每经AI快讯，当地时间8月28日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大 豆期货涨0.07%报1048.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨1.17%报410.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨1.05%报 529.75美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in the international soybean market has improved significantly. The pressure on the supply side has gradually eased, and the carry - over stock provides obvious support at the current price. The domestic soybean market has a high arrival volume and large crushing volume, with obvious inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international sugar price trend. In the oil market, the price of palm oil is supported by the firm price in Indonesia, and the domestic vegetable oil market has different fundamentals. The corn market has different trends at home and abroad, and the pig market supply pressure is expected to improve. The peanut market has a weak downstream consumption, and the egg market has obvious supply - side pressure. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger short - term trend, and the cotton - yarn market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][12][19][26][33][39][49][57][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.09% to 1064.5 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.78% to 291.8 dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: Brazil's soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were adjusted; Argentina's soybean planting area from March to May 2026 is expected to decline; domestic soybean inventory increased slightly, and soybean meal inventory increased [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market supply - demand situation has improved, and the domestic market has inventory accumulation pressure [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Long soy and rapeseed meal on dips for far - month contracts; expand the MRM05 spread on dips; buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, and London white sugar price rose [8]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports increased slightly in the first four weeks of August; domestic processed sugar quotes were stable with general transactions; ICE raw sugar futures + options positions changed [9][10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is affected by the international market [12]. - **Position Recommendations**: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the international market with a small - range oscillating trend; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [13][14][15]. Oilseeds - **External Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices changed [17]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in August; the US may exempt Indonesia's palm oil from tariffs; India's vegetable oil industry hopes to cancel tax credit restrictions; Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, and domestic vegetable oil has different fundamentals [19]. - **Trading Strategies**: Consider buying on dips for short - term oil price corrections; expand the P15 spread on dips; wait and see for options [20][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [24]. - **Important Information**: South Africa's corn harvest will increase; domestic port corn inventory and shipment volume decreased; corn starch inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: US corn has room for rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on CBOT December corn on dips; go long on 01 corn on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29][30]. Pig - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices rebounded in some regions; piglet and sow prices fell; the national average pork price decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure is expected to improve, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Buy far - month contracts on dips; conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; wait and see for options [36]. Peanut - **Important Information**: The national average peanut price fell; peanut production and oil mill demand are limited; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [37][38]. - **Logic Analysis**: New - season peanuts are expected to have sufficient supply, and the market is in a short - term bottom - oscillating phase [39][41]. - **Trading Strategies**: 11 and 01 peanut contracts are in a bottom - oscillating phase, and try short - term long on 05 peanut contracts; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [42][43][44]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in main production and sales areas changed; the number of laying hens increased; egg sales volume decreased; inventory increased; egg farming profit improved [46][47][48]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies; short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; sell out - of - the - money call options [50][51][52]. Apple - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; import and export volume changed; early - maturing apple varieties were on the market, and prices were polarized; apple prices in Shandong were stable, and storage profit decreased [54][55][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term market trend is expected to be slightly stronger [57]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on dips for new - season apples and operate with low - buying and high - selling; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [60][61][62]. Cotton - Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton prices fell [64]. - **Important Information**: US cotton growing conditions improved; India's cotton planting area growth slowed; Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was slower than last year [65][66]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger [67]. - **Trading Strategies**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has changed from loose to tight according to USDA, but the realization of the production cut in some countries is uncertain. In China, the low commercial inventory supports cotton prices in the short - term, yet the new cotton's concentrated listing may bring pressure [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar production forecast is revised down, and the high import volume in China suppresses sugar prices in the short - term. The sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may have a tail - end rise in the fourth quarter [4][6]. - Regarding pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the terminal demand improvement is limited. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,342 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. In July, Bangladesh imported about 139,000 tons of cotton, a 13.0% increase from June and a 1.2% increase from the same period last year [1]. Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's adjustment of cotton production needs verification, but the US cotton balance sheet may improve, supporting international cotton prices. Domestically, the low commercial inventory supports cotton prices, but the new cotton's concentrated listing may bring pressure [2]. Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the peak - season demand. If the demand improves, cotton prices may be strong before the new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure [2]. Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,620 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast was revised down by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons [2][3]. Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil is offset by low cane quality, restricting the decline. For Zhengzhou sugar, the high import volume suppresses prices [4]. Strategy - Be neutral. The sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter [6]. Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,010 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-1.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,735 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,065 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: The pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: The consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8]. Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium term [5] - Protein meal: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas, with domestic spot stronger than the futures [1][6][7] - Corn and starch: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; there is still a downward expectation during the new crop's concentrated listing period; in the long term, the market supports the idea of low - level absorption in the far - month [7][8] - Pigs: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] - Natural rubber: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] - Synthetic rubber: The futures may fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - Cotton: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] - Sugar: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] - Pulp: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] - Logs: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows different trends. Some products are affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies, resulting in fluctuations in prices. The report provides investment suggestions based on the analysis of various factors of different products [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as US monetary policy, crude oil, and soybean weather, domestic and foreign oil and fat markets fluctuate. The export and production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory and import of domestic oils also have an impact on the market [5] - **Outlook**: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust; in the medium term, there is a high probability of continuing to strengthen [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans has rebounded, and Brazilian soybean exports have passed the peak. Domestically, the state reserve will auction soybeans, and the spot is stronger than the futures. The supply gap risk before December has weakened, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [1][7] - **Outlook**: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas. It is recommended that oil mills sell hedging on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price on dips [1][7] 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable with a slight decline. The supply side inventory is digested, and the demand side acceptance of high - priced grain is low. The new crop's production situation is normal, and the supply is expected to increase [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; in the long term, the market supports the far - month low - level absorption idea [7][8] 3.1.4 Pigs - **Logic**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. The demand may increase with the cooling weather, and the "anti - involution" policy is being promoted [9] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price follows the financial market down. The supply and demand side is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [11] - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The futures follow the natural rubber down. The raw material butadiene is short - term tight, providing cost support [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term futures may fluctuate strongly [12] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by upstream ginning mills is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Domestically, the import volume is increasing [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The futures continue to decline, mainly due to the delivery pressure of bleached softwood kraft pulp. The supply and demand change is not significant, and the short - term weakness continues [16] - **Outlook**: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The 09 contract has delivery pressure, dragging down far - month contracts. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but there are still delivery product pressures [17] - **Outlook**: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report monitors data of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [20][38][51] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "strong", "fluctuating strongly", "fluctuating", "fluctuating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation defined as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [167] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 1.84% [169][171]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures saw a decline across all major contracts on August 27, with soybean, corn, and wheat futures all closing lower [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures fell by 0.12%, closing at 1048.25 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures decreased by 0.85%, ending at 406.00 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures dropped by 1.32%, closing at 524.75 cents per bushel [1]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw most contracts rise, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.18% to 16.44 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures experienced a significant increase of 2.94%, closing at $7,837.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures rose by 3.13%, ending at 383.95 cents per pound [1] Group 2 - Cotton futures slightly decreased by 0.09%, closing at 66.65 cents per pound [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: August 27, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14075, down 25; trading volume was 192,722 hands, an increase of 39913; open interest was 508,803, an increase of 739 [3] - CF05 contract closed at 14030, down 25; trading volume was 7,362 hands, an increase of 247; open interest was 55,039, an increase of 188 [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13760, down 20; trading volume was 20,444 hands, a decrease of 2381; open interest was 44,086, a decrease of 12520 [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20095, down 65; trading volume was 81 hands, an increase of 32; open interest was 377, a decrease of 3 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20395, unchanged; trading volume was 1 hand, unchanged; open interest was 6, unchanged [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20205, up 125; trading volume was 33 hands, unchanged; open interest was 517, a decrease of 9 [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15342 yuan/ton, up 107; CY IndexC32S was 20760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 78.90 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21880 yuan/ton, down 11 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 76.57 cents/pound, down 0.68; Indian S - 6 was 54000 rupees/candy, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11030 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was 270, down 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 315, up 5 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 300, down 65; 5 - 9 spread was 190, down 125; 9 - 1 spread was 110, up 190 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6020, down 40; CY05 - CF05 was 6365, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6445, up 145 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1445, up 8; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 794, up 8; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1120, up 11 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In the US cotton main production area (92.9% output share), the average temperature was 83.51°F, 1.82°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.82 inches, 0.06 inches higher. In Texas, the average temperature was 84.78°F, 4.22°F lower, and the average rainfall was 0.51 inches, 0.46 inches higher. The growth progress is lagging, but the good - quality rate is high [6] - As of the week ending August 23, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, 15.8% slower than the same period last year, mainly due to the lag in Mato Grosso [6] - As of August 23, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 10.787 million hectares, 352,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, a 3.2% year - on - year decline. The planting area growth is slowing [7] - The total volume of the 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application basis [7] Trading Logic - Macroscopically, after the recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended by 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still tight, and whether additional sliding - scale tariffs will be issued is the key supply - side factor. Demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August. Overall, the short - term market is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short term with limited upward space [11] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] Cotton Yarn Industry News - This week, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened again. The cotton yarn market had fair transactions, and spinning mills reduced inventory by selling at market prices, but there was resistance to price increases. The yarn price is expected to be stable in the short term [13] - The cotton grey fabric market price was slightly weak, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. Weaving mills mainly digested inventory, and there were no conditions for price increases [13] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.0918, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601C14000 was 10.8%, CF601P13600 was 10%, and CF601P13400 was 10.3% [15] - Option Strategy Suggestion: Today, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7638, and the volume PCR was 0.6056. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [16][17] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [20][23][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - International soybean market supply - demand situation has improved, with supply - side pressure easing, but there are still price adjustment factors at home and abroad. For sugar, international sugar is expected to fluctuate, and domestic sugar will follow the international trend. In the oil market, palm oil may continue to increase production and accumulate inventory, while domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and rapeseed oil is marginally destocked. Corn has a supply shortage in China, and prices may fall. Pig prices have supply pressure but limited downward space. Peanut prices are stable with some downward pressure, and egg prices are under supply - side pressure. Apple prices are expected to be high at the beginning of the new season, and cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][6][12][19][25][35][39][46][56][63] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.14% to 1065 cents/bushel, CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.4% to 296.1 dollars/short ton [2] - **Relevant Information**: EU 2025/26 soybean and rapeseed imports decreased compared to last year; Brazil's soybean exports reached a high in the week of August 25; Argentina plans to reduce soybean planting area; domestic soybean inventory increased slightly, and meal inventory increased [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: International soybean supply - demand is more balanced, but there are price adjustment factors at home and abroad [4][6] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Long bean and rapeseed meal in the far - month contract at low prices; expand the MRM05 spread at low prices; buy call options [10] Sugar - **External Market Change**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, up 0.18%; London white sugar price rose 0.43% [8] - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of August increased slightly; domestic processing sugar quotes were stable; ICE raw sugar futures + options positions changed, with an increase in net short positions [9][11] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but actual sugar production is lower than expected, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices [12] - **Position Suggestion**: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow the international market and fluctuate slightly; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [13][14][15] Oil - **External Market**: CBOT US soybean oil price changed by 0.19%, BMD Malaysian palm oil price fell 0.43% [18] - **Relevant Information**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August; the US may exempt Indonesia's palm oil from tariffs; India's vegetable oil industry calls for tax refund policy adjustment; Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, but Indonesian prices support the market. Domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and rapeseed oil is destocked [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; expand the P15 spread on dips; wait and see for options [19][21] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: CBOT corn futures fell 0.7% [22] - **Important Information**: Russia raised its wheat production forecast; domestic corn prices fell, and the import corn auction had a 15%成交 rate; different types of enterprises' corn consumption changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: US corn may rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [25][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for external 12 - month corn and domestic 01 - month corn; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29][30] Pig - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices in various regions decreased; piglet and sow prices fell; the average wholesale price of pork decreased [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Pig supply increased slightly, and prices are under pressure but with limited downward space [35] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Long in the far - month contract at low prices; conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; wait and see for options [36] Peanut - **Important Information**: Peanut prices fell, new - season peanuts were on the market, oil mill开机率 was low, peanut meal sales were slow, and inventory decreased [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut prices are under pressure, and the 01 - month contract may bottom - oscillate [39] - **Trading Strategy**: Short 11 - month and 01 - month peanuts at high prices, long 05 - month peanuts lightly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [40][41][42] Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices rose in most regions; the number of laying hens increased; egg sales decreased; inventory increased; egg - raising profits improved [43][44][45] - **Trading Logic**: Supply - side pressure is high, and prices are under pressure [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies; short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts before and after the Spring Festival; sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Apple - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; imports increased and exports decreased; early - maturing apples were on the market, and prices were polarized; storage profits decreased [52][53][54] - **Trading Logic**: Spot inventory is low, new - season apple prices may be high at the beginning [56] - **Trading Strategy**: Long at low prices, roll operations; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton fell 1.05% [59] - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings decreased; US cotton growth progress was slow but with a high good - quality rate; China announced the quota for cotton import tariff - rate quota [60][62] - **Trading Logic**: Tariff impact is weakened, supply is tight, and demand is expected to improve [63] - **Trading Strategy**: Both US and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger, wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [5] - **Protein Meal**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [13] - **Cotton**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and bearish when new cotton is listed [13] - **Sugar**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and fluctuate within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: Bullish, recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each product, considering both domestic and international factors [5][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to technical pressure, US soybeans fell on Monday, and domestic oils continued to fluctuate. Macro factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices, as well as industry factors like high soybean good - rate, uncertain export demand, and different supply - demand situations of different oils, affect the market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, US soybean good - rate is high, Brazilian exports are peaking, and CFTC net short positions are decreasing. Domestically, spot is stronger than the futures. It is expected that the outer market will rise more than the inner market, and the basis may bottom out. Suggestions include selling hedges for oil mills and buying basis contracts for downstream enterprises [7] - **Corn/Starch**: The price trend is weak. Supply is gradually tightening, but the market expects a low probability of a supply gap. Demand is weak due to low profits in related industries. New - season corn production is normal, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and may attract long - positions in the long term [7][8] - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant in the short, medium, and long term, but there are policies to guide capacity reduction. Demand may increase with the cooling weather, and there was a 10,000 - ton reserve purchase. It is expected to fluctuate, with the spot and near - term contracts remaining weak and the far - term contracts supported by capacity - reduction expectations [9] - **Natural Rubber**: The price may be affected by weather speculation. It is in the seasonal rising period, and there are various positive factors. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13] - **Cotton**: Supply is tight, and the impact of import quotas is limited. Demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by ginners is rising. It is expected to fluctuate strongly until October and may decline when new cotton is listed [13][14] - **Sugar**: International production in Brazil is increasing, and exports are at a peak. Domestic imports are rising. Supply is increasing, but the short - term downside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: The market has both positive and negative factors. The recovery of hardwood pulp trading and cost support are positive, while over - supply of paper and delivery pressure are negative. It is expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, with rising valuation and reduced supply pressure. However, there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips within the range of 790 - 840 [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Data monitoring is carried out for various products such as oils and fats, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [22][53][73] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include categories such as strongly bullish, bullish with fluctuations, neutral with fluctuations, bearish with fluctuations, and strongly bearish, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method provided [170] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 26, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The agricultural products index also declined by 0.49% on that day, with different historical and recent period fluctuations [172][174]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamentals have no new drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, with a sideways consolidation [2][4] - Soybean meal: CBOT soybeans are strong while DCE soybean meal is weak. Beware of a rebound after an over - decline [2][12] - Soybean: Affected by the atmosphere of the soybean market, it is weak in the short term [2][12] - Corn: It is moving sideways [2][15] - Sugar: Maintain the thinking of range consolidation [2][19] - Cotton: Pay attention to the situation of new crops and the influence of external market sentiment [2][23] - Eggs: The sentiment for the distant end is weak [2][29] - Hogs: The spot performance is below expectations. Short at high prices [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][36] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton (-0.67%), and night - session was 9,488 yuan/ton (+0.68%); soybean oil's daily - session was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00%), and night - session was 8,402 yuan/ton (-1.57%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,470 yuan/ton (-150); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,850 yuan/ton (+130) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 314 yuan/ton [4] Macro and Industry News - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% MoM, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% MoM, and production decreased by 1.21% MoM [5] - Malaysia is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [7] - The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from a 19% tariff [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3974 yuan/ton (-0.60%), and night - session was 3961 yuan/ton (-0.68%); DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session was 3081 yuan/ton (-0.93%), and night - session was 3047 yuan/ton (-1.61%) [12] - Spot: Shandong's soybean meal (43%) was 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 30 to flat compared to the previous day [12] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.95 million tons/day, and the inventory was 98.55 million tons/week [12] Macro and Industry News - On August 26, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher as Chinese trade representatives were to visit the US, but the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans limited the upside [14] Trend Intensity - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; soybean trend intensity: 0 [14] Corn Fundamental Tracking - Futures: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,210 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,210 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2511's daily - session was 2,158 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 2,157 yuan/ton (-0.05%) [16] - Spot: Jinzhou's closing price was 2,250 yuan/ton (0); Guangdong Shekou was 2,360 yuan/ton (0) [16] Macro and Industry News - Northern corn collection prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou's prices increased by 10 yuan/ton; Northeast corn prices were weak, and North China's prices declined [17] Trend Intensity - Corn trend intensity: 0 [18] Sugar Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The main contract price was 5632 yuan/ton (-56) [19] - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5980 yuan/ton (0) [19] Macro and Industry News - Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased; China's July sugar imports were 740,000 tons (+320,000 tons) [19] Trend Intensity - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [22] Cotton Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton (-0.14%), and night - session was 14085 yuan/ton (-0.11%); ICE cotton 12 was 66.67 cents/lb (-1.05%) [23] - Spot: Northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,342 yuan/ton (-20); Southern Xinjiang's was 15,033 yuan/ton (-20) [23] Macro and Industry News - Cotton spot trading was average, and the basis was stable; the cotton yarn market was okay, but the fabric market improved slightly [24] Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity: 0 [27] Eggs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Egg 2509's closing price was 2,916 yuan/500 kg (-1.32%); Egg 2601 was 3,376 yuan/500 kg (-0.53%) [29] - Spot: Liaoning's spot price was 3.20 yuan/jin; Hebei's was 2.69 yuan/jin [29] Trend Intensity - Egg trend intensity: 0 [29] Hogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Hog 2509's closing price was 13,665 yuan/ton (-130); Hog 2511 was 13,860 yuan/ton (-50); Hog 2601 was 14,200 yuan/ton (-40) [32] - Spot: Henan's spot price was 13,730 yuan/ton (-50); Sichuan's was 13,600 yuan/ton (+50); Guangdong's was 14,940 yuan/ton (-200) [32] Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and retail farmers were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited. Short the November contract at high prices; the September contract still had a premium over the warehouse - receipt cost [34] Trend Intensity - Hog trend intensity: -1 [33] Peanuts Fundamental Tracking - Futures: PK510's closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton (+1.20%); PK511 was 7,834 yuan/ton (+0.72%) [36] - Spot: Liaoning's 308 common peanuts were 8,000 yuan/ton (0); Henan's Baisha common peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (0) [36] Spot Market Focus - In Henan, the supply was limited due to rain, and inquiries increased; new peanuts in Jilin were growing well and were expected to be listed in mid - to late September [37] Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [38]