人类不同于绿色植物，无法通过光合作用自给自足，要想活下去，必定需要依赖能源。随着寒冷季节临近，欧洲的局势愈发紧张，尤其是因为俄罗斯切断了 天然气供应，整个欧洲大有寒冬将至的感觉。对于普通的德国家庭来说，每个月仅暖气费用就要支付700欧元（约合人民币4996元），这无疑是一笔沉重的 负担，几乎让人难以承受。 1973年，美国的汽油价格从3美元一桶飙升至12美元一桶，随之而来的是美国实施油票制度，英国实行一周三天工作制，德国人周末不开车成为了法律要 求。美国街头，因缺油而抛锚的汽车随处可见。这一切无不表明，美国这个号称车轮上的国家终于亲身感受到了能源危机的严峻现实。 美国本土的石油资源并不缺乏，石油工业的发源地就是美国，洛克菲勒家族也正是凭借石油致富，至今其资产已超过45万亿美元。然而，在上世纪70年代的 美国，石油这一资源的重要性并未得到足够重视。美国习惯性地把自己国家的石油储备封存起来，而频频把目光投向中东等他国的石油。可这一切，最终都 导致了石油供应的紧张与价格的飙升。那么，美国究竟要如何解决石油问题呢？难道只能通过购买？显然，购买石油需要付出巨大的成本，那么，难道应该 通过抢夺他国的石油来满足需求？美国一 ...

钱诚天眼：6股争王，2月24日牛妖股风云录（一） 今天是2026年2月24日，马年第一个交易日，A股以一种近乎"脱缰"的姿态狂奔。三大指数半日涨幅均 超1%，成交量更是较前一日暴增3074亿，市场仿佛被注入了强心剂。在看似普涨的狂欢中，真正的猎 手关注的不是那些已经高高在上的明星，而是那些于中低位突然暴动、脱颖而出的"牛妖股"。它们或许 不是全场最耀眼的，但却是爆发力最强的，是未来"牛妖王"最有力的竞争者。 一、今日A股全景：由守转攻，资源为王 2026年的春季行情，在今天呈现出极为清晰的脉络。盘面上，资金的风险偏好发生了显著转向。 一方面，以石油、黄金、化工为代表的资源周期股全线大涨，这是宏观叙事的胜利。美伊局势的剑拔弩 张、特朗普关税政策的阴云不散，共同推高了全球对于滞胀的预期，资源品成了资金最好的避风港。中 曼石油、湖南白银的涨停，宣告了资源股从配角走向舞台中央。 另一方面，AI硬件端并未因资源股的吸血而崩塌，反而走出了独立的强势行情。长飞光纤的历史新 高、天孚通信的大涨，说明产业趋势的力量同样强大。市场不再是单一主线的独舞，而是形成了"资源 （通胀）+科技（成长）"双轮驱动的健康格局。影视院线、部分A ...

极目新闻记者 吕少峰 | | 代码 名称 | 年初至今% 涨停数+ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 880335 化工 | 13.17 | 13 | | 2 | 880310 石油 | 10.11 | 12 | | 3 | 880490 通信设备 | 3.65 | 6 | | 4 | 880446 电气设备 | 8.93 | 6 | | રે | 880476 建筑 | 5.75 | 5 | | 6 | 880344 建材 | 22.53 | 5 | | 7 8 | 880440 工业机械 | 15.27 | 4 | | | 880324 有色 | 19.17 | 4 | | 9 | 880492 元器件 | 6.61 | 3 | 概念方面，一带一路17个涨停，天然气16个涨停，储能、氢能源、光伏各12个涨停。总体来看，今天是新能源唱主角的一天。 | | | 土日町以次 山川大区 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 代码 名称 | · 年初至今% · · | | | 1 | 880594 一带一路 | 9.63 | 20 | | | 88 ...

美国最高法院六票对三票，把特朗普的全球关税政策判了"死刑"。这一刀，直接砍在了美印贸易协议的命根 子上。 就在18天前，特朗普刚刚高调宣布跟莫迪达成"世纪交易"——降关税、断俄油、买美货，一个都不能少。 结果协议墨迹还没干，法律根基就塌了。 特朗普的关税帝国一夜崩塌 2月20日,美国联邦最高法院公布了一份裁决，内容只有一句话的核心意思：总统无权绕过国会征收大规模关 税。 六位大法官投了赞成票，三位投了反对票。裁决书由首席大法官罗伯茨亲自执笔，甚至连特朗普自己任命的 两位大法官——戈萨奇和巴雷特——都站到了"反对总统"的一边。 这意味着什么？过去一年里，特朗普援引1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）对全球几十个国家征收 的"对等关税"，全部失效。对印度50%的关税，没了。 对加拿大、墨西哥的芬太尼关税，没了。据宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿预算模型估算，这一纸判决直接让美国未来 十年超过1.4万亿美元的关税预期收入化为泡影，还可能面临高达1750亿美元的企业退税诉求。 特朗普气疯了。当天下午就在白宫开记者会，把投赞成票的六位大法官骂作"国家的耻辱"，称裁决"荒谬、 措辞拙劣、极端反美"。记者会还没结束，一纸新的行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Group 1 - The ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating, with the U.S. potentially planning military strikes while Iran maintains a strong stance against yielding to pressure [1][3] - Iran possesses approximately 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of reaching U.S. military bases in Turkey, Israel, and Gulf states, indicating its ability to retaliate if attacked [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical geopolitical asset for Iran, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, and Iran has threatened to close it in response to military action, which could significantly impact global energy supply [4] Group 2 - Iran's historical experience with negotiations, particularly the 2015 nuclear deal, has made it wary of compromising, as past concessions did not lead to lasting peace but rather further aggression [6] - The current standoff is seen as vital for Iran's regime survival and national dignity, with the Supreme Leader emphasizing that true strength comes from national will and resilience [7] - The potential for a prolonged conflict poses risks for the U.S., as its military might face challenges in a drawn-out engagement, which could contradict political promises and lead to domestic repercussions [8][10]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/24 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/09 | 64.36 | 69.04 | 67.79 | 1.84 | 0.62 | -4.68 | 1.47 | 198.55 | 14.35 | 241.69 | 32.47 | | 2026/02/10 | 63.96 | 68.80 | 67.38 | 1.87 | 0.69 | -4.84 | 1.69 | 195.92 | 13.49 | 239.88 | 31.95 | | 2026/02/11 | 64.63 | 69.40 | 67.68 ...

石油ETF富国（159148）跟踪国证石油天然气指数，聚焦于A股市场中与石油、天然气全产业链相关的 上市公司，覆盖勘探开发、设备服务、燃气输配及综合性能源运营等核心环节；标普油气ETF （513350）则聚焦美股油气勘探和生产领域的个股。 今日盘间，周期板块延续强势，基本金属、化工原料等行业涨势不俗，助推相关ETF走高。截至发稿， 富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）涨超7.4%，石油ETF富国（159148）、有色ETF富国 （159168）、化工50ETF（516120）分别上涨5.70%、3.08%、2.54%。 消息面上，A股春节休市期间，美伊紧张局势加剧，市场对原油供应中断的担忧升温，同时地缘风险也 推高了有色及化工品的价格。 研究机构表示，在地缘冲突仍存在不确定性的前提下，中长期原油供需格局仍具备景气基础，在长期主 义视角下，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块。此外，宏观经济修复提振化工需求，长期来看化工品产能出 清利好龙头企业。 对相关板块感兴趣的投资者，可以关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）、石油ETF富国 （159148）、有色ETF富国（159168）、化工50ETF（51 ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，外盘油价走强，节后首日内盘大概率高开补涨。地缘：地 | | 原油 | | 缘政治主导油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核 | | ★ | 看多 | 心驱动：供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+ | | | 将于 | 4 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘 | | | | 进展。 | | | | 成本端油价攀升，成本端利好，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 | | LPG ★ | 看多 | 扰动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好；供需双增，商品量与下游化工开 | | | | 工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口库存连续上升。 | | | | 春节期间现货信息停滞，预计节后开盘跟随成本端震荡偏强。节前标品装 | | L | 反弹 | 置陆续回归，基差持续偏弱震荡，两油石化库存降至 46 万吨，处于 5 年 | | ★ | | 同期最低位，预计节后石化库存累库至 90 万吨左右。后市检修力度并不 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].