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减产趋势下价格底部震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 06:40
减产趋势下价格底部震荡 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号:F03134259 投资咨询证号:Z0021009 目录 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源:Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 基本面方面,供应端硅铁、锰硅样本企业产量双双下降,随着价格来到低位,企业亏损加大后减产趋势初步形成。需求方面,本周 钢联数据显示,钢材产量与表需双双增加。但钢材利润仍处于低位,从高炉检修计划推算,未来生铁产量预计仍将震荡下行,原料 需求仍有走弱预期。成本端方面,近期产区铁合金电价总体坚挺,港口锰矿库存保持同期低位,现货锰矿价格稳中偏强。总体来看, 基本面延续了供需双降,成本端有支撑的格局。 68/84/105 210/10/16 宏观方面,近期风险资产市场情绪整体偏弱。美联储库克鹰派讲话导致美股大幅下跌,带动全球权益市场整体调整。国内商品方面, 焦煤带动整体 ...
黑色金属数据日报-20251121
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 06:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral observation; opportunistic participation in spot-futures positive arbitrage for hot-rolled coils, or using options strategies to assist spot sales [7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put spreads to protect spot exposure [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral trading with a short-term focus; medium- and long-term investors should wait and see, and previously recommended hedging short positions should be closed [7] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Market sentiment is cooling, but weekly data may continue to improve. The static valuation of steel futures prices is not high, but there is a lack of upward momentum, and the concern of steel mill production cuts remains. Steel production is expected to gradually decline [2] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the supply surplus pressure persists in the medium term, despite stronger cost support [2][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing. The decline in coking coal and coke prices may be nearing an end, but the driving force for a rebound may need to wait until mid - December [5] - Iron Ore: The fundamentals are weak, with expected inventory accumulation in the medium term. However, due to strong macro - sentiment, it is difficult to break through the price range, and the operation is biased towards shorting on rallies [6] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Futures Price Information - On November 20th, the closing prices and price changes of far - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.) and near - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, etc.) in the black metal futures market are provided, including price changes and percentage changes [1] 3.2 Spread and Profit Information - On November 20th, information such as thread surface profit, coil - thread spread, thread - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and coking surface profit is provided, along with their price changes [1] 3.3 Spot Price Information - On November 20th, spot prices of various products such as Tianjin thread, Guangzhou thread, Tangshan billet, Shanghai hot - rolled coil, and coking coal at different ports are provided, along with their price changes [1] 3.4 Basis Information - On November 20th, basis data for HC, RB, J, and other main contracts are provided, along with their price changes [1]
永安期货铁合金早报-20251121
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 02:17
铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁:72%FeSi:出口价格:天津港 (美元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁:75%FeSi:出口价格:天津港 (美元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差(元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/ ...
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251121
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].
铁合金日报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:36
研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 20 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5446 | -58 | -134 | 315918 | 83681 | 165626 | 22700 | | SM主力合约 | 5614 | -28 | -142 | 148657 | -63593 | 438614 | 2355 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5280 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5520 | -80 | -80 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5250 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5480 | 0 | -70 | | 72%FeSi青海 | 5300 ...
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251120
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 09:13
锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 5,614.00 | -28.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 5,446.00 | -16.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量(日,手) | 727,626.00 | +12625.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量(日,手) | 439,983.00 | +16425.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -7,393.00 | +4977.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓(日,手) | -13,569.00 | +3157.00↑ | | | SM5-1月合约价差(日,元/吨) | 66.00 | +8.00↑ SF5-1月合约价差(日,元/吨) | -10.00 | -8.00↓ | | | SM 仓单(日,张) | 20,343.00 | +599.00↑ SF 仓单(日,张) | 8,354.00 | -42.00↓ | | | ...
炉料延续分化,成材表现承压
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 06:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply - demand situation in the industry is marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The fundamental pattern is expected to continue, with limited trend guidance for prices. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are more positive macro and policy signals later, there may be phased upward opportunities [5] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume has continued to decline after peaking. Port inventories have decreased slightly. Small - sample hot metal production has slightly decreased, and large - scale maintenance has not occurred. In the short term, hot metal is expected to be supported, and iron ore restocking demand is expected to be released, so iron ore prices are firm. Scrap steel has a weak supply - demand situation, and its spot price is expected to fluctuate with finished products in the short term [1] 2. Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and coke demand is still supported. However, cost support has weakened. After four rounds of price increases, coke is in a dilemma of rising or falling, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. Coking coal supply is expected to remain weak. Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level but with limited replenishment. Although downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and spot coal prices are strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and the warehouse receipt pressure is still large, with a small possibility of further significant decline [2] 3. Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The firm cost also supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price has insufficient upward driving force. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Supply still has disturbance expectations, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, with obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the decline in glass prices has dragged down soda ash prices, which are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 5. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, mainly with low - price transactions. Steel mill profits are poor, and production has decreased significantly. Construction site funds have increased slightly, and demand shows some resilience after the off - season decline. Steel inventories are still higher than the same period last year, and there are still fundamental contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [7][9] Iron Ore - Port trading volume has increased. Spot prices are oscillating. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has decreased. Hot metal is expected to be supported in the short term, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. Inventories are expected to accumulate. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [7][9] Scrap Steel - Supply and demand are both weak. After the price decline, the cost - performance ratio has recovered, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate with finished products [8] Coke - The futures price is under pressure and oscillating. The spot price is stable. Supply is temporarily stable, and demand is still supported. Inventories are low. It is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate [8][11][12] Coking Coal - The market sentiment is poor, and the futures price is under pressure and oscillating. Supply recovery is slow, and imports are at a high level but with limited replenishment. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is strongly supported. The futures price is suppressed by finished products, and the warehouse receipt pressure is large. It is less likely to fall significantly, and attention can be paid to the winter storage situation in the industrial chain [13] Glass - Macro is neutral. Supply is expected to decline due to possible cold repair at the end of the year. Demand is weak, and mid - and downstream inventories are high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold repair, it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - Macro is neutral. Production has decreased due to maintenance. Demand is weakening. The cost has increased, with obvious bottom support. The supply - demand surplus suppresses price increases. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [14] Ferromanganese Silicon - The futures price has declined due to the weakening of coking coal and coke. The spot price is stable. The cost is supported, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [17] Ferrosilicon - The futures price is oscillating at a low level. The spot market trading is average. The cost is supported, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [18]
期现协同架起产业链“连心桥”
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-11-20 01:03
Core Insights - The ferroalloy industry is facing significant challenges such as profit margin compression, traditional business models failing, and cyclical demand weakness, prompting companies to innovate with risk management tools like futures and options to achieve counter-cyclical growth [1][2][5] Industry Challenges - The silicon manganese sector has long been plagued by oversupply, making it a focal point for supply-side structural reforms [1] - Profit margins in the silicon iron and silicon manganese industries have been persistently low, except for 2021, with weak long-term demand growth [2] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a downward trend in spot market prices due to excess capacity and declining demand, leading to a downward spiral in silicon manganese prices [1][2] Risk Management Innovations - Companies are exploring new risk management models through the combination of futures and options, which allows for more robust business operations amid market fluctuations [2][3] - The use of options provides significant advantages, such as protecting futures positions and alleviating financial pressure while retaining the potential for profit from price increases [2][3] Operational Strategies - The integration of futures and options not only helps companies manage price risks but also fosters collaboration across the supply chain, enhancing overall industry resilience [3][4] - Companies have shifted their sales strategies from a reliance on long-term contracts with steel mills to a more balanced approach that includes a significant portion of spot trading [3][4] Performance Improvement - The application of a futures-based strategy has allowed companies to stabilize production and improve competitiveness, leading to better cost management [3][4] - The average profit margins of companies utilizing these risk management tools have shown significant improvement compared to previous periods [4] Future Outlook - The trend of adopting financial tools for proactive risk management is transforming ferroalloy companies from traditional manufacturers into risk management experts, enhancing the resilience and collaboration of the entire supply chain [5] - This shift is seen as a crucial pathway for the industry to break the downward spiral of cost and demand, moving towards a greener, more efficient, and sustainable future [5]
铁合金早报-20251120
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 01:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, the latest prices of natural lumps in different regions are as follows: Ningxia 72 is 5150, Inner Mongolia 72 is 5200, Qinghai 72 is 5200, and Shaanxi 72 is 5130. The latest price of Shaanxi 75 is 5700. The prices of qualified lumps in Jiangsu 72 and Tianjin 72 are 5550 and 5500 respectively. The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 are 1030 and 1080 (in US dollars) [2]. - For silicon - manganese ferroalloy, the factory - ex prices in different regions are: Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600, Ningxia 6517 is 5480, Guangxi 6517 is 5570, Guizhou 6517 is 5550, and Yunnan 6517 is 5550. The price of Guangxi 6014 is 5000. The trader prices of Ningxia 6517 and Jiangsu 6517 are 5480 and 5670 respectively [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China shows monthly and weekly production trends from 2021 - 2025. The monthly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China ranges from 350,000 to 550,000 tons, and the weekly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises (with a capacity share of 95%) shows fluctuations [4]. - The production of silicon - manganese ferroalloy in China shows weekly production trends from 2021 - 2025, with the weekly production ranging from 5500 to 9000 [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon - manganese ferroalloy in China (according to Steelhome's statistics) shows trends from 2021 - 2025, with the demand ranging from 120,000 to 280,000 tons [7]. - The demand - related data such as the purchase volume and price of silicon ferroalloy by HBIS Group from 2021 - 2025 are also presented, with the purchase volume of FeSi75 - B by HBIS Group ranging from 5000 to 12000 tons per month [4]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi shows weekly trends from 2021 - 2025. The total inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China ranges from 30,000 to 110,000 tons [5]. - For silicon - manganese ferroalloy, the inventory data such as the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory on CZCE show daily trends from 2021 - 2025. The total number of warehouse receipts on CZCE ranges from 0 to 140,000 [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the cost and profit data such as the production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the profit converted to the main contract in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon ferroalloy show trends from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon - manganese ferroalloy, the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to Steelhome's statistics) show trends from 2021 - 2025 [7].
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251119
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 10:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 19th, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5642, down 1.16%. The inventory has rebounded rapidly, production at a high level continues to decline slightly, and inventory has risen for 7 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end decreased by 13.4 tons, and the overall demand for hot metal has a seasonal decline. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 19th, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5504, down 1.01%. Coal weakening led to an adjustment in alloys. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, and inventory has risen for two consecutive weeks. The daily K - line is above the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 715,001 lots, up 48,355 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 423,558 lots, up 25,031 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net open interest: - 12,370 lots, up 9,528 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net open interest: - 16,726 lots, up 1,826 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 58 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: - 2 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 19,744 sheets, down 119 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 8,396 sheets, down 47 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,579 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 242 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SM main contract basis: - 142 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 39.59%, down 0.65%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 34.84%, down 1.42% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 199,570 tons, down 2,310 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 109,100 tons, down 5,000 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 349,500 tons, up 30,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory: 81,360 tons, up 2,670 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory: 15.7 days, down 0.23 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory: 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 118,589 tons, down 2,524 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 19,073.8 tons, down 739.9 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 82.79%, down 0.36%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization: 88.82%, up 1.03% [2]. - October national crude steel production: 7,199.7 tons, down 149.31 tons; January - October cumulative crude steel production: 81,787.4 tons, down 3.9% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The EU announced import quotas for steel alloys containing manganese or silicon for three years, setting quotas by ferro - alloy category and exporting country to limit duty - free imports in the EU [2]. - Local "state - owned" platforms in Beijing, Guangzhou, Fuzhou, etc. have publicly sold real estate this year, which should not be interpreted as a sell - off [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market Pricing - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 180 yuan/ton; Ningxia spot profit is - 380 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's November silicon - manganese final price is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 250 yuan/ton; Ningxia spot profit is - 480 yuan/ton. HeSteel's November 75B ferrosilicon tender price is 5,680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous round [2].