马士基在报告中指出，尽管面临前所未有的地缘政治波动，公司仍专注于运营改善，持续的红海危机预 计将持续全年，这在一定程度上缓解了行业船舶过剩问题。 全球需求分化：美国疲软，其他地区强劲 值得注意的是，马士基上调全球集装箱市场增长预期至2%至4%，此前预期为-1%至4%。 这一调整主要基于美国以外地区展现的需求韧性。马士基在报告中明确指出，"北美进口的收缩被欧 洲、拉丁美洲、西亚和非洲强劲的进口增长所抵消。"这种地区间需求分化为公司整体业绩提供了支 撑。 全球航运巨头马士基Q2业绩超预期，美国以外地区需求强劲。公司上调2025年财务展望，预计今年全 球集装箱市场将增长2%至4%，较此前预期大幅提升。 马士基CEO Vincent Clerc在接受采访时表示： 周四财报数据显示，马士基第二季度营收达131.3亿美元，超出市场预期的125.7亿美元。息税折旧摊销 前利润（EBITDA）为23亿美元，同样高于市场预期的19.9亿美元。 | | Q2 | Q2 | 6M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Income statement | 2025 ...

马士基CEO柯文胜表示，二季度业绩受益于"双子星"海运网络成功启动及运营改进计划，尽管市场波 动，全球贸易需求仍具韧性。目前，马士基将持续通过灵活应对、提升供应链适应性，助力客户应对干 扰并实现增长。 经济观察网8月7日，A.P.穆勒-马士基发布二季度财报，收入同比增长2.8%，息税前利润达8.45亿美元， 尽管环比有所下降，但同比保持稳定。得益于码头业务强劲(货量增9.9%、EBIT增31%至4.61亿美元)、 海运货量增长4.2%(亚洲出口为主要动力)及物流业务盈利提升，叠加运营优化与成本控制，公司上调全 年业绩指引。 ...

Market Overview - US stock futures rose, with S&P 500 futures up over 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures also increasing by more than 0.2% [1][5] - European stocks opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.3%, while the German DAX index rose 0.2% and the French CAC 40 index increased by 0.3% [2][7] - Asian markets strengthened, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rising by 1% [1] Commodity Movements - Oil prices ended a five-day decline, with both WTI and Brent crude oil rising over 0.6% [1][16] - Spot gold increased by more than 0.5%, and spot silver rose over 0.7% [4][12] Currency Fluctuations - The US dollar index fell by over 0.1%, while the euro and Japanese yen appreciated by over 0.1% and 0.3% respectively [2][10] - The New Taiwan dollar strengthened against the US dollar, rising by 0.9% [2] Bond Market - The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose by approximately 1 basis point, indicating mixed movements in bond yields [3][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and characteristics of the Wanji Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333), which has shown a slight increase in share price and significant growth in fund size this year [1][2] - As of August 6, 2024, the ETF has a total of 428 million shares and a total size of 604 million yuan, reflecting a 0.70% decrease in shares but a 17.60% increase in size compared to the end of 2023 [1] - The ETF has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, with a performance benchmark based on the adjusted yield of the Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index [1] Group 2 - The ETF's recent trading activity shows a cumulative transaction amount of 714 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily transaction amount of 35.70 million yuan [1] - The current fund manager, Yang Kun, has managed the ETF since its inception and has achieved a return of 41.12% during his tenure [1] - The top holdings of the ETF include major companies such as COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, and China CITIC Bank, with the largest holding being COSCO Shipping Holdings at 6.96% [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group 1. Overall Market Situation - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies slightly lowered freight rates. The futures market fluctuated significantly, with prices rising and then falling. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%, and for the US - West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. 2. Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index reached 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - In the US, the July Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. 3. Trade Policy and Geopolitical Situation - Trump's administration continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which affected transit trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a 25% small - scale price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties make market trading difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 4. Futures Market Analysis 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The short - term futures market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - short positions were recommended and profit - taking is advised. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and stop - losses should be set [5]. 4.2 Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international instability, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take light - position attempts [5]. 4.3 Long - term Strategy - For all contracts, it is recommended to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before making further decisions [5]. 4.4 Market Data - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. 5. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The shipping company's prices are adjusted frequently. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's WEEK34 prices will be revised again. The freight rate has entered a downward cycle, and the prices of different alliances are following the decline. There are different characteristics and risks for different contract months, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the monthly and weekly average capacities of China - European base ports in August and September vary, with additional overtime ships added by Maersk and OA Alliance [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's WEEK32 - 34 quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam decreased from 1846/3102 to 1590/2660, and different shipping companies' quotes for different time periods also have differences [1]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, discussing the Middle East situation, and Russia reiterated its stance on resolving regional issues through peaceful means [2]. 3. Shipping Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity of China - European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September is 297,100 TEU. There are 4 empty sailings in August (all from the OA Alliance) and 2 TBNs in September. Maersk added 2 overtime ships in August, and the OA Alliance added 3 overtime ships [3]. 4. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The top of the freight rate has appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. In normal years, October prices are 20% - 30% lower than August prices. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price during the downward cycle [5]. - **December Contract**: The off - peak and peak season rules still exist, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is usually high, and shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level [6]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 6, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 78,020 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 63,874 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. On August 1, the SCFI prices for different routes are also given [7]. 6. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched while being vigilant against volatility jumps [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the early part of the week, the market's bets on Fed rate cuts decreased due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and an increase in June PCE. However, the non - farm payrolls in July were below expectations, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rise in the unemployment rate under the backdrop of a three - month decline in the labor participation rate, increasing concerns about US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, August non - farm payrolls, and the selection of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and Fed leadership changes [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The comprehensive PMI in July was still above the critical point. The progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico should be monitored [5]. - **Asset Views**: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern persists, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on while being cautious of volatility jumps [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After events are settled, the crowding of funds is released. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With upward - trending volatility, the short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Concerns include unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: As the US fundamentals weaken and the market returns to the logic of restarting the rate - cut cycle, precious metals are oscillating strongly. Concerns include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. Concerns include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: With disruptions in coking coal supply, the futures price shows a strong performance. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With a healthy fundamental situation, the price is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and there is no expectation of price increases in the near future. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply disruptions continue, and the futures price has risen. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sentiment in the black chain is positive, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include cost prices and foreign quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak, and prices in Hubei are continuously decreasing. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and freight rates have declined. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, putting pressure on the copper price. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, less - than - expected recovery in domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the alumina price is under oscillatory pressure. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is oscillating. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Zinc**: With the rebound of black - series prices, the zinc price has slightly recovered. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Lead**: There is still support at the cost end, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory has exceeded 210,000 tons, and the nickel price is weakly oscillatory. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed up. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Tin**: The market atmosphere has improved, and the tin price has slightly rebounded. Concerns include the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and the cost end dominates the rhythm. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Asphalt**: The pressure on the spot market has increased, and the high - valued asphalt price has finally declined. Concerns include unexpected demand. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Methanol**: The rebound of the coal end has had some impact, and methanol is oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea will oscillate in the short term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and the expectation in August has shifted to inventory accumulation. Concerns include the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and device recovery. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. Concerns include the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and the processing fee is still under pressure. Concerns include the planned shutdown of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for short - fiber. Concerns include the procurement rhythm and start - up of downstream yarn mills. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production cut scale in August will continue to exceed 20%, and the support below the processing fee has increased. Concerns include the future start - up of bottle chips. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PP**: The support from oil and coal still shows differences, and PP is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Plastic**: There is a slight impact from the coal end, and plastic is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is oscillating downward. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market is emerging, and caustic soda is running weakly. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. 3.4 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, soybean oil was strong, and there is a strong expectation of a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Protein Meal**: During the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade disputes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of production cuts has caused fluctuations, and the futures price has rebounded. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Rubber**: Positive macro factors have driven up the rubber price. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Tight raw material supply supports the futures price. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend of the futures price remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Cotton**: The impact of macro factors has weakened, and cotton price trading has returned to fundamentals. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Sugar**: The marginal supply pressure has increased, and the sugar price is under downward pressure. Concerns include imports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Log**: The fundamentals have changed little, and it should be treated within a range. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [8].

截至8月5日，铁路95306平台上，多式联运"一单制"产品发运量累计达到10028标箱。自今年2月28日国铁集团与4家航运企业签 订多式联运"一单制"合作协议以来，多式联运"一单制""一次委托、一单到底、一箱到底、一次结算"的创新服务模式，已从试运阶 段进入常态化运营。25个铁路物流中心的60个铁水联运项目成功上线运营。 目前，铁水联运"一单制"业务已覆盖营口港、天津港、京唐港、日照港、钦州港等主要铁水联运通道起运港，常态化运营水运 航线超过200条。 据了解，国铁集团下一步将加快构建东北经营口港至华东华南、西北经天津港至沿海枢纽、山东经日照港至东南西南沿海等五 条核心铁水联运通道，推动铁路与航运衔接更加通畅，联运版图不断扩大，实现多式联运"一单制"业务持续增运上量，进一步助力 有效降低全社会物流成本。 央视网消息：记者从国铁集团了解到，铁路95306平台上，铁水联运"一单制"产品发运量已经突破一万标箱，助力有效降低全社 会物流成本。 ...

郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 集运指数（欧线）：基本面延续弱势，10 空单持 有，逢高酌情加空 2025 年 8 月 7 日 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2508 | 2,071.3 | -1.18% | 418 | 3,700 | -246 | 0.11 | 0.18 | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,420.1 | 0.64% | 48,555 | 54,361 | 2,253 | 0.89 | 0.59 | | | EC2512 | 1,751.4 | 4.12% | 10,672 | 9,581 | 1,373 | 1.11 | 0.34 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/8/4 | ...

早上好！先来看看美联储最新消息。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔.卡什卡利最新表示，美国经济增速正在放缓，可能使得短期内降息成为合适的政策选择。 当地时间周三(8月6日)，卡什卡利接受采访时说道："经济增速正在放缓。短期内，开始调整联邦基金利率可能是合适的。" 他补充道，关税仍是一个重大的不确定性，目前尚不清楚它们将对通胀产生何种影响，"我们还能等多久才能看清关税的效应？这正是我现在所忧 虑的"。 卡什卡利称，短期内，降息这一选项可能比干等关税明朗化要更好，即使之后可能要"朝反方向调整"，即加息。 他表示自己仍预计年底前将降息两次，但补充说，如果有迹象表明关税引发的通胀效应可能更持久，那么决策者可能会减少降息次数。 当天，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，考虑到劳动力市场放缓以及她评估认为关税对通胀仅构成短期威胁，她认为美联储将很快需要降息。"在没有关 税的情况下，通胀一直在逐步下降，随着经济增速放缓以及货币政策仍然具有抑制性，通胀应会继续下降。"她补充说，尽管关税将在短期内推高 通胀，但不太可能持续产生影响。与此同时，劳动力市场已经疲软。"我认为进一步的放缓将是令人担忧的，一旦劳动力市场出现动摇，它往往会 迅速而严重地下滑 ...