锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 唐文豪（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03152608 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：震荡偏强 强弱分析：偏强 价格区间：345000-375000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 02-02 02-18 03-03 03-14 03-25 04-07 04-18 04-29 05-13 05-24 06-06 06-17 06-30 07-11 07-22 08-02 08-13 08-25 09-05 09-16 09-27 10-15 10-27 11-07 11-18 11-29 12-10 12-22 吨 SMM社会库存 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report From the perspective of the industrial situation, the visible inventory of zinc ore has increased slightly, the imported TC of zinc concentrate has declined again, the zinc smelting profit has slowly increased with the rise of zinc price, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has slightly increased. There has been no obvious improvement in the industrial situation. From the perspective of sector sentiment, the non - farm payrolls data in December fell short of expectations. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has broken through the lowest level since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007. Since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has broken through the lowest level since 2013. The zinc price still has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected that the zinc price will mainly fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.01% at 24,007 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 218,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S fell 17.5 to $3,152.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 232,800 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,030 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 90 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of 20 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 20 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 70 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 113,400 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with January 5. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 108,000 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,200 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was - $42.57/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $9.25/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.094, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,887.04 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 38 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 266,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 52.98%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 363,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.73%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.51%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis text is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In December 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 287,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of - 7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore output was 3,669,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 0.86%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 519,000 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 14.1% and a month - on - month change of 52.3%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,859,100 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 34.2%. In November 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 545,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.8% and a month - on - month change of 12.6%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5,568,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 266,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ingot output was 552,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot output was 6,834,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 160.1% and a month - on - month change of - 275.2%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 257,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 41.5%. In November 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 572,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.4% and a month - on - month change of - 9.2%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 6,539,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.9% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rate and Zinc Purchasing Volume**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 52.98%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 363,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.73%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.51%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [39]. - **Apparent Demand for Zinc Ingots**: In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 603,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6,407,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.8% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Zinc Ingot Inventory**: The report shows various inventory data of zinc ingots, including upstream finished - product factory inventory, downstream raw - material inventory, in - transit inventory, bonded - area inventory, social inventory, and total inventory, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. - **Zinc Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 31,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 131,900 tons. In October 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 78,000 tons [52][55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis Spreads**: **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 113,400 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with January 5. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,900 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 108,000 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,200 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was - $42.57/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $9.25/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.094, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,887.04 yuan/ton [60][63][66]. - **Position and Price Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Zinc decreased, the net long position of investment funds in LME Zinc decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bearish [69].

Report's Investment Ratings for Different Metals - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as holding certain option strategies, participating in hedging, and being cautious in trading [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - The Shanghai copper market reduced positions and fluctuated, recovering intraday losses. The impact of the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs on copper is limited. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum increased positions and rose. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China narrowed. The short - term rise is driven by funds, deviating from the fundamentals. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan, and aluminum plants can consider selling hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and the spot price is under pressure [3] Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is light. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of pre - consuming, and the demand may not be weak in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - The SMM 1 aluminum has a discount to the near - month contract. The import window is open, and the overseas surplus can be transmitted to the domestic market. The recycled aluminum production has increased after profit repair. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has improved. The stainless steel inventory has decreased. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions and traded around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot price has support at the integer - level high. The option strategy of selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be held until maturity [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price is oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has slightly improved. The price center is slowly rising, and the mine - end price remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and closed slightly down. The supply side has production cuts, and the demand side has reduced demand. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after the limit - down. The market's expectation for capacity clearance has changed. The supply is still high, and the price is seeking cost support [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Furong Technology (603327.SH), is investing 563.85 million yuan to build a green low-carbon aluminum alloy new materials project in Chengdu, Sichuan, to align with national carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and enhance its market competitiveness and sustainable operational capacity [1] Investment Details - The investment will fund the construction of two workshop buildings and the installation of a 25-ton electric melting casting production line and four electric extrusion production lines [1] - The project aims to produce 40,000 tons of aluminum alloy round ingots and 24,100 tons of aluminum alloy new materials annually, primarily for consumer electronics such as tablets and laptops [1] Upgrades and Enhancements - The company plans to convert the heating of three existing extrusion production lines from gas to electric and upgrade one extrusion line's quenching system [1] - Additionally, the project will include the installation of two fully automatic sawing and inspection lines for 3C aluminum materials and three high-precision sawing machines for 3C aluminum parts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Furong Technology (603327.SH), is investing 564 million yuan to build a green low-carbon aluminum alloy new materials project in Chengdu, Sichuan, in response to national carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, aiming to enhance its market competitiveness and sustainable operational capacity [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The investment will fund the construction of two workshops and the installation of a 25-ton electric melting casting production line and four electric extrusion production lines [1] - The project will produce 40,000 tons of aluminum alloy round ingots and 24,100 tons of aluminum alloy new materials annually, primarily for consumer electronics such as tablets and laptops [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Upgrades - The project includes the establishment of supporting systems such as power supply, circulating water, gas supply, environmental protection facilities, and related auxiliary facilities [1] - Existing gas heating on three extrusion production lines will be converted to electric heating, and one extrusion production line will undergo upgrades to its quenching system [1] - Additionally, two fully automatic cutting and inspection lines for 3C aluminum materials and three high-precision sawing machines for 3C aluminum parts will be added [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest 564 million yuan in a green low-carbon aluminum alloy new materials project in Chongzhou City, aiming to respond to carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, promote green transformation and upgrading of the industry, meet customer carbon reduction requirements, and consolidate market competitive advantages [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project includes the construction of two workshop buildings, equipped with electric melting and extrusion production lines and supporting facilities [1] - The main products will be aluminum alloy round ingots and new aluminum alloy materials [1] - The project has completed preliminary project filing and is expected to commence construction on March 20, 2026, with a construction period of 15 months [1] Group 2: Strategic Alignment and Impact - The project aligns with the company's overall development strategy and is expected to have a positive impact on the company's operations once completed [1] - The investment aims to enhance the company's market position in response to increasing demand for low-carbon solutions [1] Group 3: Risks - The project faces market risks, financial risks, and implementation risks [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bearish trend in the zinc market, with domestic spot zinc prices declining amid increased selling pressure and macroeconomic concerns [1][2][3] - The Shanghai zinc futures contract (2602) opened at 23,960 CNY/ton, reached a high of 24,045 CNY/ton, and closed at 23,970 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 75 CNY and a drop of 0.31% [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract decreased by 8,584 hands to 143,227 hands, while open interest fell by 7,144 hands to 76,607 hands [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows a rise in bearish sentiment, with the labor market indicators in the U.S. suggesting a cooling trend, including an increase in initial jobless claims to 208,000 and a significant rise in continuing claims to 1.914 million [2] - Domestic smelters are expected to resume production, but demand remains weak, leading to a situation where zinc prices have not yet reached the psychological price levels of downstream enterprises [3] - The overall trading activity in the zinc market is subdued, with downstream buyers only purchasing based on immediate needs, resulting in a slight oversupply situation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined. The US initial jobless claims were 208,000, slightly higher than the previous value but still below market expectations, indicating a stable labor - market. The Fed's report shows that consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.4%. There is a large divergence among Fed officials, making the interest - rate cut expectation at the end - of - month Fed meeting unclear. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,150 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,255 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 12,211 tons. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market is in the inventory accumulation stage. An orderly adjustment is beneficial for future market trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. Ore reserves are high, and the short - term premium purchasing sentiment of alumina plants is low. The possibility of large - scale alumina plant overhauls in the new quarter is not high. The news of the NDRC's encouragement of industrial restructuring has reduced the downward pressure on the market, and the far - month contracts are expected to maintain a premium. After a significant rebound, the confidence of long - positions has weakened, and there is new resistance to further price increases. Attention should be paid to the US interest - rate cut rhythm and downstream restocking rhythm [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 3.34% and Shanghai nickel fell 4.48%. LME and SHFE inventories increased. Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota to support prices, but the actual quota implementation needs time. As prices rise rapidly, the production of primary nickel has increased by 18.5% month - on - month, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment and look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The macro - situation affects copper prices. The labor - market data and inflation expectations influence the Fed's interest - rate decision. The inventory changes in different markets and the slowdown in terminal demand due to high prices are key factors. An orderly adjustment is seen as positive for future trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of various aluminum products trended weakly overnight. The supply - side situation of alumina, including ore reserves, overhaul plans, and new - quarter agreements, affects the market. The news of industrial restructuring has an impact on market sentiment, and there are challenges to price increases [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The price decline is accompanied by inventory increases. Indonesia's policy to adjust the nickel quota is a significant factor. The increase in primary nickel production may lead to hedging pressure, and the market should focus on sentiment and cost - based buying opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper, waste - copper, and downstream products decreased. The inventory in LME decreased, while in SHFE and Comex it increased. The social inventory increased slightly, and the import loss widened [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of lead and related products decreased. The inventory in SHFE increased, and the import profit decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum products such as in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory in LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased. The import loss widened [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel products decreased, and the inventory in LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased. The import profit situation changed significantly [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.1%. The inventory in SHFE increased, while the social inventory decreased slightly. The import loss decreased [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.9%. The inventory in SHFE decreased, and the import loss increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: There are charts showing the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which help to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [13][12] - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2026, which are useful for understanding the term - structure of the futures market [14][18] - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, reflecting the supply situation in the international market [21][26] - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, indicating the supply situation in the domestic futures market [27][32] - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026, which can help analyze the overall market supply and demand [33][38] - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, copper roughing processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026, which are important for evaluating the profitability of the smelting industry [39][44] 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won many industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. Both have also won industry - recognized honors and provide high - quality research services [46][47]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals market is experiencing significant differentiation due to macroeconomic policies and supply-demand dynamics, with copper and zinc under pressure from weak demand, while aluminum shows signs of rebound, and nickel, tin, and lead are being re-evaluated due to supply changes [1]. Group 1: Copper - Copper prices are under pressure primarily due to weak demand, exacerbated by macroeconomic factors such as global stock market volatility and geopolitical risks [2]. - Supply disruptions, such as strikes in Chilean copper mines, provide some support, but actual consumption in China remains weak, leading to a slowdown in order growth and an accumulation of social inventory [2][3]. - Short-term outlook suggests continued high-level fluctuations in copper prices, with potential for long-term demand growth in emerging sectors like AI and electric vehicles, pending improvements in demand signals [2][3]. Group 2: Aluminum - The aluminum market faces pressure from macroeconomic disturbances, with conflicting employment data in the U.S. raising doubts about economic stability [3]. - Domestic demand is impacted by seasonal effects and environmental production limits, leading to a decline in operating rates among aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - Short-term aluminum prices may remain optimistic, but attention is needed on post-Spring Festival recovery expectations and macroeconomic stabilization [3]. Group 3: Zinc - The zinc market is dominated by bearish sentiment, with a strong U.S. dollar and declining global stock markets contributing to price drops [4]. - Weak demand persists, with downstream consumers only maintaining essential purchases, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [4]. - Short-term expectations indicate continued weak performance for zinc prices, with significant pressure around the 24,500 yuan/ton level [4]. Group 4: Lead - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with a strong dollar and stock market declines affecting risk appetite [5]. - Supply remains marginally loose due to stable primary lead production and increased imports, while demand from the lead-acid battery sector is weak [5]. - Short-term lead prices are expected to remain weak, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and overseas supply, although low inventory levels provide some support [5]. Group 5: Nickel - Nickel prices are under pressure from high inventory levels and weak demand in the stainless steel and new energy battery sectors [6]. - The market is currently experiencing a downward adjustment, with a need for new driving factors to support prices [6]. - Long-term balance in the nickel market will depend on the recovery of the stainless steel industry and the penetration rate of new energy applications [6]. Group 6: Tin - The tin market is seeing a shift in supply dynamics, with improved supply from Myanmar and no escalation in the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. - Demand is showing a split, with traditional electronics experiencing seasonal weakness, while new sectors are not compensating for this decline [7]. - Short-term tin prices may enter a phase of adjustment, with close monitoring of supply recovery and demand signals necessary [7]. Group 7: Market Strategy - The macroeconomic landscape requires attention to signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and economic data from China [8]. - In the industrial sector, strategies should focus on short-term fluctuations in copper and aluminum, while monitoring long-term demand and supply disruptions [10]. - For nickel and tin, caution is advised regarding high inventory levels and supply recovery expectations, with a focus on waiting for substantial demand improvements [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding. ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding. ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding. ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure and decline. ★ [1] - Tin: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Nickel: Under pressure and decline. ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish. ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish. ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment. ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals: Long - term and short - term factors are intertwined. The long - term logic for gold and silver is to go long, but short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as index rebalancing, margin hikes, and resource scarcity [1][2][4]. - Copper: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. In the long term, it is optimistic due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][6][7]. - Zinc: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. It is expected to fluctuate widely in January. Enterprises are advised to arrange short - hedging [1][9][10]. - Aluminum: In the short term, it is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory [1][13][14]. - Nickel: It is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate: It is in a high - level adjustment. Long - positions can take profits gradually on rallies [1][20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market performance**: Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels. SHFE gold decreased by 0.10% to 997.94, COMEX gold increased by 0.47% to 4488. SHFE silver decreased by 4.35% to 18450, COMEX silver decreased by 1.65% to 77 [2]. - **Influencing factors**: China's central bank continues to purchase gold. US employment data is mixed, and the service industry PMI is rising. The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index may cause selling pressure on gold and silver futures [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short - term support for silver is at 18000, and for gold is at 990. In 2026, the support for precious metals remains strong, and the long - term logic of going long remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market performance**: Copper is oscillating at high levels. The closing price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 1.61% to 100230 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industry logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates is continuously tight. The production of some mines is affected. The domestic electrolytic copper output in December is high, but it is expected to decline in January. High copper prices suppress demand, but new demand in some fields is strong [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [98500, 102500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13500] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market performance**: Zinc is falling back in oscillation. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 1.02% to 23800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industry logic**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has declined. The production of refined zinc in December decreased. The demand in some traditional fields is weak, but new - energy demand is growing [9]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. It is expected to fluctuate widely in January. Enterprises should arrange short - hedging. The range for SHFE zinc is [23500, 24000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3100, 3200] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: Aluminum prices are falling back under pressure. The closing price of LME aluminum decreased by 0.41% to 3071 dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 2.61% to 23725 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry logic**: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods is rising, and the downstream demand is weak. The alumina market is in surplus [13]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range of SHFE aluminum is [23000 - 24500] [14]. Nickel - **Market performance**: Nickel prices are falling back. The closing price of LME nickel decreased by 2.69% to 17180 dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract decreased by 7.64% to 136440 yuan/ton [15]. - **Industry logic**: Indonesia has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target in 2026. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [125000 - 145000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, hitting a new high during the session, and the gains narrowed at the end [19]. - **Industry logic**: The weekly output has increased slightly. The downstream demand provides support, but the production of some downstream factories is decreasing [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is operating at a high level in the range of [135000 - 150000] [21].