高盛研究部最新指出，尽管美国股市，尤其是大型科技股，仍主要由盈利增长所驱动，但在美国以外的 市场，盈利改善与估值上升之间呈现出更加均衡的发展态势。过去一年中，美国股票与全球其他市场之 间经增长调整后的估值差距已明显收窄。 高盛研究部预计，这一经增长调整后的估值比率在2026年将继续趋同，即便美国股市的绝对估值水平仍 可能维持在相对高位。 此外，奥本海默补充称，非科技行业今年可能表现强劲。投资者或可受益于那些从科技公司资本支出中 获得正向溢出效应的企业。随着人工智能技术的落地与普及，市场关注点有望逐步从科技行业本身，扩 展至科技发展所带动的更广泛产业领域。 高盛研究部首席全球股票策略师彼得.奥本海默(Peter Oppenheimer)表示，多元化配置在2026年有望继续 提供更优的风险调整后回报。投资者应关注更广泛的地域敞口，包括新兴市场，同时在组合中平衡配置 成长股与价值股，并分散于多个行业。 他指出，随着股票同步性(相关性)的下降，个股选择的机会正在增加。"我们正在关注alpha回报的上 升，因为股票相关性已经下降，并且可能在低位维持一段时间。" ...

1月23日，在全球金融版图重构的当下，黄金正从避险资产转变为投资组合的战略核心。FXGT表示， 私人部门投资者正积极效仿全球央行的动作，通过大规模增持黄金实现资产多元化。受此趋势推动，高 盛近期已将 2026 年 12 月的金价目标从 4900 美元大幅上调至 5400 美元，上调幅度超过 10%。FXGT认 为，这一调整反映了市场对宏观政策长期风险的深度忧虑，黄金已成为抵御货币不确定性的"终极保 险"。 黄金头寸的性质正在发生深刻变化。FXGT表示，不同于以往针对短期选举事件的对冲，目前私人投资 者购入黄金更多是基于对财政可持续性的长期考量，这种头寸具有极强的"粘性"，不会在短期内被轻易 平仓。同时，新兴市场央行的结构性购金需求依然强劲，FXGT表示，2026 年全球央行的平均月购买量 预计将维持在 60 至 70 吨的高位，这比 2022 年前的平均水平高出约 4 倍，为金价提供了坚实的底部支 撑。 在货币政策方面，随着美联储在 2026 年有望进一步降息 50 个基点，持有黄金的成本将继续下降。事实 上，自 2025 年初以来，西方黄金 ETF 的持仓量已激增约 500 吨，其增长速度已远超纯粹基于降息 ...

百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，特朗普的一系列动作导致全球格局加速重塑，各国央行 大幅购买黄金以调整储备结构，中长期利好黄金。 技术面：黄金周线月线均为多头趋势，日线4连阳。小时图来看，黄金上涨强劲且连续，昨日（1月22 日）突破4900美元后并未停下上涨的脚步，大涨不言顶，继续保持上涨的概率大。日内关注4908美元的 多空分界线。 原油方面： 昨日晚间，美国至1月16日EIA原油库存数据录得增加360.2万桶，高于预期的增加113.1万桶，利空油 价。同时美国战略原油库存增加80.6万桶，高于前值的增加21.4万桶，美国国内的原油产量连续两周小 幅下降，是2025年10月31日当周以来的最低水平。 OPEC+从2025年4月开始持续增产，今年第一季度暂停增产，多家投行认为2026年全球原油将出现大幅 过剩，峰值可能在上半年出现。由于今年的各个季度都将出现盈余，原油库存累库风险上升，拖累油 价。 黄金方面： 高盛最新发布的报告显示，到今年年底，黄金价格将突破5400美元，高于此前预测的4900美元。同时还 指出，黄金的抢购潮不仅出现在传统的ETF购买上，还表现在对冲全球宏观政策风险的投资上。 特朗普 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the global M&A landscape in 2026 will be characterized by strategic restructuring and scaling, driven by significant public market funds, private capital, and the profound impact of AI on the macro environment [1][2]. Group 1: Drivers of M&A Activity in the Asia-Pacific Region - A wave of corporate governance reforms is enhancing transparency and accountability, creating more attractive opportunities for local and international buyers, sellers, and investors [4]. - The surge in technological innovation and strategic expansion is fostering a vibrant environment for consolidation and transformation in key industries across the Asia-Pacific, leading to more mega-deals [5]. - Financial investment institutions are increasingly active in M&A activities in the Asia-Pacific region, driven by a growing focus on high-value growth opportunities and capital deployment needs [6]. Group 2: Global Trends Influencing M&A - The AI-driven innovation supercycle is broadening the scope for cross-industry strategic mergers and acquisitions, as AI disrupts all sectors and increases demand for digital infrastructure, energy, semiconductors, and hardware optimization [7]. - Rising tariffs and a more fragmented global trade environment are prompting companies to rethink their growth strategies and geographic footprints, with cross-border M&A transactions in the Asia-Pacific becoming particularly active [8]. - The private market is becoming a central hub for M&A transactions, with an increase in privatization transactions, which saw a 31% year-on-year growth in global transaction value, allowing financial investment institutions to recapitalize, restructure, and strategically reshape private companies [9]. Group 3: Complex Transactions and Investor Activism - The complexity of transactions is increasing due to changing financial conditions, regulatory requirements, and business priorities, necessitating more customized and flexible capital solutions to support large-scale capital expenditures and acquisitions [10]. - The current environment is favorable for activist investors, with the number of related activities steadily rising, driven primarily by M&A-related demands, pushing companies towards clearer transformation and strategic direction [12]. - Fundamental drivers of M&A include the financing conditions in public and private markets, the recovery of the IPO market, and the willingness and capability to pursue strategic deals, all of which are expected to play a role in 2026 [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As the market approaches 2026, it is poised for a new wave of strategic transformation, with companies focusing on capability-driven acquisitions to reshape their business portfolios and drive long-term growth [14].

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng (601456) expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, projecting a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 406% [1][13]. Investment Banking Performance - The investment banking segment of Guolian Minsheng has shown remarkable growth, with a strong pipeline of IPO projects. As of the end of 2025, there are 361 companies queued for IPOs in the A-share market, with Guolian Minsheng ranking sixth with 13 companies [1][19]. - The company completed five IPO underwriting projects in the A-share market in 2025, ranking seventh in terms of the number of projects and underwriting amounts exceeding 3 billion yuan, also placing seventh in the industry [7][19]. New Third Board Market - In the New Third Board market, Guolian Minsheng led the underwriting and sponsorship with 27 new listing projects, achieving a market share of 8%, confirming its strong collaborative and professional service capabilities [2][16]. - The company ranked first among main underwriters in the New Third Board market for 2025, with a total of 27 projects [3][17]. IPO Guidance - In terms of IPO guidance, Guolian Minsheng ranked fourth with 24 new guidance projects in 2025, amidst a total of 410 new guidance projects across the market [4][18]. Strategic Development - Following the merger with Minsheng Securities, Guolian Minsheng has focused on integrating technology, finance, and industry, enhancing its comprehensive financial service capabilities through a strategy centered on "collaborative empowerment" and "internal growth" [6][18]. - The company aims to be the "most industry-friendly investment bank," providing tailored financial solutions across various stages of enterprise development, including equity financing, bond financing, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory services [12][22]. Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that Guolian Minsheng will achieve better results in the IPO market in 2026, especially as the A-share market is expected to recover [13][23].

花旗集团近日将近3个月黄金目标价上调至每盎司5000美元。花旗集团同时预计，如果地缘政治紧张局势缓解，黄金价格在2026年下半年可能下挫。 2026年年初至今，伦敦现货黄金价格已上涨超13%。 北京时间1月23日上午，伦敦现货黄金价格历史首次突破4960美元/盎司。Wind数据显示，截至发稿，伦敦现货黄金盘中最高价为4967.37美元/盎司，最新 价报4955.02美元/盎司，交易日内涨0.39%。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4955.020 | | 昨结 | 4935.960 | 总量 | | 0 | | +19.060 | +0.39% 开盘 | | 4937.000 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4967.370 | 持 仓 | 0 | A 智 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4929.945 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 智 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 間K | 目K | 車を | (0) | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Federal Reserve is expected to shift its monetary policy in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to three consecutive interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, driven by a cooling job market and easing inflation pressures [1] - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that if employment data continues to deteriorate, the policy rate may drop to 3% by the end of 2025 [1] - The article highlights the importance of optimizing investment strategies and controlling risk exposure for individual investors in a volatile market environment [1] Group 2 - The "Caiyuan Rolling" stock trading assistant offers a rule-driven investment strategy that automates decision-making, allowing users to customize technical indicators and execute trades automatically [2] - The system incorporates position management rules to enhance risk control, limiting daily purchases to three stocks and capping individual stock holdings at 10% of total funds [2] - Users can adjust strategy parameters to tighten stop-loss limits or reduce daily purchase quantities, thereby minimizing the impact of short-term volatility [2] Group 3 - The "Caiyuan Rolling" assistant features a real-time tracking function that provides users with timely updates on their holdings, including buy/sell notifications and performance metrics [3] - The system generates backtesting data, such as holding return curves and maximum drawdown rates, allowing users to evaluate their strategies against market performance [3] Group 4 - The assistant is designed with tiered access to cater to different investor needs, allowing ordinary users to create up to 20 strategies with unlimited backtesting [5] - New users benefit from a 7-day trial period, enabling them to create five strategies and conduct five backtests daily without incurring costs [5] - The tool aims to support individual investors in navigating the complexities of decision-making during the liquidity restructuring caused by the Fed's interest rate cuts [5][6]

据新华社，国际黄金和白银价格23日均创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金价格一度涨破每盎司4959美元，现货白银价格一度触及每盎司96.91美元。 现货黄金继续大涨，站上突破4900美元/盎司，刷新历史新高，日内涨超2%。 高盛将黄金今年底目标价从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元 高盛将黄金今年底目标价从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，理由是私人部门投资者和中央银行对黄金的需求不断增长。 高盛分析师在报告中指出，预计各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联储降息，黄金ETF的持有量也将增加。高盛分析师称，各国央行已开始 通过传统的ETF，与私人部门投资者争夺有限的黄金。 来源：新华社、智通财经、扬子晚报 ...

以下文章来源于中金公司CICC ，作者中金公司 中金公司CICC . 中国国际金融股份有限公司（中金公司）成立于1995年，致力于为多元化的客户群体提供高质量金融增值服务，建立了以研究和信息技术为基础，投资银 行、股票业务、固定收益、资产管理、私募股权和财富管理全方位发展的均衡业务结构。 1月21日至22日，中金公司周期行业研讨会在上海成功举办。本次会议以"论道周期，乘势而为"为主题，围绕"资源、能源、中游资本品"三大方 向，从宏观、政策、产业等多个维度深入探讨和分析。中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生出席会议并致开幕辞。 聚焦宏观修复与产业重估，探讨周期⾏业新机遇 在当前经济运行逐步企稳、产业结构持续演进的背景下，周期行业正处于新一轮调整与重估的重要阶段。来自能源、资源及中游资本品等领域的十余 位产业嘉宾与中金研究团队展开深入交流，共同探讨周期行业运行逻辑的变化及潜在投资机会。会议吸引了近1200名投资界、产业界和学术界的嘉 宾报名参会。 中金公司研究部首席宏观分析师张文朗作"双变局重塑资产配置"主题发言。来自建材、矿业及石化行业的多位产业嘉宾分别发表主题演讲，从行业实 践角度分享对周 ...

Group 1 - The core concern is the potential impact of U.S. President Trump's policies on the international status of the dollar, with warnings from Morgan Stanley about the risks of de-dollarization due to U.S. actions in debt, trade, and national security [1][2] - The international price of gold has doubled in the past 18 months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards alternatives to the dollar, as foreign central banks now hold approximately $4 trillion in gold, surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings of $3.9 trillion for the first time since 1996 [1] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies is accelerating the global movement towards alternatives to the dollar, as highlighted by the actions of various investors and funds [1] Group 2 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, expressed concerns that Trump's actions could lead to a "capital war," prompting countries to sell off dollar assets, which could undermine U.S. credibility and complicate financing for the U.S. fiscal deficit [2] - The Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to sell all of its U.S. Treasury holdings, approximately $100 million, due to concerns over the U.S. government's financial stability, reflecting a broader trend of caution among foreign investors [2] - The reliance of the U.S. on foreign investors for debt financing has been highlighted as a critical vulnerability, especially in the context of ongoing trade disputes [2]