农产品板块，白糖、生猪跌超1%，红枣涨超1% 智通财经：瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪在2026年展望报告中指出，预计中国股市将迎来又一个丰年，因包括创新领域发展等许多有利的驱动 因素将继续支撑市场。MSCI中国指数明年末目标位为100，较当前有14%的上涨空间。 智通财经：下任美联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒周一表示，支持在12月的政策会议上再次降息。他称，他越来越担心劳动力市场及招聘活动急 剧放缓。他表示，"劳动力市场依旧疲软，且已接近增长失速的临界水平"，同时剔除关税影响后的通胀 "已相对接近" 美联储2%的目标水平。 | | 化工 | | | 黑色金属 | | | 有色金属 | | | 油脂油料 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 橡胶 rum | | 20号胶 nrm | 螺纹钢 rbm | | 铁矿石 im | 氧化铝 aom 铝合金 adm | | 碳酸锂 lcm | ə qalında qal | 豆二 bm | | 15295.00 0.33% | | 12345.00 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 11827, with a recent opening at 11975 and a current price of 11793, reflecting a decline of 1.76% [1] - The highest price reached today was 12027, while the lowest was 11766, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 2026 investment outlook report suggests a divergence in central bank policies across major markets, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to a weak labor market [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates in the foreseeable future, while the Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December amid improving inflation and a weak labor market [1] - Japan's high inflation and strong growth may lead to interest rate hikes, supported by recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy [1] - Trade Nation's senior market analyst indicates that if silver prices fall below $50 this week, it could signal further declines as the market seeks reliable support [1] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that recent cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials have reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in December to 43%, down from 62% the previous week [1] - The sentiment in the silver market remains strong, although prices have continued to decline, with resistance levels noted between 12000-12500 and support levels between 11500-11700 [2]

高盛分析师莉娜・托马斯团队测算显示，9月全球央行合计净购金量达64吨，较8月的21吨实现逾三倍增长，环比激增 204.8%，这一强劲势头有望延续至11月。 现货金价在10月突破每盎司4380美元的历史峰值，即便近期出现回调，截至最新统计仍稳定在4068美元/盎司水平，年内累计 涨幅高达55%，远超全球主要资产平均收益率。 全球经济复苏不均衡引发的增长预期分化、地缘政治冲突导致的风险溢价上升、黄金ETF资金的持续流入，以及市场对美联储 宽松周期的提前定价。黄金与美元资产的负相关性持续强化，2025年美元指数较年初下跌7.8%，而黄金储备在全球央行外汇 资产中的占比已升至18.3%，形成鲜明的反向联动。 高盛集团最新发布的专项报告显示，在季节性购金需求淡季落幕之后，各国央行的黄金增持行动再度进入加速通道。 高盛预测，2024年第四季度至2026年期间，全球央行月均净购金量将稳定在80吨左右。高盛重申2026年底金价将攀升至每盎司 4900美元的目标位，如果私人投资需求持续升温，这一目标存在上修空间。 全球央行连续三年购金超千吨，2025年前三季度累计购金634吨，这一规模已占据全球黄金年产量的三分之一以上。高盛指 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 黄金价格近期出现回调，引发市场对这一贵金属今年强劲涨势是否已接近尾声的质疑。 4000美元下方似乎有抄底资金支撑，但黄金过去一个月仍累计下跌7.4%。这一表现虽难以让人安心， 但高盛近期重新评估了2026年黄金价格前景，并指出一个可能决定金价下一步走势的关键催化剂。 2025年黄金大涨的背后：收益率下跌+美元走弱 从GDP增长数据来看，美国经济表现良好；然而，失业率上升与通胀反弹等明显问题已显现，将美联储 置于两难境地。 薪资处理公司ADP数据显示，美国就业市场新增岗位数量低于2024年水平。企业裁员人数激增，失业率 升至2021年以来最高水平。与此同时，美国总统特朗普的关税策略推高了进口成本，可能导致通胀上 升。 美国劳工统计局8月报告显示，失业率从7月的3.4%升至4.3%。Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据显 示，截至10月，美国雇主今年已宣布裁员110万人，较2024年同期增长44%。 求职网站Resume.org的一项研究显示，2025年有40%的公司进行了裁员，60%的公司预计2026年将削减 员工。 与此同时， ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Investment Bank's China equity strategy head Wang Zonghao predicts a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by several favorable factors continuing from 2025, including advancements in innovation, particularly in AI, supportive policies for private enterprises and capital markets, ongoing fiscal expansion, ample liquidity under loose monetary policy, and potential capital inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - Continued development in innovative sectors, especially AI, is expected to support the market [1] - Supportive policies for private enterprises and capital markets will play a crucial role [1] - Ongoing fiscal expansion and sufficient liquidity due to loose monetary policy are significant factors [1] - Potential capital inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors are anticipated [1] Group 2: Earnings and Valuation - Unlike the substantial valuation increases seen this year, 2026's stock performance is expected to be more driven by earnings [1] - Projected earnings per share growth of 10% is anticipated, supported by "anti-involution" measures and a decrease in depreciation and amortization expenses [1] - The target for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026 is set at 100, indicating a 14% upside from current levels [1] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The outlook remains positive for sectors such as internet, hardware technology, and brokerage firms [1] - High-dividend stocks that are experiencing declining yields have been removed from consideration [1] - As global growth improves, some "overseas" stocks are expected to be included in the investment strategy [1]

Core Insights - The recent performance of gold ETFs shows a decline of 1.00% as of November 18, 2025, with a latest price of 8.78 yuan, while over the past two weeks, there has been a cumulative increase of 0.97% [2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices will reach $4,500 per ounce by 2026, driven by weak supply-demand balance and expectations of economic downturns [3] Market Performance - As of November 17, 2025, gold ETF trading volume was 1.95%, with a transaction value of 7.42 billion yuan, and the average daily transaction over the past week was 16.32 billion yuan [2] - On November 17, gold prices fluctuated, hitting a low of $4,006.8 per ounce before closing at $4,045.1 per ounce, reflecting a 1.2% decline in COMEX gold futures [2] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve official Jefferson expressed cautious views on interest rate cuts, indicating rising risks in employment and a slight decrease in inflation risks, with a 42.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2] - Morgan Stanley highlights that the recent pullback in gold prices is influenced by signals of a weak U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, with a need to monitor U.S. economic data and Fed policy [3] Fund Flows - The latest net inflow into gold ETFs was 321 million yuan, with a total of 651 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 130 million yuan per day [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially breaking through $4050/oz with a daily increase of 0.14%, followed by a rapid decline, losing key support levels at $4040, $4030, $4020, and $4010/oz, with a maximum daily drop of 1.87% [1][2] - New York futures gold also saw fluctuations, dropping from above $4050/oz (with a daily decrease of 0.55%) to below $4030/oz, with a maximum daily decline of 2.07% [3][4] - Goldman Sachs indicated that central banks may significantly purchase gold in November, predicting gold prices could rise to $4900/oz by the end of 2026 [6] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - Goldman Sachs adjusted its outlook for oil prices, forecasting average prices for Brent and WTI crude oil to drop to $56/barrel and $52/barrel by 2026, respectively, due to strong global supply (excluding Russia), leading to a significant surplus of 2 million barrels per day [7] - However, it is expected that oil prices will rebound to long-term target levels of $80/barrel for Brent and $76/barrel for WTI by the end of 2028 [8] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - Federal Reserve official Waller signaled a key policy direction, supporting a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting, while expressing caution about a 50 basis point cut, noting that a 25 basis point reduction would not restore employment growth to previous levels [9][10][11] - It was also noted that U.S. GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 [12] - In the U.S. stock market, major indices closed lower, with the Dow down 1.18%, Nasdaq down 0.84%, and S&P down 0.91%, while many popular Chinese concept stocks fell significantly, with Xpeng down over 10% and Manbang down over 11% [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that central banks may have purchased a significant amount of gold in November as part of a long-term trend to diversify reserves against geopolitical and financial risks [1] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its expectation that gold prices will reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, with potential for further increases if private investors continue to diversify their portfolios [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 55%, driven by economic and geopolitical concerns, increased inflows into exchange-traded funds, and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, up from 21 tons in August [1]

过去三年，央行增持已成为推动金价飙升的关键动力。现货金价今年曾在10月突破每盎司4380美元的历 史高位，尽管近几周有所回落，截至本周一仍约报4068美元，年内累计上涨达55%。推动因素包括全球 经济及地缘政治不确定性升温、黄金ETF流入增加，以及市场押注美联储进一步降息。 高盛在报告中强调，央行"持续且高企"的购金行为将是未来数年黄金市场的核心支撑力量。该行维持此 前预测，即2024年第四季度至2026年，全球央行平均每月净购金将维持在约80吨水平。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛集团最新报告显示，在夏季购金淡季结束后，全球央行正重新加速买入黄金， 中国央行在9月向外汇储备新增约15吨黄金，推动全球官方部门当月购金规模大幅回升。 根据高盛分析师Lina Thomas等人的估算，全球央行9月合计购金约64吨，较8月的21吨增加逾三倍。该 行指出，强劲的购金势头很可能延续至11月，反映出央行持续多元化储备、对冲地缘政治及金融风险的 长期趋势。 高盛表示，随着央行购金态势延续、投资需求增强，以及美联储货币政策转向宽松，黄金在未来几年将 继续作为全球金融体系中的关键避险资产保持强势。 在此背景下，高盛重申金价将在2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley defines 2026 as the "Year of Risk Reboot," expecting a shift in market focus from macro uncertainties to micro fundamentals, driven by a rare combination of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies alongside an AI investment cycle, leading to strong corporate earnings growth and a projected S&P 500 index rise to 7800 points, approximately 15% higher than current levels [1][3]. Policy Environment - The report highlights a unique "policy triumvirate" consisting of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and regulatory relaxation, which will work in a pro-cyclical manner, creating a favorable environment for risk assets [6][9]. - Fiscal policy is expected to provide significant corporate tax cuts amounting to $129 billion through the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)" in 2026-27 [6]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, easing financial conditions [7]. - Regulatory relaxation will prioritize easing regulations, particularly in the energy and financial sectors [8]. AI Investment Cycle - AI-related capital expenditures are projected to be long-term and less affected by business cycle fluctuations, with an estimated total of nearly $3 trillion in data center-related capital expenditures, of which less than 20% has been deployed [11]. - A financing gap of up to $1.5 trillion is expected, necessitating various credit channels to fill this gap [12][14]. - The demand for high-quality credit products remains strong, but the significant supply pressure is likely to lead to a mild widening of credit spreads for investment-grade bonds [13]. Equity Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 index will outperform other global markets, driven by strong earnings growth, AI-driven efficiency improvements, and a favorable policy environment [15]. - The forecast for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) is $272 for 2025 (12% growth), $317 for 2026 (17% growth), and $356 for 2027 (12% growth), supported by improved pricing power, AI efficiency, and stable interest rates [16]. Fixed Income Market - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to experience significant "bull steepening" in the first half of 2026, with short-term rates declining sharply due to Fed rate cuts [23][24]. - The report anticipates a 60% increase in net issuance of U.S. investment-grade bonds, primarily driven by AI and data center financing needs, leading to wider credit spreads [30]. Commodity Market - Morgan Stanley favors metals over energy in the commodities sector, with gold being the top choice, setting a target price of $4500 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of about 9% [33]. - The supply of copper is expected to face challenges, leading to a projected price of $10,600 per ton in 2026 due to mining disruptions [36]. - The outlook for the energy market is less favorable, with Brent crude oil prices expected to remain around $60 per barrel due to weak demand and high non-OPEC supply [36].