新华财经北京8月13日电据中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会消息，本周多晶硅n型复投料成交价格区间为 4.5-4.9万元／吨，成交均价为4.74万元／吨，周环比上涨0.42%。n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为4.4-4.5万元 ／吨，成交均价为4.45万元／吨，周环比上涨0.45%。 本周多晶硅成交量环比略有减少，但签单企业数量增至6家，其中部分企业成交价格维持不变，其余企 业价格上调1元／公斤，整体均价小幅上涨。多晶硅价格维持涨势的主要原因在于：7月份多晶硅价格调 至成本线上以来，头部企业签单量相对较大，去库程度明显，个别企业甚至清库，无余量可签，故本周 头部企业成交价整体持稳，个别订单小幅上调。此外，头部企业签单饱和后，市场需求余量转至其他硅 料企业，而中部企业相对较高的成本同样对本周整体价格形成支撑。 本周在产多晶硅企业数量维持在9家，按当前排产计划，8月份国内多晶硅产量预计在12.5万吨，9月份 部分复产产线继续放量，国内产量或将继续增至14万吨左右，而同期硅片产出基本持稳，多晶硅库存将 在高位基础上累增超过5万吨，市场供需失衡的困局再次加码。为缓解供需压力，部分硅料企业正计划 协同限产。若限产落实到位，9月份产出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silicon industry is experiencing a slight increase in the prices of polysilicon n-type raw materials and n-type granular silicon, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] Price Summary - The transaction price range for polysilicon n-type raw materials is between 45,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 47,400 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 44,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 44,500 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.45% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the price of polysilicon is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the average price of n-type re-investment material at 47,400 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [1][2] - The transaction volume of polysilicon has slightly decreased week-on-week, but the number of signing companies has increased to six, with some companies maintaining prices while others raised prices by 1 RMB/kg [1] - The main reason for the price increase is attributed to the significant signing volume from leading companies since July, leading to a noticeable reduction in inventory levels [1][2] Group 2 - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected domestic production of 125,000 tons in August and a potential increase to around 140,000 tons in September [1] - The market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with polysilicon inventory expected to increase by over 50,000 tons, prompting some companies to consider coordinated production cuts to alleviate pressure [1] - The current market pricing is primarily supported by costs, with the prevailing signing model being dual distribution or high-cost performance procurement, indicating that prices are nearing a temporary peak [2]

本周多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 4.5-4.9 万元 / 吨，成交均价为 4.74 万元 / 吨，周环比上涨 0.42% 。 n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 4.4-4.5 万元 / 吨，成交均价为 4.45 万元 / 吨，周环比上涨 0.45% 。 本周多晶硅成交量环比略有减少，但签单企业数量增至 6 家，其中部分企业成交价 格维持不变，其余企业价格上调 1 元 / 公斤，整体均价小幅上涨。 多晶硅价格维持涨 势的主要原因在于： 7 月份多晶硅价格调至成本线上以来， 头部企业签单量相对较 大，去库程度明显，个别企业甚至清库，无余量可签，故本周头部企业成交价整体持 稳，个别订单小幅上调。此外，头部企业签单饱和后，市场需求余量转至其他硅料企 业，而中部企业相对较高的成本同样对本周整体价格形成支撑。 本周在产多晶硅企业数量维持在 9 家，按当前排产计划， 8 月份国内多晶硅产量预 计在 12.5 万吨， 9 月份部分复产产线继续放量，国内产量或将继续增至 14 万吨左右， 而同期硅片产出基本持稳，多晶硅库存将在高位基础上累增超过 5 万吨，市场供需失 衡的困局再次加码。为缓解供需压力，部分硅料企业正计划协同限 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Supply is increasing as some polysilicon enterprises that previously cut production or shut down due to losses or equipment maintenance are resuming production with improved market sentiment and "anti - involution" policies. Meanwhile, demand is weakening as downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price hikes, the overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has slightly decreased, and component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing polysilicon to control costs. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust this week, with prices likely to show a volatile trend as the upside is limited by downstream acceptance, and there will be no significant short - term decline [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon is 51,290 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan; the main contract position is 132,463 lots, down 3,592 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,355 yuan, up 550 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,690 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 4,290 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the spot price is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,113 tons, up 320 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece; the photovoltaic industry comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2]. Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to lithium industry chain enterprises to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation, adhere to the principle of fair market competition, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity. In the polysilicon sector, some enterprises that previously cut production or shut down are resuming production as market sentiment improves and "anti - involution" policies are advanced [2]. Key Views - Supply is increasing as some polysilicon enterprises resume production, while demand is weakening as downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price hikes, the silicon wafer industry's operating rate decreases, and component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing polysilicon. The polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust this week, with prices likely to be volatile [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend, with the PS2509 closing price at 52,985 yuan/ton, a gain of 6.34%. The market is currently in a post - rally consolidation phase, and the supply - demand contradiction of polysilicon is not intensified. The fundamentals, though not the short - term dominant factor, restrict the price increase. The supply in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, meeting about 56.82GW of downstream demand, while the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to around 52GW, keeping the supply - demand in a loose pattern. The average price of spot N - grade re - feed material is 47,200 yuan/ton. The price increase of silicon materials has not been transmitted to components and the end - market. The futures and spot prices are rigidly supported by policies and are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range volatile operation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon contract PS2509 closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, up 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4]. - **Outlook**: The commodity market is in a post - rally consolidation. The supply - demand of polysilicon is in a loose pattern. In August, the polysilicon production schedule increased to 125,000 tons, meeting about 56.82GW of demand, while the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to around 52GW. The price of silicon materials has not been transmitted downstream. The prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range volatile operation [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,940 lots, a net increase of 240 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW [5]. - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the futures market trend is weakening. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The influence of sentiment on the futures market is still significant, and prices will remain volatile. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short - term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [10]. - In the long - term, the prices of glass and soda ash are affected by the "anti - involution" logic, with their price centers expected to gradually rise, but their upside potential is limited due to weak demand [18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.246%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,197 tons, and the position decreased by 7,237 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.548%), with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8,925 tons and the position increasing by 6,551 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by production restriction news, the cost side price rose, driving up the finished product price. The export volume declined slightly this week. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with significant inventory accumulation. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+12.00), with a position increase of 51,084 lots to 443,800 lots. The weighted position was 940,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.74 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.27% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data weakened slightly. The supply pressure is not significant, and demand support still exists [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.16% at 6,110 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.17% at 5,820 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon has not changed. Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may face weakening marginal demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and relevant policies [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, down 1.78% (-160). The spot price remained flat. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, down 2.24% (-1,185). The spot price remained flat. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe and Central China decreased. The national inventory increased by 3.95% month - on - month. The market sentiment has cooled down. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, it depends on policies and demand [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory increased by 0.60%. The downstream is on the sidelines. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upside is limited [19].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has declined and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure above the market, but recently the bullish sentiment has resurfaced, and it is expected that the silicon price may maintain a high - level and strong consolidation. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, and although the sentiment has faded recently, it still fluctuates, with prices remaining high and volatile, requiring cautious operation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Spot Price**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in different regions (East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, 9,300 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, 9,250 yuan/ton, and 8,950 yuan/ton respectively; the average price of oxygen - blown 553 in different regions remained unchanged; the average price of 421 in different regions also remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 8,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78% from the previous day [1] - **Polysilicon Spot Price**: N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg, 47 yuan/kg, 45 yuan/kg, and 44.5 yuan/kg respectively [1] - **Polysilicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 51,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous day [1] - **Silicon Wafer Price**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.55 yuan/piece, 1.35 yuan/piece, and 1.20 yuan/piece respectively [1] - **Battery Chip Price**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery chips M10 - 182mm remained unchanged at 0.27 yuan/watt [1] - **Component Price**: The prices of single - sided and double - sided single - crystal PERC components of different specifications remained unchanged [1] - **Organic Silicon Price**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, 12,750 yuan/ton, and 14,100 yuan/ton respectively [1] News and Information - Yantai Huaxing Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. was established, jointly held by Xingfa Group and Wanhua Chemical, marking the deepening of their strategic cooperation in the silicon materials field [1] - Shifang Baichuan Xinyong New Energy Co., Ltd. is promoting its high - efficiency perovskite solar cell production project, planning to build two pilot production lines, with a design annual output of 1.4GW of high - efficiency silicon solar cells and an expansion of perovskite tandem solar cell production capacity to 200MW/year [1] Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In addition, the southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments; in the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply, but recently the monomer plants have recovered, increasing market supply pressure and potentially pressuring prices again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month - on - month [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the polysilicon market, highlighting the significant price increases in polysilicon futures and the implications for supply and demand dynamics in the industry [4][12][13]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures have demonstrated their price discovery function, serving as an important indicator of market expectations amid policy uncertainties [4]. - The price of polysilicon futures surged, with the main contract settling at 52,470 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, marking a more than 60% increase since early July [13]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to a focus on controlling low-priced products and consolidating production capacity within the polysilicon sector [7][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current supply-demand imbalance in polysilicon is becoming evident, with sellers raising prices to 50-52 yuan/kg, while downstream demand remains weak despite some marginal recovery [19]. - The increase in polysilicon prices is putting pressure on the profitability of downstream components, with costs rising approximately 0.02 yuan/W due to higher polysilicon prices [23]. - If the downstream prices do not rise in tandem with polysilicon prices, there is a risk of reduced demand as high costs may lead to production cuts [31]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policy aims to stabilize the market by preventing below-cost pricing and promoting the consolidation of excess capacity in the polysilicon industry [13][14]. - Successful implementation of the policy could lead to a new equilibrium where polysilicon prices reflect production costs, consolidation costs, and reasonable profit margins, estimated to be between 56,000 and 60,000 yuan/ton [37]. - The market is currently trading on expectations of policy success, with futures prices aligning with anticipated post-policy price levels, indicating that market expectations may have peaked [35][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Supply is increasing while demand is weakening, so the polysilicon market is expected to continue adjusting this week. Although prices are supported by costs and policies, the upside is limited by downstream acceptance, and prices are likely to show a volatile trend. Operational advice is to wait and see or arrange put options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 51,800 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 136,055 lots, down 3,684 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was -2,905 yuan, up 315 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 42,960 yuan/ton, down 1,025 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon was -5,985 yuan/ton, down 2,195 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.3 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars. The weekly photovoltaic industry composite price index (SPI) for polysilicon was 27.86, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that by 2025, the cumulative decommissioned photovoltaic modules in the country will reach about 9GW, and the decommissioned modules in that year will exceed 2.7GW, equivalent to 210,000 - 270,000 tons of waste. The Photovoltaic Recycling Industry Development Cooperation Center of the Photovoltaic Special Committee of the China Green Supply Chain Alliance predicted that by 2030, the cumulative decommissioned scale of photovoltaic modules in the country will reach 1 million tons, and by 2040, it will reach 12 million tons [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)". In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, some polysilicon enterprises that previously reduced or suspended production due to losses or equipment maintenance are more motivated to resume production as the market sentiment improves and the policy - end "anti - involution" measures are promoted. The resumption plans of individual enterprises in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are gradually being implemented [2]. 3.3 Key Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply Side**: Some polysilicon enterprises are resuming production, increasing supply [2]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price increases. Some small and medium - sized battery enterprises have weak procurement willingness due to cost pressure, which limits the further growth of demand in the silicon wafer segment. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has decreased slightly, weakening the demand support for polysilicon. Some mainstream - specification component prices have been lowered, indicating that the terminal market has low acceptance of high - price components. Component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing upstream polysilicon to control costs, resulting in a bottleneck in the growth of polysilicon demand [2].