Market Performance - On March 23, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 3.76%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.49%[3] - The trading volume on March 23 reached 2.45 trillion CNY, an increase of approximately 150 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - All sectors except for oil and coal experienced declines, with agriculture, commerce, electronics, and textiles showing the largest drops[1] - Over half of the industries saw declines exceeding 4%, with the banking sector also experiencing significant losses[1] Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened panic, influenced by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which are affecting global energy markets and economic systems[1] - International oil prices have surpassed 100 USD per barrel, and European natural gas prices have significantly increased[1] Economic Impact - The conflict is causing a ripple effect, leading to rising prices in fertilizers and other agricultural products, which may further increase food production costs[1] - The Chinese government is focusing on developing a diverse clean energy system, including wind, solar, nuclear, and biomass energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan[5] Fund Flow - On March 23, the Shanghai Stock Exchange saw a net outflow of 14.944 billion CNY, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had a net inflow of 0.793 billion CNY[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were passenger vehicles, packaging and printing, and photovoltaic equipment, while the top outflow sectors included semiconductors, communication equipment, and components[4] Industry Developments - In the first two months of 2026, China's engineering machinery product exports reached 10.686 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.4%[10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is conducting research on the recycling and utilization of used power batteries from new energy vehicles[9]

原油日报 | 2026-03-24 美伊谈判希望重燃，油价大幅回落 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所5月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌10.10美元，收于每桶88.13美元，跌幅为10.28%；5月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌12.25美元，收于每桶99.94美元，跌幅为10.92%。SC原油主力合约收跌7.81%，报742 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 一艘装载200万桶伊拉克原油的超级油轮成功通过霍尔木兹海峡，这是自该海峡对所有商业航运关闭以来，首 艘被观测到的通过该海峡的运送伊拉克原油的船只。油轮追踪数据显示，由日本商船三井公司管理的"Omega Trader"号在过去几天已抵达孟买。该船在抵达孟买之前的最后定位信号，是十多天前从波斯湾内部发出的。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、 美国能源部长赖特：可能会再次动用战略石油储备，但可能性不大。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、 美国总统特朗普周一表示，伊朗希望结束战争，正与伊朗进行磋商，以确定能否达成更广泛的协议。他在田 纳西州孟菲斯市的一场关于安全的活动上对听众说，考虑到美军所取得的成就，"这次他们是认真的"。"他们想解 决问 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodities market is entering a new phase characterized by "high uncertainty and strong structural differentiation," particularly influenced by geopolitical conflicts affecting energy logistics and rising oil prices, while the metal market continues to show divergence in demand trends [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The energy sector is significantly impacted by geopolitical conflicts, leading to disruptions in Middle Eastern oil logistics and record high spot prices for Dubai crude oil, which notably affects Asian buyers [1]. - The metal market is experiencing continued differentiation, with domestic growth and industrial upgrades supporting demand for copper and aluminum driven by new energy and computing infrastructure, while traditional cyclical demand recovery remains relatively mild [1]. Group 2: Event Agenda - The event features a series of presentations and discussions from industry leaders, including a keynote speech by Victor Rubtsov, the Asia-Pacific Sales Director for Commodities at LSEG, focusing on the outlook for precious metals, base metals, and key minerals [2][3][4]. - A roundtable discussion will address the opportunities and challenges in the 2026 commodities market, featuring experts such as Bruce Alway and Emril Jamil [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has reversed the previous pro - cyclical and re - inflation environment, and the commodity market may seek a direction between stagflation and recession in the future. The impact on oil prices, the macro - economy, and asset pricing logic will significantly exceed that of the same period in history [7][12]. - In the shipping industry, the geopolitical conflict has increased costs, and the recovery of shipping will take time. The price of shipping depends on the duration of the blockade [12][22]. - In the polyester bottle - chip industry, the supply is tightening, and the industry has emerged from the loss dilemma. In the short term, it can be operated with a long - bias, but there is a risk of decline if the geopolitical situation eases [22][30]. - In the asphalt industry, the supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the support for the price is strong. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the second quarter [31][35]. - In the soda ash industry, the market may first trade the speculative purchases of the downstream and mid - stream due to imported inflation, but there are opportunities for short - selling at high levels later [37][40]. - In the precious metals market, gold and silver are facing short - term headwinds due to tightened liquidity and concerns about interest - rate hikes [41][46]. - In the agricultural products market, the rise in oil prices affects agricultural products through cost and substitution paths. If oil prices remain high for a long time, the impact on agricultural product prices will become more obvious [50][57]. Summary by Directory Macro: From Risk Shock to Supply - Demand Reshaping - The Impact of Middle East Geopolitical Risks on Commodity Trends - Before the conflict, the market had a pro - cyclical expectation. After the US - Israel attack on Iran on February 28, the situation reversed. The conflict cut off the industrial chain cycle, causing a sharp rise in oil prices and a greater impact on the economy [7]. - Historically, in seven US - involved conflicts related to geopolitics or resource - rich countries, the price of crude oil rose in three cases and fell in four cases. Gold showed different trends in different conflicts, mainly related to the market's understanding of monetary policy during the war. The US dollar's trend is complex, and in this Iran conflict, it may not be very weak in the short and medium term. Copper will trade the recession expectation at a certain stage and then rebound [9][11]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the pro - cyclical and re - inflation environment has changed. The commodity market may face stagflation or recession. The supply constraint - driven price increase may not be sustainable, and the risk of commodity price decline is accumulating [12]. Shipping: Geopolitical Conflict Raises Costs, Shipping Companies Impose Fuel Surcharges - The passage of the Hormuz Strait remains basically stagnant, with 1110 ships stranded, including 773 of the three major ship types. The passage situation is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and it will take time for shipping to recover even if the war eases [14][16]. - The Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal have not been significantly affected for the time being, but if the Houthi rebels restart attacks in the Red Sea, these routes will be greatly affected [17]. - Fuel costs and insurance premiums have risen significantly. The price of marine low - sulfur fuel oil has more than doubled, and most shipping companies have suspended bookings for Middle - East routes [18]. - There are alternative solutions for Middle - East routes, but they have high costs and low efficiency. The follow - up actions of the Houthi rebels will affect shipping companies' capacity deployment [19]. - The spot freight rate of European routes is oscillating in the off - season, and the freight rate of Middle - East routes is in high - level game. The short - term focus is on the cargo - receiving situation of shipping companies in April, and the medium - and long - term freight rate depends on the blockade time [20][22]. Polyester Bottle Chips: Tightening Supply and Peak Season, Bottle Chips Out of the Loss Dilemma - The driving logic of the market has shifted from the cost side to the supply side. The reduction of PX load will affect the supply of downstream PTA [22]. - In the price - difference structure, naphtha is the strongest, and the price difference between PX and naphtha is weak. The profit - compression space of PX and PTA is large [23]. - Due to refinery load reduction and the maintenance season, the supply of PX is expected to decrease, and the supply of PTA is also under pressure. The load of ethylene glycol is affected by raw materials, and the import is expected to decrease [24][26]. - The load of polyester is seasonally rising, and the inventory of polyester products is differentiated. Bottle chips perform better than short - fibers, and the price difference strategy between them can be concerned [29]. - In the short term, the market can be operated with a long - bias, but there is a risk of decline if the geopolitical situation eases. It is not recommended to chase positive spreads in the month - spread, and the month - spread can be narrowed at high prices [30]. Asphalt: Tight Supply, Weak Demand, and Continued Concerns about Raw Materials - The current market is driven by supply tightening and domestic refinery production cuts. In mid - March, as the Middle - East situation intensified and the cost increased, some refineries reduced or stopped production, driving the price up [31]. - The supply of asphalt in the southern region has decreased significantly, and the demand recovery is still weak. The demand for road - modified asphalt is at the lowest level in the same period, and the demand for waterproofing membranes has only recovered to the medium - low level [32]. - The core driving factors include the increase in raw material prices due to the Middle - East conflict, the problem of raw material inventory from the Venezuela event, and the supply concern of other heavy - quality raw materials [33][34]. - In the future, at least in the second quarter, the asphalt price is expected to maintain a high - level shock due to the peak demand season and raw - material inventory consumption [35]. Soda Ash: Continued Geopolitical Disturbance, Differentiated Trends of Weak - Fundamentals Varieties - In the first three weeks of the conflict, the market sentiment was intense in the first week, with energy products leading the rise. In the second week, the sentiment was differentiated, and the rise and fall narrowed. In the third week, glass and soda ash entered the top ten decliners [36]. - In the fourth week, the mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran strengthened the market's pricing of the energy crisis. Coal prices rose, driving soda ash prices up [37]. - The cost of soda ash is affected by coal prices, but the impact is limited. The supply of soda ash is at a historical high, and the demand is strong in the short term but may face negative feedback later [38][39]. - In the short term, soda ash prices may be strong, but there are opportunities for short - selling at high levels. The strategy of going long on soda ash and short on glass can be considered, and selling call options can also be considered [40]. Gold and Silver: Geopolitical Factors Drag on Liquidity Tightening, Gold and Silver Face Short - Term Headwinds - Since March 2, the prices of gold and silver have weakened due to tightened liquidity and concerns about interest - rate hikes, and they have broken through key moving averages technically [41][42]. - Historically, the price of gold is highly sensitive to the US real yield. In the short term, the negative factors of gold are dominant, and it is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the short term and wait for positive signals in the medium and long term [45][46]. - The price of silver generally follows that of gold. The relative valuation adjustment of silver has been completed, but attention should be paid to the impact of changes in ETF demand on the supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the short term [47][49]. Agricultural Products: Geopolitical Conflict Raises Costs, Analysis of the Impact on Agricultural Products - Crude oil affects agricultural products through cost and substitution paths. The cost of fertilizers and transportation has increased significantly since the conflict [50][51]. - The correlation between US agricultural products and crude oil is higher than that in China. Different agricultural products have different correlations with crude oil, and the impact paths are also different [52]. - Different crops and countries have different sensitivities to fertilizer price increases. Corn is the most sensitive, and Brazil is highly sensitive to fertilizer price increases [56]. - The rise in oil prices affects agricultural products through multiple paths. If oil prices remain high for a long time, the impact on agricultural product prices will become more obvious [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial market, including the trends of various futures, stocks, and bonds. It also details important macro - economic, energy, and geopolitical news, which have significant impacts on the market. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil closed down 9.53% at $88.87 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 9.44% to $96.37 per barrel [4]. - London base metals all rose, with LME tin up 2.82% at $44,500 per ton, LME copper up 2.44% at $12,221 per ton, etc. [4]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold futures down 3.60% at $4410.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.49% at $69.32 per ounce [5]. Important Information Macro - Information - Trump postponed military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, but Iranian media said there was no direct or indirect communication between the two sides [8]. - Iran denied the claim of charging $2 million for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [9]. - China and the EU held the second meeting of the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism [9]. - As of March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 8.8% compared with the previous period [10]. - Iran is reviewing the US letter through mediators, and Trump is shifting from military pressure to negotiation [11]. - An Iranian official said Trump has no right to set conditions for negotiations, and the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [13]. - The so - called negotiation between the Iranian parliament speaker and the US is a false news [13]. - The US Department of Defense is considering deploying a combat brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - DCE adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin of LPG futures contracts [15]. - Many countries are considering increasing oil purchases from Russia, and India is actively considering it [15]. - India is ensuring oil and gas supply, has strategic oil reserves, and is planning to increase them [15]. - As of March 23, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 2.28% compared with last Thursday [17]. - China took temporary regulatory measures on domestic refined oil prices [17]. - Saudi Aramco cut crude oil supply to Asian buyers in April [17]. - The IEA is consulting with Asian and European governments on releasing more reserve oil [17]. Metal Futures - China's polysilicon imports in January - February 2026 decreased compared with the same period last year [19]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reminded members and investors to pay attention to market risks [19]. - A Fed governor said the central bank should not make policies based on short - term factors of the Iran conflict [21]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange stated that lithium carbonate futures delivery products meet the standards [21]. Black - Series Futures - Coke prices in some regions of China are planned to increase [23]. - Rising diesel prices may bring additional fuel costs to iron ore mining enterprises [23]. - China's iron ore arrivals at ports from March 16 - 22, 2026, showed different trends [23][24]. - In mid - March, the social inventory of steel products in 21 cities was flat compared with the previous period, but increased compared with the beginning of the year and the same period last year [26]. Agricultural Futures - In February 2026, China's corn starch imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [28]. - As of March 20, Brazil's soybean shipping plan to China was at a high level in recent years [28]. - Since March, the domestic oil mill operating rate has been rising, and the soybean weekly crushing volume is close to 2 million tons [29]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 68%, and the second - season corn sowing rate was 97% [29]. - As of March 19, 2026, the US soybean exports to China decreased compared with the previous week [31]. - In the third week of March 2026, Brazil's soybean shipments decreased compared with the same period last year [31]. - As of March 21, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 67.7% [32]. Financial Market Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.63% to 3813.28 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also declined. The market turnover was 2.45 trillion yuan [34]. - Although the A - share market was volatile on Monday, many institutions are optimistic about its long - term trend [34]. - The Hong Kong stock market fell, with the Hang Seng Index down 3.54% to 24382.47 points [34]. - Since 2026, 46 listed companies have announced major shareholder share - increasing plans, and related companies have received net margin purchases [36]. - 20 listed companies disclosed share - repurchase plans or progress on March 23 [36]. Industry - Three departments in Beijing约谈ed 12 platform companies and put forward rectification requirements [37]. - The head of the National Data Bureau said it will promote the computing - power and electricity coordination project [37]. - State Power Investment plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, with a 17% year - on - year increase [38]. Overseas - The US vice - president and the Israeli prime minister discussed negotiations with Iran [39]. - The Israeli prime minister said Trump thought there was an opportunity to achieve war goals through an agreement [40]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a military strike on Israel and some US military bases [40]. - Since the start of the conflict, 6848 people were injured and 636 people died in Tehran [40]. - Goldman Sachs said the probability of the US economy falling into recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30% [41]. - A Fed governor thought it was too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy and supported interest - rate cuts [41]. - The Chicago Fed president said inflation was the main risk and did not rule out interest - rate hikes [42]. - The US ambassador to the EU warned the EU about tariffs if it fails to approve the trade agreement [43]. - Japan's largest labor union achieved a 5.26% salary increase, raising expectations of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike [43]. Stock Market - US stocks rose, with the Dow up 1.38%, the S&P 500 up 1.15%, and the Nasdaq up 1.38% [45]. - European stocks showed mixed results, with the German DAX up 1.22%, the French CAC40 up 0.79%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.24% [45]. - Asia - Pacific stocks fell, with the South Korean Composite Index down 6.49%, the Nikkei 225 down 3.48%, and the Indian SENSEX30 down 2.46% [46]. - The US SEC submitted two rule drafts for review, including digital asset regulation [46]. - South Korea is about to launch single - stock leveraged ETFs [46]. - Berkshire Hathaway will invest $1.8 billion in Tokio Marine [47]. - SK Hynix is planning to list in the US and raise funds for capacity expansion [48]. Commodity - Oil prices fell due to the easing of geopolitical concerns [49]. - Precious metal futures fell due to Fed policy uncertainty and other factors [49]. - Base metals rose [49]. - The IEA is consulting on releasing oil reserves, but it cannot fundamentally solve the supply shortage [50]. - The US energy secretary said the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves is low [50]. - Japan is evaluating the feasibility of intervening in the crude oil futures market [52]. - South Korea will control naphtha exports and release strategic oil reserves [53]. Bond - The domestic bond market was under pressure, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds rising [54]. - The People's Bank of China will issue central bank bills in Hong Kong on March 25 [55]. - The trading association optimized the registration and issuance mechanism for debt - financing tools [55]. - The issuance of convertible bonds has accelerated this year [55]. - US bond yields fell [55]. - Japan may cut the repurchase scale of inflation - linked bonds [56]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell on Monday [57]. - The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index rose, while the SDR currency - basket RMB exchange - rate index fell [57]. - The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies showed mixed results [57]. Upcoming Events - A series of economic data will be released at different times, including Japan's CPI, PMI data of various countries, etc. [59]. - There will be speeches by central bank officials and other events, such as the New Zealand Fed governor's speech, and the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 will be held from March 24 - 27 [61].

Group 1 - The core argument of the article emphasizes that "safety" has become the most critical variable in global capital markets, replacing "efficiency" as the most scarce asset, with "safety premium" expected to be the most significant factor in asset pricing in the future [1][7][11] - The ongoing conflict has highlighted the systemic collapse of the old U.S.-centric order based on oil dollars, while China has strategically prioritized safety in its development plans, indicating a shift towards a new order [2][10][49] - China's strategic resource allocation towards safety has resulted in a robust supply chain advantage, positioning it favorably in the global market amidst the turmoil [3][5][56] Group 2 - The article outlines three potential scenarios regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict, with the first being a quick resolution leading to a return to normal oil prices, the second involving a prolonged conflict that disrupts oil supply, and the third being a "chicken game" where neither side backs down [14][27][30] - The potential for a significant supply shock exists if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, which could lead to a drastic revaluation of oil prices, as the current overcapacity of 250 million tons could turn into a severe shortage [21][22][47] - The article warns that if the conflict continues for another ten days, a physical disruption in oil production could occur, leading to a critical supply gap in the market [43][48] Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of rising oil prices on the AI and semiconductor supply chains, highlighting the vulnerability of these sectors due to their reliance on energy from the Gulf region [30][32][38] - A significant disruption in the semiconductor supply chain could lead to a reevaluation of the market capitalizations of major U.S. tech companies, potentially triggering liquidity crises within the financial system [39][63] - The current high inflation and interest rates in the U.S. could exacerbate the situation, leading to a classic stagflation scenario if supply chain disruptions occur [62][71][75] Group 4 - The article posits that Chinese assets are becoming the most reliable safe assets globally, as the U.S. dollar system faces significant challenges due to the ongoing conflict and its implications for global credit [76][78][89] - The shift towards prioritizing safety over efficiency in global economic dynamics is seen as a fundamental change, with China positioned to benefit from this new paradigm [78][88] - The article concludes that the competition between major powers will ultimately favor China, as its supply chain advantages will reshape global asset pricing and order [87][89]

Key Insights - The report highlights the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with President Trump indicating a potential agreement to pause attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days, although Iran denies these discussions [2] - The Chinese government has implemented temporary price controls on refined oil for the first time in 13 years, with adjustments leading to a decrease of 1160 RMB per ton for gasoline and 1115 RMB per ton for diesel [2] - South Korea plans to impose export controls on naphtha due to instability in supply caused by tensions in the Middle East, and will release strategic oil reserves in mid-April [2] - The total volume of iron ore arriving at 47 Chinese ports increased to 23.83 million tons from March 16 to March 22, a week-on-week increase of 661,000 tons [2] Market Performance - The report provides a detailed overview of various commodity sectors, with notable performances including non-metallic building materials up by 2.57%, precious metals up by 25.02%, and energy sector up by 8.79% [4] - The report also notes significant changes in futures contracts, with adjustments in trading margins and price limits for liquefied petroleum gas futures [3] Asset Class Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a daily decline of 3.63% and a monthly decline of 8.40%, while the S&P 500 showed a slight increase of 1.15% on the same day [6] - The report indicates that WTI crude oil prices fell by 9.54% in the daily performance, but showed a year-to-date increase of 54.54% [6] - The CRB commodity index decreased by 4.46% in the daily performance but has increased by 17.39% year-to-date [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Most products are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. For example, oil prices are affected by the US - Iran situation and will fluctuate repeatedly; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are all in an oscillatory state [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, WTI May contract closed down $10.1 to $88.13 per barrel, a decline of 10.28%; Brent May contract closed down $12.25 to $99.94 per barrel, a decline of 10.92%; SC2605 closed at 742.2 yuan per barrel, down 62.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 7.81%. - The US - Iran situation has led to significant oil price fluctuations. The market is affected by news and will oscillate repeatedly [1]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 5.99% to 5060 yuan per ton on Monday, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 3.51% to 5980 yuan per ton. - The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remain strong. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply from the Middle East and Europe has decreased, and high - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore is tight. The short - term cracking spread is expected to remain high [1][3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.59% to 4640 yuan per ton on Monday. - High raw material prices and reduced supply from refineries, along with expected increases in downstream demand, are expected to keep asphalt prices high in the short - term [3]. 3.1.4 Polyester - TA605 closed at 7134 yuan per ton, up 7.28%; EG2605 closed at 5574 yuan per ton, up 4.13%. - Due to upstream raw material supply issues, some production devices plan to reduce loads or shut down. With cost support and downstream demand changes, polyester prices will oscillate widely in the short - term [3]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 145 yuan to 16145 yuan per ton, NR rose 190 yuan to 13055 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 1485 yuan to 17470 yuan per ton. - Tight geopolitical situations, changes in butadiene production, and expected early tapping of natural rubber in China will affect rubber prices. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [5]. 3.1.6 Methanol - The inventory of methanol has started to decline, but the expected resumption of Iranian plants may limit price increases. The unclear Iranian situation may cause significant price fluctuations [6]. 3.1.7 Polyolefin - Upstream plant maintenance and reduced loads will keep production at a low level, while downstream demand is expected to increase. However, rising costs due to geopolitical risks may squeeze downstream profit margins and affect future demand growth [6]. 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China have increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on ethylene - based PVC, but the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC has increased rapidly. The overall market is expected to maintain a de - stocking trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on March 23, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles. For example, the basis of crude oil was 291.81 yuan per barrel on March 23, with a basis rate of 36.25% [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Secretary said that the release of the strategic petroleum reserve is possible but the probability is very low. The Trump administration is taking measures to stabilize the market. - The El Feel oil field in Libya has stopped production due to pipeline damage, and the oil from the Sharara oil field is transported through alternative pipelines [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][15][18]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The basis charts of main contracts of various products are presented, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. are provided, including spreads between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts [38][40][44]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The spread and ratio charts between different varieties are shown, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [53][55][56]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - The production profit charts of LLDPE, PP, etc. are presented, showing the profit changes over time [61]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and analysts for different product segments, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [64][65][66].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices continued to rise, with the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remaining low. On March 18, 3 oil tankers passed through, none of which were crude oil tankers. The average daily tanker traffic volume in the past week was less than 2 vessels, resulting in a de - facto paralysis of navigation. [5] - Trump threatened to strike and destroy various power plants in Iran if it did not resume the passage of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran responded that if its power plants were targeted, it would strike energy and oil facilities in the entire Middle East, leading to a long - term increase in oil prices. [5] - This week, the premium of Oman crude oil rose to $60 per barrel. Affected by the escalation of the Middle East situation, the spread between Brent and WTI reached the highest level in nearly a decade. [5] - On March 20, the United States approved a 30 - day authorization to conditionally relax sanctions on Iranian oil products. [5] - Recently, the global floating storage has significantly reduced its inventory, with an average daily inventory reduction of 1.8 million barrels. Goldman Sachs estimates that there are about 131 million barrels of Russian oil and 105 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea, which can offset the supply interruption in the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. [5] - In the case of a de - facto interruption of the strait, the price in the compliant market still faces an upward drive. Attention should be paid to whether Trump will have constructive dialogues with Iran regarding the strait's navigation and geopolitical situation next week. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Iranian media reported that the US and Israel attacked two energy infrastructure facilities in Iran, including a natural gas company building and a natural gas decompression station in Isfahan, and a natural gas pipeline at the Khorramshahr power plant, with no casualties. [3] - The Trump administration is secretly evaluating the possibility of taking Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf as a potential partner and even a future Iranian leader. [4] - Thousands of US Marines are expected to arrive in the Middle East on Friday. Trump set this day as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. [4] - An Iranian senior official said that Trump has no right to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. Iran and the US have exchanged information through Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions: compensation for losses and recognition of aggression against Iran. [4] - Trump said that he is in consultations with Iran to reach a broader agreement, and the discussions started last Saturday. [5] 2. Weekly Inventory - In the week ending March 13, US crude oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.668 million barrels per day. [5] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449 million barrels, a 1.39% increase. [5] - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 21.041 million barrels per day, a 2.14% increase compared to the same period last year. [5] - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels in the week ending March 13. [5] - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.194 million barrels per day in the week ending March 13, an increase of 772,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [5] - The EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending March 13 was - 5.436 million barrels (expected - 1.607 million barrels, previous value - 3.654 million barrels), and the EIA refined oil inventory was - 2.527 million barrels (expected - 1.525 million barrels, previous value - 1.349 million barrels). [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japan will begin releasing its national oil reserves starting March 26, as announced by Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo during a cabinet meeting regarding the situation in the Middle East [3]. Group 1: National Oil Reserve Release - The release of national oil reserves is part of Japan's response to the current geopolitical situation affecting oil supply [3]. - Japan's total oil reserves, including both national and private reserves, can sustain consumption for 254 days [4]. - The government decided to first utilize private reserves, which were released starting March 16, amounting to approximately 15 days' worth of oil supply [4]. Group 2: Strategic Oil Storage - Japan is also expected to release oil from the "joint reserves" stored by oil-producing countries within Japan during March [3]. - The logistics of moving national reserves from storage bases to refineries is time-consuming, prompting the initial use of private reserves [4].