Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely. As of April 11, 2025, the V2505 contract closed at 4,930 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease from last week's close. The implementation of US tariffs on China affected PVC downstream product exports, leading to a significant price drop [9]. - On the supply side, several plants, including Tianjin Bohua, Anhui Huasu, and Ningxia Jinyuyuan, underwent maintenance this week. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.35% to 76.67%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.18% to 79.22%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.79% to 69.98%. On the demand side, the spring promotion of pipe enterprises ended, and some floor enterprises stopped production and waited due to tariff impacts. The downstream product operating rate dropped significantly and was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of April 10, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.16% to 753,200 tons, maintaining a downward trend. In terms of costs, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene declined this week. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 0.27% to 5,487 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method decreased by 1.42% to 5,708 yuan/ton [9]. - In April, domestic PVC plants will undergo concentrated maintenance. Next week, Sichuan Jinlu and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants are planned to stop production, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Affected by tariff shocks, downstream enterprises will mainly wait and see, and the product operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. In terms of costs, power restrictions in Inner Mongolia will affect calcium carbide supply, but the concentrated maintenance of calcium carbide downstream will cause the price to decline slightly. The supply of foreign ethylene is sufficient, and domestic demand is weak, so the price has room to decline. In the short term, V2505 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 4,800 below and resistance around 5,000 above [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, closing at 4,930 yuan/ton on April 11, 2025, down 2.74% from last week [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased; demand - side downstream product operating rate dropped; social inventory decreased; costs of calcium carbide and ethylene methods declined [9]. - **Outlook**: Capacity utilization is expected to continue to decline; downstream product operating rate to remain low; calcium carbide and ethylene prices may decline; V2505 to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, and the registered warehouse receipt volume increased week - on - week [10]. - **Position and Spread**: The net position of the main contract was short, the reduction of buy orders was less than that of sell orders, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [15]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: CFR China quoted at $700 (+0); Southeast Asia quoted at $670 (+0) [22]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: India quoted at $700 (+0); Northwest Europe quoted at $805 (+20); Houston quoted at $670 (-10) [26][30]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: The prices of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in East China declined this week [33]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened, and the futures market remained in a premium state [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide**: Lanthanum coke prices remained stable, and calcium carbide prices declined slightly. The operating rates of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide were 52.63% and 62.38% respectively [42][48]. - **EDC and VCM**: The CIF mid - price of VCM was $530/ton, and the international price of EDC was $226/ton [51]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: PVC capacity continued to increase in 2024, and the output in March was 206,910 tons, up month - on - month [55]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [59]. - **Demand - Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of pipe enterprises increased week - on - week last week, and that of profile enterprises decreased week - on - week [62]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Export**: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [68]. - **Import and Export**: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [71]. - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [76]. - **Cost**: The comprehensive costs of calcium carbide methods in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan increased, and the ethylene method cost in North China decreased [80]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method decreased, and the profit of the East China ethylene method increased week - on - week [84]. 3.6 Options Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.08%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 29.91% [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of tariffs, the domestic and international macro - environment is operating weakly, and the prices of polyolefins continue to decline. With the continuous commissioning of new domestic polyolefin plants and the arrival of the maintenance season for upstream petrochemical plants, the overall supply of polyolefins is acceptable. The downstream start - up of PE is seasonally rising, while that of PP is increasing, and the inventory pressure of polyolefin producers is acceptable with overall inventory destocking. The strategy for plastics is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side trade, and there is no cross - period strategy [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to this section include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - For PE, the operating rate is 82.5% (+0.2%), and the oil - based production profit is 951.8 yuan/ton (+69.7). For PP, the operating rate is 76.4% (+0.0%), the oil - based production profit is 331.8 yuan/ton (+69.7), and the PDH - based production profit is - 45.6 yuan/ton (-118.0). Relevant figures include those showing LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [1][20][23] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures in this section cover HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China [27][34][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 514.6 yuan/ton (-49.8), PP import profit is - 408.8 yuan/ton (-28.0), and PP export profit is 78.2 US dollars/ton (+3.4). Relevant figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR [1][44][55] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 40.6% (-0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.8% (-1.3%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate is 47.6% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.8% (+0.3%). Figures include those showing PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven bag operating rate, PP downstream BOPP operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven bag production gross profit, and PP downstream BOPP production gross profit [1][59][73] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions various types of polyolefin inventory, and relevant figures include PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [75][78][83]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall fundamental situation of LLDPE is bearish, but it is expected to trade sideways today due to factors such as the peak season for plastic film and concentrated new capacity launches [4]. - The fundamental situation of PP is neutral, and it is also expected to trade sideways today with the recovery of downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, both the official and Caixin PMIs returned to the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 reached a record high. The Middle - East situation has deteriorated again, and crude oil has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The government supports domestic consumption through measures such as trade - ins during the Two Sessions in March. New capacity launches are still concentrated in March, the industrial chain inventory is neutral, and the demand for plastic film is in the peak season while other demand is stable. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7900 (-40), with an overall bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2505 contract is 223, with a premium ratio of 2.9%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.1 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade sideways today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Strong basis and macro - policies to promote consumption [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Concentrated new capacity launches, weak crude oil prices, and the impact of additional tariffs [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in February, both the official and Caixin PMIs returned to the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 reached a record high. The Middle - East situation has deteriorated again, and crude oil has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The government supports domestic consumption through measures such as trade - ins during the Two Sessions in March. One set of equipment such as Zhejiang Petrochemical has restarted this week, and three sets of equipment such as Maoming Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly. The industrial chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is good, with the demand for plastic weaving and other products recovering recently. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7380 (+0), with a neutral fundamental situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2505 contract is 52, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 70.1 million tons (+0.5), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade sideways today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Macro - policies to promote consumption and recent demand recovery [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak crude oil prices and the impact of additional tariffs [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a cautious outlook for the polyolefin and styrene industry, suggesting a "watch and wait" strategy for investors [13]. Core Insights - The polyolefin market is experiencing slight price declines due to weak demand and supply adjustments, with LLDPE and PP prices at 7790 CNY/ton and 7291 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting weekly declines of 1.30% and 0.37% [1][2]. - The styrene market shows a mixed trend, with prices recovering slightly after a weak start, closing at 8123 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 0.17% [4][5]. - Overall, the report indicates that while there are signs of demand recovery, supply pressures and cost factors are likely to keep prices under pressure in the short term [3][6]. Summary by Sections Strategy Recommendations - LLDPE: Anticipated short-term weak fluctuations with support at 7500-7550 CNY/ton and resistance at 7900-7950 CNY/ton [13]. - PP: Expected to remain weak with support at 7150-7200 CNY/ton and resistance at 7450-7500 CNY/ton [13]. - Styrene: Predicted to experience low-level fluctuations with support at 7750-7800 CNY/ton and resistance at 8500-8550 CNY/ton [13]. Futures Market Situation - LLDPE futures closed at 7790 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,767,398 contracts and an increase in open interest by 12,358 contracts [14]. - PP futures closed at 7291 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,384,915 contracts and an increase in open interest by 4,613 contracts [15]. - Styrene futures closed at 8123 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,194,964 contracts and a decrease in open interest by 46,650 contracts [15]. Spot Market Situation - The spot price for LLDPE ranged between 8020-8500 CNY/ton, while PP prices varied from 7170-7430 CNY/ton depending on the region [2]. - Styrene spot prices were reported at 8175 CNY/ton in East China and 8375 CNY/ton in South China [5]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Polyethylene production rates decreased slightly to 81.63%, while polypropylene rates increased to 83.48% [2]. - Styrene production rates were reported at 74.68%, with expectations of further supply tightening due to upcoming maintenance [6]. Inventory Levels - As of March 14, total oil inventory was 805,000 tons, with polyethylene trade inventory at 175,940 tons and polypropylene social trade inventory at 46,510 tons [3][6].