来源|华尔街见闻 01 ETF资金意外涌入，主要源自私人投资者转向 高盛在报告中强调，近期金价突破的关键驱动力之一，是西方投资者对黄金ETF的强劲需求。 高盛的分析框架将黄金买家分为三类：西方ETF投资者、各国央行和投机者，而近期金价的上涨主要反映了"信念坚定"的个人买家正在加大采购力 度。 报告显示，9月份流入黄金ETF的资金量达到了109吨，而该行的模型基于利率走势预测的流入量仅为17吨。其中，投机性仓位在过去一个多月的涨 幅中仅能解释约1个百分点，且在最近三周并未增加。 这一"巨大意外"表明，高盛此前一直警示的潜在上行风险——即个人投资者将大量资金分散配置到黄金——"目前似乎正在成为现实"。 报告进一步指出，在金价自8月26日以来的约14%的涨幅中，由西方ETF持仓增长贡献了其中的3个百分点。 长期看涨黄金的高盛表示，在西方个人投资者意外大举增持的推动下，金价的涨势可能远未结束。 据追风交易台消息显示，高盛分析师Daan Struyven、Lina Thomas、Alexandra Paulus在近日发布的研报中表示，近期流入黄金ETF的资金规模远 超模型预期，表明个人投资者将资金从固收等传统资产转向黄 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached record highs for three consecutive days, nearing the $3900 mark, with Goldman Sachs indicating that the upward trend may continue due to significant inflows from Western individual investors [1][2] - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the recent inflow into gold ETFs has far exceeded model expectations, suggesting a shift of funds from traditional assets like fixed income to gold, which is seen as a key driver for rising gold prices [1][2] - Since late August, gold prices have increased by over 10%, driven primarily by steadfast buyers rather than speculative short-term funds, enhancing the sustainability of this upward trend [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the strong demand for gold ETFs from Western investors is a key driver behind the recent surge in gold prices, with September inflows reaching 109 tons, significantly higher than the model's predicted 17 tons [2] - Speculative positions have contributed minimally to the recent price increase, indicating that the current upward movement is largely supported by committed individual buyers [2] - Although central bank gold purchase data for September is not yet available, Goldman Sachs anticipates a resurgence in central bank demand following a quiet summer period, which may have contributed significantly to the recent price increase [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has raised its baseline price forecast for gold, now predicting it could reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4300 by the end of 2026, citing low speculative involvement as a reason for a more solid price foundation [3] - The relatively small size of the gold market, compared to private holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, means that even a minor diversification shift from fixed income assets could lead to significant price increases for gold [3] - Gold is viewed as an attractive investment option due to its ability to hedge against tail risks in scenarios of economic slowdown and increasing macroeconomic policy concerns in developed markets [3]

黄金已连续三日创盘中历史新高， 距离3900美元关口仅一步之遥，未来走势会如何？ 长期看涨黄金的高盛表示，在西方个人投资者意外大举增持的推动下，金价的涨势可能远未结束。 据追风交易台消息显示，高盛分析师Daan Struyven、Lina Thomas、Alexandra Paulus在近日发布的研报中表示， 近期流入黄金ETF的资金规模远超模型预 期，表明个人投资者将资金从固收等传统资产转向黄金的趋势可能正在成为现实，这一动向被视为金价上行的关键"巨大风险"。 自8月下旬以来，黄金价格已上涨超过10%，强势突破了第二、三季度的交易区间。报告称， 此轮上涨的主要动力来自"信念坚定"的买家，而非投机性短线资 金，这增加了本轮涨势的可持续性。 该行重申，黄金仍然是其"最高信念"的做多大宗商品推荐。高盛此前曾测算， 若私人持有的美国国债资金中仅有1%转向黄金 ， 金价理论上可能升至近5000美 元/盎司，这一情景正因投资者行为的变化而变得更具现实可能。 ETF资金意外涌入，主要源自私人投资者转向 高盛在报告中强调，近期金价突破的关键驱动力之一，是西方投资者对黄金ETF的强劲需求。 高盛的分析框架将黄金买家分为三类： ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by strong interest from private investors, suggesting further upside potential that may exceed previous forecasts [2][10]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,865 per ounce, continuing a five-day upward trend and approaching the $4,000 milestone [1]. - Year-to-date, gold has surged nearly 50%, surpassing the highest inflation-adjusted record set in 1980 [7]. - Since August 29, gold prices have increased by over 10%, breaking through previous trading ranges of $3,200 to $3,450 per ounce [7]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Private investors are significantly increasing their investments in gold, with September inflows into gold ETFs reaching 109 tons, far exceeding the model's predicted 17 tons [9]. - The report highlights two types of gold buyers: steadfast buyers who consistently purchase regardless of price, and opportunistic buyers who enter the market only when prices are favorable [9]. - Steadfast buyers, including central banks and ETFs, have a notable impact on price movements, with a net purchase of 100 tons of gold correlating to a 1.7% increase in gold prices [8]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold purchases, with a structural shift in reserve management observed since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [8]. - A recent survey indicated that 95% of central banks anticipate increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months, with 43% planning to buy more gold, the highest level since 2018 [8]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the trend of central banks increasing gold allocations will persist for at least three years, particularly among emerging market central banks [8].

长期看涨黄金的高盛表示，在西方个人投资者意外大举增持的推动下，金价的涨势可能远未结束。 据追风交易台消息显示，高盛分析师Daan Struyven、Lina Thomas、Alexandra Paulus在近日发布的研报 中表示，近期流入黄金ETF的资金规模远超模型预期，表明个人投资者将资金从固收等传统资产转向黄 金的趋势可能正在成为现实，这一动向被视为金价上行的关键"巨大风险"。 自8月下旬以来，黄金价格已上涨超过10%，强势突破了第二、三季度的交易区间。报告称，此轮上涨 的主要动力来自"信念坚定"的买家，而非投机性短线资金，这增加了本轮涨势的可持续性。 该行重申，黄金仍然是其"最高信念"的做多大宗商品推荐。高盛此前曾测算，若私人持有的美国国债资 金中仅有1%转向黄金，金价理论上可能升至近5000美元/盎司，这一情景正因投资者行为的变化而变得 更具现实可能。 ETF资金意外涌入，主要源自私人投资者转向 高盛认为，该行对金价的基准预测正面临越来越大的上行风险。 风险加剧的原因有二：首先，本轮涨势的投机成分很低，表明涨势基础更为坚实。其次，由于黄金市场 规模相对较小（例如，西方黄金ETF的总价值仅相当于私人持有 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, indicating that prices may rise further due to strong interest from private investors, potentially exceeding previous forecasts [1] - Analysts, including Daan Struyven, noted that inflows into gold ETFs have been unexpectedly strong, surpassing prior model predictions, which introduces significant upside risk to their forecasts [1] - The firm originally projected gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 by the end of next year, with a possibility of prices hitting $5,000 if 1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings shift to gold [1] Group 2 - Since August 29, gold prices have increased by 12%, breaking out of the $3,200-$3,450 per ounce range that characterized much of Q2 and Q3 [1] - A key catalyst for this price increase is the potential acceleration of gold purchases by central banks after a seasonal lull, with speculative positioning only explaining a small part of the recent price surge [1] - Gold has been one of the strongest performing major commodities, soaring nearly 50% this year, surpassing the inflation-adjusted record set in 1980, driven by collective central bank buying and the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts [1] Group 3 - The U.S. government shutdown and pressure on the dollar have also contributed to the rise in gold prices, which were around $3,865 per ounce, continuing a five-day upward trend and approaching the $4,000 milestone [2]

Core Viewpoint - The M&A market in China is expected to see significant growth, with the scale of mergers and acquisitions potentially approaching a ten-year high by 2025, driven by policy support and market demand for industrial restructuring [1][8]. Group 1: M&A Market Dynamics - The activity level in the M&A market has significantly increased due to improved marketization and regulatory flexibility [1]. - In the past year, over 230 A-share restructuring transactions were disclosed, doubling from the previous year, with announced transaction volume reaching approximately $350 billion in 2025, surpassing the total for the previous year [2]. - The "M&A Six Guidelines" have enhanced market focus on mergers and acquisitions, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [2][8]. Group 2: Characteristics of M&A Transactions - Sellers are primarily from strategic emerging industries, with a preference for smaller targets, particularly those valued below 2 billion yuan [3]. - The "Double Innovation" sector has become a major player in M&A, accounting for nearly 50% of restructuring transactions since the "9.24" policy [3]. - Cross-border mergers are increasing, but they come with inherent integration risks and challenges in valuation due to differing industry logics and information asymmetries [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges in Valuation and Integration - Valuing unprofitable companies remains challenging, as buyers and sellers often disagree on the value due to the reliance on non-financial factors like technological potential [6][7]. - Companies must balance long-term strategic goals with short-term stability and shareholder returns when acquiring unprofitable assets [6]. - Effective transaction design is crucial to minimize risks and ensure smooth integration post-acquisition [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The M&A market is transitioning from incremental expansion to stock optimization, with large-scale transactions expected to become a core driver of industry restructuring [8][9]. - Investment banks must enhance their capabilities in value creation and comprehensive service offerings to succeed in the evolving M&A landscape [10]. - Regulatory bodies are encouraged to provide more supportive measures in taxation and financing to facilitate M&A activities [10].

彭博社报道称，市场需求远超预期，订单簿一度达到277亿美元，最终发行规模锁定在112.5亿美元，体 现了国际投资者对科威特债务工具的强烈兴趣。 分析人士认为，此次发行得益于科威特在今年3月通过的公共债务法修正案。新法案将国家借款上限从 100亿科威特第纳尔（约合325亿美元）提高到300亿第纳尔（约合975亿美元），并允许发行更长期限的 债务工具。 新华财经科威特城10月2日电 科威特财政部9月30日通过伦敦证券交易所公告披露，该国成功发行总额 达112.5亿美元的国际债券。这是科威特自2017年以来首次重返美元债市场，也是该国历史上规模最大 的单次国际债券发行，显示出这一海湾产油国在拓宽融资渠道、推进财政多元化方面迈出关键一步。 根据公告，此次债券发行分为三期：32.5亿美元的三年期债券，收益率4.016%；30亿美元的五年期债 券，收益率4.136%；以及50亿美元的十年期债券，收益率4.652%。所有债券均按票面价值100%定价， 发行后将在伦敦证券交易所上市。 此次交易由摩根大通证券公司担任稳定协调人，花旗、高盛、汇丰和瑞穗银行担任稳定管理人。 科威特是世界主要产油国之一，财政收入对石油依赖度高。石油 ...

曾被全世界认可为最健康的公司，一度是"安全"的代名词，但只在短短48小时内，就变成了牵扯全球经济的定时炸弹。 在救还是不救之间，美联储面临了史上最难的一次抉择，搞明这家公司的崩塌过程，也许能提前感知到下一个可能倒下的行业巨头。 这家公司起源于上海，后来发展成了全美最大的保险企业——美国国际集团（AIG）。 在2008年前，AIG已经是美国最稳妥的公司之一，业务遍布140个国家和地区，总资产达1.2万亿美元，超过当年中国外汇储备的六成，像平安、国寿这些国 内品牌的规模都比不过它。 那一天，AIG的股价猛跌60%，信用评级也被调低，陷入了流动性危机，只能向纽约联储申请了300亿美元的紧急贷款。那会儿，整个美国只有美联储的下 属机构有能力出手救援。 9月15日7时10分，时任财长保尔森接到小布什总统的电话，明确表示政府不会再帮助华尔街的企业了。 这既是政府的态度，也符合民意，当时人们对金融巨头"盈利由自己享受，亏损由大家买单"的做法不满，而且正值美国大选期间，各政党都得考虑选票的因 素。 但AIG不同寻常，它可是美国金融体系的"核心"。 在2006年英超曼联的黄金时期，AIG每个赛季花费上千万英镑，把Logo印在曼 ...

Group 1 - Foreign investment in Chinese assets is increasing, with major international banks like Goldman Sachs and HSBC recommending an "overweight" position on A-shares [1][2] - HSBC's recent survey indicates that over half of the respondents are optimistic about the A-share market, a significant increase from about one-third in June [2] - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from 1370 to 1480 points, indicating a potential upside of approximately 10% [2] Group 2 - The overall confidence of investors in Chinese investments has been steadily increasing this year, with a growing willingness to allocate to non-USD assets [3] - Multiple factors, including policy support and positive economic fundamentals, are boosting investment confidence in the Chinese stock market [4] - China's economic fundamentals remain solid, with rapid industrial upgrades and the emergence of new productive forces in sectors like renewable energy and AI [4] Group 3 - Long-term capital inflows are a key reason for foreign investors' positive outlook on Chinese assets, supported by domestic institutions like insurance and pension funds [5] - The liquidity in the A-share market has improved, attracting participation from emerging market and Asia-Pacific mutual funds [5] Group 4 - Investor sentiment towards the A-share market has significantly improved, driven by ample liquidity and accelerated technological innovation [6] - The influx of additional household savings, which accounts for 5% of GDP, is expected to further boost market valuations, particularly in innovative sectors [6] Group 5 - The ongoing reforms and opening-up of the capital market are expected to accelerate, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets to foreign investors [7][8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to implement key measures to improve cross-border investment and financing convenience [8]