Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts combined with tariff fluctuations make trading difficult, so it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [5]. - The spot freight rate is continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices. The market is oscillating weakly, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index in July jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit transit trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the market price range was set with a small price increase to test the market [5]. - The US - China tariff negotiation was postponed for 90 days. Maersk's recent quotes have been continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits; go short lightly for the EC2512 contract and take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On August 12, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1417.6, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and an open interest of 560,000 lots, a decrease of 734 lots from the previous day [5]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current main contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the fluctuation of domestic macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection situations of different alliances varied, with MSK performing well, OA being average, and PA being poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly weakened. This week, EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39, resulting in a slight decrease in shipping capacity but still remaining at a high level. In August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025, the average weekly shipping capacities are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the futures market, the current contract for October has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract has the attribute of a peak - season contract, and continuous position - shifting and contract - rolling support it. However, the overall driving force is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions for the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices, price changes (%), basis, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are provided. For example, the closing price of EC2508 is 2082.0 with a 0.10% increase, and its basis is 153.5 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are presented, along with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For instance, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 664.4, with a day - on - day decrease of 6.8 and a week - on - week increase of 13.2 [2]. Spot Index Information - **Spot Indexes and Changes**: The SCHIE, SCFI, CCFI, and NCFI spot indexes are updated at different frequencies. The current values, previous values, and percentage changes are provided. For example, the SCHIE index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48, with a 2.71% decrease from the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week34 Quotations**: In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance's price was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and OA Alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3]. - **Week35 Quotations**: MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars in week35. On Tuesday, HPL reduced its price by 400 to 2435 US dollars [3]. Related News On August 12, the Israeli military stated that the operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage." The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, said on the 11th that the operation in the Gaza Strip had entered a new phase, and the Israeli military would formulate the best plan to achieve its goals and protect the lives of the hostages [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased drop. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The主力10 contract is deeply discounted, and it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Spot market: The peak of the shipping season has passed. The SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased drop. The freight rates of major airlines in August are showing a weekly decline. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the freight rates this year may be weaker in the off - season. It is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the freight rates on most routes continued to decline. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 8th was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The EU is China's second - largest trading partner, and the trade volume with the EU in the first 7 months of 2025 increased by 3.9% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the export recovery in July. The freight rates on the European and Mediterranean routes continued to decline. The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has deteriorated. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From August 4th to 11th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 2297.86 to 2235.48, a 2.7% decline; the SCFIS for the US West route decreased from 1130.12 to 1082.14, a 4.2% decline [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Data on the trading of container shipping European line futures contracts on August 12th is provided, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for different contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include the global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [16][19]

Core Viewpoint - The newly introduced "Hubei Province Yangtze River Ship Pollution Prevention Regulations" aims to enhance the ecological protection of the Yangtze River and promote high-quality development of the Yangtze Economic Belt, with implementation starting from October 1, 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Legislative Framework - The regulations consist of 6 chapters and 63 articles, covering general provisions, pollution prevention measures, emergency response to pollution incidents, supervision and management, legal responsibilities, and supplementary provisions [2]. - The regulations clarify the responsibilities of government agencies, ship owners, operators, and port facilities in pollution prevention [2][3]. Group 2: Pollution Prevention Measures - The regulations promote a "shipboard storage, shore disposal" model for ship pollution management, detailing the entire process of pollutant delivery, reception, transfer, and disposal [2][6]. - There are strict requirements for fuel quality monitoring and regulations against visible smoke emissions from ships [2][3]. Group 3: Emergency Response and Monitoring - The regulations establish a comprehensive emergency response system for pollution incidents, including the development of emergency plans and monitoring mechanisms [3]. - There is a focus on real-time monitoring and public reporting of water quality in affected areas [3]. Group 4: Regional Cooperation - The regulations emphasize collaboration with other provinces along the Yangtze River, facilitating information sharing and joint efforts in pollution prevention [3][6]. - This marks the first collaborative legislative project between Hubei and neighboring provinces, aiming for coordinated pollution control efforts [6]. Group 5: Enforcement and Penalties - The regulations impose strict penalties for various violations, including illegal discharge of pollutants and failure to comply with waste disposal protocols [3][7]. - The aim is to enhance the rigidity of the legal framework surrounding pollution prevention [3]. Group 6: Green Shipping Initiatives - The regulations support the transition to green and low-carbon shipping, with initiatives for the development of clean energy vessels and infrastructure [5][6]. - The goal is to achieve "zero emissions" for the majority of vessels operating on the Yangtze River [5][6].

Trading Information Summary - As of August 12, 2025, China Merchants Heavy Industry (600428) closed at 6.82 CNY, up 1.49% with a turnover rate of 1.58% and a trading volume of 339,900 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 232 million CNY [1] - On August 12, the fund flow for China Merchants Heavy Industry showed a net outflow of 14.41 million CNY from main funds, accounting for 6.22% of the total transaction value, while retail investors had a net inflow of 11.41 million CNY, representing 4.92% of the total transaction value [1][4] Company Announcement Summary - China Merchants Heavy Industry announced a cash dividend of 0.279 CNY per share for the 2024 annual equity distribution, with the record date set for August 18, 2025, and the ex-dividend date and payment date on August 19, 2025 [2] - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to approximately 765.55 million CNY based on the company's total share capital of 2,743,920,395 shares [2] - Different tax policies apply to various types of shareholders regarding the cash dividend, with individual shareholders and securities investment funds receiving a net dividend of 0.2511 CNY per share after tax deductions for certain conditions [2]

Group 1 - The conflict between the US and India over oil imports from Russia highlights a shifting global trade landscape [3][4] - Trump's tariff increase on Indian goods is part of a broader strategy to bring manufacturing back to the US [4][12] - India's response to US tariffs indicates a strong political and economic stance, as it continues to engage with Russia [5][6] Group 2 - India's economic rationale for importing Russian oil includes significant cost savings and the ability to profit from refined exports [5][6] - The political strategy for India involves seeking new alliances and leveraging multilateral trade agreements to counterbalance US pressure [7][9] - The US tariffs on Indian goods are not absolute, as certain high-tech and pharmaceutical products are exempt, indicating a complex trade relationship [10][11] Group 3 - The evolving trade dynamics suggest a potential alliance among China, India, and Russia, challenging US dominance [12][14] - Emerging economies are increasingly vocal against US tariffs, indicating a trend towards economic group formation and "de-dollarization" [13][14] - The potential for further tariff increases by the US raises questions about the effectiveness of such measures in the long term [14][16] Group 4 - The current situation may signal the beginning of a new "economic cold war," with competing interests reshaping global trade rules [17] - India's assertive stance against US tariffs reflects a calculated approach to international relations and trade negotiations [17]

Non-Banking Financial Sector - The average net investment return rate of six major listed insurance groups (China Life, Ping An, Taikang, Xinhua, PICC, and Taiping) decreased from 4.7% in 2020 to 3.6% in 2024, raising concerns about interest spread risk in a low-interest-rate environment [2][7] - Under pressure testing, the net asset decline for Taikang and China Life was 7% and 13.6% respectively when interest rates fell by 50 basis points, indicating that the risk is manageable [8][9] - The cost of new policies has effectively decreased, with the cost of liabilities for major companies like China Life and Taikang dropping approximately 50 basis points to 2.4-2.5% in 2024 [9][10] - The cost of existing policies may reach a turning point, with companies like Xinhua increasing equity ratios to hedge against interest rate declines [10][11] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The latest pig price is 13.72 RMB/kg, with a slight decrease in average weight to 127.8 kg, indicating a short-term decline possibly due to policy-driven weight reduction [12][13] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes high-quality development in the pig industry, focusing on reducing breeding stock and controlling new capacity [12][13] - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with leading companies likely to increase market share [14][15] Machinery and Building Materials - The new Tibet Railway project marks the beginning of a significant engineering era, with expectations that cement companies in Xinjiang will benefit [22][23] - AI is driving increased demand for high-end electronic fabrics, with Low-CTE materials being particularly undervalued in the current market [23][24] - The report suggests a long-term growth potential for high-end electronic fabrics, recommending companies like Honghe Technology and Zhongcai Technology for investment [23][25] New Consumption - Huayi Group is expected to achieve a revenue of 12.661 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.36% year-on-year, despite external macroeconomic challenges [26][27] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 RMB per 10 shares, indicating strong dividend intentions [26][27] - The growth in orders is driven by the development of the sports industry and increased demand from strong brand orders [27][28] Transportation - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a revenue of approximately 3.105 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.17%, despite a decline in toll revenue in Q2 [30][31] - The company is optimizing its debt structure, which has significantly improved its expense ratio [31][32] - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers is expanding its fleet, with 27 new vessels expected to be delivered by 2026, supporting performance growth [34][35]

Core Insights - The shipping industry is experiencing a downward trend in freight rates, particularly in the North American routes, leading to a cautious approach from major players like Maersk and MSC [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - Following MSC Mediterranean Shipping's suspension of services on the US West Coast, China United Shipping has also delayed its reopening plans for the same route [1] - The North American route market has seen a decline in basic freight rates since August, with rates for shipping containers to the US West Coast and East Coast dropping by 9.8% and 10.7% respectively [2] - The European shipping market is also facing a downturn, with freight rates decreasing by 4.4% for shipments from Shanghai to European ports [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Maersk reported a 4.2% increase in freight volume year-on-year for its shipping business, contrasting with a slight decline in competitors like CMA CGM [2] - Maersk's second-quarter revenue growth was significantly supported by a 20% increase in demurrage and detention fees, indicating a cautious market environment [4] - The company has raised its full-year container volume growth forecast to 2%-4%, driven by strong demand outside North America [6] Group 3: Emerging Markets - Major shipping companies are shifting their focus towards emerging markets in Africa, South America, and the Middle East, as demand in North America declines [6][7] - MSC has launched new services to West Africa and South America, while other companies are also exploring new routes to capitalize on growing demand in these regions [6] - The Middle East and India-Pakistan routes have seen significant increases in freight rates due to supply constraints and rising demand [6][7] Group 4: Trade Dynamics - China's exports to the EU have shown a growth rate of 3.9% in the first seven months of the year, while trade with the US has been less robust [3][8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have led to increased demand for certain goods, particularly in the Indian market, which is expected to see continued price increases [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Industry is a global leader in specialized transportation vessels, with new capacity expected to drive performance growth in the coming years [1] Company Overview - China Merchants Industry is projected to deliver a total of 65 new vessels between 2025 and 2026, equating to a total capacity of 3.75 million DWT, which represents 61% of the company's fleet capacity by the end of 2024 [1] - The rapid expansion of the fleet is anticipated to support significant performance growth [1] Business Segments - The company's pulp carrier business is expected to benefit from the rapid fleet expansion, stable domestic pulp consumption growth, and the expansion plans of overseas pulp mills, making it a key contributor to performance growth [1] - The supply side is constrained by aging vessels and environmental compliance requirements, indicating that the tight capacity situation is likely to persist in the short to medium term [1] Market Dynamics - The expansion of the automobile carrier fleet is expected to bring additional capacity, with a solid fundamental outlook [1] - The company has a strong competitive advantage and profitability, with potential policy benefits in the semi-submersible vessel market [1] Investment Outlook - Given the rapid expansion of the fleet, the company is expected to see considerable performance growth, and assuming a 50% dividend payout ratio over the next three years, it offers a dividend yield of 5-6% [1] - The company has initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The shipping market is in a state of weak oscillation. The main reason is that Maersk's freight rate at the end of August dropped to 2200, a decrease of 400 from last week, exceeding market expectations. The spot freight rate has peaked, and the subsequent focus is on the decline slope until the end of October. The freight rate on the European route is under pressure, and it is expected to break through 2000 in September [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCEI) is currently at 1490, down 3.94% from the previous value of 1551; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1201, down 2.59% from 1233. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also showed significant declines [4]. - **Other Routes**: SCFIS - Northwest Europe is currently at 2235, down 2.70% from 2297; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2318, down 0.64% from 2333 [4]. Shipping Derivatives - **Contract Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling. For example, EC2506 rose 0.44% to 1497.1 from 1490.5 [4]. - **Open Interest**: Open interest for contracts such as EC2606, EC2508 also changed. For instance, EC2606 open interest decreased by 30 to 770 from 800 [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) also changed. For example, the 10 - 12 spread decreased by 17.2 to -341.2 from -324.0 [4]. Market News - **Policy and Geopolitics**: The US and China need to decide whether to extend the current tariff suspension agreement by August 12. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 [5]. - **Industry Developments**: South Korea plans to conduct pilot operations on the "Northern Sea Route" starting in 2026. Three Chinese small - market carriers will offer several voyages on this route in late summer 2025. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report shows that US imports in the last four months of 2025 will decline significantly year - on - year [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the October contract on rallies (take profit gradually as it has pulled back recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8].