Group 1 - The ecological system of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is diverse yet fragile, necessitating a focus on ecological protection and maximizing ecological functions [3][4][5] - Qinghai is a resource-rich province with significant responsibilities for national ecological security and sustainable development, particularly in protecting the source of the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang rivers [4][6] - The development of circular economy is essential for improving resource utilization efficiency while maintaining ecological balance, particularly in the context of salt lake resource development [10][11] Group 2 - The Chaka Salt Lake is a major strategic resource for Qinghai, with a total area of 5,856 square kilometers and a total salt resource reserve of 60 billion tons, making it the largest salt lake in China [10][11] - Qinghai's potassium fertilizer production is projected to reach 7.49 million tons in 2024, reflecting a growth of 4.8%, while lithium carbonate production is expected to reach 135,000 tons, a 22.3% increase [12] - The Maerdang Hydropower Station has implemented fish passage devices to protect biodiversity and has released 310,000 fish since its construction, contributing to the ecological balance of the Yellow River basin [12] Group 3 - The development of the circular economy in Qinghai includes various industries such as salt lake chemicals, oil and gas chemicals, and new materials, all emphasizing low carbon emissions [16] - The establishment of a zero-carbon industry park in Golmud is aimed at enhancing the green development of the local economy, with a focus on wind and solar energy solutions [17] - The integration of advanced technologies in the lead smelting project in the Chaka Salt Lake area demonstrates a commitment to environmental protection and resource recycling [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the U.S. stock market and the commodity market, highlighting the strong performance of gold and other precious metals amid rising risk aversion and uncertainty in global economic policies, particularly due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal measures [1][11][14]. Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,271.90, reaching a high of $3,365.39 and a low of $3,247.11, closing at $3,335.00, an increase of $61.61 or 1.88% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index opened at 97.21, peaked at 97.42, and closed at 96.98, down 0.26% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6,719.49 points, closing at 6,866.84 points, up 2.14% and reaching a historical high [3]. - Silver prices rose by 2.60%, platinum by 3.81%, and palladium by 0.26% [3]. Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones index increased by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.62%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72%, indicating strong performance in the U.S. stock market [6][8]. - The article notes a significant divide in market sentiment, with both risk aversion and risk preference appearing to strengthen [6]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The demand for safe-haven assets has boosted the performance of precious metals, with overall gains exceeding 2% and silver prices reaching a 13-year high [7]. - In contrast, the commodity market, particularly basic metals, has shown weaker performance, indicating a lack of clear direction [9]. Economic and Policy Implications - The article highlights concerns from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regarding the impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies on global economic uncertainty and inflation risks [11]. - A UBS survey indicates a rising trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with 52% planning to do so in the next year, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [12]. - The IMF warns that Trump's fiscal policies could exacerbate the U.S. deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis [13]. Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current hesitation in the commodity market may not last long, with potential upward trends if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken [19]. - Observations of the NYMEX crude oil prices indicate a possible bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, supported by technical indicators [21][23]. - The article concludes that the macroeconomic environment remains complex, with potential implications for inflation and commodity demand [14][15].

Group 1 - International copper futures fell by 0.36% in the night session, while Shanghai copper dropped by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.17%, and Shanghai zinc saw a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - Shanghai lead increased by 0.26%, and Shanghai nickel rose by 0.86% [1] - Shanghai tin experienced a marginal increase of 0.04% [1] - Alumina futures fell by 0.07% during the night session [1] - Stainless steel futures rose by 0.71% in the night session [1]

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.3 万人，自 2023 年 3 月以来首次负增长，预 期为增长 9.8 万人，5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加 2.9 万人。服务业就业在 6 月份减少 6.6 万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情以来的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全 消化美联储 9 月降息预期。证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化股债融 资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢 记我国资本市场中小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保护制度体系。 深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好 资本市场自主开放重点举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任 务，推动健全常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域 风险。央行近日发文明确，客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币 10 万元以上（含 10 万元）现金交易的，贵金属和宝石交易从业机构应当履行反洗钱义务进行上 报，但刷卡消费不受影响。多位专家对此表示，该消息与百姓日常买金关系不 大。 重点品种： ...

Group 1 - Copper prices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai copper main contract closing above 80,000, driven by external market influences [1] - The Caixin PMI data returned above 50, indicating economic expansion, while the deadline for tariff negotiations between multiple countries and the US approaches [1] - The Federal Reserve's Powell expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, although a potential cut in July remains on the table [1] Group 2 - Antofagasta's mid-year smelting processing fee is at 0 yuan/ton, better than market expectations of negative values, but still the lowest in history, indicating ongoing tight supply expectations [1] - Overall demand remains cautious due to overseas macroeconomic concerns and domestic seasonal factors, despite low inventory levels providing short-term support [1] - LME inventory has stopped declining, and while spot premiums have slightly decreased, they remain high, indicating a need to monitor market sentiment [1] Group 3 - Aluminum prices fluctuated at low levels, with Shanghai aluminum showing strength due to the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - Despite concerns over future ore supply tightness, stable import ore prices and high inventory levels limit short-term impacts on alumina prices [1] - The overall surplus in the alumina market remains unchanged, with clear downward pressure, but low valuations suggest opportunities for short selling at high prices [1] Group 4 - Nickel prices saw slight gains in the night session, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] - Nickel smelting is experiencing reduced capacity expansion due to losses, but the surplus situation is unlikely to improve in the short term [1] - Seasonal recovery in ore supply is weakening support for nickel ore prices, leading to a range-bound trading pattern for nickel prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is improving, especially in the black sector, due to the non - appearance of expected significant demand data decline, high - level hot metal production, rising overseas expectations for a July interest rate cut, and potential progress in Sino - US tariff issues [34]. - For most commodities, although short - term market sentiment may drive price rebounds, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, with concerns about demand weakening, supply overcapacity, and potential cost reductions [34][35][38]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, ChiNext up 1.35%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1517.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.1 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long IF index futures contracts on dips and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The yields of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. The economic data in June showed some improvement, and the central bank maintained liquidity injection. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose. The US economic data was weak, increasing market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy to loosen. It is recommended to hold a long - term view on silver prices and expect gold prices to be weak. The operating range of Shanghai gold is 732 - 786 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8561 - 9075 yuan/kilogram [8][10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased slightly. The copper price may continue to rise in the short term but the upward momentum may weaken, with the operating range of Shanghai copper at 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton and LME copper at 9750 - 10000 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price was relatively firm. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory was at a low level. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the operating range of the domestic main contract at 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at 2560 - 2620 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore supply is high, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. A strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may disturb the market sentiment. The LME Cash - 3S structure is rising, which supports the zinc price [15][16]. - **Lead**: The lead price was strong. The primary lead supply is high, the recycled lead supply is tight, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises is improving. The LME lead 7 - month contract has a high concentration of long - positions, and the Cash - 3S structure is strengthening. However, the weak domestic consumption may limit the increase of Shanghai lead [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of Shanghai nickel at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel at 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is expected to decrease. The terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [19][20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased. The production is at a historical high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of the price, with the operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2509 contract at 61200 - 63000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 at 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price was weak. The supply is high, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of the premium of the futures over the spot [24]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was volatile. The supply decreased, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [28][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price fell slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The demand for glass is weak, and the supply of soda ash is in surplus. Both are expected to be weakly volatile [30]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. Although the short - term market sentiment may drive a rebound, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for hedging opportunities [31][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait for hedging opportunities during the rebound [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy [40][41][42]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price fell, and the Brent crude oil price rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has reached a reasonable range. It is advisable to hold short positions but not to short further [43]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price fell. The inventory is low, and the demand is short - term stable. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Urea**: The urea price fell. The production decreased, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be range - bound [45]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be volatile and bearish. The cost is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price fell. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to be under pressure [48]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are both expected to weaken, and the inventory is expected to decrease slowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [49]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50][51]. - **Para - xylene**: The PX price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price rose. The short - term supply may be limited, but the demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for long - term contracts [56]. - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply and demand are balanced in the short term. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term and reduce short positions or wait and see in the short term [57]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips at the lower end of the cost range [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oil price fluctuated. The import data is weak, but there are some supportive factors. The oil price is expected to be volatile [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was strong. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, but the import profit and chaotic futures spreads limit the upward space. The sugar price may enter a consolidation phase [63][64]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuated. The US cotton quality is poor, and the domestic supply and demand are stable. The cotton price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows resilience, with GDP maintaining stable growth and consumer market gradually recovering [1]. - The central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and experts expect further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the second half of the year [2][17]. - The stock market rebounds strongly, and high - profile institutions maintain an overweight recommendation for A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [34][35]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, showing stability [1]. - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, with different trends [1]. - Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other indicators showed certain changes in May 2025 [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan [2]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to further loosen, with possible interest rate cuts of up to 30 basis points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of up to 0.5 percentage points [2][17]. - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Most London base metals declined, and international precious metals futures generally fell [5]. - As of mid - June, the prices of aluminum ingots and electrolytic copper increased, while zinc ingot prices decreased [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - June, the prices of coking coal, coke, and rebar all declined [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - CNOOC signed an oil and gas exploration and production contract [7]. - International oil prices dropped significantly due to the easing of the Middle East situation [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - June, the prices of soybeans, cotton, and corn all increased [11]. - Brazil's soybean meal exports in June are expected to reach 1.92 million tons [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 24, the central bank conducted 406.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 209.2 billion yuan [14]. - On June 25, the central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan [14]. 3.3.2 Key News - Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, aiming to boost and expand consumption [15]. - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum opened, and experts expect China's economic growth to remain above 5% in the second half of the year [16]. - Credit bond ETFs' total scale exceeded 200 billion yuan, becoming a rapidly growing segment in the ETF market [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market declined, with yields on major interest - rate bonds rising slightly [23]. - Exchange - traded bonds showed mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate hit a high since November 2024 [28][29]. - The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Some amortized bond funds switched their investment styles from "full - rate" to "full - credit" [30]. - It is recommended to increase the allocation of 3 - 5 - year medium - and high - coupon credit bonds [30]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3400 points [34]. - The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and the southbound capital had net purchases [35]. - High - profile institutions maintain an overweight recommendation for A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].

首先，高昂的能源成本已成为制约澳大利亚冶炼行业发展的最大障碍。澳大利亚的电力价格在过去一年 中急剧上涨，这不仅影响了普通家庭的日常开销，也对能源密集型的冶炼厂造成了毁灭性打击。以铝土 矿和铜等金属冶炼厂为例，电力占其生产成本的比例通常达到50%以上。当电费不断攀升时，冶炼厂不 得不选择削减生产或甚至停产，这直接导致了产能过剩的市场失衡和就业的急剧下降。 与此同时，国际大宗商品价格的波动亦为澳大利亚矿商带来了严峻挑战。近年来，全球经济的不确定性 加剧，大宗商品价格起伏不定，金属价格的波动尤其明显。全球经济放缓，需求减少，直接影响到澳大 利亚的出口收入，矿商的盈利能力进一步下降。在这种背景下，澳大利亚的冶炼行业几乎处于"两头受 夹"的困境：一方面，能源成本不断上升，另一方面，市场需求的减弱使得其产品售价下降。许多冶炼 厂不得不考虑削减成本或停产，这一过程必然会引发大量工人失业，社会不稳定因素也随之增加。 在这场矿业危机中，企业的呼救声逐渐变得更为尖锐。矿商们纷纷要求澳大利亚政府给予经济援助，呼 吁政府减免电费或提供补贴，以帮助他们度过这一困难时刻。然而，政府的回应却充满了犹豫与谨慎。 总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯领导的 ...

文字早评 2025/06/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.65%，创指+0.39%，科创 50+0.38%，北证 50+1.54%，上证 50+0.41%，沪深 300+0.29%， 中证 500+0.61%，中证 1000+1.31%，中证 2000+1.94%，万得微盘+2.54%。两市合计成交 11226 亿，较上 一日+549 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、在美国 22 日空袭伊朗三处核设施后，伊朗议会迅速通过"关闭霍尔木兹海峡"的提案，该海峡是海 湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道，是全球最重要的石油 "咽喉要道"之一。 2、美商务部计划撤销台积电、三星、SK 海力士在华使用美国技术的豁免政策，要求这些企业今后需逐 案申请许可证。 3、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办 关于银行资本的会议。 资金面：融资额-82.33 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.368%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.66bp 至 2.8756%，十年期国债利率-0.20bp 至 1.6387%，信用利差 ...