1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term due to the game between weak current reality and strong long - term expectations, but the high domestic inventory may suppress the upward space [11]. - The corn price is in a high - level oscillation pattern, and market sentiment is affected by external markets and policy rumors. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy trends [11]. - The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to the contradiction between the support from oil mills and weak consumption [11]. - The live - pig market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - The egg price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - The jujube market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - The cotton price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. - The caustic soda export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - The double - offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - The urea price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. - The precious metals prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - The copper and aluminum prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - The alumina supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - The ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - The lithium carbonate price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. - For options, trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - The stock index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,216.00 | 1,230.00 | -14.0 | -1.138% | | Coke | 1,740.50 | 1,761.00 | -20.50 | -1.164% | | Natural Rubber | 16,505.00 | 16,460.00 | 45.0 | 0.273% | | No. 20 Rubber | 13,690.00 | 13,635.00 | 55.0 | 0.403% | | Plastic | 8,800.00 | 8,767.00 | 33.0 | 0.376% | | Polypropylene (PP) | 9,208.00 | 9,120.00 | 88.0 | 0.965% | | PTA | 6,748.00 | 6,778.00 | -30.0 | -0.443% | | PVC | 5,613.00 | 5,650.00 | -37.0 | -0.655% | | Asphalt | 4,490.00 | 4,543.00 | -53.0 | -1.167% | | Methanol | 3,229.00 | 3,202.00 | 27.0 | 0.843% | | Ethylene Glycol | 5,109.00 | 5,058.00 | 51.0 | 1.008% | | Styrene | 10,343.00 | 10,046.00 | 297.0 | 2.956% | | Glass | 1,036.00 | 1,036.00 | 0 | 0 | | Crude Oil | 744.60 | 733.10 | 11.50 | - | | Fuel Oil | 4,445.00 | 4,393.00 | 52.0 | 1.184% | | Soda Ash | 1,227.00 | 1,225.00 | 2.0 | 0.163% | | Pulp | 5,170.00 | 5,156.00 | 14.0 | 0.272% | | LPG | 6,550.00 | 6,541.00 | 9.0 | 0.138% | | Caustic Soda | 2,469.00 | 2,509.00 | -40.0 | -1.594% | | PX | 9,738.00 | 9,774.00 | -36.0 | -0.368% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No. 1 | 4,591.00 | 4,627.00 | -36.0 | -0.778% | | Yellow Soybean No. 2 | 3,739.00 | 3,746.00 | -7.0 | -0.187% | | Soybean Meal | 2,937.00 | 2,952.00 | -15.0 | -0.508% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,319.00 | 2,344.00 | -25.0 | -1.067% | | Soybean Oil | 8,660.00 | 8,646.00 | 14.0 | 0.162% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,844.00 | 9,840.00 | 4.0 | 0.041% | | Palm Oil | 9,648.00 | 9,614.00 | 34.0 | 0.354% | | White Sugar | 5,441.00 | 5,463.00 | -22.0 | -0.403% | | Yellow Corn | 2,365.00 | 2,376.00 | -11.0 | -0.463% | | Corn Starch | 2,759.00 | 2,765.00 | -6.0 | -0.217% | | Cotton No. 1 | 15,355.00 | 15,420.00 | -65.0 | -0.422% | | Cotton Yarn | 21,495.00 | 21,640.00 | -145.0 | -0.670% | [4] 3.3 Macro - News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication [7]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Iran put forward four conditions for a cease - fire [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle - East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [9]. - 96 central departments publicly disclosed their 2026 budgets, and the "Three Public Expenses" budget decreased by 7.2% year - on - year [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.4 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the game between short - term supply pressure and long - term supply tightening expectations. The upper pressure is around 5500 yuan, and the lower support is around 5400 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy. The lower support is in the 2350 - 2360 yuan/ton range [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The lower support is around 8000 yuan, and the upper pressure is the previous high [11]. - **Live - Pig**: The market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - **Jujube**: The market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Caustic Soda**: The export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - **Ferroalloy**: The prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. 3.4.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: Trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - **Stock Index**: The index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran is causing significant impacts on global financial and commodity markets. It has led to increased oil prices, reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, and concerns about inflation and economic slowdown. - Different industries are affected differently by the geopolitical situation. Some industries, such as energy and metals, are more directly impacted by the conflict, while others, like agriculture, are also influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics and policy changes. - For most commodities, short - term price movements are highly volatile, and investors need to pay close attention to geopolitical developments, supply - demand changes, and cost factors. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: News includes Iran's plan to levy tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, potential US military actions, Alibaba's revenue target, and the success of Lilly's new drug in clinical trials [2]. - **策略观点**: Amid the US - Iran conflict, oil prices are rising, Fed rate - cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing. In China, exports are resilient, and PPI is narrowing. Investors should monitor the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: Treasury bond futures prices showed small changes on Thursday. Fiscal revenue data from January to February and Japan's central bank's interest - rate decision were reported. The central bank conducted 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 115 billion yuan [5]. - **策略观点**: Economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery is uncertain. Inflation pressure may weigh on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Shanghai gold and silver prices declined, while COMEX gold and silver prices rose. Central banks around the world maintained interest rates, and the US issued a new license for Russian oil. The US and Israel's military actions against Iran continued [7]. - **策略观点**: The US - Iran war has made central banks vigilant about inflation. The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and the stance of other central banks put pressure on precious metal prices. A cautious bearish strategy is recommended [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Middle East conflicts led to a sharp decline and subsequent recovery in copper prices. LME inventory increased, while domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased. Spot premiums changed, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed [10]. - **策略观点**: The risk of conflict escalation and high oil prices suppress sentiment. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but domestic demand is improving. Copper prices need a more favorable macro environment to stabilize and rise [11]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices dropped due to the Middle East conflict. LME inventory decreased, and domestic downstream开工率 increased. Aluminum ingot and rod inventories changed, and spot premiums narrowed [12]. - **策略观点**: The risk of conflict escalation remains, but the suspension of attacks on Iran's energy facilities eases concerns. Overseas supply is still threatened, and domestic demand is improving. Aluminum prices are supported [13]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined. LME and domestic inventories, as well as basis and spreads, were reported. Social inventory decreased, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices [14][15]. - **策略观点**: Zinc concentrate inventory increased slightly, and smelting profits are low. The industry is weak, and geopolitical conflicts and inflation concerns put pressure on zinc prices. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [15]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices fell. LME and domestic inventories, basis, and spreads were reported. Social inventory decreased [16]. - **策略观点**: Lead concentrate inventory decreased slightly, and smelting profits were affected. Downstream demand improved slightly, but the inflow of overseas inventory may suppress prices. Short - term prices are supported, but further declines are possible [16]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices declined. Spot premiums and cost factors were reported [17]. - **策略观点**: Supply from some Indonesian plants is expected to be tight, but geopolitical risks and high inventory levels may lead to price fluctuations. A high - sell and low - buy strategy is recommended [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices dropped. SHFE and LME inventories changed. Supply is in a post - holiday recovery phase, and demand is weak [19]. - **策略观点**: Supply is still tight, and demand is weakly recovering. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at high levels [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: Lithium carbonate prices declined. Production and inventory data were reported [21]. - **策略观点**: The Iran situation affects metal prices. Supply and demand are both strong, and prices have some support. Attention should be paid to market changes [21]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined. Spot and futures prices, as well as basis, were reported [22]. - **策略观点**: The policy on bauxite exports in Guinea may affect prices. Supply is tightening in the short term but remains in a long - term surplus. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [23]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined. Spot and futures prices, as well as inventory data, were reported [24]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical tensions and supply - demand dynamics lead to price volatility. Supply is increasing, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. Prices are expected to remain volatile [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. Inventory and trading volume data were reported [25]. - **策略观点**: Cost support and improving demand may support prices in the short term [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Steel prices were slightly down. Spot and futures prices, as well as inventory and trading volume data, were reported [29]. - **策略观点**: The real estate market is still weak, and steel demand is limited. The steel market is in a weak - balance state, and attention should be paid to demand release and raw material price changes [30]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined slightly. Spot and futures prices, as well as basis and inventory data, were reported [31]. - **策略观点**: Overseas supply is fluctuating, and demand is recovering. Geopolitical conflicts and negotiation issues may cause price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress and geopolitical developments [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: Coking coal prices rose slightly, and coke prices fell slightly. Spot and futures prices, as well as basis and inventory data, were reported [34]. - **策略观点**: Coking coal prices are affected by energy sentiment, and coke prices follow coking coal. In the short term, demand is restricted by inventory, but there may be upward price impulses. In the long term, coking coal prices are expected to rise [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined. Spot and futures prices, as well as inventory and trading volume data, were reported [39][40]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical tensions affect energy prices, which in turn impact glass and soda ash. Glass prices are expected to be volatile, and soda ash prices are expected to be weak in the short term [39][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. Spot and futures prices, as well as basis and inventory data, were reported [42]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical conflicts drive market sentiment. Manganese silicon has a loose supply - demand structure, while ferrosilicon has a better fundamental situation. Attention should be paid to cost and supply - side factors [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices also dropped. Spot and futures prices, as well as inventory and trading volume data, were reported [46][48]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon has a weak supply - demand situation, and cost support is relatively strong. Polysilicon has a weak fundamental situation, and prices are under pressure [47][49]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The Middle East situation causes concerns about the economic outlook. Natural rubber has different views from bulls and bears. Tire enterprise开工率 and inventory data were reported [51][52]. - **策略观点**: The market is volatile, and a flexible trading strategy is recommended. Short - term trading with stop - loss is advised, and certain hedging positions can be held [53]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices rose. US inventory data were reported [54]. - **策略观点**: A bearish strategy for crude oil is recommended. Strategies such as widening price spreads and short - selling cracking spreads are proposed [56]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices changed. Spot and futures price data were reported [57]. - **策略观点**: Methanol already includes geopolitical premiums, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [58]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices changed slightly. Spot and futures price data were reported [59]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is balanced, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to demand changes [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61][62]. - **策略观点**: The profit of non - integrated styrene production is neutral to high. Supply is relatively abundant, and demand is improving. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [63]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [64]. - **策略观点**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is high, but there are expectations of production cuts and seasonal maintenance. Supply and demand are affected by geopolitical and export factors. Prices may rebound in the short term, but risks should be noted [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [66]. - **策略观点**: The industry is entering the maintenance season, and imports are expected to decline. Downstream demand is recovering, and inventory is expected to decrease. However, short - term price increases are significant, and risks should be noted [68]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [69]. - **策略观点**: PTA is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and processing fees are difficult to increase. PXN may rise, but short - term price increases are significant, and risks should be noted [70]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [71]. - **策略观点**: PX load is expected to decline, and it is entering a de - stocking cycle. Valuation is expected to rise, but short - term price increases are significant, and risks should be noted [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices rose. Spot and futures prices, as well as supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [73]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical conflicts affect prices. Supply pressure is relieved, and demand is improving. A short - selling strategy for the spread between different contracts is recommended [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices rose. Spot and futures prices, as well as supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [75]. - **策略观点**: Cost and supply - demand factors affect prices. Short - term price movements are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and long - term price movements are affected by production and demand mismatches [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: Pig prices continued to decline. Regional price data were reported [78]. - **策略观点**: The supply of live pigs is still high, and the support from secondary fattening is limited. The spot market may remain weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy for the near - term contracts is recommended, and a wait - and - see strategy for the far - term contracts [79]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: Egg prices were stable or rising. Regional price data were reported [80]. - **策略观点**: Egg supply is still high, and the price increase space and sustainability are uncertain. A short - selling strategy for the near - term contracts is recommended, and attention should be paid to cost factors for the far - term contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: Forecasts of US crop planting areas, export data, and global soybean production and inventory data were reported [82]. - **策略观点**: The USDA report is neutral. Geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, and a short - term wait - and - see strategy is recommended [84]. Oils and Fats - **行情资讯**: Policies and production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia were reported [85]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical factors drive oil prices up. In the medium term, oil prices are expected to rise [86]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: Import, production, and inventory data of sugar in China, India, and Thailand were reported [87]. - **策略观点**: The potential reduction in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil may lead to sugar production cuts. In China, the pressure of production increase is relieved, and sugar prices may rebound. A buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [89]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: Import, export, and inventory data of cotton were reported. The US production forecast and global inventory - consumption ratio were also reported [90]. - **策略观点**: The new import quota is a short - term negative factor for cotton prices. The medium - term price trend depends on downstream开机率. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, including chemical and agricultural products [4]. - It also covers macro - economic news such as international relations, inflation data, and energy - related events [7][8][9]. - For different commodities, it analyzes their fundamentals, price trends, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk points [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. - In the financial market, it analyzes the performance of stock index futures and options, and gives trading suggestions [16][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Products - **Price Changes**: On March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, prices of some chemicals like methanol, plastic, and polypropylene PP increased, while natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and styrene decreased [4]. - **Analysis of Specific Products**: - **Caustic Soda**: The market has an optimistic price expectation, but attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export orders, inventory changes, and device maintenance progress. There is a risk of near - month contract callback if the futures price is much higher than the spot price [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is still strong, with an upward - biased oscillation. The demand side is supported by the expected increase in daily iron - water production [13][14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price dropped, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. It is expected to continue the weak oscillation, and there is a risk of further price decline if demand does not improve [14]. - **Urea**: The market price is weakly stable. Supply is relatively sufficient, and industrial demand is marginally increasing. There is a risk of futures price callback at high levels [14]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Price Changes**: On March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, prices of some agricultural products like yellow soybean No. 1, yellow soybean No. 2, and soybean meal decreased, while white sugar increased [4]. - **Analysis of Specific Products**: - **White Sugar**: After a technical correction, attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton. There are risks from domestic supply pressure and overall commodity market sentiment [11]. - **Corn**: It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support in the 2360 - 2370 area [11]. - **Peanut**: It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [11]. - **Pork**: The overall spot market has an oversupply situation, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, constantly seeking new support through decline [11]. - **Egg**: The spot price has ups and downs. The futures price is short - term oscillating strongly, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [13]. - **Red Date**: The spot price is temporarily stable, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low [13]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. It is advisable to consider long - position layout near the lower limit of the price range, but pay attention to the pressure from the high internal - external price difference [13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are oscillating at high levels with large fluctuations. There are both supportive and suppressive factors [14]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The aluminum price is relatively strongly supported by fundamentals, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return [14]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand situation has not changed much. There are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea, and a long - position bias at low prices is recommended [14][15]. 3.4 Steel and Iron Alloys - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price is oscillating slightly upward. The raw material price is strong, providing cost support. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand and inventory changes [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The alloys rebounded strongly on Tuesday. They are indirectly benefited from the energy premium caused by geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to take a long - position bias on corrections, but not to chase high prices [15]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct range operations, paying attention to the pressure at 160,000 yuan/ton and the support at 154,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. 3.6 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 17, A - share market indexes declined. Different stock index futures and options have different performance in terms of position, trading volume, and basis. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - straddle positions to short volatility [16][17]. - **Stock Index**: The market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East conflict and energy prices. It is recommended to control positions, pay attention to the low - volume signals of mainstream wide - based ETFs, and conduct low - absorption and rolling operations [17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views - The reports mainly focus on the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of plastic L and PP. The overall view is to provide investment suggestions based on the current market situation and various influencing factors, with many suggestions to hold long positions in the L and PP 2605 contracts [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The price of LLDPE market fluctuates, and the trading volume is affected by factors such as factory procurement enthusiasm and petrochemical factory price adjustment. For example, on March 26, the L main 2605 contract closed at 8570 points, up 154 points or 1.83%. The LLDPE market price fell back, and the trading volume was affected by the low enthusiasm of factory procurement [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP market is also affected by factors such as supply - side reduction expectations, cost support, and downstream acceptance of high - priced goods. For example, on March 26, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 8755 points, up 152 points or 1.77%. The domestic PP spot fluctuated slightly, and the downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was weak [1] Important News - **Industry - related**: The ethylene industry has a new round of production capacity expansion during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. Northeast Asia and North America lead the expansion. By the end of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the global ethylene production capacity will reach 240 million tons per year [6] - **Project - related**: On March 5, 2026, the 100,000 - ton polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) project of Ningxia Shuangying New Material Technology Co., Ltd. started construction, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan and an expected annual output value of 1.5 billion yuan [9] - **Policy - related**: The EU has approved a draft implementation act on the accounting rules for the minimum recycled content of plastic beverage bottles, which will affect the PET recycling industry [55] Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was +0.6%, and the increase has narrowed for 3 consecutive months, which is negative for commodities [2] - **Industry - specific Data**: In March, the daily average output of domestic LLDPE decreased to 46,900 tons, with a year - on - year increase of +11.9%, and the growth rate has slowed down for 6 consecutive months, which is positive for L [22] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: For the L main 2605 contract, most of the time it is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - loss points. For example, on March 26, it is recommended to hold long positions and set the stop - loss at 8220 points [2] - **Arbitrage**: For the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract, it is often recommended to hold short positions and set stop - loss points. For example, on March 26, it is recommended to hold short positions and set the stop - loss at - 67 points [2] - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, global risk appetite is disturbed, oil prices are rising, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. - The inflation rebound still exerts potential pressure on the bond market. The endogenous power of economic recovery is not yet solid, and the strength of the credit start is weak. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short-term market risk aversion sentiment is favorable for the bond market to rise. However, if the conflict lasts longer than expected, inflationary pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - The strengthening of the US dollar index and the rise of the 10-year US bond yield have significantly suppressed the prices of gold and silver. If the US bond yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, the price of gold still has the risk of further decline. However, once the interest rate expectation changes significantly or the market risk aversion sentiment heats up again, the price of gold may rise again [7][8]. - The US's tough stance on the Middle East war has softened. Although risk appetite has been frustrated under the disturbance of the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute has strengthened to support the copper price. The short-term support for the copper price is strong, and it is expected to run in a range [11]. - The supply of aluminum in the Middle East is worried due to the closure risk of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East war. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be strong and run in a range [13]. - The zinc industry in China remains weak. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is still worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. During the conflict, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sector sentiment [15]. - Although there has been a large accumulation of lead ingots at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The smelting profit of smelting enterprises that is declining marginally may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [16]. - In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia is gradually implemented, and the price center of nickel ore is rising. It is expected that the nickel price will slowly fluctuate upward. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the inventory still maintains a small increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate to digest the inventory pressure. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [17]. - Under the background of macro - easing and general price increases in the semiconductor industry, the market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong. However, it should also be noted that the supply and demand of tin ingots are marginally loose, and the inventory has steadily increased recently. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. It is expected that the tin price will run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The tension in the Iran situation has led to a significant correction in lithium carbonate and other previously rebounding varieties. The lithium price callback may release spot buying. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market in the future [20]. - The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end continues to be in surplus, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the disk suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock [22]. - With the continuous intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, non - ferrous metals are generally under pressure to fall back. The supply - side pressure of stainless steel has increased significantly, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a volatile upward pattern [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong. After the festival, the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises will promote the improvement of demand. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to be strong [26]. - The current fundamentals of the black system are significantly weaker than expected before the festival. In the short term, the core contradiction is still inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, the price is unlikely to reverse the trend and is likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern [29]. - After the end of the weather influence, the overseas supply recovers, and the high inventory suppresses the price increase. The iron water production on the demand side recovers well. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in March [31]. - In the short term, the coking coal and coke market may continue to fluctuate and reduce volatility, and the black sector is in a weak state. There is a risk of a phased correction in coking coal in the short term, but it is expected to have a relatively smooth upward market in 2026, especially from June to October [36]. - The glass market is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern in the short term due to high inventory and slow demand release. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock pattern due to the expected reduction in supply and slow demand release [38][40]. - In the long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue, but the short - term market may continue to fluctuate and reduce volatility. The black sector is in a weak state. The future trend of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore supply and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [43][44]. - The industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price will fluctuate weakly. The polysilicon price is expected to continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new "anti - involution" related statements in important meetings [46][49]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For crude oil, a mid - term layout is the main operation idea, but it is necessary to wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail risks. For methanol, it is recommended to take profits when the price is high. For urea, it is recommended to short - allocate on rallies. For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities. For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by the sentiment of crude oil cost. For ethylene glycol, pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices. For p - xylene, pay attention to the follow - up situation in the medium term. For polyethylene and polypropylene, the prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts and seasonal factors, and for polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [54][56][58][60][64][66][69][71][73][76]. - For live pigs, the near - term contract should be treated with a short - bias after the rebound, and the far - end contract should not be over - chased. For eggs, pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - end contract. For soybean and rapeseed meal, wait for the price to pull back before trying to buy. For oils and fats, go long at low prices. For sugar, go long with a small amount at low prices. For cotton, go long at low prices [79][81][83][86][88][90]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US stock panic index VIX rose 24% to 26.6 points; the European natural gas price increase expanded to 40% to 62.5 euros/MWh, and it rose more than 100% in two days; the US State Department issued 6 evacuation orders; the top five in the global AI application monthly active list are ChatGPT, Doubao, Qianwen, Quark, and DeepSeek, with Qianwen's growth rate reaching 552% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS changed by 0.03%, - 0.03%, - 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively. The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to 11th. The central bank conducted 343 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4917 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inflation rebound has potential pressure on the bond market. The endogenous power of economic recovery is not solid. The US - Iran conflict has increased short - term risk aversion sentiment, but if the conflict lasts long, inflation may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21521.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 3.99% to 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 7.38% to 82.30 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 99.05. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may push up inflation expectations, and the Fed officials' cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts supports the US dollar [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US bond yields suppress the prices of gold and silver. If the US bond yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, the gold price may fall; otherwise, it may rise. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the reference range of Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1170 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver at 20900 - 21800 yuan/kilogram [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices fluctuated lower. LME copper 3M contract fell 0.92% to 12964 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101330 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot discount in East China and Guangdong narrowed, and the import loss was about 500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US's stance on the Middle East war has softened. The key mineral resource attribute supports the copper price. The short - term support for the copper price is strong, with the reference range of Shanghai copper at 100000 - 104000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at 12700 - 13300 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, the supply of aluminum was disturbed, and the price rose. LME aluminum 3M contract rose 2.83% to 3275 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24410 yuan/ton. The position of Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has reached a high level, but it is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The Middle East war has increased the supply concern of aluminum. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be strong, with the reference range of Shanghai aluminum at 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M at 3220 - 3350 US dollars/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 1.90% to 24401 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 55.5 to 3300 US dollars/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories of zinc ingots increased, and the import loss was - 2660.88 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely during the conflict [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index fell 0.27% to 16847 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 13.5 to 1964.5 US dollars/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories of lead ingots increased, and the import profit was 598.52 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead ore inventory and TC increased slightly, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased. The smelter's operating rate declined, and the downstream demand has not fully recovered. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.86% to 135450 yuan/ton. The spot premium and discount remained stable, and the price of nickel ore was flat. The price of ferronickel continued to rise [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the nickel price is expected to rise slowly. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate to digest the inventory pressure. It is recommended to sell high and buy low, with the reference range of Shanghai nickel at 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M at 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 11.06% to 394890 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is worried, but there is no impact on production for the time being. The production of refined tin is at a low level, and the downstream demand has not been effectively reflected [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong, but the supply and demand are marginally loose, and the inventory has increased. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. It is expected that the tin price will run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of the domestic main contract at 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin at 47000 - 52000 US dollars/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 8.16% to 159322 yuan. The LC2605 contract fell 12.30% to 150860 yuan, and the premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 950 yuan [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tension in the Iran situation has led to a correction in lithium carbonate. The lithium price callback may release spot buying. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. The reference range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138000 - 160000 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the alumina index rose 1.24% to 2820 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price in Shandong rose, and the import loss was - 4 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the price of ore remained stable [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end is in surplus, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the reference range of the domestic main contract A02605 is 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract fell 1.39% to 14185 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the raw material price increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, non - ferrous metals are under pressure. The supply - side pressure of stainless steel has increased, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a volatile upward pattern, with

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict in the Middle East has escalated, affecting the financial markets in the region. The market impact on a global scale depends on potential changes in three key signals: US military mobilization, changes in the Iranian political situation, and the scope of conflict spillover. The general rule is that the safe - haven asset gold is better than the US dollar, long - term oil prices are still determined by supply and demand, the performance of the US stock market is directly related to the degree of US military intervention and the trend of the war situation, and there is no significant impact on Chinese assets [7][8]. - In the short term, the market style may switch from "policy expectation" to "performance realization". A - shares are likely to open lower due to the decline of US stock indices and geopolitical conflicts, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [18][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On March 2, 2026, among domestic chemical products, the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, plastic, PP, PTA, PVC, asphalt, methanol, and LPG rose, with fuel oil having the largest increase of 3.378%, while the prices of coking coal, coke, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, ethylene glycol, styrene, glass, soda ash, pulp, and caustic soda declined, with coking coal having a decline of 1.417% [4]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - On March 2, 2026, among domestic agricultural products, the prices of soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, white sugar, yellow corn, corn starch, and palm oil rose, with yellow corn having an increase of 0.932%, while the prices of soybean No. 2, soybean meal, eggs, cotton yarn declined, with soybean meal having a decline of 0.247% [4]. 3.3 Macro News - On February 28, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated and killed. The Iranian government announced a 40 - day national mourning and will soon elect a new supreme leader. US President Trump said that the US military action against Iran may last about four weeks and that he has agreed to dialogue with the new Iranian leadership [7]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated China's stance on the Iranian situation during a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: stop military actions immediately, return to dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible, and jointly oppose unilateral actions [7]. - This week, there are many major global market events, including the opening of the 2026 National Two Sessions, the release of China's February PMI, foreign exchange and gold reserve data, and new product launches by Apple and Alibaba [8]. - Many new - energy vehicle manufacturers released their February delivery data, and some offered car - buying discounts in March [9]. - The 15th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference decided that the 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the CPPCC will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026 [9]. 3.4 Morning Meeting Views on Major Products 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - White sugar: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose 0.74%. In the short term, the price center may move up further, but it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level and import policy changes [11]. - Corn: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose 0.77%. The short - term trend is high - level oscillation, but there is a risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the upper and lower support levels [11]. - Peanuts: On February 27, the price of the main contract fell slightly by 0.15%. The current price oscillates around the cost line. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 7850 - 8000 yuan range [11]. - Live pigs: The current overall supply exceeds demand, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the overall market remains in bottom - level oscillation [11]. - Eggs: The current national egg spot price is mainly stable. The near - term and long - term prices show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with a large basis, suppressing the near - term prices, and the long - term prices remain oscillating after the decline [12]. - Red dates: After the Spring Festival, the market is slowly resuming. The spot price of red dates is temporarily stable, and the market is in bottom - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [12]. - Cotton: On February 27, the price of the main contract rose slightly by 0.29%. In the long - term, cotton prices are strongly supported by the expectation of supply tightening, but there is a risk of correction due to insufficient demand [12]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: The fundamental situation of caustic soda remains in an oversupply pattern, and the near - term contracts may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices [12]. - Coking coal and coke: After the Spring Festival, the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure, and the fundamentals are expected to continue in a weakly oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the linkage effect of rising energy prices due to the Middle East situation [12]. - Double - offset paper: The price of the main contract of double - offset paper is oscillating downward. The supply - side pressure persists, and the demand - side purchasing enthusiasm is still low. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [12]. - Urea: The price of urea in the domestic spot market is running strongly. The demand in the agricultural peak season is supportive, but factors such as the release of stored goods and price - stabilizing policies may suppress the upward space. Attention should be paid to the 1750 - 1940 yuan/ton operating range [13]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and silver: The prices of gold and silver are oscillating at high levels with large fluctuations. The increase in inflation pressure, policy uncertainty of the Federal Reserve, the increase in speculative net long positions, and the escalation of the Middle East situation have promoted the rise of precious metals [13]. - Copper and aluminum: The global macro - environment shows a pattern of weak balance and high volatility. The domestic social inventory of copper and aluminum is in a seasonal accumulation period. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and supply - side risks due to the Middle East situation [13]. - Alumina: After the Spring Festival, the overall inventory of the domestic alumina market has decreased slightly, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally reversed. It is expected to remain at a low level and wait for new market drivers [15]. 3.4.4 Steel and Iron Alloys - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: After the Spring Festival, the inventory of the five major steel products continues to accumulate. Rebar still faces inventory accumulation pressure in the short term, while the demand for hot - rolled coil starts faster. The steel prices are expected to have limited downward space and upward rebound space. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the specified price ranges [14]. - Ferroalloys: After the Spring Festival, the fundamentals of ferroalloys have not changed much. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. From a macro perspective, the prices of commodities with high import dependence and external pricing power fluctuate more. In the short term, a bullish view on corrections is recommended, and industrial hedging should wait for better opportunities [14]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - On February 27, the price of the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 1.37%. The supply - demand pattern is tightening. It is recommended to consider buying on dips with a light position, but attention should be paid to the risk of sharp fluctuations due to insufficient market liquidity [14]. 3.4.6 Options and Finance - Stock index options: On February 27, the three major A - share indices showed different trends. The trading volume of options decreased, the open interest increased, and the implied volatility decreased. Trend investors should focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility when the volatility drops significantly [16]. - Stock indices: Geopolitical risks have resurfaced. A - shares are likely to open lower, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the support of funds for a potential rebound [20]. - RMB: Since February, the RMB has continued its unilateral appreciation trend. The central bank's decision to reduce the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales helps to weaken the expectation of unilateral RMB appreciation and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate [19].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industries. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short - term, the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Chinese Spring Festival have affected the market. But in the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, it is recommended to buy on dips; for bonds, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate; for precious metals, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4][6][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate. Factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand, and inventory levels affect their prices. For example, copper is affected by reserve policies and supply - demand patterns; aluminum is supported by low LME inventory; zinc may be affected by macro sentiment; lead's price stability depends on post - holiday downstream restocking; nickel is under fundamental pressure; tin has supply - demand marginal relaxation; lithium carbonate has uncertain supply - demand after the holiday; alumina is affected by mine strikes and supply overcapacity; stainless steel is supported by fundamentals; and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and supply - side factors [12][14][17][18][20][21][22][24][26][28]. - **Black building materials**: The black building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. Steel products are affected by domestic real - estate policies and overseas monetary policies, and are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply and demand and inventory factors. Coking coal and coke may face short - term price pressure and potential long - term upward trends. Glass and soda ash are expected to continue to fluctuate, with glass lacking demand support and soda ash having weak demand. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a supply - demand double - weak situation [31][33][36][37][40][42][45][49][51]. - **Energy and chemicals**: For rubber, it is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Crude oil should be taken profit at high prices and mid - term layout should be the main strategy. Methanol should be observed in the short - term. Urea should be short - sold. For pure benzene and styrene, profits can be gradually taken. PVC has a poor fundamental situation. Ethylene glycol has a high inventory pressure. PTA and p - xylene have good mid - term prospects. Polyethylene and polypropylene are affected by supply and demand and cost factors [56][58][61][63][65][68][70][73][75]. - **Agricultural products**: For live pigs, short - term selling on rebounds is recommended, while long - term support should be noted. For eggs, short - term short - selling is recommended, and the long - term situation depends on capacity reduction. For soybean and rapeseed meal, prices are expected to fluctuate. For oils and fats, mid - term bullishness is expected, and buying on dips is recommended. For sugar, wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. For cotton, there is potential for long - term price increase, and low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival should be considered [83][85][88][90][94][97]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy. SMC's Q4 revenue increased by 4.5% quarter - on - quarter, with a gross margin of 19.2% and a capacity utilization rate of 95.7%. Byte released a new image - generation model. The National Development and Reform Commission promotes the integration of bidding and AI [2]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Spring Festival, the market risk appetite is suppressed. In the long - term, policy support remains, so the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy and conducted a net injection of 2059 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [5]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's policy indicates a loose capital situation. However, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the demand is weak. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices in domestic and international markets declined. The inflation expectations in the US decreased, and the retail sales were stagnant. COMEX silver inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Fundamentals support the price of gold, and the tight inventory supports the near - month price of silver. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: US retail sales data affected copper prices. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Policies and economic data support the sentiment. The supply of copper ore is tight, but the short - term supply is sufficient. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The market volatility decreased before the holiday. Aluminum prices adjusted due to production cuts in Mozambique. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Domestic inventory accumulates, but LME inventory is low. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import was at a loss [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulates. The industry is weak, but macro sentiment may drive the price up [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import had a profit [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore inventory is high, and the smelter's operating rate decreases seasonally. The price stability depends on post - holiday restocking [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined slightly. The spot premium and cost remained stable [19]. - **Strategy**: There is a short - term rebound demand, but the fundamentals are under pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. The supply was restricted by raw materials, and the demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may rebound with precious metals, but the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The pre - holiday capital is cautious. The future supply - demand is uncertain. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The basis and inventory changed [23]. - **Strategy**: The mine strike in Guinea needs attention, and the supply overcapacity persists. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless - steel futures increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the fundamentals are supported. It is recommended to buy on dips [26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures declined slightly. The inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost increases, and the supply - side factors support the price [28]. Black building materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and position changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a bottom - game stage, affected by domestic and overseas factors. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The price of iron - ore futures remained unchanged. The spot price and basis were reported [32]. - **Strategy**: The overseas shipment decreased, the demand was affected by equipment failure, and the inventory was high. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined. The spot prices and basis were reported [34]. - **Strategy**: Overseas coal disturbances affect sentiment, and the short - term price upward drive is weak. There may be a long - term upward trend, but beware of post - holiday price corrections [36][37][39]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures declined. The inventory and position changed [40][41]. - **Strategy**: Glass lacks demand support, and soda ash has weak demand. Both are expected to continue to fluctuate [40][42]. - **Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron** - **Market Information**: The price of manganese - silicon futures increased slightly, and that of silicon - iron futures decreased slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment and cost factors affect the prices. Pay attention to potential cost - driven events [44][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply and demand changed [46][50]. - **Strategy**: Both are in a supply - demand double - weak situation. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. Energy and chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices followed the market to rebound. The tire - enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Trade short - term on the disk and set stop - losses [56]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures increased. The inventory of crude oil and refined oil changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [58]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed slightly [59]. - **Strategy**: The current price has factored in many negative factors. Observe in the short - term [61]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals are bearish. Short - sell [63]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired. Gradually take profits [65]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [66][67]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to the changes in capacity and operation [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: The inventory pressure is high, and there is a need for production reduction. There is a risk of rebound [70]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - **Strategy**: Enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities [73]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The inventory is expected to increase before the maintenance season. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil [75]. - **Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The prices of PE and PP futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [76][78]. - **Strategy**: PE's valuation has room to decline, and PP's price may bottom out. For PP, buy on dips for the 5 - 9 spread [77][80]. Agricultural products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to decline [82]. - **Strategy**: Short - term selling on rebounds, and note the long - term support [83]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable with a few declines [84]. - **Strategy**: Short - term short - selling, and the long - term depends on capacity reduction [85]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to fluctuate [88]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: The prices of oil futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [89][90]. - **Strategy**: Mid - term bullish, buy on dips [90]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [91][93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. Observe domestically [94]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures increased slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [95][96]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations, long - term potential for increase. Look for low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, there are numerous significant events in the global market. Domestically, China's January CPI, PPI, and credit data such as new loans and social financing are to be released, and the results of the Q4 2025 Hang Seng Index series review will be announced. Internationally, the delayed US January non - farm payrolls and inflation data are coming, and the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations. Many companies will disclose their latest financial reports [7]. - The A - share ETF market at the beginning of 2026 shows a "polarized" situation. Mainstream broad - based ETFs have suffered nearly 100 billion yuan in redemptions, while theme ETFs such as those in the chemical, non - ferrous metals, and power grid equipment sectors have attracted funds, indicating a strategic shift of funds from large - cap blue - chips to specific high - growth tracks [8]. - Since the beginning of 2026, southbound funds have continuously increased their investment in the Hong Kong stock market. As of February 8, southbound funds have had net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, with net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan in the last three trading days [8]. - The A - share market is currently adjusting around the 4100 - point mark, but active equity funds have shown strong performance resilience, with 135 funds hitting new highs in their reinvested unit net values since February [9]. - The prices of various futures products show different trends. For example, in the chemical sector, natural rubber and 20 - number rubber have risen, while asphalt and fuel oil have fallen; in the agricultural products sector, yellow soybean No.2 and soybean meal have risen, while palm oil and yellow corn have fallen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,134.50 | 1,138.50 | - 4.0 | - 0.351% | | Coke | 1,688.00 | 1,698.50 | - 10.50 | - 0.618% | | Natural Rubber | 16,205.00 | 16,080.00 | 125.0 | 0.777% | | 20 - number Rubber | 13,115.00 | 13,050.00 | 65.0 | 0.498% | | Plastic | 6,769.00 | 6,812.00 | - 43.0 | - 0.631% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,668.00 | 6,691.00 | - 23.0 | - 0.344% | | (PTA) | 5,188.00 | 5,166.00 | 22.0 | 0.426% | | PVC | 4,989.00 | 4,981.00 | 8.0 | 0.161% | | Asphalt | 3,354.00 | 3,386.00 | - 32.0 | - 0.945% | | Methanol | 2,240.00 | 2,244.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.178% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,739.00 | 3,743.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.107% | | Styrene | 7,609.00 | 7,625.00 | - 16.0 | - 0.210% | | Glass | 1,065.00 | 1,072.00 | - 7.0 | - 0.653% | | Crude Oil | 466.50 | 465.40 | 1.10 | 0.236% | | Fuel Oil | 2,804.00 | 2,831.00 | - 27.0 | - 0.954% | | Soda Ash | 1,178.00 | 1,190.00 | - 12.0 | - 1.008% | | Pulp | 5,220.00 | 5,234.00 | - 14.0 | - 0.267% | | LPG | 4,225.00 | 4,258.00 | - 33.0 | - 0.775% | | Caustic Soda | 1,923.00 | 1,862.00 | 61.0 | 3.276% | | ЬХ | 7,272.00 | 7,262.00 | 10.0 | 0.138% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,380.00 | 4,378.00 | 2.0 | 0.046% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,483.00 | 3,468.00 | 15.0 | 0.433% | | Soybean Meal | 2,742.00 | 2,735.00 | 7.0 | 0.256% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,240.00 | 2,239.00 | 1.0 | 0.045% | | Soybean Oil | 8,130.00 | 8,102.00 | 28.0 | 0.346% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,146.00 | 9,144.00 | 2.0 | 0.022% | | Palm Oil | 9,018.00 | 9,026.00 | - 8.0 | - 0.089% | | White Sugar | 5,228.00 | 5,228.00 | 0 | 0 | | Yellow Corn | 2,263.00 | 2,274.00 | - 11.0 | - 0.484% | | Corn Starch | 2,535.00 | 2,540.00 | - 5.0 | - 0.197% | | No.1 Cotton | 14,655.00 | 14,580.00 | 75.0 | 0.514% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,425.00 | 20,405.00 | 20.0 | 0.098% | [4] 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure is the core contradiction, but there are marginal changes. The price may continue to consolidate in the short term, with the upper resistance at 5250 - 5280 yuan and the lower support at 5200 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: On February 6, the price continued to be oscillating and strengthening. The supply - side sales progress is faster, and the demand - side support is limited. One can consider buying on dips near 2250 - 2260 yuan, with short - term resistance at 2280 - 2300 yuan [12]. - **Peanut**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side import reduction supports the price, and the demand - side situation is relatively balanced. It is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. One can wait and see or try to go long lightly near 8000 yuan [12]. - **Pig**: The current supply is abundant and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market is in a state of near - weak and far - strong [12]. - **Egg**: The current spot price is mainly stable, and the demand is the main factor. The futures market is oscillating, with near - strong and far - weak characteristics [13]. - **Jujube**: The price in the producing area is stable, and the sales area is in normal trading. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for support [13]. - **Cotton**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side has a long - term reduction expectation, but the short - term high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term, and one can consider going long on dips [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The overall fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: As the holiday approaches, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will be weak, and the prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - **Log**: On February 6, the price fell significantly. The pre - holiday demand decline pressure dominates, and it is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weak. The pulp price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The market is in a weak - balance state. The price is expected to maintain an interval shock in the short term, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range [14]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is mainly stable. The supply has recovered to a high level, and the demand shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of Indian tenders on market sentiment [14][16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Recently, the market sentiment has cooled down, and copper and aluminum prices have adjusted at high levels, waiting to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina remain in an oversupply pattern, waiting for new market drivers [19]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals of ferrous alloys are relatively healthy. The short - term trend maintains a callback - biased - long thinking, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment [21]. 3.3.5 Lithium Carbonate - On February 6, the price was volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in February, and the demand provides short - term support, but the expected import increase in March suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [21]. 3.3.6 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 6, the three major A - share indexes pulled back. Different index futures and options have different performance characteristics. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility before the Spring Festival [21][22]. - **Stock Index**: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly oscillating. One can consider buying a straddle strategy. After the festival, the probability of an upward trend is high, and short - term trading should follow the thinking of a wide - range shock market [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market shows a mixed trend, with the spring market still likely to continue, but the market performance may not be smooth. Before the Spring Festival, the market may be volatile, and investors are advised to adopt a more conservative style and focus on high-dividend sectors [27]. - The commodity market has different trends. Precious metals generally rise, while base metals show mixed performance. The energy market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and oil prices rise [10][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - China's President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and the need for the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [7]. - Market rumors that Musk's team visited Chinese photovoltaic companies led to a surge in A-share photovoltaic concept stocks. However, some companies announced that they had not carried out any cooperation with the relevant team, and the China Photovoltaic Industry Association pointed out that space photovoltaic technology is still in the early exploration stage [7]. - Google's parent company Alphabet's Q4 2025 revenue exceeded expectations, and its 2026 capital expenditure is expected to be much higher than investors' expectations [8]. - The A-share market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. The coal and photovoltaic sectors saw a wave of daily limit increases, while the semiconductor, computing hardware, and AI application sectors were sluggish [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to strengthen the technological supply of future industries and promote breakthroughs in fields such as 6G, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and embodied intelligence [8]. - The number of newly opened margin trading accounts in the market in January increased significantly compared with the previous month and the same period last year [9]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non-US currencies fell. The offshore RMB against the US dollar fell [9]. - China's first domestically developed 12-inch silicon carbide ingot thinning equipment and substrate thinning equipment were successfully delivered, marking a new breakthrough in the field of large-size silicon carbide processing [9]. - The Federal Reserve announced that it will not adjust the capital levels of large banks in the 2026 stress test cycle and is considering reforms to improve transparency [9]. - The US stock market closed mixed. The Dow rose, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell. The labor market data showed that the number of private sector employment in the US in January was far lower than expected [10]. - The domestic commodity futures market mostly rose, with precious metals leading the gains. The international precious metals futures market also generally rose [10][11]. - The London base metals market mostly fell [11]. - The European stock market closed mixed. The French stock market rose due to the rebound of the luxury goods sector and the stability of the European Central Bank's interest rate; the British stock market was boosted by the strengthening of the pound; the German stock market fell due to the difficulties in the auto parts industry and geopolitical concerns [11]. - Iran's Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the talks with the US in Oman, and the meeting is scheduled to be held on February 6 [12]. - The yields of treasury bonds in the interbank market showed mixed trends, and the treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and the interbank market liquidity returned to a stable and loose state [12]. - The prices of US and Brent crude oil futures rose due to concerns about the risk of military conflict and the unexpected decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory [12]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The price of the sugar futures main contract continued to rebound. Although the supply pressure remains, the rebound of international sugar prices and the tightening of domestic import policies have alleviated some downward pressure. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock repair in the short term [14]. - **Corn**: The price of the corn futures main contract fluctuated narrowly, and the pre - holiday selling pressure continued to be realized, putting pressure on the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support at 2250 yuan/ton [14]. - **Peanuts**: The price of the peanut futures main contract fluctuated narrowly, and the supply and demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern in the short term [14]. - **Pigs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market is expected to remain volatile before the festival [14][16]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs dropped significantly, and the futures market reflected the decline in spot prices and the expectation of post - festival decline, maintaining a volatile trend [16]. - **Red Dates**: The price of red dates is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for support [16]. - **Cotton**: The supply of cotton is expected to decrease, and the demand is resilient. It is recommended to treat it with an interval - shock idea and consider going long at the lower edge of the interval [16]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in a state of high supply and high inventory, and the fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern [15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is expected to shrink, and the downstream demand is also weak. It is expected to show a weak - shock trend in the short term [16]. - **Logs**: The price of log futures continued to be strong, but there is a risk of a decline in demand before the festival. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure of pulp continues, and the demand support is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stand firm at the spot price level [18]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply of double - offset paper is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price may be restricted if there is no substantial improvement in demand [18]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The daily output is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The UR2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [18][20]. 2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The price of copper is boosted by the proposed key mineral strategic reserve plan and the easing of market uncertainties. The supply of aluminum is increasing, and the demand shows signs of stabilization, but the structural contradiction has not been eliminated. Both are expected to continue to run at a high level [22]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, waiting for new market drivers [23]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market of rebar and hot - rolled coil is inactive, and the demand is limited. The steel price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [23]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys changed little this week. The fundamentals of silicon iron and manganese silicon are relatively healthy. The short - term trend is expected to be callback - biased and long, and the impact of the macro environment should be noted [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is under pressure. The supply is expected to shrink in February, and the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [25]. 2.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 3, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume of stock index options changed. Trend investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - straddle positions to short volatility [25]. - **Stock Index**: The stock market may be volatile before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to focus on high - dividend sectors and adopt a more conservative investment style. The spring market is still likely to continue in February after short - term adjustment [27].