Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of "rolling layoffs" in the U.S. job market, highlighting the shift from large-scale layoffs to more frequent, smaller layoffs, which has created a pervasive sense of anxiety among white-collar workers [1][5][15]. Group 1: Layoff Trends - As of November 2025, U.S. companies have announced layoffs affecting 1.1 million workers, marking the sixth time this level has been surpassed since 1993 [1][3]. - The technology sector has been the hardest hit, with over 150,000 layoffs in 2025, while other industries like telecommunications, food, retail, and media have also experienced significant layoffs, some with year-on-year increases exceeding 100% [3][5]. - The cumulative layoffs for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 1.1708 million, a 54% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with November alone seeing 71,300 layoffs, the highest for that month since 2022 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Signals - The current economic landscape presents contradictory signals, with a "rolling recession" followed by a potential "rolling recovery" starting in April 2025, according to Morgan Stanley analysts [5]. - However, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America argue that the recovery is primarily financial, with stock prices and profits rising while demand for white-collar jobs continues to decline [5][15]. - The phenomenon of "K-shaped economy" is evident, where the wealthiest 10% contribute nearly half of consumer spending, while lower-income individuals face increasing financial strain [5][15]. Group 3: Employment Market Dynamics - The shift to "permanent layoffs" has seen small-scale layoffs (affecting fewer than 50 employees) rise to over half of all layoffs in 2025, compared to less than half in the mid-2010s [6][8]. - This new model allows companies to adjust workforce sizes continuously without the reputational damage associated with large-scale layoffs, but it leads to chronic internal issues such as increased workloads and diminished job security [6][8]. - Job seekers' bargaining power has decreased, with the "job rejection rate" declining for two consecutive years, forcing many to accept less desirable positions [9][12]. Group 4: Structural Challenges - Recruitment demand has also weakened, with companies planning to hire only 497,200 workers in the first 11 months of 2025, a 35% drop from the previous year, marking the lowest level since 2010 [12]. - The labor market exhibits a "K-shaped structure," where large companies are expanding due to cash flow advantages while small businesses are contracting under cost pressures [12][15]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on job cuts is significant, with over 70,000 positions attributed to AI since 2023, prompting a reevaluation of automation risks and transformation paths in various industries [14][15].

Core Insights - The "Three New" consumption strategy is identified as a key driver for economic growth in Weifang, particularly during the winter-spring peak consumption season [1][9] - A series of promotional activities and innovative consumer experiences are being launched to stimulate market vitality and enhance consumer engagement [8][9] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "Three New" consumption initiative focuses on new business formats, new scenarios, and new supply, aiming to unlock diverse consumer experiences and enhance the city's appeal [5][6] - The event showcased innovative products such as rehabilitation robots and AR/XR technologies, highlighting the strength of Weifang's consumer supply capabilities [3][5] Group 2: Seasonal Activities and Events - Weifang is organizing 130 key activities, including 70 "Three New" promotional events and 60 major consumption promotion activities, targeting various sectors like ice and snow economy, silver economy, and digital experiences [8][9] - The activities are designed to align with important consumption periods such as New Year's Day, Spring Festival, and Lantern Festival, ensuring a continuous engagement with consumers [8] Group 3: Local Products and Innovations - Local products such as high-quality down jackets, health food items, and unique agricultural products are being highlighted to meet diverse consumer needs [6] - The introduction of locally developed virtual reality devices and smart robots is expected to inject fresh vitality into the consumer market [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the next major economic opportunity will be driven by AI, contrasting it with the previous two decades dominated by real estate [11][12] - It highlights the importance of individuals connecting with AI to benefit from this new trend, suggesting that those who can leverage AI will have a significant advantage [12][14] Group 1: Economic Trends - The past two decades saw wealth accumulation linked to real estate, with various sectors benefiting from this trend [9] - The article posits that AI will surpass real estate in terms of economic impact over the next twenty years, marking a significant shift in wealth generation [11] - The disparity between individuals will increasingly depend on their ability to engage with AI, either by using it or investing in it [12][18] Group 2: AI Utilization - Companies that effectively integrate AI into their operations can achieve unprecedented efficiency, as demonstrated by the practices of Supertrends, which utilizes AI to analyze vast amounts of data [15][17] - The article suggests that the ability to use AI will determine job security and future prospects for individuals, making it essential for professionals to adopt AI tools in their work [20] - Ordinary individuals are encouraged to find ways to incorporate AI into their roles to enhance productivity and outcomes [20] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article discusses the potential for small teams to create billion-dollar companies by leveraging AI, which democratizes access to capabilities previously reserved for larger firms [24][26] - It emphasizes that the efficiency gains from using AI can lead to significant shifts in industry dynamics, making it a critical area for investment and innovation [26] - The author recommends reading works by thought leaders like Lars to understand the structural changes in the economy driven by AI [22]

记者 洪俊杰 此次论坛以"科技改变生活"为主题，将通过交流研讨，推动两市在科技医疗、轨道交通、健康养老 等方面的经验分享和互动交流。论坛期间，两市将签署有关交流合作备忘录，进一步深化上海与台北两 市各领域的交流与合作。 "双城论坛"自2010年开始由上海市与台北市轮流举办，是两市之间重要的机制化交流平台，有利于 增强两岸同胞亲情福祉，推动两岸关系和平发展。两市深入探讨和交流城市发展经验，巩固和拓展各个 领域的合作，取得了积极成果。迄今为止双方已经签订了47项交流合作备忘录。 经上海与台北两市有关方面商定，"2025上海台北城市论坛"将于12月28日在上海举行。 ...

周五（12月12日），半导体ETF收跌4.53%，全球科技股指数ETF跌2.92%，科技行业ETF跌2.89%，网 络股指数ETF跌1.36%，能源业ETF跌0.91%，可选消费ETF则收涨0.43%，日常消费品ETF涨0.79%。本 周，银行业ETF累计上涨3.58%，在利率趋势带动下，于"美联储降息当周"实现连续第四周上涨；半导 体指数累跌2.83%。 ...

当地时间12月12日（周五），美股三大股指走势分化，道指创下历史新高。截至发稿，道指涨0.24%，标普500指数跌0.08%，纳指跌0.3%。 | 口 △ 田 (0) | 价格 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 48819.15 | +0.24% | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6895.48 | -0.08% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 23523.63 | -0.30% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | | | | | 7831.94 | +0.75% | 消息面上，周五，多位美联储官员发声。美联储施密德表示，劳动力市场正在降温，但仍基本保持平衡；通胀仍过高，经济呈现增长势头，希望保持货币 政策适度限制性。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他之所以在本周投下反对票，是因为他希望等待更多经济数据，以确定关税对通胀的影响是否只是暂时的。就2026年降息 幅度预期而言，降息次数将多于中值预测。 美国克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示，美联储在获得新数据后将拥有更好的可见度。"我倾向于采取略微更具限 ...

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出今年我国经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。这一年，中国经济有哪些亮眼表现？如何看待当前经 济形势？专家对此进行了解读。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任 邹蕴涵：今年以来，全球经济增长持续放缓，我国经济总体保持了平稳的发展态势，各方的积极性、主动 性充分调动，各类宏观政策持续加力显效，共同推动经济的内生增长动力不断壮大，全年的各项指标将顺利完成，我国的经济高质量发展迈出了坚实的步 伐。 会议用"五个必须"科学总结了做好新形势下经济工作新的认识和体会，并提出我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，要坚定信心、用好优势、 应对挑战，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任 邹蕴涵：会议实际上毫不讳言地直面我们当前面对的非常突出的矛盾，比如说我们经济里边供强虚弱的问 题，并且对这些问题做出了非常准确的判断和认识，来有的放矢解决这些问题。同时还有一系列非常突出的优势和长处，包括超大规模的市场优势，是我们 未来发展的底气和支柱所在。 中央经济工作会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年，我国经济顶压前行，向新向优发展，现代化产 ...

前言 美联储又"整活"了，联邦基金利率再降25个基点。 但与市场狂欢形成鲜明对比的是，美联储内部吵翻天，特朗普甚至要求降息"翻倍"。 这看似利好的全球大放水，背后却藏着2008年QE和2013年亚洲危机的历史回响。 编辑:AJY 美联储深夜摊牌 12月10日深夜，华盛顿美联储总部的灯光亮到了凌晨，一场关乎全球钱袋子的博弈正在上演。 当鲍威尔走出新闻发布会现场时，他手中那份25个基点的降息决议，早已通过卫星信号传遍了世界每一 个交易室。 这场被市场称为"鹰派宽松"的政策变动，不仅给美国经济打了一针强心剂，更像一颗投入全球金融池的 深水炸弹，激起的涟漪正朝着中国方向扩散。 更戏剧性的是，这次25个基点的降息，竟是美联储内部37年来最激烈的一次博弈，会议室内，鸽派委员 米兰甚至拍着桌子主张直接降息50个基点，他手里的就业数据报告上，几个关键行业的招聘人数正逐月 下滑。 而鹰派代表施密德则反复强调，通胀数据还没到放松的地步，过早降息会让之前的控通胀努力前功尽 弃，7票反对的声音，让鲍威尔的最终决议显得格外沉重。 最危险的信号出现在短期融资市场，SOFR利率连续三个月冲破政策上限，这意味着银行之间都开始互 相"惜贷"， ...

12月12日，港股科技股集体走强，截至早盘收盘，商汤-W、地平线机器人涨超4%，小米集团-W、理想 汽车-W、中兴通讯等涨超2%，小米集团-W、阿里巴巴-W涨超1%。港股通科技ETF招商（159125）早 盘收涨1.41%，盘中一度涨超1.7%。 消息面上，据证券时报，自11月以来，港股市场正在掀起新一轮回购潮，龙头科技公司回购活跃，引领 本轮港股回购潮。根据Wind数据统计，11月，港股市场上市公司累计回购股份数量突破7亿股，较前期 出现显著增长。自11月以来，港股市场回购金额居前两位的公司主要被腾讯控股和小米集团两家龙头科 技公司"霸榜"。 从规模上看，此轮腾讯控股单日回购股份数量每个交易日均超过100万股，单日回购金额均超过6.3亿港 元，明显高于上一轮回购期间日均约80万股、约5.5亿港元的水平。11月下旬至今，小米集团回购金额 合计已超29亿港元，超过其2025年以来回购总金额的一半，表明小米集团近期回购力度明显增强。 中银国际指出，面对日益复杂严峻的外部环境，2026年宏观政策将持续发力、适时加力。当前港股市场 估值水平仍具有吸引力。重点投资机会方面，壮大实体经济、推动科技创新、发展新质生产力和扩 ...

乌克兰方向的消息令避险需求出现微调。泽连斯基与美国官员讨论修订后的20点和平框架，若未来取得 明显进展，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力将受到部分挤压，使上方空间承压。 周四美股整体保持稳健，但科技板块受博通与甲骨文回调影响表现偏弱。标普500与道指保持创新高态 势，而纳指在大型科技股承压之下录得小幅回落。投资者对流动性环境维持乐观，但AI板块盈利兑现 节奏仍具不确定性，使科技股的波动更加突出。 黄金仍处于上行结构，关注4245至4250美元压力带，以及4200美元作为关键支撑。若金价在政策面与流 动性改善的共同作用下有效企稳4250美元上方，下方目标区间或延伸至4277至4300美元。若科技股带动 风险偏好修复或乌克兰局势趋稳，则需观察金价在4200至4170美元支撑带的承接强度。短线节奏依旧围 绕利率定价、事件变量与流动性变化展开。 美联储周三以微弱多数通过25个基点降息，将联邦基金利率区间压至3.50至3.75，为近三年来最低。决 议公布后美元回落，黄金持仓成本相应下降，推动金价突破4250美元成为顺势反应。美国初请失业金人 数录得四年半以来最大增幅，使市场更坚定对未来宽松路径的判断，从而进一步弱化美元的短期支 ...