铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5180 | -50 | -50 | 5480 | 主力合约 | 5472 | -22 | -22 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5200 | -50 | -50 | 5550 | 01合约 | 5440 | -28 | -28 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5200 | -50 | -50 | 5530 | 05合约 | 5572 | -18 | -18 | | | 陕西#72 | 5150 | -50 | -50 | 5450 | 09合约 | 5688 | -18 | -18 | | | 陕西#75 | 6100 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 8 | -28 | -28 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market faces significant destocking pressure due to high supply and insufficient demand, and the futures market may be under pressure [3]. - The iron ore market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals, with short - term prices likely to rise due to demand recovery and supply disruptions [20]. - The coking coal and coke prices may be supported in the short term, but their rebound height depends on the downstream steel market's supply - demand balance [32]. - The ferroalloy market has a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand, and the price increase is restricted [45]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high - level inventory restricting the price [55]. - The glass market has a pattern of strong near - term supply and weak demand, and the price is restricted by high inventory and weak demand [82]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - During the holiday, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was weak, inventory accumulated faster than usual, and the inventory - to - sales ratio reached the highest level in recent years. The hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation was significant. The steel market has a large destocking pressure [3]. - Long - process steel mills still have some profit margins and lack the motivation to cut production voluntarily, while the demand has not improved significantly. The contradiction between high supply and insufficient demand is prominent, and the pressure of negative - feedback production cuts is gradually accumulating [3]. - After the holiday, the raw material replenishment motivation is expected to be weak due to insufficient steel demand [3]. - The prices and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures on October 9, 2025, are presented in detail, showing price changes compared to September 30, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - During the holiday, the iron ore market was stable, with shipments above 30 million tons, and the demand side saw steel mills replenishing stocks as needed. Terminal demand recovered seasonally, and inventory decreased, with the fundamentals improving marginally [20]. - Short - term disturbances may come from the supply side, such as China's request to suspend the purchase of BHP's seaborne cargoes and the accident at Simandou that may delay production [20]. - The price data of iron ore futures contracts on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30 and September 24, 2025 [21]. - The fundamental data of iron ore, including daily average pig iron production, port desilting volume, and inventory, show weekly and monthly changes [26]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which may support prices [32]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coking coal and coke prices depend on the downstream steel market's supply - demand balance [32]. - The price data of coking coal and coke futures and spot on October 9, 2025, are presented, including basis, spreads, and profits [35][36]. Ferroalloy - The ferroalloy supply is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, while the demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, resulting in a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand [45]. - The electricity price in Ningxia has increased, forming a cost - bottom expectation for silicon iron. However, the funds are withdrawing from the market, which restricts price increases [45]. - The daily data of silicon iron and silicon manganese on October 9, 2025, are provided, including basis, spreads, and spot prices [46][48]. Soda Ash - Market sentiment is volatile, increasing the price volatility of soda ash. The second - phase ignition of Yuanxing has started the trial operation, increasing the long - term supply pressure [55]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the alkali plants' high - level inventory has been somewhat relieved [55]. - The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the high - level inventory restricts the price [55]. - The price and spread data of soda ash futures on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30, 2025 [56]. Glass - The glass market has high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream, and weak demand restricts the price. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [82]. - The near - term supply is strong and demand is weak, and the mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei is high, with weak phased replenishment ability [82]. - The price and spread data of glass futures on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30, 2025 [83]. - The daily sales data of glass in different regions from October 2 to 8, 2025, are presented [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies will also affect the market [4]. - The coking coal supply in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and imported coal has room for growth. The current market supply and demand are balanced, and the future coal production regulation policies will support coking coal prices, while the steel demand and profit limit the upside space of raw materials [12]. - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, the current weakening of terminal demand and the increase in supply have put downward pressure on prices [17]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are generally stable, and the price is not suitable for short - selling. For silicomanganese, the supply is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is stable, with cost support [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related News**: The US will impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks from November 1, 2025, and the EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports, which may severely impact the UK steel industry [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar is 3230 yuan (-10), and the price of hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-20). In Beijing, the rebar price is 3160 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Before the holiday, the black sector declined, and during the holiday, steel stocks increased significantly. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. If the demand recovers in October, the price may rise [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related News**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased this week, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed. During the National Day, the price of imported coking coal from Mongolia was stable [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the prices of coking coal and coke were stable. In October, the supply of coking coal is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. In the medium - term, policies will support the price, but the steel demand limits the upside [11][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 1 - 5 spread; for options and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. Iron Ore - **Related News**: The cross - regional population flow during the National Day reached a record high, the US government continued to shut down, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port changed [14][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the Singapore iron ore swap oscillated narrowly. In the third quarter, the global iron ore shipments increased, and the demand was weak in China but high overseas. The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to expect a weak trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct spot - futures reverse arbitrage; for options, it is recommended to use the circuit - breaker cumulative put strategy [18]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related News**: The average operating rate of ferrosilicon in September decreased slightly, and the US government shut down [19][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The supply of silicomanganese decreased slightly but was still high year - on - year, and the demand was stable with cost support [22]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [23].

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5472 | -22 | -270 | 131169 | -61050 | 118081 | 5984 | | SM主力合约 | 5768 | 10 | -148 | 153351 | -23013 | 363849 | 15558 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5300 | -50 | -180 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The trend strength of ferrosilicon is -1, and that of silicomanganese is -1, indicating a weak outlook for both [3]. Group 2: Core Views - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a state of weak oscillation due to the game between fundamentals and macro - sentiment [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5494, down 116 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 192,219 and an open interest of 118,081. Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5468, down 108, with a trading volume of 76,428 and an open interest of 116,050. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5742, down 60, with a trading volume of 79,328 and an open interest of 35,681. Silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5758, down 62, with a trading volume of 176,364 and an open interest of 348,291 [1]. Spot - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 40 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [1]. Spreads - The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 244 yuan/ton, up 66. The basis of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 78 yuan/ton, up 60. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 was 26 yuan/ton, down 8. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 was - 16 yuan/ton, up 2. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 was 248 yuan/ton, up 56. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 was 290 yuan/ton, up 46 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 30, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [1]. - In September, the number of operating ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia was 13, with 43 operating submerged arc furnaces. The开工 rate was 48.86%, up 2.27% from August, and the output was expected to be 12.16 tons, down 0.3 tons from August, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.28%. Nationally, there were 76 operating ferrosilicon enterprises with 245 operating submerged arc furnaces in September. The total average开工 rate was 50.88%, down 1.86% from August, and the output was expected to be 47.88 tons, down 0.05 tons from August, up 1.27 tons from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.72%. The cumulative output from January to September 2025 was 410.7 tons, up 2.26 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 0.55% [1][3]. - In September, the output of silicomanganese in the northern main production areas decreased slightly. The total output of silicomanganese in Ningxia was about 20.7 tons, down 0.75 tons from August, and the output of 6517 was about 19.8 tons [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the National Day holiday, the actual demand for steel continued to be weak, but with the macro - environment turning more accommodative, market expectations for the recovery of steel demand are rising. In the short term, the pattern of weak reality is hard to reverse, and as the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the market may enter a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality" again. Steel prices still face some downward risks from the fundamental perspective, and policy signals and the dynamics related to the Fourth Plenary Session need to be closely monitored [2]. - For the black sector, in the current demand and supply environment, prices may first decline to release the bearish sentiment in the market, and then rise with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Although the current profit rate of steel mills is better than in 2023, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions in the future, and it may be better to look for long - entry opportunities after price corrections around mid - October [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - On September 30, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3072 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.80%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 285,846 tons, a daily increase of 15,608 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.873832 million lots, a daily decrease of 52,807 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (- 1.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, with no daily change. The main contract's open interest was 1.349868 million lots, a daily decrease of 34,602 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday, steel demand was significantly weaker than last year. For rebar, terminal demand hit a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio rose significantly. For hot - rolled coils, production decreased slightly, but apparent demand declined more significantly, and inventory increased notably. The post - holiday demand recovery needs to be monitored [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - On September 30, the iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 780.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.45% (- 3.50), and the open interest changed by - 26,627 lots to 447,400 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 746,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.43 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.73%. During the National Day holiday, the TSI iron ore continuous contract closed at 104.15 US dollars/ton, up 1.46% from before the holiday [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - During the holiday, steel mill production remained stable, and overseas ore shipments were on a steady pace. In terms of supply, the end - of - third - quarter shipment rush by mines ended, and the latest overseas iron ore shipments remained high but decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output announced before the holiday was 2.4181 million tons, a decrease of 0.055 million tons month - on - month. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, iron ore prices may adjust downward [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On September 30, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.07% at 5758 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 2.07% at 5494 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 206 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by short - term realistic demand, the black sector has a downward correction risk, especially around the National Day holiday. The high pig iron output above 2.4 million tons puts pressure on prices. The price trend may be similar to that around the National Day holiday in 2023, first falling and then rising with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but if the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to potential disturbances in the manganese ore segment. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black sector's trend, with relatively low trading cost - effectiveness [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - On September 30, the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8640 yuan/ton, up 0.35% (+ 30). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 42,731 lots to 399,733 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 660 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 260 yuan/ton [11]. - The polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 51,360 yuan/ton, up 0.16% (+ 80). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 2957 lots to 226,349 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.55 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of 1190 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand have not changed significantly. Although there is an expectation of production cuts during the dry season, the start - up rate of large northwest plants has not yet peaked, and downstream demand has limited upward space. If production cuts occur in the southwest during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may be reduced, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase. For polysilicon, the current market lacks upward drivers, and there is a risk of short - term price decline. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises and policy changes [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - On the Tuesday before the holiday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1210 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (- 18). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1230 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, down 1.553 million cases (- 2.55%) [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1255 yuan/ton, down 1.80% (- 23). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1165 yuan, down 23 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons (- 2.55%), including 0.9224 million tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, down 0.0837 million tons, and 0.7291 million tons of light - soda ash inventory, down 0.0204 million tons [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass futures market showed a wide - range shock pattern before the holiday. Terminal demand was weak, and downstream procurement was cautious. Supply was relatively abundant, and inventory performance varied by region. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and take a slightly bullish view in the short term. The domestic soda ash market was generally stable with minor fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was flat. The market is expected to continue the shock - consolidation pattern in the short term [18][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the document Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on October 9, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5230, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of -100; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5250, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of -100; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 6100, with a weekly change of 100. The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon ferroalloy qualified block was 5750, with a weekly change of -150; the latest price of Tianjin 72 was 5700, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of -100. The latest export prices of Tianjin 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy were 1025 and 1105 respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [2] - For silicon manganese on October 9, 2025, the latest factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517 and Ningxia 6517 silicon manganese were 5680 and 5620 respectively, with weekly changes of -50 and -80; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5700, with a weekly change of -50; the latest price of Guizhou 6517 was 5680, with a weekly change of -20; the latest price of Yunnan 6517 was 5650, with a weekly change of -50; the latest price of Guangxi 6014 was 5100, with a weekly change of -100. The latest trading prices of Ningxia 6517 and Jiangsu 6517 silicon manganese were 5620 and 5750 respectively, with weekly changes of -80 and -100 [2] Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also presented, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6] Demand - The demand - related data include the estimated and actual monthly production of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025, the production and export price of magnesium metal, the demand for silicon manganese in China, and the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7] Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions. For silicon manganese, the inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in China [5][7] Cost - profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the cost - profit data include electricity prices in different regions, the market price and production profit of semi - coke, the market price of silica, the production cost and profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon ferroalloy. For silicon manganese, the cost - profit data include the ex - factory price of chemical coke, the price of manganese ore, and the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions [5][6][7]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Manganese silicon/silicon iron: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. The cost center will move up due to the rebound of coking coal prices, while the supply pressure remains with the continuous release of new manganese silicon production capacity and high - level silicon iron supply. With lackluster demand, the prices of ferrous commodities may be more affected by the macro - environment and policy expectations, deviating from fundamentals. It is expected that ferroalloy prices will seek a balance between weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, showing a range - bound trend with limited upside and downside space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - Quarter Review of the Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Markets - In the first quarter, manganese ore prices rose steadily due to factors such as decreasing port inventories and reduced Gabonese shipments, driving up manganese silicon prices. Then, as the cost - driving force weakened, manganese silicon prices declined until a rebound in the third quarter. Silicon iron prices were under pressure in the first half of the year due to weak demand. Although it followed the upward trend of manganese silicon passively, it continued to decline. In the third quarter, both manganese silicon and silicon iron prices rebounded with the recovery of coking coal prices [11] 3.2 Manganese Silicon: Rising Costs and High - Level Supply 3.2.1 Cost Increase - Manganese ore prices reached a high in the first quarter, driven by factors like slow overseas shipments, low port inventories, and concentrated ownership of oxidized ore. After that, prices declined as supply increased. In the third quarter, the price increase was limited. In the fourth quarter, port inventories are expected to be replenished, but the decline in prices may be limited. Chemical coke prices fell in the first half of the year and rebounded in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, they are expected to fluctuate within a range, providing some support to alloy prices [22][40] 3.2.2 High - Level Supply - Manganese silicon manufacturers' operating rates declined this year due to shrinking profits, but increased slightly in the second quarter as costs eased. In the third quarter, the operating rate remained high. In the fourth quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, maintaining high - level supply [42] 3.3 Silicon Iron: Rising Operating Rates and Increasing Inventories 3.3.1 Supply Release Driven by Rising Futures Profits - Silicon iron production was high from January to April. In the second quarter, production decreased due to losses. In the third quarter, with the recovery of prices and profits, supply increased. In different regions, Inner Mongolia had a high and rising operating rate, Ningxia was stable, and Shaanxi had a relatively low operating rate. In the fourth quarter, the over - capacity situation remains, and the operating rate will be profit - driven, with high supply elasticity [50][51] 3.3.2 Pressured Steel Demand at Home and Abroad - In the fourth quarter, steel demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors and weak real - estate investment. Silicon iron exports have been under pressure this year and are expected to remain weak in the fourth quarter. The demand from the magnesium market has limited impact on silicon iron. The balance of the silicon iron market in the fourth quarter will depend on supply - side adjustments [68] 3.4 Summary of Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron in the Second Half of the Year - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. Cost centers will move up, while supply pressure remains. With lackluster demand, prices are expected to be range - bound, and the market's volatility will depend on the game between cost support, supply pressure, and macro - factors [70][71]

Report Overview - Title: Manganese Silicon: Sector Sentiment Resonance, Weak and Oscillatory - Date: September 30, 2025 - Analysts: Yafei Li, Yuanyuan Jin (Contact) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The manganese silicon market shows a pattern of sector sentiment resonance with a weak and oscillatory trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Industry News - On September 29, 2025, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (-100), in Qinghai 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton (-50), and in Inner Mongolia 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton; the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, in Gansu 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 6100 - 6150 yuan/ton (cash含税自然块出厂, yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton (tax included). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (cash出厂含税报价) [1] - In September 2025, there were a total of 6 silicon - manganese producers in Sichuan - Chongqing and other southern regions, with 16 furnaces in operation. A 6517 silicon - manganese plant in Sichuan and a 6517 plant in Chongqing shut down, while a 6014 plant in Hunan resumed production. The output of 6517 silicon - manganese in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hunan and other southern regions in September was about 59,600 tons [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is -1, and that of manganese silicon is -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 3.3 Futures and Spot Price Data - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of SF2511 was 5610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 342,390 and an open interest of 133,285; the closing price of SF2601 was 5576 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan, with a trading volume of 137,007 and an open interest of 104,899; the closing price of SM2511 was 5802 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan, with a trading volume of 137,727 and an open interest of 43,582; the closing price of SM2601 was 5820 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan, with a trading volume of 286,763 and an open interest of 344,083 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of ferrosilicon (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of silicomanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between the spot and SF2511 was -310 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spread between the spot and SM2601 was -140 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spread between SF2511 and SF2601 was 34 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2511 and SM2601 was -18 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2511 and SF2511 was 192 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2601 and SF2601 was 244 yuan/ton [2]