证券研究报告 1H 利润表现靓丽，2H 拓店有望提速 港股通 2025 年 8 月 04 日│中国香港 餐饮 小菜园 (999 HK) 小菜园发布 1H25 正面盈利预告，公司预计 1H25 录得净利润 3.6-3.8 亿元 （vs1H24/2H24 净利润：2.8/3.0 亿元），对应同比增长 29%-36%，环比增 长约 20%-27%。面对复杂的市场环境，1H25 公司多措并举优化运营效率， 深化精细化管理，重视平衡收入规模增长与单店利润率提升，推动公司净利 润靓丽增长。考虑客单价同比基数较高，我们预计 1H25 同店销售增长或面 临一定挑战，得益于门店扩张，公司收入有望保持中高个位数同比增长。公 司凭借优秀的经营效率较好消化同店销售压力，净利润彰显韧性。展望长期， 公司菜品定位紧密贴合大众需求、抗潮流属性较强，外卖业务新增量有望增 厚同店收入；独特的激励机制支撑较高分红水平和稳健扩张，规模体量增大 有望进一步发挥成本费用端管控优势，巩固盈利能力。维持"买入"评级。 多措并举优化运营效率，单店人效、坪效稳步提升 1H25 公司利润端同比实现显著优化，我们认为主要系：1）公司品牌力持 续强化，向商场招商议 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，绿茶集团日前发布盈利预喜，预计今年上半年调整后净利润按年增38%至42%， 达2.47亿至2.54亿元，受21%至25%的收入增长及门店层面的盈利能力提升推动。花旗表示，绿茶作为 一家高增长的休闲中式餐厅营运商，其创新产品、亲民价格及吸引人的品牌形象，使该集团可在中国不 同层级城市的各个地区扩展零售店，新店快速实现收支平衡。 花旗又预测集团2025年、2026年净利润将年增29%、26%，受收入加速增长加速推动(2025年、2026年分 别为19%、21%，2024年为7%)，净开店数增加(2025年、2026年分别为150家、200家，2024年为105 家）。花旗对绿茶集团股份的目标价定为11.1港元，评级"买入"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the evolution of service consumption structure from survival-type to development investment-type and spiritual enjoyment-type, closely linked to economic development levels [1][6][29] - The report highlights that after reaching a GDP per capita of $10,000, service consumption accelerates, as evidenced by the U.S. and Japan, where service consumption as a percentage of total consumption significantly increased during this period [1][11][22] - The report suggests that China's service consumption structure is still lagging behind major developed countries, with service consumption accounting for approximately 37% of GDP in 2020, compared to over 60% in the U.S. and Japan [2][24][25] Group 2 - The internal transformation of consumption structure follows Maslow's hierarchy of needs, indicating a non-linear decline in survival-type consumption as economic growth progresses, with a notable trend towards "externalization" and "servicization" [2][13][14] - Development investment-type consumption, particularly in healthcare and education, has become increasingly important, with significant increases in spending observed in the U.S. and Japan from 1970 to 1990 [2][18] - The report identifies that cultural and entertainment consumption has risen significantly as disposable income increases, driven by factors such as increased leisure time and digital technology development [21][22] Group 3 - Recommendations include strengthening policy support for service consumption, expanding the range of covered service categories, and developing special funding plans to stimulate consumption in the service sector [3][29][30] - The report emphasizes the need to enhance the quality of supply in the restaurant, leisure, and entertainment sectors, and to promote the integration of healthcare with other service industries [3][29] - It also suggests improving the service consumption market monitoring system by incorporating big data tools and establishing real-time data platforms to better understand market dynamics [3][31]

7月31日下午，中国香港特区政府统计处公布预估数字显示，当地二季度GDP（本地生产总值）同比增长3.1%，高于市场预期的2.8%，亦比一季度经修订 后的3%升幅有所加快。 从整体来看，自2023年至今，中国香港特区GDP已连续10个季度录得增长。今年二季度这一稳健扩张的增长数字，被认为受益于多方面，包括但不限于港 股市场持续畅旺给当地消费带来的活力，以及"关税战"下当地"抢出口"给贸易带来的拉动作用等，均给今年上半年香港经济发展增添了韧性。 分大类来看，二季度当地GDP各主要部分表现均好于一季度，其中以私人消费开支表现最佳，在一季度下跌1.2%后，二季度成功扭转连续四个季度跌 势，同比实质上升1.9%。在此基础上，香港特区政府消费开支也同比上升2.5%（一季度为0.9%）。 就在前述预估数字公布前日，香港特区政府时隔数年后发布的《香港营商环境报告》则介绍了当地经济持续向好的多个方面。尤其以金融市场为例，今年 恒生指数已累计上涨超25%，上半年每日成交额约2400亿港元，上升120%。 "金融对香港GDP贡献超过两成。今年金融市场向好，股市及IPO（首次公开募股）畅旺，北水亦流入配置香港市场，成为GDP的推动力 ...

陈茂波指出，香港住宅物业楼价继续靠稳，租金表现强韧，交投量显著转趋活跃，第二季度每月平均成 交数字增至约5600宗，按季上升约37%。因应楼价回稳，上季度负资产宗数按季回落7%至37000多宗。 特区政府大力招商引资和招聚人才，增加了对整体楼宇的需求。住宅物业市场趋稳、金融市场蓬勃，加 上经济稳步向好、打工者收入实质增加，会为本地消费带来支持。与此同时，也必须继续对受影响群体 提供支持，包括加强就业支援和再培训等服务。 新华社香港8月3日电（记者孟佳）香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波3日发表网志表示，特区政府即将公 布第二季度食肆总收益，预计按年会有轻微增长。 特区政府统计数据显示，香港第二季度出口、本地消费和固定投资取得正增长，整体经济按年增长 3.1%，连续第十个季度正增长。零售销货价值在5月和6月重新录得轻微按年增长，第二季度微升 0.3%。 陈茂波表示，特区政府7月30日公布《香港营商环境报告》，以一系列事实和数据，系统地向社会各界 和海内外投资者介绍香港最新发展和优势，全方位说明香港开放、安全、稳定、高效和国际化的营商环 境。报告公布后，获得各界人士广泛认同和支持。这在当前复杂的地缘政治局势下别具意义， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "anti-involution" movement in various industries, emphasizing the need to shift from price wars to value-based competition, driven by recent government policies aimed at regulating low-price competition and promoting quality improvement [1][2]. Group 1: Government Policies - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the need to govern low-price disorderly competition legally and to guide companies towards enhancing product quality [1]. - Recent government meetings have provided clearer arrangements for addressing "involution," indicating a top-down approach to economic governance [1]. - The draft amendment to the pricing law includes provisions related to "anti-involution," addressing issues like low-price dumping and price collusion to establish a high-level pricing governance mechanism [1]. Group 2: Industry Response - Various industries, including automotive, photovoltaic, cement, steel, pharmaceuticals, finance, catering, e-commerce, and food delivery, are calling for "anti-involution," indicating a collective need to escape the constraints of low-price competition [2]. - The shift from "price for volume" to "quality enhancement" is seen as essential for industries as China moves towards high-quality economic development [2]. - Companies are encouraged to adopt long-term development strategies, with leading firms urged to take the initiative in resisting vicious competition and fostering a healthier market environment [2].

【硅基智能疑似回应全员裁员争议：目前有稳定的产研与销售团队】 8 月 3 日消息 ， 针对近日网传 " 全员裁员 " 的消息，硅基智能发布声明称， 2025 年将重点布局杭州、嘉兴、香港、新加坡等地， 预计全年新增岗位数百个， 2026 年将达到 新增数千人的扩张节奏，疑似辟谣该传闻。 根据网传截图，硅基智能创始人司马华鹏此前在工作群内 @ 所有人并表示： " 各位，昨天我去看研 发，只有徐超一个人在加班，公司今天已经做好了全员裁员的计划，算法给港科大和清华做，工程化 留几个骨干，其他的都自寻出路，硅基养不起这样的团队，请大家见谅。 " 【法拉第未来回应 " 抄袭长城 " 争议：与合作伙伴共同开发，不存在抄袭】 8 月 3 日消息，法拉第 未来 FF 全球总裁王佳伟 8 月 3 日回应 " 抄袭长城 " 争议。王佳伟表示： " 我们一直在说我们是和 中国的产业合作伙伴进行合作去做的这款车，不存在任何抄袭的情况，用我们的话说，四轻四快五聚 焦五赋能带来了独特的价值，独特的优势。 " 他说道： " 以产品的开发为例，做美国合规碰撞测 试，开发出符合美国当地人使用习惯的操作系统，这个是 FF 通过 10 年的经验、 ...

人民财讯8月4日电，中金公司（601995）研报称，2025年上半年现制茶饮/餐饮公司密集上市提高板块 效应，在消费环境尚待拐点情况下，具备自身增长动能的公司股价表现领先，也因此获得相对较高估值 水平，而其余部分与宏观周期相关度高的头部公司估值仍低于历史中枢。展望2025年下半年，看好在服 务消费享有自身成长和潜在政策促进的背景下，强内功综合性龙头和高成长性细分龙头的增长机遇。 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has recently halted its upward trend, with a warning from BTIG strategist Jonathan Krinsky about potential market volatility due to seasonal headwinds in early October [1] - The S&P 500 index closed below the 20-day moving average for the first time in weeks, indicating a possible risk of a rapid pullback, especially as it approached the 6100-point mark [1] - On the previous Friday, the S&P 500 index dropped approximately 1.6% to close at 6238.01 points, influenced by new tariffs from the Trump administration and unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - Krinsky identified five key observations for the August market, noting that the period from early August to early October is typically the weakest of the year, increasing the probability of a market pullback [2] - There is a divergence between software and semiconductor stocks, with the IGV index underperforming the semiconductor ETF (SMH.US) by about 17% since early May, but historical patterns suggest a potential mean reversion opportunity for software stocks [2] - The utilities sector continues to strengthen, with the SPDR Utilities Select Sector ETF (XLU.US) reaching a 52-week high, highlighting its defensive characteristics [2] - Homebuilders are benefiting from declining interest rates, and unless there is a significant economic downturn, the upward trend in this sector is expected to continue [2] - The restaurant and trucking sectors are under significant pressure, with several restaurant stocks failing to break previous highs during the summer and the trucking sector reaching new relative lows [2] Group 3 - Overall, Krinsky maintains a cautious yet opportunistic strategy, suggesting that while the S&P 500 may dip to 6100 points, historical patterns could provide a buying opportunity [3] - The recommendation is to tilt allocations towards software, utilities, and homebuilders while avoiding weak sectors such as restaurants and trucking [3]

中金研究 1H25现制茶饮/餐饮公司密集上市提高板块效应，在消费环境尚待拐点情况下，具备自身增长动能的公司股价表现领先，也因此获得相对较高估值水 平，而其余部分与宏观周期相关度高的头部公司估值仍低于历史中枢。展望2H25，我们看好在服务消费享有自身成长和潜在政策促进的背景下，强内 功综合性龙头和高成长性细分龙头的增长机遇。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 服务连锁正当其时：老框架和新问题。 在服务消费占比提升、支撑连锁业态发展的基础设施日渐完备的背景下，越来越多成规模连锁品牌涌现，蜜雪、 瑞幸跻身百亿美元市值亦是例证。我们认为具备产品、运营、品牌综合实力及能迅速迭代组织力的企业更有望胜出，并在面对潮流生命周期的困局时更有 望穿越周期。企业持续成长的驱动力主要包括产品店型模式创新（如瑞幸的饮料化产品和全在线运营模式、百胜的肯悦咖啡和必胜客WOW）、向下向上 扩容（如华住向下拓展下沉市场和亚朵向上升级产品）、出海与全球化（如蜜雪海外门店数占比已超10%）、新业态（如亚朵零售业务收入占比已达 30%）等。老框架中也演化出几个投资人针对现制饮品关注的新问题：我们在报告中具体对比了头部现制咖啡和茶饮品牌 ...