1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are fluctuating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, with limited price volatility. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials will begin, and the game between reality and expectations will intensify. Plates are still restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. - The market sentiment for iron ore has improved, and prices are slightly fluctuating. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The price is at a high - level range in the short term but may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled [3]. - The molten iron output has slightly increased, and coking coal and coke prices are fluctuating widely. After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve, while the supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term [5][6]. - The pit - mouth coal price is adjusting, and the supply in the production area is recovering. The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The national building material prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the national building material trading volume was 96,623 tons [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have no obvious supply - demand contradictions, maintaining low production, consumption, and inventory. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will start. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated upward, and the trading volume increased significantly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Shandong ports rose slightly, with low trading volume and low procurement intention from steel mills [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The market gives a high valuation to the iron ore price, but it may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain a high - level range [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The coke market continued to be weak and stable, and the inventory pressure of upstream coke has been alleviated. The coking coal auction prices mostly continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coking coal decreased [5]. - Supply and demand logic: After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term. After the winter storage, the price may be further adjusted [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Fluctuating; Coke: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal mines are resuming production, and the pit - mouth coal price is adjusting. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the trading volume at ports is light. The import coal market is rising steadily [7]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good. After New Year's Day, the supply in the production area is gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7].

黑色建材日报 2026-01-07 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3111 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.225%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.29 万手，环比增加 14597 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3263 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 15 元/吨（0.461%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 127 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry continues to reduce production and inventory. Rebar maintains a large supply - demand gap and good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand and weak demand in 2026 limit price upward elasticity, but production cuts support steel prices. Raw materials like coking coal and iron ore are expected to drive steel prices to fluctuate upward within a range (rebar 3000 - 3200, hot - rolled coil 3150 - 3350) [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will transition from loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand. High inventory suppresses prices, while low - inventory restocking expectations support prices. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with short - term prices fluctuating strongly in the range of 770 - 840 [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coking coal, the spot market is weak, with increased inventory and weak downstream demand. For coke, after the fourth round of price cuts, there is still a price - cut expectation. Both suggest short - selling at high prices and the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance in the alloy market. The price is expected to fluctuate, with silicon iron in the range of 5500 - 6000 and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices show different trends. For example, rebar spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while steel production costs and profits changed. For example, Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 21 yuan/ton, and East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output remained stable, while the output of five major steel products increased by 2.3% (815.2 tons), rebar output increased by 2.1% (188.2 tons), and hot - rolled coil output increased by 3.7% (304.5 tons) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.1% (1232.2 tons), rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% (422.0 tons), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.7% (371.0 tons) [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 11.3% (9.7 tons), the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 0.9% (841.0 tons), rebar apparent demand decreased by 1.1% (200.4 tons), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.2% (310.8 tons) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and basis showed different changes. For example, the cost of Kafen warehouse receipts increased by 0.8% (870.8 yuan/ton), and the 05 - contract basis of Kafen increased by 3.8% (69.8 yuan/ton) [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 6.0% (2756.4 tons), the global shipment volume decreased by 12.6% (3213.7 tons), and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% (11054.0 tons) [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% (227.4 tons), the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 3.2% (325.2 tons), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.3% (15970.89 tons), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.0% (8946.5 tons), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% (20.0 days) [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - Coking coal and coke prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged (1511 yuan/ton), and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged (1230 yuan/ton) [6] Supply and Demand - Coking coal supply increased slightly after the New Year, but sales were poor and inventory accumulated. Coke production decreased due to pressure on coking profits. Demand for both was affected by steel mill production [6] Inventory Changes - Coking coal and coke inventories increased at various levels, including mines, coking plants, and steel mills [6] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry Prices and Spreads - Silicon iron and silicon manganese prices showed different trends. For example, the silicon iron主力 contract increased by 2.74% (5776.0 yuan/ton), and the silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 Guangxi spot price decreased by 0.5% (5700.0 yuan/ton) [8] Cost and Profit - The production cost and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese changed. For example, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicon iron increased by 0.3% (5815.3 yuan/ton), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia silicon iron decreased by 36.2 yuan [8] Supply - The output of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history [8] Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese was supported by the increase in pig iron output. For example, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.44% (227.4 tons) [8] Inventory Changes - The inventories of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained high, and the inflection point had not appeared [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore industry will enter a deep adjustment period characterized by "intensified supply relaxation, moderate demand recovery, and a downward shift in the price center," with an annual trend of "stable in the front and declining in the back" [2][34]. - The core contradiction in the industry will shift from "supply shortage" to "insufficient demand," and the focus of competition will be on high - grade resources, cost - control capabilities, and green and low - carbon transformation [2][34]. - Policy regulation will continuously guide the high - quality development of the industry, the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain will tilt towards steel mills, and mining companies will face pressure from profit squeezing and intensified competition [2][34]. - ESG and geopolitical factors are becoming increasingly prominent as important variables in the industry's development [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Annual Market Review - **Initial Surge Phase (Early January - Mid - February)**: Prices rose from about 780 yuan/ton to nearly 840 yuan/ton. The driving factors were the release of domestic steel mills' post - Spring Festival restocking demand, the decline in the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian mines due to seasonal weather, and the market's optimistic expectations for the early - year growth - stabilization policies [3]. - **Decline and Adjustment Phase (Mid - February - Early June)**: Prices oscillated and declined from the high level, reaching an annual low of about 710 - 720 yuan/ton in early June. The reasons were the recovery of Australian and Brazilian shipments after the weather impact subsided, the release of new production capacity of the four major mines, the weak demand for construction steel, the squeeze on steel mill profits, and the increase in port inventories [4]. - **Oscillatory Recovery Phase (Early June - December)**: Prices gradually recovered from the low level and approached the high - level range of 830 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The drivers were the acceleration of domestic infrastructure project implementation, the launch of real - estate support policies, the expansion of steel production capacity in India and ASEAN, the slower - than - expected actual shipment volume of the Simandou project, and the market's optimistic expectations for demand recovery in the second half of the year [5]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: In 2026, the supply of mainstream iron ore is expected to grow. In Oceania, Australia's total output is expected to reach 9.86 billion tons, with an increase of 167.8 million tons year - on - year. In South America, Brazil's total output is expected to reach 4.84 billion tons, with an increase of 50.6 million tons year - on - year [8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: In South Asia, India's iron ore output is expected to continue growing in 2026. With the implementation of the "National Steel Policy 2017," India's iron ore demand and output will be directly boosted, and its imports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 80% [11]. - **Domestic Mines**: Affected by resource endowment and cost constraints, domestic production shows a slight downward trend. The "Cornerstone Plan" failed to achieve the goal of adding 100 million tons of iron concentrate in 2025, and the domestic mines' substitution effect on imported ores is limited, with the import dependence remaining above 80% [15]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, China's iron ore demand was weak. The consumption of construction steel decreased significantly, while the demand for manufacturing steel showed structural growth. In 2026, domestic iron ore demand may be further squeezed, but the development of the manufacturing and emerging industries will provide some support [20][21]. - **Overseas Demand**: In 2026, overseas iron ore demand growth is relatively certain. India, ASEAN, and Africa will be the main growth points, while the EU and the US will show a "weak recovery" trend, and Japan and South Korea will have weak demand. The growth quality depends on the policy implementation and production capacity release of emerging economies [26][27]. 3.4 Inventory - The total global iron ore inventory is expected to increase by 8% - 10% year - on - year in 2026, approaching 1.5 billion tons at the end of the year. The inventory pattern will be characterized by "high - level pressure on the total amount and significant structural differentiation," which will continuously suppress prices [2][28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report formulates a supply - demand balance sheet for iron ore to reflect the market supply and demand situation and makes corresponding forecasts for the iron ore supply and demand in 2024 [33]. 3.6 Conclusion and Outlook - **Conclusion**: The industry will enter a deep adjustment period in 2026, with the core contradiction shifting and the competition focus changing. Policy regulation will guide the industry's high - quality development, and ESG and geopolitical factors will have a greater impact [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply will be loose, the global iron ore output is expected to reach 26.78 billion tons, and the price center will decline. The Simandou project will reshape the supply pattern. The demand will show a moderate recovery, mainly from emerging economies. The profit distribution will tilt towards steel mills, and policies at home and abroad will have a complex impact on the industry [35][36].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 China People's Bank Work Conference emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and planned to use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [8][22][28][30]. - Multiple factors drive the copper price to be strong. Supply - side concerns and long - term copper consumption recovery expectations, especially from emerging industries like AI computing centers,新能源 industries, and grid transformation, may lead to a continuous firm or rising copper price [9][10]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and the fermentation of geopolitical events [11][12][144]. - The silicon iron market is driven by emotions and medium - term expectations, and the price may rise, but the sustainability needs further confirmation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: Global geopolitical turmoil raises concerns about copper mine supply. The 2026 Chinese imported copper concentrate long - term TC is $0/ton, lower than in 2025. Some copper mines face potential labor disputes and production changes [9][24][26]. - **Demand - side**: Long - term copper consumption recovery expectations are strong. AI computing centers and other emerging industries, as well as the new energy industry and grid transformation, drive copper demand [9][10]. - **Price trend**: Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the copper price may remain firm or rise [10]. Zinc - **Market performance**: The zinc price is running strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed [27]. - **News influence**: Policy changes and geopolitical events may affect the zinc market [28]. Lead - **Market situation**: The LME lead inventory decrease supports the lead price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding trends [31]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate data influence the lead market [31]. Tin - **Market trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased, and the inventory has changed [34]. - **News impact**: Macroeconomic policies and corporate news affect the tin market [35]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: The aluminum price is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have all changed [37]. - **News influence**: Fed policy differences and geopolitical events affect the aluminum market [38]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market trend**: Platinum shows a recovery in sentiment and runs strongly, and palladium follows platinum. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have changed [39]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate news influence the market [42]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation, and stainless steel is affected by the fundamentals and Indonesian policies. The prices, trading volume, and open interest of nickel - related products have changed, and the Indonesian government has introduced relevant policies [43][44][46]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market performance**: The market sentiment of carbonate lithium is strong. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed [47]. - **News influence**: The price negotiation of lithium iron phosphate and the release of new battery products affect the market [48][49]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market trend**: Industrial silicon is affected by news and shows a strong performance, and polysilicon needs to pay attention to market news. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed [50]. - **News background**: The proposed implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi affects the industrial silicon market [51]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The iron ore price is fluctuating at a high level. The prices of iron ore futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have also shown corresponding trends [54][55]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market performance**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by market sentiment and are in a wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant policies have been introduced [58][59][60]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market trend**: The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are oscillating upwards. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed. The market is affected by potential electricity price increases and other factors [63][64][65]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation with accumulating contradictions. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed [67]. Logs - **Market performance**: The log price is oscillating at a low level. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of log futures and spot have changed [70][71][73]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market trend**: p - Xylene is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is in a high - level oscillation, and MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant products have changed, and market news affects the market [74][75][76]. Rubber - **Market situation**: The rubber price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the rubber cost support is strengthening [79][80][81]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market performance**: The short - term center of synthetic rubber moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by the cost of butadiene [82][83][84]. LLDPE - **Market trend**: The LLDPE price is firm, and the standard product production decreases. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships [85][86]. PP - **Market situation**: The PP price is weak. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PP futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by cost and demand [88][89]. Caustic Soda - **Market performance**: Caustic soda is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of caustic soda futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as delivery and supply - demand [90][91][92]. Pulp - **Market trend**: The pulp price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pulp futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and demand [95][97][98]. Glass - **Market situation**: The glass price is stable. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of glass futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by the holiday atmosphere and demand [100][101]. Methanol - **Market performance**: Methanol is strong in the short - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of methanol futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations [103][104][106]. Urea - **Market situation**: The urea price center moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of urea futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as demand expectations and inventory [108][109][110]. Styrene - **Market trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of styrene futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as valuation and supply - demand [113][114][115]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: The soda ash market changes little. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soda ash futures and spot have changed [117][119]. LPG and Propylene - **Market performance**: The LPG import cost is firm, and propylene demand is stable with a slight price increase. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LPG and propylene futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [121]. PVC - **Market trend**: PVC is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PVC futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [129][130][131]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market situation**: Fuel oil turns strong and is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures and spot have changed [134]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market performance**: The 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and geopolitical events. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant contracts have changed, and the shipping capacity and freight rates have also been affected [136][142][143]. Agricultural Products Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market situation**: Short - fiber and bottle chip are in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed [146][147]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market performance**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of offset printing paper futures and spot have changed, and the market demand is weak [149][150][152]. Pure Benzene - **Market situation**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the port inventory has increased [153][154]. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Market performance**: Palm oil is affected by macro - emotions, soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, and rapeseed oil shows corresponding price changes. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [157][158][159]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Market situation**: Soybean meal may oscillate, and soybeans are in an oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as Chinese purchases and USDA reports [162][163][164]. Corn - **Market performance**: Attention should be paid to the corn spot. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of corn futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot prices and import information [165][166][167]. Sugar - **Market situation**: Sugar is in a low - level consolidation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as production and import [169][170][171]. Cotton - **Market performance**: Cotton remains strong. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot trading and textile enterprise operations [174][175]. Eggs - **Market situation**: The far - month sentiment of eggs weakens. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of egg futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [178]. Hogs - **Market performance**: There is still inventory accumulation for hogs. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of hog futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [181][183][184]. Peanuts - **Market situation**: Peanuts are in an oscillating operation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the spot market price is relatively stable [187][188].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off-season of consumption, supply and demand are both weak, and winter storage is yet to come. With enhanced macro confidence and a strong stock market boosting market sentiment, futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading, and those with empty positions should avoid chasing up or selling down, instead adopting a volatile trading approach [3]. - For the iron ore sector, although the overall output of the five major steel products increased last week and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month, the market is still in the off-season, and molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is at a high level, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices. However, technically, the 05 contract is clearly supported by the 10-day moving average, and a medium-term upward trend is unfolding. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar and hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total output of the five major varieties rose month-on-month. Overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's continued to rise. Due to a significant drop in steel mill margins and the off-season, steel production may continue to decline. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal and coke futures prices has raised cost support for the market [3]. - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures also changed. For example, the rebar futures 10 - 1 spread was 74 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Production and Operation**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, and the average daily molten iron output was 227.43 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.1%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased, while the capacity utilization and operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 2.50% to 850.78 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 1.05% to 381.37 million tons. Rebar and hot-rolled coil social inventories decreased, while hot-rolled coil steel mill inventory increased [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties increased by 0.89% to 841.02 million tons. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's increased [3]. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month. However, in the off-season, molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Steel mills' production cuts suppress raw material prices, and the pre-holiday restocking demand will come later this year [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [5]. - **Price and Spread**: Iron ore spot and futures prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads of iron ore futures also changed. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was -15 yuan/dry ton, up 25.5 yuan from the previous value [6]. - **Shipping and Inventory**: Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased. The arrival volume at the six northern ports increased by 13.70% to 1512.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.71% to 15970.89 million tons [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available 2) Core View - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 802 with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 1, PB powder is 810 (daily +4, weekly +6), Mac powder is 812 (daily +4, weekly +10), etc. [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Ba mix price is 851 with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 11, Ba coarse IOC6 is 774 (daily +4, weekly +6), etc. [1] - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian iron concentrate powder is 889 (daily +5, weekly +7), 61% Indian powder is 752 (daily +4, weekly +6), etc. [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 976 with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -6 [1] 3.2 Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 price is 826.0 with a daily change of 11.5 and a weekly change of 10.0, i2605 is 801.0 (daily +4.0, weekly +4.5), i2609 is 780.0 (daily +5.0, weekly +6.5) [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 price is 105.97 with a daily change of 0.42 and a weekly change of 0.62, FE05 is 104.73 (daily +0.47, weekly +0.71), FE09 is 102.80 (daily +0.49, weekly +0.75) [1] 3.3 Other Information - **Import Profit**: Newman powder import profit is 11.84, Mac powder is 46.72, etc. [1] - **Month - to - Month Price Difference**: For i2601 - i2605, the month - to - month price difference is - 46.0 with a daily change of 10.4 and a weekly change of - 5.0, etc. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a strong upward trend since mid-December, with both futures and spot prices reaching new highs, supported by various market factors [1][5]. Group 1: Price Trends - Iron ore futures prices have broken through a five-month resistance level, reaching a peak of 105.80 USD/ton in the Platts iron ore price index [1]. - The spot price remains strong, with port transaction volumes increasing significantly [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Despite some positive indicators, the overall demand for iron ore remains weak, with steel mills' profitability still low; only 38.10% of surveyed steel mills are currently profitable [3]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to drive a temporary increase in demand as steel mills prepare for inventory replenishment, typically increasing by about 16.3 million tons in the four weeks leading up to the holiday [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Domestic port arrivals of iron ore have increased, with a total of 28.247 million tons reported, while global shipments remain high despite a recent weekly decline [4]. - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.218 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure in the market [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market fundamentals for iron ore remain weak, with limited upward momentum in prices expected due to ongoing supply pressures and constrained demand [5].

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 01 月 06 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 826.0 | 814.5 | 11.5 | I01-I05 | 25.0 | 17.5 | 7.5 | | DCE05 | 801.0 | 797.0 | 4.0 | I05-I09 | 21.0 | 22.0 | -1.0 | | DCE09 | 780.0 | 775.0 | 5.0 | I09-I01 | -46.0 | -39.5 | -6.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 802 | 798 | 4 | 871 | 49 | 66 | 88 | | 纽曼粉 | 804 | 800 | 4 | 879 | 57 | 74 | 96 | | 麦克粉 | 808 | 804 | 4 | 892 | 70 | 87 | 109 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, while plates are constrained by high inventory. After the New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials and potential steel mill restarts for plates should be monitored [1]. - The iron ore market shows a significant decline in global shipments. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the inventory is increasing. Although the short - term price is in high - level oscillation, it faces downward risk once negotiations are finalized [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with a weakening oscillation trend. After the New Year's Day, the demand for coke may improve with steel mill restarts, while coking coal prices may remain weak before winter storage and could be further adjusted after [5][6]. - The thermal coal market sees a recovery in production area supply, and the coal price is stabilizing in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still abundant, and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be watched [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures main contract declined slightly yesterday, and the spot prices generally fell, with rebar down 10 - 20 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil down 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have a stable supply - demand situation with limited price fluctuations. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will intensify the game between reality and expectation. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve due to potential mill restarts [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties increased slightly, but steel mills' procurement intention was low. Global iron ore shipments dropped significantly, with a 12.6% MoM decrease to 3214 million tons, while the 45 - port arrivals increased by 6% MoM to 2756 million tons [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and inventory is increasing. The market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices, but there is a downward risk once negotiations are settled. In the short term, the price will remain high - level oscillating [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main coking coal and coke futures contracts declined yesterday. The coking profit improved, and the demand from steel mills' blast furnaces increased slightly after New Year's Day. Coal mine production resumed, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume recovered rapidly, with the Mongolian 5 raw coal price at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Supply and demand logic: The demand for coke may improve after New Year's Day, and it will remain oscillating in the short term. Coking coal supply and demand are relatively loose, and its price will remain weakly oscillating before winter storage and could be adjusted further after [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production areas, coal prices fluctuated, and the group's purchased - in price and port price stabilized and rebounded. In the ports, the inventory decreased, driving a short - term price increase. The import market was inactive, with limited actual transactions [8]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still low, and the coal price is oscillating with the recovery of production area supply. In the long - term, the supply is abundant [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content