行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price has a slight increase, and after the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry - season, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and inventory accumulation slows down. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies pushing for capacity exit, the futures price may rise. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumption performance. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Topic Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9365 yuan/ton and closed at 9075 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.37% from the previous settlement. The 2511 main contract held 273978 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43297, a decrease of 115 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 54.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons from last week. The social general warehouse inventory was 12.9 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 41.9 tons, unchanged from last week [1]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 4.51 tons, a sharp decrease of 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 60.67 tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 0.86 tons, a decrease of 67% year - on - year [2]. - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC continued to rise, with the current market quotation ranging from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 850 yuan/ton or 6.9% from last week's average price. In October 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxanes from China was 4.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, buy on dips [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. It opened at 54500 yuan/ton and closed at 52450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 134292 positions, and the trading volume was 304835 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10, a change of 1.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW, a change of 1.63% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 27100.00 tons, a change of 1.11% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a change of - 2.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: Silicon wafer prices fell due to poor order demand. The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece. The prices of various types of battery cells and components remained stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 and 55,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

Report Overview - Date: November 21, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures Core Views - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, oscillating [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Weak market conditions are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The inventory reduction speed is slowing down, and a cooling market sentiment may lead to a price correction [2][10]. - Industrial Silicon: The market shows a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][14]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115,380 yuan, down 270 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 154,598 lots, with a decrease of 40,178 lots from the previous day. Other data such as import nickel prices, nickel ore prices, and stainless - steel product prices also showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Issues include the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, China's suspension of non - official subsidies for Russian copper and nickel imports, sanctions on Indonesian mining companies, new regulations on Indonesian mining business plans, potential US tariffs on China, and Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses [5][6][7]. - **Trend Strength**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 98,980 yuan, down 320 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,595,646 lots, a decrease of 171,782 lots from the previous day. Other data related to the lithium carbonate market, including spot prices, raw material prices, and downstream product prices, all had corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 2563 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. This week, the lithium carbonate output increased by 585 tons, and the industry inventory decreased by 2052 tons [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 9075 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 574,345 lots, a decrease of 181,387 lots from the previous day. Data such as prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and their related products also showed different trends [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 18, a 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was completed and put into operation, with a total investment of about 5 billion yuan and an average annual power generation of about 3.2 billion kWh [14][16]. - **Trend Strength**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Market sentiment is cautious, with copper prices oscillating. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract is expected to range between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Follow demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Zinc - The fundamentals offer limited support for continuous upward movement of SHFE zinc, which is likely to oscillate in the short term. The main contract is expected to range between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Look out for demand improvement and non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [3]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains in a supply - demand surplus, with prices likely to remain weak. The main contract is expected to range between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum is caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, with the medium - term supply expected to be tight [4]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [6]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will stay firm, supported by costs. The main contract is expected to range between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Track scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory changes [9]. Nickel - The nickel market faces macro pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to range between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian policies [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has insufficient macro - level drivers and weak demand. The supply pressure remains. The main contract is expected to range between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Monitor steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows strong short - term momentum. The market may continue to be strong, followed by wide - range oscillations. Be cautious when chasing long positions at current levels [15]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline. Monitor inventory pressure, spot support, and demand orders [16]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The refined - scrap spread increased by 8.98% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Alumina prices in different regions were mostly stable [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 291,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 21,450 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread in different regions decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 117,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased to 897 yuan/nickel point [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Imports in September were 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained at 12,700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices such as nickel ore and chromium iron decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Indonesia's production was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose to 88,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.72%. The lithium ore price also increased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [15]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while futures prices rose to 54,625 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts increased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. Monthly production was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Industrial silicon spot prices were unchanged, while futures prices rose to 9,390 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The national开工率 was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by emotions and news, with significant price fluctuations. The industrial silicon market may see an improved supply - demand pattern after southwest production cuts, while the polysilicon market has large inventory pressure and is affected by policies and weak reality [3][7] - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the price may rise. For polysilicon, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to be volatile [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8985 yuan/ton and closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton (4.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 306,669 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,412 lots, up 10 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. Other downstream product prices also rose, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in a week [2] Strategy - The spot price is stable with some increases. After southwest production cuts, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The current industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity emotions and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and consider going long on dry - season contracts at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures oscillated strongly, opening at 52,300 yuan/ton and closing at 54,625 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,317 lots, and the trading volume was 361,538 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% month - on - month to 26.70, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% month - on - month to 18.42GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, down 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, down 2.45% month - on - month [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan), N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan). The polysilicon production in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the production in November in the southwest region was expected to decline [6] - The prices of battery cells and components remained relatively stable [6] Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现：多晶硅主力合约价格低开后震荡运行，PS2601 合约收盘价 52210 元/ 吨，跌幅 1.67%，成交量 173704 手，持仓量 137091 手，净增 848 手。 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 能源化工研究团队 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Today, the price of polysilicon started to rise again due to the resonance of the increase in industrial silicon price and power cost, but the increase was significantly lower than that of industrial silicon. It is expected that the upward momentum will be limited in the future, and attention should be paid to the resistance level above 56,000 yuan/ton [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 54,625 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2,415 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract was 134,317 lots, with a week-on-week decrease of 2,774 lots; the basis between the December and January contracts of polysilicon was 2,160 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1,240 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 45,235 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2,005 yuan/ton [3] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 52,300 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the average price of N-type silicon wafers (210R) was 1.27 yuan/piece, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece; the weekly average price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, with no week-on-week change; the basis of polysilicon was -355 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1,390 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,390 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,409.29 tons; the import volume of industrial silicon was 1,939.85 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 602.27 tons; the output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,000 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon was 1,292 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.92 US dollars/kg, with no week-on-week change; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China was 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 270 US dollars/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 70,873,000 kilowatts, with a month-on-month increase of 1,016,000 kilowatts; the weekly average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, with no week-on-week change; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 32.82, with no week-on-week change; the daily average price of solar cells was 0.82 yuan/watt, with a week-on-week increase of 0.01 yuan/watt; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 129,531,200 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules was 14,733,700 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,706,500 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.3 US dollars/piece, with a month-on-month increase of 0.06 US dollars/piece [3] Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting attended by the heads of many listed companies. The meeting reached a unified goal: to reduce the industry's operating rate by 30% starting in early December, and to raise the price target of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton and strive to achieve it within half a month. In terms of polysilicon, on the supply side, as the southwest region gradually enters the dry season, power supply is tight and costs have risen significantly. Polysilicon producers in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places are facing greater cost pressures, and some enterprises have planned to reduce their operating rates. In the northwest regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, with abundant coal resources, the power cost is relatively stable, and the polysilicon production capacity is operating smoothly. On the demand side, the demand in the downstream cell and module markets is weak, and the inventory pressure of silicon wafer enterprises has increased. They have to reduce production to ease the supply-demand contradiction. The slowdown in terminal market demand and the continuous decline in photovoltaic product prices have compressed corporate profit margins and dampened production enthusiasm [3]