Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market recently experienced significant volatility, with gold futures dropping over 11% and silver futures plummeting by 31.37%, marking the worst single-day performance since March 1980. This decline followed a bullish trend in precious metals, prompting warnings from prominent investors about potential risks [2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On January 28, a notable private equity figure, Dan Bin, warned of a potential market correction following a surge in prices, referencing historical data where gold and silver experienced drastic declines after reaching peak prices in 1980 and 2011, respectively [2]. - Dan Bin has been heavily invested in U.S. AI technology stocks and has shown little interest in gold stocks, leading to skepticism about his warnings regarding gold. He clarified that his lack of investment in gold does not influence his perspective [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Dan Bin's management of 77 private equity products has yielded an average return of ***% for 2025, with a three-year average return of ***%, placing him at the top among private equity founders in the last three years [4]. - The latest disclosures of Dan Bin's fund, Dongfang Gangwan, revealed a total holding of 10 U.S. stocks valued at approximately $1.316 billion, equivalent to over 9.1 billion RMB, with Google surpassing Nvidia as the largest holding [5][6].

（本文作者付一夫为苏商银行特约研究员） 日前，美国元首宣布提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席，而就在消息公布当天，全球资本市场迎来 巨震，其中美股指集体下挫，贵金属价格出现史诗级暴跌，而美元和美债利率却迎来反弹。 事实上，美联储主席的更迭历来都是全球经济格局中的重要事件。在当前全球经济面临高通胀、金融条 件收紧以及地缘政治紧张的关键时期，沃什的上任更加受到市场关注。作为前美联储理事、斯坦福大学 胡佛研究所研究员以及拥有丰富华尔街经验的决策者，沃什的货币政策理念和领导风格很可能会显著影 响美联储的政策走向，进而通过复杂的全球传导机制对美国和中国两大经济体产生深远影响。 基于上述背景，本文将系统分析沃什上任后可能的政策转向，继而评估这些变化对中美经济与金融市场 的潜在影响。 一、沃什的从业经历与政策倾向 了解凯文·沃什的职业经历与政策立场，是研判一切问题的原点。 不同于鲍威尔的务实风格，沃什以"鹰派底色+务实灵活"的双重特征著称，其横跨政府、金融、学术三 大领域的丰富履历，使其既深谙政策制定的政治逻辑，又具备金融市场的实操视野，更拥有学术研究的 战略格局，这种多元背景也使其成为美国元首平衡"政策可预期性"与"央行 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has launched a $12 billion critical mineral reserve program, named "Project Vault," aimed at establishing a national strategic reserve to mitigate supply chain risks [7][8] - The initiative is designed to reduce U.S. dependence on China for rare earths and other metals, which are essential for industries such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense [7][8] - The project integrates $1.67 billion in private capital with $10 billion in loans from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to support manufacturers in procuring critical minerals [7][9] Industry Impact - The program highlights the U.S. government's commitment to securing critical mineral supplies across key sectors, including automotive, aerospace, and energy, reflecting a strategic shift to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [8][9] - Over a dozen companies, including General Motors, Boeing, Corning, and Google, have already participated in the project, indicating strong industry interest and collaboration [8][9] - The initiative is expected to stabilize market prices for critical minerals by allowing companies to procure minerals at fixed prices, thus mitigating the impact of price volatility [10] Operational Mechanism - Participating companies must commit to purchasing minerals at agreed prices and pay a prepayment fee, after which they can submit a priority procurement list to the program [9][10] - The program allows companies to withdraw minerals from the reserve but requires them to replenish their inventory, ensuring a continuous supply chain [10] - The design of the program aims to create a stabilizing effect on the market, helping to smooth out price fluctuations for critical minerals [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to regain its position as the largest in the world by 2025, with an average first-day return of nearly 40%, making it an attractive option for investors [1][12]. Group 1: Market Recovery - The rapid recovery of the Hong Kong IPO market is attributed to institutional optimization and liquidity easing, with domestic companies still seeking financing [2][18]. - The "A+H" listing mechanism and the specialized technology enterprise channel have lowered the barriers for companies to list in Hong Kong, enhancing the listing willingness [2][18]. - The expected IPO financing scale for the main board in 2026 is around HKD 310 billion, reflecting a 10% increase from 2025 [27]. Group 2: IPO Characteristics - The Hong Kong IPO system operates under a registration-based model, typically taking six months to a year from preparation to listing [3][29]. - Unique mechanisms include international placement dominating the issuance structure, a mechanism to balance institutional and public demand, and green and red shoe mechanisms to stabilize the market and protect small investors [3][36][39]. Group 3: Participation Methods - There are three main ways to participate in Hong Kong IPOs: cornerstone, anchor, and public offerings, each with varying levels of legal protection, allocation certainty, and liquidity [4][48]. - Cornerstone investors engage early and have legally protected shares but face a lock-up period, making it suitable for long-term investors [4][48]. - Anchor investors have more flexibility without a lock-up period but face uncertainty in allocation, while public investors typically have the least allocation certainty [4][48][51]. Group 4: Project Selection - Key decision-making dimensions for cornerstone investments include market trend analysis and company quality assessment, with a focus on business synergy and asset scarcity [5][59]. - A quantitative model has been developed to help reduce the probability of investing in projects that may break even, with selected projects showing higher opening gains [5][12]. Group 5: Investor Recommendations - Long-term investors are advised to participate as cornerstone investors to secure shares [6]. - Anchor investors should engage early with issuers and intermediaries for better information access [8]. - Retail investors are encouraged to diversify their investments across multiple feasible projects rather than concentrating on a single IPO [9][10].

2月3日， 港股科技股大幅震荡，恒生科技指数一度跌超3%，腾讯控股一度跌超6%，随后跌幅有所收 窄。截至11时49分，腾讯控股跌3.09%，报580港元/股。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Sensex index opened up by 4.5%, reaching 85,323.20 points, with all sectors experiencing gains. A trade agreement between the U.S. and India has been reached, which includes a reduction in tariffs and increased oil purchases from the U.S. and potentially Venezuela [1]. Group 1: Trade Agreement - The U.S. has agreed to lower tariffs on India from 25% to 18% as part of a new trade agreement [1]. - India is set to reduce its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods to zero [1]. - The agreement includes a commitment from India to significantly increase its purchases of U.S. goods, including energy, technology, agricultural products, and coal, with a total value exceeding $500 billion [1]. Group 2: Oil Purchases - Indian Prime Minister Modi has agreed to stop purchasing oil from Russia and to increase oil imports from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela [1]. - This shift in oil purchasing strategy is part of the broader trade discussions between the U.S. and India [1]. Group 3: Market Reaction - The positive news regarding the trade agreement and oil purchases has led to a significant increase in the Indian stock market, with the Sensex index reflecting a strong upward trend [1].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1][5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 3.36%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.54% [1][5] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion [1][5] U.S. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 500 points, closing up 1.05% at 49,407.66 points [2] - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also recorded increases of 0.56% and 0.54%, respectively [2] - Over 100 companies in the S&P 500 are set to report earnings this week, including major players like Amazon and Alphabet [2] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for long-term growth in sectors supported by the "self-reliance in technology" policy, particularly in AI applications, semiconductors, and industrial software [3] - The infrastructure and copper mining sectors, particularly China Railway (0390.HK), are noted for their recent performance, with a weekly increase of 11.0% before a slight pullback [3] - The report suggests continued focus on sectors benefiting from domestic consumption policies, including sports apparel and non-essential services [3] Key Company Insights - China Telecom (0763.HK) is recognized for its comprehensive product line and solutions in the telecommunications sector, despite a slight decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [10] - The company maintains a high gross margin of 37.91% and is expected to leverage its advancements in computing power to sustain competitive advantages [10] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 7.98 billion and 8.81 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its earnings potential [10] Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of the low-altitude economy, with a guideline established for its standardization by 2027, which is expected to drive demand in this sector [9] - Companies like AVIC (2357.HK) and ZTE (0763.HK) are recommended for their potential in the low-altitude economy [9] - The report also notes the government's initiatives to boost consumer spending during the Spring Festival, which may benefit companies in the automotive and home appliance sectors [9]

摘要今日周二(2月3日)亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1073.32元/克，较前一交易日上涨33.58元，涨幅 3.16%，日内呈现强势走高走势。当日开盘价报1042.24元/克，盘中最高触及1083.39元/克，最低下探至 1040.90元/克。 今日周二(2月3日)亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1073.32元/克，较前一交易日上涨33.58元，涨幅 3.16%，日内呈现强势走高走势。当日开盘价报1042.24元/克，盘中最高触及1083.39元/克，最低下探至 1040.90元/克。 【要闻速递】 外媒报道，特朗普拟启动"金库计划"，初始资金120亿美元，旨在助美国制造商抵御供应链冲击、降低 稀土等关键矿产对外依赖。该计划整合16.7亿美元私人资本与美国进出口银行100亿美元贷款，为汽 车、科技等企业储备镓、钴等战略矿产(广泛用于手机、电池、发动机等领域)。 这是美国私营领域首个此类储备计划，运作逻辑类似国家石油储备，但标的为关键矿产。目前通用汽 车、波音、谷歌母公司等十余家企业，及三家大宗商品贸易商已参与，负责采购充库。美国进出口银行 周一晚将投票批准15年期贷款(规模为该行第二大交易两倍多)，特朗普同日会见 ...

2月3日，港股集体高开，其中恒生指数涨0.82%报26995.76点，恒生科技指数涨0.68%报5563.79点，国 企指数涨0.59%报9133.88点，红筹指数涨0.33%报4259.27点。 招商局置地(00978.HK)：2025年合同销售总额约为323.08亿元，同比减少23.91%。 蓝河控股(00498.HK)：与能储投公司订立合作框架协议。 中兴通讯(00763.HK)：拟出资1.17亿元认购建兴湛卢基金份额，可投资扶持更大范围的创新业务及上下 游产业链企业。 云工场(02512.HK)：附属中标人工智能产业基地二期项目，合约价值为人民币5.2亿元。 小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK)：1月共交付新车20011辆。 拉近网娱(08172.HK)：附属拉近众博获蚂蚁云通授权为"蚂蚁百宝箱官方合作服务商"。 骏东控股(08277.HK)：附属河北林木与金达林业订立木材采伐及销售协议。 环球医疗(02666.HK)：附属拟发行本金总额不超过10亿元公司债。 君圣泰医药（核心股）-B(02511.HK)：任命Filip Surmont博士为首席医学官，强化心肾代谢系统疾病 (CKM)布局。 盘面上，大型 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term economic downward pressure has eased, and the market risk preference has recovered. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [15]. - Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The market is still digesting the negative impact of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage [13]. - A - shares had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. - For commodities, different varieties have different trends. For example, palm oil exports increased, and the inventory decreased; iron ore supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; coal prices are expected to be strong in February; and the prices of some energy - chemical products such as crude oil and asphalt are affected by geopolitical and market factors [37][34][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022, with an expected 48.5 and a previous value of 47.9. Fed Bostic expects no rate cuts in 2026. Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline, and the adjustment pressure of silver is greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will rise [11][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump called on Republicans to take control of the election process from the states. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was the highest since February 2022, which led to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations. Oracle launched a $25 billion bond issuance. The US government shutdown postponed the release of the January employment report. It is expected that the US stock market will maintain high - level volatility [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan on the day. The performance of treasury bond futures was slightly weak. It is recommended to moderately pay attention to the opportunity of shorting T [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - 276 steel enterprises completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. The 2 - month auto market will enter a stage of adjustment. Steel prices followed the decline of peripheral metals. The inventory of building materials has increased significantly, and the demand has weakened seasonally. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset, and the short - term decline space is expected to be limited [27][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On February 2, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. With the approach of the festival, the supply has shrunk, and some terminal enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the coal price to a certain extent. It is expected that the coal price will be strong in February, and attention should be paid to the temperature and new energy power generation in February [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The construction of the port and railway in Baffin Island was approved to support the expansion plan of Mary River Mine. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, and the demand is temporarily static. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of January 30, 2026, the domestic palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.51%. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31 increased by 17.93% month - on - month. After the macro - sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be continued to be arranged [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slightly faster than that of the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased. It is expected that the domestic and foreign futures prices will maintain a weak - oscillatory trend [38][40]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian copper. The copper price has dropped significantly due to the decline of precious metals. In the short term, the volatility is still relatively large. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [41][42][44]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the social inventory will increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see in the short - term and pay attention to the medium - term long - position opportunity [45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has dropped significantly. The domestic inventory has increased seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see temporarily and manage positions well [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the supply concentration is high. The short - term tin price is expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the supply recovery expectation and the improvement of consumption [51][52]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran said it was willing to close or suspend its nuclear program. Trump reached a trade agreement with India. The oil price has dropped significantly. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation [53][55]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. The short - term asphalt price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on whether there are sudden changes in the geopolitical situation [57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran hopes to avoid war with the US through diplomatic efforts. It is recommended to short the methanol 05 contract, with a stop - profit point of 2183 yuan/ton, and aggressive investors can lower the stop - profit to the previous box area of 2120 - 2150 yuan/ton [58][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has changed. The short - term styrene market has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait - and - see and reduce the risk exposure before the Spring Festival [61][63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory situation has not changed. The short - term rebound height of caustic soda is expected to be limited, and the disk may be under pressure again [64][65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the transaction is not good. The PVC market is under supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The current rise is mainly due to policy expectations, and the upward rebound height should not be overly optimistic, but it may still be relatively strong in the short - term under the catalysis of sentiment [66][67].