Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar extraction in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to adjust. It is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [9] - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/2025. China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a significant negative factor. Protein meal prices have fallen to previous lows, and short - term volatility will increase [12] - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak due to high production, low exports, and high inventories in major producing areas, and high domestic inventories. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see for now [18] - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - holiday stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to reach its seasonal peak. The short - term contract may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The long - term contract has positive expectations but with uncertain implementation paths [21] - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption, and the large price difference between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction remains unresolved, and the spot price has limited downward momentum, supporting the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on prices [24] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract was 5,188 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day. The price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was quoted at 5,290 - 5,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. As of December, India's sugar production reached 1.5909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,856 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but an 8.6 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6] Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day [10] - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [11] Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the oils futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,032 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,748 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day [14] - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [15][17] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China were stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.65 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.4 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin. The price in Dongguan rose 0.06 yuan to 3.51 yuan/jin [20] - **Industry Outlook**: The supply is basically normal, the downstream sales speed is acceptable, and most traders' confidence in the future market has slightly recovered. The inventory at each link has slightly increased, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that most egg prices in China will be stable today, with a few rising or falling [20] Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally fell, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan dropped 0.18 yuan to 13.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained at 13.02 yuan/kg [23] - **Industry Outlook**: Currently, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, but the downstream demand support is insufficient, and the market sales are poor. Farmers may have an intention to reduce prices, and pig prices are expected to decline today [23]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间1月20日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，原糖期货跌 1.54%报14.73美分/磅，棉花期货跌0.48%报64.35美分/磅，可可期货跌8.33%报4653.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌2.67%报345.80美分/磅。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market is expected to be bullish due to reduced production and increased exports in Malaysia, while the sugar market is likely to be bearish because of seasonal supply pressure and increased imports [1][2][3] - The hog market is short - term bearish, affected by high supply and insufficient demand; the soybean meal market has a limited rebound and still faces pressure; the egg market is in a weak oscillation; the cotton market continues to decline but the decline slows down [5][7][9][11] 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is strongly rising. In January, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 18.24% month - on - month, and exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% month - on - month. It is expected that the inventory reduction in January may be large. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to look for support levels to buy lightly at low prices, with the support range at 8662 - 8700 [2] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract breaks downward. The southern sugar cane is in the peak crushing season, and the import in December was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The cumulative import from January to December 2025 was 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions, with the resistance area at 5200 - 5240 [3] Hog - The hog main 2603 contract continues to fall sharply. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The overall capacity reduction is slow, and the demand is insufficient. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading, paying attention to whether the 40 - day moving average of 11,500 can support [5] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2605 contract rebounds at a low level but the rebound is limited. The domestic soybean oil mill's crushing volume has decreased, and the inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks. As of the third weekend in 2026, the inventory was 948,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.97%, but the pressure is still large. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to participate in short - selling in the short - term with a stop - loss [7] Egg - The egg main 2603 contract oscillates weakly. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the market trading has weakened. The production - link inventory has increased, and the high inventory still has a large supply pressure. The strategy is short - term trading [9] Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract continues to fall but the decline slows. Some long positions are closing, and the import in December increased by nearly 50% month - on - month, while the annual import in 2025 was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is uncertain about the later-stage state reserve release schedule, and the recent premium transactions of imported soybeans indicate a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts may weaken due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and could decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1]. - In 2026, palm oil production is predicted to grow 1.0% moderately, but due to weak demand, exports will remain low at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks will stay high at 3.18 million tons. Palm oil prices are expected to be between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year. Palm oil's price advantage, upcoming festivals, and the low - production season will support prices. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed by a Chinese importer may affect Australia's sales. Although the Indonesian palm oil B50 plan has failed and the upside potential is limited, there is significant buying support. The cost of crushing Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff is still high, providing strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3) Summaries by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 1.39%, up from 0.53% a week ago, compared to 0.23% last year and 2.38% in 2024, with a five - year average of 1.02% [1]. - The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) will bring continuous rainfall to most parts of Brazil in the next few weeks, affecting the harvest and sowing in major production areas until the second half of January [1]. Vegetable Oils - MBSB predicts a 1.0% moderate growth in palm oil production in 2026, with exports at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks at 3.18 million tons. The price is expected to be 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year [2]. - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton Panamax cargo of Canadian rapeseed after the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which may boost Canadian exports and weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2]. - The failure of Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan limits the upside potential, but there is significant buying support. The high crushing cost of Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff provides strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2].

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 【粕类日报】供应仍有压力 盘面小幅反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2026/1/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 豆粕 | 2903 | 6 | 天津 | 440 | 420 | 2 0 | | 0 5 | 2736 | 9 | 东莞 | 340 | 350 | -10 | | 0 9 | 2853 | 5 | 张家港 | 330 | 330 | 0 | | | | | 日照 | 350 | 350 | 0 | | 0 1 菜粕 | 2217 | 0 | 南通 | 251 | 259 | - 8 | | 0 5 | 2229 | 8 | 广东 | 151 | 149 | 2 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China is relatively strong in the short - term, and the import peanut price is stable. The supply of peanuts is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and the cost of warehouse receipts is expected to be relatively high. The spot prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable, and the theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is good [3][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. First Part - Data - **Futures盘面**: For PK604, the closing price is 7864, up 22 (0.28%), with a trading volume of 21,251 (-26.64%) and an open interest of 28,459 (-2.96%); for PK610, the closing price is 8208, up 2 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 48 (-72.41%) and an open interest of 2,749 (-0.54%); for PK601, some data are unavailable [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi are 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal is 3250, with no change, and the price of Rizhao soybean meal is 3090, down 10. The price of peanut oil is 14320, with no change, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil is 8430, up 50. The import price of Sudanese peanuts is 8600, with no change. The PK04 - PK10 spread is - 344, up 20 [1] 2. Second Part - Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China is relatively strong. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts is 8600 yuan/ton, the price of Brazilian new peanuts is 9200 yuan/ton, and the price of Indian specification peanuts (50/60) is 8000 yuan/ton, all remaining stable. The price of peanuts in Henan has increased by 0.05 yuan/jin. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively stable in the short term. The purchase price of some peanut oil mills is stable, and the prices of peanut oil and soybean oil are also stable. The price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal per unit of protein is low, and peanut meal is relatively strong in the short term [3][5] 3. Third Part - Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Peanut 05 will fluctuate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long lightly at low prices [8] - **Monthly Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [10] 4. Fourth Part - Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [12][18][20]

Report Overview - Date: January 20, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Chunlei from Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The main contract of soybean No. 1, 2605, is stabilizing around 4330, and the spot price is stable. The basis of soybean No. 1 is slightly strengthening, and the futures price is at a discount. The main contract of soybean meal, 2605, is continuously falling, and the spot price is slightly decreasing. The basis is strengthening, and the futures price is at a high discount [4]. - It is expected that soybean No. 1 will fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. Key Points by Category Market Conditions of Soybean No. 1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 1, 2605, is oscillating and stabilizing around 4330, and the spot price in Fujin is around 4400 yuan/ton. The basis is oscillating and slightly strengthening, and the futures price is at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal, 2605, is continuously falling. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton to around 3060 yuan/ton. The basis is oscillating and strengthening, and the futures price is at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - There is a regional differentiation in domestic soybeans, and the remaining grain in Northeast China is accelerating to decline. As of January 16, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang has dropped to 40%, a 4% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it has dropped to 50%, a 1% month - on - month decrease; in Henan and Shandong, it remains unchanged at 55% and 56% respectively. Due to the differentiation in grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continues, and the inventory of Northeast soybeans may approach 30% before the Spring Festival. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auctions have been suspended [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - The auctions of imported soybeans continue, and US soybeans may enter the reserves. On January 13, Cofco auctioned 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold. China continues to purchase US soybeans, and due to the high procurement cost, they may be used for reserve rotation later. The arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills has stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continues to decline. As of January 16, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.755 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 7.721 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are gradually stabilizing. The USDA's January supply - demand report is bearish. The US soybean production is slightly increased, exports are slightly decreased, but the ending inventory is significantly increased. The production of Brazilian soybeans is increased, and the global ending inventory is increased. The negative impact of the report is gradually digested, and attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil Mill Situation - The operating rate of oil mills has rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continues to decline. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market has recently declined. As of January 16, the operating rate of oil mills was 54.86%, a month - on - month increase; the soybean crushing volume was 1.9942 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.8733 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal production was 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 947,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline; the unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.9848 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.94 days, a month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock breeding sector, the pig price has rebounded, and the breeding has turned profitable. As of January 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 48.35 yuan per head, turning profitable; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 7.39 yuan per head, also turning profitable. The data on the inventory of breeding sows in November has not been released yet. From the situation of large - scale farms, the breeding capacity is continuously being reduced, the inventory in December continued to decline month - on - month, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in a year. However, the profitability may slow down the pace of capacity reduction in the later stage. In the poultry sector, the egg price has rebounded, the breeding loss has narrowed, the culling of old chickens has increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. Feed demand remains strong, and feed enterprises are actively stocking up [6]. Market Outlook - The sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated, with tight inventory in the Northeast and firm prices. A large number of imported soybeans are being auctioned in China, and the purchased US soybeans may enter the reserves. The port inventory is declining, the operating rate of oil mills is increasing, the soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean No. 1 will fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut sectors is neutral [1][3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is supported by pre - holiday restocking, while the peanut market is in a stalemate with supply - demand imbalance [1][3] - The soybean futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price was stable in the north and with accelerated trading in the south. Policy support weakened as the state - reserve purchase price did not rise further and some northern direct - purchase warehouses stopped buying [1][2] - The peanut futures price rose slightly. The overall supply in the domestic peanut market is abundant, and the market lacks directional drivers in the short term [3][4][5] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybean No.1 2605 contract was 4321.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 119, a change of + 3 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - The soybean spot market in the Northeast remained stable, with weak demand and low trading activity. Some holders were more willing to sell as the policy - supported purchase price did not increase [1] - The soybean spot market in the South was stable, and trading accelerated due to pre - holiday raw material procurement by downstream enterprises. The prices in the sales areas were also stable, and some enterprises' restocking needs provided support [2] - The state - reserve purchase price did not increase further, and some northern direct - purchase warehouses stopped buying, weakening policy support [2] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7890.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 60.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.77%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8000.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 18.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.23%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 890.00, a change of - 60.00 (+ 7.23%) from the previous day [3] Market Information - The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national market was basically stable. The average contract purchase price of oil - processing peanuts by national oil mills was 7350 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong was stable [3] - The overall supply in the domestic peanut market is abundant. Some holders were more willing to sell due to inventory pressure. The purchase prices of major oil mills for oil - processing peanuts remained stable, but there were vehicle backlogs and returns in some factories [4] - The market lacks directional drivers in the short term as the pre - holiday stocking window is narrowing and weather may affect logistics and trading [4][5] Strategies - The strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [1][3][6] Risks - For peanuts, there is a risk of weakening demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Oils and Fats**: Overall, there are more bearish factors. The upward trend of soybean oil is expected to slow down. For rapeseed oil, the near - term fundamentals are tight but supply has a large recovery expectation. Palm oil has both positive and negative factors, and it can be considered to go long after the market stabilizes. - **Beans and Meal**: The supply of beans in China is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak. Opportunities to short soybean meal and soybeans No.2 can be considered. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, but the domestic market has support. A bullish approach is recommended in the short - term. - **Soybeans No.1**: The valuation is not low and the upward drive is insufficient. It may continue to be weak in the short - term. - **Hogs**: The near - term spot pressure is relieved, and the far - month contract has a premium over the near - term. Investors can consider holding long positions in the far - month. - **Eggs**: Consumption is expected to improve, and supply pressure is relieved to some extent. Aggressive investors can consider going long in some contracts [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybeans No.1 05 | Loosening of traders' price - holding attitude, cautious downstream purchases | 4200 - 4250 | 4400 - 4420 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Soybeans No.2 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean supply, good growth of South American soybeans | 3380 - 3400 | 3500 - 3530 | Weak adjustment | Bearish operation | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | Weakness of adjacent oils, sufficient domestic supply | 7850 - 7880 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Near - term fundamentals are tight but supply may recover | 8700 - 8720 | 9120 - 9150 | Sideways adjustment | Short at high prices | | | Palm Oil 05 | Support from US biodiesel policy and Malaysian palm oil exports, but high inventory suppresses prices | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways movement | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | Sufficient supply, large far - month transactions | 2600 - 2650 | 2780 - 2800 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Bearish sentiment due to Sino - Canadian talks | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish operation | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Support from the decline of high - quality corn supply | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | | Corn Starch 03 | Follows the cost of corn and has support | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Hogs 03 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Light - position trial long | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in new production and expectation of consumption peak | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Buy at low prices | [9] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Most varieties are recommended for wait - and - see, while for corn 3 - 5, it is recommended to short at high prices. - **Inter - variety Spread**: For some oil spreads and oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to take corresponding bullish or bearish operations, and some are recommended for wait - and - see [10][11]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The text provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors [12]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operation rate data of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut, and peanut oil [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operation rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [18]. c. Livestock It provides daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and some key market data such as production cost, profit, and slaughter data [18][19][20][21]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes various charts related to the livestock end (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed end, which help to track the market fundamentals of different varieties [22][31][47]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, and corn [98][99]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities and position volumes of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [103][104][105].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for each variety: short - term decline for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, short - term rebound for palm oil, short - term weakness for soybean oil, short - term oscillation for rapeseed oil, oscillation adjustment for cotton, short - term rebound for red dates, and caution for callback for live pigs [1]. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Although the domestic spot price is resistant to decline, recent domestic reserves release and the successful China - Canada meeting led to a new low in soybean meal prices, and short - selling after continuous decline should be cautious [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a long - term increase in imports. Currently, the supply is tight, but the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see with a bullish view [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of January increased month - on - month, and the production decreased month - on - month, which supports the market. Although Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampens the bullish sentiment, there are still opportunities to go long at low prices, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the pre - holiday stocking makes the domestic spot trading good. If the palm oil data continues to improve, there may be short - term long opportunities [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The easing of China - Canada trade relations may relieve the long - term supply pressure. Considering the current high basis, the decline space is limited, and it may oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - month USDA data is positive for the ICE market, and the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. The domestic market is facing a slowdown in sales, increased raw material inventory pressure, and weakening demand in the off - season. The short - term is expected to adjust weakly, and the medium - to - long - term may recover after the release of negative factors [1][11][13]. - **Red Dates**: With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the futures price fluctuation increases. The accelerated inventory reduction may drive a short - term rebound, but the overall situation is still under pressure in the context of loose supply and demand [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: As it approaches the end of January, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing, and the market sentiment may change. The near - month contract may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contract is also under pressure due to the slow reduction of breeding sows [1][16][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 772100 tons, a decrease of 30700 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 687330 tons, a decrease of 25790 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.62%, and an increase of 165860 tons from last year, an increase of 31.81%; the soybean meal inventory was 94720 tons, a decrease of 9680 tons from last week, a decrease of 9.27%, and an increase of 39050 tons from last year, an increase of 70.15% [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3195.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60000 tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%; the national average spot price was 2388.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.79 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 3.07% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746100 tons, an increase of 10100 tons from last week, an increase of 1.37%, and an increase of 264300 tons from last year, an increase of 54.86% [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%; the national average price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [7]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: As of the relevant period, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5686300 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from the previous value; the Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory was 4706300 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous value [10]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.31%; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.32% [10]. Red Dates - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from the previous week, and 3737 tons higher than the same period [15]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.68%; the price of Aksu general - grade dates was 5.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Sales Data**: As of the relevant period, the national sample - enterprise pig inventory was 3847750, a decrease of 8570 from the previous month, a decrease of 0.22%; the pig slaughter volume was 12330900, an increase of 450900 from the previous month, an increase of 3.80%; the breeding sow inventory was 3990000, a decrease of 45000 from the previous month, a decrease of 1.12% [16]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract LH2603 was 11705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.30%; the national average slaughter price was 13300 yuan/ton, an increase of 530 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 4.15% [16].