中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（34）期 发布日期：2026-03-02 | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 | | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/3/2 | 2026/3/1 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,078.00 | 1,093.50 | -15.50 | -1.417 | | | 焦炭 | 1,624.50 | 1,635.50 | -11.0 | -0.673 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,990.00 | 17,155.00 | -165.0 | -0.962 | | | 20号胶 | 13,655.00 | 13,765.00 | -110.0 | -0.799 | | | 塑料 | 6,633.00 | 6,597.00 | 36.0 | 0.546 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,641.00 | 6 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industries. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short - term, the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Chinese Spring Festival have affected the market. But in the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, it is recommended to buy on dips; for bonds, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate; for precious metals, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4][6][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate. Factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand, and inventory levels affect their prices. For example, copper is affected by reserve policies and supply - demand patterns; aluminum is supported by low LME inventory; zinc may be affected by macro sentiment; lead's price stability depends on post - holiday downstream restocking; nickel is under fundamental pressure; tin has supply - demand marginal relaxation; lithium carbonate has uncertain supply - demand after the holiday; alumina is affected by mine strikes and supply overcapacity; stainless steel is supported by fundamentals; and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and supply - side factors [12][14][17][18][20][21][22][24][26][28]. - **Black building materials**: The black building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. Steel products are affected by domestic real - estate policies and overseas monetary policies, and are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply and demand and inventory factors. Coking coal and coke may face short - term price pressure and potential long - term upward trends. Glass and soda ash are expected to continue to fluctuate, with glass lacking demand support and soda ash having weak demand. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a supply - demand double - weak situation [31][33][36][37][40][42][45][49][51]. - **Energy and chemicals**: For rubber, it is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Crude oil should be taken profit at high prices and mid - term layout should be the main strategy. Methanol should be observed in the short - term. Urea should be short - sold. For pure benzene and styrene, profits can be gradually taken. PVC has a poor fundamental situation. Ethylene glycol has a high inventory pressure. PTA and p - xylene have good mid - term prospects. Polyethylene and polypropylene are affected by supply and demand and cost factors [56][58][61][63][65][68][70][73][75]. - **Agricultural products**: For live pigs, short - term selling on rebounds is recommended, while long - term support should be noted. For eggs, short - term short - selling is recommended, and the long - term situation depends on capacity reduction. For soybean and rapeseed meal, prices are expected to fluctuate. For oils and fats, mid - term bullishness is expected, and buying on dips is recommended. For sugar, wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. For cotton, there is potential for long - term price increase, and low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival should be considered [83][85][88][90][94][97]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy. SMC's Q4 revenue increased by 4.5% quarter - on - quarter, with a gross margin of 19.2% and a capacity utilization rate of 95.7%. Byte released a new image - generation model. The National Development and Reform Commission promotes the integration of bidding and AI [2]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Spring Festival, the market risk appetite is suppressed. In the long - term, policy support remains, so the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy and conducted a net injection of 2059 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [5]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's policy indicates a loose capital situation. However, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the demand is weak. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices in domestic and international markets declined. The inflation expectations in the US decreased, and the retail sales were stagnant. COMEX silver inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Fundamentals support the price of gold, and the tight inventory supports the near - month price of silver. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: US retail sales data affected copper prices. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Policies and economic data support the sentiment. The supply of copper ore is tight, but the short - term supply is sufficient. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The market volatility decreased before the holiday. Aluminum prices adjusted due to production cuts in Mozambique. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Domestic inventory accumulates, but LME inventory is low. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import was at a loss [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulates. The industry is weak, but macro sentiment may drive the price up [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import had a profit [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore inventory is high, and the smelter's operating rate decreases seasonally. The price stability depends on post - holiday restocking [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined slightly. The spot premium and cost remained stable [19]. - **Strategy**: There is a short - term rebound demand, but the fundamentals are under pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. The supply was restricted by raw materials, and the demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may rebound with precious metals, but the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The pre - holiday capital is cautious. The future supply - demand is uncertain. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The basis and inventory changed [23]. - **Strategy**: The mine strike in Guinea needs attention, and the supply overcapacity persists. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless - steel futures increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the fundamentals are supported. It is recommended to buy on dips [26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures declined slightly. The inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost increases, and the supply - side factors support the price [28]. Black building materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and position changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a bottom - game stage, affected by domestic and overseas factors. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The price of iron - ore futures remained unchanged. The spot price and basis were reported [32]. - **Strategy**: The overseas shipment decreased, the demand was affected by equipment failure, and the inventory was high. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined. The spot prices and basis were reported [34]. - **Strategy**: Overseas coal disturbances affect sentiment, and the short - term price upward drive is weak. There may be a long - term upward trend, but beware of post - holiday price corrections [36][37][39]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures declined. The inventory and position changed [40][41]. - **Strategy**: Glass lacks demand support, and soda ash has weak demand. Both are expected to continue to fluctuate [40][42]. - **Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron** - **Market Information**: The price of manganese - silicon futures increased slightly, and that of silicon - iron futures decreased slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment and cost factors affect the prices. Pay attention to potential cost - driven events [44][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply and demand changed [46][50]. - **Strategy**: Both are in a supply - demand double - weak situation. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. Energy and chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices followed the market to rebound. The tire - enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Trade short - term on the disk and set stop - losses [56]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures increased. The inventory of crude oil and refined oil changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [58]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed slightly [59]. - **Strategy**: The current price has factored in many negative factors. Observe in the short - term [61]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals are bearish. Short - sell [63]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired. Gradually take profits [65]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [66][67]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to the changes in capacity and operation [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: The inventory pressure is high, and there is a need for production reduction. There is a risk of rebound [70]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - **Strategy**: Enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities [73]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The inventory is expected to increase before the maintenance season. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil [75]. - **Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The prices of PE and PP futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [76][78]. - **Strategy**: PE's valuation has room to decline, and PP's price may bottom out. For PP, buy on dips for the 5 - 9 spread [77][80]. Agricultural products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to decline [82]. - **Strategy**: Short - term selling on rebounds, and note the long - term support [83]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable with a few declines [84]. - **Strategy**: Short - term short - selling, and the long - term depends on capacity reduction [85]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to fluctuate [88]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: The prices of oil futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [89][90]. - **Strategy**: Mid - term bullish, buy on dips [90]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [91][93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. Observe domestically [94]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures increased slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [95][96]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations, long - term potential for increase. Look for low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, there are numerous significant events in the global market. Domestically, China's January CPI, PPI, and credit data such as new loans and social financing are to be released, and the results of the Q4 2025 Hang Seng Index series review will be announced. Internationally, the delayed US January non - farm payrolls and inflation data are coming, and the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations. Many companies will disclose their latest financial reports [7]. - The A - share ETF market at the beginning of 2026 shows a "polarized" situation. Mainstream broad - based ETFs have suffered nearly 100 billion yuan in redemptions, while theme ETFs such as those in the chemical, non - ferrous metals, and power grid equipment sectors have attracted funds, indicating a strategic shift of funds from large - cap blue - chips to specific high - growth tracks [8]. - Since the beginning of 2026, southbound funds have continuously increased their investment in the Hong Kong stock market. As of February 8, southbound funds have had net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, with net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan in the last three trading days [8]. - The A - share market is currently adjusting around the 4100 - point mark, but active equity funds have shown strong performance resilience, with 135 funds hitting new highs in their reinvested unit net values since February [9]. - The prices of various futures products show different trends. For example, in the chemical sector, natural rubber and 20 - number rubber have risen, while asphalt and fuel oil have fallen; in the agricultural products sector, yellow soybean No.2 and soybean meal have risen, while palm oil and yellow corn have fallen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,134.50 | 1,138.50 | - 4.0 | - 0.351% | | Coke | 1,688.00 | 1,698.50 | - 10.50 | - 0.618% | | Natural Rubber | 16,205.00 | 16,080.00 | 125.0 | 0.777% | | 20 - number Rubber | 13,115.00 | 13,050.00 | 65.0 | 0.498% | | Plastic | 6,769.00 | 6,812.00 | - 43.0 | - 0.631% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,668.00 | 6,691.00 | - 23.0 | - 0.344% | | (PTA) | 5,188.00 | 5,166.00 | 22.0 | 0.426% | | PVC | 4,989.00 | 4,981.00 | 8.0 | 0.161% | | Asphalt | 3,354.00 | 3,386.00 | - 32.0 | - 0.945% | | Methanol | 2,240.00 | 2,244.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.178% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,739.00 | 3,743.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.107% | | Styrene | 7,609.00 | 7,625.00 | - 16.0 | - 0.210% | | Glass | 1,065.00 | 1,072.00 | - 7.0 | - 0.653% | | Crude Oil | 466.50 | 465.40 | 1.10 | 0.236% | | Fuel Oil | 2,804.00 | 2,831.00 | - 27.0 | - 0.954% | | Soda Ash | 1,178.00 | 1,190.00 | - 12.0 | - 1.008% | | Pulp | 5,220.00 | 5,234.00 | - 14.0 | - 0.267% | | LPG | 4,225.00 | 4,258.00 | - 33.0 | - 0.775% | | Caustic Soda | 1,923.00 | 1,862.00 | 61.0 | 3.276% | | ЬХ | 7,272.00 | 7,262.00 | 10.0 | 0.138% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,380.00 | 4,378.00 | 2.0 | 0.046% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,483.00 | 3,468.00 | 15.0 | 0.433% | | Soybean Meal | 2,742.00 | 2,735.00 | 7.0 | 0.256% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,240.00 | 2,239.00 | 1.0 | 0.045% | | Soybean Oil | 8,130.00 | 8,102.00 | 28.0 | 0.346% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,146.00 | 9,144.00 | 2.0 | 0.022% | | Palm Oil | 9,018.00 | 9,026.00 | - 8.0 | - 0.089% | | White Sugar | 5,228.00 | 5,228.00 | 0 | 0 | | Yellow Corn | 2,263.00 | 2,274.00 | - 11.0 | - 0.484% | | Corn Starch | 2,535.00 | 2,540.00 | - 5.0 | - 0.197% | | No.1 Cotton | 14,655.00 | 14,580.00 | 75.0 | 0.514% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,425.00 | 20,405.00 | 20.0 | 0.098% | [4] 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure is the core contradiction, but there are marginal changes. The price may continue to consolidate in the short term, with the upper resistance at 5250 - 5280 yuan and the lower support at 5200 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: On February 6, the price continued to be oscillating and strengthening. The supply - side sales progress is faster, and the demand - side support is limited. One can consider buying on dips near 2250 - 2260 yuan, with short - term resistance at 2280 - 2300 yuan [12]. - **Peanut**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side import reduction supports the price, and the demand - side situation is relatively balanced. It is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. One can wait and see or try to go long lightly near 8000 yuan [12]. - **Pig**: The current supply is abundant and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market is in a state of near - weak and far - strong [12]. - **Egg**: The current spot price is mainly stable, and the demand is the main factor. The futures market is oscillating, with near - strong and far - weak characteristics [13]. - **Jujube**: The price in the producing area is stable, and the sales area is in normal trading. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for support [13]. - **Cotton**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side has a long - term reduction expectation, but the short - term high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term, and one can consider going long on dips [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The overall fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: As the holiday approaches, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will be weak, and the prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - **Log**: On February 6, the price fell significantly. The pre - holiday demand decline pressure dominates, and it is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weak. The pulp price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The market is in a weak - balance state. The price is expected to maintain an interval shock in the short term, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range [14]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is mainly stable. The supply has recovered to a high level, and the demand shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of Indian tenders on market sentiment [14][16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Recently, the market sentiment has cooled down, and copper and aluminum prices have adjusted at high levels, waiting to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina remain in an oversupply pattern, waiting for new market drivers [19]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals of ferrous alloys are relatively healthy. The short - term trend maintains a callback - biased - long thinking, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment [21]. 3.3.5 Lithium Carbonate - On February 6, the price was volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in February, and the demand provides short - term support, but the expected import increase in March suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [21]. 3.3.6 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 6, the three major A - share indexes pulled back. Different index futures and options have different performance characteristics. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility before the Spring Festival [21][22]. - **Stock Index**: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly oscillating. One can consider buying a straddle strategy. After the festival, the probability of an upward trend is high, and short - term trading should follow the thinking of a wide - range shock market [22][23]

中原期货研究咨询部 2026 第（24）期 发布日期：2026-02-05 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/4 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,187.50 | 1,209.00 | -21.50 | -1.778 | | | 焦炭 | 1,753.00 | 1,770.00 | -17.0 | -0.960 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,325.00 | 16,385.00 | -60.0 | -0.366 | | | 20号胶 | 13,260.00 | 13,300.00 | -40.0 | -0.301 | | | 塑料 | 6,867.00 | 6.918.00 | -51.0 | -0.737 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,759 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various commodities in the chemical and agricultural sectors showed different trends on February 4, 2026, compared to the previous day [4]. - The macro - economic news includes rumors of VAT rate hikes in some industries, major corporate mergers and IPO plans, and policy directions in different fields [6][7]. - For different commodity futures, the market conditions are affected by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and macro - economic factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [11][13][15]. - In the stock market, A - shares showed a general upward trend on February 3, while欧美 stocks declined. Different sectors had different performances, and trading strategies are suggested for different investors [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On February 4, 2026, most chemical futures showed price increases, such as natural rubber with a 0.803% increase, 20 - number rubber with a 0.955% increase, and asphalt with a 0.997% increase. Only PVC and caustic soda showed price decreases, with PVC down 0.335% and caustic soda down 0.863% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - Rumors of VAT rate hikes in the financial and Internet value - added service industries, especially in the game industry from 6% to 32%, turned out to be false [6]. - SpaceX merged with xAI, with the combined company valued at $1.25 trillion, and an expected IPO later this year [6]. - 30 provinces in China have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many economic powerhouses aiming for over 5% growth [6]. - Multiple commercial aerospace companies are in the process of going public, and they may list on the stock market intensively in the next one or two years [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes technological breakthroughs in future industries such as 6G, quantum technology, etc. [7]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a financial technology promotion blueprint and will launch four flagship projects [7]. - There were disputes about OpenAI's attitude towards Nvidia's AI chips, but Nvidia's investment plan in OpenAI is still progressing [7]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Waymo completed a new round of $16 billion in financing, with a post - investment valuation of $126 billion [8]. 3.3 Main Commodity Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The supply - demand situation is loose both at home and abroad. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to be cautious when short - selling and focus on short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **Corn**: The market faces seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival and weakening demand. The price is in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 2275 yuan and the lower support at 2250 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The lower support levels are 8000 yuan and 7900 yuan, and the upper pressure is 8100 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is temporarily tightened before the Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to remain volatile [11][13]. - **Egg**: The spot market is stable, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, seeking downward support [13]. - **Jujube**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. The downstream demand is fragmented, and the futures market is seeking downward support [13]. - **Cotton**: The supply has a long - term bullish factor of expected yield reduction, but the high inventory suppresses the upward space. The price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state. It is advisable to operate cautiously on the long side, with the support range at 14500 - 14600 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side changes on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal in the production areas have declined, and the replenishment of steel and coking enterprises is coming to an end. The prices are expected to fluctuate and run [13]. - **Log**: The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile state, but the upward space is limited. It is advisable to adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the upper pressure at 805 yuan and the lower support at 795 yuan [13][15]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling lightly when the price is high, with the upper pressure at 5300 yuan/ton and the lower support at 5250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance. It is recommended to wait and see. If the price effectively breaks below 4030 yuan, the downward space may be opened [16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is under pressure due to market uncertainties and the rising US dollar index. The aluminum supply is increasing, the demand is showing signs of stabilization, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, but the structural contradiction remains. The market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to macro - risks [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers [20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand is weakening as the holiday approaches, and the steel prices are expected to be under slight pressure and run weakly [20]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals are relatively healthy, but the market lacks expected drivers. The prices are expected to run weakly with a narrowing range, and the cost provides certain support. It is advisable to have a callback - and - long - biased trading idea and pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounded strongly after a sharp decline, showing strong support below. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile state in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 151880 yuan and the lower support at 137520 yuan [20][22]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 3, A - shares showed a general upward trend, and different stock index futures and options had different performance indicators. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - wide - straddle positions to short - sell volatility. The stock market is likely to fluctuate in the two weeks before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to structural opportunities [22]. - **Stock Market**: A - shares closed higher on February 3, with active performance in some concept sectors. The欧美 stock market declined, and technology stocks were under pressure. The trading strategy is to participate in the rebound lightly when the price stabilizes after a sharp decline, not to chase the rise, and to realize profits when the price rises [22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. For bonds, the market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern. For precious metals, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For various industrial products and agricultural products, specific analysis should be based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market sentiment [4][8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - finance 1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and the daily limit for silver deferred contracts. Dozens of varieties such as Shanghai silver, palladium, and platinum hit the daily limit down. Tesla plans to mass - produce dry electrode technology and will unveil its third - generation humanoid robot, with an expected annual production of one million units. Geely's sales in January exceeded BYD's, with overseas sales increasing by 121.2% and 51.47% respectively year - on - year. The DRAM contract price for OEMs is around $10 - 20 per GB, much lower than the spot price [2]. - **Strategy View**: In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the market rhythm, and the strategy should be to buy on dips [4]. 1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes in closing prices. China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, and the manufacturing industry maintained an expansion trend. Citigroup Research warned that the gold valuation has reached an extreme level [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery foundation is not yet solid, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, and the bond market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern [8]. 1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 3.61%, and Shanghai silver fell 17.04%. On Monday, gold and silver were heavily sold, hitting the daily limit down. The US manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was significantly higher than expected, indicating a recovery in the industry [9]. - **Strategy View**: The sharp reversal of the macro - market expectation led to a large - scale exit of long positions. The strong recovery of the US manufacturing industry may make the Fed more cautious about interest rate cuts, suppressing precious metal prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [11]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals 2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The US dollar index continued to rise, and non - ferrous metals declined. LME copper inventories decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased slightly [13]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's plan to start a strategic key mineral reserve program and the better - than - expected manufacturing PMI in the US and the eurozone have eased the sentiment. The copper supply is expected to be stable, and the copper price is expected to stabilize [14]. 2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The sharp decline in silver prices spread pessimism, and the aluminum price dropped significantly. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continued to accumulate, and the demand was weak [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the domestic demand is weak, the LME aluminum inventory is relatively low, and the aluminum price has strong support. If the precious metal volatility decreases and the domestic inventory situation is better than the seasonal average, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize [16]. 2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell on Monday. The LME zinc inventory accumulation slowed down, and the overseas natural gas price increase raised concerns about the cost of European smelters [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. The subsequent trading focus may return to the industrial logic [18]. 2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell on Monday. The lead ore and recycled waste inventories increased, and the downstream battery enterprise operating rate decreased slightly [19]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial situation of lead is weak. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI has eased the panic to some extent [20]. 2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 2, the nickel price dropped significantly. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [21]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the increase in refined nickel production and inventory will put pressure on the price [22]. 2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: On February 2, the tin price fell and hit the daily limit down. The supply increase was limited, and the demand was weak [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin market supply - demand is marginally loose, and the inventory is rising. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [23]. 2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price dropped significantly. The contract total position reached a new low since late October [24]. - **Strategy View**: The buying sentiment in the commodity market has cooled significantly. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the market atmosphere has a greater impact. It is recommended to be cautious and observe or try with a light position [24]. 2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly on February 2. The Guinea ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the supply - side policy, Guinea ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. 2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price dropped on Monday. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover slowed down [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged [28]. 2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price dropped significantly on February 2. The cost price dropped significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price has support in the short - term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [31]. 3. Black Building Materials 3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The螺纹 steel production remained high, and the demand decreased seasonally. The hot - rolled coil demand was relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy adjustments [34]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price dropped on Monday. The overseas iron ore shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [35]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas shipments are entering the off - season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The price has support below and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mills' replenishment and iron - making production rhythm [36]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The coking coal and coke prices fluctuated on February 2. The coking coal supply is gradually becoming looser, and the downstream inventory replenishment willingness is low [37]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the high - volatility risk [41]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price remained stable, and the soda ash price dropped slightly. The glass inventory decreased slightly, and the soda ash inventory increased slightly [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly stable and fluctuate [43][46]. 3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices dropped slightly on February 2. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is basically balanced [47]. - **Strategy View**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation and "dual - carbon" policy [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price dropped slightly, and the polysilicon price dropped slightly. The industrial silicon supply decreased, and the polysilicon demand decreased [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is expected to improve in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The polysilicon supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [51][53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals 4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities dropped significantly, and the rubber market was affected by both long and short factors. The tire enterprise operating rate and the natural rubber inventory had different changes [55][56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [58]. 4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price dropped significantly, and the refined oil prices also dropped. The European refined oil inventory had different changes [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [60]. 4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price dropped, and the MTO profit increased [61]. - **Strategy View**: The current methanol price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upward space [62]. 4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price dropped slightly, and the overall basis was - 17 yuan/ton [63]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and the fundamentals are expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. 4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price dropped, and the styrene price had different trends in spot and futures. The supply and demand sides had different changes [65]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene non - integrated profit has been significantly repaired. It is recommended to gradually take profits [66]. 4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price dropped, the production was at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak. The export was the only short - term support [67]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush. Attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [68]. 4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price dropped, the supply load was high, and the demand load decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [69]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. The valuation is expected to be compressed in the medium - term [70]. 4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price dropped, the supply was in high - maintenance, and the demand decreased due to the off - season. The inventory increased during the Spring Festival [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA processing fee has a high expected component, and there is a risk of correction in the short - term. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [73]. 4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price dropped, the load was high, and the downstream PTA was in maintenance. The inventory was expected to accumulate before the maintenance season [74]. - **Strategy View**: The mid - term pattern is good. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following the crude oil price [75]. 4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price dropped, the upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply support has returned, and the demand is in the off - season [77]. 4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price dropped, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. The supply - surplus pattern is expected to change in the first quarter of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [80]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price generally rose, but the short - term price is expected to stabilize [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The long - term price has support, and attention should be paid to the downside support after the decline [83]. 5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly declined, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term [84]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price may fluctuate weakly, and the long - term price may correct the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [85]. 5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price dropped, and the domestic soybean inventory decreased. The USDA report data was slightly bearish, but the short - term fundamentals are improving [86][87]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [88]. 5.4 Oils - **Market Information**: The oil futures price dropped, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the domestic oil inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price was affected by the decline of commodities [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term oil price may have bottomed out. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then try to buy [90]. 5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price dropped slightly, and the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The Indian sugar production increased, and the domestic sugar import increased [91]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [93]. 5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price dropped, the spinning mill operating rate decreased, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased slightly. The US cotton export decreased [94][95]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term cotton price fluctuates widely, and the long - term price has room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips before the Spring Festival [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, energy, non - ferrous metals, and financial options. It provides price data, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities and financial instruments. For the stock market, it suggests considering non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors for investment [10][14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On January 8, 2026, among domestic chemical products, prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and PTA decreased. For example, coking coal rose from 1,164.00 to 1,215.00 with a 4.381% increase, and natural rubber dropped from 1,6180.00 to 16,135.00 with a - 0.278% decrease [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Sugar**: On January 7, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued its low - level rebound. With supply pressure from Brazil and India's potential over - production, but cost support in China, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5400 yuan. A strategy of high - selling and low - buying in this range is recommended [10]. - **Corn**: On January 7, corn futures prices broke through the previous trading range. With supply pressure and demand support coexisting, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can consider buying on dips, with support at 2230 yuan [10]. - **Peanuts**: On January 7, peanut futures prices oscillated narrowly. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price increase is mainly driven by sentiment and short - term stocking. It is expected to continue rising in the short - term but at a slower pace, and then gradually stabilize. The futures market is oscillating strongly, and the inter - month reverse spread should be held [10]. - **Cotton**: On January 7, cotton futures prices rose significantly. With strengthened supply reduction expectations and improved demand, the market is running strongly, but investors need to beware of short - term corrections, with support at 14800 - 14900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot market for caustic soda is relatively stable, but the overall supply is in excess. The price is expected to weaken steadily, and the impact of market sentiment changes should be noted [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade enterprise quotes for coking coal have risen, but the transaction volume is average. Coke's downward price expectation has decreased. The short - term trend is oscillating strongly [11]. - **Log**: On January 7, log futures prices broke through the previous pressure level. With a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, investors can consider buying on dips after the price correction, with support at 780 [12]. - **Pulp**: On January 7, pulp futures prices showed a high - level decline. With strong supply - side cost support and weak demand, the price is supported by cost but limited by demand. It is recommended to wait and see at the 5600 - yuan pressure level [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: On January 7, double - offset paper futures prices oscillated downward. The market maintains a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with support at 4100 yuan and pressure at 4400 yuan [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: On January 7, copper prices were boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply concerns. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by policies in the long - term. However, on Wednesday, the prices of copper and aluminum showed a high - level decline, and investors need to beware of macro risks [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price rebound is driven by market sentiment. It is not advisable to chase the high price [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose at night. The spot market trading improved, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: On Wednesday, ferroalloys followed the upward trend of coking coal and coke. With the improvement of the market atmosphere, they are expected to be strong in the short - term, and industrial selling hedging can wait and see [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 7, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated strongly. With potential supply increase and demand turning points, investors need to beware of high - level corrections and should be cautious when chasing the high price [14][16]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 7, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly, but the stock index futures showed a mixed performance. For investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility. The stock market may face profit - taking pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Investment Directions**: It is recommended to consider non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors such as storage chips, commercial aerospace, and AI applications. For ordinary investors, it is advisable to allocate a certain amount of long - term stock index futures contracts or broad - based ETFs, and then choose some industry ETFs or individual stocks to obtain excess returns [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. After the New Year's Day, it is expected that the allocation funds for the new year will gradually enter the market. The medium - and long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the short - term bond market is expected to remain volatile in the context of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. It is suitable for quick - in and quick - out operations in the absence of a trend - following market [6]. - For precious metals, they are currently in an accelerated upward phase. There may be a short - term significant correction in January next year, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, copper, aluminum prices have certain supports, while zinc, lead industries have weak fundamentals, and nickel, tin prices are expected to be volatile. For new energy - related metals, lithium carbonate and alumina are recommended to be observed, and stainless steel can be considered to go long on dips [9][11][13][15][16][17][19][22][23]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and iron ore prices are likely to operate within an oscillation range [28][30]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to be observed, oil prices should be traded in a range - bound manner, and for other chemicals, different strategies such as waiting and seeing, going long on dips, or going short on rallies are recommended according to different fundamentals [44][49][52]. - In the agricultural products sector, for livestock products, short - term long positions can be considered for pigs, and short positions can be considered for eggs after rallies. For grains and oils, different strategies are recommended according to different production and demand situations [74][75][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: Policies such as housing sales VAT, new energy vehicle subsidies, consumer electronics subsidies, and AI education policies have been introduced [2]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The central rural work conference was held, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 2532 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term bond market is expected to remain volatile [6]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices rose, and the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year [7]. - **Strategy View**: There may be a short - term correction, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metal Category Copper - **Market News**: LME copper prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The domestic spot discount narrowed [9]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is tight, and the price support is strong, but beware of price fluctuations during the New Year's Day [10]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [11]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream demand is weak, but the price support is strong due to low inventory and strong copper prices [12]. Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals are weak, and there may be a price impact after the long - position exit [14]. Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [15]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are both weak, but the price is supported by low inventory and reduced supply at the regenerative end [15]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices rose significantly, and the cost was stable [16]. - **Strategy View**: The oversupply pressure is large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fell, the supply was stable at a high level, and the demand was in the off - season [17]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot price of lithium carbonate fell, and the futures price rose [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is dominated by capital games. It is recommended to wait and see or try to buy options with a light position [19]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to shrink, but actual production cuts are needed. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The policy is favorable, and it is recommended to go long on dips [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell, and the inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile [25][26]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices fell slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation [29]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices fell slightly, and the inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The market is expected to rise further, and the upside space is seen at 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [33]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory decreased [34]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market rebound is limited [34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose [35]. - **Strategy View**: The market is led by the black sector, and attention should be paid to cost and supply factors [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and the inventory decreased [39]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances in the northwest [40]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Polysilicon prices rose, and the inventory decreased [41]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile under regulatory influence, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [42]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices oscillated, and the tire start - up rate was slightly worse [44][46]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [48]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices rose slightly, and the inventory increased [49]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see and test the OPEC's export price - support willingness [50]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices rose, and the inventory decreased [51]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals have certain pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [52]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices rose, and the inventory decreased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to decrease seasonally, and it is recommended to go long on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices rose [56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [57]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [58]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and the inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand need to be improved through production cuts, and the valuation is expected to be compressed [62]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the callback risk and mid - term long opportunities [64][65]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices rose, and the inventory decreased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk and mid - term long opportunities [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose, and the inventory decreased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to bottom out next year [72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices rose slightly, and the supply tightened [74]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot is strong, and it is recommended to go short after the near - month rally [74]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable, and the supply was sufficient [75]. - **Strategy View**: The near - month is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after the rally [76]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and the oil - mill start - up rate was high [77]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost has a bottom, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil production and export data fluctuated, and domestic oil prices oscillated [79]. - **Strategy View**: Observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [80]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices oscillated, and the import volume decreased [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [84]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices rebounded, and the planting area may be reduced [85]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [86].