Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating. It is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December, with prices fluctuating in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Spot prices are stable, and the main contract has risen. Although new delivery brands are beneficial for increasing deliverable volume and warehouse receipts, considering weak demand and a large decline in production, polysilicon futures may still oscillate at a high level, and the spot is still under pressure [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly in the game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum oscillating in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - Market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend throughout the year, and a bullish view on tin prices is maintained [6]. Zinc - With the decline of TC, the supply pressure is relieved, and the short - term price has limited downward space. The export of refined zinc drives the spot to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term Shanghai zinc price trend may be stronger than that of London zinc, and the main contract should focus on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - Macro factors are temporarily stable. After the valuation repair of nickel prices, the price driving force weakens. In the medium term, the loose fundamentals restrict the upward space of prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Macro factors are temporarily stable, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is not smooth. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. Although the fundamentals have not changed much, the market is affected by news of slower - than - expected upstream resumption of production. In the short term, it may maintain a strong oscillation under the drive of capital sentiment [18]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: On December 11, the prices of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged compared with the previous day, while the basis of each variety declined [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The average prices of N - type re - feeding materials, N - type granular silicon, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm remained unchanged on December 11, while the average price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R increased by 4.24% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On December 12, the prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by 0.46% - 0.47% compared with the previous day, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in various regions also showed an upward trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: On December 12, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55% compared with the previous day, and the average price of alumina in various regions showed a downward trend [4]. - **Tin**: On December 12, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.04% compared with the previous day, and the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 66.67% [6]. - **Zinc**: On December 12, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.17% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss improved [8]. - **Copper**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper, and SMM wet - process copper increased by 1.05% - 1.22% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss worsened [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel decreased by 0.21% - 0.26% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss of futures worsened [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 12, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 12, the average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Price Differences - **Industrial Silicon**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. showed significant changes on December 11, with some increasing by more than 100% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The price differences between the main contract, current - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed on December 11, with the current - month - to - first - continuous increasing by 1166.67% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price differences between AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [4]. - **Tin**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [6]. - **Zinc**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [8]. - **Copper**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [10]. - **Nickel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [18]. Fundamental Data - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 11.17% month - on - month, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The outputs of organic silicon DMC and regenerative aluminum alloy increased, while the outputs of polysilicon and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In November, the polysilicon output decreased by 14.48% month - on - month, the import volume increased by 11.96%, and the export volume decreased by 27.99%. The silicon wafer output decreased by 10.35% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the output of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74% month - on - month, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06%, and the export volume increased by 31.49% [3]. - **Aluminum**: In November, the alumina output decreased by 4.44% month - on - month, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 3.50%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum import volume increased by 0.61%, and the export volume decreased by 15.18% [4]. - **Tin**: In October, the tin ore import volume increased by 33.49%, the SMM refined tin output increased by 53.09%, the refined tin import volume decreased by 58.55%, and the export volume decreased by 15.33% [6]. - **Zinc**: In November, the refined zinc output decreased by 3.56% month - on - month. In October, the refined zinc import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Copper**: In November, the electrolytic copper output increased by 1.05% month - on - month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume decreased by 15.61% [10]. - **Nickel**: In November, the Chinese refined nickel output decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the refined nickel import volume decreased by 65.66% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In November, the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.72%, and the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel increased by 0.36%. The stainless steel import volume increased by 3.18%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the lithium carbonate output increased by 3.35% month - on - month, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume increased by 21.86%, and the export volume increased by 63.05% [18]. Inventory Changes - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, the weekly social inventory increased by 0.54%, the daily warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 11.40%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.28% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, the silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 7.58% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08%, the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.28%, the daily inventory in Ningbo increased by 3.91%, and the daily inventory in Wuxi decreased by 28.57% [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.01%, the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.72%, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 0.15%, the alumina plant's in - house inventory increased by 1.72%, the alumina port inventory increased by 2.36%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.39% [4]. - **Tin**: The SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, the social inventory increased by 2.39%, the SHEF daily warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the LME daily inventory increased by 1.09% [6]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the LME inventory increased by 0.92% [8]. - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.58%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.42%, the COMEX inventory increased by 0.48%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased by 4.23%, the social inventory increased by 2.71%, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged, the LME inventory decreased by 0.09%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.69%, the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.08%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.20% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [18].

近日，由多家硅料龙头企业及中国光伏行业协会联合投资设立的北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司（简 称"光和谦成"）正式登记成立。该公司被视为多晶硅产能并购整合平台，其成立是光伏行业"反内卷"的 重要一步。 12月12日，上海证券报记者从光和谦成股东层面获悉，未来，该平台规划保留的硅料产能不会超过150 万吨。另外，光和谦成公司目前注册资本为30亿元，持股比例靠前的股东包括通威股份、协鑫科技、东 方希望、大全能源、新特能源等。有接近股东的知情人士介绍，光和谦成公司未来会进行增资，届时各 股东持股份额仍会有变动，而且，光和谦成公司股权份额可以在股东内部自由流动。 "光和谦成不存在实际控制方，这个公司本来就是处理资产的，不做经营用途。"该人士表示。 （文章来源：上海证券报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citigroup indicates that the Chinese polysilicon industry is driving consolidation, with Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. being established as a platform for capacity integration and acquisition [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has been formally registered and is viewed as a platform for polysilicon capacity integration [1] - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited holds approximately 16.79% of the joint venture, making it the second-largest shareholder [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Citigroup believes that successful capacity integration could lead to an increase in polysilicon prices, benefiting GCL-Poly through margin expansion [1] - Even at a 50% capacity utilization rate, GCL-Poly is expected to record profit growth [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Citigroup has assigned a "Buy/High Risk" rating to GCL-Poly, with a target price of HKD 1.72 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: There is a transformation in structural surplus, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthened [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With continuous inventory reduction and uncertain resumption of production of large factories, it will fluctuate at a high level [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in Xinjiang [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,870 yuan, down 1,220 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 55 yuan. The import profit of nickel plate was - 973 yuan, up 425 yuan from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [4][5] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 96,980 yuan, up 2,900 yuan from the previous day. The spot - 2601 was - 3,480 yuan, up - 2,100 yuan from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 93,559 yuan/ton, up 932 yuan/ton from the previous working day. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, an increase of 59 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 111,469 tons, a decrease of 2,133 tons from last week [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 8,285 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day; the PS2605 closing price was 55,765 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous day. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 56.1 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to a week ago [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Central Economic Work Conference determined the key tasks for next year's economic work, including promoting reform, building a unified national market, and deepening the reform of state - owned enterprises [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [13]

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8250 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton (-2.19%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2601 was 171,757 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 7780 lots, an increase of 252 lots from the previous day [2]. Supply - Side Information - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [2]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable for now, but it was expected to loosen in some regions due to the downward - trending prices of raw coal and coking coal. The average price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/ton, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1300 - 1650 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was about 1260 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/ton, and the average price of granular coal was about 1050 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - Side Information - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was also in this range, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. As the DMC market price stabilized, the purchasing sentiment of downstream customers became more rational. Due to the weak demand in the terminal market, it would take time for the price to be fully transmitted to the terminal [3]. Strategy - The spot price was affected by the futures market and showed a weak and volatile trend. The industrial silicon futures market declined significantly due to capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support. The industrial silicon market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there were policies to promote capacity exit, the market might rise as the current valuation was low. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and long positions could be considered when the price dropped significantly [4]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 56000 yuan/ton and closed at 55915 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 1.62% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 54959 lots (68874 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 116207 lots [5]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Information - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.10 (a 3.38% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 21.30GW (a 9.23% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 25800.00 tons (a 7.50% change), and the silicon wafer output was 11.95GW (a - 0.58% change). The estimated polysilicon output in December was 113500 tons, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia, and there were no major production cut plans in January [5][6]. Component Price Information - The mainstream transaction prices of components were as follows: PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, with a significant decline in consumption and high inventory pressure. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the implementation of production and sales restrictions. The market fluctuated greatly recently, and participants should pay attention to risk management. It was expected that the market would mainly fluctuate. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 57000 yuan/ton [8].

Report Date - The report is dated December 11, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased. The production in December is expected to remain flat month - on - month, but the weak terminal demand is gradually spreading upstream in the industrial chain. Downstream enterprises are reducing production, and the market has not yet entered the active destocking stage. The prices of silicon wafers and solar cells have been weak recently, and the industrial chain profits are concentrated in the silicon material segment. It is difficult to pass on price increases in silicon materials. With policy emphasis on stability and the lack of upward drivers from the fundamentals, the "stockpiling" platform has been established but no details are available, and the capital response has been tepid. The price has risen and then fallen, with an increase in net short positions during the day, and overall, it continues to fluctuate within a range [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract rose and then fell. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,915 yuan/ton, with a 1.62% increase, a trading volume of 116,207 lots, and an open interest of 54,959 lots, a net decrease of 13,915 lots. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 54,600 yuan/ton, with a 1.76% increase, a trading volume of 184,575 lots, and an open interest of 108,249 lots, a net increase of 2,717 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 increased by 1,861 lots, and the net short positions of the top 20 increased by 2,806 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat month - on - month [4] Future Outlook - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased. The production in December is expected to remain flat month - on - month, but the weak terminal demand is gradually spreading upstream in the industrial chain. Downstream enterprises are reducing production, and the market has not yet entered the active destocking stage. The prices of silicon wafers and solar cells have been weak recently, and the industrial chain profits are concentrated in the silicon material segment. It is difficult to pass on price increases in silicon materials. With policy emphasis on stability and the lack of upward drivers from the fundamentals, the "stockpiling" platform has been established but no details are available, and the capital response has been tepid. The price has risen and then fallen, with an increase in net short positions during the day, and overall, it continues to fluctuate within a range [4] 2. Market News - On December 10, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,430 lots, an increase of 620 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to relevant regulations, Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.'s "Jinnuo" brand and Xinjiang Eastern Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s "Eastern Hope" brand have been added as registered brands for polysilicon futures, effective from the date of the announcement [5] - There is news that the long - awaited polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has been established, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan and a founding date of December 9, 2025 [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the price - holding situation of industrial silicon plants [1]. - For polysilicon, with the details of the platform company's equity announced, the disk is recommended to go long on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market** - Si2601: The closing price was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1, 670 yuan from T - 5, and 1,040 yuan from T - 22. The trading volume was 252,510 lots, down 71,000 lots from T - 1. The open interest was 171,757 lots, down 13,514 lots from T - 1 [1]. - PS2601: The closing price was 55,915 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 116,207 lots, down 42,531 lots from T - 1. The open interest was 54,959 lots, down 13,915 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis and Price** - Industrial silicon: The spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +950 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from T - 1. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium (against N - type reinvestment) was - 3915 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan from T - 1. The N - type reinvestment polysilicon price was 52300 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Profit** - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 3019.5 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1. The profit of Yunnan new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 4131 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.8 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory was 18.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.29 million tons compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Other Products in the Industry** - Organic silicon: The DMC price was 13600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The DMC enterprise profit was 1801 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The ADC12 price was 21500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. The recycled aluminum enterprise profit was - 270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - A new platform company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has 10 shareholders, 9 of which are silicon - material production enterprises. Among them, Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s holding subsidiary holds 30.35% with a subscribed registered capital of 910.5 million yuan, and GCL Technology's subsidiary holds 16.79% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Views - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there were differences within the committee. The US faces challenges of rising prices and a cooling labor market. The market shows different trends for various commodities, with some in a state of shock, some with potential for short - term rebound, and others facing supply - demand imbalances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Gold and Silver - Gold prices were affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. The market showed certain price fluctuations and trading volume changes [14][18]. Copper - The decline of the US dollar supported copper prices. There were some impacts on supply from mining companies, and China's copper imports increased year - on - year [22][24]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell from a high level, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [25]. Lead - The reduction in inventory limited the decline of lead prices [28]. Tin - There were disturbances in tin supply [31]. Aluminum, Alumina and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, alumina had a slight rebound, and casting aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum faced obvious pressure at the upper level, while palladium fluctuated upward [39][41]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The structural surplus of nickel changed, but the game contradictions remained unchanged. The supply and demand of stainless steel continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The news of large - scale production resumption was repeated, and the price was in a high - level shock [48]. 3.2 Industrial Minerals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, the price was affected by factors such as inventory and cost. The details of the equity of the polysilicon platform company were announced, and the market suggested buying on dips [51][53]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space of iron ore was limited, and the valuation was high [54]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Affected by the sentiment of the real estate sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices were in a low - level shock [57][60]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon were in a wide - range shock [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices were in a wide - range shock [65]. Logs - Log prices were in a low - level shock [69]. 3.3 Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - PX was in a high - level shock market with cost support. PTA had cost support and was suitable for positive spread trading. MEG's device production cut scale expanded, and the downward space was limited [73][81]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber was in a shock operation, and synthetic rubber was in a range operation [84][87]. Asphalt - Due to geopolitical factors, asphalt had a phased slight rebound [91]. Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and Polypropylene (PP) - LLDPE prices fell unilaterally, and the basis weakened again. PP faced upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials was inverted [103][105]. Caustic Soda - It was not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda, as it faced high - production and high - inventory situations [108][109]. Pulp - Pulp prices were in a shock - upward trend. Although there was no significant change in the supply - demand fundamentals, the market was affected by factors such as low - valuation capital speculation [9][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable, but the market faced problems of weak demand and high inventory [117][118]. Methanol - Methanol prices were under pressure. In the short term, it was in a weak operation, and in the medium - term, the high - supply pressure was the main contradiction [120][123]. Urea - Urea prices were in a shock operation. The demand side improved stage by stage, and the price was supported by the reduction of inventory, but there was also policy pressure [125][128]. Styrene - Styrene was in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market was in a bottom - shock state, and the supply pressure of styrene was not large [129][130]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little, with stable prices and weak downstream demand [132]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Propylene - LPG prices had wide - range fluctuations affected by cost factors. Propylene supply had an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force was limited [135][136]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC prices were in a low - level shock. The high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change in the short term [144][145]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the center of the low - sulfur fuel oil market shifted downward at night [147]. 3.4 Shipping - The PA alliance's performance exceeded expectations, driving the sentiment of the container freight index (European line) to improve. The 2602 contract was in a shock market in the medium - term, and it was advisable to short the 2604 contract on rallies [149][161]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip faced medium - term pressure, and it was advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [163][164]. Offset Printing Paper - It was advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable prices and weak market demand [166][167]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a short - term shock, with inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand in the short term, but the supply was expected to shrink in the future [171][172]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil was expected to have a short - term rebound after the release of negative factors. Soybean oil fluctuated mainly due to insufficient driving force from US soybeans [174][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal might follow the rebound of US soybeans. Soybean prices were in a shock [180][183]. Corn - Corn prices were in a shock operation, with price changes in different regions [184][185]. Sugar - Sugar prices were in a low - level shock, with different production and consumption situations in domestic and international markets [190][193]. Cotton - Cotton prices were in a shock - upward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [195][197]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were in a shock [199]. Hogs - The market had already priced in the Winter Solstice expectation in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [201][202]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the peanut spot market, with stable prices in most regions and small - scale price fluctuations in some areas [205][206].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Short - term gold price remains in a volatile pattern, silver's upward trend is expected to slow down, and attention should be paid to correction risks. [13][14] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar index is expected to weaken. [19] - **US Stock Index Futures**: US stocks are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the subsequent release of economic data. [21] - **Stock Index Futures**: Allocate long positions in stock indices evenly. [24] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on dips. [28] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: If the South American soybean production is worry - free, the May contract should be considered for shorting on rallies. Also, continue to pay attention to China's purchase progress of US soybeans and the dynamics of state reserves. [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: After the MPOB report is released, the price of palm oil futures drops significantly and then stabilizes and rebounds. It is expected that the price may be supported to some extent. After waiting for the demand to pick up and the signal of production reduction, long positions in the 05 contract can be considered. [33] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: It is still recommended to view the steel price from a volatile perspective. [36] - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The overall iron ore price is expected to continue its weak trend. The fundamental situation is seasonally weak. [37] - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: The steam coal price is expected to continue to fall until mid - to - late January. [38] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - level and changes in downstream orders. [43] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina)**: It is recommended to wait and see. [46] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The spot price of polysilicon is expected to be difficult to fall further. In futures, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. In options, pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options. [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is not optimistic. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rallies after the price rebounds. [52] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: In the short term, the futures price may be under pressure. In the medium - and long - term, the strategy of going long on corrections can be adopted. [53] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for macro - level guidance. In the medium - term, the impact of Indonesia's contraction on nickel ore needs to be evaluated. [56] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, arbitrage trading, and domestic - foreign trading. [57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: In terms of single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage trading, the long - spread position can be held. For domestic - foreign trading, wait and see. [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: The tin price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on corrections, and beware of the risk of price decline. [61] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: It will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [64] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: If there is a new round of panic selling in pure benzene and styrene due to factors such as full storage, it may be an opportunity to lightly go long on far - month contracts on dips. [65] - **Energy Chemicals (LLDPE)**: It is expected that the futures price still has room to fall, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Methanol)**: There is not much contradiction in the fundamentals currently, and the long - spread strategy is more cost - effective. [70] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: The asphalt market as a whole continues to be weak, and wait for more winter storage policies to be released. [72] - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: In the medium - term, a bearish view should be taken on soda ash, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. [74] - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The fundamental situation of float glass is still in excess. In the medium - term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be adopted. [75] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: It is not recommended to chase the high. Short - selling should wait for the signal that the spot price fails to meet expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [76] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. However, the room for interest rate cuts in 2026 is limited, and the Fed's balance sheet has not expanded rapidly, so the short - term positive impact on the gold price is limited. [13] - The US dollar index weakens due to the Fed's interest rate cut and internal differences, which increases market risk appetite. [17][18] - The US stock market may face reduced support from interest rate cut trading in the future, and market games will increase. However, it is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger at the end of the year. [20][21] - China's inflation in November shows a K - shaped divergence, with CPI rising and PPI falling. More incremental policies are needed to boost prices in the future. [23] - The inflation in the domestic bond market is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. After a sharp decline, the odds of going long on TL have increased significantly. [27] - The supply and demand of various commodities are different. For example, the supply of steam coal is excessive and the price is expected to fall; the supply of palm oil is under pressure, but there may be support in the future; the supply of polysilicon is facing challenges, but the price may be difficult to fall further. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate target range to 3.5% - 3.75% and will start buying Treasury bills on December 12. The gold price fluctuated and closed higher, but the short - term positive impact is limited. The internal differences of the Fed are increasing, and the subsequent policy game will increase. [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points with internal differences, leading to an increase in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar. [17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and started buying short - term Treasury bonds. Powell's view on the employment market is more cautious. The future room for interest rate cuts is reduced, and the support for the stock market from interest rate cut trading may decrease. [20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. China's inflation in November shows a K - shaped divergence, and more policies are needed to boost prices. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices. [22][23][24] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's CPI and PPI in November show a K - shaped divergence. The central bank carried out 1898 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1105 billion yuan. After a sharp decline, the odds of going long on TL have increased significantly. [25][27][28] Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US soybean crushing volume in October was much higher than that in September and the same period last year. There are many market news, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal has widened significantly. If the South American soybean production is worry - free, the May contract should be considered for shorting on rallies. [29][30] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 decreased by 10.31% month - on - month. In November, the inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month, reaching a high level in recent years. After the MPOB report is released, the price of palm oil futures drops significantly and then stabilizes and rebounds. [31][32][33] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars in December 1 - 7 decreased compared with the same period last year. The steel price has rebounded, mainly due to the expectation of real - estate policies. It is still recommended to view the steel price from a volatile perspective. [34][35][36] 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - MinRes' Lamb Creek project is under construction. The iron ore price is expected to continue its weak trend. The fundamental situation is seasonally weak, and the port inventory is still at a high level. [37] 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the North Port market on December 10 was weak. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will continue to fall until mid - to - late January. [38] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of December 2, Brazil's cotton planting progress was 5.3%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA's December report slightly adjusted the supply - demand balance sheets of US and global cotton. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile, and it is cautiously optimistic in the long term. [39][41][43] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia. The alumina price in the spot market declined, and the new production capacity is about to be put into operation, causing the futures price to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [44][45][46] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The shareholder list of the polysilicon platform company was disclosed. The polysilicon industry inventory continues to accumulate, but the spot price may be difficult to fall further. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in futures and selling out - of - the - money put options in options. [47][48][49] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A silicon enterprise's industrial silicon device has potential safety hazards. The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is not optimistic. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rallies after the price rebounds. [50][51][52] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Samsung SDI signed a battery supply agreement. The short - term futures price may be under pressure, and the strategy of going long on corrections can be adopted in the medium - and long - term. [53] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia issued a new regulation on fines for illegal mining in forest areas. The nickel - iron production in China and Indonesia in November remained at a high level. In the short term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for macro - level guidance. [54][55][56] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount. The LME inventory decreased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased marginally. The lead price is expected to be mainly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see in all aspects. [57] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Chile's zinc concentrate exports from January to October decreased by 17.8% year - on - year, and Peru's exports in September decreased by 22% month - on - month. The zinc price is expected to face some upper - level pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and domestic - foreign trading, and hold long - spread positions for arbitrage trading. [58][59] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin 0 - 3 spread was at a premium. The LME inventory increased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The tin market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on corrections and beware of risks. [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but the gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The oil price fluctuated and rose. It will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device was put into operation. The pure benzene and styrene markets are in a consolidation state. If there is a new round of panic selling in pure benzene and styrene due to factors such as full storage, it may be an opportunity to lightly go long on far - month contracts on dips. [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises increased. The futures price is expected to fall further, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [66][67][68] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased. The short - term methanol futures price is expected to remain volatile. The long - spread strategy is more cost - effective. [69][70] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased. The asphalt market is weak, and wait for more winter storage policies to be released. [71][72] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - A soda ash device was reduced in production. The soda ash futures price is under pressure due to factors such as cost reduction and increased production capacity. In the medium - term, a bearish view should be taken, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. [73][74] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The float glass market is in excess supply, and in the medium - term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be adopted. [75] 2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM adjusted the D&D fees. The container freight rate 02 contract has rebounded, but there is a lack of effective positive drivers. It is not recommended to chase the high, and short - selling should wait for the signal that the spot price fails to meet expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [76]