinese - funded projects in Indonesia [64][66][67]. Consumption - From January to August, the cumulative consumption of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The demand in the first half of the year was better than expected, but the photovoltaic demand will definitely weaken in the second half of the year, the growth rate of household appliance demand is under pressure, and the automobile demand has a downward risk. The demand in Q4 will improve compared with Q3, but the year - on - year growth rate will face greater downward pressure [72]. Balance Sheet & Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment has long - term uncertainties. The long - term supply - demand of global electrolytic aluminum is generally healthy. The aluminum price in Q4 is supported by low supply and inventory, but the demand is not very optimistic, and the price does not have a basis for rapid upward movement. The recommended strategy is to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the medium - long term and maintain rolling operations [91].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market shows a slightly bullish trend in the main contract, with decreasing positions, spot discounts, and weakening basis. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market has a slightly bullish main contract, decreasing positions, spot premiums, and strengthening basis. It is advisable to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum market has a main contract that rises and then retraces, increasing positions, spot premiums, and weakening basis. It is suggested to go long on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,765 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,942 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the cast - aluminum alloy main contract is 20,385 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai aluminum previous 20 - net position is - 9,281 hands, down 3024 hands; the LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, up 3300 tons; the spread between the main and the second - continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum is - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,905 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast - aluminum alloy is 515 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 37 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Demand**: Alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - **Trade**: China's import of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons, up 12115.77 tons; the export is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons; the export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons; the import is 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of electrolytic aluminum is 217,260.71 tons, down 30322.61 tons; the production of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 59.80 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period is 127,734 tons, down 765 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 163.50 million tons, up 9.90 million tons; the production of automobiles is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.46%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.04%, down 0.14%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV is 10.83%, up 0.0014% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, down 0.0424 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Central Bank Statements**: FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor are slowing, and inflation is lower than expected, suggesting further rate cuts [2]. - **Mining Incident**: Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide on September 8, leading to casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine is suspended, with potential production delays in Q4 2025 and 2026 [2]. - **Trade Policy**: Chinese Premier Li Qiang states that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, and hopes that the EU will keep trade and investment markets open and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2]. 3.8 Key Points of Different Aluminum Products - **Alumina**: The main contract is oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is slightly increasing, but the demand boost is less than the supply growth. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main contract is oscillating bullishly, with decreasing positions and strengthening basis. The supply is stable, and the demand is boosted. The option market is bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Cast - Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract rises and then retraces, with increasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand is slightly recovering but still weak. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that product pricing is determined through competitive negotiations or bidding processes, reflecting market-driven results. It plans to enhance its core competitiveness by focusing on R&D, developing new products and processes, and expanding its customer base [2]. Group 1 - The company sells products at prices established through competitive negotiations or bidding, indicating a market-oriented pricing strategy [2]. - The company will continue to monitor industry and market conditions closely to adapt its strategies accordingly [2]. - Future efforts will include increased R&D investment, development of new products and processes, and expansion of a quality customer base to enrich its product matrix [2].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20680元/吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨，较上 一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20690元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至10元/吨；佛山A00 铝价录20620元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-55元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-24日沪铝主力合约开于20685元/吨，收于20705元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，最 高价达20740元/吨，最低价达到20625元/吨。全天交易日成交107916手，全天交易日持仓221314手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-24，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.8万吨，较上一期变化0.0吨，仓单库存67736 吨，较上一交易日变化-1224吨，LME铝库存517150吨，较上一交易日变化3300吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-24SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2950元/吨，山东价格录得2910元/吨，河南价格录得 2990元/吨，广西价格录得3160元/吨，贵州价格录得3 ...

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - Domestic aluminum prices have reached a yearly high, touching 21,000 yuan/ton, marking a 10% increase from the year's low [1] - The outlook for aluminum prices in Q4 remains uncertain, with potential for either upward movement or downward pressure [1][8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0% to 4.25% [2] - The Fed's updated projections indicate an increase in the number of expected rate cuts for the year, now anticipated to be three [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, indicating continued economic expansion, with forward-looking indicators showing a rise in the EPMI to 52.4% [4] - As of September 22, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week but down 93,000 tons year-on-year [6] Group 4: Export Challenges - In August, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products fell by 10.2% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to August down 8.2% [7] - Many companies are focusing on maintaining existing customer orders, with limited success in expanding into new markets [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to lack new upward momentum in the short term due to the upcoming National Day holiday and the recent Fed rate cut [8] - Overall market expectations remain optimistic for Q4, with potential policy support anticipated to drive aluminum prices higher [8]

Group 1 - Wang Yimin has resigned from the board of directors and related committees of Jiaozuo Wanfang due to personal reasons [1] - After his resignation, Wang Yimin will not hold any positions in the company or its subsidiaries [1] - As of the report, Jiaozuo Wanfang's market capitalization is 9.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, Jiaozuo Wanfang's revenue composition is entirely from the aluminum industry, accounting for 100% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to fluctuations in copper prices, with a focus on demand during the peak season of September and October [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a potential extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [4] - Lithium prices are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. retail sales for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [8] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the upper limit of the benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 4.02% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is 23.96, down by 0.80 from the previous week, while the PB_LF valuation is 2.87, down by 0.09 [19] 3. Copper - Copper prices saw a decline, with LME copper down 0.85% and SHFE copper down 1.42% [24] - Domestic copper inventories increased by 12.50%, indicating a potential oversupply [24] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased, with LME aluminum down 0.43% and SHFE aluminum down 1.00% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing a profit margin squeeze, with profits down to 4,793 CNY/ton [35] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45% to 73,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 2.02% to 859 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium prices may have bottomed out and are expected to recover [74] 6. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.93% to 16.30 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.84% to 277,000 CNY/ton [86] - The potential extension of the DRC's cobalt export ban could lead to a significant price rebound [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, as the ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season; the over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, the inventory accumulation trend continues, and the opening of the import window may exacerbate the oversupply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on September 19, the alumina index rose slightly by 1.34% to 2954 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 17,000 lots to 425,000 lots. Affected by the interest rate cut expectation, the non - ferrous sector rebounded during the week, driving the alumina futures price to rebound and then gradually decline after the interest rate meeting. The Shandong spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract, and the discount gradually converged [10]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [10]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 4461,000 tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 23,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 18,000 tons, and decreased by 13,000 tons respectively. The SHFE alumina warehouse receipts increased by 11,700 tons to 150,400 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 174,200 tons, an increase of 8900 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts further increased [10]. - **Mine End**: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south, and the domestic ore price is expected to remain firm. For imported ore, the shipment from Guinea has decreased, which may lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ore, and the ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season [11]. - **Supply End**: The weekly domestic alumina production reached 1.861 million tons this week, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, hitting a record high [11]. - **Import and Export**: As of September 19, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 10 US dollars/ton to 323 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was 103 yuan/ton, with the import window opening. The increase in future imports may exacerbate the oversupply situation in the domestic alumina market [11]. - **Demand End**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.4 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 97.12% month - on - month [11]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline this week. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [19]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on September 19, the alumina index rose slightly by 1.34% to 2954 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 17,000 lots to 425,000 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract, and the discount gradually converged. The month - to - month spread between contract 1 and contract 3 closed at - 21 yuan/ton [22]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea ore was 74.5 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian ore was 70 US dollars/ton. The shipment from Guinea decreased, and the ore price had short - term support [25]. 3. Supply End - **Bauxite Production**: In August 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [28]. - **Bauxite Import**: In July 2025, China imported 20.06 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% and a month - on - month increase of 10.75%. The total import in the first seven months of 2025 was 123.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.69% [30]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In August, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 160,000 tons, and the total inventory reached 53.3 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. The inventory in Shanxi decreased by 120,000 tons, and that in Henan decreased by 40,000 tons [37]. - **Alumina Production**: In August 2025, the alumina production was 7.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.53% and a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The cumulative production in the first eight months of 2025 was 59.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.45% [39]. - **Alumina Operating Capacity**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 94.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.87% and a month - on - month increase of 0.85%. The weekly domestic alumina production reached 1.861 million tons this week, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, hitting a record high [40]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina factories was under pressure. The production profit in Guangxi could reach 415 yuan/ton. The profit of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong was 120 yuan/ton and 180 yuan/ton respectively. Alumina factories in inland areas using overseas ore had a slight loss [43]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In July 2025, the net export of alumina was 103,500 tons. The import volume increased from 101,300 tons last month to 125,900 tons, and the export volume increased from 171,000 tons to 229,400 tons. The total net export in the first seven months of 2025 was 1.1786 million tons. As of September 19, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 10 US dollars/ton to 323 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was 103 yuan/ton, with the import window opening [45][47]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In August 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.21% and a month - on - month increase of 0.57%. The cumulative production in the first eight months of 2025 was 41.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62% [50]. 4. Demand End - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In August 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.788 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.26%. The total production in the first eight months of 2025 was 29.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% [54]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Operating Rate**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.4 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 97.12% month - on - month [57]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the supply and demand situation of alumina in each month from January to December 2025, including supply, demand, import, export, and supply - demand difference [59]. 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 4.461 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 23,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 18,000 tons, and decreased by 13,000 tons respectively [63]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE alumina warehouse receipts increased by 11,700 tons to 150,400 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 174,200 tons, an increase of 8900 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts further increased [65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The results of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, changes in domestic aluminum social inventory, and the operating conditions of downstream processing enterprises will determine the subsequent breakthrough direction of aluminum prices [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On September 17, 2025, the al2510 contract of Shanghai Aluminum futures showed a volatile downward trend throughout the day, closing with a negative line, down about 0.38% from the previous settlement to 20910 points. The daily trading volume was 87,910 lots, and the open interest was 137,521 lots [2]. - The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 588,644 lots, a decrease of 10,552 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 decreased by 16,514 lots, indicating capital reduction during the decline [3]. 3.2 Spot Market On September 17, 2025, the basis of the main contract al2510 of Shanghai Aluminum strengthened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,890 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro - information**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting is imminent. The significant deterioration of the US employment market data has strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" by General Secretary Xi Jinping published in Qiushi Journal, aiming to rectify the disorderly low - price competition among enterprises, provides support for the market [7]. - **Fundamental information**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level and is approaching the "ceiling", with limited subsequent increments. With the arrival of the peak season, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has rebounded, and orders in related fields such as photovoltaics and automobiles have increased. However, high - priced aluminum significantly suppresses consumption, and the overall purchasing willingness is not strong. The electrolytic aluminum inventory fluctuates, and a stable de - stocking trend has not been formed [8]. - **Technical analysis**: The daily line of the al2510 contract of Shanghai Aluminum effectively broke below the 5 - day moving average and tested the support of the 10 - day moving average. The MACD red column shrank, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and market participants showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [9].