Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Shaanxi Black Cat reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in losses, marking the largest annual loss since its listing, with a net profit loss of 1.158 billion yuan [1][5]. Company Performance - Shaanxi Black Cat's revenue fell by 21.58% year-on-year, with a net profit loss expanding from 512 million yuan to 1.158 billion yuan [1]. - The company's Q1 2025 report showed a revenue of 2.585 billion yuan, down 37.31% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 261.6 million yuan, a 23.21% decline [1]. - The company's stock price dropped from a peak of 11.04 yuan in 2021 to around 3 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization reduction from over 20 billion yuan to approximately 6 billion yuan [1]. Business Background - Established in 2003, Shaanxi Black Cat primarily engages in coal coking and chemical product production, with key products including coke, methanol, and coal tar [1][3]. - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2014 and was the first private company in Weinan, Shaanxi [1]. Expansion and Challenges - Following a peak in 2021, the company aggressively expanded its coking projects in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, with a significant investment of 4.7 billion yuan in a 2 million-ton coking project in Xinjiang [5]. - The downturn in the coking industry, characterized by falling coke prices and reduced steel production, has severely impacted the company's financial health [5][7]. Financial Struggles - In 2024, the company recorded nearly 3 billion yuan in asset impairments, significantly affecting its net profit [5]. - The coke business saw a revenue decline of over 20%, with a negative gross margin of 17.12% [5][6]. - Despite a slight decrease in coke sales volume, the revenue drop indicates a substantial decline in product prices [6]. Product Diversification - The sales of by-products such as crude benzene and LNG have become a highlight, generating approximately 3.506 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 24.04% of total revenue [6]. - However, reliance on by-products for profitability is risky due to price volatility and unstable demand, failing to offset the decline in the main coke business [6]. Industry Context - The coking industry has entered a downturn since 2023, with significant impacts on profitability due to reduced steel demand and pricing pressures [7]. - The average price of coke has dropped over 30% from its peak in 2021, with capacity utilization rates remaining low [7]. - Future recovery in the coking industry is uncertain, with expectations of continued pressure on prices and profitability [7].

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月22日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 105 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 135 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3350 | 3350 | 0 | 265 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3101 | 3095 | 6 | 8d | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3061 | 3058 | 3 | 129 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3085 | 3083 | 2 | 105 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | 57 | | | 热卷现 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. Despite potential seasonal and export - related demand weaknesses, with the reduction of tariffs in May, terminal orders have improved, and steel exports remain high. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, with attention on support at previous lows. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The iron ore market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Although the high iron - water production keeps the inventory slightly decreasing, the expected increase in overseas mine shipments from May to June will intensify supply - demand pressure. However, improved macro - expectations may repair market sentiment [4]. - **Coke Industry**: The coke market is bearish. With steel mills reducing coke prices, the fundamental situation is unfavorable. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract when the price is high and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal Industry**: The coking coal market remains weak. Given the downward trend of coal prices and better fundamentals of finished products compared to coking coal, it is advisable to short the coking coal 2509 contract when the price is high and continue the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: The silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure has eased, and factory inventories are decreasing. However, overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. Demand is limited, and it is necessary to focus on subsequent export changes [7]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: The silicon manganese market maintains production cuts. Supply pressure is concentrated in certain regions, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices showed small increases. For example, the price of the rebar 05 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 3101 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained stable. The profit of hot - rolled coils in South China increased by 8 yuan/ton, while the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 22 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, while the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons to 868.4 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons to 1430.7 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons to 913.8 tons, an increase of 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons to 260.3 tons, an increase of 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures showed small changes. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 59.9 yuan/ton to 82.2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, while the weekly domestic arrival volume decreased by 83.3 tons to 2271.3 tons, a decline of 3.5% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 110.5 tons to 14055.63 tons, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coke 09 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1418 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly iron - water production decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 11.3 tons to 983.2 tons, a decline of 1.1% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coking coal 09 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 842 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal production increased by 2.8 tons to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei mines increased by 19.4 tons to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2% [6]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, with a production profit of - 118 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon iron production decreased by 0.9 tons to 9.4 tons, a decline of 9.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly silicon iron demand remained unchanged at 2.0 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons to 74 tons, a decline of 11.8% [7]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 5792 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 9.6 yuan/ton to 5768.5 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 10.4 yuan/ton to - 188.5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon manganese production decreased by 0.9 tons to 16.3 tons, a decline of 5.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon manganese demand remained unchanged at 12.6 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 2.5 tons to 20.7 tons, an increase of 13.9% [7].

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

| | | | 11 11 11 11 | SUIT FULUKES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月21日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆★ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面窄幅度荡。淡季来临课统表需波动下行，产量相对平稳，库存延续下降态势。热卷需求仍有韧烂,产量有所回落,库 存延续下降态势。铁水产量有所回落,整体仍处于高位,供应压力依然较大,没事终端承接能力有待观察。从下游行业看,内 需整体依依偏弱,制造业投资增速退步放缓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined, and the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4] - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive. The iron - water output has declined slightly this week, and the first - round price cut for coke spot has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude - steel production cuts and fiscal - policy stimulus, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak and sideways pattern [5] - In the short term, coal and coke are in a downward trend, but as the basis and spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. It is not cost - effective to chase short positions. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic coking - coal mine operating rates have declined slightly but remain at a high level for the year. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), with the daily average iron - water output at 244.77 tons (-0.87) [2][3] 2. Inventory - Upstream inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The refined - coal inventory of 523 mines is 410.45 million tons (+20.02), the refined - coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 203.26 million tons (+5.98), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.21 million tons (+4), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 752.56 million tons (-22.61), and the port inventory is 306.09 million tons (+8.28) [2] 3. Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 970 yuan/ton (-45), the active contract is 838.5 yuan/ton (-6.5), the basis is 151.5 yuan/ton (-38.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (-2) [1] Coke 1. Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average iron - water output is 244.77 tons (-0.87) [3] 2. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65.46 million tons (+0.37), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663.8 million tons (-7.23), and the port inventory is 225.11 million tons (-3.97) [3] 3. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1390 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1407.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), the basis is 88.37 yuan/ton (+20.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 30 yuan/ton (-3.5) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and improved demand expectations. It is approaching the seasonal off - season, and there is a possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to whether there is support at the previous low. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation in the short term. Although the iron ore inventory is slightly decreasing under high pig iron production, the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the macro - expectation improvement may bring sentiment repair [3]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. The supply side has improved production due to good orders, and the demand side shows a sign of peaking and falling. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is in a weak pattern, with the supply being relatively high and the demand likely to decline. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been significantly alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports [6]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline. Although the supply - demand gap is narrowing under production cuts, the cost and supply pressure still exist [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show minor changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%, with rebar and hot - rolled coils having a better de - stocking situation [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 09 - contract for various iron ore types increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 09 - contract for PB powder increased by 57.2 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 209.0% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 10.5% week - on - week, and the domestic arrival volume decreased by 3.5%. The pig iron production may decline slightly, but it is still expected to remain at a high level [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 45 ports decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0% [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coke 09 - contract decreased by 1.4%, and the 09 - basis increased by 21 yuan/ton. The coking profit increased by 85.7% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, with the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all showing a downward trend [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 09 - contract decreased by 0.8%, and the 09 - basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 4.3% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of raw coal and clean coal increased slightly, and the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3% [5]. Inventory Change - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei sample mines increased by 9.2%, the inventory of coking plants decreased by 3.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in some regions decreased slightly, and the SF - SM main - contract spread increased by 14 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.15%, and the demand remained stable [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [6]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferromanganese main - contract decreased by 1.1%, and the spread between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 66 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia remained the same [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, and the demand decreased slightly by 0.2% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: May 21, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report Key Points Summary Coke Price - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet - quenched coke is 1321.88, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 54.19, a monthly decrease of 54.19, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.54% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first wet - quenched coke is 1600.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.43% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry - quenched coke is 1515.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 35.26% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry - quenched coke is 1555.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 34.66% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1050.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 50.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 38.24% [2] Production and Utilization Rate - The blast furnace operating rate is 91.76, with a weekly decrease of 0.33, a monthly increase of 1.61, and a year - on - year increase of 4.67% [2] - The daily average pig iron output is 244.77, with a weekly decrease of 0.87, a monthly increase of 4.65, and a year - on - year increase of 3.33% [2] - The coking plant capacity utilization rate is 75.05, with a weekly decrease of 0.38, a monthly increase of 2.06, and a year - on - year increase of 4.29% [2] - The daily average coke output is 51.15, with a weekly increase of 0.30, a monthly increase of 0.35, and a year - on - year increase of 7.84% [2] Inventory - The coking plant inventory is 65.46, with a weekly increase of 0.37, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and a year - on - year increase of 65.51% [2] - The port inventory is 225.11, with a weekly decrease of 3.97, a monthly decrease of 20.99, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 663.80, with a weekly decrease of 7.23, a monthly decrease of 0.60, and a year - on - year increase of 19.04% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 12.01, with a weekly decrease of 0.09, a monthly decrease of 0.28, and a year - on - year increase of 11.72% [2] Futures Market - The latest price of futures contract 05 is 1475.5, with a daily decrease of 92.50, a weekly decrease of 110.00, a monthly decrease of 89.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 35.89% [2] - The latest price of futures contract 09 is 1419.5, with a daily decrease of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 46.00, a monthly decrease of 156.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 37.08% [2] - The latest price of futures contract 01 is 1446.5, with a daily decrease of 13.00, a weekly decrease of 49.00, a monthly decrease of 162.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 37.81% [2] - The 05 basis is 117.92, with a daily increase of 92.50, a weekly increase of 51.73, a monthly increase of 20.47, and a year - on - year increase of 41.94 [2] - The 09 basis is 173.92, with a daily increase of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 12.27, a monthly increase of 86.97, and a year - on - year increase of 52.44 [2] - The 01 basis is 146.92, with a daily increase of 13.00, a weekly decrease of 9.27, a monthly increase of 93.47, and a year - on - year increase of 95.44 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 29.00, with a daily increase of 79.50, a weekly increase of 61.00, a monthly decrease of 73.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 53.50 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 56.00, with a daily decrease of 80.00, a weekly decrease of 64.00, a monthly increase of 66.50, and a year - on - year increase of 10.50 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is - 27.00, with a daily increase of 0.50, a weekly increase of 3.00, a monthly increase of 6.50, and a year - on - year increase of 43.00 [2]

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月20日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张跃 | 基产 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 123 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3360 | -20 | 243 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3115 | 3126 | -11 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3069 | 3082 | -13 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3097 | 3107 | -10 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | ટેર | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].