文字早评 2025/08/26 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，听取"十五五"时期扩内需稳就业意见建议。郑栅洁表示， 希望企业增强信心、抓住机遇，充分利用国内国际两个市场两种资源，有序开展市场竞争，为扩内需、 稳就业多作贡献； 2、相关部门近期将会发放卫星互联网牌照。专家表示，牌照的发放，意味着我国卫星互联网商业运营 迈出第一步; 3、沪指 3900 点在望，两市 ETF 交投火爆，收盘成交额达到 5558.48 亿元。全市场 ETF 规模前一个交易 日已经达到 4.97 万亿，即将突破 5 万亿元； 4、百济神州：RoyaltyPharma 同意在交割时支付 8.85 亿美元 购买单克隆抗体 Imdelltra 在中国以外 地区的特许权使用费。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.12%/0.05%/-0.26%/-0.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.61%/-1.08%/-2.40%/-4.07%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.88%/-1.51%/-2.88%/-4.94%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.07%/0.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs; domestically, watch the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term. Consider the stock - bond seesaw effect and go long on dips [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Maintain a bullish view on silver. Suggest going long on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak. For example, copper, aluminum, and zinc are under pressure, while lead shows relative strength [8][9][10]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices may be affected by policies and demand. Iron ore prices are short - term strong. Glass and soda ash have different trends based on supply and demand [21][23][25]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy chemicals have different trends. For example, rubber may be bullish in the medium - term, while crude oil is in a multi - empty game [34][39]. - **Agricultural Products**: The livestock market is in a stalemate, and the egg market is expected to be stable. The soybean meal market is multi - empty intertwined, and the oil market is expected to fluctuate [52][53][55]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Equity Index**: In June, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates. The central bank will adjust policies according to the situation. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, watch the July meeting. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Monday, bond futures declined. In June, social financing and money supply grew. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. China's exports and imports increased in June. Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term, and consider the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined slightly. Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are mixed. Maintain a bullish view on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. LME and domestic inventories increased. Expect copper prices to be weak and volatile [8]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased more than expected. Expect aluminum prices to be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore supply is loose. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - **Lead**: Lead supply is relatively loose, but battery demand is improving. LME lead shows strength, while Shanghai lead's upside is limited [12]. - **Nickel**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are under pressure. Suggest going short on nickel on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Supply is low, and demand is weak. Expect tin prices to be weak and volatile [14]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Lithium prices rebounded. Supply is expected to remain high. Suggest paying attention to news and market sentiment [15]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Suggest going short on rallies considering the over - capacity situation [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is the traditional off - season for stainless steel. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [17]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is the off - season. Supply and demand are weak. Prices face resistance [18][19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. Supply and demand decreased, and inventories are at a low level. Follow policy signals and demand recovery [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Supply is stable, and demand decreased. Expect prices to be strong in the short - term [23][24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded due to policy expectations. Soda ash prices are expected to be weak due to supply and inventory pressure [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Prices rose slightly. Suggest waiting and watching due to the uncertain trend [27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. The industry has over - supply and insufficient demand. Suggest using the rebound for hedging [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU rose significantly. Suggest a bullish medium - term view and a neutral - to - bullish short - term view [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, while INE crude oil prices rose. The market is in a multi - empty game. Suggest waiting and watching [39]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to be weak due to supply and demand. Suggest waiting and watching [40]. - **Urea**: Prices have support but limited upside. Suggest going long on dips [41]. - **Styrene**: Prices may follow the cost side. BZN is expected to repair [42]. - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand. Prices are expected to be weak [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand are changing. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [45]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. Suggest going long on dips following PX [46]. - **Para - xylene**: PX is expected to destock in the third quarter. Suggest going long on dips following crude oil [47]. - **Polyethylene PE**: Prices may fluctuate due to trade policies and inventory [48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July. LL - PP spread may widen [50]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Pig prices may be stable or decline. Short - term long positions may have space, but there are medium - term risks [52]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be stable. Suggest waiting for a rebound to go short [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is multi - empty intertwined. Suggest going long on dips [54][56]. - **Oils**: EPA policy is positive, but there are still bearish factors. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [57][59]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices may decline. Import pressure may increase [60][61]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices may fluctuate. There are potential bearish factors [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin industry currently lacks positive drivers. Plastics are slightly better than PP. There is an opportunity to focus on the upward trend of the plastic - PP spread [1]. - For polyethylene (PE), the cost support from crude oil has weakened. Although supply pressure is expected to decrease, demand support is limited. Short - term prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the positive spread opportunity of the 09 - 01 contract. - For polypropylene (PP), the cost support has weakened. Although the supply pressure is expected to ease, the restart of previous maintenance devices and the expansion of a 90 - million - ton/year device in mid - to - late July will weaken the positive impact on the supply side. Demand support is insufficient. Temporarily lacking positive drivers, PP prices may fluctuate downward, and the plastic - PP 09 contract spread may have an upward trend [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Polyethylene (PE) - Cost: Geopolitical premium has temporarily left. OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices, and the EIA US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased. The refined oil cracking spread has not improved, and the global tariff trade situation still poses concerns about demand. Crude oil prices may decline, providing insufficient support for plastics [7]. - Supply: Current production is at a high level in recent years, with weekly capacity utilization and production increasing month - on - month. However, the restart expectation of previous maintenance devices is low, and there are new device maintenance plans, which support prices [7]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up of PE has slightly decreased and is still lower than the same period in previous years. The off - season atmosphere continues, and terminal consumption is mainly on a "use - as - you - go" basis, with weak downstream orders [7]. - Import and Export: The import profits of LLDPE and HDPE have rebounded month - on - month, and the import profit of LDPE has increased [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory has increased month - on - month, and trade inventory is still accumulating [7]. - Gross Margin: Oil - based profits have increased, while coal - based profits have declined [7]. - Spread: The 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend [7]. 3.1.2 Polypropylene (PP) - Cost: Geopolitical premium has temporarily left. OPEC+ production increase and the high US crude oil inventory put pressure on oil prices. The refined oil cracking spread has not improved, and the global tariff trade situation still affects demand. The coal market is stable. Overall, the cost support for PP has weakened [9]. - Supply: PP capacity utilization and production have decreased month - on - month but are still at a high level in recent years. There are many device maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the impact of the expansion of a 90 - million - ton/year device in mid - to - late July on the East China market supply [9]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up rate has declined. Downstream raw material inventory has decreased, finished product inventory pressure is not large, and orders are generally weak [9]. - Import and Export: The import profit loss has widened month - on - month, and the export profit has slightly increased [9]. - Inventory: PP production enterprise inventory has different trends, trader inventory has slightly increased, and production enterprise inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in recent years [9]. - Gross Margin: Except for the decline in coal - based profits, oil - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP profits have increased [9]. - Spread: Similar to PE, the 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend [9]. 3.2 Next Week's Focus - On Wednesday (July 9): API and EIA crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4, EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending July 4, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending July 4, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, China's CPI annual rate in June, and the end of the US reciprocal tariff suspension period. - On Thursday (July 10): Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5, EIA natural gas inventory in the US for the week ending July 4, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in June. - On Friday (July 11): IEA's monthly crude oil market report. - On Saturday (July 12): US oil rig count for the week ending July 11 [12]. 3.3 Polyethylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Spot prices have declined, and futures prices have fluctuated. As of July 4, the LLDPE futures main contract 09 was reported at 7282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous week. The LLDPE basis was - 2 yuan/ton, with little change from the previous week [15]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of the week ending July 4, due to the restart of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Shanghai SECCO, polyethylene production was 61.9 million tons, an increase of 2.36 million tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, an increase of 0.77% from the previous period [19]. - Maintenance Loss: As of the week ending July 4, the domestic polyethylene maintenance loss was 11.03 million tons, a decrease of 2.57 million tons from the previous period. The estimated maintenance loss next week is 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.97 million tons from this week [23]. - Downstream Start - up: As of the week ending July 4, the overall downstream start - up rate of polyethylene was 38.05%, a decrease of 3.18% from the previous week, still lower than the same period in previous years. The agricultural film start - up rate decreased by 0.26%, and the PE packaging film sample enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.5% [33]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, the agricultural film raw material inventory increased by 0.14 days to 8.18 days, the PE packaging film raw material inventory increased by 0.11 days to 8.04 days, and the PE pipe raw material inventory decreased by 0.07 days to 7.13 days [35]. - Import Profit: On July 4, the import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE were - 6 yuan/ton (a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous week), 126 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 604 yuan/ton (an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [44]. - Profit Margin: As of the week ending July 4, the oil - based linear cost was 7646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 338 yuan/ton from the previous period; the coal - based linear profit was 5869 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton from the previous period [46]. - Futures Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, the plastic futures trading volume increased by 13,215 lots to 355,370 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest decreased by 22,961 lots to 580,694 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 100 to 5,831 lots [51][53]. 3.4 Polypropylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Polypropylene spot prices have weakly declined, with a price fluctuation range of 7166 - 7204 yuan/ton. As of July 4, the PP futures main contract 09 was reported at 7078 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous week. The term basis has narrowed, and the East China polypropylene basis has weakened to 64 yuan/ton [55]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of the week ending July 4, domestic polypropylene production was 77.37 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons or 1.96% from the previous week; compared with the same period last year, it increased by 12.52 million tons or 19.31%. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous period [59]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 4, the domestic polypropylene device weekly loss was 21.632 million tons, a 11.93% increase from the previous week. Next week, the maintenance loss is expected to decline. The average capacity utilization rate is expected to slightly rebound to around 77.5% [63]. - Downstream Start - up: As of the week ending July 4, the overall downstream start - up rate of PP decreased. The plastic weaving start - up rate decreased by 1% to 42.2%, the BOPP start - up rate decreased by 0.14% to 60.27%, and the injection molding product start - up rate decreased by 0.72% to 51.33% [67]. - Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory and Orders: As of the week ending July 4, downstream raw material inventory decreased, finished product inventory pressure was not large, and orders were generally weak. The average order days of the polypropylene downstream product industry were 7.59 days, a 1.30% decrease from the previous week, and the downstream average start - up rate is expected to continue to decline next week [70]. - Inventory: As of July 4, polypropylene commercial inventory was 78.58 million tons. Production enterprise total inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 57.01 million tons, trader inventory increased by 1.46 million tons to 14.97 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons to 6.57 million tons [77]. - Import and Export Profits: As of the week ending July 4, the PP import gross margin was - 523 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month - on - month. The export profit was - 1.59 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous period [81]. - Futures Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, the PP futures trading volume decreased by 16,487 lots to 255,730 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest increased by 770 lots to 593,335 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 112 lots to 7,292 lots [90][92][94]. 3.5 Spread Tracking - The 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend. As of July 4, the plastic 09 - 01 futures contract spread was 39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. The PP 09 - 01 futures contract spread was 36, a decrease of 26 from the previous week. The 09 - contract L - PP spread was 204 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [97][101].