Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The stock market's high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term indices face uncertainty due to reduced trading volume, but in the long - run, it's advisable to buy on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Precious metals are likely to benefit from the Fed's future easing cycle, and it's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver [9]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous sector, prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, trade situations, and Fed policy expectations, with different short - term trends [12][14][17]. - In the black building materials sector, prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating before the Fourth Plenary Session, but may have long - term potential [42]. - In the energy - chemical sector, different products have different trends based on supply - demand, inventory, and policy factors [54][56]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products' prices are influenced by supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The Politburo met to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the NDRC is promoting a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool [2]. - **Base Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific base ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face uncertainty, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had specific price changes on Monday, and relevant policies were announced [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.81 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may oscillate in the fourth quarter, and its performance is related to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices in different markets had specific changes, and the US government faces a "shutdown" crisis [8]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver, and use put options for risk hedging during holidays [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: LME copper and SHFE copper prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly, with potential risks from trade situations [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom, affected by trade situations and Fed policy [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: SHFE zinc and LME zinc prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term SHFE zinc is expected to be weakly running [17]. Lead - **Market News**: SHFE lead and LME lead prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: SHFE lead is expected to show a wide - range oscillating pattern [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: SHFE nickel prices oscillated, and spot and cost data were provided [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [21]. Tin - **Market News**: SHFE tin prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate, and observation is recommended [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices changed, and contract and spot data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: Carbonate lithium is likely to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [24]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina index prices changed, and base and overseas price data were provided [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [28]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply - demand imbalance worsens [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: AD2511 contract prices changed, and inventory and price difference data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy futures are expected to be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil contract and spot prices changed, and inventory data were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are likely to remain weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [34]. - **Strategy**: Short - term iron ore prices may be affected by supply, demand, and inventory after the holiday [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass and soda ash contract and spot prices changed, and inventory and position data were provided [36][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass is recommended to be viewed bullishly in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Black building materials may first decline and then rise, and long - term buying opportunities may appear after the Fourth Plenary Session [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon may decline in the short - term [46][48]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were affected by factors such as coal prices and expected reserve sales [50]. - **Strategy**: A medium - term bullish view is held, but short - term observation is recommended [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and refined oil contract prices changed, and inventory data were provided [55]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long - positions should be stopped, and observation is recommended [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol fundamentals have improved marginally, and short - term long - positions can be considered on dips [58]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and long - positions can be considered on dips [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling during the seasonal peak season [62]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices changed, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: PVC has a poor supply - demand situation, and short - term short - positions can be considered on rallies [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and short - positions can be considered on rallies [66]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [67]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of PTA is recommended [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of p - Xylene is recommended [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may oscillate upward [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [74]. - **Strategy**: PP has a supply - demand imbalance, and short - term no prominent contradictions [76]. Agricultural Products Live Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices continued to decline, and supply and demand were expected to be stable [78]. - **Strategy**: Short - term hog prices may remain weak, and short - positions on near - month contracts are recommended [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable or declined, and supply and demand were in a wait - and - see state [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of eggs is recommended, and long - positions on far - month contracts can be considered after price declines [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal is in a weakly oscillating state, and short - term declines may occur [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export and production data in Malaysia were provided, and domestic oils and fats oscillated [84]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats may oscillate strongly in the medium - term, and buying on dips can be considered [85]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices and production forecasts were provided [86]. - **Strategy**: Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices declined, and spot prices and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [88][89]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [90].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation. Short - term index faces uncertainty, but in the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, so the idea is to go long on dips [4]. - In the bond market, considering the weak repair of domestic demand and the expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but in the short - term, it may be in a volatile pattern due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - For precious metals, as the Fed's key figures still have a dovish monetary policy stance after the September interest - rate meeting, it is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - In the black sector, there is a short - term risk of downward correction, especially after the National Day holiday, but in the future, it may gradually have the cost - performance for long - term allocation, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [37]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: It is expected that China's annual automobile sales will reach 40 million units during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period; six departments prohibit the addition of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity; Alibaba will cooperate with NVIDIA in Physical AI and plans to increase investment in AI infrastructure; the chip mania triggered by AI has spread to the storage chip field [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term index faces uncertainty, but in the long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, and the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds are lower than the valuation. The central bank conducted a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in August continued to slow down. Although the central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds, the bond market may be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver prices showed different trends. The US real estate data was strong, putting short - term pressure on precious metals, but the Fed's key figures had a dovish stance [7]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for precious metals, with reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver given [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, LME copper rose significantly, and the supply - side disturbances stimulated the price. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper inventory also changed [10]. - **Strategy View**: Although the Fed's attitude is relatively hawkish in the short - term, if the interest - rate cut process advances, the market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, LME aluminum rebounded, and the increase in copper prices drove the sentiment in the aluminum market. Domestic and foreign aluminum inventories changed, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Strategy View**: Although the Fed's statement is not as dovish as expected, the aluminum price has strong support below and may rise in the short - term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The domestic and foreign zinc inventories changed, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots were negative [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore surplus has eased, and the Fed's monetary policy has cooled the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector. The Shanghai zinc is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index fell slightly. The domestic and foreign lead inventories decreased, and the price difference between refined and scrap lead was 75 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy View**: The raw material shortage restricts the production of primary lead, while the profit of recycled lead has improved. The domestic lead ingot inventory has decreased, and the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short - term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable, and the price of MHP increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the high inventory of refined nickel may drag down the nickel price, but in the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, and the operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 24, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream demand was in the peak season [18]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the carbonate lithium continued to fluctuate. The price of the LC2511 contract decreased, and the spot price was stable [19]. - **Strategy View**: The current strong demand supports the bottom, but the supply recovery expectation suppresses the upside. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply, demand, and market sentiment [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 24, the alumina index rose. The domestic and foreign prices and inventories changed, and the import window opened [20]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support, but the alumina production capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, and the operating range for the domestic main contract is given [21][22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but the consumption has not improved significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Wednesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract rebounded. The inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the price is under pressure due to the delivery pressure, and the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: The commodity market was in a good mood, but the demand for steel was weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy trends of the "Fourth Plenary Session" [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The overseas iron - ore shipment decreased, the iron - water output increased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [30][31]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the iron - water output is still strong, and the iron - ore price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to observe the downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose significantly. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short increased and decreased respectively [32]. - **Strategy View**: The policy and price increase of some enterprises pushed up the glass price, but the terminal demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy and be bullish in the short - term [33]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda - ash main contract rose. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [34]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soda - ash market is stable, the production is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is flat. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short - term [34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On September 24, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the price differences changed [35]. - **Strategy View**: The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, but in the long - term, it may be suitable for long - term allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black - sector market [36][37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon main contract rose. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the spot price was stable [38]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand improvement and policy changes [39][40]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon main contract rose. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the spot price changed slightly [41]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon price is affected by policies and fundamentals. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [42]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Typhoon "Hagasa" is a positive factor, while the EU's delay in implementing anti - deforestation laws reduces positive factors. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber changed [44][46]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term neutral or slightly bullish view, and go long on dips with quick entry and exit [48]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures and related refined - oil futures rose. The gasoline inventory in Singapore increased, while the diesel, fuel - oil, and total refined - oil inventories decreased [49]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to be long on crude oil, as the current price is undervalued, and if the geopolitical premium reappears, the oil price may rise [50]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract changed. The 1 - 5 price difference was in a low - level shock [51]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of methanol decreased, and the demand improved marginally, but the high inventory still suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price of urea in Shandong was stable, while that in Henan decreased. The main contract price and price differences changed [54]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of urea increased, and the demand was weak. The urea price is expected to have no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [54]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost, spot, and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory also changed [55]. - **Strategy View**: The BZN price difference is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on the pure - benzene US - South Korea price difference on dips [56]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose. The cost was stable, the production and demand changed, and the inventory increased [57]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PVC is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [59]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose. The supply and demand loads decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [60]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [61]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose. The supply and demand loads decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [62]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PTA has many unexpected maintenance situations, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract rose. The load of PX decreased, and the inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PX load is high, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation recovery [65]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract rose. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory increased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to fluctuate upward, as the cost has support, and the demand may improve seasonally [67]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract rose. The upstream operating rate was stable, the inventory decreased in some places and increased in others, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PP has pressure, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [70]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices showed different trends. The supply of standard pigs is abundant, and the pig prices may be stable or decline today [72]. - **Strategy View**: The current spot price of pigs may decline slightly, and the futures price may continue to be weak. It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mainly stable, with a few adjustments. The supply was stable, and the egg prices may be stable or decline today [74]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price of eggs is expected to decline, and the near - month futures price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after the price decline [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The US soybean price decreased slightly, and Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax, which is negative for the international soybean prices. The domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly, and the inventory changed [76][77]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply of soybean meal has pressure, and the global soybean supply is loose. The soybean meal market is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of Malaysian palm oil changed, and the export, production, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil also changed. The domestic three major oils rebounded [79]. - **Strategy View**: The oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions were stable, and the production of the next crushing season in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [81][82]. - **Strategy View**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, but it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price decreased, and the inventory and operating rates of the downstream industry changed [84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may face short - term adjustment pressure but has a long - term bullish outlook; the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term. In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, with some expected to be strong and others to be weak. In the black building materials sector, steel prices are under pressure due to weak demand, while iron ore shows a relatively strong trend. In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products sector, prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [3][6][23] - The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, but its real - world implementation and effectiveness will determine whether it can drive the market to continue the upward trend similar to the supply - side structural reform. The market also needs to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the recovery of peak - season demand [29][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - News: In August, global hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks reached a new high since September 2024; Tesla is finalizing the Optimus V3 design; the US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.3%, and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%; Oracle's stock price soared due to a $455 billion order [2] - Transaction Logic: After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown differences recently. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is mainly to buy on dips [3] 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. The Ministry of Finance will tender and re - issue 35 billion yuan of 20 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on September 17. The central bank conducted 304 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net investment of 74.9 billion yuan [4] - Strategy: The manufacturing PMI in August improved but was still below the boom - bust line. The central bank is expected to maintain loose funds. The rise in market risk preference suppresses the bond market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term [5][6] 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg. COMEX gold fell 0.09% to $3678.8/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.11% to $41.65/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.04%, and the US dollar index was 97.79 [7] - Outlook: The US inflation data in August was significantly lower than expected, and the labor market weakened. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates more than three times in the remaining meetings of this year. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals sector, especially focusing on the rise of silver prices [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - Market: The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and copper prices rose. LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic copper inventory and basis showed different trends [10] - Outlook: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. Overseas copper mine supply has some disturbances, and domestic copper production has decreased marginally. Copper prices are expected to continue to be strong, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [10] 3.2.2 Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the basis and market atmosphere showed different trends [11] - Outlook: Aluminum prices are oscillating between macro expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upward space. Pay attention to the peak - season demand and inventory trends. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [11] 3.2.3 Zinc - Market: The zinc market shows an over - supply situation. The zinc ore and zinc ingot inventories are increasing, the TC of zinc concentrate is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The LME market has a low inventory of zinc warrants, and the contango is rising. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas is intensifying [12] - Outlook: The zinc market is expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term decline space [12] 3.2.4 Lead - Market: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The shortage of raw materials restricts the production of smelters, and the downstream consumption is weak. The lead ingot supply has decreased marginally, but there is still a risk of price decline if the market sentiment weakens [13] - Outlook: The lead price has certain support at the bottom, but there is a large downward risk if the commodity sentiment weakens and the smelting recovers [13] 3.2.5 Nickel - Market: The nickel price fluctuated. The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still at a low level. The demand for nickel - iron from stainless steel plants provides support. The supply of intermediate products is tight, and the demand from some enterprises provides price support [14] - Outlook: The short - term macro environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive the rise of non - ferrous metals. Although the supply of refined nickel is in an over - supply situation, the long - term support from the US loose expectation and domestic anti - involution policy is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [14] 3.2.6 Tin - Market: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and domestic smelter production is affected. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [15] - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be volatile in the short term due to the weak demand in the off - season and the significant short - term decline in supply [15] 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price of lithium carbonate decreased. The resumption of production of the Jiaxiaowo mine may change the supply - demand situation. The domestic lithium carbonate is expected to be destocked in September, and the spot strength may support the bottom [16] - Outlook: Pay attention to the market atmosphere and industrial information. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to run in the range of 68600 - 72500 yuan/ton [16] 3.2.8 Alumina - Market: The alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton. The domestic and overseas prices and basis showed different trends, and the futures inventory decreased [17][18] - Outlook: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting section is difficult to change in the short term. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 running in the range of 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [18] 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [19] - Outlook: The stainless steel market shows a pattern of narrow - range oscillation, with different price trends for different products. The overall market trading atmosphere is weak, and the cold - rolled steel trading is particularly sluggish [19] 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the inventory increased slightly [20] - Outlook: The downstream of the cast aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost support is strong, and the market activity is increasing. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [20] 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The rebar main contract closed at 3109 yuan/ton, down 0.44%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3342 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The inventory increased, and the demand was weak [22][23] - Outlook: The steel market is in a weak situation. The demand is still weak in the peak season, and the steel price may decline further if the demand cannot be effectively repaired [23] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 805 yuan/ton, with no change. The supply decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [24][25] - Outlook: The iron ore price is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of steel mill production and the peak - season demand [25] 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market: The glass price decreased slightly. The domestic glass inventory increased, and the downstream demand was not significantly improved [26] - Outlook: The glass price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. In the long term, it will follow the macro sentiment, and the price may rise if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector [26] - Soda Ash - Market: The soda ash price was stable. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was cautious [27] - Outlook: The soda ash price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. In the long term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the weak downstream demand [27] 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The manganese silicon main contract (SM509) rose 0.27%, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) rose 0.14%. The spot prices were stable, and the basis showed different trends [28] - Outlook: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the pressure and support levels [28] 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market: The industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) rose 3.03%. The spot prices were stable, and the basis showed different trends [32] - Outlook: The industrial silicon price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the news drive and risk control [32][33] - Polysilicon - Market: The polysilicon main contract (PS2511) fell 1.19%. The spot prices decreased slightly, and the basis was negative [34] - Outlook: The polysilicon price is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The price is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the risk control [34][35] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal [37] - Outlook: The rubber price may rise due to the rainy weather in Thailand. The mid - term view is bullish, and the short - term view is neutral, suggesting waiting and seeing or quick - in and quick - out operations [37][38][39] 3.4.2 Crude Oil - Market: The INE main crude oil futures rose 0.58% to 486.2 yuan/barrel. The US EIA data showed that the crude oil and refined product inventories increased [40][41] - Outlook: The oil price is currently undervalued, and the fundamental support is strong. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price may rise further. It is recommended to be long on crude oil [41] 3.4.3 Methanol - Market: The methanol 01 contract rose 9 yuan/ton. The domestic supply increased, the overseas supply was at a high level, and the demand showed different trends [42] - Outlook: The short - term reality is weak, but the market expectation has changed. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the 1 - 5 positive spread [42] 3.4.4 Urea - Market: The urea 01 contract fell 14 yuan/ton. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [43] - Outlook: The urea price is expected to be in a range - bound operation. It is recommended to buy on dips [43] 3.4.5 Styrene - Market: The spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased. The BZN spread is at a low level, and the cost and supply - demand sides show different trends [44][45] - Outlook: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory reaches the inflection point [44] 3.4.6 PVC - Market: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand was weak [46][47] - Outlook: The PVC market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the impact of anti - involution sentiment [47] 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan. The supply decreased marginally, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [48] - Outlook: The ethylene glycol inventory is expected to increase in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [48] 3.4.8 PTA - Market: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan. The supply decreased marginally, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [49] - Outlook: The PTA market is in a pattern of de - stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX, paying attention to the peak - season terminal performance [49] 3.4.9 p - Xylene - Market: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan. The supply increased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [50] - Outlook: The PX price is expected to be oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil, paying attention to the peak - season demand [50][51] 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE futures price decreased. The cost support exists, the supply is limited, and the demand is expected to increase [52] - Outlook: The PE price is expected to oscillate upward [52] 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP futures price decreased. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound [53] - Outlook: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy on dips the LL - PP2601 contract [53] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The supply is expected to be high in September, but there are potential support factors such as consumption and stockpiling [55] - Outlook: The pig price is expected to be in a narrow - range adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level rebound and short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse spread strategy [55] 3.5.2 Eggs

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals. For example, the capital market is supported by policies, but short - term fluctuations may occur. In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term oscillations are likely. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Message**: Two departments clarify tax policies for state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich social security funds; Musk says Optimus robots may be widely used in the next few years; Yushu Technology plans to submit an IPO application in Q4; US and UK bond yields rise [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy is supportive of the capital market. After recent continuous rises, short - term market fluctuations may intensify, but the general strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined. There are news about visa - free policies for Russia and high UK bond yields. The central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Although the manufacturing PMI improved in August but remained below the boom - bust line, and exports may face pressure. With loose funds and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline, but the bond market may oscillate in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices rose. The weak US economic data and potential Fed policy changes supported precious metal prices. - **Outlook**: The Fed may enter an unexpected interest - rate cut cycle, which will be beneficial to precious metals. Silver may outperform gold, and the strategy is to go long on silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper supply pressure was relieved by factors such as tight scrap supply and smelting maintenance. - **Outlook**: With a high probability of Fed rate cuts and strong price support, copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was relatively low, and demand was marginally improving. - **Outlook**: With a dovish Fed signal, aluminum prices are supported. Attention should be paid to inventory changes, and prices may rise if the inventory turns [11]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a low - level oscillation. Zinc concentrate inventory increased seasonally, and social inventory of zinc ingots continued to rise. - **Outlook**: Despite high Fed rate - cut expectations, the industry is in an oversupply situation, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices were expected to strengthen. Lead concentrate inventory decreased, and supply was marginally reduced. - **Outlook**: With high Fed rate - cut expectations, lead prices are expected to run strongly [13][14]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were weakly oscillating. Nickel iron prices were expected to be stable and strong, and the supply of intermediate products was tight. - **Outlook**: With positive macro - atmosphere and potential policy support, nickel prices have limited downside space. The strategy is to go long on dips [15]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly due to slow mine复产 and planned smelter maintenance, while demand was in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. There was a lack of positive drivers, and the market was in a weak adjustment. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news. The price reference range for the 2511 contract is 70,000 - 74,500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Ore supply was disturbed, and futures inventory increased. - **Outlook**: After a sharp decline, the downside space is limited. The strategy is to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices were strong. Concerns about nickel supply and approaching traditional consumption seasons supported prices. - **Outlook**: With the approaching of the consumption season, demand is expected to increase, and prices may rise [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The market was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and costs were supportive. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to run at a high level in the short - term [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices declined slightly. Production was high, demand was weak, and inventory was accumulating. - **Outlook**: If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and production restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments increased, and steel production decreased. - **Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mill restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices were stable. Production was high, inventory decreased, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and may rise if policies are favorable [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices were stable. Production increased, inventory decreased, and demand was average. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may rise in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon prices were weakly oscillating, and ferrosilicon prices declined slightly. - **Outlook**: With the weakening of "anti - involution" sentiment, prices are expected to move towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak before mid - October, and the strategy is to wait and see [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, and the market was in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate highly, and may rise if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU oscillated. Weather in Thailand may push prices up, and there are different views on supply and demand. - **Strategy**: A long - term bullish view. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 position is suggested [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices rose. Geo - political premiums disappeared, but prices were undervalued. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view, but avoid chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and the market was in a weak state. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [42][43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply decreased, demand was mainly from exports, and inventory was high. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices is recommended [44]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices declined, and the basis strengthened. Supply was increasing, demand was improving seasonally, and inventory was high. - **Outlook**: Prices may rebound after inventory decreases [45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices declined. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and exports were expected to decline. - **Strategy**: A short - position is recommended [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was recovering from the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: Prices may decline in the medium - term [48][49]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply was undergoing de - stocking, demand was improving, and processing fees were affected. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following PX is recommended [50]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices declined. Supply was high, downstream PTA had many unexpected maintenance, and inventory was expected to be low. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following crude oil is recommended [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices declined. Cost support exists, supply is limited, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate upwards [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices declined. Supply pressure is high, demand is rebounding seasonally, and inventory pressure is high. - **Strategy**: A long - position on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices is recommended [53]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices showed mixed trends. Supply may be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support prices. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, pay attention to low - level rebounds, and consider a far - month reverse spread [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was high, demand was average, and market sentiment was pessimistic. - **Strategy**: A short - position on the near - month contract on rebounds and a reverse spread are recommended [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly. Inventory is high, and de - stocking depends on the inflection point of processing volume and arrivals. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices within the cost range is recommended [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils rebounded. Indian palm oil imports were large, and there are multiple factors supporting prices. - **Strategy**: Palm oil may rise in Q4 due to the B50 policy. An oscillating and strengthening view is taken before inventory accumulates and demand feedback is negative [59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar gap is expected to narrow, and domestic supply may increase. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is maintained. The downward space depends on the performance of the external market [61][62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline, and domestic inventory is low. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic prosperity generally continues to expand, with the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August showing improvements [9]. - The real estate market remains under pressure, with the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises declining year - on - year [9]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been strengthening recently, and the market is optimistic about its continued strength until the end of this year [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties have different trends and investment suggestions, such as some being recommended for short - term observation and others for cautious trading [13][19]. - The A - share market has a mid - term bullish structure, but there may be short - term fluctuations and adjustments [23][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry Futures - On September 1, 2025, among chemical futures, coke, 20 - number rubber, plastic, polypropylene PP, and methanol showed price increases, while natural rubber, PTA, PVC, asphalt, etc. showed price decreases [6]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China's economic indicators in August showed positive trends, and some small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates [9]. - The sales of real - estate enterprises continued to decline, and the automobile inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line [9][10]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been strengthening recently, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar index and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread [11]. - There are international events such as the US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's policies and the negotiation between Japan and the US on trade and investment [10]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Futures Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures are in a short - term bottom - shock situation, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the progress of new peanut acquisitions [13]. - Sugar futures are at the lower end of the range, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to support and resistance levels [13]. - Corn futures are in a state of intense multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the listing rhythm of new grain and the breakthrough of the pressure level [13]. - Hog futures are in an interval - shock situation, with a near - weak and far - strong monthly spread, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [13]. - Egg futures are expected to have limited further declines in the spot market, and it is recommended to continue short - selling on rebounds in the futures market [15]. - Cotton futures may be oscillating strongly in the medium - long term and are expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the range of 14000 - 14500 should be focused on [15]. - Log futures are recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850, focusing on the improvement of real - estate funds and the expected reduction in New Zealand's supply [16]. - Pulp futures are recommended for cautious long - biased operations, paying attention to the upper pressure and lower support levels [16]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea futures' UR2601 contract may continue to operate in the range of 1700 - 1820 yuan/ton, and the opening of the Indian tender should be focused on [19]. - Caustic soda futures' 2601 contract is recommended to be treated with a long - biased idea on dips [19]. - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate repeatedly and operate in an oscillating manner [19]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper futures are recommended to take a long - biased approach once the price breaks through the oscillating range upwards [19]. - Aluminum futures are expected to continue to operate at a high level [19]. - Alumina futures' 2601 contract is operating weakly, and factors such as bauxite should be focused on [21]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures' prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term [21]. - Ferroalloy futures are expected to continue wide - range oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to capital control for hedging and caution for speculation [21]. - Lithium carbonate futures are recommended to wait and see, focusing on the policies of mines in Jiangxi, and if the support level is broken, it may test the 70000 - yuan mark [21]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - In stock index options, trend investors should pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors should go long on volatility when the underlying index rises and short on volatility when it falls [23]. - The A - share market has a mid - term bullish structure. Although there may be short - term fluctuations, the underlying logic of the market has not been falsified, and investors can reduce positions on rallies and use the 10 - day moving average as a mid - term trend watershed [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Policy factors, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand fundamentals all play important roles in influencing asset prices. For example, Powell's dovish speech has a positive impact on the commodity market, but different industries respond differently to these factors [3][6]. - In the stock index market, although there may be short - term shocks after continuous rises, the general direction is to go long on dips. In the bond market, there is still room for interest rates to decline, but the short - term may return to a volatile pattern due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [3][5]. - For precious metals, a new round of Fed easing cycle is expected to start, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying silver on dips. In the non - ferrous metal market, most metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals and Fed policies, with prices showing different trends [6][7]. - In the black building materials market, the demand for steel products is weak, and if the demand cannot improve, prices may continue to decline. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [22][24]. - In the energy chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, the rubber price is expected to be volatile and strong, while the PVC market has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand [35][46]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather conditions. For example, the short - term pig price may be stable or decline, and the cotton price may have upward momentum in the short term [54][64]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment, satellite internet licenses will be issued, the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3900 points, and the ETF trading volume is booming. Also, RoyaltyPharma will pay $885 million for the royalty of a monoclonal antibody [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the short - term may be volatile, but the long - term is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Quotes**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The Shanghai 6 - department jointly issued a real - estate policy, and the central bank issued 45 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong [4]. - **Liquidity and Strategy**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 2.19 billion yuan on Monday. The economy may face export pressure, but the funds are expected to be loose. The interest rate may decline, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver rose slightly, while COMEX gold and silver fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium indicates a new round of interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metal Category Copper - **Market Quotes**: The domestic copper price rose. The social inventory and bonded - area inventory decreased, and the basis was firm. The scrap - copper substitution advantage increased [9]. - **Price Outlook**: The Fed's dovish stance and the tight supply of copper raw materials support the copper price, which is expected to rise steadily [9]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: The domestic aluminum price rose slightly, but the increase was limited due to the increase in inventory. The spot was at a premium, and the downstream bought on dips [10]. - **Price Outlook**: The Fed's dovish signal and the expected de - stocking in the peak season support the aluminum price, which is expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The zinc price rose slightly. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the zinc - smelting production was expected to be high [11]. - **Price Outlook**: The Fed's dovish stance provides support for the zinc price, and it is difficult to have a large decline in the short term [11]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: The lead price rose slightly. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the supply increased marginally [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term lead price has support, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term due to terminal consumption pressure [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The nickel - ore price was weak, and the nickel - iron price was under pressure. The intermediate - product market was short of supply [13]. - **Price Outlook**: The macro - environment is positive, but the industrial supply is in surplus, and the nickel price is expected to be volatile [13]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: The tin price rose. The supply was low, and the demand was weak in the off - season [14]. - **Price Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be volatile in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation [14][15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The carbonate - lithium price adjusted. The supply - demand situation improved, and the pressure of inventory accumulation decreased [16]. - **Price Outlook**: The support level of the lithium price may rise in the peak season, and attention should be paid to overseas supply [16]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina price rose. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [17]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply - side disturbance and the Fed's dovish stance support the alumina price, which is recommended to be observed in the short term [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel price rose. The social inventory increased, and the downstream was cautious in purchasing [18]. - **Price Outlook**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be volatile due to the impact of low - price resources and the support of steel mills [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The cast - aluminum - alloy price rose. The cost support was strong, and the downstream demand was picking up [19]. - **Price Outlook**: The cast - aluminum - alloy price may continue to rise, but the large difference between futures and spot prices may limit the upward space [19]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of both increased, and the demand was weak [21][22]. - **Price Outlook**: The steel demand is weak, and if the demand cannot improve, the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [22]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron - ore price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [23][24]. - **Price Outlook**: The iron - ore price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term due to the Fed's dovish stance and the stable supply [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass price was weak. The inventory increased, and the demand from the real - estate market was not significantly improved. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may rise in the long term if policies are effective [25]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price was stable. The inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may rise in the long term [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rebounded. The manganese - silicon price broke the short - term upward trend, and the ferrosilicon price was close to the support line [27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative positions observe, and hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial - silicon price fell. The supply was in surplus, and the demand support was limited. The price is expected to be volatile [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon price rose. The production continued to increase, and the market was in a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation". The price is expected to be highly volatile [32][33]. Energy Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The tire - opening rate increased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The rubber price is expected to be volatile and strong. A neutral - long strategy with short - term trading is recommended [36][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil rose, while INE crude oil fell. The inventory of refined oil products decreased [41]. - **Outlook**: The oil price is considered undervalued, and the long - position allocation is maintained, but it is not recommended to chase the high price [41]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol price rose. The cost increased, and the supply increased. The demand was weak, and the inventory increased [42]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity in the future [42]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea price rose. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The export was advancing, and the inventory increased [43]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips as the price has limited downward space [43]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The styrene price fell. The cost support existed, and the inventory increased. The demand was picking up [44][45]. - **Outlook**: The styrene price may rebound when the inventory starts to decline [44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC price rose. The cost increased, and the supply was strong. The demand was weak, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe due to the poor fundamental situation [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The ethylene - glycol price rose. The supply increased, and the demand was picking up. The inventory decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is supported, but the medium - term valuation may decline [47][48]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA price fell. The supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [49]. - **Outlook**: The PTA processing fee is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on dips following PX [49]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply was high, and the demand from PTA was affected by maintenance. The inventory was low [50]. - **Outlook**: The p - xylene price is expected to rise following crude oil in the peak season [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The PE price rose. The cost support existed, and the inventory decreased. The demand was picking up [51]. - **Outlook**: The PE price is expected to rise steadily [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The PP price rose. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory pressure was high [52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [52]. Agricultural Product Category Live Pig - **Market Quotes**: The pig price mainly fell. The supply was excessive, and the demand was general [54]. - **Strategy**: The short - term pig price may be stable or decline. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and the far - month reverse - spread strategy continues [54]. Egg - **Market Quotes**: The egg price was mostly stable with a slight increase. The supply was normal, and the demand was picking up [55]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is in a negative cycle of oversupply. It is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The US soybean price fell, and the domestic soybean - meal price was relatively weak. The supply and demand were both strong, and the inventory was high [56][57]. - **Strategy**: The soybean - meal price is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to go long on dips at the low - cost range [58]. Edible Oils - **Market Quotes**: The palm - oil export increased, and the domestic three - major - oil inventory was high. The spot basis was stable [59][60]. - **Strategy**: The edible - oil price is supported. The palm - oil price is expected to be volatile and strong before the inventory accumulates and the demand feedback appears [61]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The sugar price was strong. The international supply may increase, and the domestic import supply will increase [62][63]. - **Outlook**: The sugar price is likely to continue to decline [63]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The cotton price was strong. The downstream consumption was general, but the inventory was low [64]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price may have upward momentum in the short term due to the approaching peak season and low inventory [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial results, and the determination and difficulty of the policy should not be underestimated. The summer travel consumption has a certain pulling effect on CPI, and future attention should be paid to the potential transmission of employment income. For PPI, the price has declined compared to last month, and the key to future price elasticity still lies in the demand side. The market is in a strong stage with high capital risk appetite, but the sector rotation is fast, and the market of strong sectors is difficult to last. It is recommended to cash in some profits at high prices and look for low-sucking opportunities for IF, IM, and IC [16][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On August 12, 2025, among chemical products, coke had the largest increase with a rise of 90.50 yuan and a growth rate of 5.384%, while 20 - number rubber had the largest decrease with a decline of 25.0 yuan and a decrease rate of -0.198% [3]. Agricultural Products - On August 12, 2025, among agricultural products, cotton had the largest increase with a rise of 220.0 yuan and a growth rate of 1.608%, while rapeseed meal had the largest decrease with a decline of 61.0 yuan and a decrease rate of -2.239% [3]. Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Education revised the management measures for funds supporting the development of preschool education. Ant Group and China National Rare Earth Group refuted the rumor of "co - building the world's first rare earth RMB stablecoin." Ningde Times' lithium mine suspension led to a full - board limit up of lithium carbonate futures and a rise in the spot and stock markets. Trump's team expanded the scope of candidates for the Fed Chairman. Mexico set a minimum export price for fresh tomatoes. The refined oil price may be stranded for the fourth time this year. Hangzhou solicited opinions on promoting the development of embodied intelligent robot industry [5][6][7]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but maintain a downward trend. Sugar futures are in a multi - empty intertwined situation, and it is recommended to operate within the 5550 - 5600 yuan range. Corn futures are in a supply - demand weak pattern, and it is recommended to conduct band trading within the 2250 - 2280 yuan range. The national average price of live pigs is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The national egg spot is stable, and it is recommended to reduce speculative short positions and arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. Cotton prices are under pressure and support, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The caustic soda price in Shandong is expected to be stable, and that in East China is expected to be weakly stable. Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly. The copper price is adjusting, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment. The alumina price is expected to continue range consolidation. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity. The lithium carbonate price has broken through the previous high, and it is recommended to try long positions on dips [10][11][13]. Industrial Metals - On August 11, the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 electrolytic copper was 79,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of A00 aluminum was 20,630 yuan/ton. The copper price continued to adjust, and the aluminum price was under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The average price of alumina was 3,249 yuan/ton, and it was expected to continue range consolidation. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [13]. Option Finance - On August 11, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The stock index futures increased in positions and volume, and the basis of the current - month contract of IF futures decreased. It is recommended that trend investors pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [15]. Stock Index Analysis - On August 11, the A - share market was strong, but the sector rotation was fast. The market is in a strong stage with high capital risk appetite, and it is recommended to cash in some profits at high prices and look for low - sucking opportunities for IF, IM, and IC [16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs; domestically, watch the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term. Consider the stock - bond seesaw effect and go long on dips [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Maintain a bullish view on silver. Suggest going long on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak. For example, copper, aluminum, and zinc are under pressure, while lead shows relative strength [8][9][10]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices may be affected by policies and demand. Iron ore prices are short - term strong. Glass and soda ash have different trends based on supply and demand [21][23][25]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy chemicals have different trends. For example, rubber may be bullish in the medium - term, while crude oil is in a multi - empty game [34][39]. - **Agricultural Products**: The livestock market is in a stalemate, and the egg market is expected to be stable. The soybean meal market is multi - empty intertwined, and the oil market is expected to fluctuate [52][53][55]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Equity Index**: In June, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates. The central bank will adjust policies according to the situation. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, watch the July meeting. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Monday, bond futures declined. In June, social financing and money supply grew. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. China's exports and imports increased in June. Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term, and consider the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined slightly. Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are mixed. Maintain a bullish view on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. LME and domestic inventories increased. Expect copper prices to be weak and volatile [8]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased more than expected. Expect aluminum prices to be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore supply is loose. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - **Lead**: Lead supply is relatively loose, but battery demand is improving. LME lead shows strength, while Shanghai lead's upside is limited [12]. - **Nickel**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are under pressure. Suggest going short on nickel on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Supply is low, and demand is weak. Expect tin prices to be weak and volatile [14]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Lithium prices rebounded. Supply is expected to remain high. Suggest paying attention to news and market sentiment [15]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Suggest going short on rallies considering the over - capacity situation [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is the traditional off - season for stainless steel. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [17]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is the off - season. Supply and demand are weak. Prices face resistance [18][19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. Supply and demand decreased, and inventories are at a low level. Follow policy signals and demand recovery [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Supply is stable, and demand decreased. Expect prices to be strong in the short - term [23][24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded due to policy expectations. Soda ash prices are expected to be weak due to supply and inventory pressure [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Prices rose slightly. Suggest waiting and watching due to the uncertain trend [27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. The industry has over - supply and insufficient demand. Suggest using the rebound for hedging [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU rose significantly. Suggest a bullish medium - term view and a neutral - to - bullish short - term view [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, while INE crude oil prices rose. The market is in a multi - empty game. Suggest waiting and watching [39]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to be weak due to supply and demand. Suggest waiting and watching [40]. - **Urea**: Prices have support but limited upside. Suggest going long on dips [41]. - **Styrene**: Prices may follow the cost side. BZN is expected to repair [42]. - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand. Prices are expected to be weak [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand are changing. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [45]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. Suggest going long on dips following PX [46]. - **Para - xylene**: PX is expected to destock in the third quarter. Suggest going long on dips following crude oil [47]. - **Polyethylene PE**: Prices may fluctuate due to trade policies and inventory [48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July. LL - PP spread may widen [50]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Pig prices may be stable or decline. Short - term long positions may have space, but there are medium - term risks [52]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be stable. Suggest waiting for a rebound to go short [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is multi - empty intertwined. Suggest going long on dips [54][56]. - **Oils**: EPA policy is positive, but there are still bearish factors. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [57][59]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices may decline. Import pressure may increase [60][61]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices may fluctuate. There are potential bearish factors [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin industry currently lacks positive drivers. Plastics are slightly better than PP. There is an opportunity to focus on the upward trend of the plastic - PP spread [1]. - For polyethylene (PE), the cost support from crude oil has weakened. Although supply pressure is expected to decrease, demand support is limited. Short - term prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the positive spread opportunity of the 09 - 01 contract. - For polypropylene (PP), the cost support has weakened. Although the supply pressure is expected to ease, the restart of previous maintenance devices and the expansion of a 90 - million - ton/year device in mid - to - late July will weaken the positive impact on the supply side. Demand support is insufficient. Temporarily lacking positive drivers, PP prices may fluctuate downward, and the plastic - PP 09 contract spread may have an upward trend [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Polyethylene (PE) - Cost: Geopolitical premium has temporarily left. OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices, and the EIA US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased. The refined oil cracking spread has not improved, and the global tariff trade situation still poses concerns about demand. Crude oil prices may decline, providing insufficient support for plastics [7]. - Supply: Current production is at a high level in recent years, with weekly capacity utilization and production increasing month - on - month. However, the restart expectation of previous maintenance devices is low, and there are new device maintenance plans, which support prices [7]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up of PE has slightly decreased and is still lower than the same period in previous years. The off - season atmosphere continues, and terminal consumption is mainly on a "use - as - you - go" basis, with weak downstream orders [7]. - Import and Export: The import profits of LLDPE and HDPE have rebounded month - on - month, and the import profit of LDPE has increased [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory has increased month - on - month, and trade inventory is still accumulating [7]. - Gross Margin: Oil - based profits have increased, while coal - based profits have declined [7]. - Spread: The 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend [7]. 3.1.2 Polypropylene (PP) - Cost: Geopolitical premium has temporarily left. OPEC+ production increase and the high US crude oil inventory put pressure on oil prices. The refined oil cracking spread has not improved, and the global tariff trade situation still affects demand. The coal market is stable. Overall, the cost support for PP has weakened [9]. - Supply: PP capacity utilization and production have decreased month - on - month but are still at a high level in recent years. There are many device maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the impact of the expansion of a 90 - million - ton/year device in mid - to - late July on the East China market supply [9]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up rate has declined. Downstream raw material inventory has decreased, finished product inventory pressure is not large, and orders are generally weak [9]. - Import and Export: The import profit loss has widened month - on - month, and the export profit has slightly increased [9]. - Inventory: PP production enterprise inventory has different trends, trader inventory has slightly increased, and production enterprise inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in recent years [9]. - Gross Margin: Except for the decline in coal - based profits, oil - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP profits have increased [9]. - Spread: Similar to PE, the 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend [9]. 3.2 Next Week's Focus - On Wednesday (July 9): API and EIA crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4, EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending July 4, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending July 4, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, China's CPI annual rate in June, and the end of the US reciprocal tariff suspension period. - On Thursday (July 10): Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5, EIA natural gas inventory in the US for the week ending July 4, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in June. - On Friday (July 11): IEA's monthly crude oil market report. - On Saturday (July 12): US oil rig count for the week ending July 11 [12]. 3.3 Polyethylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Spot prices have declined, and futures prices have fluctuated. As of July 4, the LLDPE futures main contract 09 was reported at 7282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous week. The LLDPE basis was - 2 yuan/ton, with little change from the previous week [15]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of the week ending July 4, due to the restart of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Shanghai SECCO, polyethylene production was 61.9 million tons, an increase of 2.36 million tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, an increase of 0.77% from the previous period [19]. - Maintenance Loss: As of the week ending July 4, the domestic polyethylene maintenance loss was 11.03 million tons, a decrease of 2.57 million tons from the previous period. The estimated maintenance loss next week is 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.97 million tons from this week [23]. - Downstream Start - up: As of the week ending July 4, the overall downstream start - up rate of polyethylene was 38.05%, a decrease of 3.18% from the previous week, still lower than the same period in previous years. The agricultural film start - up rate decreased by 0.26%, and the PE packaging film sample enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.5% [33]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, the agricultural film raw material inventory increased by 0.14 days to 8.18 days, the PE packaging film raw material inventory increased by 0.11 days to 8.04 days, and the PE pipe raw material inventory decreased by 0.07 days to 7.13 days [35]. - Import Profit: On July 4, the import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE were - 6 yuan/ton (a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous week), 126 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 604 yuan/ton (an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [44]. - Profit Margin: As of the week ending July 4, the oil - based linear cost was 7646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 338 yuan/ton from the previous period; the coal - based linear profit was 5869 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton from the previous period [46]. - Futures Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, the plastic futures trading volume increased by 13,215 lots to 355,370 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest decreased by 22,961 lots to 580,694 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 100 to 5,831 lots [51][53]. 3.4 Polypropylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Polypropylene spot prices have weakly declined, with a price fluctuation range of 7166 - 7204 yuan/ton. As of July 4, the PP futures main contract 09 was reported at 7078 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous week. The term basis has narrowed, and the East China polypropylene basis has weakened to 64 yuan/ton [55]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of the week ending July 4, domestic polypropylene production was 77.37 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons or 1.96% from the previous week; compared with the same period last year, it increased by 12.52 million tons or 19.31%. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous period [59]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 4, the domestic polypropylene device weekly loss was 21.632 million tons, a 11.93% increase from the previous week. Next week, the maintenance loss is expected to decline. The average capacity utilization rate is expected to slightly rebound to around 77.5% [63]. - Downstream Start - up: As of the week ending July 4, the overall downstream start - up rate of PP decreased. The plastic weaving start - up rate decreased by 1% to 42.2%, the BOPP start - up rate decreased by 0.14% to 60.27%, and the injection molding product start - up rate decreased by 0.72% to 51.33% [67]. - Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory and Orders: As of the week ending July 4, downstream raw material inventory decreased, finished product inventory pressure was not large, and orders were generally weak. The average order days of the polypropylene downstream product industry were 7.59 days, a 1.30% decrease from the previous week, and the downstream average start - up rate is expected to continue to decline next week [70]. - Inventory: As of July 4, polypropylene commercial inventory was 78.58 million tons. Production enterprise total inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 57.01 million tons, trader inventory increased by 1.46 million tons to 14.97 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons to 6.57 million tons [77]. - Import and Export Profits: As of the week ending July 4, the PP import gross margin was - 523 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month - on - month. The export profit was - 1.59 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous period [81]. - Futures Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, the PP futures trading volume decreased by 16,487 lots to 255,730 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest increased by 770 lots to 593,335 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 112 lots to 7,292 lots [90][92][94]. 3.5 Spread Tracking - The 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend. As of July 4, the plastic 09 - 01 futures contract spread was 39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. The PP 09 - 01 futures contract spread was 36, a decrease of 26 from the previous week. The 09 - contract L - PP spread was 204 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [97][101].